PardonMe NFL Research

Week 1 Touchdown Connections

Correlation-aware touchdown research from independent P10 marginals and historically validated football relationships.

80 comparisons

P12 probabilities · no sportsbook input

Market

Position

DEN at KC · Same Team Rb Rb

J.K. Dobbins + RJ Harvey

J.K. Dobbins anytime TD + RJ Harvey anytime TD

P12 both events13.6%

If independent15.4%

At least one65.7%

Exactly one52.1%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

LAR at ARI · Same Team Rb Rb

Blake Corum + Kyren Williams

Blake Corum anytime TD + Kyren Williams anytime TD

P12 both events12.8%

If independent14.7%

At least one63.8%

Exactly one51.0%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

LV at NYJ · Same Team Rb Rb

Braelon Allen + Breece Hall

Braelon Allen anytime TD + Breece Hall anytime TD

P12 both events12.7%

If independent14.6%

At least one63.7%

Exactly one51.0%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

LAR at WAS · Same Team Rb Rb

Blake Corum + Kyren Williams

Blake Corum anytime TD + Kyren Williams anytime TD

P12 both events12.7%

If independent14.6%

At least one63.8%

Exactly one51.1%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

NYG at WAS · Same Team Rb Rb

Devin Singletary + Cam Skattebo

Devin Singletary anytime TD + Cam Skattebo anytime TD

P12 both events12.8%

If independent14.7%

At least one64.1%

Exactly one51.3%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

NE at BUF · Same Team Rb Rb

TreVeyon Henderson + Rhamondre Stevenson

TreVeyon Henderson anytime TD + Rhamondre Stevenson anytime TD

P12 both events12.3%

If independent14.1%

At least one62.9%

Exactly one50.6%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

MIA at IND · Same Team Rb Rb

De'Von Achane + Ollie Gordon II

De'Von Achane anytime TD + Ollie Gordon II anytime TD

P12 both events13.0%

If independent14.8%

At least one65.0%

Exactly one52.0%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

NYJ at KC · Same Team Rb Rb

Braelon Allen + Breece Hall

Braelon Allen anytime TD + Breece Hall anytime TD

P12 both events12.1%

If independent13.9%

At least one62.5%

Exactly one50.4%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

DAL at IND · Same Team Rb Rb

DJ Giddens + Jonathan Taylor

DJ Giddens anytime TD + Jonathan Taylor anytime TD

P12 both events13.5%

If independent15.4%

At least one66.7%

Exactly one53.1%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

MIA at NYJ · Same Team Rb Rb

Braelon Allen + Breece Hall

Braelon Allen anytime TD + Breece Hall anytime TD

P12 both events11.8%

If independent13.6%

At least one62.1%

Exactly one50.2%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

DET at MIA · Same Team Rb Rb

De'Von Achane + Ollie Gordon II

De'Von Achane anytime TD + Ollie Gordon II anytime TD

P12 both events12.2%

If independent14.0%

At least one63.4%

Exactly one51.2%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

NE at MIA · Same Team Rb Rb

De'Von Achane + Ollie Gordon II

De'Von Achane anytime TD + Ollie Gordon II anytime TD

P12 both events11.9%

If independent13.7%

At least one62.5%

Exactly one50.6%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

BUF at NYJ · Same Team Rb Rb

Braelon Allen + Breece Hall

Braelon Allen anytime TD + Breece Hall anytime TD

P12 both events11.6%

If independent13.4%

At least one61.7%

Exactly one50.0%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

LAR at ARI · Same Team Rb Rb

Tyler Allgeier + Jeremiyah Love

Tyler Allgeier anytime TD + Jeremiyah Love anytime TD

P12 both events11.5%

If independent13.3%

At least one61.4%

Exactly one49.9%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

MIA at IND · Same Team Rb Rb

DJ Giddens + Jonathan Taylor

DJ Giddens anytime TD + Jonathan Taylor anytime TD

P12 both events12.1%

If independent13.9%

At least one63.3%

Exactly one51.3%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

PIT at NE · Same Team Rb Rb

TreVeyon Henderson + Rhamondre Stevenson

TreVeyon Henderson anytime TD + Rhamondre Stevenson anytime TD

P12 both events11.4%

If independent13.2%

At least one61.3%

