UPDATED PREGAME SIMULATION

CLE at NO

Sunday, November 8 · 12:00 PM CST

CLE 19.1 — NO 19.9

Nearly even · NO 50.1%

Projected total 39.0 · Confidence: projected qb · limited input

PardonMe projects Nearly even.

PA-1 game simulations

UPDATED PREGAME SIMULATION

Nov 6, 2:17:37 PM CST · 4,000 D4 simulations · regulation only

Projected scoreCLE 19.1 — NO 19.9
Expected total39.0
Regulation win probabilitiesCLE 45.3% · NO 50.1%Tie 4.6%

Quarterbacks modeled

CLE Shedeur Sanders (canonical ID 675) · CONFIRMED · D4 capability 0.1328
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 6, 2:17:37 PM CST.

NO Tyler Shough (canonical ID 2041) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.3775
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 6, 2:17:37 PM CST.

Alternative QB scenarios

Each available alternative uses another 4,000 draws with the other team's primary QB held fixed. These are conditional outcomes; no probability of starting is assigned.

Deshaun Watson (ID 680): capability 0.1932 · CLE 19.2 — NO 19.9 · total 39.1 (change +0.1) · NO win 50.1% (change -0.0 percentage points).

Evidence and limitations

pa1-live-2026-v1.2 · code b668552219d54ed8f55b67869a53876e7f138d55 · model 1f046faa41fbfd51e7a438d974f77f2067f52157aef5aa4c597d9e167fdb7c1b · record 816382fad5497eea1ebf412a4e3be76ad5e4acdbce1f0b7fe51469fe9359f93e

Evidence cutoff: Nov 6, 2:17:37 PM CST. Unknown availability stays unknown; a projected lineup is not a confirmed healthy lineup.

  • CLE: no verified-complete official inactive list (DESIGNATIONS_ONLY)
  • NO: no verified-complete official inactive list (DESIGNATIONS_ONLY)
  • NO: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • Projected from official depth order and known eligibility; no confirmed starter announcement required.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-11-06 20:06:03.
  • Current official injury report completeness unproven; absence is not a healthy designation.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-11-06 20:06:01.
  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.

EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

Nov 3, 1:25:04 AM CST · 4,000 D4 simulations · regulation only

Projected scoreCLE 19.2 — NO 19.9
Expected total39.1
Regulation win probabilitiesCLE 45.4% · NO 50.1%Tie 4.5%

Quarterbacks modeled

CLE Deshaun Watson (canonical ID 680) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.1932
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 3, 1:25:04 AM CST.

NO Tyler Shough (canonical ID 2041) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.3776
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 3, 1:25:04 AM CST.

Evidence and limitations

pa1-live-2026-v1.2 · code 6a49c346c23e3e09c2068a77f9b90265cebbea31 · model 1f046faa41fbfd51e7a438d974f77f2067f52157aef5aa4c597d9e167fdb7c1b · record b94f82fa95095195aa67fb0479c05a443f4fad1b5f3fab590008563045426190

Evidence cutoff: Nov 3, 1:25:04 AM CST. Unknown availability stays unknown; a projected lineup is not a confirmed healthy lineup.

  • CLE: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • NO: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • CLE: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • NO: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • Current official injury report completeness unproven; absence is not a healthy designation.
  • Projected from official depth order and known eligibility; no confirmed starter announcement required.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-10-25 12:25:06.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-11-01 16:55:00.
  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.

Change from early to updated: total -0.1 points; home win probability +0.0 percentage points. Both original records remain available above.

Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models — separate from the PA-1 game simulation. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

Deshaun Watson · CLE

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Tyler Shough · NO

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Running back ranges

Quinshon Judkins · CLE

Opportunities
17.1 mean · 17.0 median · 12.0–25.0 80%
Carries
14.4 mean · 14.0 median · 9.0–21.0 80%
Targets
2.7 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Rushing yards
48 mean · 46 median · 28–72 80%
Receptions
2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
20 mean · 16 median · 0–38 80%
Total TD
39% 1+
Medium

