EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

LAC at BAL

Monday, November 16 · 7:15 PM CST

LAC 19.6 — BAL 20.4

Nearly even · BAL 49.7%

Projected total 40.0 · Confidence: projected qb · limited input

PardonMe projects Nearly even.

PA-1 game simulations

The early projection is retained. No updated pregame simulation is available.

EARLY SIMULATION — PROJECTED LINEUP

Nov 10, 1:29:10 AM CST · 4,000 D4 simulations · regulation only

Projected scoreLAC 19.6 — BAL 20.4
Expected total40.0
Regulation win probabilitiesLAC 45.9% · BAL 49.7%Tie 4.4%

Quarterbacks modeled

BAL Joe Fagnano (canonical ID 193) · PROJECTED · D4 capability -0.3527
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 10, 1:29:10 AM CST.

LAC Justin Herbert (canonical ID 1567) · PROJECTED · D4 capability 0.2399
Conditional primary projection, not a probability that this quarterback starts. Evidence as of Nov 10, 1:29:10 AM CST.

Evidence and limitations

pa1-live-2026-v1.2 · code b668552219d54ed8f55b67869a53876e7f138d55 · model 7a80460eec2884d4d9a7c1b040983a14dcb298f6c5793670d58c81d0e498088e · record 503866960c068ded8441dd7ca539795aa6fba5a5179d4ad779d512c28bb39180

Evidence cutoff: Nov 10, 1:29:10 AM CST. Unknown availability stays unknown; a projected lineup is not a confirmed healthy lineup.

  • BAL: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • LAC: no verified-complete official inactive list (NONE)
  • BAL: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • LAC: quarterback PROJECTED from a fresh official chart + current injury report + clean news scan, not officially confirmed
  • Projected from the quarterback who led the previous completed game; no newer official depth chart or announcement contradicts it.
  • Current official injury report completeness unproven; absence is not a healthy designation.
  • Projected from official depth order and known eligibility; no confirmed starter announcement required.
  • Event templates are the origin-(2026,1) pool; the QB level-2 fit is not point-in-time.
  • Shadow arm B (alloc_u, INCONCLUSIVE) is a development candidate and is never the forecast of record.
  • Regulation only; overtime is not modelled.
  • Historical personnel evidence behind the mechanisms is reconstruction-grade.
Player stat models

Player projections

Existing QB, RB, WR and TE statistical models — separate from the PA-1 game simulation. Each line shows mean · median · 80% range.

Individual QB stat lines appear only when a starter is confirmed. The PA-1 game simulation above uses the quarterbacks it lists (projected or confirmed), so this section can differ from it.

Running back ranges

Derrick Henry · BAL

Opportunities
18.9 mean · 18.0 median · 10.0–26.0 80%
Carries
17.6 mean · 17.0 median · 9.0–25.0 80%
Targets
1.3 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Rushing yards
75 mean · 71 median · 36–119 80%
Receptions
1.0 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–3.0 80%
Receiving yards
8 mean · 6 median · 0–20 80%
Total TD
49% 1+
High

Justice Hill · BAL

Opportunities
8.9 mean · 7.0 median · 5.0–15.0 80%
Carries
4.8 mean · 4.0 median · 1.0–9.0 80%
Targets
4.1 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
Rushing yards
36 mean · 27 median · 12–70 80%
Receptions
3.0 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
21 mean · 18 median · 6–39 80%
Total TD
28% 1+
High

Omarion Hampton · LAC

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium

Receiver and tight end ranges

Mark Andrews · BAL · TE

Targets
4.3 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–6.0 80%
Receptions
3.2 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
27 mean · 27 median · 10–43 80%
Receiving TD
18% 1+
High

Josh Cuevas · BAL · TE

Targets
2.2 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receptions
1.7 mean · 1.0 median · 0.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
23 mean · 23 median · 0–46 80%
Receiving TD
14% 1+
Medium

Rashod Bateman · BAL · WR

Targets
4.2 mean · 4.0 median · 2.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
2.6 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
37 mean · 28 median · 14–69 80%
Receiving TD
18% 1+
High

Zay Flowers · BAL · WR

Targets
7.9 mean · 7.0 median · 6.0–12.0 80%
Receptions
5.8 mean · 6.0 median · 3.0–9.0 80%
Receiving yards
87 mean · 81 median · 50–139 80%
Receiving TD
41% 1+
High

Devontez Walker · BAL · WR

No confirmed projection range yet from current role/status.

