PardonMe NFL

Week 1 Fantasy Intelligence

P10 football outcomes transformed with governed Half-PPR scoring. Rankings are position-specific.

72 ranked WR
Floor/ceiling = 10th/90th percentile

Scoring

Position

#1
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA vs LV · individualized
Projected18.5
Floor / median / ceiling8.7 / 18.0 / 29.1
Position context99 percentile
Why 10.1 targets and 7.6 receptions; 52% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#2
Puka NacuaLAR vs ARI · individualized
Projected16.9
Floor / median / ceiling6.0 / 15.2 / 30.3
Position context98 percentile
Why 9.9 targets and 7.6 receptions; 45% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#3
CeeDee LambDAL vs SF · individualized
Projected15.3
Floor / median / ceiling3.0 / 13.7 / 28.4
Position context96 percentile
Why 10.0 targets and 6.9 receptions; 43% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#4
Christian WatsonGB vs MIN · individualized
Projected15.3
Floor / median / ceiling6.7 / 15.0 / 25.2
Position context95 percentile
Why 8.4 targets and 5.4 receptions; 45% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#5
Amon-Ra St. BrownDET vs NE · individualized
Projected14.8
Floor / median / ceiling6.1 / 14.2 / 24.1
Position context93 percentile
Why 9.8 targets and 7.1 receptions; 41% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#6
Zay FlowersBAL vs LAC · individualized
Projected14.8
Floor / median / ceiling6.6 / 14.5 / 24.4
Position context92 percentile
Why 7.9 targets and 5.8 receptions; 41% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#7
Ja'Marr ChaseCIN vs PIT · individualized
Projected14.2
Floor / median / ceiling3.9 / 13.8 / 25.8
Position context90 percentile
Why 8.3 targets and 6.2 receptions; 45% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#8
Tee HigginsCIN vs PIT · individualized
Projected14.2
Floor / median / ceiling4.3 / 12.3 / 26.2
Position context89 percentile
Why 7.4 targets and 5.3 receptions; 45% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#9
Tetairoa McMillanCAR vs NO · individualized
Projected12.7
Floor / median / ceiling5.8 / 11.5 / 21.6
Position context87 percentile
Why 8.7 targets and 5.5 receptions; 33% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#9
Malik NabersNYG vs WAS · individualized
Projected12.8
Floor / median / ceiling4.0 / 11.2 / 24.2
Position context89 percentile
Why 8.9 targets and 5.9 receptions; 32% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#10
Chris OlaveNO vs CAR · individualized
Projected12.3
Floor / median / ceiling4.1 / 11.9 / 21.6
Position context86 percentile
Why 7.8 targets and 5.3 receptions; 34% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#11
Omar Cooper Jr.NYJ vs BUF · fallback
Projected12.1
Floor / median / ceiling2.8 / 10.5 / 22.3
Position context84 percentile
Why 6.9 targets and 5.0 receptions; 31% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; thin-history fallback widens uncertainty; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#12
Rashee RiceKC vs ATL · individualized
Projected12.0
Floor / median / ceiling3.7 / 11.4 / 20.3
Position context83 percentile
Why 7.6 targets and 5.7 receptions; 32% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#13
Drake LondonATL vs KC · individualized
Projected11.8
Floor / median / ceiling4.4 / 10.8 / 20.3
Position context81 percentile
Why 8.2 targets and 5.0 receptions; 26% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#14
Matthew GoldenGB vs MIN · individualized
Projected11.6
Floor / median / ceiling2.3 / 10.6 / 21.8
Position context80 percentile
Why 7.8 targets and 4.7 receptions; 34% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#15
Justin JeffersonMIN vs GB · individualized
Projected11.5
Floor / median / ceiling4.4 / 10.8 / 19.0
Position context78 percentile
Why 8.3 targets and 5.3 receptions; 33% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#16
Jalen CokerCAR vs NO · individualized
Projected10.7
Floor / median / ceiling3.5 / 8.9 / 19.5
Position context77 percentile
Why 7.2 targets and 4.6 receptions; 35% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#17
Nico CollinsHOU vs CLE · individualized
Projected10.7
Floor / median / ceiling4.3 / 10.3 / 19.3
Position context75 percentile
Why 6.3 targets and 4.0 receptions; 30% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#18
Jameson WilliamsDET vs NE · individualized
Projected10.7
Floor / median / ceiling2.4 / 10.3 / 19.2
Position context73 percentile
Why 6.3 targets and 3.9 receptions; 34% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#18
Stefon DiggsWAS vs NYG · individualized
Projected11.2
Floor / median / ceiling5.2 / 10.3 / 19.6
Position context77 percentile
