PardonMe NFL Research

Week 1 Touchdown Connections

Correlation-aware touchdown research from independent P10 marginals and historically validated football relationships.

80 comparisons

P12 probabilities · no sportsbook input

Market

Position

CLE at JAX · Qb Pass Receiver

Harold Fannin Jr. + Deshaun Watson

Harold Fannin Jr. anytime TD + Deshaun Watson passing TD

P12 both events31.4%

If independent24.0%

At least one73.0%

Exactly one41.7%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

DAL at NYG · Qb Pass Receiver

Jaxson Dart + Theo Johnson

Jaxson Dart passing TD + Theo Johnson anytime TD

P12 both events23.4%

If independent16.7%

At least one67.5%

Exactly one44.1%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

WAS at PHI · Qb Pass Receiver

Dallas Goedert + Jalen Hurts

Dallas Goedert anytime TD + Jalen Hurts passing TD

P12 both events27.3%

If independent20.7%

At least one72.6%

Exactly one45.3%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

ARI at LAC · Qb Pass Receiver

Jacoby Brissett + Trey McBride

Jacoby Brissett passing TD + Trey McBride anytime TD

P12 both events34.1%

If independent27.6%

At least one78.1%

Exactly one44.0%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

ATL at PIT · Qb Pass Receiver

Pat Freiermuth + Aaron Rodgers

Pat Freiermuth anytime TD + Aaron Rodgers passing TD

P12 both events21.9%

If independent15.7%

At least one67.7%

Exactly one45.7%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

BAL at IND · Qb Pass Receiver

Mark Andrews + Lamar Jackson

Mark Andrews anytime TD + Lamar Jackson passing TD

P12 both events21.8%

If independent15.7%

At least one67.8%

Exactly one46.0%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

MIA at LV · Qb Pass Receiver

Greg Dulcich + Malik Willis

Greg Dulcich anytime TD + Malik Willis passing TD

P12 both events17.7%

If independent11.8%

At least one61.8%

Exactly one44.2%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

NE at SEA · Qb Pass Receiver

AJ Barner + Sam Darnold

AJ Barner anytime TD + Sam Darnold passing TD

P12 both events21.2%

If independent15.3%

At least one68.4%

Exactly one47.2%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

MIA at LV · Qb Pass Receiver

Brock Bowers + Kirk Cousins

Brock Bowers anytime TD + Kirk Cousins passing TD

P12 both events26.0%

If independent20.1%

At least one74.2%

Exactly one48.2%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

WAS at PHI · Qb Pass Receiver

Jayden Daniels + Chig Okonkwo

Jayden Daniels passing TD + Chig Okonkwo anytime TD

P12 both events21.7%

If independent15.9%

At least one69.8%

Exactly one48.1%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

GB at MIN · Qb Pass Receiver

Tucker Kraft + Jordan Love

Tucker Kraft anytime TD + Jordan Love passing TD

P12 both events27.5%

If independent21.8%

At least one76.5%

Exactly one49.0%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

DEN at KC · Qb Pass Receiver

Travis Kelce + Patrick Mahomes

Travis Kelce anytime TD + Patrick Mahomes passing TD

P12 both events23.6%

If independent18.0%

At least one73.0%

Exactly one49.4%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

LV at LAC · Qb Pass Receiver

Brock Bowers + Kirk Cousins

Brock Bowers anytime TD + Kirk Cousins passing TD

P12 both events26.1%

If independent20.7%

At least one76.3%

Exactly one50.2%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

BUF at HOU · Qb Pass Receiver

Dalton Schultz + C.J. Stroud

Dalton Schultz anytime TD + C.J. Stroud passing TD

P12 both events19.9%

If independent14.7%

At least one69.9%

Exactly one50.0%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

ATL at PIT · Qb Pass Receiver

Michael Penix Jr. + Kyle Pitts Sr.

