PardonMe NFL

Week 1 Fantasy Intelligence

P10 football outcomes transformed with governed Half-PPR scoring. Rankings are position-specific.

64 ranked TE
Floor/ceiling = 10th/90th percentile

Scoring

Position

#1
Trey McBrideARI vs LAC · individualized
Projected11.5
Floor / median / ceiling3.0 / 10.5 / 19.5
Position context99 percentile
Why 7.6 targets and 5.8 receptions; 36% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#2
George KittleSF vs LAR · individualized
Projected11.0
Floor / median / ceiling4.8 / 9.6 / 18.8
Position context98 percentile
Why 6.7 targets and 5.4 receptions; 33% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#3
Tucker KraftGB vs MIN · individualized
Projected10.2
Floor / median / ceiling3.9 / 8.0 / 19.7
Position context96 percentile
Why 5.8 targets and 4.1 receptions; 29% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#4
Harold Fannin Jr.CLE vs JAX · individualized
Projected10.2
Floor / median / ceiling3.1 / 9.2 / 18.4
Position context95 percentile
Why 7.4 targets and 5.0 receptions; 34% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#5
Sam LaPortaDET vs NO · individualized
Projected9.1
Floor / median / ceiling3.3 / 8.2 / 15.8
Position context93 percentile
Why 5.6 targets and 4.4 receptions; 26% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#6
Colston LovelandCHI vs CAR · individualized
Projected9.0
Floor / median / ceiling3.4 / 6.8 / 17.1
Position context91 percentile
Why 5.7 targets and 4.1 receptions; 28% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#7
Travis KelceKC vs DEN · individualized
Projected8.5
Floor / median / ceiling3.2 / 8.1 / 15.7
Position context90 percentile
Why 6.1 targets and 4.2 receptions; 25% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#8
Brock BowersLV vs MIA · individualized
Projected8.5
Floor / median / ceiling1.6 / 7.6 / 16.9
Position context88 percentile
Why 5.6 targets and 4.2 receptions; 28% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#9
Tyler WarrenIND vs BAL · individualized
Projected8.0
Floor / median / ceiling2.9 / 7.4 / 14.8
Position context87 percentile
Why 6.3 targets and 4.2 receptions; 26% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#10
Dallas GoedertPHI vs WAS · individualized
Projected7.8
Floor / median / ceiling1.5 / 6.0 / 16.5
Position context85 percentile
Why 5.5 targets and 3.8 receptions; 29% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#11
Pat FreiermuthPIT vs ATL · individualized
Projected7.6
Floor / median / ceiling3.4 / 6.8 / 14.5
Position context84 percentile
Why 4.7 targets and 3.5 receptions; 24% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#12
Brenton StrangeJAX vs CLE · individualized
Projected7.5
Floor / median / ceiling1.6 / 6.6 / 14.2
Position context82 percentile
Why 4.8 targets and 3.6 receptions; 22% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#13
Chig OkonkwoWAS vs PHI · individualized
Projected7.4
Floor / median / ceiling3.0 / 6.0 / 13.5
Position context80 percentile
Why 5.5 targets and 3.9 receptions; 23% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#14
Dalton SchultzHOU vs BUF · individualized
Projected7.4
Floor / median / ceiling1.5 / 5.9 / 14.9
Position context79 percentile
Why 5.2 targets and 4.0 receptions; 21% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#15
Dalton KincaidBUF vs HOU · individualized
Projected7.3
Floor / median / ceiling1.9 / 5.6 / 13.5
Position context77 percentile
Why 4.0 targets and 3.1 receptions; 21% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#16
Hunter HenryNE vs SEA · individualized
Projected7.3
Floor / median / ceiling1.7 / 6.7 / 14.4
Position context76 percentile
Why 4.7 targets and 3.4 receptions; 23% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#17
Theo JohnsonNYG vs DAL · individualized
Projected7.2
Floor / median / ceiling1.7 / 6.8 / 13.5
Position context74 percentile
Why 5.1 targets and 3.2 receptions; 26% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#18
Kyle Pitts Sr.ATL vs PIT · individualized
Projected7.1
Floor / median / ceiling0.0 / 6.3 / 14.2
Position context73 percentile
Why 5.0 targets and 3.6 receptions; 21% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#19
Juwan JohnsonNO vs DET · individualized
Projected7.0
Floor / median / ceiling1.7 / 5.2 / 13.8
Position context71 percentile
Why 4.3 targets and 3.4 receptions; 19% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#20
AJ BarnerSEA vs NE · individualized
Projected6.9
Floor / median / ceiling3.0 / 5.9 / 13.4
Position context70 percentile
Why 4.8 targets and 3.6 receptions; 23% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#21
Dawson KnoxBUF vs HOU · individualized
Projected6.9
Floor / median / ceiling1.7 / 5.0 / 12.7
Position context68 percentile
Why 4.3 targets and 3.2 receptions; 22% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#22
Colby ParkinsonLAR vs SF · individualized
Projected6.8
Floor / median / ceiling1.5 / 6.1 / 13.6