Exactly one49.9%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

SF at LAR · Same Team Rb Rb

Blake Corum + Kyren Williams

Blake Corum anytime TD + Kyren Williams anytime TD

P12 both events11.8%

If independent13.6%

At least one62.7%

Exactly one50.8%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

CHI at ATL · Same Team Rb Rb

Kyle Monangai + D'Andre Swift

Kyle Monangai anytime TD + D'Andre Swift anytime TD

P12 both events11.6%

If independent13.3%

At least one62.1%

Exactly one50.5%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

DAL at NYG · Same Team Rb Rb

Devin Singletary + Cam Skattebo

Devin Singletary anytime TD + Cam Skattebo anytime TD

P12 both events11.9%

If independent13.7%

At least one63.3%

Exactly one51.3%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

LV at NE · Same Team Rb Rb

TreVeyon Henderson + Rhamondre Stevenson

TreVeyon Henderson anytime TD + Rhamondre Stevenson anytime TD

P12 both events11.1%

If independent12.8%

At least one60.6%

Exactly one49.5%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

NYJ at NE · Same Team Rb Rb

TreVeyon Henderson + Rhamondre Stevenson

TreVeyon Henderson anytime TD + Rhamondre Stevenson anytime TD

P12 both events11.1%

If independent12.8%

At least one60.6%

Exactly one49.5%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

LAC at LAR · Same Team Rb Rb

Blake Corum + Kyren Williams

Blake Corum anytime TD + Kyren Williams anytime TD

P12 both events11.2%

If independent12.9%

At least one61.1%

Exactly one49.9%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

NO at NYG · Same Team Rb Rb

Devin Singletary + Cam Skattebo

Devin Singletary anytime TD + Cam Skattebo anytime TD

P12 both events11.1%

If independent12.9%

At least one61.0%

Exactly one49.8%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

MIA at LV · Same Team Rb Rb

Ashton Jeanty + Mike Washington Jr.

Ashton Jeanty anytime TD + Mike Washington Jr. anytime TD

P12 both events11.1%

If independent12.9%

At least one61.0%

Exactly one49.9%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

SF at LAR · Same Team Rb Rb

Jordan James + Christian McCaffrey

Jordan James anytime TD + Christian McCaffrey anytime TD

P12 both events13.4%

If independent15.1%

At least one67.6%

Exactly one54.3%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

NE at SEA · Same Team Rb Rb

TreVeyon Henderson + Rhamondre Stevenson

TreVeyon Henderson anytime TD + Rhamondre Stevenson anytime TD

P12 both events10.9%

If independent12.6%

At least one60.1%

Exactly one49.3%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

TB at CHI · Same Team Rb Rb

Kyle Monangai + D'Andre Swift

Kyle Monangai anytime TD + D'Andre Swift anytime TD

P12 both events11.9%

If independent13.6%

At least one63.7%

Exactly one51.8%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

LAR at LV · Same Team Rb Rb

Blake Corum + Kyren Williams

Blake Corum anytime TD + Kyren Williams anytime TD

P12 both events11.5%

If independent13.2%

At least one62.5%

Exactly one51.0%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

ARI at LAR · Same Team Rb Rb

Blake Corum + Kyren Williams

Blake Corum anytime TD + Kyren Williams anytime TD

P12 both events11.6%

If independent13.3%

At least one63.2%

Exactly one51.6%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

BUF at LAR · Same Team Rb Rb

Blake Corum + Kyren Williams

Blake Corum anytime TD + Kyren Williams anytime TD

P12 both events10.8%

If independent12.6%

At least one60.8%

Exactly one49.9%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

ARI at LAC · Same Team Rb Rb

Omarion Hampton + Kimani Vidal

Omarion Hampton anytime TD + Kimani Vidal anytime TD

P12 both events10.9%

If independent12.6%

At least one61.2%

Exactly one50.2%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

ATL at PIT · Same Team Rb Rb

Eli Heidenreich + Jaylen Warren

Eli Heidenreich anytime TD + Jaylen Warren anytime TD

P12 both events10.6%

If independent12.3%

At least one60.1%

Exactly one49.5%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

MIA at NYJ · Same Team Rb Rb

Ollie Gordon II + Carlos Washington Jr.