Why 7.1 targets and 5.0 receptions; 36% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#19
Garrett WilsonNYJ vs BUF · individualized
Projected10.4
Floor / median / ceiling3.6 / 9.2 / 19.0
Position context72 percentile
Why 7.4 targets and 4.7 receptions; 31% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#20
Michael WilsonARI vs LAR · individualized
Projected10.2
Floor / median / ceiling2.1 / 9.0 / 19.7
Position context70 percentile
Why 7.6 targets and 4.6 receptions; 30% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#21
George PickensDAL vs SF · individualized
Projected10.1
Floor / median / ceiling3.4 / 9.6 / 19.4
Position context69 percentile
Why 6.5 targets and 4.3 receptions; 26% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#22
DJ MooreBUF vs NYJ · individualized
Projected10.0
Floor / median / ceiling3.8 / 9.5 / 17.7
Position context67 percentile
Why 6.2 targets and 3.8 receptions; 38% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#23
Denzel BostonCLE vs HOU · individualized
Projected9.6
Floor / median / ceiling2.8 / 8.4 / 16.8
Position context66 percentile
Why 6.7 targets and 3.8 receptions; 29% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#23
Terry McLaurinWAS vs NYG · individualized
Projected10.3
Floor / median / ceiling3.5 / 8.1 / 19.9
Position context70 percentile
Why 5.5 targets and 4.0 receptions; 29% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#24
Alec PierceIND vs MIA · individualized
Projected9.4
Floor / median / ceiling0.0 / 8.4 / 19.4
Position context64 percentile
Why 4.4 targets and 2.9 receptions; 30% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#25
Khalil ShakirBUF vs NYJ · individualized
Projected9.1
Floor / median / ceiling3.5 / 8.5 / 15.3
Position context63 percentile
Why 5.8 targets and 4.5 receptions; 22% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#26
Caleb DouglasMIA vs IND · individualized
Projected9.1
Floor / median / ceiling2.4 / 8.2 / 16.6
Position context61 percentile
Why 5.2 targets and 3.7 receptions; 26% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#27
Tre TuckerLV vs SEA · individualized
Projected8.9
Floor / median / ceiling1.9 / 7.9 / 16.0
Position context60 percentile
Why 5.8 targets and 3.6 receptions; 27% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#28
Wan'Dale RobinsonTEN vs JAX · individualized
Projected8.8
Floor / median / ceiling1.7 / 7.6 / 16.2
Position context58 percentile
Why 7.4 targets and 4.9 receptions; 28% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#29
DK MetcalfPIT vs CIN · individualized
Projected8.7
Floor / median / ceiling2.3 / 7.7 / 16.7
Position context57 percentile
Why 6.7 targets and 3.9 receptions; 24% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#30
Adonai MitchellNYJ vs BUF · individualized
Projected8.6
Floor / median / ceiling2.2 / 7.9 / 15.9
Position context55 percentile
Why 7.3 targets and 3.5 receptions; 27% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#31
DeMario DouglasNE vs DET · individualized
Projected8.5
Floor / median / ceiling2.4 / 7.5 / 15.8
Position context54 percentile
Why 5.4 targets and 3.6 receptions; 27% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#32
Keon ColemanBUF vs NYJ · individualized
Projected8.3
Floor / median / ceiling1.8 / 7.2 / 15.6
Position context52 percentile
Why 5.1 targets and 3.3 receptions; 31% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#33
Roman WilsonPIT vs CIN · individualized
Projected8.2
Floor / median / ceiling1.8 / 7.2 / 15.2
Position context51 percentile
Why 5.1 targets and 3.2 receptions; 30% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#34
Keenan AllenIND vs MIA · individualized
Projected8.1
Floor / median / ceiling3.0 / 7.3 / 14.7
Position context49 percentile
Why 6.6 targets and 4.7 receptions; 21% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#35
Jakobi MeyersJAX vs TEN · individualized
Projected8.1
Floor / median / ceiling1.9 / 7.2 / 14.9
Position context48 percentile
Why 5.5 targets and 3.8 receptions; 21% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#36
Romeo DoubsNE vs DET · individualized
Projected8.0
Floor / median / ceiling1.7 / 6.8 / 15.9
Position context46 percentile
Why 3.6 targets and 2.7 receptions; 29% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#37
Mack HollinsNE vs DET · individualized
Projected7.8
Floor / median / ceiling1.8 / 7.1 / 14.9
Position context45 percentile
Why 5.7 targets and 3.7 receptions; 19% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#38
Xavier WorthyKC vs ATL · individualized
Projected7.8
Floor / median / ceiling3.3 / 6.5 / 14.1
Position context43 percentile
Why 6.1 targets and 4.0 receptions; 21% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#39
