UPDATED PREGAME SIMULATION

MIA at IND

Sunday, November 15 · 12:00 PM CST

MIA 20.0 — IND 24.2

IND edge · IND 60.4%

Projected total 44.3 · Confidence: projected qb · limited input

PardonMe projects IND edge.

PA-1 game simulations

UPDATED PREGAME SIMULATION

Nov 11, 5:22:32 PM CST · 4,000 D4 simulations · regulation only

Projected scoreMIA 20.0 — IND 24.2
Expected total44.3
Regulation win probabilitiesMIA 35.6% · IND 60.4%Tie 4.0%

Quarterbacks modeled

IND Daniel Jones (canonical ID 1201) · PROJECTED · D4 capability -0.4883
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 11, 5:22:32 PM CST.

MIA Kyle McCord (canonical ID 1028) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.0000
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 11, 5:22:32 PM CST.

Alternative QB scenarios

Each available alternative uses another 4,000 draws with the other team's primary QB held fixed. These are conditional outcomes; no probability of starting is assigned.

Malik Willis (ID 1770): capability 0.2134 · MIA 20.2 — IND 24.3 · total 44.5 (change +0.2) · IND win 60.0% (change -0.4 percentage points).

Evidence and limitations

pa1-live-2026-v1.2 · code b668552219d54ed8f55b67869a53876e7f138d55 · model 7a80460eec2884d4d9a7c1b040983a14dcb298f6c5793670d58c81d0e498088e · record 957abae7daf07da525f8deabfbd3dc2b9ad7614c6b4b61a7034b489e2d8776ca

Evidence cutoff: Nov 11, 5:22:32 PM CST. Unknown availability stays unknown; a projected lineup is not a confirmed healthy lineup.

  • IND: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • MIA: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • IND: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • MIA: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • Current official injury report completeness unproven; absence is not a healthy designation.
  • Projected from official depth order and known eligibility; no confirmed starter announcement required.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-11-11 23:06:09.
  • Newer official depth chart names a different quarterback than the previous game; the chart is used and the previous starter is run as a separate scenario.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-11-11 23:06:10.
  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.

EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

Nov 10, 1:25:41 AM CST · 4,000 D4 simulations · regulation only

Projected scoreMIA 20.2 — IND 24.3
Expected total44.5
Regulation win probabilitiesMIA 35.9% · IND 60.0%Tie 4.1%

Quarterbacks modeled

IND Daniel Jones (canonical ID 1201) · PROJECTED · D4 capability -0.4884
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 10, 1:25:41 AM CST.

MIA Malik Willis (canonical ID 1770) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.2133
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 10, 1:25:41 AM CST.

Evidence and limitations

pa1-live-2026-v1.2 · code b668552219d54ed8f55b67869a53876e7f138d55 · model 7a80460eec2884d4d9a7c1b040983a14dcb298f6c5793670d58c81d0e498088e · record 768fa72983503c12ad7dcfd1fdfb4102ef9802313164bb6889ea3aaa0f1eeb0e

Evidence cutoff: Nov 10, 1:25:41 AM CST. Unknown availability stays unknown; a projected lineup is not a confirmed healthy lineup.

  • IND: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • MIA: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • IND: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • MIA: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • Projected from the quarterback who led the previous completed game; no newer official depth chart or announcement contradicts it.
  • Current official injury report completeness unproven; absence is not a healthy designation.
  • Projected from official depth order and known eligibility; no confirmed starter announcement required.
  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.

Change from early to updated: total -0.2 points; home win probability +0.4 percentage points. Both original records remain available above.

Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models — separate from the PA-1 game simulation. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Individual QB stat lines appear only when a starter is confirmed. The PA-1 game simulation above uses the quarterbacks it lists (projected or confirmed), so this section can differ from it.

