PardonMe NFL Research

Week 1 Touchdown Connections

Correlation-aware touchdown research from independent P10 marginals and historically validated football relationships.

80 comparisons

P12 probabilities · no sportsbook input

Market

Position

NE at SEA · Qb Pass Receiver

Sam Darnold + Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Sam Darnold passing TD + Jaxon Smith-Njigba anytime TD

P12 both events39.5%

If independent29.7%

At least one71.7%

Exactly one32.2%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

NO at DET · Qb Pass Receiver

Chris Olave + Tyler Shough

Chris Olave anytime TD + Tyler Shough passing TD

P12 both events32.7%

If independent24.0%

At least one69.5%

Exactly one36.8%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

DAL at NYG · Qb Pass Receiver

Jaxson Dart + Malik Nabers

Jaxson Dart passing TD + Malik Nabers anytime TD

P12 both events29.7%

If independent21.5%

At least one68.5%

Exactly one38.8%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

GB at MIN · Qb Pass Receiver

Jauan Jennings + Kyler Murray

Jauan Jennings anytime TD + Kyler Murray passing TD

P12 both events32.8%

If independent24.8%

At least one72.3%

Exactly one39.5%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

DEN at KC · Qb Pass Receiver

Patrick Mahomes + Rashee Rice

Patrick Mahomes passing TD + Rashee Rice anytime TD

P12 both events35.7%

If independent27.7%

At least one74.5%

Exactly one38.8%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

DEN at KC · Qb Pass Receiver

Bo Nix + Jaylen Waddle

Bo Nix passing TD + Jaylen Waddle anytime TD

P12 both events27.4%

If independent19.4%

At least one66.8%

Exactly one39.5%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

BAL at IND · Qb Pass Receiver

Zay Flowers + Lamar Jackson

Zay Flowers anytime TD + Lamar Jackson passing TD

P12 both events28.5%

If independent20.7%

At least one68.8%

Exactly one40.3%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

CHI at CAR · Qb Pass Receiver

Tetairoa McMillan + Bryce Young

Tetairoa McMillan anytime TD + Bryce Young passing TD

P12 both events31.6%

If independent23.9%

At least one72.1%

Exactly one40.5%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

NO at DET · Qb Pass Receiver

Tyler Shough + Devaughn Vele

Tyler Shough passing TD + Devaughn Vele anytime TD

P12 both events28.0%

If independent20.3%

At least one68.6%

Exactly one40.6%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

ATL at PIT · Qb Pass Receiver

Drake London + Michael Penix Jr.

Drake London anytime TD + Michael Penix Jr. passing TD

P12 both events30.5%

If independent22.8%

At least one71.2%

Exactly one40.7%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

DEN at KC · Qb Pass Receiver

Bo Nix + Courtland Sutton

Bo Nix passing TD + Courtland Sutton anytime TD

P12 both events25.2%

If independent17.8%

At least one66.5%

Exactly one41.2%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

CLE at JAX · Qb Pass Receiver

Harold Fannin Jr. + Deshaun Watson

Harold Fannin Jr. anytime TD + Deshaun Watson passing TD

P12 both events31.4%

If independent24.0%

At least one73.0%

Exactly one41.7%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

PIT at NE · Qb Pass Receiver

Aaron Rodgers + Roman Wilson

Aaron Rodgers passing TD + Roman Wilson anytime TD

P12 both events26.9%

If independent19.7%

At least one69.3%

Exactly one42.4%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

SEA at ARI · Qb Pass Receiver

Sam Darnold + Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Sam Darnold passing TD + Jaxon Smith-Njigba anytime TD

