PardonMe NFL Research

Week 1 Touchdown Connections

Correlation-aware touchdown research from independent P10 marginals and historically validated football relationships.

80 comparisons

P12 probabilities · no sportsbook input

Market

Position

NE at SEA · Qb Pass Receiver

Sam Darnold + Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Sam Darnold passing TD + Jaxon Smith-Njigba anytime TD

P12 both events39.5%

If independent29.7%

At least one71.7%

Exactly one32.2%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

SEA at DEN · Qb Pass Receiver

Sam Darnold + Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Sam Darnold passing TD + Jaxon Smith-Njigba anytime TD

P12 both events52.2%

If independent43.4%

At least one80.8%

Exactly one28.6%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

NO at DET · Qb Pass Receiver

Chris Olave + Tyler Shough

Chris Olave anytime TD + Tyler Shough passing TD

P12 both events32.7%

If independent24.0%

At least one69.5%

Exactly one36.8%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

BAL at CLE · Qb Pass Receiver

Denzel Boston + Deshaun Watson

Denzel Boston anytime TD + Deshaun Watson passing TD

P12 both events31.9%

If independent23.4%

At least one69.4%

Exactly one37.4%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

ARI at LAR · Qb Pass Receiver

Davante Adams + Matthew Stafford

Davante Adams anytime TD + Matthew Stafford passing TD

P12 both events45.5%

If independent37.0%

At least one78.5%

Exactly one33.0%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

BUF at LAR · Qb Pass Receiver

Davante Adams + Matthew Stafford

Davante Adams anytime TD + Matthew Stafford passing TD

P12 both events53.3%

If independent45.0%

At least one82.2%

Exactly one28.9%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

SF at SEA · Qb Pass Receiver

Sam Darnold + Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Sam Darnold passing TD + Jaxon Smith-Njigba anytime TD