Ollie Gordon II anytime TD + Carlos Washington Jr. anytime TD

P12 both events10.3%

If independent12.0%

At least one59.4%

Exactly one49.1%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

JAX at DEN · Same Team Rb Rb

J.K. Dobbins + RJ Harvey

J.K. Dobbins anytime TD + RJ Harvey anytime TD

P12 both events10.3%

If independent11.9%

At least one59.2%

Exactly one49.0%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

LAC at BAL · Same Team Rb Rb

Derrick Henry + Justice Hill

Derrick Henry anytime TD + Justice Hill anytime TD

P12 both events11.9%

If independent13.6%

At least one64.9%

Exactly one53.0%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

BAL at IND · Same Team Rb Rb

Derrick Henry + Justice Hill

Derrick Henry anytime TD + Justice Hill anytime TD

P12 both events12.5%

If independent14.2%

At least one66.7%

Exactly one54.2%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

SEA at ARI · Same Team Rb Rb

Tyler Allgeier + Jeremiyah Love

Tyler Allgeier anytime TD + Jeremiyah Love anytime TD

P12 both events9.9%

If independent11.6%

At least one58.3%

Exactly one48.4%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

JAX at BAL · Same Team Rb Rb

Derrick Henry + Justice Hill

Derrick Henry anytime TD + Justice Hill anytime TD

P12 both events11.7%

If independent13.4%

At least one65.1%

Exactly one53.4%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

WAS at NYG · Same Team Rb Rb

Jacory Croskey-Merritt + Rachaad White

Jacory Croskey-Merritt anytime TD + Rachaad White anytime TD

P12 both events9.6%

If independent11.2%

At least one57.5%

Exactly one47.9%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

LAR at PHI · Same Team Rb Rb

Blake Corum + Kyren Williams

Blake Corum anytime TD + Kyren Williams anytime TD

P12 both events9.5%

If independent11.1%

At least one57.2%

Exactly one47.7%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

TEN at IND · Same Team Rb Rb

Michael Carter + Tony Pollard

Michael Carter anytime TD + Tony Pollard anytime TD

P12 both events9.6%

If independent11.2%

At least one57.7%

Exactly one48.1%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

DET at ARI · Same Team Rb Rb

Tyler Allgeier + Jeremiyah Love

Tyler Allgeier anytime TD + Jeremiyah Love anytime TD

P12 both events9.8%

If independent11.4%

At least one58.7%

Exactly one48.9%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

NYJ at TEN · Same Team Rb Rb

Tony Pollard + Nicholas Singleton

Tony Pollard anytime TD + Nicholas Singleton anytime TD

P12 both events9.4%

If independent11.1%

At least one57.3%

Exactly one47.8%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

WAS at NYG · Same Team Rb Rb

Devin Singletary + Cam Skattebo

Devin Singletary anytime TD + Cam Skattebo anytime TD

P12 both events9.5%

If independent11.1%

At least one57.6%

Exactly one48.1%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

DET at BUF · Same Team Rb Rb

Jahmyr Gibbs + Sione Vaki

Jahmyr Gibbs anytime TD + Sione Vaki anytime TD

P12 both events9.4%

If independent11.0%

At least one57.2%

Exactly one47.8%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

CHI at CAR · Same Team Rb Rb

Kyle Monangai + D'Andre Swift

Kyle Monangai anytime TD + D'Andre Swift anytime TD

P12 both events9.8%

If independent11.4%

At least one59.0%

Exactly one49.1%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

NO at DET · Same Team Rb Rb

Travis Etienne Jr. + Alvin Kamara

Travis Etienne Jr. anytime TD + Alvin Kamara anytime TD

P12 both events9.9%

If independent11.5%

At least one59.3%

Exactly one49.4%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

HOU at TEN · Same Team Rb Rb

Woody Marks + David Montgomery

Woody Marks anytime TD + David Montgomery anytime TD

P12 both events9.5%

If independent11.1%

At least one58.0%

Exactly one48.5%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

NYG at LAR · Same Team Rb Rb

Blake Corum + Kyren Williams

Blake Corum anytime TD + Kyren Williams anytime TD

P12 both events9.1%

If independent10.7%

