EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

MIN at GB

Sunday, November 15 · 12:00 PM CST

MIN 17.6 — GB 20.1

GB slight edge · GB 55.0%

Projected total 37.7 · Confidence: projected qb · limited input

PardonMe projects GB slight edge.

PA-1 game simulations

The early projection is retained. No updated pregame simulation is available.

EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

Nov 10, 1:24:28 AM CST · 4,000 D4 simulations · regulation only

Projected scoreMIN 17.6 — GB 20.1
Expected total37.7
Regulation win probabilitiesMIN 39.6% · GB 55.0%Tie 5.4%

Quarterbacks modeled

GB Jordan Love (canonical ID 1025) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.7904
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 10, 1:24:28 AM CST.

MIN Carson Wentz (canonical ID 1863) · CONFIRMED · D4 capability -0.3678
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 10, 1:24:28 AM CST.

Alternative QB scenarios

Each available alternative uses another 4,000 draws with the other team's primary QB held fixed. These are conditional outcomes; no probability of starting is assigned.

Kyler Murray (ID 1850): capability -0.1158 · MIN 17.8 — GB 20.1 · total 37.9 (change +0.2) · GB win 53.8% (change -1.3 percentage points).

Evidence and limitations

pa1-live-2026-v1.2 · code b668552219d54ed8f55b67869a53876e7f138d55 · model 7a80460eec2884d4d9a7c1b040983a14dcb298f6c5793670d58c81d0e498088e · record b28bd1e12186ef0e4dfc54056b1d0613c88dfd96e76c5c77be34b2390fa61b29

Evidence cutoff: Nov 10, 1:24:28 AM CST. Unknown availability stays unknown; a projected lineup is not a confirmed healthy lineup.

  • GB: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • MIN: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • GB: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • Projected from the quarterback who led the previous completed game; no newer official depth chart or announcement contradicts it.
  • Current official injury report completeness unproven; absence is not a healthy designation.
  • Projected from official depth order and known eligibility; no confirmed starter announcement required.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-11-10 00:09:58.
  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.
Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models — separate from the PA-1 game simulation. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Individual QB stat lines appear only when a starter is confirmed. The PA-1 game simulation above uses the quarterbacks it lists (projected or confirmed), so this section can differ from it.

Running back ranges

Josh Jacobs · GB

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

MarShawn Lloyd · GB

Opportunities
7.9 mean · 6.0 median · 3.0–14.0 80%
Carries
6.1 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–11.0 80%
Targets
1.8 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Rushing yards
28 mean · 24 median · 13–49 80%
Receptions
1.4 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
11 mean · 7 median · 0–25 80%
Total TD
28% 1+
Medium

Demond Claiborne · MIN

Opportunities
6.1 mean · 5.0 median · 0.0–15.0 80%
Carries
4.8 mean · 4.0 median · 0.0–12.0 80%
Targets
1.2 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Rushing yards
27 mean · 24 median · 0–62 80%
Receptions
1.1 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
9 mean · 0 median · 0–25 80%
Total TD
21% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Aaron Jones Sr. · MIN

Opportunities
14.0 mean · 13.0 median · 4.0–25.0 80%
Carries
11.9 mean · 11.0 median · 3.0–20.0 80%
Targets
2.2 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Rushing yards
51 mean · 48 median · 15–87 80%
Receptions
1.7 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
12 mean · 11 median · 0–29 80%
Total TD
32% 1+
High

Receiver and tight end ranges

Tucker Kraft · GB · TE

Targets
6.3 mean · 6.0 median · 3.0–10.0 80%
Receptions
4.0 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
45 mean · 45 median · 12–79 80%
Receiving TD
29% 1+
High

Jonnu Smith · GB · TE

Targets
2.9 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receptions
2.1 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
19 mean · 16 median · 7–35 80%
Receiving TD
15% 1+
High

Matthew Golden · GB · WR

Targets
7.8 mean · 7.0 median · 2.0–13.0 80%
Receptions
4.7 mean · 5.0 median · 1.0–9.0 80%
Receiving yards
67 mean · 61 median · 17–118 80%
Receiving TD
34% 1+
Medium

J. Michael Sturdivant · GB · WR

Targets
2.2 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
1.4 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
17 mean · 7 median · 0–54 80%
Receiving TD
11% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Christian Watson · GB · WR

Targets
8.4 mean · 9.0 median · 4.0–12.0 80%
Receptions
5.4 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receiving yards
91 mean · 86 median · 36–137 80%
Receiving TD
45% 1+
High

T.J. Hockenson · MIN · TE

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

Josh Oliver · MIN · TE

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

Jordan Addison · MIN · WR

Targets
5.9 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–10.0 80%
Receptions
3.0 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
46 mean · 46 median · 15–92 80%
Receiving TD
20% 1+
High

Justin Jefferson · MIN · WR

Targets
8.3 mean · 9.0 median · 4.0–12.0 80%
Receptions
5.3 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receiving yards
64 mean · 66 median · 29–103 80%
Receiving TD
33% 1+
High

Jauan Jennings · MIN · WR

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

10 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Other PardonMe models (comparison)

The PA-1 simulation above is the forecast of record. These earlier models are kept for comparison and are not combined with it.

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

MIN 17.9 — GB 25.6

GB · 67.9% win probability

Margin
GB 7.7
Total
43.5

As of Nov 10, 2026 11:36 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

MINWeek 10 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Expected lineup needs a current update.

RB: Expected lineup needs a current update.

TE: Expected lineup needs a current update.

WR: Expected lineup needs a current update.

WR: Expected lineup needs a current update.

WR: Expected lineup needs a current update.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Carson Wentz · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Aaron Jones Sr. · Limited

RB official #1 — Jordan Mason · Questionable

RB official #2 — Demond Claiborne · Out

RB official #3 — DeeJay Dallas · Current status: Transaction Effective

TE official #1 — T.J. Hockenson · Out

TE official #2 — Gavin Bartholomew · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Justin Jefferson · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Tai Felton · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Jordan Addison · Questionable

WR official #1 — Jauan Jennings · Out

WR official #2 — Myles Price · Availability unknown

GBWeek 10 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Backup availability is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Jordan Love · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Tyrod Taylor · Current status: Transaction Effective

RB official #1 — Josh Jacobs · Out

RB official #2 — MarShawn Lloyd · Questionable

RB official #3 — Pierre Strong Jr. · Practice squad

TE official #1 — Tucker Kraft · Current status: Returned To Practice

TE official #2 — Jonnu Smith · Current status: Transaction Effective

TE official #3 — Mark Redman · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Matthew Golden · Questionable

WR official #2 — J. Michael Sturdivant · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Savion Williams · Limited

WR official #2 — Coleman Owen · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Christian Watson · Limited

WR official #2 — Bo Melton · Full

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonMINGB
Projected points17.620.1
Win probability (regulation)39.6%55.0%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status66 updates54 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 136 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 25 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

GB recent scoring form vs MIN prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 29.7; opponent allowed 17.3.

MIN recent scoring form vs GB prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 12.3; opponent allowed 22.0.