EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

KC at ATL

Sunday, November 15 · 12:00 PM CST

KC 24.5 — ATL 20.0

KC edge · KC 61.2%

Projected total 44.5 · Confidence: projected qb · limited input

PardonMe projects KC edge.

PA-1 game simulations

The early projection is retained. No updated pregame simulation is available.

EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

Nov 10, 1:23:33 AM CST · 4,000 D4 simulations · regulation only

Projected scoreKC 24.5 — ATL 20.0
Expected total44.5
Regulation win probabilitiesKC 61.2% · ATL 34.8%Tie 4.1%

Quarterbacks modeled

ATL Michael Penix Jr. (canonical ID 118) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.6075
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 10, 1:23:33 AM CST.

KC Patrick Mahomes (canonical ID 1389) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.8170
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 10, 1:23:33 AM CST.

Evidence and limitations

pa1-live-2026-v1.2 · code b668552219d54ed8f55b67869a53876e7f138d55 · model 7a80460eec2884d4d9a7c1b040983a14dcb298f6c5793670d58c81d0e498088e · record 9852afcac1e008bd3564d6b43a3060d28c90b6888f8d21c93bc799ec45c783fe

Evidence cutoff: Nov 10, 1:23:33 AM CST. Unknown availability stays unknown; a projected lineup is not a confirmed healthy lineup.

  • ATL: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • KC: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • ATL: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • KC: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • Projected from the quarterback who led the previous completed game; no newer official depth chart or announcement contradicts it.
  • Current official injury report completeness unproven; absence is not a healthy designation.
  • Projected from official depth order and known eligibility; no confirmed starter announcement required.
  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.
Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models — separate from the PA-1 game simulation. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Individual QB stat lines appear only when a starter is confirmed. The PA-1 game simulation above uses the quarterbacks it lists (projected or confirmed), so this section can differ from it.

Running back ranges

Bijan Robinson · ATL

Opportunities
19.8 mean · 20.0 median · 9.0–29.0 80%
Carries
15.6 mean · 16.0 median · 7.0–23.0 80%
Targets
4.1 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Rushing yards
67 mean · 66 median · 22–110 80%
Receptions
2.8 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
21 mean · 19 median · 0–42 80%
Total TD
41% 1+
High

Emmett Johnson · KC

Opportunities
8.2 mean · 5.0 median · 4.0–18.0 80%
Carries
6.0 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–13.0 80%
Targets
2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Rushing yards
36 mean · 26 median · 14–70 80%
Receptions
1.9 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
17 mean · 13 median · 0–38 80%
Total TD
28% 1+
Medium

Jaydn Ott · KC

Opportunities
4.8 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–13.0 80%
Carries
3.8 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–11.0 80%
Targets
0.9 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Rushing yards
22 mean · 18 median · 0–56 80%
Receptions
0.8 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
7 mean · 0 median · 0–22 80%
Total TD
17% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Receiver and tight end ranges

Kyle Pitts Sr. · ATL · TE

Targets
4.8 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.3 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
31 mean · 29 median · 11–56 80%
Receiving TD
24% 1+
High

Charlie Woerner · ATL · TE

Targets
2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
Receptions
1.6 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
14 mean · 15 median · 0–24 80%
Receiving TD
13% 1+
Medium

Jahan Dotson · ATL · WR

Targets
5.2 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
2.6 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
44 mean · 33 median · 17–83 80%
Receiving TD
21% 1+
High

Drake London · ATL · WR

Targets
8.2 mean · 8.0 median · 4.0–12.0 80%
Receptions
5.0 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receiving yards
75 mean · 78 median · 33–123 80%
Receiving TD
26% 1+
High

Olamide Zaccheaus · ATL · WR

Targets
2.7 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receptions
1.4 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
13 mean · 8 median · 0–27 80%
Receiving TD
12% 1+
High

Noah Gray · KC · TE

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

Travis Kelce · KC · TE

Targets
5.8 mean · 6.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
4.1 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
50 mean · 51 median · 16–87 80%
Receiving TD
24% 1+
High

Andrew Armstrong · KC · WR

Targets
2.8 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
1.7 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
22 mean · 21 median · 0–56 80%
Receiving TD
13% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Rashee Rice · KC · WR

Targets
7.6 mean · 8.0 median · 2.0–12.0 80%
Receptions
5.7 mean · 6.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receiving yards
67 mean · 74 median · 27–109 80%
Receiving TD
32% 1+
High

Xavier Worthy · KC · WR

Targets
6.1 mean · 7.0 median · 3.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
4.0 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
44 mean · 45 median · 22–66 80%
Receiving TD
21% 1+
High

12 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Other PardonMe models (comparison)

The PA-1 simulation above is the forecast of record. These earlier models are kept for comparison and are not combined with it.

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

KC 21.2 — ATL 21.3

ATL · 46.3% win probability

Margin
ATL 0.2
Total
42.5

As of Nov 10, 2026 11:36 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

KCWeek 10 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Official depth is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Patrick Mahomes · Full

QB official #2 — Justin Fields · Full

QB official #3 — Garrett Nussmeier · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Emmett Johnson · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — Jaydn Ott · Questionable

TE official #1 — Travis Kelce · Full

TE official #2 — Noah Gray · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — Jared Wiley · Availability unknown

TE official #4 — Jake Briningstool · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Rashee Rice · Full

WR official #2 — Jalen Royals · Availability unknown

WR official #3 — Andrew Armstrong · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Xavier Worthy · Full

WR official #2 — Cyrus Allen · Full

ATLWeek 10 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Michael Penix Jr. · Full

QB official #2 — Tua Tagovailoa · Inactive for Week 2

QB official #3 — Andy Dalton · Inactive for Week 7

QB official #4 — Jack Strand · Inactive for Week 9

RB official #1 — Bijan Robinson · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Khalil Herbert · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Kyle Pitts Sr. · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Austin Hooper · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Charlie Woerner · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Nick Muse · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Olamide Zaccheaus · Questionable

WR official #2 — Zachariah Branch · Out

WR official #1 — Jahan Dotson · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Player 2104 · Questionable

WR official #1 — Drake London · Limited

WR official #2 — Chris Blair · Practice squad

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonKCATL
Projected points24.520.0
Win probability (regulation)61.2%34.8%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status38 updates43 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 150 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 50 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

ATL recent scoring form vs KC prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 15.3; opponent allowed 20.0.

KC recent scoring form vs ATL prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 20.7; opponent allowed 23.3.