EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

GB at NE

Sunday, November 8 · 3:25 PM CST

GB 20.7 — NE 21.8

Nearly even · NE 51.1%

Projected total 42.5 · Confidence: projected qb · limited input

PardonMe projects Nearly even.

PA-1 game simulations

The early projection is retained. No updated pregame simulation is available.

EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

Nov 3, 1:28:27 AM CST · 4,000 D4 simulations · regulation only

Projected scoreGB 20.7 — NE 21.8
Expected total42.5
Regulation win probabilitiesGB 44.2% · NE 51.1%Tie 4.8%

Quarterbacks modeled

GB Jordan Love (canonical ID 1025) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.7154
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 3, 1:28:27 AM CST.

NE Drake Maye (canonical ID 1939) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.9765
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 3, 1:28:27 AM CST.

Evidence and limitations

pa1-live-2026-v1.2 · code 6a49c346c23e3e09c2068a77f9b90265cebbea31 · model 1f046faa41fbfd51e7a438d974f77f2067f52157aef5aa4c597d9e167fdb7c1b · record d4b3c49d9bd5714c559efc61581e427107da0fae61b18240a00cef230dd7089f

Evidence cutoff: Nov 3, 1:28:27 AM CST. Unknown availability stays unknown; a projected lineup is not a confirmed healthy lineup.

  • GB: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • NE: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • GB: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • NE: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • Current official injury report completeness unproven; absence is not a healthy designation.
  • Projected from official depth order and known eligibility; no confirmed starter announcement required.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-11-01 20:20:08.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-10-29 23:09:58.
  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.
Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models — separate from the PA-1 game simulation. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

Jordan Love · GB

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Drake Maye · NE

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Running back ranges

Josh Jacobs · GB

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

MarShawn Lloyd · GB

Opportunities
8.9 mean · 7.0 median · 4.0–16.0 80%
Carries
6.9 mean · 6.0 median · 3.0–12.0 80%
Targets
1.9 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Rushing yards
31 mean · 27 median · 16–52 80%
Receptions
1.6 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
12 mean · 12 median · 0–28 80%
Total TD
30% 1+
Medium

Rhamondre Stevenson · NE

Opportunities
15.1 mean · 14.0 median · 9.0–24.0 80%
Carries
11.3 mean · 10.0 median · 6.0–18.0 80%
Targets
3.8 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Rushing yards
54 mean · 47 median · 25–93 80%
Receptions
2.7 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
22 mean · 19 median · 7–43 80%
Total TD
39% 1+
High

Receiver and tight end ranges

Tucker Kraft · GB · TE

Targets
6.2 mean · 6.0 median · 3.0–10.0 80%
Receptions
4.1 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
48 mean · 48 median · 13–83 80%
Receiving TD
29% 1+
High

Jonnu Smith · GB · TE

Targets
1.9 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receptions
1.3 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
12 mean · 7 median · 0–25 80%
Receiving TD
11% 1+
High

Matthew Golden · GB · WR

Targets
7.6 mean · 7.0 median · 2.0–13.0 80%
Receptions
4.3 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
Receiving yards
59 mean · 60 median · 17–116 80%
Receiving TD
31% 1+
Medium

J. Michael Sturdivant · GB · WR

Targets
2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
1.5 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
17 mean · 7 median · 0–43 80%
Receiving TD
11% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Christian Watson · GB · WR

Targets
6.5 mean · 7.0 median · 3.0–10.0 80%
Receptions
4.4 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
73 mean · 67 median · 33–116 80%
Receiving TD
41% 1+
High

Hunter Henry · NE · TE

Targets
3.3 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
3.1 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
40 mean · 35 median · 23–67 80%
Receiving TD
22% 1+
High

Eli Raridon · NE · TE

Targets
4.7 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
2.8 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
34 mean · 26 median · 13–61 80%
Receiving TD
20% 1+
Medium

Romeo Doubs · NE · WR

Targets
3.6 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
2.7 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
45 mean · 43 median · 12–89 80%
Receiving TD
30% 1+
High

DeMario Douglas · NE · WR

Targets
6.0 mean · 5.0 median · 4.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
4.2 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
52 mean · 51 median · 26–88 80%
Receiving TD
31% 1+
High

Mack Hollins · NE · WR

Targets
5.2 mean · 5.0 median · 1.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.8 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
50 mean · 51 median · 13–89 80%
Receiving TD
16% 1+
High

12 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Other PardonMe models (comparison)

The PA-1 simulation above is the forecast of record. These earlier models are kept for comparison and are not combined with it.

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

GB 21.0 — NE 24.1

NE · 54.7% win probability

Margin
NE 3.1
Total
45.1

As of Nov 3, 2026 11:36 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

GBWeek 9 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Jordan Love · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Tyrod Taylor · Current status: Transaction Effective

RB official #1 — Josh Jacobs · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — MarShawn Lloyd · Questionable

RB official #3 — Pierre Strong Jr. · Practice squad

TE official #1 — Tucker Kraft · Current status: Returned To Practice

TE official #2 — Jonnu Smith · Current status: Transaction Effective

TE official #3 — Mark Redman · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Matthew Golden · Questionable

WR official #2 — J. Michael Sturdivant · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Savion Williams · Limited

WR official #2 — Coleman Owen · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Christian Watson · Limited

WR official #2 — Bo Melton · Questionable

NEWeek 9 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Backup availability is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Drake Maye · Full

QB official #2 — Tommy DeVito · Availability unknown

QB official #3 — Behren Morton · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Rhamondre Stevenson · Questionable

RB official #2 — TreVeyon Henderson · Out

RB official #3 — Corey Kiner · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Hunter Henry · Questionable

TE official #2 — Eli Raridon · Limited

TE official #3 — Tanner Arkin · Availability unknown

TE official #4 — Cameron Latu · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — DeMario Douglas · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Kyle Williams · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — A.J. Brown · Out

WR official #2 — Efton Chism III · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Efton Chism III · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Kyle Williams · Availability unknown

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonGBNE
Projected points20.721.8
Win probability (regulation)44.2%51.1%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status54 updates74 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 146 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 46 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

NE recent scoring form vs GB prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 24.7; opponent allowed 17.3.

GB recent scoring form vs NE prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 22.3; opponent allowed 22.7.