UPDATED PREGAME SIMULATION

HOU at CLE

Sunday, November 15 · 12:00 PM CST

HOU 23.0 — CLE 16.5

HOU edge · HOU 67.3%

Projected total 39.6 · Confidence: projected qb · limited input

PardonMe projects HOU edge.

PA-1 game simulations

UPDATED PREGAME SIMULATION

Nov 11, 9:42:40 AM CST · 4,000 D4 simulations · regulation only

Projected scoreHOU 23.0 — CLE 16.5
Expected total39.6
Regulation win probabilitiesHOU 67.3% · CLE 28.3%Tie 4.4%

Quarterbacks modeled

CLE Deshaun Watson (canonical ID 680) · CONFIRMED · D4 capability 0.1909
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 11, 9:42:39 AM CST.

HOU C.J. Stroud (canonical ID 1137) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.4310
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 11, 9:42:39 AM CST.

Alternative QB scenarios

Each available alternative uses another 4,000 draws with the other team's primary QB held fixed. These are conditional outcomes; no probability of starting is assigned.

Shedeur Sanders (ID 675): capability 0.3264 · HOU 23.0 — CLE 16.6 · total 39.6 (change +0.1) · CLE win 28.6% (change +0.3 percentage points).

Evidence and limitations

pa1-live-2026-v1.2 · code b668552219d54ed8f55b67869a53876e7f138d55 · model 7a80460eec2884d4d9a7c1b040983a14dcb298f6c5793670d58c81d0e498088e · record f5224e525f030cd43a18952d8de15fc115e50ed60b63f5444a1d56d7c7b4c35c

Evidence cutoff: Nov 11, 9:42:39 AM CST. Unknown availability stays unknown; a projected lineup is not a confirmed healthy lineup.

  • CLE: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • HOU: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • HOU: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • Projected from the quarterback who led the previous completed game; no newer official depth chart or announcement contradicts it.
  • Current official injury report completeness unproven; absence is not a healthy designation.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-11-08 16:54:58.
  • Projected from official depth order and known eligibility; no confirmed starter announcement required.
  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.

EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

Nov 10, 1:24:00 AM CST · 4,000 D4 simulations · regulation only

Projected scoreHOU 23.0 — CLE 16.6
Expected total39.6
Regulation win probabilitiesHOU 67.0% · CLE 28.6%Tie 4.5%

Quarterbacks modeled

CLE Shedeur Sanders (canonical ID 675) · CONFIRMED · D4 capability 0.3264
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 10, 1:24:00 AM CST.

HOU C.J. Stroud (canonical ID 1137) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.4310
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 10, 1:24:00 AM CST.

Evidence and limitations

pa1-live-2026-v1.2 · code b668552219d54ed8f55b67869a53876e7f138d55 · model 7a80460eec2884d4d9a7c1b040983a14dcb298f6c5793670d58c81d0e498088e · record 6d72fdcd8c5d020973b03fd0c5aa951cd27ba589208486360e9b0ac70541b9af

Evidence cutoff: Nov 10, 1:24:00 AM CST. Unknown availability stays unknown; a projected lineup is not a confirmed healthy lineup.

  • CLE: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • HOU: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • HOU: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • Projected from the quarterback who led the previous completed game; no newer official depth chart or announcement contradicts it.
  • Current official injury report completeness unproven; absence is not a healthy designation.
  • Projected from official depth order and known eligibility; no confirmed starter announcement required.
  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.

Change from early to updated: total -0.1 points; home win probability -0.3 percentage points. Both original records remain available above.

Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models — separate from the PA-1 game simulation. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Individual QB stat lines appear only when a starter is confirmed. The PA-1 game simulation above uses the quarterbacks it lists (projected or confirmed), so this section can differ from it.

Running back ranges

Quinshon Judkins · CLE

Opportunities
14.8 mean · 15.0 median · 10.0–22.0 80%
Carries
12.5 mean · 12.0 median · 7.0–19.0 80%
Targets
2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Rushing yards
43 mean · 40 median · 23–65 80%
Receptions
2.0 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
17 mean · 15 median · 0–35 80%
Total TD
33% 1+
Medium

Raheim Sanders · CLE

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Insufficient Evidence

Woody Marks · HOU

Opportunities
14.4 mean · 14.0 median · 6.0–22.0 80%
Carries
12.1 mean · 12.0 median · 5.0–19.0 80%
Targets
2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Rushing yards
43 mean · 40 median · 14–73 80%
Receptions
1.7 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
11 mean · 8 median · 0–27 80%
Total TD
30% 1+
Medium