P12 both events54.3%

If independent46.0%

At least one82.7%

Exactly one28.4%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

DAL at GB · Qb Pass Receiver

Jordan Love + Christian Watson

Jordan Love passing TD + Christian Watson anytime TD

P12 both events47.2%

If independent39.0%

At least one80.1%

Exactly one32.8%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

DAL at NYG · Qb Pass Receiver

Jaxson Dart + Malik Nabers

Jaxson Dart passing TD + Malik Nabers anytime TD

P12 both events29.7%

If independent21.5%

At least one68.5%

Exactly one38.8%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

HOU at JAX · Qb Pass Receiver

Nico Collins + C.J. Stroud

Nico Collins anytime TD + C.J. Stroud passing TD

P12 both events36.6%

If independent28.5%

At least one74.7%

Exactly one38.1%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

GB at MIN · Qb Pass Receiver

Jauan Jennings + Kyler Murray

Jauan Jennings anytime TD + Kyler Murray passing TD

P12 both events32.8%

If independent24.8%

At least one72.3%

Exactly one39.5%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

DEN at KC · Qb Pass Receiver

Patrick Mahomes + Rashee Rice

Patrick Mahomes passing TD + Rashee Rice anytime TD

P12 both events35.7%

If independent27.7%

At least one74.5%

Exactly one38.8%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

DEN at KC · Qb Pass Receiver

Bo Nix + Jaylen Waddle

Bo Nix passing TD + Jaylen Waddle anytime TD

P12 both events27.4%

If independent19.4%

At least one66.8%

Exactly one39.5%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

BAL at ATL · Qb Pass Receiver

Drake London + Tua Tagovailoa

Drake London anytime TD + Tua Tagovailoa passing TD

P12 both events32.5%

If independent24.6%

At least one72.3%

Exactly one39.8%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

CLE at NYJ · Qb Pass Receiver

Denzel Boston + Deshaun Watson

Denzel Boston anytime TD + Deshaun Watson passing TD

P12 both events30.0%

If independent22.2%

At least one70.1%

Exactly one40.1%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

BAL at IND · Qb Pass Receiver

Zay Flowers + Lamar Jackson

Zay Flowers anytime TD + Lamar Jackson passing TD

P12 both events28.5%

If independent20.7%

At least one68.8%

Exactly one40.3%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

CHI at CAR · Qb Pass Receiver

Tetairoa McMillan + Bryce Young

Tetairoa McMillan anytime TD + Bryce Young passing TD

P12 both events31.6%

If independent23.9%

At least one72.1%

Exactly one40.5%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

NYG at WAS · Qb Pass Receiver

Malik Nabers + Jameis Winston

Malik Nabers anytime TD + Jameis Winston passing TD

P12 both events26.9%

If independent19.2%

At least one67.3%

Exactly one40.4%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

NO at DET · Qb Pass Receiver

Tyler Shough + Devaughn Vele

Tyler Shough passing TD + Devaughn Vele anytime TD

P12 both events28.0%

If independent20.3%

At least one68.6%

Exactly one40.6%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

NO at NYG · Qb Pass Receiver

Chris Olave + Tyler Shough

Chris Olave anytime TD + Tyler Shough passing TD

P12 both events39.1%

If independent31.4%

At least one77.5%

Exactly one38.4%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

ATL at PIT · Qb Pass Receiver

Drake London + Michael Penix Jr.

Drake London anytime TD + Michael Penix Jr. passing TD

P12 both events30.5%

If independent22.8%

At least one71.2%

Exactly one40.7%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

ARI at LAR · Qb Pass Receiver

Jacoby Brissett + Michael Wilson

Jacoby Brissett passing TD + Michael Wilson anytime TD

P12 both events34.9%

If independent27.3%

At least one75.0%

Exactly one40.1%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

NYJ at NE · Qb Pass Receiver

Geno Smith + Garrett Wilson

Geno Smith passing TD + Garrett Wilson anytime TD

P12 both events37.6%

If independent30.0%

At least one77.0%

Exactly one39.3%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

NO at NYG · Qb Pass Receiver

Malik Nabers + Jameis Winston

Malik Nabers anytime TD + Jameis Winston passing TD

P12 both events28.7%

If independent21.2%

At least one69.9%

Exactly one41.2%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

MIN at NO · Qb Pass Receiver

Chris Olave + Tyler Shough

Chris Olave anytime TD + Tyler Shough passing TD

P12 both events38.8%

If independent31.4%

At least one78.0%

Exactly one39.2%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

DEN at KC · Qb Pass Receiver

Bo Nix + Courtland Sutton

Bo Nix passing TD + Courtland Sutton anytime TD

P12 both events25.2%

If independent17.8%

At least one66.5%

Exactly one41.2%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

WAS at SF · Qb Pass Receiver

Jayden Daniels + Stefon Diggs

Jayden Daniels passing TD + Stefon Diggs anytime TD

P12 both events30.5%

If independent23.1%

At least one72.3%

Exactly one41.8%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

DEN at LAC · Qb Pass Receiver

Justin Herbert + Ladd McConkey

Justin Herbert passing TD + Ladd McConkey anytime TD

P12 both events28.0%

If independent20.6%

At least one69.8%

Exactly one41.9%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

PIT at NE · Qb Pass Receiver

Aaron Rodgers + Roman Wilson

Aaron Rodgers passing TD + Roman Wilson anytime TD

P12 both events26.9%

If independent19.7%

At least one69.3%

Exactly one42.4%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

DAL at GB · Qb Pass Receiver

CeeDee Lamb + Dak Prescott

CeeDee Lamb anytime TD + Dak Prescott passing TD

P12 both events37.3%

If independent30.2%

At least one78.1%

Exactly one40.8%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

CLE at NYJ · Qb Pass Receiver

Geno Smith + Garrett Wilson

Geno Smith passing TD + Garrett Wilson anytime TD

P12 both events37.0%

If independent29.9%

At least one77.9%

Exactly one40.9%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

SEA at ARI · Qb Pass Receiver

Sam Darnold + Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Sam Darnold passing TD + Jaxon Smith-Njigba anytime TD

