UPDATED PREGAME SIMULATION

BUF at MIN

Monday, November 9 · 7:15 PM CST

BUF 23.1 — MIN 20.4

BUF slight edge · BUF 56.9%

Projected total 43.5 · Confidence: projected qb · limited input

PardonMe projects BUF slight edge.

PA-1 game simulations

UPDATED PREGAME SIMULATION

Nov 5, 1:42:33 PM CST · 4,000 D4 simulations · regulation only

Projected scoreBUF 23.1 — MIN 20.4
Expected total43.5
Regulation win probabilitiesBUF 56.9% · MIN 38.9%Tie 4.3%

Quarterbacks modeled

BUF Josh Allen (canonical ID 277) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.5214
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 5, 1:42:33 PM CST.

MIN Carson Wentz (canonical ID 1863) · CONFIRMED · D4 capability -0.3654
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 5, 1:42:33 PM CST.

Alternative QB scenarios

Each available alternative uses another 4,000 draws with the other team's primary QB held fixed. These are conditional outcomes; no probability of starting is assigned.

Kyler Murray (ID 1850): capability -0.1134 · BUF 23.1 — MIN 20.7 · total 43.8 (change +0.3) · MIN win 40.0% (change +1.1 percentage points).

Evidence and limitations

pa1-live-2026-v1.2 · code b668552219d54ed8f55b67869a53876e7f138d55 · model 1f046faa41fbfd51e7a438d974f77f2067f52157aef5aa4c597d9e167fdb7c1b · record 88150fa7485a78d14673c577d5d5a6479d9cac08572713b4f98b81b1f3934c69

Evidence cutoff: Nov 5, 1:42:33 PM CST. Unknown availability stays unknown; a projected lineup is not a confirmed healthy lineup.

  • BUF: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • MIN: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • BUF: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • Projected from the quarterback who led the previous completed game; no newer official depth chart or announcement contradicts it.
  • Current official injury report completeness unproven; absence is not a healthy designation.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-11-01 16:55:01.
  • Projected from official depth order and known eligibility; no confirmed starter announcement required.
  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.

EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

Nov 3, 1:30:12 AM CST · 4,000 D4 simulations · regulation only

Projected scoreBUF 23.1 — MIN 20.7
Expected total43.8
Regulation win probabilitiesBUF 55.9% · MIN 40.0%Tie 4.2%

Quarterbacks modeled

BUF Josh Allen (canonical ID 277) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.5214
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 3, 1:30:11 AM CST.

MIN Kyler Murray (canonical ID 1850) · PROJECTED · D4 capability -0.1134
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 3, 1:30:11 AM CST.

Evidence and limitations

pa1-live-2026-v1.2 · code 6a49c346c23e3e09c2068a77f9b90265cebbea31 · model 1f046faa41fbfd51e7a438d974f77f2067f52157aef5aa4c597d9e167fdb7c1b · record 8e056085a5e0ad97953300f5cfd17f0c3f7a1b458ae88d329f2e348a5c220146

Evidence cutoff: Nov 3, 1:30:11 AM CST. Unknown availability stays unknown; a projected lineup is not a confirmed healthy lineup.

  • BUF: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • MIN: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • BUF: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • MIN: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • Current official injury report completeness unproven; absence is not a healthy designation.
  • Projected from official depth order and known eligibility; no confirmed starter announcement required.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-11-01 16:55:01.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-11-01 16:54:59.
  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.

Change from early to updated: total -0.3 points; home win probability -1.1 percentage points. Both original records remain available above.

Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models — separate from the PA-1 game simulation. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

Josh Allen · BUF

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Kyler Murray · MIN

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Running back ranges

James Cook III · BUF

Opportunities
18.8 mean · 21.0 median · 10.0–24.0 80%
Carries
16.7 mean · 18.0 median · 8.0–22.0 80%
Targets
2.1 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Rushing yards
75 mean · 77 median · 33–113 80%
Receptions
1.6 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
13 mean · 11 median · 0–29 80%
Total TD
45% 1+
High

Ty Johnson · BUF

Opportunities
4.7 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–12.0 80%
Carries
2.8 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–9.0 80%
Targets
1.8 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Rushing yards
18 mean · 14 median · 0–44 80%
Receptions
1.5 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
13 mean · 8 median · 0–32 80%
Total TD
18% 1+
High

