EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

PHI at WAS

Sunday, November 1 · 7:20 PM CST

PHI 21.3 — WAS 21.3

Nearly even · PHI 48.0%

Projected total 42.6 · Confidence: projected qb · limited input

PardonMe projects Nearly even.

PA-1 game simulations

The early projection is retained. No updated pregame simulation is available.

EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

Nov 1, 9:35:17 AM CST · 4,000 D4 simulations · regulation only

Projected scorePHI 21.3 — WAS 21.3
Expected total42.6
Regulation win probabilitiesPHI 48.0% · WAS 47.4%Tie 4.6%

Quarterbacks modeled

PHI Tanner McKee (canonical ID 2309) · PROJECTED · D4 capability -0.1480
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 1, 9:35:17 AM CST.

WAS Jayden Daniels (canonical ID 2848) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.0693
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 1, 9:35:17 AM CST.

Evidence and limitations

pa1-live-2026-v1.2 · code 6a49c346c23e3e09c2068a77f9b90265cebbea31 · model 10cc8c9d82bd9408994ef86d3fc80e7d3bd849fca69207399b0bb6ef21e93cca · record 963896ac01c42cee1f7586070e75948f9fa7f809e3d848370651ec9b583121f3

Evidence cutoff: Nov 1, 9:35:17 AM CST. Unknown availability stays unknown; a projected lineup is not a confirmed healthy lineup.

  • PHI: no verified-complete official inactive list (DESIGNATIONS_ONLY)
  • WAS: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • PHI: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • WAS: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • Projected from official depth order and known eligibility; no confirmed starter announcement required.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-11-01 15:25:40.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-11-01 15:25:39.
  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.
Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models — separate from the PA-1 game simulation. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

Tanner McKee · PHI

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Insufficient Evidence uncertainty

Jayden Daniels · WAS

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Running back ranges

Saquon Barkley · PHI

Opportunities
9.1 mean · 9.0 median · 0.0–17.0 80%
Carries
8.0 mean · 8.0 median · 0.0–15.0 80%
Targets
1.1 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Rushing yards
40 mean · 40 median · 0–75 80%
Receptions
0.9 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
7 mean · 0 median · 0–22 80%
Total TD
24% 1+
High

Jacory Croskey-Merritt · WAS

Opportunities
13.4 mean · 12.0 median · 8.0–20.0 80%
Carries
12.5 mean · 12.0 median · 7.0–19.0 80%
Targets
1.0 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
Rushing yards
54 mean · 48 median · 29–83 80%
Receptions
0.8 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
Receiving yards
6 mean · 0 median · 0–15 80%
Total TD
37% 1+
Medium

Rachaad White · WAS

Opportunities
11.7 mean · 10.0 median · 7.0–16.0 80%
Carries
8.4 mean · 8.0 median · 4.0–13.0 80%
Targets
3.3 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Rushing yards
37 mean · 33 median · 18–60 80%
Receptions
2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
16 mean · 14 median · 0–30 80%
Total TD
28% 1+
High

Receiver and tight end ranges

Dallas Goedert · PHI · TE

Targets
5.5 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.9 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
40 mean · 43 median · 12–73 80%
Receiving TD
27% 1+
High

Johnny Mundt · PHI · TE

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

Darius Cooper · PHI · WR

Targets
4.9 mean · 4.0 median · 3.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
2.6 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
34 mean · 24 median · 10–64 80%
Receiving TD
25% 1+
Medium

DeVonta Smith · PHI · WR

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

Dontayvion Wicks · PHI · WR

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

John Bates · WAS · TE

Targets
2.6 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
Receptions
1.8 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
17 mean · 16 median · 7–34 80%
Receiving TD
15% 1+
High

Chig Okonkwo · WAS · TE

Targets
5.0 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
3.5 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
36 mean · 33 median · 12–63 80%
Receiving TD
21% 1+
High

Treylon Burks · WAS · WR

Targets
4.1 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
32 mean · 28 median · 13–56 80%
Receiving TD
23% 1+
High

Terry McLaurin · WAS · WR

Targets
5.5 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
4.0 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
61 mean · 60 median · 16–105 80%
Receiving TD
29% 1+
High

Stefon Diggs · WAS · WR

Targets
7.1 mean · 7.0 median · 4.0–11.0 80%
Receptions
5.4 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receiving yards
63 mean · 60 median · 25–105 80%
Receiving TD
34% 1+
High

10 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Other PardonMe models (comparison)

The PA-1 simulation above is the forecast of record. These earlier models are kept for comparison and are not combined with it.

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

PHI 20.3 — WAS 22.7

WAS · 53.3% win probability

Margin
WAS 2.4
Total
43.1

As of Oct 28, 2026 04:11 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

PHIWeek 8 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Expected lineup needs a current update.

RB: Expected lineup needs a current update.

TE: Expected lineup needs a current update.

WR: Expected lineup needs a current update.

WR: Expected lineup needs a current update.

WR: Expected lineup needs a current update.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Tanner McKee · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Cole Payton · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Saquon Barkley · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Dameon Pierce · Released

TE official #1 — Dallas Goedert · Full

TE official #2 — Johnny Mundt · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — DeVonta Smith · Out

WR official #2 — Hollywood Brown · Did not participate

WR official #1 — Dontayvion Wicks · Out

WR official #2 — Darius Cooper · Full

WR official #1 — Makai Lemon · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Elijah Moore · Availability unknown

WR official #3 — Britain Covey · Out

WASWeek 8 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Jayden Daniels · Full

QB official #2 — Marcus Mariota · Full

QB official #3 — Athan Kaliakmanis · Current status: Transaction Effective

RB official #1 — Jacory Croskey-Merritt · Out

RB official #2 — Rachaad White · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — Player 3694 · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — John Bates · Did not participate

TE official #2 — Colson Yankoff · Full

TE official #1 — Chig Okonkwo · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Ben Sinnott · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Dyami Brown · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Antonio Williams · Current status: Transaction Effective

WR official #3 — Luke McCaffrey · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Terry McLaurin · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Treylon Burks · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Stefon Diggs · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Jaylin Lane · Availability unknown

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonPHIWAS
Projected points21.321.3
Win probability (regulation)48.0%47.4%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status70 updates60 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 157 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 32 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

PHI recent scoring form vs WAS prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 17.3; opponent allowed 26.7.

WAS recent scoring form vs PHI prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 19.0; opponent allowed 27.3.