Raheim Sanders · CLE

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Insufficient Evidence

Travis Etienne Jr. · NO

Opportunities
10.7 mean · 12.0 median · 4.0–15.0 80%
Carries
8.7 mean · 9.0 median · 3.0–13.0 80%
Targets
2.1 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Rushing yards
37 mean · 38 median · 14–59 80%
Receptions
1.6 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
13 mean · 9 median · 0–27 80%
Total TD
33% 1+
High

Alvin Kamara · NO

Opportunities
12.7 mean · 13.0 median · 5.0–22.0 80%
Carries
8.9 mean · 8.0 median · 4.0–15.0 80%
Targets
3.8 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Rushing yards
33 mean · 31 median · 14–57 80%
Receptions
2.9 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
20 mean · 17 median · 5–40 80%
Total TD
30% 1+
High

Receiver and tight end ranges

Harold Fannin Jr. · CLE · TE

Targets
5.9 mean · 5.0 median · 1.0–11.0 80%
Receptions
3.9 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
Receiving yards
44 mean · 37 median · 13–93 80%
Receiving TD
26% 1+
Medium

Blake Whiteheart · CLE · TE

Targets
2.0 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–3.0 80%
Receptions
1.2 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
Receiving yards
11 mean · 8 median · 0–17 80%
Receiving TD
13% 1+
Medium

Denzel Boston · CLE · WR

Targets
6.4 mean · 7.0 median · 4.0–11.0 80%
Receptions
3.5 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
52 mean · 48 median · 18–92 80%
Receiving TD
30% 1+
Medium

Jerry Jeudy · CLE · WR

Targets
5.1 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
3.1 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
37 mean · 34 median · 11–57 80%
Receiving TD
18% 1+
High

Tylan Wallace · CLE · WR

Targets
1.8 mean · 1.0 median · 1.0–3.0 80%
Receptions
1.3 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
Receiving yards
17 mean · 19 median · 0–30 80%
Receiving TD
12% 1+
Medium

Noah Fant · NO · TE

Targets
2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
1.7 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
15 mean · 7 median · 0–42 80%
Receiving TD
15% 1+
High

Juwan Johnson · NO · TE

Targets
4.9 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
3.7 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
43 mean · 44 median · 11–80 80%
Receiving TD
23% 1+
High

Chris Olave · NO · WR

Targets
8.3 mean · 9.0 median · 4.0–12.0 80%
Receptions
5.7 mean · 6.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receiving yards
77 mean · 71 median · 30–123 80%
Receiving TD
38% 1+
High

Devaughn Vele · NO · WR

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium

11 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Other PardonMe models (comparison)

The PA-1 simulation above is the forecast of record. These earlier models are kept for comparison and are not combined with it.

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

CLE 19.2 — NO 22.5

NO · 55.9% win probability

Margin
NO 3.3
Total
41.7

As of Nov 3, 2026 11:36 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

CLEWeek 9 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Official depth is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Shedeur Sanders · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Quinshon Judkins · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Dylan Sampson · Availability unknown

RB official #4 — Jaleel McLaughlin · Current status: Transaction Effective

TE official #1 — Harold Fannin Jr. · Limited

TE official #2 — Blake Whiteheart · Current status: Transaction Effective

WR official #1 — Jerry Jeudy · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Tylan Wallace · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Denzel Boston · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Malachi Corley · Current status: Transaction Effective

WR official #2 — Isaiah Bond · Availability unknown

NOWeek 9 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Tyler Shough · Full

QB official #2 — Spencer Rattler · Full

QB official #3 — Zach Wilson · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Alvin Kamara · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Kendre Miller · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — CJ Donaldson · Out

TE official #1 — Juwan Johnson · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Noah Fant · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — Oscar Delp · Current status: Transaction Effective

TE official #4 — Treyton Welch · Current status: Transaction Effective

WR official #1 — Chris Olave · Questionable

WR official #2 — Barion Brown · Questionable

WR official #1 — Devaughn Vele · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Bryce Lance · Current status: Transaction Effective

WR official #1 — Barion Brown · Questionable

WR official #2 — Bryce Lance · Current status: Transaction Effective

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonCLENO
Projected points19.119.9
Win probability (regulation)45.3%50.1%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status73 updates57 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 129 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 43 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

CLE recent scoring form vs NO prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 15.3; opponent allowed 22.0.

NO recent scoring form vs CLE prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 19.0; opponent allowed 20.3.