Position context66 percentile
Why 4.3 targets and 3.3 receptions; 26% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#23
Greg DulcichMIA vs LV · individualized
Projected6.7
Floor / median / ceiling1.6 / 4.9 / 12.5
Position context65 percentile
Why 4.7 targets and 3.3 receptions; 20% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#24
Mark AndrewsBAL vs IND · individualized
Projected6.2
Floor / median / ceiling2.8 / 5.7 / 11.7
Position context63 percentile
Why 5.0 targets and 3.2 receptions; 24% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#25
T.J. HockensonMIN vs GB · individualized
Projected6.0
Floor / median / ceiling1.4 / 5.6 / 11.6
Position context62 percentile
Why 4.3 targets and 3.4 receptions; 20% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#26
Oronde GadsdenLAC vs ARI · individualized
Projected6.0
Floor / median / ceiling0.0 / 5.6 / 13.0
Position context60 percentile
Why 3.7 targets and 2.6 receptions; 17% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#27
Jake FergusonDAL vs NYG · individualized
Projected5.9
Floor / median / ceiling1.3 / 5.4 / 12.7
Position context59 percentile
Why 4.4 targets and 3.3 receptions; 23% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#28
Daniel BellingerTEN vs NYJ · individualized
Projected5.6
Floor / median / ceiling1.8 / 3.7 / 11.5
Position context57 percentile
Why 3.4 targets and 2.4 receptions; 17% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#29
Michael MayerLV vs MIA · individualized
Projected5.3
Floor / median / ceiling1.5 / 4.4 / 11.8
Position context55 percentile
Why 4.1 targets and 2.9 receptions; 17% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#30
Cole KmetCHI vs CAR · individualized
Projected5.2
Floor / median / ceiling1.5 / 4.5 / 10.5
Position context54 percentile
Why 3.8 targets and 2.7 receptions; 17% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#31
Gunnar HelmTEN vs NYJ · individualized
Projected5.2
Floor / median / ceiling1.3 / 4.0 / 10.7
Position context52 percentile
Why 3.9 targets and 3.0 receptions; 18% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#32
Darnell WashingtonPIT vs ATL · individualized
Projected5.2
Floor / median / ceiling1.6 / 4.9 / 10.9
Position context51 percentile
Why 3.5 targets and 2.6 receptions; 15% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#33
Isaiah LikelyNYG vs DAL · individualized
Projected5.1
Floor / median / ceiling1.6 / 4.9 / 9.7
Position context49 percentile
Why 3.5 targets and 2.5 receptions; 15% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#34
Nate BoerkircherJAX vs CLE · fallback
Projected5.0
Floor / median / ceiling0.0 / 3.1 / 12.1
Position context48 percentile
Why 3.6 targets and 2.6 receptions; 17% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; thin-history fallback widens uncertainty; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#35
Eli RaridonNE vs SEA · fallback
Projected5.0
Floor / median / ceiling1.5 / 3.1 / 12.1
Position context46 percentile
Why 3.6 targets and 2.6 receptions; 17% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; thin-history fallback widens uncertainty; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#36
Will KacmarekMIA vs LV · fallback
Projected5.0
Floor / median / ceiling0.0 / 3.1 / 12.1
Position context45 percentile
Why 3.6 targets and 2.6 receptions; 16% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; thin-history fallback widens uncertainty; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#37
Cade OttonTB vs CIN · individualized
Projected4.9
Floor / median / ceiling0.0 / 3.0 / 12.1
Position context43 percentile
Why 3.5 targets and 2.6 receptions; 14% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#38
Mason TaylorNYJ vs TEN · individualized
Projected4.9
Floor / median / ceiling0.0 / 4.1 / 11.4
Position context41 percentile
Why 4.1 targets and 2.8 receptions; 16% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#39
Mike GesickiCIN vs TB · individualized
Projected4.8
Floor / median / ceiling1.6 / 3.2 / 10.7
Position context40 percentile
Why 3.5 targets and 2.4 receptions; 17% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#40
Davis AllenLAR vs SF · individualized
Projected4.8
Floor / median / ceiling1.4 / 4.3 / 10.3
Position context38 percentile
Why 3.6 targets and 2.6 receptions; 16% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#41
Jake TongesSF vs LAR · individualized
Projected4.8
Floor / median / ceiling0.0 / 2.8 / 11.6
Position context37 percentile
Why 3.5 targets and 2.5 receptions; 18% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#42
Josh OliverMIN vs GB · individualized
Projected4.6
Floor / median / ceiling1.5 / 3.1 / 9.1
Position context35 percentile
Why 3.0 targets and 2.3 receptions; 18% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#43
Jeremy RuckertNYJ vs TEN · individualized
Projected4.6
Floor / median / ceiling1.4 / 4.1 / 10.1
Position context34 percentile
