UPDATED PREGAME SIMULATION

LAR at ARI

Sunday, November 15 · 3:05 PM CST

LAR 25.4 — ARI 19.6

LAR edge · LAR 65.7%

Projected total 44.9 · Confidence: projected qb · limited input

PardonMe projects LAR edge.

PA-1 game simulations

UPDATED PREGAME SIMULATION

Nov 11, 4:03:52 PM CST · 4,000 D4 simulations · regulation only

Projected scoreLAR 25.4 — ARI 19.6
Expected total44.9
Regulation win probabilitiesLAR 65.7% · ARI 30.5%Tie 3.8%

Quarterbacks modeled

ARI Carson Beck (canonical ID 3) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.0000
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 11, 4:03:52 PM CST.

LA Matthew Stafford (canonical ID 1678) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.3013
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 11, 4:03:52 PM CST.

Alternative QB scenarios

Each available alternative uses another 4,000 draws with the other team's primary QB held fixed. These are conditional outcomes; no probability of starting is assigned.

Gardner Minshew II (ID 29): capability -0.2627 · LAR 25.4 — ARI 19.4 · total 44.8 (change -0.1) · ARI win 29.7% (change -0.8 percentage points).

Evidence and limitations

pa1-live-2026-v1.2 · code b668552219d54ed8f55b67869a53876e7f138d55 · model 7a80460eec2884d4d9a7c1b040983a14dcb298f6c5793670d58c81d0e498088e · record a8a3663c275523b85e0c682d473a929c146739dce9509a909c54ec52b48a5796

Evidence cutoff: Nov 11, 4:03:52 PM CST. Unknown availability stays unknown; a projected lineup is not a confirmed healthy lineup.

  • ARI: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • LA: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • ARI: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • LA: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • Newer official depth chart names a different quarterback than the previous game; the chart is used and the previous starter is run as a separate scenario.
  • Current official injury report completeness unproven; absence is not a healthy designation.
  • Projected from official depth order and known eligibility; no confirmed starter announcement required.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-11-11 21:10:38.
  • Official depth chart observed at 2026-11-11 21:10:39.
  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.

EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

Nov 10, 1:27:41 AM CST · 4,000 D4 simulations · regulation only

Projected scoreLAR 25.4 — ARI 19.4
Expected total44.8
Regulation win probabilitiesLAR 66.5% · ARI 29.7%Tie 3.8%

Quarterbacks modeled

ARI Gardner Minshew II (canonical ID 29) · CONFIRMED · D4 capability -0.2627
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 10, 1:27:41 AM CST.

LA Matthew Stafford (canonical ID 1678) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.3012
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 10, 1:27:41 AM CST.

Evidence and limitations

pa1-live-2026-v1.2 · code b668552219d54ed8f55b67869a53876e7f138d55 · model 7a80460eec2884d4d9a7c1b040983a14dcb298f6c5793670d58c81d0e498088e · record ca4c9a1f7350bd5ae4ec23d2e2b06739f52db2928790cfd698e085d843a8cc75

Evidence cutoff: Nov 10, 1:27:41 AM CST. Unknown availability stays unknown; a projected lineup is not a confirmed healthy lineup.

  • ARI: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • LA: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • LA: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • Projected from the quarterback who led the previous completed game; no newer official depth chart or announcement contradicts it.
  • Current official injury report completeness unproven; absence is not a healthy designation.
  • Projected from official depth order and known eligibility; no confirmed starter announcement required.
  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.

Change from early to updated: total +0.1 points; home win probability +0.8 percentage points. Both original records remain available above.

Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models — separate from the PA-1 game simulation. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Individual QB stat lines appear only when a starter is confirmed. The PA-1 game simulation above uses the quarterbacks it lists (projected or confirmed), so this section can differ from it.

