UPDATED PREGAME SIMULATION

SEA at LV

Sunday, November 15 · 3:05 PM CST

SEA 24.3 — LV 18.0

SEA edge · SEA 66.5%

Projected total 42.3 · Confidence: projected qb · limited input

PardonMe projects SEA edge.

PA-1 game simulations

3 updated simulations have been published; the newest is shown. Each is retained.

UPDATED PREGAME SIMULATION

Nov 13, 5:12:54 PM CST · 4,000 D4 simulations · regulation only

Projected scoreSEA 24.3 — LV 18.0
Expected total42.3
Regulation win probabilitiesSEA 66.5% · LV 29.3%Tie 4.2%

Quarterbacks modeled

LV Fernando Mendoza (canonical ID 1482) · CONFIRMED · D4 capability -0.0096
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 13, 5:12:54 PM CST.

SEA Drew Lock (canonical ID 2583) · PROJECTED · D4 capability -0.1933
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 13, 5:12:54 PM CST.

Alternative QB scenarios

Each available alternative uses another 4,000 draws with the other team's primary QB held fixed. These are conditional outcomes; no probability of starting is assigned.

Aidan O'Connell (ID 1487): capability -0.4204 · SEA 24.4 — LV 17.6 · total 42.0 (change -0.3) · LV win 27.9% (change -1.5 percentage points).

Jalen Milroe (ID 2588): capability 0.0000 · SEA 24.6 — LV 17.9 · total 42.5 (change +0.2) · LV win 28.9% (change -0.5 percentage points).

Evidence and limitations

pa1-live-2026-v1.2 · code b668552219d54ed8f55b67869a53876e7f138d55 · model 7a80460eec2884d4d9a7c1b040983a14dcb298f6c5793670d58c81d0e498088e · record c5bc5c084c3f7fc9ffddf7ef53a726bd88209b187b0ceddee008c20fc31b69b9

Evidence cutoff: Nov 13, 5:12:54 PM CST. Unknown availability stays unknown; a projected lineup is not a confirmed healthy lineup.

  • LV: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • SEA: no verified-complete official inactive list (DESIGNATIONS_ONLY)
  • SEA: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • Newer official depth chart names a different quarterback than the previous game; the chart is used and the previous starter is run as a separate scenario.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-11-13 22:46:44.
  • Projected from official depth order and known eligibility; no confirmed starter announcement required.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-11-13 22:46:47.
  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.

EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

Nov 10, 1:27:11 AM CST · 4,000 D4 simulations · regulation only

Projected scoreSEA 24.4 — LV 18.4
Expected total42.8
Regulation win probabilitiesSEA 65.5% · LV 30.4%Tie 4.1%

Quarterbacks modeled

LV Kirk Cousins (canonical ID 1466) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.4864
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 10, 1:27:11 AM CST.

SEA Drew Lock (canonical ID 2583) · PROJECTED · D4 capability -0.1934
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 10, 1:27:11 AM CST.

Evidence and limitations

pa1-live-2026-v1.2 · code b668552219d54ed8f55b67869a53876e7f138d55 · model 7a80460eec2884d4d9a7c1b040983a14dcb298f6c5793670d58c81d0e498088e · record 5d90c1e9c47ffba31a5f5a62a10ae07e9cd52e70f236bb5e626ede0192366af4

Evidence cutoff: Nov 10, 1:27:11 AM CST. Unknown availability stays unknown; a projected lineup is not a confirmed healthy lineup.

  • LV: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • SEA: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • LV: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • SEA: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • Projected from the quarterback who led the previous completed game; no newer official depth chart or announcement contradicts it.
  • Current official injury report completeness unproven; absence is not a healthy designation.
  • Projected from official depth order and known eligibility; no confirmed starter announcement required.
  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.

Change from early to updated: total -0.5 points; home win probability -1.1 percentage points. Both original records remain available above.

Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models — separate from the PA-1 game simulation. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Individual QB stat lines appear only when a starter is confirmed. The PA-1 game simulation above uses the quarterbacks it lists (projected or confirmed), so this section can differ from it.

