PardonMe NFL Research

Week 1 Touchdown Connections

Correlation-aware touchdown research from independent P10 marginals and historically validated football relationships.

80 comparisons

P12 probabilities · no sportsbook input

Market

Position

NO at NYG · Qb Pass Receiver

Isaiah Likely + Jameis Winston

Isaiah Likely anytime TD + Jameis Winston passing TD

P12 both events31.9%

If independent23.7%

At least one70.5%

Exactly one38.5%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

CLE at NYJ · Qb Pass Receiver

Harold Fannin Jr. + Deshaun Watson

Harold Fannin Jr. anytime TD + Deshaun Watson passing TD

P12 both events28.0%

If independent20.6%

At least one69.8%

Exactly one41.7%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

ARI at LAR · Qb Pass Receiver

Jacoby Brissett + Trey McBride

Jacoby Brissett passing TD + Trey McBride anytime TD

P12 both events33.6%

If independent26.2%

At least one74.8%

Exactly one41.2%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

CLE at JAX · Qb Pass Receiver

Harold Fannin Jr. + Deshaun Watson

Harold Fannin Jr. anytime TD + Deshaun Watson passing TD

P12 both events31.4%

If independent24.0%

At least one73.0%

Exactly one41.7%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

IND at PIT · Qb Pass Receiver

Daniel Jones + Tyler Warren

Daniel Jones passing TD + Tyler Warren anytime TD

P12 both events23.8%

If independent16.6%

At least one65.4%

Exactly one41.6%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

TEN at IND · Qb Pass Receiver

Daniel Jones + Tyler Warren

Daniel Jones passing TD + Tyler Warren anytime TD

P12 both events23.3%

If independent16.1%

At least one64.7%

Exactly one41.4%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

NYG at WAS · Qb Pass Receiver

Isaiah Likely + Jameis Winston

Isaiah Likely anytime TD + Jameis Winston passing TD

P12 both events24.7%

If independent17.5%

At least one66.9%

Exactly one42.2%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

DET at ARI · Qb Pass Receiver

Jacoby Brissett + Trey McBride

Jacoby Brissett passing TD + Trey McBride anytime TD

P12 both events34.3%

If independent27.5%

At least one77.2%

Exactly one42.9%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

DAL at NYG · Qb Pass Receiver

Jaxson Dart + Theo Johnson

Jaxson Dart passing TD + Theo Johnson anytime TD

P12 both events23.4%

If independent16.7%

At least one67.5%

Exactly one44.1%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

WAS at PHI · Qb Pass Receiver

Dallas Goedert + Jalen Hurts

Dallas Goedert anytime TD + Jalen Hurts passing TD

P12 both events27.3%

If independent20.7%

At least one72.6%

Exactly one45.3%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

ARI at LAC · Qb Pass Receiver

Jacoby Brissett + Trey McBride

Jacoby Brissett passing TD + Trey McBride anytime TD

P12 both events34.1%

If independent27.6%

At least one78.1%

Exactly one44.0%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

BAL at CLE · Qb Pass Receiver

Harold Fannin Jr. + Deshaun Watson

Harold Fannin Jr. anytime TD + Deshaun Watson passing TD

P12 both events23.2%

If independent16.7%

At least one67.9%

Exactly one44.7%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

ATL at PIT · Qb Pass Receiver

Pat Freiermuth + Aaron Rodgers

Pat Freiermuth anytime TD + Aaron Rodgers passing TD

P12 both events21.9%

If independent15.7%

At least one67.7%

Exactly one45.7%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