Michael Penix Jr. passing TD + Kyle Pitts Sr. anytime TD

P12 both events19.7%

If independent14.5%

At least one69.8%

Exactly one50.1%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

NO at DET · Qb Pass Receiver

Juwan Johnson + Tyler Shough

Juwan Johnson anytime TD + Tyler Shough passing TD

P12 both events17.5%

If independent12.5%

At least one67.2%

Exactly one49.7%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

MIA at LV · Qb Pass Receiver

Will Kacmarek + Malik Willis

Will Kacmarek anytime TD + Malik Willis passing TD

P12 both events14.8%

If independent9.8%

At least one61.4%

Exactly one46.7%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

PIT at NE · Qb Pass Receiver

Pat Freiermuth + Aaron Rodgers

Pat Freiermuth anytime TD + Aaron Rodgers passing TD

P12 both events17.8%

If independent12.9%

At least one68.1%

Exactly one50.3%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

CHI at CAR · Qb Pass Receiver

Colston Loveland + Caleb Williams

Colston Loveland anytime TD + Caleb Williams passing TD

P12 both events26.4%

If independent21.6%

At least one78.9%

Exactly one52.5%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

BUF at HOU · Qb Pass Receiver

Josh Allen + Dawson Knox

Josh Allen passing TD + Dawson Knox anytime TD

P12 both events20.8%

If independent16.0%

At least one73.8%

Exactly one53.1%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

GB at MIN · Qb Pass Receiver

T.J. Hockenson + Kyler Murray

T.J. Hockenson anytime TD + Kyler Murray passing TD

P12 both events18.4%

If independent13.7%

At least one70.5%

Exactly one52.1%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

NO at DET · Qb Pass Receiver

Jared Goff + Sam LaPorta

Jared Goff passing TD + Sam LaPorta anytime TD

P12 both events24.8%

If independent20.1%

At least one78.4%

Exactly one53.5%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

BAL at IND · Qb Pass Receiver

Daniel Jones + Tyler Warren

Daniel Jones passing TD + Tyler Warren anytime TD

P12 both events25.2%

If independent20.6%

At least one79.2%

Exactly one54.0%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

BUF at HOU · Qb Pass Receiver

Josh Allen + Dalton Kincaid

Josh Allen passing TD + Dalton Kincaid anytime TD

P12 both events19.9%

If independent15.3%

At least one73.8%

Exactly one53.9%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

SEA at ARI · Qb Pass Receiver

AJ Barner + Sam Darnold

AJ Barner anytime TD + Sam Darnold passing TD

P12 both events17.0%

If independent12.7%

At least one70.8%

Exactly one53.8%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

GB at MIN · Qb Pass Receiver

Kyler Murray + Josh Oliver

Kyler Murray passing TD + Josh Oliver anytime TD

P12 both events16.7%

If independent12.3%

At least one70.3%

Exactly one53.7%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

CLE at TB · Qb Pass Receiver

Harold Fannin Jr. + Deshaun Watson

Harold Fannin Jr. anytime TD + Deshaun Watson passing TD

P12 both events17.1%

If independent12.8%

At least one71.1%

Exactly one54.0%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

GB at NYJ · Qb Pass Receiver

Jordan Love + Jonnu Smith

Jordan Love passing TD + Jonnu Smith anytime TD

P12 both events20.4%

If independent16.2%

At least one76.1%

Exactly one55.6%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

DAL at NYG · Qb Pass Receiver

Jaxson Dart + Isaiah Likely

Jaxson Dart passing TD + Isaiah Likely anytime TD

P12 both events14.2%

If independent10.0%

At least one66.4%

Exactly one52.2%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

DAL at NYG · Qb Pass Receiver

Jake Ferguson + Dak Prescott

Jake Ferguson anytime TD + Dak Prescott passing TD

P12 both events21.5%

If independent17.3%

At least one77.8%

Exactly one56.3%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

NYJ at TEN · Qb Pass Receiver

Gunnar Helm + Cam Ward

Gunnar Helm anytime TD + Cam Ward passing TD

P12 both events16.7%

If independent12.5%

At least one71.6%

Exactly one54.9%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