Running back ranges

Ashton Jeanty · LV

Opportunities
13.0 mean · 12.0 median · 1.0–23.0 80%
Carries
9.4 mean · 9.0 median · 0.0–17.0 80%
Targets
3.6 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Rushing yards
36 mean · 34 median · 0–68 80%
Receptions
2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
22 mean · 18 median · 0–47 80%
Total TD
31% 1+
Medium

Mike Washington Jr. · LV

Opportunities
12.1 mean · 11.0 median · 4.0–22.0 80%
Carries
10.1 mean · 9.0 median · 3.0–18.0 80%
Targets
2.1 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Rushing yards
43 mean · 38 median · 13–80 80%
Receptions
1.7 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
13 mean · 11 median · 0–31 80%
Total TD
31% 1+
Medium

George Holani · SEA

Opportunities
6.6 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–14.0 80%
Carries
4.8 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–11.0 80%
Targets
1.8 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Rushing yards
29 mean · 25 median · 15–52 80%
Receptions
1.5 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
12 mean · 9 median · 0–30 80%
Total TD
27% 1+
Medium

Emanuel Wilson · SEA

Opportunities
14.5 mean · 13.0 median · 6.0–23.0 80%
Carries
13.8 mean · 13.0 median · 6.0–22.0 80%
Targets
0.8 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
Rushing yards
57 mean · 53 median · 24–93 80%
Receptions
0.7 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
Receiving yards
7 mean · 0 median · 0–24 80%
Total TD
39% 1+
Medium

Receiver and tight end ranges

Brock Bowers · LV · TE

Targets
8.3 mean · 9.0 median · 4.0–12.0 80%
Receptions
5.9 mean · 6.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receiving yards
71 mean · 75 median · 29–112 80%
Receiving TD
39% 1+
High

Michael Mayer · LV · TE

Targets
5.2 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–10.0 80%
Receptions
4.1 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
Receiving yards
42 mean · 32 median · 11–83 80%
Receiving TD
20% 1+
High

Jalen Nailor · LV · WR

Targets
4.8 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
2.7 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
30 mean · 33 median · 10–45 80%
Receiving TD
23% 1+
High

Tre Tucker · LV · WR

Targets
5.8 mean · 6.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
3.6 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
52 mean · 44 median · 14–87 80%
Receiving TD
27% 1+
High

AJ Barner · SEA · TE

Targets
5.3 mean · 5.0 median · 3.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
3.4 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
34 mean · 31 median · 11–61 80%
Receiving TD
24% 1+
High

Eric Saubert · SEA · TE

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

Irv Charles · SEA · WR

Targets
1.4 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receptions
1.0 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
13 mean · 0 median · 0–51 80%
Receiving TD
8% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Cooper Kupp · SEA · WR

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

Jaxon Smith-Njigba · SEA · WR

Targets
10.1 mean · 11.0 median · 6.0–14.0 80%
Receptions
7.6 mean · 8.0 median · 4.0–11.0 80%
Receiving yards
104 mean · 103 median · 49–158 80%
Receiving TD
52% 1+
High

11 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Other PardonMe models (comparison)

The PA-1 simulation above is the forecast of record. These earlier models are kept for comparison and are not combined with it.

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

SEA 21.6 — LV 22.8

LV · 50.2% win probability

Margin
LV 1.2
Total
44.4

As of Nov 10, 2026 11:36 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

SEAWeek 10 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Backup availability is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Official depth order is ambiguous.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Sam Darnold · Out

QB official #2 — Drew Lock · Limited

QB official #3 — Jalen Milroe · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Zach Charbonnet · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Jadarian Price · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — Emanuel Wilson · Current status: Transaction Effective

RB official #4 — George Holani · Full

TE official #1 — AJ Barner · Full

TE official #2 — Eric Saubert · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — Nick Kallerup · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Jaxon Smith-Njigba · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Tory Horton · Full

WR official #1 — Rashid Shaheed · Full

WR official #1 — Cooper Kupp · Availability unknown

LVWeek 10 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Fernando Mendoza · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Ashton Jeanty · Full

RB official #2 — Mike Washington Jr. · Questionable

RB official #3 — Dylan Laube · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Brock Bowers · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Michael Mayer · Current status: Transaction Effective

TE official #3 — Ian Thomas · Full

WR official #1 — Tre Tucker · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Jack Bech · Questionable

WR official #3 — Dareke Young · Full

WR official #3 — Cody White · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Jalen Nailor · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Malik Benson · Full

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonSEALV
Projected points24.318.0
Win probability (regulation)66.5%29.3%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status46 updates76 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 133 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 42 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

SEA recent scoring form vs LV prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 18.0; opponent allowed 35.3.

LV recent scoring form vs SEA prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 25.3; opponent allowed 13.3.