EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

PIT at CIN

Sunday, November 15 · 7:20 PM CST

PIT 23.6 — CIN 25.1

CIN slight edge · CIN 52.0%

Projected total 48.7 · Confidence: projected qb · limited input

PardonMe projects CIN slight edge.

PA-1 game simulations

The early projection is retained. No updated pregame simulation is available.

EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

Nov 10, 1:28:41 AM CST · 4,000 D4 simulations · regulation only

Projected scorePIT 23.6 — CIN 25.1
Expected total48.7
Regulation win probabilitiesPIT 43.2% · CIN 52.0%Tie 4.9%

Quarterbacks modeled

CIN Joe Burrow (canonical ID 557) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.3017
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 10, 1:28:41 AM CST.

PIT Aaron Rodgers (canonical ID 2409) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.3939
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 10, 1:28:41 AM CST.

Evidence and limitations

pa1-live-2026-v1.2 · code b668552219d54ed8f55b67869a53876e7f138d55 · model 7a80460eec2884d4d9a7c1b040983a14dcb298f6c5793670d58c81d0e498088e · record f028464602434878c47666de02efe39524e09703d6687f4d4d093d38e27c24a0

Evidence cutoff: Nov 10, 1:28:41 AM CST. Unknown availability stays unknown; a projected lineup is not a confirmed healthy lineup.

  • CIN: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • PIT: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • CIN: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • PIT: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • Projected from the quarterback who led the previous completed game; no newer official depth chart or announcement contradicts it.
  • Current official injury report completeness unproven; absence is not a healthy designation.
  • Projected from official depth order and known eligibility; no confirmed starter announcement required.
  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.
Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models — separate from the PA-1 game simulation. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Individual QB stat lines appear only when a starter is confirmed. The PA-1 game simulation above uses the quarterbacks it lists (projected or confirmed), so this section can differ from it.

Running back ranges

Chase Brown · CIN

Opportunities
12.5 mean · 13.0 median · 6.0–19.0 80%
Carries
9.1 mean · 9.0 median · 4.0–14.0 80%
Targets
3.4 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Rushing yards
37 mean · 36 median · 13–60 80%
Receptions
2.7 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
18 mean · 16 median · 0–35 80%
Total TD
30% 1+
High

Samaje Perine · CIN

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

Eli Heidenreich · PIT

Opportunities
4.4 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–12.0 80%
Carries
3.5 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–10.0 80%
Targets
0.9 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Rushing yards
22 mean · 17 median · 0–55 80%
Receptions
0.8 mean · 0.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
7 mean · 0 median · 0–22 80%
Total TD
17% 1+
Insufficient Evidence

Jaylen Warren · PIT

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

Receiver and tight end ranges

Mike Gesicki · CIN · TE

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

High

Drew Sample · CIN · TE

Targets
3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–4.0 80%
Receptions
2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
18 mean · 15 median · 6–30 80%
Receiving TD
15% 1+
High

Ja'Marr Chase · CIN · WR

Targets
8.3 mean · 9.0 median · 2.0–15.0 80%
Receptions
6.2 mean · 6.0 median · 2.0–11.0 80%
Receiving yards
75 mean · 77 median · 17–126 80%
Receiving TD
45% 1+
High

Tee Higgins · CIN · WR

Targets
7.4 mean · 7.0 median · 3.0–11.0 80%
Receptions
5.3 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–9.0 80%
Receiving yards
80 mean · 77 median · 32–137 80%
Receiving TD
45% 1+
High

Andrei Iosivas · CIN · WR

Targets
3.3 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
2.0 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
24 mean · 21 median · 0–57 80%
Receiving TD
15% 1+
High

Pat Freiermuth · PIT · TE

Targets
4.2 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–5.0 80%
Receptions
3.0 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
33 mean · 32 median · 11–54 80%
Receiving TD
22% 1+
High

Darnell Washington · PIT · TE

Targets
3.3 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
29 mean · 24 median · 12–48 80%
Receiving TD
17% 1+
High

DK Metcalf · PIT · WR

Targets
6.7 mean · 6.0 median · 3.0–12.0 80%
Receptions
3.9 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
51 mean · 44 median · 18–96 80%
Receiving TD
24% 1+
High

Michael Pittman Jr. · PIT · WR

Targets
4.6 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–11.0 80%
Receptions
2.9 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–7.0 80%
Receiving yards
29 mean · 20 median · 0–70 80%
Receiving TD
14% 1+
High

Roman Wilson · PIT · WR

Targets
5.1 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
44 mean · 40 median · 13–79 80%
Receiving TD
30% 1+
Medium

11 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Other PardonMe models (comparison)

The PA-1 simulation above is the forecast of record. These earlier models are kept for comparison and are not combined with it.

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

PIT 21.1 — CIN 26.7

CIN · 63.4% win probability

Margin
CIN 5.6
Total
47.8

As of Nov 10, 2026 11:36 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

PITWeek 10 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Official depth order is ambiguous.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Aaron Rodgers · Current status: Transaction Effective

QB official #2 — Mason Rudolph · Availability unknown

QB official #3 — Will Howard · Inactive for Week 4

QB official #4 — Drew Allar · Inactive for Week 4

RB official #1 — Jaylen Warren · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Rico Dowdle · Limited

RB official #3 — Eli Heidenreich · Inactive for Week 4

RB official #4 — Travis Homer · Released

RB official #5 — Lew Nichols · Waived

TE official #1 — Pat Freiermuth · Questionable

TE official #1 — Darnell Washington · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Robert Tonyan · Current status: Transaction Effective

WR official #1 — Ben Skowronek · Full

WR official #2 — Brandon Smith · Waived

WR official #1 — DK Metcalf · Questionable

WR official #2 — Kaden Wetjen · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Germie Bernard · Availability unknown

CINWeek 10 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

HB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

HB official #1 — Chase Brown · Availability unknown

HB official #2 — Samaje Perine · Availability unknown

HB official #3 — Tahj Brooks · Availability unknown

QB official #1 — Joe Burrow · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — Joe Flacco · Availability unknown

TE official #1 — Drew Sample · Availability unknown

TE official #2 — Mike Gesicki · Availability unknown

TE official #3 — Jack Endries · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Ja'Marr Chase · Questionable

WR official #1 — Dohnte Meyers · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Tee Higgins · Questionable

WR official #2 — Colbie Young · Questionable

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonPITCIN
Projected points23.625.1
Win probability (regulation)43.2%52.0%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status74 updates37 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 120 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 39 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

CIN recent scoring form vs PIT prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 37.3; opponent allowed 11.7.

PIT recent scoring form vs CIN prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 23.0; opponent allowed 22.0.