BAL at IND · Qb Pass Receiver

Mark Andrews + Lamar Jackson

Mark Andrews anytime TD + Lamar Jackson passing TD

P12 both events21.8%

If independent15.7%

At least one67.8%

Exactly one46.0%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

MIA at LV · Qb Pass Receiver

Greg Dulcich + Malik Willis

Greg Dulcich anytime TD + Malik Willis passing TD

P12 both events17.7%

If independent11.8%

At least one61.8%

Exactly one44.2%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

NE at SEA · Qb Pass Receiver

AJ Barner + Sam Darnold

AJ Barner anytime TD + Sam Darnold passing TD

P12 both events21.2%

If independent15.3%

At least one68.4%

Exactly one47.2%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

MIA at LV · Qb Pass Receiver

Brock Bowers + Kirk Cousins

Brock Bowers anytime TD + Kirk Cousins passing TD

P12 both events26.0%

If independent20.1%

At least one74.2%

Exactly one48.2%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

WAS at PHI · Qb Pass Receiver

Jayden Daniels + Chig Okonkwo

Jayden Daniels passing TD + Chig Okonkwo anytime TD

P12 both events21.7%

If independent15.9%

At least one69.8%

Exactly one48.1%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

GB at MIN · Qb Pass Receiver

Tucker Kraft + Jordan Love

Tucker Kraft anytime TD + Jordan Love passing TD

P12 both events27.5%

If independent21.8%

At least one76.5%

Exactly one49.0%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

LV at NE · Qb Pass Receiver

Brock Bowers + Kirk Cousins

Brock Bowers anytime TD + Kirk Cousins passing TD

P12 both events34.3%

If independent28.7%

At least one81.2%

Exactly one46.9%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

PIT at TB · Qb Pass Receiver

Pat Freiermuth + Aaron Rodgers

Pat Freiermuth anytime TD + Aaron Rodgers passing TD

P12 both events25.2%

If independent19.6%

At least one74.5%

Exactly one49.3%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

DEN at KC · Qb Pass Receiver

Travis Kelce + Patrick Mahomes

Travis Kelce anytime TD + Patrick Mahomes passing TD

P12 both events23.6%

If independent18.0%

At least one73.0%

Exactly one49.4%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

PHI at JAX · Qb Pass Receiver

Dallas Goedert + Jalen Hurts

Dallas Goedert anytime TD + Jalen Hurts passing TD

P12 both events29.5%

If independent24.0%

At least one78.5%

Exactly one49.0%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

IND at PIT · Qb Pass Receiver

Pat Freiermuth + Aaron Rodgers

Pat Freiermuth anytime TD + Aaron Rodgers passing TD

P12 both events22.0%

If independent16.5%

At least one71.3%

Exactly one49.3%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

LV at LAC · Qb Pass Receiver

Brock Bowers + Kirk Cousins

Brock Bowers anytime TD + Kirk Cousins passing TD

P12 both events26.1%

If independent20.7%

At least one76.3%

Exactly one50.2%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

PIT at NO · Qb Pass Receiver

Pat Freiermuth + Aaron Rodgers

Pat Freiermuth anytime TD + Aaron Rodgers passing TD

P12 both events26.2%

If independent20.8%

At least one76.8%

Exactly one50.6%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

BUF at HOU · Qb Pass Receiver

Dalton Schultz + C.J. Stroud

Dalton Schultz anytime TD + C.J. Stroud passing TD

P12 both events19.9%

If independent14.7%

At least one69.9%

Exactly one50.0%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

ATL at PIT · Qb Pass Receiver

Michael Penix Jr. + Kyle Pitts Sr.

