EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

DET at MIA

Sunday, November 8 · 12:00 PM CST

DET 26.6 — MIA 20.7

DET edge · DET 65.5%

Projected total 47.4 · Confidence: projected qb · limited input

PardonMe projects DET edge.

PA-1 game simulations

The early projection is retained. No updated pregame simulation is available.

EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

Nov 3, 1:24:36 AM CST · 4,000 D4 simulations · regulation only

Projected scoreDET 26.6 — MIA 20.7
Expected total47.4
Regulation win probabilitiesDET 65.5% · MIA 30.6%Tie 4.0%

Quarterbacks modeled

DET Jared Goff (canonical ID 925) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.6185
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 3, 1:24:36 AM CST.

MIA Malik Willis (canonical ID 1770) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.2648
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 3, 1:24:36 AM CST.

Evidence and limitations

pa1-live-2026-v1.2 · code 6a49c346c23e3e09c2068a77f9b90265cebbea31 · model 1f046faa41fbfd51e7a438d974f77f2067f52157aef5aa4c597d9e167fdb7c1b · record 390bb4638ff67f75c318dd4e0d12cff4e1840f60bfcd4851c0fe5a2f28a01060

Evidence cutoff: Nov 3, 1:24:36 AM CST. Unknown availability stays unknown; a projected lineup is not a confirmed healthy lineup.

  • DET: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • MIA: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • DET: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • MIA: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • Current official injury report completeness unproven; absence is not a healthy designation.
  • Projected from official depth order and known eligibility; no confirmed starter announcement required.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-11-01 20:20:06.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-11-01 16:55:00.
  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.
Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models — separate from the PA-1 game simulation. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

Jared Goff · DET

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Malik Willis · MIA

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Low uncertainty

Running back ranges

Jahmyr Gibbs · DET

Opportunities
23.9 mean · 23.0 median · 13.0–35.0 80%
Carries
18.2 mean · 18.0 median · 10.0–26.0 80%
Targets
5.7 mean · 6.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Rushing yards
67 mean · 65 median · 30–104 80%
Receptions
4.2 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
33 mean · 31 median · 8–60 80%
Total TD
55% 1+
High

Sione Vaki · DET

Opportunities
5.4 mean · 4.0 median · 0.0–15.0 80%
Carries
4.4 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–12.0 80%
Targets
0.9 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Rushing yards
23 mean · 17 median · 0–57 80%
Receptions
0.8 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
Receiving yards
6 mean · 0 median · 0–17 80%
Total TD
17% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

De'Von Achane · MIA

Opportunities
11.5 mean · 12.0 median · 1.0–18.0 80%
Carries
8.9 mean · 9.0 median · 0.0–15.0 80%
Targets
2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Rushing yards
56 mean · 57 median · 0–93 80%
Receptions
2.2 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
18 mean · 17 median · 0–38 80%
Total TD
33% 1+
High

Ollie Gordon II · MIA

Opportunities
19.1 mean · 16.0 median · 12.0–28.0 80%
Carries
16.7 mean · 14.0 median · 10.0–25.0 80%
Targets
2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Rushing yards
62 mean · 53 median · 31–102 80%
Receptions
1.5 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
10 mean · 7 median · 0–22 80%
Total TD
43% 1+
Medium

Receiver and tight end ranges

Sam LaPorta · DET · TE

Targets
5.2 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
3.6 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
44 mean · 37 median · 13–74 80%
Receiving TD
24% 1+
High

Brock Wright · DET · TE

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

Amon-Ra St. Brown · DET · WR

Targets
9.7 mean · 10.0 median · 5.0–14.0 80%
Receptions
7.0 mean · 7.0 median · 3.0–11.0 80%
Receiving yards
81 mean · 75 median · 41–122 80%
Receiving TD
41% 1+
High

Isaac TeSlaa · DET · WR

Targets
3.9 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
39 mean · 29 median · 0–76 80%
Receiving TD
24% 1+
Medium

Jameson Williams · DET · WR

Targets
6.9 mean · 8.0 median · 3.0–10.0 80%
Receptions
4.5 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
68 mean · 64 median · 32–110 80%
Receiving TD
36% 1+
High

Greg Dulcich · MIA · TE

Targets
5.1 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
4.2 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
52 mean · 51 median · 27–77 80%
Receiving TD
21% 1+
Medium

Will Kacmarek · MIA · TE

Targets
1.5 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receptions
0.9 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
Receiving yards
9 mean · 9 median · 0–19 80%
Receiving TD
10% 1+
Medium

Chris Bell · MIA · WR

Targets
4.8 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
2.7 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
33 mean · 25 median · 12–62 80%
Receiving TD
16% 1+
Medium

Caleb Douglas · MIA · WR

Targets
6.1 mean · 5.0 median · 4.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.8 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
59 mean · 48 median · 17–93 80%
Receiving TD
28% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Jalen Tolbert · MIA · WR

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

12 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Other PardonMe models (comparison)

The PA-1 simulation above is the forecast of record. These earlier models are kept for comparison and are not combined with it.

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

DET 23.3 — MIA 22.6

DET · 56.0% win probability

Margin
DET 0.7
Total
45.9

As of Nov 3, 2026 11:36 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

DETWeek 9 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Jared Goff · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Joshua Dobbs · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Jahmyr Gibbs · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Sione Vaki · Questionable

RB official #3 — Jacob Saylors · Questionable

TE official #1 — Sam LaPorta · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Brock Wright · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — Tyler Conklin · Reserve status: Active Pup

TE official #4 — Jackson Meeks · Practice squad

WR official #1 — Amon-Ra St. Brown · Questionable

WR official #2 — DeAndre Carter · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Jameson Williams · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Isaac TeSlaa · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Tay Martin · Availability unknown

MIAWeek 9 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Malik Willis · Full

QB official #2 — Kyle McCord · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Ollie Gordon II · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Jaylen Wright · Questionable

RB official #3 — Player 2836 · Questionable

TE official #1 — Greg Dulcich · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Will Kacmarek · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — Seydou Traore · Full

TE official #4 — Justin Joly · Out

WR official #1 — Malik Washington · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Kevin Coleman Jr. · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Chris Bell · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Jalen Tolbert · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Caleb Douglas · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Player 1140 · Availability unknown

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonDETMIA
Projected points26.620.7
Win probability (regulation)65.5%30.6%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status24 updates35 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 140 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 46 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

MIA recent scoring form vs DET prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 23.7; opponent allowed 17.7.

DET recent scoring form vs MIA prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 28.0; opponent allowed 26.7.