EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

WAS at NYG

Thursday, November 12 · 7:15 PM CST

WAS 20.1 — NYG 22.8

NYG slight edge · NYG 56.5%

Projected total 42.9 · Confidence: projected qb · limited input

PardonMe projects NYG slight edge.

PA-1 game simulations

The early projection is retained. No updated pregame simulation is available.

EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

Nov 10, 1:22:33 AM CST · 4,000 D4 simulations · regulation only

Projected scoreWAS 20.1 — NYG 22.8
Expected total42.9
Regulation win probabilitiesWAS 39.2% · NYG 56.5%Tie 4.4%

Quarterbacks modeled

NYG J.J. McCarthy (canonical ID 1849) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.4529
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 10, 1:22:33 AM CST.

WAS Jayden Daniels (canonical ID 2848) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.1313
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 10, 1:22:33 AM CST.

Evidence and limitations

pa1-live-2026-v1.2 · code b668552219d54ed8f55b67869a53876e7f138d55 · model 7a80460eec2884d4d9a7c1b040983a14dcb298f6c5793670d58c81d0e498088e · record cb182cc6a11de8d48166c43394e7edf826cc5935b5f1094c50997e861c7efc0d

Evidence cutoff: Nov 10, 1:22:33 AM CST. Unknown availability stays unknown; a projected lineup is not a confirmed healthy lineup.

  • NYG: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • WAS: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • NYG: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • WAS: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • Projected from official depth order and known eligibility; no confirmed starter announcement required.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-11-10 07:20:46.
  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.
Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models — separate from the PA-1 game simulation. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Quarterback ranges

Jameis Winston · NYG

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Jayden Daniels · WAS

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium uncertainty

Running back ranges

Devin Singletary · NYG

Opportunities
9.3 mean · 8.0 median · 3.0–18.0 80%
Carries
7.8 mean · 7.0 median · 2.0–15.0 80%
Targets
1.5 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Rushing yards
34 mean · 30 median · 12–62 80%
Receptions
1.3 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
11 mean · 7 median · 0–26 80%
Total TD
30% 1+
High

Cam Skattebo · NYG

Opportunities
15.9 mean · 16.0 median · 5.0–22.0 80%
Carries
13.4 mean · 14.0 median · 4.0–19.0 80%
Targets
2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Rushing yards
52 mean · 53 median · 13–81 80%
Receptions
2.0 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
16 mean · 14 median · 0–33 80%
Total TD
37% 1+
Medium

Jacory Croskey-Merritt · WAS

Opportunities
12.4 mean · 11.0 median · 7.0–19.0 80%
Carries
11.5 mean · 11.0 median · 6.0–18.0 80%
Targets
0.9 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
Rushing yards
50 mean · 45 median · 26–79 80%
Receptions
0.7 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
Receiving yards
6 mean · 0 median · 0–15 80%
Total TD
35% 1+
Medium

Rachaad White · WAS

Opportunities
12.8 mean · 11.0 median · 8.0–17.0 80%
Carries
9.5 mean · 9.0 median · 5.0–14.0 80%
Targets
3.3 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Rushing yards
43 mean · 39 median · 24–67 80%
Receptions
2.6 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
18 mean · 16 median · 6–36 80%
Total TD
32% 1+
High

Receiver and tight end ranges

Theo Johnson · NYG · TE

Targets
2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
1.7 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
22 mean · 24 median · 0–50 80%
Receiving TD
14% 1+
Medium

Isaiah Likely · NYG · TE

Targets
6.0 mean · 5.0 median · 1.0–11.0 80%
Receptions
4.1 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
Receiving yards
43 mean · 44 median · 12–85 80%
Receiving TD
28% 1+
High

Malachi Fields · NYG · WR

Targets
5.8 mean · 6.0 median · 3.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
46 mean · 44 median · 15–86 80%
Receiving TD
21% 1+
Medium

Darnell Mooney · NYG · WR

Targets
3.8 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
2.0 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
25 mean · 23 median · 0–50 80%
Receiving TD
12% 1+
High

Malik Nabers · NYG · WR

Targets
8.9 mean · 8.0 median · 3.0–15.0 80%
Receptions
5.9 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–11.0 80%
Receiving yards
75 mean · 69 median · 30–134 80%
Receiving TD
32% 1+
Medium

John Bates · WAS · TE

Targets
1.4 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receptions
1.0 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
9 mean · 7 median · 0–25 80%
Receiving TD
10% 1+
High

Chig Okonkwo · WAS · TE

Targets
4.4 mean · 5.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
3.0 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
29 mean · 31 median · 11–50 80%
Receiving TD
18% 1+
High

Treylon Burks · WAS · WR

Targets
4.5 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
37 mean · 31 median · 16–62 80%
Receiving TD
24% 1+
High

Terry McLaurin · WAS · WR

Targets
5.5 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
4.0 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
62 mean · 60 median · 16–119 80%
Receiving TD
29% 1+
High

Stefon Diggs · WAS · WR

Targets
7.1 mean · 7.0 median · 4.0–10.0 80%
Receptions
5.0 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receiving yards
60 mean · 61 median · 25–96 80%
Receiving TD
36% 1+
High

14 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Other PardonMe models (comparison)

The PA-1 simulation above is the forecast of record. These earlier models are kept for comparison and are not combined with it.

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

WAS 19.5 — NYG 23.4

NYG · 57.9% win probability

Margin
NYG 3.9
Total
42.9

As of Nov 10, 2026 11:36 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

WASWeek 10 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Jayden Daniels · Full

QB official #2 — Marcus Mariota · Full

QB official #3 — Athan Kaliakmanis · Current status: Transaction Effective

RB official #1 — Jacory Croskey-Merritt · Out

RB official #2 — Rachaad White · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — Player 3694 · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — John Bates · Limited

TE official #2 — Colson Yankoff · Full

TE official #1 — Chig Okonkwo · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Ben Sinnott · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Dyami Brown · Out

WR official #2 — Antonio Williams · Current status: Transaction Effective

WR official #3 — Luke McCaffrey · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Terry McLaurin · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Treylon Burks · Out

WR official #1 — Stefon Diggs · Did not participate

WR official #2 — Jaylin Lane · Availability unknown

NYGWeek 10 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — J.J. McCarthy · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Jameis Winston · Current status: Transaction Effective

RB official #1 — Cam Skattebo · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Devin Singletary · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Isaiah Likely · Full

TE official #2 — Theo Johnson · Full

TE official #3 — Chris Manhertz · Availability unknown

TE official #4 — Thomas Fidone II · Full

WR official #1 — Darnell Mooney · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Charlie Jones · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Malik Nabers · Full

WR official #2 — Malachi Fields · Availability unknown

WR official #3 — Jalin Hyatt · Availability unknown

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonWASNYG
Projected points20.122.8
Win probability (regulation)39.2%56.5%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status60 updates59 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 160 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 46 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

NYG recent scoring form vs WAS prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 24.3; opponent allowed 17.7.

WAS recent scoring form vs NYG prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 19.0; opponent allowed 22.0.