CLE at TB · Qb Pass Receiver

Deshaun Watson + Blake Whiteheart

Deshaun Watson passing TD + Blake Whiteheart anytime TD

P12 both events16.2%

If independent12.1%

At least one71.1%

Exactly one54.9%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

ATL at PIT · Qb Pass Receiver

Aaron Rodgers + Darnell Washington

Aaron Rodgers passing TD + Darnell Washington anytime TD

P12 both events13.9%

If independent9.9%

At least one66.7%

Exactly one52.8%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

SEA at ARI · Qb Pass Receiver

Jacoby Brissett + Trey McBride

Jacoby Brissett passing TD + Trey McBride anytime TD

P12 both events19.7%

If independent15.6%

At least one76.5%

Exactly one56.9%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

CIN at HOU · Qb Pass Receiver

Foster Moreau + C.J. Stroud

Foster Moreau anytime TD + C.J. Stroud passing TD

P12 both events17.9%

If independent13.9%

At least one74.3%

Exactly one56.4%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

NYJ at TEN · Qb Pass Receiver

Daniel Bellinger + Cam Ward

Daniel Bellinger anytime TD + Cam Ward passing TD

P12 both events16.2%

If independent12.1%

At least one71.5%

Exactly one55.3%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

MIA at SF · Qb Pass Receiver

Will Kacmarek + Malik Willis

Will Kacmarek anytime TD + Malik Willis passing TD

P12 both events16.0%

If independent12.0%

At least one71.3%

Exactly one55.3%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

PIT at NE · Qb Pass Receiver

Aaron Rodgers + Darnell Washington

Aaron Rodgers passing TD + Darnell Washington anytime TD

P12 both events14.2%

If independent10.2%

At least one67.7%

Exactly one53.5%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

GB at NYJ · Qb Pass Receiver

Tucker Kraft + Jordan Love

Tucker Kraft anytime TD + Jordan Love passing TD

P12 both events19.0%

If independent15.0%

At least one76.0%

Exactly one57.0%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

CHI at CAR · Qb Pass Receiver

Mitchell Evans + Bryce Young

Mitchell Evans anytime TD + Bryce Young passing TD

P12 both events15.3%

If independent11.3%

At least one70.2%

Exactly one54.9%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

DET at BUF · Qb Pass Receiver

Josh Allen + Dalton Kincaid

Josh Allen passing TD + Dalton Kincaid anytime TD

P12 both events19.9%

If independent15.9%

At least one77.3%

Exactly one57.5%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

PHI at TEN · Qb Pass Receiver

Dallas Goedert + Jalen Hurts

Dallas Goedert anytime TD + Jalen Hurts passing TD

P12 both events18.3%

If independent14.4%

At least one75.5%

Exactly one57.1%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

JAX at DEN · Qb Pass Receiver

Bo Nix + Adam Trautman

Bo Nix passing TD + Adam Trautman anytime TD

P12 both events14.8%

If independent10.9%

At least one69.7%

Exactly one54.9%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

NO at DET · Qb Pass Receiver

Noah Fant + Tyler Shough

Noah Fant anytime TD + Tyler Shough passing TD

P12 both events13.4%

If independent9.5%

At least one66.8%

Exactly one53.3%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

NO at BAL · Qb Pass Receiver

Lamar Jackson + Durham Smythe

Lamar Jackson passing TD + Durham Smythe anytime TD

P12 both events15.4%

If independent11.6%

At least one71.5%

Exactly one56.1%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

DEN at KC · Qb Pass Receiver

Evan Engram + Bo Nix

Evan Engram anytime TD + Bo Nix passing TD

P12 both events12.5%

If independent8.6%

At least one64.8%

Exactly one52.3%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

NE at SEA · Qb Pass Receiver

Hunter Henry + Drake Maye

Hunter Henry anytime TD + Drake Maye passing TD

P12 both events21.8%

If independent17.9%

At least one79.9%

Exactly one58.1%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

PHI at TEN · Qb Pass Receiver

Gunnar Helm + Cam Ward

Gunnar Helm anytime TD + Cam Ward passing TD

P12 both events17.2%

