EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

BUF at NYJ

Sunday, November 15 · 12:00 PM CST

BUF 29.7 — NYJ 19.3

BUF clear edge · BUF 77.6%

Projected total 48.9 · Confidence: projected qb · limited input

PardonMe projects BUF clear edge.

PA-1 game simulations

The early projection is retained. No updated pregame simulation is available.

EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

Nov 10, 1:26:41 AM CST · 4,000 D4 simulations · regulation only

Projected scoreBUF 29.7 — NYJ 19.3
Expected total48.9
Regulation win probabilitiesBUF 77.6% · NYJ 19.6%Tie 2.8%

Quarterbacks modeled

BUF Josh Allen (canonical ID 277) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.5190
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 10, 1:26:41 AM CST.

NYJ Geno Smith (canonical ID 2225) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.0201
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 10, 1:26:41 AM CST.

Evidence and limitations

pa1-live-2026-v1.2 · code b668552219d54ed8f55b67869a53876e7f138d55 · model 7a80460eec2884d4d9a7c1b040983a14dcb298f6c5793670d58c81d0e498088e · record d7551d070efc66676c94e0936d4a4d3dc48b8d00d18e00004ce3a163dd5063e9

Evidence cutoff: Nov 10, 1:26:41 AM CST. Unknown availability stays unknown; a projected lineup is not a confirmed healthy lineup.

  • BUF: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • NYJ: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • BUF: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • NYJ: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • Projected from the quarterback who led the previous completed game; no newer official depth chart or announcement contradicts it.
  • Current official injury report completeness unproven; absence is not a healthy designation.
  • Projected from official depth order and known eligibility; no confirmed starter announcement required.
  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.
Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models — separate from the PA-1 game simulation. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Individual QB stat lines appear only when a starter is confirmed. The PA-1 game simulation above uses the quarterbacks it lists (projected or confirmed), so this section can differ from it.

Running back ranges

James Cook III · BUF

Opportunities
21.2 mean · 24.0 median · 12.0–27.0 80%
Carries
18.9 mean · 20.0 median · 11.0–25.0 80%
Targets
2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Rushing yards
82 mean · 83 median · 41–121 80%
Receptions
1.7 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
13 mean · 11 median · 0–30 80%
Total TD
51% 1+
High

Ty Johnson · BUF

Opportunities
5.5 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–12.0 80%
Carries
3.4 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–9.0 80%
Targets
2.1 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Rushing yards
22 mean · 17 median · 0–49 80%
Receptions
1.7 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
15 mean · 10 median · 0–35 80%
Total TD
21% 1+
High

Braelon Allen · NYJ

Opportunities
17.8 mean · 15.0 median · 10.0–28.0 80%
Carries
14.6 mean · 13.0 median · 8.0–24.0 80%
Targets
3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Rushing yards
60 mean · 52 median · 29–104 80%
Receptions
2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
17 mean · 14 median · 0–34 80%
Total TD
38% 1+
Medium

Breece Hall · NYJ

Opportunities
15.9 mean · 16.0 median · 10.0–21.0 80%
Carries
13.9 mean · 14.0 median · 8.0–19.0 80%
Targets
2.0 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Rushing yards
51 mean · 50 median · 28–76 80%
Receptions
1.7 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
16 mean · 16 median · 0–33 80%
Total TD
35% 1+
High

Receiver and tight end ranges

Dalton Kincaid · BUF · TE

Targets
3.9 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
43 mean · 40 median · 14–81 80%
Receiving TD
20% 1+
High

Dawson Knox · BUF · TE

Targets
2.8 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receptions
2.0 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
16 mean · 16 median · 0–32 80%
Receiving TD
15% 1+
High

Keon Coleman · BUF · WR

Targets
5.1 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
3.3 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
44 mean · 39 median · 13–79 80%
Receiving TD
31% 1+
High

DJ Moore · BUF · WR

Targets
6.2 mean · 6.0 median · 3.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.8 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
53 mean · 56 median · 14–84 80%
Receiving TD
38% 1+
High

Khalil Shakir · BUF · WR

Targets
5.8 mean · 6.0 median · 3.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
4.5 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
54 mean · 48 median · 25–83 80%
Receiving TD
22% 1+
High

Jeremy Ruckert · NYJ · TE

Targets
2.8 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receptions
2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
20 mean · 15 median · 6–37 80%
Receiving TD
17% 1+
High

Mason Taylor · NYJ · TE

Targets
4.5 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
28 mean · 27 median · 10–52 80%
Receiving TD
21% 1+
Medium

Omar Cooper Jr. · NYJ · WR

Targets
6.9 mean · 7.0 median · 2.0–12.0 80%
Receptions
5.0 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receiving yards
73 mean · 75 median · 18–133 80%
Receiving TD
31% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Adonai Mitchell · NYJ · WR

Targets
7.3 mean · 7.0 median · 3.0–12.0 80%
Receptions
3.5 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
49 mean · 45 median · 16–87 80%
Receiving TD
27% 1+
High

Garrett Wilson · NYJ · WR

Targets
7.4 mean · 7.0 median · 3.0–12.0 80%
Receptions
4.7 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receiving yards
57 mean · 50 median · 14–98 80%
Receiving TD
31% 1+
High

14 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Other PardonMe models (comparison)

The PA-1 simulation above is the forecast of record. These earlier models are kept for comparison and are not combined with it.

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

BUF 25.1 — NYJ 21.5

BUF · 64.1% win probability

Margin
BUF 3.6
Total
46.6

As of Nov 10, 2026 11:36 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

BUFWeek 10 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Josh Allen · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Kyle Allen · Current status: Transaction Effective

RB official #1 — James Cook III · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Ray Davis · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — Ty Johnson · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Dalton Kincaid · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Dawson Knox · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — Jackson Hawes · Availability unknown

TE official #4 — Keleki Latu · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Khalil Shakir · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Greg Dortch · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — DJ Moore · Limited

WR official #2 — Skyler Bell · Inactive for Week 9

WR official #1 — Keon Coleman · Limited

NYJWeek 10 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Expected lineup needs a current update.

RB: Expected lineup needs a current update.

TE: Expected lineup needs a current update.

TE: Expected lineup needs a current update.

WR: Expected lineup needs a current update.

WR: Expected lineup needs a current update.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Geno Smith · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Cade Klubnik · Current status: Transaction Effective

RB official #1 — Breece Hall · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Braelon Allen · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — Isaiah Davis · Availability unknown

RB official #4 — Kene Nwangwu · Questionable

TE official #1 — Mason Taylor · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Kenyon Sadiq · Questionable

TE official #1 — Jeremy Ruckert · Limited

TE official #2 — Jelani Woods · Current status: Transaction Effective

WR official #1 — Adonai Mitchell · Questionable

WR official #2 — Tim Patrick · Questionable

WR official #3 — Malik McClain · Waived

WR official #1 — Garrett Wilson · Questionable

WR official #2 — Omar Cooper Jr. · Questionable

WR official #3 — Isaiah Williams · Availability unknown

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonBUFNYJ
Projected points29.719.3
Win probability (regulation)77.6%19.6%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status61 updates73 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 127 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 24 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

NYJ recent scoring form vs BUF prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 23.3; opponent allowed 15.3.

BUF recent scoring form vs NYJ prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 30.7; opponent allowed 33.7.