EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

CAR at NO

Sunday, November 15 · 12:00 PM CST

CAR 22.0 — NO 23.8

NO slight edge · NO 53.4%

Projected total 45.8 · Confidence: projected qb · limited input

PardonMe projects NO slight edge.

PA-1 game simulations

The early projection is retained. No updated pregame simulation is available.

EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

Nov 10, 1:26:10 AM CST · 4,000 D4 simulations · regulation only

Projected scoreCAR 22.0 — NO 23.8
Expected total45.8
Regulation win probabilitiesCAR 41.9% · NO 53.4%Tie 4.7%

Quarterbacks modeled

CAR Bryce Young (canonical ID 410) · PROJECTED · D4 capability -0.6863
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 10, 1:26:10 AM CST.

NO Tyler Shough (canonical ID 2041) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.4041
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 10, 1:26:10 AM CST.

Evidence and limitations

pa1-live-2026-v1.2 · code b668552219d54ed8f55b67869a53876e7f138d55 · model 7a80460eec2884d4d9a7c1b040983a14dcb298f6c5793670d58c81d0e498088e · record 4a037d7242319b7e45f3dfe8e1356231bbbd3259b0cd27028c01418602e47fd3

Evidence cutoff: Nov 10, 1:26:10 AM CST. Unknown availability stays unknown; a projected lineup is not a confirmed healthy lineup.

  • CAR: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • NO: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • CAR: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • NO: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • Projected from the quarterback who led the previous completed game; no newer official depth chart or announcement contradicts it.
  • Current official injury report completeness unproven; absence is not a healthy designation.
  • Projected from official depth order and known eligibility; no confirmed starter announcement required.
  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.
Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models — separate from the PA-1 game simulation. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Individual QB stat lines appear only when a starter is confirmed. The PA-1 game simulation above uses the quarterbacks it lists (projected or confirmed), so this section can differ from it.

Running back ranges

Jonathon Brooks · CAR

Opportunities
8.8 mean · 7.0 median · 3.0–19.0 80%
Carries
6.8 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–15.0 80%
Targets
2.1 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Rushing yards
32 mean · 24 median · 12–63 80%
Receptions
1.7 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
15 mean · 9 median · 0–36 80%
Total TD
26% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Chuba Hubbard · CAR

Opportunities
22.6 mean · 20.0 median · 14.0–36.0 80%
Carries
18.2 mean · 17.0 median · 11.0–28.0 80%
Targets
4.4 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Rushing yards
68 mean · 61 median · 35–112 80%
Receptions
3.1 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
22 mean · 20 median · 6–42 80%
Total TD
46% 1+
High

Travis Etienne Jr. · NO

Opportunities
10.7 mean · 12.0 median · 4.0–15.0 80%
Carries
8.7 mean · 9.0 median · 3.0–13.0 80%
Targets
2.0 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Rushing yards
37 mean · 38 median · 14–59 80%
Receptions
1.6 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
13 mean · 9 median · 0–27 80%
Total TD
34% 1+
High

Alvin Kamara · NO

Opportunities
10.7 mean · 9.0 median · 4.0–20.0 80%
Carries
7.3 mean · 7.0 median · 2.0–14.0 80%
Targets
3.3 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Rushing yards
30 mean · 27 median · 11–54 80%
Receptions
2.6 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
17 mean · 14 median · 0–36 80%
Total TD
28% 1+
High

Receiver and tight end ranges

Mitchell Evans · CAR · TE

Targets
3.1 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–4.0 80%
Receptions
2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
24 mean · 19 median · 9–40 80%
Receiving TD
15% 1+
Medium

Tommy Tremble · CAR · TE

Targets
3.5 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
21 mean · 18 median · 8–36 80%
Receiving TD
18% 1+
High

Jalen Coker · CAR · WR

Targets
7.2 mean · 6.0 median · 4.0–11.0 80%
Receptions
4.6 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receiving yards
58 mean · 51 median · 25–102 80%
Receiving TD
35% 1+
Medium

Xavier Legette · CAR · WR

Targets
2.2 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
1.2 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
17 mean · 12 median · 0–40 80%
Receiving TD
10% 1+
High

Tetairoa McMillan · CAR · WR

Targets
8.7 mean · 8.0 median · 5.0–12.0 80%
Receptions
5.5 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receiving yards
75 mean · 71 median · 30–126 80%
Receiving TD
33% 1+
Medium

Noah Fant · NO · TE

Targets
2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
1.6 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
14 mean · 8 median · 0–41 80%
Receiving TD
14% 1+
High

Juwan Johnson · NO · TE

Targets
4.7 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
3.6 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
42 mean · 34 median · 11–81 80%
Receiving TD
24% 1+
High

Chris Olave · NO · WR

Targets
7.8 mean · 8.0 median · 3.0–12.0 80%
Receptions
5.3 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receiving yards
71 mean · 72 median · 18–124 80%
Receiving TD
34% 1+
High

Devaughn Vele · NO · WR

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium

12 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Other PardonMe models (comparison)

The PA-1 simulation above is the forecast of record. These earlier models are kept for comparison and are not combined with it.

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

CAR 19.4 — NO 24.4

NO · 60.6% win probability

Margin
NO 5.0
Total
43.8

As of Nov 10, 2026 11:36 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

CARWeek 10 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Bryce Young · Full

QB official #2 — Kenny Pickett · Availability unknown

QB official #3 — Haynes King · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Chuba Hubbard · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Trevor Etienne · Full

RB official #3 — AJ Dillon · Full

RB official #4 — Anthony Tyus III · Practice squad

TE official #1 — Tommy Tremble · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Mitchell Evans · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — Darren Waller · Availability unknown

TE official #4 — Ja'Tavion Sanders · Availability unknown

TE official #5 — Feleipe Franks · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Jalen Coker · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Tetairoa McMillan · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Brycen Tremayne · Current status: Transaction Effective

WR official #1 — John Metchie III · Availability unknown

NOWeek 10 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Tyler Shough · Full

QB official #2 — Spencer Rattler · Full

QB official #3 — Zach Wilson · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Alvin Kamara · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — CJ Donaldson · Out

TE official #1 — Juwan Johnson · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Noah Fant · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — Oscar Delp · Current status: Transaction Effective

WR official #1 — Chris Olave · Questionable

WR official #2 — Barion Brown · Questionable

WR official #1 — Devaughn Vele · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Bryce Lance · Current status: Transaction Effective

WR official #1 — Player 2045 · Questionable

WR official #2 — Barion Brown · Questionable

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonCARNO
Projected points22.023.8
Win probability (regulation)41.9%53.4%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status61 updates57 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 156 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 44 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

NO recent scoring form vs CAR prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 22.3; opponent allowed 32.0.

CAR recent scoring form vs NO prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 17.7; opponent allowed 21.7.