At least one56.5%

Exactly one47.3%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

MIA at SF · Same Team Rb Rb

Kaelon Black + Christian McCaffrey

Kaelon Black anytime TD + Christian McCaffrey anytime TD

P12 both events9.1%

If independent10.7%

At least one56.4%

Exactly one47.3%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

LAR at WAS · Same Team Rb Rb

Jacory Croskey-Merritt + Rachaad White

Jacory Croskey-Merritt anytime TD + Rachaad White anytime TD

P12 both events9.1%

If independent10.7%

At least one56.5%

Exactly one47.4%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

TEN at BAL · Same Team Rb Rb

Derrick Henry + Justice Hill

Derrick Henry anytime TD + Justice Hill anytime TD

P12 both events9.2%

If independent10.8%

At least one56.6%

Exactly one47.5%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

NE at CHI · Same Team Rb Rb

TreVeyon Henderson + Rhamondre Stevenson

TreVeyon Henderson anytime TD + Rhamondre Stevenson anytime TD

P12 both events9.2%

If independent10.8%

At least one57.1%

Exactly one47.9%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

NYJ at NE · Same Team Rb Rb

Braelon Allen + Breece Hall

Braelon Allen anytime TD + Breece Hall anytime TD

P12 both events9.4%

If independent11.0%

At least one58.0%

Exactly one48.6%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

SF at DAL · Same Team Rb Rb

Kaelon Black + Christian McCaffrey

Kaelon Black anytime TD + Christian McCaffrey anytime TD

P12 both events10.0%

If independent11.6%

At least one60.6%

Exactly one50.5%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

ARI at LAC · Same Team Rb Rb

Tyler Allgeier + Jeremiyah Love

Tyler Allgeier anytime TD + Jeremiyah Love anytime TD

P12 both events9.1%

If independent10.7%

At least one56.6%

Exactly one47.4%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

NYJ at TEN · Same Team Rb Rb

Braelon Allen + Breece Hall

Braelon Allen anytime TD + Breece Hall anytime TD

P12 both events9.2%

If independent10.8%

At least one57.0%

Exactly one47.8%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

ARI at NYG · Same Team Rb Rb

Tyler Allgeier + Jeremiyah Love

Tyler Allgeier anytime TD + Jeremiyah Love anytime TD

P12 both events9.1%

If independent10.6%

At least one56.5%

Exactly one47.4%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

CLE at TB · Same Team Rb Rb

Quinshon Judkins + Raheim Sanders

Quinshon Judkins anytime TD + Raheim Sanders anytime TD

P12 both events9.0%

If independent10.5%

At least one56.0%

Exactly one47.0%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

WAS at PHI · Same Team Rb Rb

Saquon Barkley + Tank Bigsby

Saquon Barkley anytime TD + Tank Bigsby anytime TD

P12 both events9.7%

If independent11.3%

At least one59.4%

Exactly one49.7%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

DEN at CAR · Same Team Rb Rb

Jonathon Brooks + Chuba Hubbard

Jonathon Brooks anytime TD + Chuba Hubbard anytime TD

P12 both events10.1%

If independent11.7%

At least one61.2%

Exactly one51.1%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

CAR at NO · Same Team Rb Rb

Jonathon Brooks + Chuba Hubbard

Jonathon Brooks anytime TD + Chuba Hubbard anytime TD

P12 both events10.2%

If independent11.7%

At least one61.3%

Exactly one51.2%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

BAL at ATL · Same Team Rb Rb

Derrick Henry + Justice Hill

Derrick Henry anytime TD + Justice Hill anytime TD

P12 both events13.7%

If independent15.3%

At least one71.4%

Exactly one57.7%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

PIT at NE · Same Team Rb Rb

Eli Heidenreich + Jaylen Warren

Eli Heidenreich anytime TD + Jaylen Warren anytime TD

P12 both events8.8%

If independent10.4%

At least one55.7%

Exactly one46.9%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

GB at NYJ · Same Team Rb Rb

Braelon Allen + Breece Hall

Braelon Allen anytime TD + Breece Hall anytime TD

P12 both events8.8%

If independent10.4%

At least one55.7%

