UPDATED PREGAME SIMULATION

CHI at SEA

Monday, November 2 · 7:15 PM CST

CHI 16.6 — SEA 22.7

SEA edge · SEA 66.4%

Projected total 39.3 · Confidence: projected qb · limited input

PardonMe projects SEA edge.

PA-1 game simulations

UPDATED PREGAME SIMULATION

Nov 2, 6:17:28 PM CST · 4,000 D4 simulations · regulation only

Projected scoreCHI 16.6 — SEA 22.7
Expected total39.3
Regulation win probabilitiesCHI 29.1% · SEA 66.4%Tie 4.5%

Quarterbacks modeled

CHI Caleb Williams (canonical ID 499) · PROJECTED · D4 capability -0.1732
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 2, 6:15:00 PM CST.

SEA Sam Darnold (canonical ID 2571) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.0619
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 2, 6:15:00 PM CST.

Evidence and limitations

pa1-live-2026-v1.2 · code 6a49c346c23e3e09c2068a77f9b90265cebbea31 · model 10cc8c9d82bd9408994ef86d3fc80e7d3bd849fca69207399b0bb6ef21e93cca · record 0e31ac4a210a824430635b69021e7702a604d1a8b3d16a7c970bc1ae63ac146d

Evidence cutoff: Nov 2, 6:15:00 PM CST. Unknown availability stays unknown; a projected lineup is not a confirmed healthy lineup.

  • CHI: no verified-complete official inactive list (DESIGNATIONS_ONLY)
  • SEA: no verified-complete official inactive list (DESIGNATIONS_ONLY)
  • CHI: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • SEA: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • Projected from official depth order and known eligibility; no confirmed starter announcement required.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-11-03 00:09:58.
  • Current official injury report completeness unproven; absence is not a healthy designation.
  • QB news scan contains an unresolved warning; depth-based projection is conditional, not confirmed.
  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.

EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

Nov 1, 9:35:52 AM CST · 4,000 D4 simulations · regulation only

Projected scoreCHI 16.6 — SEA 22.7
Expected total39.3
Regulation win probabilitiesCHI 29.1% · SEA 66.4%Tie 4.5%

Quarterbacks modeled

CHI Caleb Williams (canonical ID 499) · PROJECTED · D4 capability -0.1732
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 1, 9:35:52 AM CST.

SEA Sam Darnold (canonical ID 2571) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.0619
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 1, 9:35:52 AM CST.

Evidence and limitations

pa1-live-2026-v1.2 · code 6a49c346c23e3e09c2068a77f9b90265cebbea31 · model 10cc8c9d82bd9408994ef86d3fc80e7d3bd849fca69207399b0bb6ef21e93cca · record 6f61b41ebf11690901d3cdf544523fd6094d47bbdac0da229fd8301723ea7542

Evidence cutoff: Nov 1, 9:35:52 AM CST. Unknown availability stays unknown; a projected lineup is not a confirmed healthy lineup.

  • CHI: no verified-complete official inactive list (DESIGNATIONS_ONLY)
  • SEA: no verified-complete official inactive list (DESIGNATIONS_ONLY)
  • CHI: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • SEA: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • Projected from official depth order and known eligibility; no confirmed starter announcement required.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-11-01 15:21:21.
  • Current official injury report completeness unproven; absence is not a healthy designation.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-11-01 15:21:18.
  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.

Change from early to updated: total +0.0 points; home win probability +0.0 percentage points. Both original records remain available above.

Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models — separate from the PA-1 game simulation. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

Caleb Williams · CHI

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Sam Darnold · SEA

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Running back ranges

Kyle Monangai · CHI

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium

D'Andre Swift · CHI

Opportunities
18.3 mean · 18.0 median · 12.0–25.0 80%
Carries
14.9 mean · 15.0 median · 9.0–21.0 80%
Targets
3.4 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Rushing yards
58 mean · 57 median · 31–87 80%
Receptions
2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
16 mean · 15 median · 0–33 80%
Total TD
44% 1+
High

George Holani · SEA

Opportunities
8.5 mean · 7.0 median · 4.0–16.0 80%
Carries
6.1 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–12.0 80%
Targets
2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Rushing yards
30 mean · 25 median · 15–53 80%
Receptions
1.8 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
13 mean · 10 median · 0–30 80%
Total TD
26% 1+
Medium

Emanuel Wilson · SEA

Opportunities
17.0 mean · 15.0 median · 8.0–25.0 80%
Carries
15.5 mean · 15.0 median · 8.0–24.0 80%
Targets
1.4 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Rushing yards
57 mean · 53 median · 24–93 80%
Receptions
1.2 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
10 mean · 8 median · 0–24 80%
Total TD
39% 1+
Medium

Receiver and tight end ranges

Cole Kmet · CHI · TE

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

Colston Loveland · CHI · TE

Targets
5.6 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–11.0 80%
Receptions
3.7 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
Receiving yards
39 mean · 34 median · 13–77 80%
Receiving TD
24% 1+
Medium

Luther Burden III · CHI · WR

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium

Rome Odunze · CHI · WR

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

Jahdae Walker · CHI · WR

Targets
2.0 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receptions
1.2 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
16 mean · 5 median · 0–42 80%
Receiving TD
18% 1+
Medium

AJ Barner · SEA · TE

Targets
4.5 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
2.9 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
29 mean · 30 median · 10–51 80%
Receiving TD
19% 1+
High

Eric Saubert · SEA · TE

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

Irv Charles · SEA · WR

Targets
1.4 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
0.9 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
12 mean · 0 median · 0–48 80%
Receiving TD
7% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Cooper Kupp · SEA · WR

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

Jaxon Smith-Njigba · SEA · WR

Targets
10.0 mean · 11.0 median · 6.0–14.0 80%
Receptions
7.6 mean · 8.0 median · 4.0–11.0 80%
Receiving yards
105 mean · 104 median · 48–159 80%
Receiving TD
54% 1+
High

8 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Other PardonMe models (comparison)

The PA-1 simulation above is the forecast of record. These earlier models are kept for comparison and are not combined with it.

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

CHI 20.7 — SEA 23.8

SEA · 54.7% win probability

Margin
SEA 3.1
Total
44.5

As of Oct 28, 2026 04:11 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

CHIWeek 8 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Caleb Williams · Questionable

QB official #2 — Tyson Bagent · Availability unknown

QB official #3 — Case Keenum · Current status: Transaction Effective

RB official #1 — D'Andre Swift · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Kyle Monangai · Out

RB official #3 — Roschon Johnson · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Colston Loveland · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Sam Roush · Current status: Transaction Effective

WR official #1 — Luther Burden III · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Jahdae Walker · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Rome Odunze · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Zavion Thomas · Current status: Transaction Effective

WR official #1 — Kalif Raymond · Current status: Transaction Effective

SEAWeek 8 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Expected lineup needs a current update.

RB: Expected lineup needs a current update.

TE: Expected lineup needs a current update.

WR: Expected lineup needs a current update.

WR: Expected lineup needs a current update.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Sam Darnold · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Drew Lock · Questionable

QB official #3 — Jalen Milroe · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Zach Charbonnet · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Emanuel Wilson · Current status: Transaction Effective

RB official #3 — George Holani · Full

RB official #4 — Velus Jones Jr. · Out

RB official #5 — Robert Henry Jr. · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — AJ Barner · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Eric Saubert · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — Nick Kallerup · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Jaxon Smith-Njigba · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Tory Horton · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Cooper Kupp · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Rashid Shaheed · Out

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonCHISEA
Projected points16.622.7
Win probability (regulation)29.1%66.4%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status77 updates46 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 138 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 42 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

CHI recent scoring form vs SEA prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 22.7; opponent allowed 17.3.

SEA recent scoring form vs CHI prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 21.0; opponent allowed 26.0.