#1
Trevor LawrenceJAX vs CLE · individualized
Projected19.0
Floor / median / ceiling10.6 / 18.5 / 28.2
Position context98 percentile
Why 32.2 projected attempts; 23.4 net rush yards; 85% chance of 1+ relevant TD; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
PardonMe NFL
Week 1 Fantasy Intelligence
P10 football outcomes transformed with governed Half-PPR scoring. Rankings are position-specific.
32 ranked QB
Floor/ceiling = 10th/90th percentile
Scoring
Position
#2
Brock PurdySF vs LAR · individualized
Projected18.4
Floor / median / ceiling9.5 / 17.9 / 28.3
Position context95 percentile
Why 34.5 projected attempts; 16.4 net rush yards; 86% chance of 1+ relevant TD; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#3
Drake MayeNE vs SEA · individualized
Projected17.8
Floor / median / ceiling9.6 / 17.0 / 26.9
Position context92 percentile
Why 31.7 projected attempts; 22.5 net rush yards; 79% chance of 1+ relevant TD; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#4
Matthew StaffordLAR vs SF · individualized
Projected17.1
Floor / median / ceiling7.9 / 16.4 / 27.2
Position context89 percentile
Why 33.8 projected attempts; 2.1 net rush yards; 85% chance of 1+ relevant TD; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#5
Josh AllenBUF vs HOU · individualized
Projected16.3
Floor / median / ceiling8.3 / 15.6 / 25.1
Position context86 percentile
Why 28.7 projected attempts; 31.8 net rush yards; 73% chance of 1+ relevant TD; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#6
Dak PrescottDAL vs NYG · individualized
Projected16.2
Floor / median / ceiling8.2 / 15.6 / 24.9
Position context83 percentile
Why 33.6 projected attempts; 11.4 net rush yards; 77% chance of 1+ relevant TD; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#7
Baker MayfieldTB vs CIN · individualized
Projected16.0
Floor / median / ceiling7.7 / 15.3 / 25.2
Position context80 percentile
Why 32.4 projected attempts; 28.0 net rush yards; 74% chance of 1+ relevant TD; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#8
Justin HerbertLAC vs ARI · individualized
Projected15.8
Floor / median / ceiling7.7 / 15.3 / 24.5
Position context77 percentile
Why 29.4 projected attempts; 31.2 net rush yards; 72% chance of 1+ relevant TD; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#9
Daniel JonesIND vs BAL · individualized
Projected15.7
Floor / median / ceiling7.8 / 15.1 / 24.6
Position context73 percentile
Why 30.9 projected attempts; 13.4 net rush yards; 78% chance of 1+ relevant TD; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#10
Patrick MahomesKC vs DEN · individualized
Projected15.5
Floor / median / ceiling7.9 / 14.9 / 23.8
Position context70 percentile
Why 31.9 projected attempts; 25.0 net rush yards; 71% chance of 1+ relevant TD; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#11
Jayden DanielsWAS vs PHI · individualized
Projected15.5
Floor / median / ceiling7.7 / 14.7 / 24.4
Position context67 percentile
Why 25.8 projected attempts; 45.7 net rush yards; 68% chance of 1+ relevant TD; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#12
Jared GoffDET vs NO · individualized
Projected15.5
Floor / median / ceiling7.4 / 14.8 / 24.5
Position context64 percentile
Why 34.0 projected attempts; 5.6 net rush yards; 77% chance of 1+ relevant TD; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#13
Caleb WilliamsCHI vs CAR · individualized
Projected15.4
Floor / median / ceiling8.0 / 14.8 / 23.5
Position context61 percentile
Why 32.1 projected attempts; 17.0 net rush yards; 78% chance of 1+ relevant TD; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#14
Jaxson DartNYG vs DAL · individualized
Projected15.2
Floor / median / ceiling7.4 / 14.7 / 23.6
Position context58 percentile
Why 27.6 projected attempts; 38.6 net rush yards; 65% chance of 1+ relevant TD; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#15
Kyler MurrayMIN vs GB · individualized
Projected15.0
Floor / median / ceiling8.2 / 14.2 / 22.8
Position context55 percentile
Why 28.1 projected attempts; 36.2 net rush yards; 69% chance of 1+ relevant TD; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#16
Jacoby BrissettARI vs LAC · individualized
Projected15.0
Floor / median / ceiling7.2 / 14.1 / 24.1
Position context52 percentile
Why 33.5 projected attempts; 10.7 net rush yards; 76% chance of 1+ relevant TD; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#17