Michael Penix Jr. passing TD + Kyle Pitts Sr. anytime TD

P12 both events19.7%

If independent14.5%

At least one69.8%

Exactly one50.1%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

BUF at LV · Qb Pass Receiver

Brock Bowers + Kirk Cousins

Brock Bowers anytime TD + Kirk Cousins passing TD

P12 both events36.8%

If independent31.6%

At least one83.8%

Exactly one47.1%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

DAL at GB · Qb Pass Receiver

Tucker Kraft + Jordan Love

Tucker Kraft anytime TD + Jordan Love passing TD

P12 both events26.3%

If independent21.1%

At least one77.5%

Exactly one51.2%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

MIN at NO · Qb Pass Receiver

T.J. Hockenson + Kyler Murray

T.J. Hockenson anytime TD + Kyler Murray passing TD

P12 both events19.2%

If independent14.1%

At least one69.3%

Exactly one50.1%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

MIN at NO · Qb Pass Receiver

Juwan Johnson + Tyler Shough

Juwan Johnson anytime TD + Tyler Shough passing TD

P12 both events25.1%

If independent20.0%

At least one76.6%

Exactly one51.4%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

NO at DET · Qb Pass Receiver

Juwan Johnson + Tyler Shough

Juwan Johnson anytime TD + Tyler Shough passing TD

P12 both events17.5%

If independent12.5%

At least one67.2%

Exactly one49.7%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

MIA at LV · Qb Pass Receiver

Will Kacmarek + Malik Willis

Will Kacmarek anytime TD + Malik Willis passing TD

P12 both events14.8%

If independent9.8%

At least one61.4%

Exactly one46.7%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

PIT at NE · Qb Pass Receiver

Pat Freiermuth + Aaron Rodgers

Pat Freiermuth anytime TD + Aaron Rodgers passing TD

P12 both events17.8%

If independent12.9%

At least one68.1%

Exactly one50.3%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

BUF at LV · Qb Pass Receiver

Josh Allen + Dalton Kincaid

Josh Allen passing TD + Dalton Kincaid anytime TD

P12 both events21.6%

If independent16.6%

At least one73.7%

Exactly one52.1%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

PIT at TB · Qb Pass Receiver

Baker Mayfield + Cade Otton

Baker Mayfield passing TD + Cade Otton anytime TD

P12 both events18.3%

If independent13.4%

At least one69.0%

Exactly one50.7%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

NO at NYG · Qb Pass Receiver

Juwan Johnson + Tyler Shough

Juwan Johnson anytime TD + Tyler Shough passing TD

P12 both events23.4%

If independent18.4%

At least one75.8%

Exactly one52.4%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

LAC at KC · Qb Pass Receiver

Oronde Gadsden + Justin Herbert

Oronde Gadsden anytime TD + Justin Herbert passing TD

P12 both events18.8%

If independent13.9%

At least one70.1%

Exactly one51.3%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

CHI at CAR · Qb Pass Receiver

Colston Loveland + Caleb Williams

Colston Loveland anytime TD + Caleb Williams passing TD

P12 both events26.4%

If independent21.6%

At least one78.9%

Exactly one52.5%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

ARI at NYG · Qb Pass Receiver

Jacoby Brissett + Trey McBride

Jacoby Brissett passing TD + Trey McBride anytime TD

P12 both events24.4%

If independent19.5%

At least one77.2%

Exactly one52.8%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

LAC at KC · Qb Pass Receiver

Travis Kelce + Patrick Mahomes

Travis Kelce anytime TD + Patrick Mahomes passing TD

P12 both events24.8%

If independent20.0%

At least one77.7%

Exactly one52.9%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

NE at BUF · Qb Pass Receiver

Josh Allen + Dalton Kincaid

Josh Allen passing TD + Dalton Kincaid anytime TD

P12 both events20.8%

If independent16.1%

At least one73.7%

Exactly one52.9%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

HOU at TEN · Qb Pass Receiver

Dalton Schultz + C.J. Stroud

Dalton Schultz anytime TD + C.J. Stroud passing TD

P12 both events21.9%

If independent17.1%

At least one75.0%

Exactly one53.1%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

BUF at HOU · Qb Pass Receiver

Josh Allen + Dawson Knox

Josh Allen passing TD + Dawson Knox anytime TD

P12 both events20.8%

If independent16.0%

At least one73.8%

Exactly one53.1%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

GB at MIN · Qb Pass Receiver

