EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

NYJ at KC

Sunday, November 8 · 12:00 PM CST

NYJ 18.9 — KC 28.1

KC clear edge · KC 75.3%

Projected total 47.0 · Confidence: projected qb · limited input

PardonMe projects KC clear edge.

PA-1 game simulations

The early projection is retained. No updated pregame simulation is available.

EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

Nov 3, 1:24:04 AM CST · 4,000 D4 simulations · regulation only

Projected scoreNYJ 18.9 — KC 28.1
Expected total47.0
Regulation win probabilitiesNYJ 21.3% · KC 75.3%Tie 3.5%

Quarterbacks modeled

KC Patrick Mahomes (canonical ID 1389) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.8156
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 3, 1:24:04 AM CST.

NYJ Geno Smith (canonical ID 2225) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.0295
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 3, 1:24:04 AM CST.

Evidence and limitations

pa1-live-2026-v1.2 · code 6a49c346c23e3e09c2068a77f9b90265cebbea31 · model 1f046faa41fbfd51e7a438d974f77f2067f52157aef5aa4c597d9e167fdb7c1b · record 0559459cbe0d37c97430ae380f171ba20eb4f91d034cf32216caf8048e983377

Evidence cutoff: Nov 3, 1:24:04 AM CST. Unknown availability stays unknown; a projected lineup is not a confirmed healthy lineup.

  • KC: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • NYJ: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • KC: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • NYJ: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • Current official injury report completeness unproven; absence is not a healthy designation.
  • Projected from official depth order and known eligibility; no confirmed starter announcement required.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-11-01 20:20:05.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-11-01 16:55:01.
  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.
Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models — separate from the PA-1 game simulation. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

Patrick Mahomes · KC

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Geno Smith · NYJ

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Running back ranges

Emmett Johnson · KC

Opportunities
5.9 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–15.0 80%
Carries
4.0 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–11.0 80%
Targets
2.0 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Rushing yards
27 mean · 19 median · 0–61 80%
Receptions
1.6 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
16 mean · 12 median · 0–38 80%
Total TD
23% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Jaydn Ott · KC

Opportunities
9.8 mean · 9.0 median · 2.0–19.0 80%
Carries
7.9 mean · 7.0 median · 1.0–16.0 80%
Targets
2.0 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Rushing yards
45 mean · 40 median · 16–82 80%
Receptions
1.7 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
14 mean · 13 median · 0–33 80%
Total TD
33% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Braelon Allen · NYJ

Opportunities
19.2 mean · 16.0 median · 12.0–30.0 80%
Carries
15.8 mean · 13.0 median · 9.0–25.0 80%
Targets
3.4 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Rushing yards
59 mean · 50 median · 27–105 80%
Receptions
2.2 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
15 mean · 13 median · 0–33 80%
Total TD
37% 1+
Medium

Breece Hall · NYJ

Opportunities
16.1 mean · 17.0 median · 10.0–21.0 80%
Carries
14.0 mean · 14.0 median · 8.0–19.0 80%
Targets
2.1 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Rushing yards
55 mean · 53 median · 29–81 80%
Receptions
1.8 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
16 mean · 15 median · 0–33 80%
Total TD
37% 1+
High

Receiver and tight end ranges

Noah Gray · KC · TE

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

Travis Kelce · KC · TE

Targets
5.8 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.9 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
45 mean · 38 median · 15–72 80%
Receiving TD
23% 1+
High

Andrew Armstrong · KC · WR

Targets
2.7 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
1.7 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
22 mean · 22 median · 0–57 80%
Receiving TD
13% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Rashee Rice · KC · WR

Targets
5.8 mean · 6.0 median · 0.0–10.0 80%
Receptions
4.4 mean · 5.0 median · 0.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
50 mean · 48 median · 0–82 80%
Receiving TD
30% 1+
Medium

Xavier Worthy · KC · WR

Targets
6.5 mean · 7.0 median · 4.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.9 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
46 mean · 48 median · 25–71 80%
Receiving TD
20% 1+
High

Jeremy Ruckert · NYJ · TE

Targets
3.0 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receptions
2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
20 mean · 15 median · 6–37 80%
Receiving TD
17% 1+
High

Mason Taylor · NYJ · TE

Targets
4.7 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
3.4 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
30 mean · 29 median · 12–54 80%
Receiving TD
22% 1+
Medium

Omar Cooper Jr. · NYJ · WR

Targets
5.7 mean · 6.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
4.1 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
69 mean · 69 median · 18–120 80%
Receiving TD
29% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Adonai Mitchell · NYJ · WR

Targets
5.6 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–11.0 80%
Receptions
3.1 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
43 mean · 44 median · 3–86 80%
Receiving TD
24% 1+
High

Garrett Wilson · NYJ · WR

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

12 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Other PardonMe models (comparison)

The PA-1 simulation above is the forecast of record. These earlier models are kept for comparison and are not combined with it.

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

NYJ 21.3 — KC 22.7

KC · 49.6% win probability

Margin
KC 1.5
Total
44.0

As of Nov 3, 2026 11:36 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

NYJWeek 9 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Backup availability is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Geno Smith · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Cade Klubnik · Current status: Transaction Effective

RB official #1 — Breece Hall · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Braelon Allen · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — Isaiah Davis · Availability unknown

RB official #4 — Kene Nwangwu · Questionable

TE official #1 — Mason Taylor · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Kenyon Sadiq · Questionable

TE official #1 — Jeremy Ruckert · Limited

TE official #2 — Jelani Woods · Current status: Transaction Effective

WR official #1 — Adonai Mitchell · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Tim Patrick · Questionable

WR official #3 — Malik McClain · Waived

WR official #1 — Garrett Wilson · Out

WR official #2 — Omar Cooper Jr. · Questionable

WR official #3 — Isaiah Williams · Availability unknown

KCWeek 9 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Official depth is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Patrick Mahomes · Full

QB official #2 — Justin Fields · Availability unknown

QB official #3 — Garrett Nussmeier · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Emmett Johnson · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — Jaydn Ott · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Travis Kelce · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Noah Gray · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — Jared Wiley · Availability unknown

TE official #4 — Jake Briningstool · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Rashee Rice · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Jalen Royals · Availability unknown

WR official #3 — Andrew Armstrong · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Xavier Worthy · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Nikko Remigio · Questionable

WR official #3 — Cyrus Allen · Full

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonNYJKC
Projected points18.928.1
Win probability (regulation)21.3%75.3%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status73 updates38 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 139 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 50 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

KC recent scoring form vs NYJ prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 16.3; opponent allowed 30.7.

NYJ recent scoring form vs KC prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 25.7; opponent allowed 18.0.