EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

NE at DET

Sunday, November 15 · 8:30 AM CST

NE 22.3 — DET 26.1

DET slight edge · DET 59.0%

Projected total 48.3 · Confidence: projected qb · limited input

PardonMe projects DET slight edge.

PA-1 game simulations

The early projection is retained. No updated pregame simulation is available.

EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

Nov 10, 1:23:04 AM CST · 4,000 D4 simulations · regulation only

Projected scoreNE 22.3 — DET 26.1
Expected total48.3
Regulation win probabilitiesNE 36.3% · DET 59.0%Tie 4.7%

Quarterbacks modeled

DET Jared Goff (canonical ID 925) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.6143
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 10, 1:23:04 AM CST.

NE Drake Maye (canonical ID 1939) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.9882
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 10, 1:23:04 AM CST.

Evidence and limitations

pa1-live-2026-v1.2 · code b668552219d54ed8f55b67869a53876e7f138d55 · model 7a80460eec2884d4d9a7c1b040983a14dcb298f6c5793670d58c81d0e498088e · record 02d05b83674952a1713bae3ccd93f90b974be6480221350e8629febf197cb93c

Evidence cutoff: Nov 10, 1:23:04 AM CST. Unknown availability stays unknown; a projected lineup is not a confirmed healthy lineup.

  • DET: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • NE: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • DET: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • NE: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • Projected from the quarterback who led the previous completed game; no newer official depth chart or announcement contradicts it.
  • Current official injury report completeness unproven; absence is not a healthy designation.
  • Projected from official depth order and known eligibility; no confirmed starter announcement required.
  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.
Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models — separate from the PA-1 game simulation. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Individual QB stat lines appear only when a starter is confirmed. The PA-1 game simulation above uses the quarterbacks it lists (projected or confirmed), so this section can differ from it.

Running back ranges

Jahmyr Gibbs · DET

Opportunities
26.3 mean · 26.0 median · 15.0–37.0 80%
Carries
20.4 mean · 20.0 median · 12.0–29.0 80%
Targets
5.9 mean · 6.0 median · 2.0–10.0 80%
Rushing yards
79 mean · 77 median · 38–119 80%
Receptions
4.3 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
33 mean · 31 median · 9–58 80%
Total TD
57% 1+
High

Sione Vaki · DET

Opportunities
8.5 mean · 6.0 median · 3.0–18.0 80%
Carries
6.9 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–15.0 80%
Targets
1.6 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Rushing yards
35 mean · 27 median · 13–70 80%
Receptions
1.3 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
10 mean · 7 median · 0–25 80%
Total TD
24% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Rhamondre Stevenson · NE

Opportunities
14.1 mean · 13.0 median · 8.0–23.0 80%
Carries
10.5 mean · 9.0 median · 6.0–17.0 80%
Targets
3.6 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Rushing yards
53 mean · 45 median · 25–89 80%
Receptions
2.7 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
22 mean · 20 median · 7–43 80%
Total TD
40% 1+
High

Receiver and tight end ranges

Sam LaPorta · DET · TE

Targets
5.0 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
3.5 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
40 mean · 35 median · 12–70 80%
Receiving TD
23% 1+
High

Brock Wright · DET · TE

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

Amon-Ra St. Brown · DET · WR

Targets
9.8 mean · 10.0 median · 5.0–14.0 80%
Receptions
7.1 mean · 7.0 median · 3.0–11.0 80%
Receiving yards
82 mean · 86 median · 41–120 80%
Receiving TD
41% 1+
High

Isaac TeSlaa · DET · WR

Targets
4.2 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
37 mean · 28 median · 0–74 80%
Receiving TD
21% 1+
Medium

Jameson Williams · DET · WR

Targets
6.3 mean · 6.0 median · 3.0–10.0 80%
Receptions
3.9 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
62 mean · 65 median · 19–112 80%
Receiving TD
34% 1+
High

Hunter Henry · NE · TE

Targets
5.0 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
4.4 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
50 mean · 45 median · 24–76 80%
Receiving TD
26% 1+
High

Eli Raridon · NE · TE

Targets
4.2 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
2.8 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
37 mean · 39 median · 14–65 80%
Receiving TD
21% 1+
Medium

Romeo Doubs · NE · WR

Targets
3.6 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
2.7 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
46 mean · 43 median · 12–89 80%
Receiving TD
29% 1+
High

DeMario Douglas · NE · WR

Targets
5.4 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.6 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
48 mean · 41 median · 14–82 80%
Receiving TD
27% 1+
High

Mack Hollins · NE · WR

Targets
5.7 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.7 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
47 mean · 39 median · 13–89 80%
Receiving TD
19% 1+
High

12 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Other PardonMe models (comparison)

The PA-1 simulation above is the forecast of record. These earlier models are kept for comparison and are not combined with it.

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

NE 21.5 — DET 23.7

DET · 52.4% win probability

Margin
DET 2.2
Total
45.2

As of Nov 10, 2026 11:36 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

NEWeek 10 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Drake Maye · Full

QB official #2 — Tommy DeVito · Availability unknown

QB official #3 — Behren Morton · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Rhamondre Stevenson · Questionable

RB official #2 — TreVeyon Henderson · Out

RB official #3 — Corey Kiner · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Hunter Henry · Limited

TE official #2 — Eli Raridon · Limited

TE official #3 — Cameron Latu · Questionable

WR official #1 — DeMario Douglas · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Kyle Williams · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — A.J. Brown · Questionable

WR official #2 — Efton Chism III · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Efton Chism III · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Kyle Williams · Availability unknown

DETWeek 10 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Jared Goff · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Joshua Dobbs · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Jahmyr Gibbs · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Sione Vaki · Questionable

RB official #3 — Jacob Saylors · Full

TE official #1 — Sam LaPorta · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Brock Wright · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — Tyler Conklin · Reserve status: Active Pup

TE official #4 — Jackson Meeks · Practice squad

WR official #1 — Amon-Ra St. Brown · Questionable

WR official #2 — DeAndre Carter · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Jameson Williams · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Isaac TeSlaa · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Tay Martin · Availability unknown

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonNEDET
Projected points22.326.1
Win probability (regulation)36.3%59.0%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status74 updates24 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 156 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 45 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

DET recent scoring form vs NE prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 19.3; opponent allowed 31.3.

NE recent scoring form vs DET prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 25.0; opponent allowed 13.7.