P12 both events29.3%

If independent22.1%

At least one72.1%

Exactly one42.8%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

MIN at NO · Qb Pass Receiver

Justin Jefferson + Kyler Murray

Justin Jefferson anytime TD + Kyler Murray passing TD

P12 both events27.5%

If independent20.4%

At least one70.4%

Exactly one42.9%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

BAL at CLE · Qb Pass Receiver

Zay Flowers + Lamar Jackson

Zay Flowers anytime TD + Lamar Jackson passing TD

P12 both events40.2%

If independent33.1%

At least one79.8%

Exactly one39.6%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

SEA at DEN · Qb Pass Receiver

Bo Nix + Jaylen Waddle

Bo Nix passing TD + Jaylen Waddle anytime TD

P12 both events25.2%

If independent18.1%

At least one67.8%

Exactly one42.6%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

WAS at PHI · Qb Pass Receiver

Jayden Daniels + Stefon Diggs

Jayden Daniels passing TD + Stefon Diggs anytime TD

P12 both events27.5%

If independent20.4%

At least one70.5%

Exactly one43.0%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

HOU at TEN · Qb Pass Receiver

Nico Collins + C.J. Stroud

Nico Collins anytime TD + C.J. Stroud passing TD

P12 both events33.9%

If independent26.9%

At least one76.2%

Exactly one42.3%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

ATL at PIT · Qb Pass Receiver

DK Metcalf + Aaron Rodgers

DK Metcalf anytime TD + Aaron Rodgers passing TD

P12 both events25.3%

If independent18.3%

At least one68.1%

Exactly one42.8%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

IND at PIT · Qb Pass Receiver

Aaron Rodgers + Roman Wilson

Aaron Rodgers passing TD + Roman Wilson anytime TD

P12 both events28.3%

If independent21.4%

At least one72.1%

Exactly one43.8%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

CHI at ATL · Qb Pass Receiver

Drake London + Tua Tagovailoa

Drake London anytime TD + Tua Tagovailoa passing TD

P12 both events33.2%

If independent26.3%

At least one76.2%

Exactly one43.1%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

NYJ at TEN · Qb Pass Receiver

Geno Smith + Garrett Wilson

Geno Smith passing TD + Garrett Wilson anytime TD

P12 both events34.6%

If independent27.7%

At least one77.3%

Exactly one42.7%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

BUF at LV · Qb Pass Receiver

Josh Allen + DJ Moore

Josh Allen passing TD + DJ Moore anytime TD

P12 both events30.6%

If independent23.8%

At least one74.6%

Exactly one44.0%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

ATL at NO · Qb Pass Receiver

Chris Olave + Tyler Shough

Chris Olave anytime TD + Tyler Shough passing TD

P12 both events26.5%

If independent19.8%

At least one70.8%

Exactly one44.2%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

ARI at LAR · Qb Pass Receiver

Puka Nacua + Matthew Stafford

Puka Nacua anytime TD + Matthew Stafford passing TD

P12 both events33.1%

If independent26.3%

At least one76.6%

Exactly one43.5%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

TB at CIN · Qb Pass Receiver

Baker Mayfield + Jalen McMillan

Baker Mayfield passing TD + Jalen McMillan anytime TD

P12 both events32.8%

If independent26.1%

At least one76.6%

Exactly one43.8%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

PIT at NO · Qb Pass Receiver

Chris Olave + Tyler Shough

Chris Olave anytime TD + Tyler Shough passing TD

P12 both events35.6%

If independent28.9%

At least one78.4%

Exactly one42.9%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

BUF at LV · Qb Pass Receiver

Josh Allen + Keon Coleman

Josh Allen passing TD + Keon Coleman anytime TD

P12 both events30.0%

If independent23.3%

At least one74.6%

Exactly one44.5%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

DET at ARI · Qb Pass Receiver

Jared Goff + Amon-Ra St. Brown

Jared Goff passing TD + Amon-Ra St. Brown anytime TD

P12 both events38.6%

If independent32.0%

At least one80.3%

Exactly one41.7%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

CIN at MIA · Qb Pass Receiver

