EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

DEN at CAR

Sunday, November 8 · 12:00 PM CST

DEN 22.6 — CAR 19.0

DEN slight edge · DEN 59.3%

Projected total 41.6 · Confidence: projected qb · limited input

PardonMe projects DEN slight edge.

PA-1 game simulations

The early projection is retained. No updated pregame simulation is available.

EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

Nov 3, 1:26:44 AM CST · 4,000 D4 simulations · regulation only

Projected scoreDEN 22.6 — CAR 19.0
Expected total41.6
Regulation win probabilitiesDEN 59.3% · CAR 36.4%Tie 4.3%

Quarterbacks modeled

CAR Bryce Young (canonical ID 410) · PROJECTED · D4 capability -0.7127
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 3, 1:26:44 AM CST.

DEN Bo Nix (canonical ID 854) · PROJECTED · D4 capability -0.1134
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 3, 1:26:44 AM CST.

Evidence and limitations

pa1-live-2026-v1.2 · code 6a49c346c23e3e09c2068a77f9b90265cebbea31 · model 1f046faa41fbfd51e7a438d974f77f2067f52157aef5aa4c597d9e167fdb7c1b · record ddbaf07ba82d5d0a396e92705a053391ecc8fd35bc0deb7a1e73d89fdcc36902

Evidence cutoff: Nov 3, 1:26:44 AM CST. Unknown availability stays unknown; a projected lineup is not a confirmed healthy lineup.

  • CAR: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • DEN: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • CAR: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • DEN: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • Current official injury report completeness unproven; absence is not a healthy designation.
  • Projected from official depth order and known eligibility; no confirmed starter announcement required.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-10-29 23:09:58.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-11-01 20:20:04.
  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.
Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models — separate from the PA-1 game simulation. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

Bryce Young · CAR

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Bo Nix · DEN

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Running back ranges

Jonathon Brooks · CAR

Opportunities
8.8 mean · 7.0 median · 3.0–19.0 80%
Carries
6.8 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–15.0 80%
Targets
2.1 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Rushing yards
32 mean · 25 median · 12–63 80%
Receptions
1.7 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
15 mean · 9 median · 0–36 80%
Total TD
26% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Chuba Hubbard · CAR

Opportunities
21.8 mean · 20.0 median · 13.0–36.0 80%
Carries
17.7 mean · 16.0 median · 10.0–28.0 80%
Targets
4.0 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Rushing yards
65 mean · 59 median · 32–110 80%
Receptions
2.8 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
21 mean · 18 median · 6–43 80%
Total TD
46% 1+
High

J.K. Dobbins · DEN

Opportunities
11.8 mean · 13.0 median · 4.0–18.0 80%
Carries
10.8 mean · 11.0 median · 4.0–17.0 80%
Targets
1.0 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Rushing yards
49 mean · 48 median · 20–77 80%
Receptions
0.9 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
Receiving yards
7 mean · 5 median · 0–19 80%
Total TD
31% 1+
High

RJ Harvey · DEN

Opportunities
9.3 mean · 9.0 median · 2.0–17.0 80%
Carries
6.0 mean · 6.0 median · 0.0–12.0 80%
Targets
3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
Rushing yards
30 mean · 30 median · 0–56 80%
Receptions
2.7 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
22 mean · 20 median · 0–45 80%
Total TD
32% 1+
Medium

Receiver and tight end ranges

Mitchell Evans · CAR · TE

Targets
2.7 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
Receptions
2.1 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
24 mean · 20 median · 8–40 80%
Receiving TD
15% 1+
Medium

Tommy Tremble · CAR · TE

Targets
3.0 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receptions
2.0 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
19 mean · 17 median · 0–36 80%
Receiving TD
16% 1+
High

Jalen Coker · CAR · WR

Targets
7.2 mean · 6.0 median · 4.0–11.0 80%
Receptions
4.7 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receiving yards
61 mean · 54 median · 28–106 80%
Receiving TD
35% 1+
Medium

Xavier Legette · CAR · WR

Targets
2.2 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
1.2 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
17 mean · 12 median · 0–40 80%
Receiving TD
10% 1+
High

Tetairoa McMillan · CAR · WR

Targets
8.6 mean · 8.0 median · 4.0–13.0 80%
Receptions
5.3 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receiving yards
74 mean · 73 median · 31–129 80%
Receiving TD
34% 1+
Medium

Evan Engram · DEN · TE

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

Adam Trautman · DEN · TE

Targets
2.0 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
Receptions
1.5 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
15 mean · 9 median · 0–30 80%
Receiving TD
10% 1+
High

Lil'Jordan Humphrey · DEN · WR

Targets
2.1 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
1.4 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
18 mean · 10 median · 0–45 80%
Receiving TD
12% 1+
High

Courtland Sutton · DEN · WR

Targets
5.0 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–10.0 80%
Receptions
2.7 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
34 mean · 27 median · 0–76 80%
Receiving TD
20% 1+
High

Jaylen Waddle · DEN · WR

Targets
6.3 mean · 7.0 median · 2.0–10.0 80%
Receptions
4.2 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
51 mean · 51 median · 18–86 80%
Receiving TD
29% 1+
High

13 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Other PardonMe models (comparison)

The PA-1 simulation above is the forecast of record. These earlier models are kept for comparison and are not combined with it.

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

DEN 23.0 — CAR 21.4

DEN · 58.1% win probability

Margin
DEN 1.6
Total
44.4

As of Nov 3, 2026 11:36 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

DENWeek 9 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Bo Nix · Current status: Transaction Effective

QB official #2 — Jarrett Stidham · Availability unknown

QB official #3 — Sam Ehlinger · Current status: Transaction Effective

RB official #1 — J.K. Dobbins · Full

RB official #2 — Jonah Coleman · Questionable

TE official #1 — Evan Engram · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Adam Trautman · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — Nate Adkins · Availability unknown

TE official #4 — Dallen Bentley · Current status: Transaction Effective

WR official #1 — Marvin Mims Jr. · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Troy Franklin · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Jaylen Waddle · Full

WR official #2 — Lil'Jordan Humphrey · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Courtland Sutton · Availability unknown

CARWeek 9 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Bryce Young · Full

QB official #2 — Kenny Pickett · Availability unknown

QB official #3 — Haynes King · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Chuba Hubbard · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Trevor Etienne · Questionable

RB official #3 — AJ Dillon · Full

RB official #4 — Anthony Tyus III · Practice squad

TE official #1 — Tommy Tremble · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Mitchell Evans · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — Darren Waller · Availability unknown

TE official #4 — Ja'Tavion Sanders · Availability unknown

TE official #5 — Feleipe Franks · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Jalen Coker · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — David Moore · Current status: Transaction Effective

WR official #1 — Tetairoa McMillan · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Brycen Tremayne · Current status: Transaction Effective

WR official #1 — John Metchie III · Availability unknown

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonDENCAR
Projected points22.619.0
Win probability (regulation)59.3%36.4%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status67 updates61 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 133 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 40 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

DEN recent scoring form vs CAR prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 25.0; opponent allowed 28.0.

CAR recent scoring form vs DEN prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 19.0; opponent allowed 18.0.