EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

HOU at LAC

Sunday, November 8 · 3:05 PM CST

HOU 22.0 — LAC 17.6

HOU edge · HOU 61.7%

Projected total 39.6 · Confidence: projected qb · limited input

PardonMe projects HOU edge.

PA-1 game simulations

The early projection is retained. No updated pregame simulation is available.

EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

Nov 3, 1:27:15 AM CST · 4,000 D4 simulations · regulation only

Projected scoreHOU 22.0 — LAC 17.6
Expected total39.6
Regulation win probabilitiesHOU 61.7% · LAC 34.5%Tie 3.8%

Quarterbacks modeled

HOU C.J. Stroud (canonical ID 1137) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.3605
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 3, 1:27:15 AM CST.

LAC Justin Herbert (canonical ID 1567) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.2350
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 3, 1:27:15 AM CST.

Evidence and limitations

pa1-live-2026-v1.2 · code 6a49c346c23e3e09c2068a77f9b90265cebbea31 · model 1f046faa41fbfd51e7a438d974f77f2067f52157aef5aa4c597d9e167fdb7c1b · record a0fdd54a38aa402901f550b6909f78389ca8a69e0f283e2d62eb3b882edd0994

Evidence cutoff: Nov 3, 1:27:15 AM CST. Unknown availability stays unknown; a projected lineup is not a confirmed healthy lineup.

  • HOU: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • LAC: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • HOU: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • LAC: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • Current official injury report completeness unproven; absence is not a healthy designation.
  • Projected from official depth order and known eligibility; no confirmed starter announcement required.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-11-01 19:59:57.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-10-15 03:01:58.
  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.
Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models — separate from the PA-1 game simulation. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

C.J. Stroud · HOU

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Justin Herbert · LAC

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Running back ranges

Woody Marks · HOU

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium

David Montgomery · HOU

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

Omarion Hampton · LAC

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium

Receiver and tight end ranges

Foster Moreau · HOU · TE

Targets
3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receptions
2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
24 mean · 25 median · 8–44 80%
Receiving TD
21% 1+
High

Dalton Schultz · HOU · TE

Targets
4.4 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
3.6 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
36 mean · 31 median · 11–71 80%
Receiving TD
19% 1+
High

Nico Collins · HOU · WR

Targets
7.6 mean · 8.0 median · 4.0–11.0 80%
Receptions
5.1 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receiving yards
80 mean · 80 median · 32–127 80%
Receiving TD
37% 1+
High

Xavier Hutchinson · HOU · WR

Targets
4.6 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
2.6 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
34 mean · 26 median · 13–64 80%
Receiving TD
16% 1+
High

Jared Wayne · HOU · WR

Targets
2.9 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
1.8 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
25 mean · 23 median · 0–63 80%
Receiving TD
15% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Charlie Kolar · LAC · TE

Targets
4.3 mean · 4.0 median · 3.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
2.9 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
35 mean · 36 median · 14–60 80%
Receiving TD
22% 1+
Medium

David Njoku · LAC · TE

Targets
3.3 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
2.7 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
27 mean · 27 median · 0–56 80%
Receiving TD
21% 1+
High

Tre' Harris · LAC · WR

Targets
5.0 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
3.3 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
46 mean · 42 median · 15–69 80%
Receiving TD
16% 1+
Medium

Quentin Johnston · LAC · WR

Targets
4.2 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
2.0 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
30 mean · 27 median · 0–72 80%
Receiving TD
16% 1+
High

Ladd McConkey · LAC · WR

Targets
4.8 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
2.6 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
35 mean · 27 median · 13–67 80%
Receiving TD
19% 1+
High

10 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Other PardonMe models (comparison)

The PA-1 simulation above is the forecast of record. These earlier models are kept for comparison and are not combined with it.

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

HOU 23.1 — LAC 19.5

HOU · 64.4% win probability

Margin
HOU 3.6
Total
42.6

As of Nov 3, 2026 11:36 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

HOUWeek 9 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Official depth needs a current update.

RB: Official depth needs a current update.

TE: Official depth needs a current update.

WR: Official depth needs a current update.

WR: Official depth needs a current update.

WR: Official depth needs a current update.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — C.J. Stroud · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Davis Mills · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — David Montgomery · Out

RB official #2 — Woody Marks · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — Player 3289 · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Dalton Schultz · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Foster Moreau · Current status: Transaction Effective

TE official #3 — Marlin Klein · Availability unknown

TE official #4 — Cade Stover · Availability unknown

TE official #5 — Brevin Jordan · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Nico Collins · Limited

WR official #2 — Player 20 · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Xavier Hutchinson · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Kayshon Boutte · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Jaylin Noel · Reserve status: Active Nfi

LACWeek 9 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Justin Herbert · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — DJ Uiagalelei · Current status: Transaction Effective

RB official #1 — Omarion Hampton · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Keaton Mitchell · Limited

RB official #3 — Kimani Vidal · Current status: Transaction Effective

TE official #1 — Charlie Kolar · Full

TE official #2 — Oronde Gadsden · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — Player 2502 · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Ladd McConkey · Full

WR official #2 — Tre' Harris · Availability unknown

WR official #3 — Derius Davis · Availability unknown

WR official #3 — Theo Wease Jr. · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Quentin Johnston · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Brenen Thompson · Doubtful

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonHOULAC
Projected points22.017.6
Win probability (regulation)61.7%34.5%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status49 updates66 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 119 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 42 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

LAC recent scoring form vs HOU prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 10.7; opponent allowed 20.3.

HOU recent scoring form vs LAC prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 27.0; opponent allowed 23.0.