Medium

Charlie Kolar · LAC · TE

Targets
3.6 mean · 3.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
2.4 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
28 mean · 24 median · 11–47 80%
Receiving TD
17% 1+
Medium

David Njoku · LAC · TE

Targets
3.3 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
2.6 mean · 2.0 median · 0.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
26 mean · 19 median · 0–56 80%
Receiving TD
21% 1+
High

Tre' Harris · LAC · WR

Targets
5.9 mean · 6.0 median · 3.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
3.4 mean · 3.0 median · 1.0–6.0 80%
Receiving yards
45 mean · 40 median · 14–79 80%
Receiving TD
16% 1+
Medium

Quentin Johnston · LAC · WR

Targets
4.7 mean · 4.0 median · 3.0–8.0 80%
Receptions
2.3 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–4.0 80%
Receiving yards
39 mean · 32 median · 16–66 80%
Receiving TD
21% 1+
High

Ladd McConkey · LAC · WR

Targets
4.8 mean · 5.0 median · 2.0–7.0 80%
Receptions
2.6 mean · 2.0 median · 1.0–5.0 80%
Receiving yards
36 mean · 40 median · 13–67 80%
Receiving TD
20% 1+
High

11 individualized projections. Projected role and prior usage remain separate.

Players ruled out or suppressed by current injury and availability evidence are not projected. Player ranges are not produced by, and do not sum to, the PA-1 team scores.

Other PardonMe models (comparison)

The PA-1 simulation above is the forecast of record. These earlier models are kept for comparison and are not combined with it.

PardonMe Unified

Best historical score model

Unified unavailable — P5 baseline shown.

Full Football

Personnel-aware football model

Full Football unavailable.

P5 V4 baseline

Previous production baseline

LAC 19.3 — BAL 20.8

BAL · 50.3% win probability

Margin
BAL 1.5
Total
40.1

As of Nov 10, 2026 11:36 UTC

Current personnel

Expected lineup & depth

Expected order for this game, using official depth and supported availability.

LACWeek 10 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #1 — Justin Herbert · Availability unknown

QB official #2 — DJ Uiagalelei · Current status: Transaction Effective

RB official #1 — Omarion Hampton · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Keaton Mitchell · Limited

RB official #3 — Kimani Vidal · Current status: Transaction Effective

TE official #1 — Charlie Kolar · Full

TE official #2 — Oronde Gadsden · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Ladd McConkey · Did not participate

WR official #2 — Tre' Harris · Availability unknown

WR official #3 — Derius Davis · Availability unknown

WR official #3 — Theo Wease Jr. · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Quentin Johnston · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Brenen Thompson · Did not participate

BALWeek 10 expected order

No supported expected lineup snapshot is available for this game.

QB: Official depth is not confirmed.

RB: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

TE: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

WR: Current roster membership is not confirmed.

Official depth & availability evidence

QB official #2 — Joe Fagnano · Availability unknown

RB official #1 — Derrick Henry · Availability unknown

RB official #2 — Justice Hill · Availability unknown

RB official #3 — Rasheen Ali · Full

TE official #1 — Mark Andrews · Full

TE official #2 — Josh Cuevas · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Zay Flowers · Limited

WR official #2 — Devontez Walker · Availability unknown

WR official #3 — Elijah Sarratt · Availability unknown

WR official #1 — Rashod Bateman · Availability unknown

WR official #2 — Ja'Kobi Lane · Questionable

WR official #3 — LaJohntay Wester · Availability unknown

PardonMe is still being built. Projections are independent of sportsbook lines, and missing information remains visible.

Overview

Game comparisonLACBAL
Projected points19.620.4
Win probability (regulation)45.9%49.7%
Depth chartNot confirmed yetNot confirmed yet
Current status66 updates56 updates

Matchup context

Current expectation and observed workload are distinct

Official current depth is available for 2 of 2 clubs; 114 current-depth players have prior observed F2 role evidence and 40 were at least 50% offense/defense snap players in their latest supported observation. None is treated as a current snap-confirmed starter.

LAC recent scoring form vs BAL prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 12.3; opponent allowed 34.7.

BAL recent scoring form vs LAC prevention

2025 final-three scoring average 11.0; opponent allowed 30.0.