UPDATED PREGAME SIMULATION

ARI at SEA

Sunday, November 8 · 3:25 PM CST

ARI 16.6 — SEA 25.6

SEA clear edge · SEA 74.0%

Projected total 42.2 · Confidence: projected qb · limited input

PardonMe projects SEA clear edge.

PA-1 game simulations

2 updated simulations have been published; the newest is shown. Each is retained.

UPDATED PREGAME SIMULATION

Nov 6, 4:42:33 PM CST · 4,000 D4 simulations · regulation only

Projected scoreARI 16.6 — SEA 25.6
Expected total42.2
Regulation win probabilitiesARI 22.5% · SEA 74.0%Tie 3.5%

Quarterbacks modeled

ARI Gardner Minshew II (canonical ID 29) · CONFIRMED · D4 capability -0.2533
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 6, 4:42:33 PM CST.

SEA Drew Lock (canonical ID 2583) · PROJECTED · D4 capability -0.1942
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 6, 4:42:33 PM CST.

Alternative QB scenarios

Each available alternative uses another 4,000 draws with the other team's primary QB held fixed. These are conditional outcomes; no probability of starting is assigned.

Jalen Milroe (ID 2588): capability 0.0000 · ARI 16.6 — SEA 26.0 · total 42.5 (change +0.3) · SEA win 74.6% (change +0.6 percentage points).

Carson Beck (ID 3): capability 0.0000 · ARI 16.7 — SEA 25.6 · total 42.4 (change +0.2) · SEA win 73.4% (change -0.7 percentage points).

Evidence and limitations

pa1-live-2026-v1.2 · code b668552219d54ed8f55b67869a53876e7f138d55 · model 1f046faa41fbfd51e7a438d974f77f2067f52157aef5aa4c597d9e167fdb7c1b · record 4023b1b244347b41335fc8ce8a334cd6fd8592c594653e7f1faa099cf1023af2

Evidence cutoff: Nov 6, 4:42:33 PM CST. Unknown availability stays unknown; a projected lineup is not a confirmed healthy lineup.

  • ARI: no verified-complete official inactive list (DESIGNATIONS_ONLY)
  • SEA: no verified-complete official inactive list (DESIGNATIONS_ONLY)
  • SEA: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • Projected from official depth order and known eligibility; no confirmed starter announcement required.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-11-06 22:30:48.
  • Newer official depth chart names a different quarterback than the previous game; the chart is used and the previous starter is run as a separate scenario.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-11-06 22:30:47.
  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.

EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

Nov 3, 1:29:03 AM CST · 4,000 D4 simulations · regulation only

Projected scoreARI 16.4 — SEA 26.0
Expected total42.3
Regulation win probabilitiesARI 21.5% · SEA 74.9%Tie 3.6%

Quarterbacks modeled

ARI Jacoby Brissett (canonical ID 7) · PROJECTED · D4 capability -0.4850
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 3, 1:29:03 AM CST.

SEA Sam Darnold (canonical ID 2571) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.0597
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 3, 1:29:03 AM CST.

Evidence and limitations

pa1-live-2026-v1.2 · code 6a49c346c23e3e09c2068a77f9b90265cebbea31 · model 1f046faa41fbfd51e7a438d974f77f2067f52157aef5aa4c597d9e167fdb7c1b · record 462adaf28d60931be2f7bd20c3e4f950c6fafc94bf5cb74acb3d0fe6eb53d922

Evidence cutoff: Nov 3, 1:29:03 AM CST. Unknown availability stays unknown; a projected lineup is not a confirmed healthy lineup.

  • ARI: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • SEA: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • ARI: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • SEA: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • Current official injury report completeness unproven; absence is not a healthy designation.
  • Projected from official depth order and known eligibility; no confirmed starter announcement required.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-11-03 00:09:58.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-11-01 16:54:59.
  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.

Change from early to updated: total -0.1 points; home win probability -0.9 percentage points. Both original records remain available above.

Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models — separate from the PA-1 game simulation. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

Jacoby Brissett · ARI

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Sam Darnold · SEA

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Running back ranges

Tyler Allgeier · ARI

Opportunities
12.0 mean · 11.0 median · 5.0–19.0 80%
Carries
9.6 mean · 9.0 median · 4.0–16.0 80%
Targets
2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Rushing yards
37 mean · 31 median · 13–66 80%
Receptions
1.8 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
13 mean · 10 median · 0–29 80%
Total TD
28% 1+
High

Jeremiyah Love · ARI

Opportunities
12.5 mean · 12.0 median · 6.0–23.0 80%
Carries
10.8 mean · 10.0 median · 5.0–19.0 80%
Targets
1.7 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Rushing yards
44 mean · 40 median · 21–77 80%
Receptions
1.5 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
11 mean · 8 median · 0–26 80%
Total TD
34% 1+
Medium

George Holani · SEA

Opportunities
7.2 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–15.0 80%
Carries
5.2 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–11.0 80%
Targets
2.0 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Rushing yards
29 mean · 25 median · 15–52 80%
Receptions
1.7 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
13 mean · 9 median · 0–29 80%
Total TD
27% 1+
Medium

Emanuel Wilson · SEA

Opportunities
14.6 mean · 13.0 median · 6.0–23.0 80%
Carries
13.8 mean · 13.0 median · 6.0–22.0 80%
Targets
0.8 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
Rushing yards
57 mean · 53 median · 24–93 80%
Receptions
0.7 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
Receiving yards
7 mean · 0 median · 0–24 80%
Total TD
38% 1+
Medium

Receiver and tight end ranges

Elijah Higgins · ARI · TE

Targets
2.6 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receptions
2.2 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
24 mean · 19 median · 0–38 80%
Receiving TD
14% 1+
High

Trey McBride · ARI · TE

Targets
8.2 mean · 9.0 median · 3.0–12.0 80%
Receptions
6.1 mean · 6.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receiving yards
54 mean · 55 median · 20–81 80%
Receiving TD
34% 1+
High

Kendrick Bourne · ARI · WR

Targets
5.4 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.8 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
43 mean · 43 median · 21–75 80%
Receiving TD
18% 1+
High

Jalen Brooks · ARI · WR

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium

Michael Wilson · ARI · WR

Targets
6.9 mean · 6.0 median · 1.0–13.0 80%
Receptions
4.0 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
Receiving yards
51 mean · 41 median · 15–103 80%
Receiving TD
31% 1+
High

AJ Barner · SEA · TE

Targets
5.9 mean · 6.0 median · 3.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
3.4 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
35 mean · 31 median · 10–61 80%
Receiving TD
23% 1+
High

Eric Saubert · SEA · TE

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

Irv Charles · SEA · WR

Targets
1.8 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
1.3 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
17 mean · 0 median · 0–51 80%
Receiving TD
13% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Cooper Kupp · SEA · WR

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

Jaxon Smith-Njigba · SEA · WR

Targets
11.5 mean · 12.0 median · 7.0–16.0 80%
Receptions
8.3 mean · 8.0 median · 4.0–12.0 80%
Receiving yards
117 mean · 121 median · 64–163 80%
Receiving TD
56% 1+
High

11 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Other PardonMe models (comparison)

The PA-1 simulation above is the forecast of record. These earlier models are kept for comparison and are not combined with it.

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

ARI 20.0 — SEA 22.7

SEA · 53.3% win probability

Margin
SEA 2.8
Total
42.7

As of Nov 3, 2026 11:36 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

ARIWeek 9 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Gardner Minshew II · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Tyler Allgeier · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Bam Knight · Out

RB official #3 — Evan Hull · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Trey McBride · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Elijah Higgins · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Teagan Quitoriano · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Simi Fehoko · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Reggie Virgil · Full

WR official #3 — Devin Duvernay · Did not participate

WR official #1 — Michael Wilson · Limited

WR official #2 — Harrison Wallace III · Availability unknown

SEAWeek 9 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Backup availability is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Official depth order is ambiguous.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Sam Darnold · Out

QB official #2 — Drew Lock · Limited

QB official #3 — Jalen Milroe · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Zach Charbonnet · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Jadarian Price · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — Emanuel Wilson · Current status: Transaction Effective

RB official #4 — George Holani · Full

RB official #5 — Velus Jones Jr. · Limited

TE official #1 — AJ Barner · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Eric Saubert · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — Nick Kallerup · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Jaxon Smith-Njigba · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Tory Horton · Full

WR official #1 — Cooper Kupp · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Rashid Shaheed · Out

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonARISEA
Projected points16.625.6
Win probability (regulation)22.5%74.0%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status35 updates46 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 142 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 28 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

SEA recent scoring form vs ARI prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 17.0; opponent allowed 25.3.

ARI recent scoring form vs SEA prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 22.3; opponent allowed 18.0.