T.J. Hockenson + Kyler Murray

T.J. Hockenson anytime TD + Kyler Murray passing TD

P12 both events18.4%

If independent13.7%

At least one70.5%

Exactly one52.1%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

PIT at CLE · Qb Pass Receiver

Pat Freiermuth + Aaron Rodgers

Pat Freiermuth anytime TD + Aaron Rodgers passing TD

P12 both events18.0%

If independent13.3%

At least one70.0%

Exactly one52.0%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

NO at DET · Qb Pass Receiver

Jared Goff + Sam LaPorta

Jared Goff passing TD + Sam LaPorta anytime TD

P12 both events24.8%

If independent20.1%

At least one78.4%

Exactly one53.5%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

BAL at IND · Qb Pass Receiver

Daniel Jones + Tyler Warren

Daniel Jones passing TD + Tyler Warren anytime TD

P12 both events25.2%

If independent20.6%

At least one79.2%

Exactly one54.0%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

LV at NE · Qb Pass Receiver

Hunter Henry + Drake Maye

Hunter Henry anytime TD + Drake Maye passing TD

P12 both events16.1%

If independent11.6%

At least one67.6%

Exactly one51.5%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

TEN at BAL · Qb Pass Receiver

Mark Andrews + Lamar Jackson

Mark Andrews anytime TD + Lamar Jackson passing TD

P12 both events18.3%

If independent13.8%

At least one71.5%

Exactly one53.2%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

SEA at DEN · Qb Pass Receiver

Evan Engram + Bo Nix

Evan Engram anytime TD + Bo Nix passing TD

P12 both events15.6%

If independent11.0%

At least one66.5%

Exactly one50.9%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

BUF at HOU · Qb Pass Receiver

Josh Allen + Dalton Kincaid

Josh Allen passing TD + Dalton Kincaid anytime TD

P12 both events19.9%

If independent15.3%

At least one73.8%

Exactly one53.9%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

NO at NYG · Qb Pass Receiver

Noah Fant + Tyler Shough

Noah Fant anytime TD + Tyler Shough passing TD

P12 both events21.2%

If independent16.6%

At least one75.6%

Exactly one54.4%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

PIT at CLE · Qb Pass Receiver

Harold Fannin Jr. + Deshaun Watson

Harold Fannin Jr. anytime TD + Deshaun Watson passing TD

P12 both events17.0%

If independent12.5%

At least one69.6%

Exactly one52.6%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

PIT at NO · Qb Pass Receiver

Juwan Johnson + Tyler Shough

Juwan Johnson anytime TD + Tyler Shough passing TD

P12 both events22.6%

If independent18.1%

At least one77.3%

Exactly one54.7%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

MIN at NO · Qb Pass Receiver

Gavin Bartholomew + Kyler Murray

Gavin Bartholomew anytime TD + Kyler Murray passing TD

P12 both events16.3%

If independent11.9%

At least one69.1%

Exactly one52.8%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

BUF at LAR · Qb Pass Receiver

Josh Allen + Dalton Kincaid

Josh Allen passing TD + Dalton Kincaid anytime TD

P12 both events22.6%

If independent18.2%

At least one77.7%

Exactly one55.1%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

SEA at ARI · Qb Pass Receiver

AJ Barner + Sam Darnold

AJ Barner anytime TD + Sam Darnold passing TD

P12 both events17.0%

If independent12.7%

At least one70.8%

Exactly one53.8%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

CIN at MIA · Qb Pass Receiver

Joe Burrow + Mike Gesicki

Joe Burrow passing TD + Mike Gesicki anytime TD

P12 both events24.3%

If independent20.0%

At least one79.6%

Exactly one55.3%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

GB at MIN · Qb Pass Receiver

Kyler Murray + Josh Oliver

Kyler Murray passing TD + Josh Oliver anytime TD

P12 both events16.7%

If independent12.3%

At least one70.3%

Exactly one53.7%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

CLE at TB · Qb Pass Receiver

Harold Fannin Jr. + Deshaun Watson

Harold Fannin Jr. anytime TD + Deshaun Watson passing TD

P12 both events17.1%

If independent12.8%

At least one71.1%

Exactly one54.0%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

GB at NYJ · Qb Pass Receiver

Jordan Love + Jonnu Smith

Jordan Love passing TD + Jonnu Smith anytime TD

P12 both events20.4%

If independent16.2%

At least one76.1%

Exactly one55.6%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

IND at PIT · Qb Pass Receiver