David Montgomery · HOU

Opportunities
8.9 mean · 7.0 median · 4.0–20.0 80%
Carries
7.6 mean · 6.0 median · 3.0–16.0 80%
Targets
1.3 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Rushing yards
37 mean · 31 median · 18–68 80%
Receptions
1.1 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
10 mean · 8 median · 0–27 80%
Total TD
31% 1+
High

Receiver and tight end ranges

Harold Fannin Jr. · CLE · TE

Targets
6.2 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–12.0 80%
Receptions
4.1 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
Receiving yards
46 mean · 35 median · 13–91 80%
Receiving TD
28% 1+
Medium

Blake Whiteheart · CLE · TE

Targets
1.8 mean · 1.0 median · 1.0–3.0 80%
Receptions
1.1 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
Receiving yards
11 mean · 8 median · 0–18 80%
Receiving TD
12% 1+
Medium

Denzel Boston · CLE · WR

Targets
6.7 mean · 7.0 median · 4.0–11.0 80%
Receptions
3.8 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
57 mean · 49 median · 18–94 80%
Receiving TD
29% 1+
Medium

Jerry Jeudy · CLE · WR

Targets
4.2 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
27 mean · 21 median · 0–54 80%
Receiving TD
12% 1+
High

Tylan Wallace · CLE · WR

Targets
1.6 mean · 1.0 median · 1.0–2.0 80%
Receptions
1.2 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
Receiving yards
16 mean · 10 median · 0–30 80%
Receiving TD
11% 1+
Medium

Foster Moreau · HOU · TE

Targets
3.0 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receptions
2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
24 mean · 25 median · 8–44 80%
Receiving TD
20% 1+
High

Dalton Schultz · HOU · TE

Targets
4.1 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
3.4 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
37 mean · 32 median · 11–73 80%
Receiving TD
19% 1+
High

Nico Collins · HOU · WR

Targets
6.3 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–10.0 80%
Receptions
4.0 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
65 mean · 66 median · 16–115 80%
Receiving TD
30% 1+
High

Xavier Hutchinson · HOU · WR

Targets
5.4 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
2.9 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
36 mean · 37 median · 12–63 80%
Receiving TD
19% 1+
High

Jared Wayne · HOU · WR

Targets
2.9 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
1.8 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
24 mean · 22 median · 0–62 80%
Receiving TD
14% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

13 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Other PardonMe models (comparison)

The PA-1 simulation above is the forecast of record. These earlier models are kept for comparison and are not combined with it.

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

HOU 24.4 — CLE 21.7

HOU · 62.2% win probability

Margin
HOU 2.8
Total
46.1

As of Nov 10, 2026 11:36 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

HOUWeek 10 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Official depth needs a current update.

RB: Official depth needs a current update.

TE: Official depth needs a current update.

WR: Official depth needs a current update.

WR: Official depth needs a current update.

WR: Official depth needs a current update.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — C.J. Stroud · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Davis Mills · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — David Montgomery · Questionable

RB official #2 — Woody Marks · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — Player 3289 · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Dalton Schultz · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Foster Moreau · Current status: Transaction Effective

TE official #3 — Marlin Klein · Availability unknown

TE official #4 — Cade Stover · Availability unknown

TE official #5 — Brevin Jordan · Out

WR official #1 — Nico Collins · Limited

WR official #2 — Player 20 · Out

WR official #1 — Xavier Hutchinson · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Kayshon Boutte · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Jaylin Noel · Reserve status: Active Nfi

CLEWeek 10 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Official depth is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Deshaun Watson · Questionable

RB official #1 — Quinshon Judkins · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Dylan Sampson · Availability unknown

RB official #4 — Jaleel McLaughlin · Current status: Transaction Effective

TE official #1 — Harold Fannin Jr. · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Blake Whiteheart · Current status: Transaction Effective

WR official #1 — Jerry Jeudy · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Tylan Wallace · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Denzel Boston · Questionable

WR official #2 — Malachi Corley · Current status: Transaction Effective

WR official #2 — Isaiah Bond · Availability unknown

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonHOUCLE
Projected points23.016.5
Win probability (regulation)67.3%28.3%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status49 updates73 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 110 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 36 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

CLE recent scoring form vs HOU prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 18.3; opponent allowed 26.7.

HOU recent scoring form vs CLE prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 33.0; opponent allowed 24.7.