EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

LAR at WAS

Sunday, November 8 · 12:00 PM CST

LAR 24.2 — WAS 20.4

LAR slight edge · LAR 60.7%

Projected total 44.7 · Confidence: projected qb · limited input

PardonMe projects LAR slight edge.

PA-1 game simulations

The early projection is retained. No updated pregame simulation is available.

EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

Nov 3, 1:26:12 AM CST · 4,000 D4 simulations · regulation only

Projected scoreLAR 24.2 — WAS 20.4
Expected total44.7
Regulation win probabilitiesLAR 60.7% · WAS 35.5%Tie 3.8%

Quarterbacks modeled

LA Matthew Stafford (canonical ID 1678) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.3092
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 3, 1:26:12 AM CST.

WAS Jayden Daniels (canonical ID 2848) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.0958
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 3, 1:26:12 AM CST.

Evidence and limitations

pa1-live-2026-v1.2 · code 6a49c346c23e3e09c2068a77f9b90265cebbea31 · model 1f046faa41fbfd51e7a438d974f77f2067f52157aef5aa4c597d9e167fdb7c1b · record e5f72e246334ea9cb90f4f1105bf4c7416e61803d27c493f71f6f1fe61ecbf96

Evidence cutoff: Nov 3, 1:26:12 AM CST. Unknown availability stays unknown; a projected lineup is not a confirmed healthy lineup.

  • LA: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • WAS: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • LA: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • WAS: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • Current official injury report completeness unproven; absence is not a healthy designation.
  • Projected from official depth order and known eligibility; no confirmed starter announcement required.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-11-02 00:14:59.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-11-01 19:59:58.
  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.
Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models — separate from the PA-1 game simulation. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

Matthew Stafford · LAR

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Jayden Daniels · WAS

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Running back ranges

Blake Corum · LAR

Opportunities
12.6 mean · 12.0 median · 7.0–19.0 80%
Carries
11.0 mean · 10.0 median · 6.0–16.0 80%
Targets
1.6 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Rushing yards
51 mean · 46 median · 28–78 80%
Receptions
1.3 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
11 mean · 8 median · 0–25 80%
Total TD
36% 1+
Medium

Kyren Williams · LAR

Opportunities
17.4 mean · 16.0 median · 11.0–28.0 80%
Carries
13.2 mean · 13.0 median · 7.0–21.0 80%
Targets
4.2 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Rushing yards
58 mean · 54 median · 29–93 80%
Receptions
2.9 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
22 mean · 21 median · 7–42 80%
Total TD
41% 1+
High

Jacory Croskey-Merritt · WAS

Opportunities
12.4 mean · 11.0 median · 7.0–19.0 80%
Carries
11.5 mean · 11.0 median · 6.0–18.0 80%
Targets
0.9 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
Rushing yards
50 mean · 45 median · 26–79 80%
Receptions
0.7 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
Receiving yards
6 mean · 0 median · 0–15 80%
Total TD
35% 1+
Medium

Rachaad White · WAS

Opportunities
11.4 mean · 10.0 median · 7.0–16.0 80%
Carries
8.4 mean · 8.0 median · 4.0–13.0 80%
Targets
3.0 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Rushing yards
41 mean · 38 median · 21–66 80%
Receptions
2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
16 mean · 14 median · 0–30 80%
Total TD
31% 1+
High

Receiver and tight end ranges

Davis Allen · LAR · TE

Targets
3.9 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
22 mean · 18 median · 8–44 80%
Receiving TD
18% 1+
Medium

Colby Parkinson · LAR · TE

Targets
3.7 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
2.6 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
25 mean · 28 median · 0–47 80%
Receiving TD
21% 1+
High

CJ Daniels · LAR · WR

Targets
4.8 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.0 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
38 mean · 25 median · 13–76 80%
Receiving TD
20% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Puka Nacua · LAR · WR

Targets
10.2 mean · 10.0 median · 5.0–16.0 80%
Receptions
7.6 mean · 7.0 median · 3.0–12.0 80%
Receiving yards
96 mean · 95 median · 44–146 80%
Receiving TD
44% 1+
High

Alex Bachman · LAR · WR

Targets
1.5 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receptions
1.2 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
15 mean · 0 median · 0–45 80%
Receiving TD
11% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

John Bates · WAS · TE

Targets
1.6 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receptions
1.1 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
10 mean · 7 median · 0–25 80%
Receiving TD
10% 1+
High

Chig Okonkwo · WAS · TE

Targets
5.1 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
3.5 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
36 mean · 33 median · 13–62 80%
Receiving TD
22% 1+
High

Treylon Burks · WAS · WR

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

Terry McLaurin · WAS · WR

Targets
5.5 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
4.0 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
61 mean · 60 median · 16–119 80%
Receiving TD
30% 1+
High

Stefon Diggs · WAS · WR

Targets
6.9 mean · 7.0 median · 4.0–10.0 80%
Receptions
5.0 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receiving yards
58 mean · 59 median · 25–94 80%
Receiving TD
36% 1+
High

12 individualized projections · 1 baseline projection. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Other PardonMe models (comparison)

The PA-1 simulation above is the forecast of record. These earlier models are kept for comparison and are not combined with it.

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

LAR 22.2 — WAS 22.9

WAS · 48.3% win probability

Margin
WAS 0.7
Total
45.1

As of Nov 3, 2026 11:36 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

LARWeek 9 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Official depth order is ambiguous.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Matthew Stafford · Full

QB official #2 — Stetson Bennett IV · Availability unknown

QB official #3 — Ty Simpson · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Kyren Williams · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Blake Corum · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — Dean Connors · Waived

TE official #1 — Davis Allen · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Tyler Higbee · Did not participate

TE official #1 — Colby Parkinson · Questionable

TE official #2 — Max Klare · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Konata Mumpfield · Full

WR official #2 — CJ Daniels · Availability unknown

WR official #3 — Alex Bachman · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Puka Nacua · Did not participate

WR official #2 — Jordan Whittington · Questionable

WR official #3 — Tutu Atwell · Availability unknown

WASWeek 9 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Backup availability is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Jayden Daniels · Full

QB official #2 — Marcus Mariota · Full

QB official #3 — Athan Kaliakmanis · Current status: Transaction Effective

RB official #1 — Jacory Croskey-Merritt · Out

RB official #2 — Rachaad White · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — Player 3694 · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — John Bates · Limited

TE official #2 — Colson Yankoff · Full

TE official #1 — Chig Okonkwo · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Ben Sinnott · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Dyami Brown · Out

WR official #2 — Antonio Williams · Current status: Transaction Effective

WR official #3 — Luke McCaffrey · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Terry McLaurin · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Treylon Burks · Out

WR official #1 — Stefon Diggs · Did not participate

WR official #2 — Jaylin Lane · Availability unknown

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonLARWAS
Projected points24.220.4
Win probability (regulation)60.7%35.5%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status58 updates60 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 161 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 49 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

WAS recent scoring form vs LAR prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 23.7; opponent allowed 16.0.

LAR recent scoring form vs WAS prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 25.0; opponent allowed 20.0.