2024-25 NCAAM Season Complete
College Basketball
A full season of data — 6,284 games used to build and calibrate the model. Player season totals, team strength ratings, and predictive model accuracy are all live from the production database.
74.9%
Season ML Accuracy
328 of 438 games called correctly.
Calibrated against 6,284 historical games
with a 2.69 point home court advantage.
Model Performance — 2024-25 Season
Accuracy broken down by predicted spread size. Larger spreads = higher conviction = higher accuracy.
11+ pt favorite
97.2% (35/36)
High conviction picks
4–10 pt favorite
79.1% (163/206)
Medium conviction
1–3 pt favorite
66.3% (130/196)
Toss-up range
All games
74.9%
328/438 total
6,284
Games in calibration
2.69 pts
Home court advantage
13.2
Spread std deviation
3.45 pts
Total bias (corrected)
Model: ncaam_baseline_v1. Accuracy computed on completed games with confirmed final scores.
The model predicts point spreads and totals using team strength ratings, home-court adjustment,
and calibration coefficients fit on 6,284 historical NCAAM games.
No market odds are incorporated into the predictions themselves.
2024-25 Season Leaders
Minimum 20 games played.
| # | Player | PPG | RPG | APG | FG% | 3P% | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
AJ Dybantsa
BYU Cougars
|
23.7 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 44.3% | 23.8% | 35 |
| 2 |
Darius Acuff Jr.
Arkansas Razorbacks
|
22.2 | 2.9 | 6.1 | 44.2% | 46.9% | 37 |
| 3 |
Jordan Riley
East Carolina Pirates
|
21.8 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 35% | 30.8% | 31 |
| 4 |
P.J. Haggerty
Kansas State Wildcats
|
21.7 | 5.1 | 3.7 | 48.1% | 22.2% | 32 |
| 5 |
Josh Hubbard
Mississippi State Bulldogs
|
21.6 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 44.4% | 36.1% | 32 |
| 6 |
Nick Martinelli
Northwestern Wildcats
|
21.6 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 52.8% | 35% | 34 |
| 7 |
Cameron Boozer
Duke Blue Devils
|
21.4 | 9.6 | 4.0 | 47.8% | 34.3% | 38 |
| 8 |
Dominique Daniels Jr.
California Baptist Lancers
|
20.9 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 46.3% | 43.8% | 34 |
| 9 |
Juke Harris
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
|
20.7 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 38.5% | 24.5% | 35 |
| 10 |
Nick Boyd
Wisconsin Badgers
|
20.2 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 49.6% | 39.4% | 35 |
| # | Player | RPG | PPG | BPG | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Rueben Chinyelu
Florida Gators
|
10.7 | 10.6 | 1.0 | 35 |
| 2 |
Delrecco Gillespie
Kent State Golden Flashes
|
10.7 | 16.5 | 1.1 | 34 |
| 3 |
Justin Neely
UNC Greensboro Spartans
|
10.5 | 16.0 | 0.2 | 34 |
| 4 |
Michael Ajayi
Butler Bulldogs
|
10.2 | 15.6 | 0.8 | 32 |
| 5 |
Hannes Steinbach
Washington Huskies
|
10.1 | 15.8 | 1.1 | 33 |
| 6 |
Aidan Kehoe
Navy Midshipmen
|
10.1 | 14.1 | 1.2 | 34 |
| 7 |
Armani Mighty
Mercer Bears
|
10.1 | 12.3 | 1.6 | 32 |
| 8 |
Frank Mitchell
St. Bonaventure Bonnies
|
9.6 | 15.7 | 0.5 | 34 |
| 9 |
Cameron Boozer
Duke Blue Devils
|
9.6 | 21.4 | 0.6 | 38 |
| 10 |
Thomas Dowd
Troy Trojans
|
9.4 | 13.6 | 1.3 | 34 |
| # | Player | APG | PPG | TOV | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Braden Smith
Purdue Boilermakers
|
8.7 | 13.9 | 2.7 | 39 |
| 2 |
Jeremy Fears Jr.
Michigan State Spartans
|
8.6 | 14.2 | 2.3 | 35 |
| 3 |
Christian Anderson
Texas Tech Red Raiders
|
7.1 | 18.1 | 3.2 | 33 |
| 4 |
Donovan Dent
UCLA Bruins
|
6.8 | 12.1 | 1.7 | 36 |
| 5 |
Josiah Davis
Cal State Northridge Matadors
|
6.7 | 14.6 | 4.3 | 34 |
| 6 |
Themus Fulks
UCF Knights
|
6.6 | 13.7 | 3.2 | 33 |
| 7 |
Jay Rodgers
Central Connecticut Blue Devils
|
6.3 | 10.4 | 2.6 | 30 |
| 8 |
Brody Robinson
Oakland Golden Grizzlies
|
6.2 | 16.7 | 2.3 | 32 |
| 9 |
Mateo Esmeraldo
Lipscomb Bisons
|
6.2 | 9.0 | 1.4 | 32 |
| 10 |
Darius Acuff Jr.
Arkansas Razorbacks
|
6.1 | 22.2 | 2.1 | 37 |
Team Strength Ratings — 2024-25
Composite ratings built from player z-scores weighted by minutes played. Offensive and defensive components shown on a 0–1 national percentile scale.
Ratings are based on the 2024-25 season player data (12,480 player-season records).
National percentile = rank among all 350+ Division I programs.
Conference z-scores are also tracked but conference data requires a separate feed.