Jordan LoveGB vs MIN · individualized
Projected15.0
Floor / median / ceiling6.9 / 14.5 / 23.8
Position context48 percentile
Why 32.9 projected attempts; 11.2 net rush yards; 75% chance of 1+ relevant TD; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#18
Jalen HurtsPHI vs WAS · individualized
Projected14.9
Floor / median / ceiling7.6 / 14.2 / 23.3
Position context45 percentile
Why 29.9 projected attempts; 26.6 net rush yards; 70% chance of 1+ relevant TD; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#19
Malik WillisMIA vs LV · individualized
Projected14.8
Floor / median / ceiling6.7 / 14.1 / 23.8
Position context42 percentile
Why 25.6 projected attempts; 38.8 net rush yards; 60% chance of 1+ relevant TD; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#20
Deshaun WatsonCLE vs JAX · individualized
Projected14.6
Floor / median / ceiling7.9 / 14.0 / 22.2
Position context39 percentile
Why 33.3 projected attempts; 25.9 net rush yards; 70% chance of 1+ relevant TD; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#21
Joe BurrowCIN vs TB · individualized
Projected14.5
Floor / median / ceiling6.5 / 14.0 / 23.1
Position context36 percentile
Why 31.2 projected attempts; 5.0 net rush yards; 79% chance of 1+ relevant TD; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#22
Tyler ShoughNO vs DET · individualized
Projected14.2
Floor / median / ceiling7.0 / 13.7 / 22.2
Position context33 percentile
Why 28.9 projected attempts; 21.7 net rush yards; 66% chance of 1+ relevant TD; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#23
Lamar JacksonBAL vs IND · individualized
Projected13.8
Floor / median / ceiling6.8 / 13.1 / 21.8
Position context30 percentile
Why 27.4 projected attempts; 21.2 net rush yards; 66% chance of 1+ relevant TD; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#24
Geno SmithNYJ vs TEN · individualized
Projected13.6
Floor / median / ceiling6.0 / 12.8 / 22.3
Position context27 percentile
Why 31.3 projected attempts; 4.6 net rush yards; 75% chance of 1+ relevant TD; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#25
Bo NixDEN vs KC · individualized
Projected13.3
Floor / median / ceiling6.0 / 12.7 / 21.4
Position context23 percentile
Why 30.1 projected attempts; 18.7 net rush yards; 64% chance of 1+ relevant TD; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#26
Bryce YoungCAR vs CHI · individualized
Projected13.2
Floor / median / ceiling5.4 / 12.2 / 22.6
Position context20 percentile
Why 26.6 projected attempts; 17.2 net rush yards; 69% chance of 1+ relevant TD; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#27
Cam WardTEN vs NYJ · individualized
Projected13.1
Floor / median / ceiling5.9 / 12.5 / 21.2
Position context17 percentile
Why 30.4 projected attempts; 13.5 net rush yards; 70% chance of 1+ relevant TD; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#28
Michael Penix Jr.ATL vs PIT · individualized
Projected13.0
Floor / median / ceiling6.0 / 12.3 / 20.7
Position context14 percentile
Why 30.4 projected attempts; 6.1 net rush yards; 68% chance of 1+ relevant TD; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#29
Kirk CousinsLV vs MIA · individualized
Projected12.8
Floor / median / ceiling5.4 / 12.0 / 21.1
Position context11 percentile
Why 31.4 projected attempts; 0.6 net rush yards; 72% chance of 1+ relevant TD; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#30
C.J. StroudHOU vs BUF · individualized
Projected12.8
Floor / median / ceiling5.9 / 12.2 / 20.4
Position context8 percentile
Why 28.6 projected attempts; 9.5 net rush yards; 68% chance of 1+ relevant TD; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#31
Aaron RodgersPIT vs ATL · individualized
Projected12.7
Floor / median / ceiling5.7 / 12.2 / 20.4
Position context5 percentile
Why 32.1 projected attempts; 8.2 net rush yards; 66% chance of 1+ relevant TD; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#32
Sam DarnoldSEA vs NE · individualized
Projected12.4
Floor / median / ceiling5.6 / 11.7 / 19.8
Position context2 percentile
Why 29.4 projected attempts; 7.1 net rush yards; 67% chance of 1+ relevant TD; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
Fumbles lost and two-point conversions are explicit Unsupported in the forward layer. Scores use modeled components rather than silently treating those categories as zero. Historical F1 context informs comparison only; it does not determine ranks.