EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

CIN at ATL

Sunday, November 8 · 8:30 AM CST

CIN 22.9 — ATL 23.5

Nearly even · ATL 49.3%

Projected total 46.4 · Confidence: projected qb · limited input

PardonMe projects Nearly even.

PA-1 game simulations

The early projection is retained. No updated pregame simulation is available.

EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

Nov 3, 1:23:06 AM CST · 4,000 D4 simulations · regulation only

Projected scoreCIN 22.9 — ATL 23.5
Expected total46.4
Regulation win probabilitiesCIN 46.1% · ATL 49.3%Tie 4.7%

Quarterbacks modeled

ATL Michael Penix Jr. (canonical ID 118) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.6729
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 3, 1:23:06 AM CST.

CIN Joe Burrow (canonical ID 557) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.2838
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 3, 1:23:06 AM CST.

Evidence and limitations

pa1-live-2026-v1.2 · code 6a49c346c23e3e09c2068a77f9b90265cebbea31 · model 1f046faa41fbfd51e7a438d974f77f2067f52157aef5aa4c597d9e167fdb7c1b · record f217178c43c67c907def2db8dbcb6738774d2dc86b6d409fd298ae99e8e6fb06

Evidence cutoff: Nov 3, 1:23:06 AM CST. Unknown availability stays unknown; a projected lineup is not a confirmed healthy lineup.

  • ATL: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • CIN: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • ATL: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • CIN: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • Current official injury report completeness unproven; absence is not a healthy designation.
  • Projected from official depth order and known eligibility; no confirmed starter announcement required.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-11-01 16:54:59.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-11-01 16:55:00.
  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.
Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models — separate from the PA-1 game simulation. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

Tua Tagovailoa · ATL

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Joe Burrow · CIN

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Running back ranges

Bijan Robinson · ATL

Opportunities
21.0 mean · 21.0 median · 10.0–30.0 80%
Carries
16.4 mean · 17.0 median · 8.0–24.0 80%
Targets
4.6 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
Rushing yards
71 mean · 70 median · 25–115 80%
Receptions
3.1 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
24 mean · 23 median · 5–46 80%
Total TD
43% 1+
High

Chase Brown · CIN

Opportunities
12.4 mean · 13.0 median · 6.0–19.0 80%
Carries
9.0 mean · 9.0 median · 4.0–14.0 80%
Targets
3.3 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Rushing yards
33 mean · 32 median · 11–54 80%
Receptions
2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
17 mean · 15 median · 0–34 80%
Total TD
32% 1+
High

Samaje Perine · CIN

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

Receiver and tight end ranges

Kyle Pitts Sr. · ATL · TE

Targets
4.0 mean · 4.0 median · 0.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
3.1 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
33 mean · 23 median · 0–74 80%
Receiving TD
23% 1+
High

Charlie Woerner · ATL · TE

Targets
2.7 mean · 2.0 median · 2.0–4.0 80%
Receptions
1.7 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
14 mean · 16 median · 0–25 80%
Receiving TD
13% 1+
Medium

Jahan Dotson · ATL · WR

Targets
5.0 mean · 4.0 median · 3.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
2.6 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
44 mean · 35 median · 17–68 80%
Receiving TD
22% 1+
High

Drake London · ATL · WR

Targets
8.5 mean · 9.0 median · 4.0–12.0 80%
Receptions
5.3 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receiving yards
80 mean · 80 median · 35–126 80%
Receiving TD
28% 1+
High

Olamide Zaccheaus · ATL · WR

Targets
2.6 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receptions
1.3 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
11 mean · 7 median · 0–26 80%
Receiving TD
12% 1+
High

Mike Gesicki · CIN · TE

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

Drew Sample · CIN · TE

Targets
2.7 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
Receptions
2.2 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
18 mean · 15 median · 6–30 80%
Receiving TD
15% 1+
High

Ja'Marr Chase · CIN · WR

Targets
7.4 mean · 8.0 median · 2.0–14.0 80%
Receptions
5.1 mean · 5.0 median · 1.0–9.0 80%
Receiving yards
60 mean · 62 median · 16–108 80%
Receiving TD
38% 1+
High

Tee Higgins · CIN · WR

Targets
7.8 mean · 7.0 median · 3.0–12.0 80%
Receptions
5.2 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receiving yards
78 mean · 76 median · 31–136 80%
Receiving TD
40% 1+
High

Andrei Iosivas · CIN · WR

Targets
3.4 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
2.0 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
24 mean · 21 median · 0–57 80%
Receiving TD
15% 1+
High

11 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Other PardonMe models (comparison)

The PA-1 simulation above is the forecast of record. These earlier models are kept for comparison and are not combined with it.

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

CIN 25.0 — ATL 21.3

CIN · 65.5% win probability

Margin
CIN 3.7
Total
46.3

As of Nov 3, 2026 11:36 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

CINWeek 9 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

HB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

HB official #1 — Chase Brown · Availability unknown

HB official #2 — Samaje Perine · Availability unknown

HB official #3 — Tahj Brooks · Availability unknown

QB official #1 — Joe Burrow · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Joe Flacco · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Drew Sample · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Mike Gesicki · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — Jack Endries · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Ja'Marr Chase · Questionable

WR official #1 — Dohnte Meyers · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Tee Higgins · Questionable

WR official #2 — Colbie Young · Questionable

ATLWeek 9 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Michael Penix Jr. · Full

QB official #2 — Tua Tagovailoa · Inactive for Week 2

QB official #3 — Andy Dalton · Inactive for Week 7

QB official #4 — Jack Strand · Inactive for Week 6

RB official #1 — Bijan Robinson · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Brian Robinson Jr. · Inactive for Week 7

TE official #1 — Kyle Pitts Sr. · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Austin Hooper · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Charlie Woerner · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Nick Muse · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Olamide Zaccheaus · Questionable

WR official #2 — Zachariah Branch · Out

WR official #1 — Jahan Dotson · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Drake London · Limited

WR official #2 — Chris Blair · Practice squad

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonCINATL
Projected points22.923.5
Win probability (regulation)46.1%49.3%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status37 updates43 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 137 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 50 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

CIN recent scoring form vs ATL prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 36.3; opponent allowed 22.3.

ATL recent scoring form vs CIN prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 17.3; opponent allowed 24.3.