If independent13.3%

At least one74.6%

Exactly one57.5%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

MIA at SF · Qb Pass Receiver

Greg Dulcich + Malik Willis

Greg Dulcich anytime TD + Malik Willis passing TD

P12 both events15.0%

If independent11.3%

At least one71.2%

Exactly one56.2%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

SF at LAR · Qb Pass Receiver

George Kittle + Brock Purdy

George Kittle anytime TD + Brock Purdy passing TD

P12 both events32.3%

If independent28.5%

At least one86.6%

Exactly one54.4%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

ARI at LAC · Qb Pass Receiver

Oronde Gadsden + Justin Herbert

Oronde Gadsden anytime TD + Justin Herbert passing TD

P12 both events16.0%

If independent12.2%

At least one73.1%

Exactly one57.1%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

MIA at LV · Qb Pass Receiver

Kirk Cousins + Michael Mayer

Kirk Cousins passing TD + Michael Mayer anytime TD

P12 both events16.0%

If independent12.2%

At least one73.4%

Exactly one57.4%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

NYG at LAR · Qb Pass Receiver

Jaxson Dart + Theo Johnson

Jaxson Dart passing TD + Theo Johnson anytime TD

P12 both events15.0%

If independent11.3%

At least one71.9%

Exactly one56.8%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

MIN at CHI · Qb Pass Receiver

Kyler Murray + Josh Oliver

Kyler Murray passing TD + Josh Oliver anytime TD

P12 both events16.4%

If independent12.7%

At least one74.3%

Exactly one57.8%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

BUF at HOU · Qb Pass Receiver

Foster Moreau + C.J. Stroud

Foster Moreau anytime TD + C.J. Stroud passing TD

P12 both events13.6%

If independent10.0%

At least one69.3%

Exactly one55.7%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

MIN at CHI · Qb Pass Receiver

Colston Loveland + Caleb Williams

Colston Loveland anytime TD + Caleb Williams passing TD

P12 both events18.3%

If independent14.7%

At least one77.3%

Exactly one59.0%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

NO at BAL · Qb Pass Receiver

Juwan Johnson + Tyler Shough

Juwan Johnson anytime TD + Tyler Shough passing TD

P12 both events13.9%

If independent10.3%

At least one70.2%

Exactly one56.2%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

NO at BAL · Qb Pass Receiver

Noah Fant + Tyler Shough

Noah Fant anytime TD + Tyler Shough passing TD

P12 both events13.9%

If independent10.3%

At least one70.2%

Exactly one56.3%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

DET at BUF · Qb Pass Receiver

Jared Goff + Sam LaPorta

Jared Goff passing TD + Sam LaPorta anytime TD

P12 both events17.3%

If independent13.7%

At least one76.3%

Exactly one58.9%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

PHI at TEN · Qb Pass Receiver

Daniel Bellinger + Cam Ward

Daniel Bellinger anytime TD + Cam Ward passing TD

P12 both events16.1%

If independent12.5%

At least one74.6%

Exactly one58.4%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

JAX at DEN · Qb Pass Receiver

Evan Engram + Bo Nix

Evan Engram anytime TD + Bo Nix passing TD

P12 both events13.5%

If independent9.9%

At least one69.6%

Exactly one56.1%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

DET at BUF · Qb Pass Receiver

Jared Goff + Brock Wright

Jared Goff passing TD + Brock Wright anytime TD

P12 both events17.2%

If independent13.6%

At least one76.3%

Exactly one59.1%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

NYG at LAR · Qb Pass Receiver

Jaxson Dart + Isaiah Likely

Jaxson Dart passing TD + Isaiah Likely anytime TD

P12 both events14.1%

If independent10.6%

At least one71.8%

Exactly one57.7%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

NO at BAL · Qb Pass Receiver

Mark Andrews + Lamar Jackson

Mark Andrews anytime TD + Lamar Jackson passing TD

P12 both events13.8%

If independent10.4%

At least one71.4%

Exactly one57.5%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

CAR at ATL · Qb Pass Receiver

Kyle Pitts Sr. + Tua Tagovailoa