Josh DownsIND vs MIA · individualized
Projected7.6
Floor / median / ceiling1.9 / 6.9 / 13.7
Position context42 percentile
Why 6.2 targets and 3.8 receptions; 18% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#40
Jordan AddisonMIN vs GB · individualized
Projected7.5
Floor / median / ceiling2.0 / 6.2 / 14.2
Position context40 percentile
Why 5.9 targets and 3.0 receptions; 20% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#41
Kendrick BourneARI vs LAR · individualized
Projected7.4
Floor / median / ceiling3.1 / 6.3 / 13.9
Position context39 percentile
Why 5.5 targets and 3.9 receptions; 18% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#42
Demarcus RobinsonSF vs DAL · individualized
Projected7.3
Floor / median / ceiling3.5 / 6.0 / 13.0
Position context37 percentile
Why 4.5 targets and 3.2 receptions; 22% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#43
Tre' HarrisLAC vs BAL · individualized
Projected7.3
Floor / median / ceiling2.0 / 7.3 / 13.3
Position context36 percentile
Why 5.9 targets and 3.4 receptions; 16% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#44
Jahan DotsonATL vs KC · individualized
Projected7.1
Floor / median / ceiling2.2 / 6.5 / 13.0
Position context34 percentile
Why 5.2 targets and 2.6 receptions; 21% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#44
Malachi FieldsNYG vs WAS · individualized
Projected7.7
Floor / median / ceiling2.0 / 5.9 / 13.8
Position context42 percentile
Why 5.8 targets and 3.2 receptions; 21% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#45
De'Zhaun StriblingSF vs DAL · fallback
Projected6.8
Floor / median / ceiling1.8 / 5.3 / 14.8
Position context33 percentile
Why 4.8 targets and 3.0 receptions; 20% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; thin-history fallback widens uncertainty; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#46
CJ WilliamsJAX vs TEN · fallback
Projected6.7
Floor / median / ceiling1.8 / 5.3 / 14.8
Position context31 percentile
Why 4.7 targets and 3.0 receptions; 20% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; thin-history fallback widens uncertainty; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#47
CJ DanielsLAR vs ARI · fallback
Projected6.7
Floor / median / ceiling1.8 / 5.3 / 14.8
Position context30 percentile
Why 4.8 targets and 3.0 receptions; 20% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; thin-history fallback widens uncertainty; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#48
Quentin JohnstonLAC vs BAL · individualized
Projected6.5
Floor / median / ceiling2.1 / 6.0 / 12.4
Position context28 percentile
Why 4.7 targets and 2.3 receptions; 21% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#49
Xavier HutchinsonHOU vs CLE · individualized
Projected6.3
Floor / median / ceiling1.8 / 5.3 / 12.9
Position context27 percentile
Why 5.4 targets and 2.9 receptions; 19% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#50
Isaac TeSlaaDET vs NE · individualized
Projected6.3
Floor / median / ceiling1.8 / 5.4 / 13.9
Position context25 percentile
Why 4.2 targets and 2.4 receptions; 21% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#51
Ladd McConkeyLAC vs BAL · individualized
Projected6.3
Floor / median / ceiling1.8 / 5.5 / 12.9
Position context23 percentile
Why 4.8 targets and 2.6 receptions; 20% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#52
Rashod BatemanBAL vs LAC · individualized
Projected6.3
Floor / median / ceiling1.9 / 5.2 / 13.2
Position context22 percentile
Why 4.2 targets and 2.6 receptions; 18% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#53
Jalen NailorLV vs SEA · individualized
Projected6.0
Floor / median / ceiling1.6 / 4.9 / 11.3
Position context20 percentile
Why 4.8 targets and 2.7 receptions; 23% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#54
Chris BellMIA vs IND · individualized
Projected5.3
Floor / median / ceiling1.7 / 3.6 / 11.2
Position context19 percentile
Why 4.4 targets and 2.5 receptions; 16% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#55
Michael Pittman Jr.PIT vs CIN · individualized
Projected5.3
Floor / median / ceiling0.0 / 3.9 / 12.0
Position context17 percentile
Why 4.6 targets and 2.9 receptions; 14% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#55
Treylon BurksWAS vs NYG · individualized
Projected6.5
Floor / median / ceiling2.1 / 6.1 / 12.2
Position context27 percentile
Why 4.5 targets and 2.4 receptions; 24% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#56
Jerry JeudyCLE vs HOU · individualized
Projected4.7
Floor / median / ceiling1.4 / 4.6 / 9.5
Position context16 percentile
Why 4.2 targets and 2.5 receptions; 12% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#57