Running back ranges

Tyler Allgeier · ARI

Opportunities
19.1 mean · 17.0 median · 12.0–26.0 80%
Carries
15.4 mean · 14.0 median · 9.0–22.0 80%
Targets
3.7 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Rushing yards
51 mean · 45 median · 23–85 80%
Receptions
2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
16 mean · 14 median · 0–32 80%
Total TD
37% 1+
High

Jeremiyah Love · ARI

Opportunities
13.5 mean · 13.0 median · 7.0–24.0 80%
Carries
11.7 mean · 11.0 median · 6.0–20.0 80%
Targets
1.9 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Rushing yards
48 mean · 43 median · 24–80 80%
Receptions
1.6 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
12 mean · 12 median · 0–28 80%
Total TD
36% 1+
Medium

Blake Corum · LAR

Opportunities
13.8 mean · 13.0 median · 8.0–20.0 80%
Carries
11.8 mean · 11.0 median · 7.0–17.0 80%
Targets
2.0 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Rushing yards
54 mean · 50 median · 30–80 80%
Receptions
1.5 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
13 mean · 9 median · 0–27 80%
Total TD
37% 1+
Medium

Kyren Williams · LAR

Opportunities
17.3 mean · 16.0 median · 10.0–28.0 80%
Carries
13.1 mean · 13.0 median · 7.0–20.0 80%
Targets
4.3 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Rushing yards
56 mean · 52 median · 27–90 80%
Receptions
3.0 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
22 mean · 21 median · 7–42 80%
Total TD
39% 1+
High

Receiver and tight end ranges

Elijah Higgins · ARI · TE

Targets
4.2 mean · 4.0 median · 3.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
3.3 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
32 mean · 29 median · 18–48 80%
Receiving TD
19% 1+
High

Trey McBride · ARI · TE

Targets
7.6 mean · 8.0 median · 3.0–11.0 80%
Receptions
5.8 mean · 6.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receiving yards
50 mean · 53 median · 20–78 80%
Receiving TD
31% 1+
High

Kendrick Bourne · ARI · WR

Targets
5.5 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.9 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
43 mean · 43 median · 21–75 80%
Receiving TD
18% 1+
High

Jalen Brooks · ARI · WR

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium

Michael Wilson · ARI · WR

Targets
7.6 mean · 7.0 median · 2.0–14.0 80%
Receptions
4.6 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–9.0 80%
Receiving yards
57 mean · 53 median · 16–103 80%
Receiving TD
30% 1+
High

Davis Allen · LAR · TE

Targets
3.5 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
22 mean · 18 median · 8–44 80%
Receiving TD
18% 1+
Medium

Colby Parkinson · LAR · TE

Targets
3.7 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
2.6 mean · 3.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
24 mean · 27 median · 0–45 80%
Receiving TD
20% 1+
High

CJ Daniels · LAR · WR

Targets
4.8 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.0 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
38 mean · 25 median · 0–76 80%
Receiving TD
20% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Puka Nacua · LAR · WR

Targets
9.9 mean · 9.0 median · 4.0–17.0 80%
Receptions
7.6 mean · 7.0 median · 3.0–14.0 80%
Receiving yards
94 mean · 83 median · 32–170 80%
Receiving TD
45% 1+
High

Alex Bachman · LAR · WR

Targets
1.5 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receptions
1.2 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
15 mean · 0 median · 0–45 80%
Receiving TD
11% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

12 individualized projections · 1 baseline projection. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Other PardonMe models (comparison)

The PA-1 simulation above is the forecast of record. These earlier models are kept for comparison and are not combined with it.

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

LAR 23.3 — ARI 20.4

LAR · 62.6% win probability

Margin
LAR 2.9
Total
43.7

As of Nov 10, 2026 11:36 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

LARWeek 10 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Official depth order is ambiguous.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Matthew Stafford · Full

QB official #2 — Stetson Bennett IV · Availability unknown

QB official #3 — Ty Simpson · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Kyren Williams · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Blake Corum · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — Ronnie Rivers · Full

TE official #1 — Tyler Higbee · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Davis Allen · Questionable

TE official #1 — Colby Parkinson · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Max Klare · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Konata Mumpfield · Full

WR official #2 — CJ Daniels · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Puka Nacua · Did not participate

WR official #2 — Jordan Whittington · Questionable

WR official #3 — Tutu Atwell · Availability unknown

ARIWeek 10 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Gardner Minshew II · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Tyler Allgeier · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Bam Knight · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — Evan Hull · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Trey McBride · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Elijah Higgins · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Teagan Quitoriano · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Simi Fehoko · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Devin Duvernay · Did not participate

WR official #1 — Reggie Virgil · Full

WR official #2 — Harrison Wallace III · Availability unknown

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonLARARI
Projected points25.419.6
Win probability (regulation)65.7%30.5%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status58 updates35 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 155 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 50 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

ARI recent scoring form vs LAR prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 17.3; opponent allowed 14.3.

LAR recent scoring form vs ARI prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 26.3; opponent allowed 25.7.