Running back ranges

DJ Giddens · IND

Opportunities
11.2 mean · 9.0 median · 6.0–20.0 80%
Carries
10.0 mean · 8.0 median · 5.0–18.0 80%
Targets
1.2 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Rushing yards
50 mean · 43 median · 26–86 80%
Receptions
1.0 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
9 mean · 7 median · 0–22 80%
Total TD
32% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Jonathan Taylor · IND

Opportunities
18.8 mean · 19.0 median · 11.0–26.0 80%
Carries
15.2 mean · 16.0 median · 8.0–22.0 80%
Targets
3.6 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Rushing yards
57 mean · 57 median · 28–85 80%
Receptions
2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
19 mean · 16 median · 0–38 80%
Total TD
44% 1+
High

De'Von Achane · MIA

Opportunities
11.4 mean · 11.0 median · 1.0–18.0 80%
Carries
8.9 mean · 9.0 median · 0.0–15.0 80%
Targets
2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Rushing yards
56 mean · 57 median · 0–94 80%
Receptions
2.2 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
18 mean · 16 median · 0–38 80%
Total TD
33% 1+
High

Ollie Gordon II · MIA

Opportunities
19.8 mean · 17.0 median · 13.0–28.0 80%
Carries
17.6 mean · 16.0 median · 11.0–25.0 80%
Targets
2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Rushing yards
66 mean · 58 median · 34–105 80%
Receptions
1.6 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
11 mean · 8 median · 0–23 80%
Total TD
45% 1+
Medium

Receiver and tight end ranges

Mo Alie-Cox · IND · TE

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

Tyler Warren · IND · TE

Targets
7.1 mean · 7.0 median · 5.0–10.0 80%
Receptions
4.6 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
37 mean · 35 median · 18–58 80%
Receiving TD
26% 1+
Medium

Josh Downs · IND · WR

Targets
6.2 mean · 5.0 median · 4.0–10.0 80%
Receptions
3.8 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
45 mean · 38 median · 14–73 80%
Receiving TD
18% 1+
High

Alec Pierce · IND · WR

Targets
4.4 mean · 4.0 median · 0.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
2.9 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
58 mean · 58 median · 0–116 80%
Receiving TD
30% 1+
High

Keenan Allen · IND · WR

Targets
6.6 mean · 6.0 median · 3.0–11.0 80%
Receptions
4.7 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receiving yards
44 mean · 39 median · 20–75 80%
Receiving TD
21% 1+
High

Greg Dulcich · MIA · TE

Targets
5.1 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
4.2 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
51 mean · 51 median · 27–74 80%
Receiving TD
21% 1+
Medium

Will Kacmarek · MIA · TE

Targets
1.6 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receptions
0.9 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
Receiving yards
9 mean · 8 median · 0–18 80%
Receiving TD
9% 1+
Medium

Chris Bell · MIA · WR

Targets
4.4 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
31 mean · 25 median · 12–62 80%
Receiving TD
16% 1+
Medium

Caleb Douglas · MIA · WR

Targets
5.2 mean · 6.0 median · 3.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
3.7 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
54 mean · 48 median · 18–91 80%
Receiving TD
26% 1+
Medium

Jalen Tolbert · MIA · WR

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

12 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Other PardonMe models (comparison)

The PA-1 simulation above is the forecast of record. These earlier models are kept for comparison and are not combined with it.

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

MIA 20.5 — IND 20.7

IND · 46.3% win probability

Margin
IND 0.2
Total
41.3

As of Nov 10, 2026 11:36 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

MIAWeek 10 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Kyle McCord · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Ollie Gordon II · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Jaylen Wright · Full

RB official #3 — Player 2836 · Full

TE official #1 — Greg Dulcich · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Will Kacmarek · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — Seydou Traore · Full

TE official #4 — Justin Joly · Out

WR official #1 — Malik Washington · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Kevin Coleman Jr. · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Chris Bell · Doubtful

WR official #2 — Jalen Tolbert · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Caleb Douglas · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Player 1140 · Out

INDWeek 10 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Daniel Jones · Full

QB official #2 — Anthony Richardson Sr. · Availability unknown

QB official #3 — Riley Leonard · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Jonathan Taylor · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Seth McGowan · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — DJ Giddens · Inactive for Week 2

TE official #1 — Tyler Warren · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Mo Alie-Cox · Out

TE official #3 — Drew Ogletree · Availability unknown

TE official #4 — Pharaoh Brown · Inactive for Week 8

TE official #4 — Player 1204 · Questionable

WR official #1 — Laquon Treadwell · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Nick Westbrook-Ikhine · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Anthony Gould · Full

WR official #1 — Ashton Dulin · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Deion Burks · Availability unknown

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonMIAIND
Projected points20.024.2
Win probability (regulation)35.6%60.4%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status35 updates30 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 129 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 49 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

MIA recent scoring form vs IND prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 18.7; opponent allowed 28.3.

IND recent scoring form vs MIA prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 13.3; opponent allowed 22.7.