UPDATED PREGAME SIMULATION

NYG at PHI

Sunday, November 8 · 12:00 PM CST

NYG 20.2 — PHI 19.5

Nearly even · NYG 49.7%

Projected total 39.6 · Confidence: projected qb · limited input

PardonMe projects Nearly even.

PA-1 game simulations

2 updated simulations have been published; the newest is shown. Each is retained.

UPDATED PREGAME SIMULATION

Nov 8, 9:37:45 AM CST · 4,000 D4 simulations · regulation only

Projected scoreNYG 20.2 — PHI 19.5
Expected total39.6
Regulation win probabilitiesNYG 49.7% · PHI 45.3%Tie 5.1%

Quarterbacks modeled

NYG J.J. McCarthy (canonical ID 1849) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.4653
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 8, 9:37:45 AM CST.

PHI Joe Milton III (canonical ID 754) · CONFIRMED · D4 capability 0.2960
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 8, 9:37:45 AM CST.

Alternative QB scenarios

Each available alternative uses another 4,000 draws with the other team's primary QB held fixed. These are conditional outcomes; no probability of starting is assigned.

Tanner McKee (ID 2309): capability -0.1344 · NYG 20.2 — PHI 19.1 · total 39.3 (change -0.3) · PHI win 43.9% (change -1.4 percentage points).

Evidence and limitations

pa1-live-2026-v1.2 · code b668552219d54ed8f55b67869a53876e7f138d55 · model 1f046faa41fbfd51e7a438d974f77f2067f52157aef5aa4c597d9e167fdb7c1b · record ece4fed95b4a8927506f59c6b0246e51889d058bc5aa26c9a534664f4144cb74

Evidence cutoff: Nov 8, 9:37:45 AM CST. Unknown availability stays unknown; a projected lineup is not a confirmed healthy lineup.

  • NYG: no verified-complete official inactive list (DESIGNATIONS_ONLY)
  • PHI: no verified-complete official inactive list (DESIGNATIONS_ONLY)
  • NYG: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • Projected from official depth order and known eligibility; no confirmed starter announcement required.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-11-08 15:06:13.
  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.

EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

Nov 3, 1:25:39 AM CST · 4,000 D4 simulations · regulation only

Projected scoreNYG 20.1 — PHI 19.1
Expected total39.2
Regulation win probabilitiesNYG 50.9% · PHI 44.2%Tie 4.9%

Quarterbacks modeled

NYG Jameis Winston (canonical ID 2142) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.3864
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 3, 1:25:39 AM CST.

PHI Tanner McKee (canonical ID 2309) · PROJECTED · D4 capability -0.1344
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 3, 1:25:39 AM CST.

Evidence and limitations

pa1-live-2026-v1.2 · code 6a49c346c23e3e09c2068a77f9b90265cebbea31 · model 1f046faa41fbfd51e7a438d974f77f2067f52157aef5aa4c597d9e167fdb7c1b · record b1fb6c79e87e55bdd98d45fbb50b7b36d3b825d6981c8871010afa11cdcef0bc

Evidence cutoff: Nov 3, 1:25:39 AM CST. Unknown availability stays unknown; a projected lineup is not a confirmed healthy lineup.

  • NYG: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • PHI: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • NYG: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • PHI: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • Current official injury report completeness unproven; absence is not a healthy designation.
  • Projected from official depth order and known eligibility; no confirmed starter announcement required.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-11-02 00:14:58.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-10-25 16:41:10.
  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.

Change from early to updated: total +0.4 points; home win probability +1.1 percentage points. Both original records remain available above.

Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models — separate from the PA-1 game simulation. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

Jameis Winston · NYG

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Tanner McKee · PHI

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Insufficient Evidence uncertainty

Running back ranges

Devin Singletary · NYG

Opportunities
6.9 mean · 6.0 median · 1.0–12.0 80%
Carries
5.4 mean · 5.0 median · 1.0–10.0 80%
Targets
1.5 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Rushing yards
29 mean · 26 median · 7–53 80%
Receptions
1.3 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
10 mean · 7 median · 0–22 80%
Total TD
26% 1+
High

Cam Skattebo · NYG

Opportunities
15.8 mean · 16.0 median · 5.0–22.0 80%
Carries
13.3 mean · 14.0 median · 4.0–19.0 80%
Targets
2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Rushing yards
51 mean · 52 median · 13–80 80%
Receptions
2.0 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
16 mean · 14 median · 0–33 80%
Total TD
37% 1+
Medium

Saquon Barkley · PHI

Opportunities
12.2 mean · 12.0 median · 2.0–21.0 80%
Carries
10.6 mean · 11.0 median · 2.0–18.0 80%
Targets
1.5 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Rushing yards
49 mean · 47 median · 11–86 80%
Receptions
1.2 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
9 mean · 7 median · 0–22 80%
Total TD
31% 1+
High

Receiver and tight end ranges

Theo Johnson · NYG · TE

Targets
3.0 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
1.8 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
23 mean · 24 median · 0–50 80%
Receiving TD
14% 1+
Medium

Isaiah Likely · NYG · TE

Targets
7.8 mean · 7.0 median · 4.0–13.0 80%
Receptions
5.2 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–10.0 80%
Receiving yards
54 mean · 44 median · 23–96 80%
Receiving TD
34% 1+
High

Malachi Fields · NYG · WR

Targets
4.5 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
36 mean · 29 median · 13–72 80%
Receiving TD
18% 1+
Medium

Darnell Mooney · NYG · WR

Targets
3.6 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
1.8 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
21 mean · 21 median · 0–46 80%
Receiving TD
12% 1+
High

Malik Nabers · NYG · WR

Targets
8.7 mean · 8.0 median · 3.0–15.0 80%
Receptions
5.9 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–11.0 80%
Receiving yards
76 mean · 70 median · 30–136 80%
Receiving TD
36% 1+
Medium

Dallas Goedert · PHI · TE

Targets
6.6 mean · 6.0 median · 3.0–10.0 80%
Receptions
4.8 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receiving yards
48 mean · 42 median · 21–80 80%
Receiving TD
31% 1+
High

Johnny Mundt · PHI · TE

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

Darius Cooper · PHI · WR

Targets
5.2 mean · 4.0 median · 3.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
2.6 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
34 mean · 26 median · 12–64 80%
Receiving TD
26% 1+
Medium

DeVonta Smith · PHI · WR

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

Dontayvion Wicks · PHI · WR

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

10 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Other PardonMe models (comparison)

The PA-1 simulation above is the forecast of record. These earlier models are kept for comparison and are not combined with it.

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

NYG 22.5 — PHI 21.1

NYG · 58.6% win probability

Margin
NYG 1.4
Total
43.6

As of Nov 3, 2026 11:36 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

NYGWeek 9 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — J.J. McCarthy · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Jameis Winston · Current status: Transaction Effective

RB official #1 — Cam Skattebo · Doubtful

RB official #2 — Devin Singletary · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Isaiah Likely · Full

TE official #2 — Theo Johnson · Full

TE official #3 — Chris Manhertz · Availability unknown

TE official #4 — Thomas Fidone II · Full

WR official #1 — Darnell Mooney · Full

WR official #2 — Charlie Jones · Questionable

WR official #1 — Malik Nabers · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Malachi Fields · Availability unknown

PHIWeek 9 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Backup availability is not confirmed.

WR: Backup availability is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Tanner McKee · Questionable

QB official #2 — Cole Payton · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Saquon Barkley · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Dallas Goedert · Full

TE official #2 — Johnny Mundt · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — DeVonta Smith · Out

WR official #2 — Hollywood Brown · Did not participate

WR official #1 — Dontayvion Wicks · Out

WR official #2 — Darius Cooper · Full

WR official #1 — Makai Lemon · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Elijah Moore · Availability unknown

WR official #3 — Britain Covey · Out

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonNYGPHI
Projected points20.219.5
Win probability (regulation)49.7%45.3%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status59 updates70 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 145 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 50 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

PHI recent scoring form vs NYG prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 15.0; opponent allowed 27.3.

NYG recent scoring form vs PHI prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 27.0; opponent allowed 30.0.