EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

TB at CHI

Sunday, November 8 · 7:20 PM CST

TB 19.7 — CHI 23.1

CHI slight edge · CHI 58.2%

Projected total 42.8 · Confidence: projected qb · limited input

PardonMe projects CHI slight edge.

PA-1 game simulations

The early projection is retained. No updated pregame simulation is available.

EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

Nov 3, 1:29:37 AM CST · 4,000 D4 simulations · regulation only

Projected scoreTB 19.7 — CHI 23.1
Expected total42.8
Regulation win probabilitiesTB 37.9% · CHI 58.2%Tie 3.9%

Quarterbacks modeled

CHI Caleb Williams (canonical ID 499) · PROJECTED · D4 capability -0.1752
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 3, 1:29:37 AM CST.

TB Baker Mayfield (canonical ID 2680) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.1170
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 3, 1:29:37 AM CST.

Evidence and limitations

pa1-live-2026-v1.2 · code 6a49c346c23e3e09c2068a77f9b90265cebbea31 · model 1f046faa41fbfd51e7a438d974f77f2067f52157aef5aa4c597d9e167fdb7c1b · record accbfab5c733edb48d4dc8e4569758ad6444b2686bf9f5c166a438d59b5c5eb5

Evidence cutoff: Nov 3, 1:29:37 AM CST. Unknown availability stays unknown; a projected lineup is not a confirmed healthy lineup.

  • CHI: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • TB: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • CHI: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • TB: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • Current official injury report completeness unproven; absence is not a healthy designation.
  • Projected from official depth order and known eligibility; no confirmed starter announcement required.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-11-03 00:09:58.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-11-01 16:55:02.
  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.
Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models — separate from the PA-1 game simulation. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

Caleb Williams · CHI

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Baker Mayfield · TB

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Running back ranges

Kyle Monangai · CHI

Opportunities
12.1 mean · 10.0 median · 5.0–21.0 80%
Carries
10.5 mean · 9.0 median · 5.0–19.0 80%
Targets
1.6 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Rushing yards
45 mean · 37 median · 18–84 80%
Receptions
1.2 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
9 mean · 8 median · 0–23 80%
Total TD
30% 1+
Medium

D'Andre Swift · CHI

Opportunities
17.9 mean · 18.0 median · 11.0–26.0 80%
Carries
15.0 mean · 15.0 median · 9.0–22.0 80%
Targets
2.9 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Rushing yards
57 mean · 54 median · 27–89 80%
Receptions
2.1 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
15 mean · 14 median · 0–31 80%
Total TD
46% 1+
High

Bucky Irving · TB

Opportunities
19.6 mean · 19.0 median · 12.0–27.0 80%
Carries
16.8 mean · 17.0 median · 10.0–24.0 80%
Targets
2.8 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Rushing yards
71 mean · 69 median · 38–106 80%
Receptions
2.1 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
15 mean · 13 median · 0–28 80%
Total TD
42% 1+
High

Receiver and tight end ranges

Cole Kmet · CHI · TE

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

Colston Loveland · CHI · TE

Targets
7.0 mean · 6.0 median · 3.0–13.0 80%
Receptions
4.7 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–9.0 80%
Receiving yards
50 mean · 46 median · 15–89 80%
Receiving TD
27% 1+
Medium

Luther Burden III · CHI · WR

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium

Rome Odunze · CHI · WR

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

Jahdae Walker · CHI · WR

Targets
2.1 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receptions
1.6 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
21 mean · 13 median · 0–50 80%
Receiving TD
19% 1+
Medium

Payne Durham · TB · TE

Targets
2.2 mean · 1.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receptions
1.3 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
13 mean · 9 median · 0–31 80%
Receiving TD
10% 1+
Medium

Cade Otton · TB · TE

Targets
4.7 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
3.0 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
30 mean · 29 median · 10–59 80%
Receiving TD
18% 1+
High

Emeka Egbuka · TB · WR

Targets
6.8 mean · 6.0 median · 3.0–10.0 80%
Receptions
4.0 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
43 mean · 37 median · 15–78 80%
Receiving TD
24% 1+
Medium

Chris Godwin Jr. · TB · WR

Targets
6.8 mean · 7.0 median · 3.0–10.0 80%
Receptions
5.3 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–8.0 80%
Receiving yards
54 mean · 55 median · 26–84 80%
Receiving TD
26% 1+
High

Jalen McMillan · TB · WR

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium

9 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Other PardonMe models (comparison)

The PA-1 simulation above is the forecast of record. These earlier models are kept for comparison and are not combined with it.

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

TB 21.1 — CHI 25.1

CHI · 57.9% win probability

Margin
CHI 4.0
Total
46.2

As of Nov 3, 2026 11:36 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

TBWeek 9 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Baker Mayfield · Full

QB official #2 — Jalon Daniels · Current status: Transaction Effective

RB official #1 — Bucky Irving · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Kenny Gainwell · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — Sean Tucker · Full

TE official #1 — Cade Otton · Full

TE official #2 — Payne Durham · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — Ko Kieft · Did not participate

TE official #4 — Bauer Sharp · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Emeka Egbuka · Questionable

WR official #2 — Tez Johnson · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Ted Hurst III · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — David Sills V · Reserve/Injured

WR official #1 — Chris Godwin Jr. · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Kameron Johnson · Availability unknown

CHIWeek 9 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Caleb Williams · Questionable

QB official #2 — Tyson Bagent · Availability unknown

QB official #3 — Case Keenum · Current status: Transaction Effective

RB official #1 — D'Andre Swift · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Kyle Monangai · Questionable

RB official #3 — Roschon Johnson · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Colston Loveland · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Sam Roush · Current status: Transaction Effective

WR official #1 — Luther Burden III · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Jahdae Walker · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Rome Odunze · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Zavion Thomas · Current status: Transaction Effective

WR official #1 — Kalif Raymond · Current status: Transaction Effective

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonTBCHI
Projected points19.723.1
Win probability (regulation)37.9%58.2%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status75 updates77 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 147 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 27 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

CHI recent scoring form vs TB prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 31.7; opponent allowed 13.0.

TB recent scoring form vs CHI prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 26.0; opponent allowed 21.3.