Demond Claiborne · MIN

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Insufficient Evidence

Aaron Jones Sr. · MIN

Opportunities
15.4 mean · 14.0 median · 6.0–26.0 80%
Carries
12.8 mean · 12.0 median · 5.0–21.0 80%
Targets
2.6 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Rushing yards
53 mean · 49 median · 21–89 80%
Receptions
2.0 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
15 mean · 13 median · 0–31 80%
Total TD
35% 1+
High

Receiver and tight end ranges

Dalton Kincaid · BUF · TE

Targets
5.0 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
4.0 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
55 mean · 56 median · 29–97 80%
Receiving TD
24% 1+
High

Dawson Knox · BUF · TE

Targets
2.9 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
2.1 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
20 mean · 18 median · 8–46 80%
Receiving TD
15% 1+
High

Keon Coleman · BUF · WR

Targets
5.2 mean · 4.0 median · 3.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
43 mean · 39 median · 12–80 80%
Receiving TD
30% 1+
High

DJ Moore · BUF · WR

Targets
5.2 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
46 mean · 45 median · 16–89 80%
Receiving TD
33% 1+
High

Khalil Shakir · BUF · WR

Targets
6.1 mean · 6.0 median · 4.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
4.4 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
50 mean · 47 median · 24–82 80%
Receiving TD
22% 1+
High

T.J. Hockenson · MIN · TE

Targets
5.0 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
3.8 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
37 mean · 39 median · 11–58 80%
Receiving TD
22% 1+
High

Josh Oliver · MIN · TE

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

Jordan Addison · MIN · WR

Targets
6.4 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–11.0 80%
Receptions
3.3 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
47 mean · 44 median · 15–88 80%
Receiving TD
21% 1+
High

Justin Jefferson · MIN · WR

Targets
6.9 mean · 7.0 median · 3.0–10.0 80%
Receptions
4.4 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
52 mean · 50 median · 17–85 80%
Receiving TD
29% 1+
High

Jauan Jennings · MIN · WR

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

11 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Other PardonMe models (comparison)

The PA-1 simulation above is the forecast of record. These earlier models are kept for comparison and are not combined with it.

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

BUF 24.5 — MIN 22.1

BUF · 61.3% win probability

Margin
BUF 2.4
Total
46.6

As of Nov 3, 2026 11:36 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

BUFWeek 9 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Expected lineup needs a current update.

RB: Expected lineup needs a current update.

TE: Expected lineup needs a current update.

WR: Expected lineup needs a current update.

WR: Expected lineup needs a current update.

WR: Expected lineup needs a current update.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Josh Allen · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Kyle Allen · Current status: Transaction Effective

RB official #1 — James Cook III · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Ray Davis · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — Ty Johnson · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Dalton Kincaid · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Dawson Knox · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — Jackson Hawes · Availability unknown

TE official #4 — Keleki Latu · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Khalil Shakir · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Greg Dortch · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — DJ Moore · Limited

WR official #2 — Skyler Bell · Inactive for Week 1

WR official #1 — Keon Coleman · Limited

WR official #2 — Joshua Palmer · Inactive for Week 5

MINWeek 9 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Expected lineup needs a current update.

RB: Expected lineup needs a current update.

TE: Expected lineup needs a current update.

WR: Expected lineup needs a current update.

WR: Expected lineup needs a current update.

WR: Expected lineup needs a current update.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Carson Wentz · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Jordan Mason · Questionable

RB official #1 — Aaron Jones Sr. · Limited

RB official #2 — Demond Claiborne · Out

RB official #3 — DeeJay Dallas · Current status: Transaction Effective

TE official #1 — T.J. Hockenson · Full

TE official #2 — Gavin Bartholomew · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Justin Jefferson · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Tai Felton · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Jordan Addison · Full

WR official #1 — Jauan Jennings · Out

WR official #2 — Myles Price · Availability unknown

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonBUFMIN
Projected points23.120.4
Win probability (regulation)56.9%38.9%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status61 updates66 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 132 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 42 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

BUF recent scoring form vs MIN prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 35.3; opponent allowed 14.0.

MIN recent scoring form vs BUF prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 18.0; opponent allowed 24.7.