Joe Burrow + Tee Higgins

Joe Burrow passing TD + Tee Higgins anytime TD

P12 both events39.4%

If independent32.8%

At least one80.9%

Exactly one41.5%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

ARI at LAC · Qb Pass Receiver

Justin Herbert + Quentin Johnston

Justin Herbert passing TD + Quentin Johnston anytime TD

P12 both events29.3%

If independent22.7%

At least one74.3%

Exactly one45.1%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

NO at BAL · Qb Pass Receiver

Chris Olave + Tyler Shough

Chris Olave anytime TD + Tyler Shough passing TD

P12 both events26.0%

If independent19.5%

At least one71.4%

Exactly one45.4%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

WAS at PHI · Qb Pass Receiver

Jayden Daniels + Terry McLaurin

Jayden Daniels passing TD + Terry McLaurin anytime TD

P12 both events24.7%

If independent18.2%

At least one70.1%

Exactly one45.5%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

WAS at SF · Qb Pass Receiver

Jayden Daniels + Terry McLaurin

Jayden Daniels passing TD + Terry McLaurin anytime TD

P12 both events26.0%

If independent19.6%

At least one71.7%

Exactly one45.7%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

DET at BUF · Qb Pass Receiver

Jared Goff + Isaac TeSlaa

Jared Goff passing TD + Isaac TeSlaa anytime TD

P12 both events32.7%

If independent26.3%

At least one77.5%

Exactly one44.8%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

CHI at GB · Qb Pass Receiver

Jordan Love + Christian Watson

Jordan Love passing TD + Christian Watson anytime TD

P12 both events48.3%

If independent41.9%

At least one84.8%

Exactly one36.5%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

CLE at TB · Qb Pass Receiver

Baker Mayfield + Jalen McMillan

Baker Mayfield passing TD + Jalen McMillan anytime TD

P12 both events32.3%

If independent25.9%

At least one77.3%

Exactly one45.0%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

NO at BAL · Qb Pass Receiver

Tyler Shough + Devaughn Vele

Tyler Shough passing TD + Devaughn Vele anytime TD

P12 both events25.5%

If independent19.1%

At least one71.3%

Exactly one45.8%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

LAC at KC · Qb Pass Receiver

Justin Herbert + Ladd McConkey

Justin Herbert passing TD + Ladd McConkey anytime TD

P12 both events24.7%

If independent18.4%

At least one70.7%

Exactly one46.0%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

TEN at BAL · Qb Pass Receiver

Lamar Jackson + Devontez Walker

Lamar Jackson passing TD + Devontez Walker anytime TD

P12 both events26.1%

If independent19.8%

At least one72.3%

Exactly one46.2%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

ATL at NO · Qb Pass Receiver

Tyler Shough + Devaughn Vele

Tyler Shough passing TD + Devaughn Vele anytime TD

P12 both events24.4%

If independent18.1%

At least one70.5%

Exactly one46.1%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

PIT at TB · Qb Pass Receiver

Aaron Rodgers + Roman Wilson

Aaron Rodgers passing TD + Roman Wilson anytime TD

P12 both events28.6%

If independent22.3%

At least one74.9%

Exactly one46.3%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

IND at PIT · Qb Pass Receiver

Josh Downs + Daniel Jones

Josh Downs anytime TD + Daniel Jones passing TD

P12 both events20.5%

If independent14.2%

At least one64.9%

Exactly one44.4%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

GB at MIN · Qb Pass Receiver

Jordan Love + Christian Watson

Jordan Love passing TD + Christian Watson anytime TD

P12 both events30.9%

If independent24.6%

At least one76.8%

Exactly one45.9%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

CAR at PHI · Qb Pass Receiver

Jalen Coker + Bryce Young

Jalen Coker anytime TD + Bryce Young passing TD

P12 both events41.3%

If independent35.1%

At least one82.7%

Exactly one41.4%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

PIT at NE · Qb Pass Receiver

DK Metcalf + Aaron Rodgers

DK Metcalf anytime TD + Aaron Rodgers passing TD

P12 both events22.6%

If independent16.4%

At least one68.7%

