UPDATED PREGAME SIMULATION

JAX at BAL

Thursday, November 5 · 7:15 PM CST

JAX 24.5 — BAL 19.0

JAX edge · JAX 63.6%

Projected total 43.5 · Confidence: projected qb · limited input

PardonMe projects JAX edge.

PA-1 game simulations

UPDATED PREGAME SIMULATION

Nov 4, 10:12:34 AM CST · 4,000 D4 simulations · regulation only

Projected scoreJAX 24.5 — BAL 19.0
Expected total43.5
Regulation win probabilitiesJAX 63.6% · BAL 32.3%Tie 4.1%

Quarterbacks modeled

BAL Joe Fagnano (canonical ID 193) · CONFIRMED · D4 capability -0.1656
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 4, 10:12:34 AM CST.

JAX Trevor Lawrence (canonical ID 1298) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.1312
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 4, 10:12:34 AM CST.

Evidence and limitations

pa1-live-2026-v1.2 · code b668552219d54ed8f55b67869a53876e7f138d55 · model 1f046faa41fbfd51e7a438d974f77f2067f52157aef5aa4c597d9e167fdb7c1b · record 3367418e62aeec2dfc36ab656f0a420142be8dbc9b16a39bb6a10a3159beddb6

Evidence cutoff: Nov 4, 10:12:34 AM CST. Unknown availability stays unknown; a projected lineup is not a confirmed healthy lineup.

  • BAL: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • JAX: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • JAX: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • Newer official depth chart names a different quarterback than the previous game; the chart is used and the previous starter is run as a separate scenario.
  • Current official injury report completeness unproven; absence is not a healthy designation.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-11-04 15:20:38.
  • Projected from official depth order and known eligibility; no confirmed starter announcement required.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-11-04 15:20:39.
  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.

EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

Nov 3, 1:22:35 AM CST · 4,000 D4 simulations · regulation only

Projected scoreJAX 24.6 — BAL 19.8
Expected total44.4
Regulation win probabilitiesJAX 61.9% · BAL 34.3%Tie 3.9%

Quarterbacks modeled

BAL Lamar Jackson (canonical ID 202) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.7376
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 3, 1:22:35 AM CST.

JAX Trevor Lawrence (canonical ID 1298) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.1313
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 3, 1:22:35 AM CST.

Evidence and limitations

pa1-live-2026-v1.2 · code 6a49c346c23e3e09c2068a77f9b90265cebbea31 · model 1f046faa41fbfd51e7a438d974f77f2067f52157aef5aa4c597d9e167fdb7c1b · record 735d239ad5235aac6d999e1712d9bb1bdf51a1326b96db3ca4befebddb6fbd24

Evidence cutoff: Nov 3, 1:22:35 AM CST. Unknown availability stays unknown; a projected lineup is not a confirmed healthy lineup.

  • BAL: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • JAX: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • BAL: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • JAX: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • Current official injury report completeness unproven; absence is not a healthy designation.
  • Projected from official depth order and known eligibility; no confirmed starter announcement required.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-11-03 07:20:36.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-11-03 07:20:37.
  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.

Change from early to updated: total -0.8 points; home win probability -1.9 percentage points. Both original records remain available above.

Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models — separate from the PA-1 game simulation. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

Lamar Jackson · BAL

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Trevor Lawrence · JAX

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Running back ranges

Derrick Henry · BAL

Opportunities
19.3 mean · 19.0 median · 10.0–27.0 80%
Carries
18.1 mean · 18.0 median · 9.0–26.0 80%
Targets
1.3 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Rushing yards
81 mean · 77 median · 37–128 80%
Receptions
1.0 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
8 mean · 6 median · 0–21 80%
Total TD
50% 1+
High

Justice Hill · BAL

Opportunities
8.1 mean · 7.0 median · 4.0–14.0 80%
Carries
3.8 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
Targets
4.4 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
Rushing yards
31 mean · 24 median · 10–61 80%
Receptions
3.1 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
22 mean · 19 median · 7–42 80%
Total TD
27% 1+
High