Calvin RidleyTEN vs JAX · individualized
Projected4.6
Floor / median / ceiling0.0 / 3.7 / 10.9
Position context14 percentile
Why 3.3 targets and 1.7 receptions; 11% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#58
Andrei IosivasCIN vs PIT · individualized
Projected4.4
Floor / median / ceiling0.0 / 3.1 / 9.9
Position context13 percentile
Why 3.3 targets and 2.0 receptions; 15% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#59
Jared WayneHOU vs CLE · fallback
Projected4.3
Floor / median / ceiling0.0 / 2.8 / 10.6
Position context11 percentile
Why 2.9 targets and 1.8 receptions; 14% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; thin-history fallback widens uncertainty; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#60
Andrew ArmstrongKC vs ATL · fallback
Projected3.9
Floor / median / ceiling0.0 / 2.7 / 9.8
Position context10 percentile
Why 2.8 targets and 1.7 receptions; 13% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; thin-history fallback widens uncertainty; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#61
J. Michael SturdivantGB vs MIN · fallback
Projected3.1
Floor / median / ceiling0.0 / 1.2 / 9.1
Position context8 percentile
Why 2.2 targets and 1.4 receptions; 11% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; thin-history fallback widens uncertainty; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#62
Xavier LegetteCAR vs NO · individualized
Projected3.0
Floor / median / ceiling0.0 / 1.8 / 7.8
Position context7 percentile
Why 2.2 targets and 1.2 receptions; 10% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#63
Tylan WallaceCLE vs HOU · individualized
Projected2.9
Floor / median / ceiling0.0 / 2.4 / 7.4
Position context5 percentile
Why 1.6 targets and 1.2 receptions; 11% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#64
Alex BachmanLAR vs ARI · fallback
Projected2.9
Floor / median / ceiling0.0 / 0.0 / 9.3
Position context4 percentile
Why 1.5 targets and 1.2 receptions; 11% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; thin-history fallback widens uncertainty; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#65
Olamide ZaccheausATL vs KC · individualized
Projected2.7
Floor / median / ceiling0.0 / 1.3 / 7.3
Position context2 percentile
Why 2.7 targets and 1.4 receptions; 12% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#66
Irv CharlesSEA vs LV · fallback
Projected2.4
Floor / median / ceiling0.0 / 0.0 / 8.8
Position context1 percentile
Why 1.4 targets and 1.0 receptions; 8% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; thin-history fallback widens uncertainty; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
#68
Darnell MooneyNYG vs WAS · individualized
Projected4.2
Floor / median / ceiling0.0 / 3.3 / 9.3
Position context10 percentile
Why 3.8 targets and 2.0 receptions; 12% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown. Matchup Lab
—
Jalen BrooksARI vs LAR · suppressed
SuppressedNot projected as zero
Why Fantasy projection suppressed: unresolved game day evidence conflict. Matchup Lab
—
Devontez WalkerBAL vs LAC · suppressed
SuppressedNot projected as zero
Why Fantasy projection suppressed: unresolved game day evidence conflict. Matchup Lab
—
Ryan FlournoyDAL vs SF · suppressed
SuppressedNot projected as zero
Why Fantasy projection suppressed: unresolved game day evidence conflict. Matchup Lab
—
Brian Thomas Jr.JAX vs TEN · suppressed
SuppressedNot projected as zero
Why Fantasy projection suppressed: unresolved game day evidence conflict. Matchup Lab
—
Jalen TolbertMIA vs IND · suppressed
SuppressedNot projected as zero
Why Fantasy projection suppressed: unresolved game day evidence conflict. Matchup Lab
—
Jauan JenningsMIN vs GB · suppressed
SuppressedNot projected as zero
Why Fantasy projection suppressed: supported current game unavailable. Matchup Lab
—
Devaughn VeleNO vs CAR · suppressed
SuppressedNot projected as zero
Why Fantasy projection suppressed: unresolved game day evidence conflict. Matchup Lab
—
Mike EvansSF vs DAL · suppressed
SuppressedNot projected as zero
Why Fantasy projection suppressed: supported current game unavailable. Matchup Lab
—
Cooper KuppSEA vs LV · suppressed
SuppressedNot projected as zero
Why Fantasy projection suppressed: unresolved game day evidence conflict. Matchup Lab
—
Carnell TateTEN vs JAX · suppressed
SuppressedNot projected as zero
Why Fantasy projection suppressed: supported current game unavailable. Matchup Lab

Fumbles lost and two-point conversions are explicit Unsupported in the forward layer. Scores use modeled components rather than silently treating those categories as zero. Historical F1 context informs comparison only; it does not determine ranks.