Kyle Pitts Sr. anytime TD + Tua Tagovailoa passing TD

P12 both events13.7%

If independent10.3%

At least one71.6%

Exactly one57.9%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

WAS at DAL · Qb Pass Receiver

Jake Ferguson + Dak Prescott

Jake Ferguson anytime TD + Dak Prescott passing TD

P12 both events17.0%

If independent13.6%

At least one77.1%

Exactly one60.1%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

MIN at CHI · Qb Pass Receiver

Cole Kmet + Caleb Williams

Cole Kmet anytime TD + Caleb Williams passing TD

P12 both events16.9%

If independent13.5%

At least one77.2%

Exactly one60.3%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

DET at BUF · Qb Pass Receiver

Josh Allen + Dawson Knox

Josh Allen passing TD + Dawson Knox anytime TD

P12 both events16.8%

If independent13.4%

At least one77.1%

Exactly one60.4%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

NO at DET · Qb Pass Receiver

Jared Goff + Brock Wright

Jared Goff passing TD + Brock Wright anytime TD

P12 both events17.3%

If independent13.9%

At least one77.9%

Exactly one60.6%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

CAR at ATL · Qb Pass Receiver

Tommy Tremble + Bryce Young

Tommy Tremble anytime TD + Bryce Young passing TD

P12 both events16.9%

If independent13.6%

At least one77.4%

Exactly one60.5%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

NYJ at TEN · Qb Pass Receiver

Geno Smith + Mason Taylor

Geno Smith passing TD + Mason Taylor anytime TD

P12 both events15.5%

If independent12.2%

At least one75.7%

Exactly one60.1%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

CHI at CAR · Qb Pass Receiver

Tommy Tremble + Bryce Young

Tommy Tremble anytime TD + Bryce Young passing TD

P12 both events12.3%

If independent9.1%

At least one70.0%

Exactly one57.7%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

MIN at CHI · Qb Pass Receiver

T.J. Hockenson + Kyler Murray

T.J. Hockenson anytime TD + Kyler Murray passing TD

P12 both events14.3%

If independent11.0%

At least one74.1%

Exactly one59.9%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

NYJ at TEN · Qb Pass Receiver

Jeremy Ruckert + Geno Smith

Jeremy Ruckert anytime TD + Geno Smith passing TD

P12 both events15.1%

If independent11.9%

At least one75.6%

Exactly one60.6%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

LV at LAC · Qb Pass Receiver

Justin Herbert + David Njoku

Justin Herbert passing TD + David Njoku anytime TD

P12 both events16.6%

If independent13.4%

At least one77.9%

Exactly one61.3%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

ATL at PIT · Qb Pass Receiver

Michael Penix Jr. + Charlie Woerner

Michael Penix Jr. passing TD + Charlie Woerner anytime TD

P12 both events11.9%

If independent8.7%

At least one69.1%

Exactly one57.3%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

PIT at NE · Qb Pass Receiver

Hunter Henry + Drake Maye

Hunter Henry anytime TD + Drake Maye passing TD

P12 both events17.8%

If independent14.6%

At least one79.5%

Exactly one61.7%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

PIT at NE · Qb Pass Receiver

Drake Maye + Eli Raridon

Drake Maye passing TD + Eli Raridon anytime TD

P12 both events17.8%

If independent14.6%

At least one79.5%

Exactly one61.7%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

CHI at CAR · Qb Pass Receiver

Cole Kmet + Caleb Williams

Cole Kmet anytime TD + Caleb Williams passing TD

P12 both events16.7%

If independent13.6%

At least one78.3%

Exactly one61.6%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

DEN at KC · Qb Pass Receiver

Bo Nix + Adam Trautman

Bo Nix passing TD + Adam Trautman anytime TD

P12 both events10.2%

If independent7.1%

At least one64.6%

Exactly one54.3%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

P12 preserves each accepted P10 marginal through a historically selected bivariate dependence contract. It does not align independent P10 draw indices, multiply marginals as production truth, use sportsbook prices, or imply a betting recommendation.