Ameer Abdullah · JAX

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

Chris Rodriguez Jr. · JAX

Opportunities
7.6 mean · 7.0 median · 2.0–14.0 80%
Carries
7.0 mean · 6.0 median · 2.0–13.0 80%
Targets
0.6 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
Rushing yards
37 mean · 32 median · 14–67 80%
Receptions
0.5 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
Receiving yards
4 mean · 0 median · 0–15 80%
Total TD
28% 1+
Medium

Receiver and tight end ranges

Mark Andrews · BAL · TE

Targets
4.3 mean · 4.0 median · 3.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
26 mean · 25 median · 9–42 80%
Receiving TD
18% 1+
High

Josh Cuevas · BAL · TE

Targets
2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receptions
1.9 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
25 mean · 24 median · 0–48 80%
Receiving TD
15% 1+
Medium

Rashod Bateman · BAL · WR

Targets
5.6 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–10.0 80%
Receptions
3.1 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
44 mean · 41 median · 13–82 80%
Receiving TD
20% 1+
High

Zay Flowers · BAL · WR

Targets
9.6 mean · 9.0 median · 7.0–13.0 80%
Receptions
6.8 mean · 7.0 median · 4.0–10.0 80%
Receiving yards
104 mean · 97 median · 52–159 80%
Receiving TD
45% 1+
High

Devontez Walker · BAL · WR

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium

Nate Boerkircher · JAX · TE

Targets
1.9 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
Receptions
1.4 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
15 mean · 10 median · 0–31 80%
Receiving TD
11% 1+
Medium

Brenton Strange · JAX · TE

Targets
4.8 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
3.7 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
43 mean · 46 median · 13–70 80%
Receiving TD
23% 1+
High

Jakobi Meyers · JAX · WR

Targets
5.6 mean · 6.0 median · 1.0–10.0 80%
Receptions
3.7 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
45 mean · 37 median · 12–84 80%
Receiving TD
23% 1+
High

Brian Thomas Jr. · JAX · WR

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

CJ Williams · JAX · WR

Targets
4.8 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–10.0 80%
Receptions
3.0 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
38 mean · 25 median · 13–76 80%
Receiving TD
21% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

10 individualized projections · 1 baseline projection. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Other PardonMe models (comparison)

The PA-1 simulation above is the forecast of record. These earlier models are kept for comparison and are not combined with it.

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

JAX 25.1 — BAL 19.3

JAX · 69.5% win probability

Margin
JAX 5.8
Total
44.5

As of Nov 3, 2026 11:36 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

JAXWeek 9 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Official depth order is ambiguous.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Trevor Lawrence · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Quinn Ewers · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Chris Rodriguez Jr. · Limited

RB official #1 — Bhayshul Tuten · Questionable

RB official #2 — LeQuint Allen Jr. · Limited

RB official #3 — Ameer Abdullah · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Brenton Strange · Full

TE official #2 — Nate Boerkircher · Limited

TE official #3 — Quintin Morris · Availability unknown

TE official #4 — Tanner Koziol · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Jakobi Meyers · Limited

WR official #2 — CJ Williams · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Brian Thomas Jr. · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Travis Hunter · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Parker Washington · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Josh Cameron · Availability unknown

BALWeek 9 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Official depth is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Joe Fagnano · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Derrick Henry · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Justice Hill · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — Rasheen Ali · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Nick Vannett · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Mark Andrews · Full

TE official #2 — Josh Cuevas · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Zay Flowers · Limited

WR official #2 — Devontez Walker · Availability unknown

WR official #3 — Elijah Sarratt · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Rashod Bateman · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Ja'Kobi Lane · Questionable

WR official #3 — LaJohntay Wester · Availability unknown

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonJAXBAL
Projected points24.519.0
Win probability (regulation)63.6%32.3%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status23 updates56 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 125 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 42 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

BAL recent scoring form vs JAX prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 11.0; opponent allowed 19.3.

JAX recent scoring form vs BAL prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 30.7; opponent allowed 28.0.