EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

JAX at TEN

Sunday, November 15 · 12:00 PM CST

JAX 26.7 — TEN 15.6

JAX clear edge · JAX 80.1%

Projected total 42.3 · Confidence: projected qb · limited input

PardonMe projects JAX clear edge.

PA-1 game simulations

The early projection is retained. No updated pregame simulation is available.

EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

Nov 10, 1:25:13 AM CST · 4,000 D4 simulations · regulation only

Projected scoreJAX 26.7 — TEN 15.6
Expected total42.3
Regulation win probabilitiesJAX 80.1% · TEN 17.2%Tie 2.7%

Quarterbacks modeled

JAX Trevor Lawrence (canonical ID 1298) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.1520
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 10, 1:25:13 AM CST.

TEN Cam Ward (canonical ID 2787) · PROJECTED · D4 capability -0.2174
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 10, 1:25:13 AM CST.

Evidence and limitations

pa1-live-2026-v1.2 · code b668552219d54ed8f55b67869a53876e7f138d55 · model 7a80460eec2884d4d9a7c1b040983a14dcb298f6c5793670d58c81d0e498088e · record be536b90fb81629dc4bd8996a46136f701159ce770985079d8f2ec3ffcc50723

Evidence cutoff: Nov 10, 1:25:13 AM CST. Unknown availability stays unknown; a projected lineup is not a confirmed healthy lineup.

  • JAX: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • TEN: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • JAX: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • TEN: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • Projected from the quarterback who led the previous completed game; no newer official depth chart or announcement contradicts it.
  • Current official injury report completeness unproven; absence is not a healthy designation.
  • Projected from official depth order and known eligibility; no confirmed starter announcement required.
  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.
Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models — separate from the PA-1 game simulation. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Individual QB stat lines appear only when a starter is confirmed. The PA-1 game simulation above uses the quarterbacks it lists (projected or confirmed), so this section can differ from it.

Running back ranges

Ameer Abdullah · JAX

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

Chris Rodriguez Jr. · JAX

Opportunities
9.4 mean · 9.0 median · 4.0–15.0 80%
Carries
8.5 mean · 8.0 median · 3.0–14.0 80%
Targets
0.9 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
Rushing yards
37 mean · 34 median · 14–66 80%
Receptions
0.7 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
Receiving yards
6 mean · 0 median · 0–15 80%
Total TD
29% 1+
Medium

Tony Pollard · TEN

Opportunities
20.7 mean · 22.0 median · 12.0–29.0 80%
Carries
18.0 mean · 18.0 median · 10.0–25.0 80%
Targets
2.6 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Rushing yards
70 mean · 69 median · 34–104 80%
Receptions
1.9 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
12 mean · 11 median · 0–27 80%
Total TD
43% 1+
High

Tyjae Spears · TEN

Opportunities
5.3 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–12.0 80%
Carries
2.4 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–7.0 80%
Targets
2.9 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Rushing yards
16 mean · 13 median · 0–37 80%
Receptions
2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
17 mean · 13 median · 0–35 80%
Total TD
18% 1+
High

Receiver and tight end ranges

Nate Boerkircher · JAX · TE

Targets
2.1 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–3.0 80%
Receptions
1.5 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
20 mean · 13 median · 0–39 80%
Receiving TD
12% 1+
Medium

Brenton Strange · JAX · TE

Targets
5.0 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
3.6 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
41 mean · 35 median · 12–70 80%
Receiving TD
23% 1+
High

Jakobi Meyers · JAX · WR

Targets
5.5 mean · 6.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.8 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
48 mean · 39 median · 14–89 80%
Receiving TD
21% 1+
High

Brian Thomas Jr. · JAX · WR

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

CJ Williams · JAX · WR

Targets
4.7 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.0 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
38 mean · 25 median · 13–76 80%
Receiving TD
20% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Daniel Bellinger · TEN · TE

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

Gunnar Helm · TEN · TE

Targets
2.6 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
1.9 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
16 mean · 10 median · 0–43 80%
Receiving TD
12% 1+
Medium

Calvin Ridley · TEN · WR

Targets
3.3 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
1.7 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
30 mean · 16 median · 0–83 80%
Receiving TD
11% 1+
High

Wan'Dale Robinson · TEN · WR

Targets
7.4 mean · 7.0 median · 2.0–12.0 80%
Receptions
4.9 mean · 5.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
Receiving yards
43 mean · 45 median · 12–72 80%
Receiving TD
28% 1+
High

Carnell Tate · TEN · WR

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium

9 individualized projections · 1 baseline projection. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Other PardonMe models (comparison)

The PA-1 simulation above is the forecast of record. These earlier models are kept for comparison and are not combined with it.

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

JAX 25.7 — TEN 22.9

JAX · 62.3% win probability

Margin
JAX 2.8
Total
48.5

As of Nov 10, 2026 11:36 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

JAXWeek 10 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Official depth order is ambiguous.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Trevor Lawrence · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Quinn Ewers · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Bhayshul Tuten · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Chris Rodriguez Jr. · Limited

RB official #2 — LeQuint Allen Jr. · Limited

RB official #3 — Ameer Abdullah · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Brenton Strange · Full

TE official #2 — Nate Boerkircher · Limited

TE official #3 — Quintin Morris · Availability unknown

TE official #4 — Tanner Koziol · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Jakobi Meyers · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — CJ Williams · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Brian Thomas Jr. · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Travis Hunter · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Parker Washington · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Josh Cameron · Availability unknown

TENWeek 10 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Backup availability is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Cam Ward · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Mitchell Trubisky · Current status: Transaction Effective

RB official #1 — Tony Pollard · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Tyjae Spears · Questionable

RB official #3 — Michael Carter · Current status: Transaction Effective

RB official #3 — Julius Chestnut · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Gunnar Helm · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Daniel Bellinger · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — Kylen Granson · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — David Martin-Robinson · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Calvin Ridley · Questionable

WR official #2 — Chimere Dike · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Carnell Tate · Out

WR official #2 — Elic Ayomanor · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Wan'Dale Robinson · Current status: Transaction Effective

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonJAXTEN
Projected points26.715.6
Win probability (regulation)80.1%17.2%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status23 updates43 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 150 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 51 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

TEN recent scoring form vs JAX prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 28.7; opponent allowed 17.0.

JAX recent scoring form vs TEN prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 35.3; opponent allowed 30.0.