EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

LV at SF

Sunday, November 8 · 3:25 PM CST

LV 21.7 — SF 29.3

SF edge · SF 69.9%

Projected total 51.0 · Confidence: projected qb · limited input

PardonMe projects SF edge.

PA-1 game simulations

The early projection is retained. No updated pregame simulation is available.

EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

Nov 3, 1:27:52 AM CST · 4,000 D4 simulations · regulation only

Projected scoreLV 21.7 — SF 29.3
Expected total51.0
Regulation win probabilitiesLV 25.9% · SF 69.9%Tie 4.2%

Quarterbacks modeled

LV Kirk Cousins (canonical ID 1466) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.4891
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 3, 1:27:52 AM CST.

SF Brock Purdy (canonical ID 2499) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 1.4263
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 3, 1:27:52 AM CST.

Evidence and limitations

pa1-live-2026-v1.2 · code 6a49c346c23e3e09c2068a77f9b90265cebbea31 · model 1f046faa41fbfd51e7a438d974f77f2067f52157aef5aa4c597d9e167fdb7c1b · record 7c7ae4ee66eb1c0b3ec5bb41346eab7cb2f5b753e13c11f8b01da135c9a01230

Evidence cutoff: Nov 3, 1:27:52 AM CST. Unknown availability stays unknown; a projected lineup is not a confirmed healthy lineup.

  • LV: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • SF: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • LV: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • SF: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • Current official injury report completeness unproven; absence is not a healthy designation.
  • Projected from official depth order and known eligibility; no confirmed starter announcement required.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-10-25 15:55:14.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-11-01 16:55:01.
  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.
Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models — separate from the PA-1 game simulation. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

Kirk Cousins · LV

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Brock Purdy · SF

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Running back ranges

Ashton Jeanty · LV

Opportunities
12.9 mean · 12.0 median · 1.0–23.0 80%
Carries
9.4 mean · 9.0 median · 0.0–17.0 80%
Targets
3.4 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–7.0 80%
Rushing yards
40 mean · 37 median · 0–72 80%
Receptions
2.6 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
24 mean · 20 median · 0–49 80%
Total TD
33% 1+
Medium

Mike Washington Jr. · LV

Opportunities
9.9 mean · 9.0 median · 2.0–19.0 80%
Carries
8.3 mean · 7.0 median · 2.0–16.0 80%
Targets
1.6 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Rushing yards
29 mean · 24 median · 0–64 80%
Receptions
1.3 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
10 mean · 7 median · 0–25 80%
Total TD
22% 1+
Medium

Kaelon Black · SF

Opportunities
10.1 mean · 8.0 median · 5.0–18.0 80%
Carries
8.8 mean · 7.0 median · 4.0–15.0 80%
Targets
1.3 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Rushing yards
35 mean · 28 median · 14–64 80%
Receptions
1.0 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
7 mean · 6 median · 0–19 80%
Total TD
25% 1+
Medium

Christian McCaffrey · SF

Opportunities
17.5 mean · 18.0 median · 10.0–27.0 80%
Carries
12.5 mean · 12.0 median · 6.0–20.0 80%
Targets
4.9 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Rushing yards
58 mean · 55 median · 28–94 80%
Receptions
3.8 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
28 mean · 26 median · 7–49 80%
Total TD
47% 1+
High

Receiver and tight end ranges

Brock Bowers · LV · TE

Targets
7.2 mean · 8.0 median · 3.0–11.0 80%
Receptions
5.2 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receiving yards
60 mean · 62 median · 16–96 80%
Receiving TD
35% 1+
High

Michael Mayer · LV · TE

Targets
4.2 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.2 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
33 mean · 22 median · 0–74 80%
Receiving TD
16% 1+
High

Jalen Nailor · LV · WR

Targets
3.0 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receptions
1.8 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
22 mean · 23 median · 0–46 80%
Receiving TD
18% 1+
High

Tre Tucker · LV · WR

Targets
6.2 mean · 6.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.9 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
56 mean · 57 median · 14–100 80%
Receiving TD
30% 1+
High

George Kittle · SF · TE

Targets
6.8 mean · 7.0 median · 4.0–10.0 80%
Receptions
5.2 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receiving yards
64 mean · 64 median · 28–101 80%
Receiving TD
33% 1+
High

Brayden Willis · SF · TE

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Insufficient Evidence

Mike Evans · SF · WR

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

Demarcus Robinson · SF · WR

Targets
3.9 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
3.1 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
40 mean · 37 median · 25–62 80%
Receiving TD
23% 1+
High

De'Zhaun Stribling · SF · WR

Targets
4.8 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.0 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
38 mean · 25 median · 13–76 80%
Receiving TD
20% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

10 individualized projections · 1 baseline projection. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Other PardonMe models (comparison)

The PA-1 simulation above is the forecast of record. These earlier models are kept for comparison and are not combined with it.

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

LV 22.3 — SF 25.4

SF · 54.4% win probability

Margin
SF 3.1
Total
47.7

As of Nov 3, 2026 11:36 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

LVWeek 9 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Kirk Cousins · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Fernando Mendoza · Availability unknown

QB official #3 — Aidan O'Connell · Did not participate

RB official #1 — Ashton Jeanty · Full

RB official #2 — Mike Washington Jr. · Questionable

RB official #3 — Dylan Laube · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Brock Bowers · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Michael Mayer · Current status: Transaction Effective

TE official #3 — Ian Thomas · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Tre Tucker · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Jack Bech · Questionable

WR official #3 — Cody White · Availability unknown

WR official #3 — Dareke Young · Full

WR official #1 — Jalen Nailor · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Malik Benson · Full

SFWeek 9 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Backup availability is not confirmed.

WR: Official depth is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Brock Purdy · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Mac Jones · Availability unknown

QB official #3 — Kurtis Rourke · Inactive for Week 7

RB official #1 — Christian McCaffrey · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Kaelon Black · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — Jordan James · Inactive for Week 4

TE official #1 — George Kittle · Reserve status: Active Pup

TE official #2 — Luke Farrell · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — Brayden Willis · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Mike Evans · Out

WR official #2 — Jacob Cowing · Full

WR official #3 — Christian Kirk · Out

WR official #2 — Jordan Watkins · Inactive for Week 2

WR official #3 — Player 3074 · Availability unknown

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonLVSF
Projected points21.729.3
Win probability (regulation)25.9%69.9%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status76 updates68 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 115 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 34 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

SF recent scoring form vs LV prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 25.0; opponent allowed 33.7.

LV recent scoring form vs SF prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 29.7; opponent allowed 25.0.