EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

DAL at IND

Sunday, November 8 · 12:00 PM CST

DAL 26.7 — IND 24.9

DAL slight edge · DAL 54.0%

Projected total 51.6 · Confidence: projected qb · limited input

PardonMe projects DAL slight edge.

PA-1 game simulations

The early projection is retained. No updated pregame simulation is available.

EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

Nov 3, 1:23:35 AM CST · 4,000 D4 simulations · regulation only

Projected scoreDAL 26.7 — IND 24.9
Expected total51.6
Regulation win probabilitiesDAL 54.0% · IND 41.9%Tie 4.1%

Quarterbacks modeled

DAL Dak Prescott (canonical ID 759) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.5303
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 3, 1:23:35 AM CST.

IND Daniel Jones (canonical ID 1201) · PROJECTED · D4 capability -0.4814
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 3, 1:23:35 AM CST.

Evidence and limitations

pa1-live-2026-v1.2 · code 6a49c346c23e3e09c2068a77f9b90265cebbea31 · model 1f046faa41fbfd51e7a438d974f77f2067f52157aef5aa4c597d9e167fdb7c1b · record 1e94667532105a6c7e67bc720c3c19bec734ff7b4627f0f2b1055e17698fbfe8

Evidence cutoff: Nov 3, 1:23:35 AM CST. Unknown availability stays unknown; a projected lineup is not a confirmed healthy lineup.

  • DAL: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • IND: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • DAL: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • IND: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • Current official injury report completeness unproven; absence is not a healthy designation.
  • Projected from official depth order and known eligibility; no confirmed starter announcement required.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-11-01 16:55:00.
  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.
Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models — separate from the PA-1 game simulation. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

Dak Prescott · DAL

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Daniel Jones · IND

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Running back ranges

Javonte Williams · DAL

Opportunities
19.5 mean · 18.0 median · 13.0–27.0 80%
Carries
16.5 mean · 16.0 median · 11.0–23.0 80%
Targets
3.1 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Rushing yards
61 mean · 57 median · 34–92 80%
Receptions
2.1 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
14 mean · 13 median · 0–28 80%
Total TD
47% 1+
High

Emari Demercado · DAL

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium

DJ Giddens · IND

Opportunities
11.2 mean · 9.0 median · 6.0–20.0 80%
Carries
10.0 mean · 8.0 median · 5.0–18.0 80%
Targets
1.2 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Rushing yards
50 mean · 43 median · 26–86 80%
Receptions
1.0 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
9 mean · 7 median · 0–22 80%
Total TD
32% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Jonathan Taylor · IND

Opportunities
21.1 mean · 22.0 median · 13.0–29.0 80%
Carries
17.3 mean · 18.0 median · 9.0–24.0 80%
Targets
3.8 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Rushing yards
66 mean · 66 median · 34–96 80%
Receptions
2.7 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
21 mean · 19 median · 6–39 80%
Total TD
49% 1+
High

Receiver and tight end ranges

Jake Ferguson · DAL · TE

Targets
3.6 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
2.8 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
24 mean · 24 median · 7–40 80%
Receiving TD
24% 1+
High

Brevyn Spann-Ford · DAL · TE

Targets
2.9 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
1.7 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
16 mean · 9 median · 0–38 80%
Receiving TD
11% 1+
Medium

Ryan Flournoy · DAL · WR

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium

CeeDee Lamb · DAL · WR

Targets
9.2 mean · 9.0 median · 2.0–18.0 80%
Receptions
6.4 mean · 6.0 median · 1.0–12.0 80%
Receiving yards
76 mean · 76 median · 18–137 80%
Receiving TD
39% 1+
High

George Pickens · DAL · WR

Targets
6.5 mean · 6.0 median · 3.0–11.0 80%
Receptions
4.3 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
Receiving yards
61 mean · 58 median · 15–115 80%
Receiving TD
26% 1+
High

Mo Alie-Cox · IND · TE

Targets
1.5 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receptions
1.1 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
Receiving yards
11 mean · 8 median · 0–26 80%
Receiving TD
11% 1+
High

Tyler Warren · IND · TE

Targets
7.7 mean · 7.0 median · 5.0–11.0 80%
Receptions
5.2 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receiving yards
41 mean · 41 median · 18–63 80%
Receiving TD
31% 1+
Medium

Josh Downs · IND · WR

Targets
6.0 mean · 5.0 median · 4.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.7 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
44 mean · 37 median · 14–72 80%
Receiving TD
21% 1+
High

Alec Pierce · IND · WR

Targets
4.4 mean · 4.0 median · 0.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
2.9 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
58 mean · 58 median · 0–115 80%
Receiving TD
30% 1+
High

Keenan Allen · IND · WR

Targets
6.1 mean · 6.0 median · 2.0–11.0 80%
Receptions
4.5 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receiving yards
42 mean · 38 median · 20–74 80%
Receiving TD
20% 1+
High

12 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Other PardonMe models (comparison)

The PA-1 simulation above is the forecast of record. These earlier models are kept for comparison and are not combined with it.

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

DAL 23.1 — IND 20.3

DAL · 62.3% win probability

Margin
DAL 2.7
Total
43.4

As of Nov 3, 2026 11:36 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

DALWeek 9 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Official depth order is ambiguous.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Dak Prescott · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Sam Howell · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Javonte Williams · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Tyler Goodson · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Jake Ferguson · Questionable

TE official #1 — Brevyn Spann-Ford · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Luke Schoonmaker · Questionable

WR official #1 — George Pickens · Questionable

WR official #2 — Camden Brown · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — CeeDee Lamb · Full

WR official #2 — Jonathan Mingo · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Ryan Flournoy · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — KaVontae Turpin · Out

INDWeek 9 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Daniel Jones · Full

RB official #1 — Jonathan Taylor · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Seth McGowan · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — DJ Giddens · Inactive for Week 2

TE official #1 — Tyler Warren · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Mo Alie-Cox · Did not participate

TE official #3 — Drew Ogletree · Availability unknown

TE official #4 — Player 1204 · Did not participate

TE official #4 — Pharaoh Brown · Inactive for Week 8

WR official #1 — Laquon Treadwell · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Josh Downs · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Anthony Gould · Full

WR official #1 — Keenan Allen · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Ashton Dulin · Availability unknown

WR official #3 — Deion Burks · Availability unknown

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonDALIND
Projected points26.724.9
Win probability (regulation)54.0%41.9%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status28 updates30 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 140 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 48 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

IND recent scoring form vs DAL prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 12.3; opponent allowed 25.7.

DAL recent scoring form vs IND prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 27.0; opponent allowed 28.0.