EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

SF at DAL

Sunday, November 15 · 3:25 PM CST

SF 29.3 — DAL 25.4

SF slight edge · SF 60.1%

Projected total 54.6 · Confidence: projected qb · limited input

PardonMe projects SF slight edge.

PA-1 game simulations

The early projection is retained. No updated pregame simulation is available.

EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

Nov 10, 1:28:12 AM CST · 4,000 D4 simulations · regulation only

Projected scoreSF 29.3 — DAL 25.4
Expected total54.6
Regulation win probabilitiesSF 60.1% · DAL 35.8%Tie 4.2%

Quarterbacks modeled

DAL Dak Prescott (canonical ID 759) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.5435
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 10, 1:28:12 AM CST.

SF Brock Purdy (canonical ID 2499) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 1.4443
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 10, 1:28:12 AM CST.

Evidence and limitations

pa1-live-2026-v1.2 · code b668552219d54ed8f55b67869a53876e7f138d55 · model 7a80460eec2884d4d9a7c1b040983a14dcb298f6c5793670d58c81d0e498088e · record ba8b47931f11e57f10ecc1cfc8021f28c0a676944dd416b485af9bf394caf267

Evidence cutoff: Nov 10, 1:28:12 AM CST. Unknown availability stays unknown; a projected lineup is not a confirmed healthy lineup.

  • DAL: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • SF: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • DAL: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • SF: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • Projected from the quarterback who led the previous completed game; no newer official depth chart or announcement contradicts it.
  • Current official injury report completeness unproven; absence is not a healthy designation.
  • Projected from official depth order and known eligibility; no confirmed starter announcement required.
  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.
Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models — separate from the PA-1 game simulation. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Individual QB stat lines appear only when a starter is confirmed. The PA-1 game simulation above uses the quarterbacks it lists (projected or confirmed), so this section can differ from it.

Running back ranges

Javonte Williams · DAL

Opportunities
19.4 mean · 18.0 median · 13.0–27.0 80%
Carries
16.3 mean · 15.0 median · 10.0–23.0 80%
Targets
3.1 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Rushing yards
62 mean · 59 median · 34–95 80%
Receptions
2.2 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
15 mean · 14 median · 0–28 80%
Total TD
48% 1+
High

Emari Demercado · DAL

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium

Kaelon Black · SF

Opportunities
9.7 mean · 8.0 median · 4.0–16.0 80%
Carries
8.6 mean · 7.0 median · 4.0–15.0 80%
Targets
1.1 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Rushing yards
41 mean · 34 median · 18–70 80%
Receptions
0.9 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–2.0 80%
Receiving yards
6 mean · 4 median · 0–18 80%
Total TD
26% 1+
Medium

Christian McCaffrey · SF

Opportunities
16.5 mean · 17.0 median · 9.0–26.0 80%
Carries
11.9 mean · 12.0 median · 6.0–19.0 80%
Targets
4.6 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Rushing yards
52 mean · 50 median · 24–85 80%
Receptions
3.3 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
24 mean · 22 median · 7–47 80%
Total TD
44% 1+
High

Receiver and tight end ranges

Jake Ferguson · DAL · TE

Targets
2.9 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receptions
2.0 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
16 mean · 14 median · 0–31 80%
Receiving TD
19% 1+
High

Brevyn Spann-Ford · DAL · TE

Targets
3.6 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
2.5 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
24 mean · 19 median · 10–39 80%
Receiving TD
16% 1+
Medium

Ryan Flournoy · DAL · WR

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium

CeeDee Lamb · DAL · WR

Targets
10.0 mean · 9.0 median · 2.0–18.0 80%
Receptions
6.9 mean · 6.0 median · 2.0–13.0 80%
Receiving yards
85 mean · 81 median · 20–156 80%
Receiving TD
43% 1+
High

George Pickens · DAL · WR

Targets
6.5 mean · 6.0 median · 3.0–11.0 80%
Receptions
4.3 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–8.0 80%
Receiving yards
62 mean · 58 median · 15–115 80%
Receiving TD
26% 1+
High

George Kittle · SF · TE

Targets
7.4 mean · 8.0 median · 5.0–10.0 80%
Receptions
5.9 mean · 6.0 median · 3.0–8.0 80%
Receiving yards
73 mean · 78 median · 41–103 80%
Receiving TD
36% 1+
High

Brayden Willis · SF · TE

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Insufficient Evidence

Mike Evans · SF · WR

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

Demarcus Robinson · SF · WR

Targets
4.5 mean · 4.0 median · 3.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
42 mean · 38 median · 25–63 80%
Receiving TD
22% 1+
High

De'Zhaun Stribling · SF · WR

Targets
4.8 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–9.0 80%
Receptions
3.0 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
38 mean · 25 median · 13–76 80%
Receiving TD
20% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

9 individualized projections · 1 baseline projection. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Other PardonMe models (comparison)

The PA-1 simulation above is the forecast of record. These earlier models are kept for comparison and are not combined with it.

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

SF 22.8 — DAL 25.5

DAL · 54.2% win probability

Margin
DAL 2.6
Total
48.3

As of Nov 10, 2026 11:36 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

SFWeek 10 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Backup availability is not confirmed.

WR: Official depth is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Brock Purdy · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Mac Jones · Availability unknown

QB official #3 — Kurtis Rourke · Inactive for Week 9

RB official #1 — Christian McCaffrey · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Kaelon Black · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — Jordan James · Inactive for Week 4

TE official #1 — George Kittle · Reserve status: Active Pup

TE official #2 — Luke Farrell · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — Brayden Willis · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Mike Evans · Out

WR official #2 — Jordan Watkins · Inactive for Week 2

WR official #3 — Player 3074 · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Demarcus Robinson · Full

WR official #3 — Jacob Cowing · Full

DALWeek 10 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Official depth order is ambiguous.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Dak Prescott · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Sam Howell · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Javonte Williams · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Tyler Goodson · Did not participate

TE official #1 — Jake Ferguson · Did not participate

TE official #1 — Brevyn Spann-Ford · Full

TE official #2 — Luke Schoonmaker · Full

WR official #1 — George Pickens · Limited

WR official #2 — Camden Brown · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — CeeDee Lamb · Full

WR official #2 — Jonathan Mingo · Did not participate

WR official #1 — Ryan Flournoy · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — KaVontae Turpin · Limited

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonSFDAL
Projected points29.325.4
Win probability (regulation)60.1%35.8%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status68 updates28 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 125 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 41 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

DAL recent scoring form vs SF prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 31.7; opponent allowed 21.0.

SF recent scoring form vs DAL prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 27.0; opponent allowed 25.7.