Exactly one46.0%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

DET at ARI · Qb Pass Receiver

Jacoby Brissett + Michael Wilson

Jacoby Brissett passing TD + Michael Wilson anytime TD

P12 both events30.3%

If independent24.2%

At least one76.8%

Exactly one46.5%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

MIA at LV · Qb Pass Receiver

Caleb Douglas + Malik Willis

Caleb Douglas anytime TD + Malik Willis passing TD

P12 both events18.5%

If independent12.4%

At least one62.0%

Exactly one43.5%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

MIN at CHI · Qb Pass Receiver

Jauan Jennings + Kyler Murray

Jauan Jennings anytime TD + Kyler Murray passing TD

P12 both events28.4%

If independent22.3%

At least one75.3%

Exactly one46.9%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

LAC at SEA · Qb Pass Receiver

Sam Darnold + Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Sam Darnold passing TD + Jaxon Smith-Njigba anytime TD

P12 both events28.4%

If independent22.3%

At least one75.3%

Exactly one46.9%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

TEN at IND · Qb Pass Receiver

Josh Downs + Daniel Jones

Josh Downs anytime TD + Daniel Jones passing TD

P12 both events19.5%

If independent13.4%

At least one64.1%

Exactly one44.6%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

CLE at TB · Qb Pass Receiver

Denzel Boston + Deshaun Watson

Denzel Boston anytime TD + Deshaun Watson passing TD

P12 both events24.8%

If independent18.7%

At least one71.9%

Exactly one47.1%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

PIT at CLE · Qb Pass Receiver

Denzel Boston + Deshaun Watson

Denzel Boston anytime TD + Deshaun Watson passing TD

P12 both events23.4%

If independent17.3%

At least one70.3%

Exactly one46.9%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

LAC at KC · Qb Pass Receiver

Justin Herbert + Quentin Johnston

Justin Herbert passing TD + Quentin Johnston anytime TD

P12 both events23.7%

If independent17.6%

At least one70.6%

Exactly one47.0%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

DEN at LAC · Qb Pass Receiver

Bo Nix + Jaylen Waddle

Bo Nix passing TD + Jaylen Waddle anytime TD

P12 both events23.9%

If independent17.8%

At least one71.0%

Exactly one47.0%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

ATL at PIT · Qb Pass Receiver

Michael Pittman Jr. + Aaron Rodgers

Michael Pittman Jr. anytime TD + Aaron Rodgers passing TD

P12 both events21.4%

If independent15.3%

At least one67.6%

Exactly one46.2%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

LV at NE · Qb Pass Receiver

Romeo Doubs + Drake Maye

Romeo Doubs anytime TD + Drake Maye passing TD

P12 both events21.9%

If independent15.8%

At least one68.3%

Exactly one46.4%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

BAL at IND · Qb Pass Receiver

Lamar Jackson + Devontez Walker

Lamar Jackson passing TD + Devontez Walker anytime TD

P12 both events21.3%

If independent15.3%

At least one67.8%

Exactly one46.4%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

TEN at IND · Qb Pass Receiver

Carnell Tate + Cam Ward

Carnell Tate anytime TD + Cam Ward passing TD

P12 both events25.0%

If independent19.0%

At least one72.6%

Exactly one47.5%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

PIT at TB · Qb Pass Receiver

Ted Hurst III + Baker Mayfield

Ted Hurst III anytime TD + Baker Mayfield passing TD

P12 both events22.5%

If independent16.5%

At least one69.5%

Exactly one47.0%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

CAR at ATL · Qb Pass Receiver

Tetairoa McMillan + Bryce Young

Tetairoa McMillan anytime TD + Bryce Young passing TD

P12 both events31.7%

If independent25.7%

At least one78.5%

Exactly one46.8%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

P12 preserves each accepted P10 marginal through a historically selected bivariate dependence contract. It does not align independent P10 draw indices, multiply marginals as production truth, use sportsbook prices, or imply a betting recommendation.