Mo Alie-Cox + Daniel Jones

Mo Alie-Cox anytime TD + Daniel Jones passing TD

P12 both events13.4%

If independent9.2%

At least one64.0%

Exactly one50.6%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

DAL at HOU · Qb Pass Receiver

Dalton Schultz + C.J. Stroud

Dalton Schultz anytime TD + C.J. Stroud passing TD

P12 both events20.9%

If independent16.7%

At least one76.9%

Exactly one56.1%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

NYJ at NE · Qb Pass Receiver

Hunter Henry + Drake Maye

Hunter Henry anytime TD + Drake Maye passing TD

P12 both events21.5%

If independent17.3%

At least one77.6%

Exactly one56.2%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

DAL at NYG · Qb Pass Receiver

Jaxson Dart + Isaiah Likely

Jaxson Dart passing TD + Isaiah Likely anytime TD

P12 both events14.2%

If independent10.0%

At least one66.4%

Exactly one52.2%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

DAL at NYG · Qb Pass Receiver

Jake Ferguson + Dak Prescott

Jake Ferguson anytime TD + Dak Prescott passing TD

P12 both events21.5%

If independent17.3%

At least one77.8%

Exactly one56.3%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

BAL at CLE · Qb Pass Receiver

Mark Andrews + Lamar Jackson

Mark Andrews anytime TD + Lamar Jackson passing TD

P12 both events21.8%

If independent17.6%

At least one78.1%

Exactly one56.4%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

HOU at JAX · Qb Pass Receiver

Dalton Schultz + C.J. Stroud

Dalton Schultz anytime TD + C.J. Stroud passing TD

P12 both events17.3%

If independent13.1%

At least one72.5%

Exactly one55.2%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

NYJ at TEN · Qb Pass Receiver

Gunnar Helm + Cam Ward

Gunnar Helm anytime TD + Cam Ward passing TD

P12 both events16.7%

If independent12.5%

At least one71.6%

Exactly one54.9%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

LAR at PHI · Qb Pass Receiver

Dallas Goedert + Jalen Hurts

Dallas Goedert anytime TD + Jalen Hurts passing TD

P12 both events18.5%

If independent14.3%

At least one74.4%

Exactly one56.0%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

KC at LV · Qb Pass Receiver

Travis Kelce + Patrick Mahomes

Travis Kelce anytime TD + Patrick Mahomes passing TD

P12 both events17.0%

If independent12.9%

At least one72.2%

Exactly one55.2%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

CAR at PHI · Qb Pass Receiver

Dallas Goedert + Jalen Hurts

Dallas Goedert anytime TD + Jalen Hurts passing TD

P12 both events21.7%

If independent17.5%

At least one78.3%

Exactly one56.6%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

CLE at TB · Qb Pass Receiver

Deshaun Watson + Blake Whiteheart

Deshaun Watson passing TD + Blake Whiteheart anytime TD

P12 both events16.2%

If independent12.1%

At least one71.1%

Exactly one54.9%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

ARI at NYG · Qb Pass Receiver

Isaiah Likely + Jameis Winston

Isaiah Likely anytime TD + Jameis Winston passing TD

P12 both events18.4%

If independent14.3%

At least one74.6%

Exactly one56.2%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

HOU at TEN · Qb Pass Receiver

Foster Moreau + C.J. Stroud

Foster Moreau anytime TD + C.J. Stroud passing TD

P12 both events18.4%

If independent14.4%

At least one74.7%

Exactly one56.3%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

ATL at NO · Qb Pass Receiver

Tua Tagovailoa + Charlie Woerner

Tua Tagovailoa passing TD + Charlie Woerner anytime TD

P12 both events16.0%

If independent12.0%

At least one71.0%

Exactly one55.0%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

ATL at PIT · Qb Pass Receiver

Aaron Rodgers + Darnell Washington

Aaron Rodgers passing TD + Darnell Washington anytime TD

P12 both events13.9%

If independent9.9%

At least one66.7%

Exactly one52.8%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

DET at ARI · Qb Pass Receiver

Jared Goff + Sam LaPorta

Jared Goff passing TD + Sam LaPorta anytime TD

P12 both events21.9%

If independent17.9%

At least one78.9%

Exactly one57.0%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

P12 preserves each accepted P10 marginal through a historically selected bivariate dependence contract. It does not align independent P10 draw indices, multiply marginals as production truth, use sportsbook prices, or imply a betting recommendation.