Why 3.4 targets and 2.6 receptions; 16% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#44
Brock WrightDET vs NO · individualized
Projected4.6
Floor / median / ceiling1.4 / 2.8 / 10.1
Position context32 percentile
Why 3.5 targets and 2.4 receptions; 18% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#45
Foster MoreauHOU vs BUF · individualized
Projected4.5
Floor / median / ceiling1.6 / 3.2 / 9.2
Position context30 percentile
Why 3.0 targets and 2.2 receptions; 15% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#46
Mitchell EvansCAR vs CHI · individualized
Projected4.5
Floor / median / ceiling1.4 / 2.9 / 8.9
Position context29 percentile
Why 3.2 targets and 2.4 receptions; 16% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#47
Evan EngramDEN vs KC · individualized
Projected4.5
Floor / median / ceiling1.5 / 3.0 / 10.3
Position context27 percentile
Why 3.6 targets and 2.4 receptions; 14% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#48
Noah FantNO vs DET · individualized
Projected4.4
Floor / median / ceiling1.4 / 2.8 / 10.2
Position context26 percentile
Why 3.1 targets and 2.5 receptions; 14% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#49
Elijah HigginsARI vs LAC · individualized
Projected4.1
Floor / median / ceiling1.5 / 3.0 / 9.0
Position context24 percentile
Why 2.7 targets and 2.2 receptions; 12% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#50
Mo Alie-CoxIND vs BAL · individualized
Projected3.8
Floor / median / ceiling1.5 / 2.9 / 8.9
Position context23 percentile
Why 3.0 targets and 2.0 receptions; 15% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#51
Tommy TrembleCAR vs CHI · individualized
Projected3.7
Floor / median / ceiling0.0 / 1.5 / 9.1
Position context21 percentile
Why 2.8 targets and 1.9 receptions; 13% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#52
Johnny MundtPHI vs WAS · individualized
Projected3.5
Floor / median / ceiling0.0 / 3.2 / 7.6
Position context20 percentile
Why 2.9 targets and 1.7 receptions; 13% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#53
Noah GrayKC vs DEN · individualized
Projected3.5
Floor / median / ceiling0.0 / 2.9 / 8.6
Position context18 percentile
Why 3.1 targets and 1.8 receptions; 13% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#54
Adam TrautmanDEN vs KC · individualized
Projected3.5
Floor / median / ceiling1.5 / 3.0 / 7.5
Position context16 percentile
Why 2.4 targets and 1.8 receptions; 11% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#55
Charlie WoernerATL vs PIT · individualized
Projected3.4
Floor / median / ceiling1.3 / 2.6 / 7.7
Position context15 percentile
Why 2.8 targets and 2.0 receptions; 13% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#56
Payne DurhamTB vs CIN · individualized
Projected3.1
Floor / median / ceiling0.0 / 1.6 / 7.9
Position context13 percentile
Why 2.1 targets and 1.5 receptions; 10% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#57
Josh WhyleGB vs MIN · individualized
Projected3.0
Floor / median / ceiling0.0 / 1.3 / 8.1
Position context12 percentile
Why 2.3 targets and 1.7 receptions; 11% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#58
Drew SampleCIN vs TB · individualized
Projected2.9
Floor / median / ceiling1.3 / 2.5 / 7.3
Position context10 percentile
Why 2.2 targets and 1.7 receptions; 11% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#59
Brevyn Spann-FordDAL vs NYG · individualized
Projected2.7
Floor / median / ceiling0.0 / 1.5 / 7.5
Position context9 percentile
Why 2.0 targets and 1.4 receptions; 10% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#60
Eric SaubertSEA vs NE · individualized
Projected2.7
Floor / median / ceiling0.0 / 1.4 / 7.1
Position context7 percentile
Why 2.0 targets and 1.4 receptions; 10% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#61
Charlie KolarLAC vs ARI · individualized
Projected2.5
Floor / median / ceiling0.0 / 1.7 / 6.0
Position context5 percentile
Why 1.7 targets and 1.2 receptions; 8% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#62
John BatesWAS vs PHI · individualized
Projected2.5
Floor / median / ceiling0.0 / 1.5 / 6.0
Position context4 percentile
Why 1.9 targets and 1.2 receptions; 9% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#63
Durham SmytheBAL vs IND · individualized
Projected2.0
Floor / median / ceiling0.0 / 1.3 / 5.1
Position context2 percentile
Why 1.7 targets and 1.2 receptions; 8% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#64
Blake WhiteheartCLE vs JAX · individualized
Projected1.9
Floor / median / ceiling0.0 / 1.4 / 5.7
Position context1 percentile
Why 1.6 targets and 1.0 receptions; 8% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab

Fumbles lost and two-point conversions are explicit Unsupported in the forward layer. Scores use modeled components rather than silently treating those categories as zero. Historical F1 context informs comparison only; it does not determine ranks.