Exactly one46.8%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

ARI at NYG · Same Team Rb Rb

Devin Singletary + Cam Skattebo

Devin Singletary anytime TD + Cam Skattebo anytime TD

P12 both events9.0%

If independent10.5%

At least one56.6%

Exactly one47.6%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

GB at MIN · Same Team Rb Rb

Aaron Jones Sr. + Jordan Mason

Aaron Jones Sr. anytime TD + Jordan Mason anytime TD

P12 both events8.8%

If independent10.4%

At least one55.9%

Exactly one47.0%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

NO at BAL · Same Team Rb Rb

Derrick Henry + Justice Hill

Derrick Henry anytime TD + Justice Hill anytime TD

P12 both events8.8%

If independent10.3%

At least one55.6%

Exactly one46.8%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

MIA at LV · Same Team Rb Rb

De'Von Achane + Jaylen Wright

De'Von Achane anytime TD + Jaylen Wright anytime TD

P12 both events9.4%

If independent11.0%

At least one58.5%

Exactly one49.1%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

LV at SF · Same Team Rb Rb

Kaelon Black + Christian McCaffrey

Kaelon Black anytime TD + Christian McCaffrey anytime TD

P12 both events10.3%

If independent11.8%

At least one62.1%

Exactly one51.9%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

PIT at CLE · Same Team Rb Rb

Eli Heidenreich + Jaylen Warren

Eli Heidenreich anytime TD + Jaylen Warren anytime TD

P12 both events8.6%

If independent10.2%

At least one55.3%

Exactly one46.6%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

TB at CIN · Same Team Rb Rb

Chase Brown + Samaje Perine

Chase Brown anytime TD + Samaje Perine anytime TD

P12 both events9.4%

If independent11.0%

At least one59.1%

Exactly one49.6%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

GB at NYJ · Same Team Rb Rb

Chris Brooks + MarShawn Lloyd

Chris Brooks anytime TD + MarShawn Lloyd anytime TD

P12 both events8.6%

If independent10.2%

At least one55.1%

Exactly one46.5%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

SEA at ARI · Same Team Rb Rb

Jadarian Price + Emanuel Wilson

Jadarian Price anytime TD + Emanuel Wilson anytime TD

P12 both events8.6%

If independent10.1%

At least one55.1%

Exactly one46.5%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

PHI at WAS · Same Team Rb Rb

Jacory Croskey-Merritt + Rachaad White

Jacory Croskey-Merritt anytime TD + Rachaad White anytime TD

P12 both events8.8%

If independent10.3%

At least one56.2%

Exactly one47.4%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

CLE at NO · Same Team Rb Rb

Travis Etienne Jr. + Alvin Kamara

Travis Etienne Jr. anytime TD + Alvin Kamara anytime TD

P12 both events8.5%

If independent10.1%

At least one55.0%

Exactly one46.5%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

WAS at DAL · Same Team Rb Rb

Javonte Williams + Emari Demercado

Javonte Williams anytime TD + Emari Demercado anytime TD

P12 both events8.5%

If independent10.1%

At least one55.2%

Exactly one46.6%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

CLE at TEN · Same Team Rb Rb

Michael Carter + Tony Pollard

Michael Carter anytime TD + Tony Pollard anytime TD

P12 both events8.5%

If independent10.0%

At least one54.9%

Exactly one46.5%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

SEA at LV · Same Team Rb Rb

George Holani + Emanuel Wilson

George Holani anytime TD + Emanuel Wilson anytime TD

P12 both events8.8%

If independent10.4%

At least one56.7%

Exactly one47.9%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

NE at DET · Same Team Rb Rb

Jahmyr Gibbs + Sione Vaki

Jahmyr Gibbs anytime TD + Sione Vaki anytime TD

P12 both events12.4%

If independent13.9%

At least one69.2%

Exactly one56.9%

Negative · Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.

Open Matchup Lab

P12 preserves each accepted P10 marginal through a historically selected bivariate dependence contract. It does not align independent P10 draw indices, multiply marginals as production truth, use sportsbook prices, or imply a betting recommendation.