P12 both events29.3%

If independent22.1%

At least one72.1%

Exactly one42.8%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

WAS at PHI · Qb Pass Receiver

Jayden Daniels + Stefon Diggs

Jayden Daniels passing TD + Stefon Diggs anytime TD

P12 both events27.5%

If independent20.4%

At least one70.5%

Exactly one43.0%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

ATL at PIT · Qb Pass Receiver

DK Metcalf + Aaron Rodgers

DK Metcalf anytime TD + Aaron Rodgers passing TD

P12 both events25.3%

If independent18.3%

At least one68.1%

Exactly one42.8%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

NYJ at TEN · Qb Pass Receiver

Geno Smith + Garrett Wilson

Geno Smith passing TD + Garrett Wilson anytime TD

P12 both events34.6%

If independent27.7%

At least one77.3%

Exactly one42.7%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

TB at CIN · Qb Pass Receiver

Baker Mayfield + Jalen McMillan

Baker Mayfield passing TD + Jalen McMillan anytime TD

P12 both events32.8%

If independent26.1%

At least one76.6%

Exactly one43.8%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

DAL at NYG · Qb Pass Receiver

Jaxson Dart + Theo Johnson

Jaxson Dart passing TD + Theo Johnson anytime TD

P12 both events23.4%

If independent16.7%

At least one67.5%

Exactly one44.1%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

ARI at LAC · Qb Pass Receiver

Justin Herbert + Quentin Johnston

Justin Herbert passing TD + Quentin Johnston anytime TD

P12 both events29.3%

If independent22.7%

At least one74.3%

Exactly one45.1%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

WAS at PHI · Qb Pass Receiver

Dallas Goedert + Jalen Hurts

Dallas Goedert anytime TD + Jalen Hurts passing TD

P12 both events27.3%

If independent20.7%

At least one72.6%

Exactly one45.3%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

ARI at LAC · Qb Pass Receiver

Jacoby Brissett + Trey McBride

Jacoby Brissett passing TD + Trey McBride anytime TD

P12 both events34.1%

If independent27.6%

At least one78.1%

Exactly one44.0%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

NO at BAL · Qb Pass Receiver

Chris Olave + Tyler Shough

Chris Olave anytime TD + Tyler Shough passing TD

P12 both events26.0%

If independent19.5%

At least one71.4%

Exactly one45.4%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

WAS at PHI · Qb Pass Receiver

Jayden Daniels + Terry McLaurin

Jayden Daniels passing TD + Terry McLaurin anytime TD

P12 both events24.7%

If independent18.2%

At least one70.1%

Exactly one45.5%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

DET at BUF · Qb Pass Receiver

Jared Goff + Isaac TeSlaa

Jared Goff passing TD + Isaac TeSlaa anytime TD

P12 both events32.7%

If independent26.3%

At least one77.5%

Exactly one44.8%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

CLE at TB · Qb Pass Receiver

Baker Mayfield + Jalen McMillan

Baker Mayfield passing TD + Jalen McMillan anytime TD

P12 both events32.3%

If independent25.9%

At least one77.3%

Exactly one45.0%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

NO at BAL · Qb Pass Receiver

Tyler Shough + Devaughn Vele

Tyler Shough passing TD + Devaughn Vele anytime TD

P12 both events25.5%

If independent19.1%

At least one71.3%

Exactly one45.8%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

GB at MIN · Qb Pass Receiver

Jordan Love + Christian Watson

Jordan Love passing TD + Christian Watson anytime TD

P12 both events30.9%

If independent24.6%

At least one76.8%

Exactly one45.9%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

ATL at PIT · Qb Pass Receiver

Pat Freiermuth + Aaron Rodgers

Pat Freiermuth anytime TD + Aaron Rodgers passing TD

P12 both events21.9%

If independent15.7%

At least one67.7%

Exactly one45.7%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

PIT at NE · Qb Pass Receiver

DK Metcalf + Aaron Rodgers

DK Metcalf anytime TD + Aaron Rodgers passing TD

P12 both events22.6%

If independent16.4%

At least one68.7%

Exactly one46.0%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

MIA at LV · Qb Pass Receiver

Caleb Douglas + Malik Willis

Caleb Douglas anytime TD + Malik Willis passing TD

P12 both events18.5%

If independent12.4%

At least one62.0%

Exactly one43.5%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

BAL at IND · Qb Pass Receiver

Mark Andrews + Lamar Jackson

Mark Andrews anytime TD + Lamar Jackson passing TD

P12 both events21.8%

If independent15.7%

At least one67.8%

Exactly one46.0%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

MIN at CHI · Qb Pass Receiver

Jauan Jennings + Kyler Murray

Jauan Jennings anytime TD + Kyler Murray passing TD

P12 both events28.4%

If independent22.3%

At least one75.3%

Exactly one46.9%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

CLE at TB · Qb Pass Receiver

Denzel Boston + Deshaun Watson

Denzel Boston anytime TD + Deshaun Watson passing TD

P12 both events24.8%

If independent18.7%

At least one71.9%

Exactly one47.1%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

ATL at PIT · Qb Pass Receiver

Michael Pittman Jr. + Aaron Rodgers

Michael Pittman Jr. anytime TD + Aaron Rodgers passing TD

P12 both events21.4%

If independent15.3%

At least one67.6%

Exactly one46.2%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

BAL at IND · Qb Pass Receiver

Lamar Jackson + Devontez Walker

Lamar Jackson passing TD + Devontez Walker anytime TD

P12 both events21.3%

If independent15.3%

At least one67.8%

Exactly one46.4%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

CAR at ATL · Qb Pass Receiver

Tetairoa McMillan + Bryce Young

Tetairoa McMillan anytime TD + Bryce Young passing TD

P12 both events31.7%

If independent25.7%

At least one78.5%

Exactly one46.8%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

BUF at HOU · Qb Pass Receiver

Nico Collins + C.J. Stroud

Nico Collins anytime TD + C.J. Stroud passing TD

P12 both events22.7%

If independent16.8%

At least one70.2%

Exactly one47.5%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

MIA at LV · Qb Pass Receiver

Greg Dulcich + Malik Willis

Greg Dulcich anytime TD + Malik Willis passing TD

P12 both events17.7%

If independent11.8%

At least one61.8%

Exactly one44.2%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

MIA at LV · Qb Pass Receiver

Malik Washington + Malik Willis

Malik Washington anytime TD + Malik Willis passing TD

P12 both events17.6%

If independent11.7%

At least one61.8%

Exactly one44.2%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

NE at SEA · Qb Pass Receiver

AJ Barner + Sam Darnold

AJ Barner anytime TD + Sam Darnold passing TD

P12 both events21.2%

If independent15.3%

At least one68.4%

Exactly one47.2%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

MIA at LV · Qb Pass Receiver

Brock Bowers + Kirk Cousins

Brock Bowers anytime TD + Kirk Cousins passing TD

P12 both events26.0%

If independent20.1%

At least one74.2%

Exactly one48.2%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

TB at CIN · Qb Pass Receiver

Joe Burrow + Tee Higgins

Joe Burrow passing TD + Tee Higgins anytime TD

P12 both events34.4%

If independent28.5%

At least one80.6%

Exactly one46.2%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

CHI at CAR · Qb Pass Receiver

Jalen Coker + Bryce Young

Jalen Coker anytime TD + Bryce Young passing TD

P12 both events22.9%

If independent17.1%

At least one71.0%

Exactly one48.0%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

GB at NYJ · Qb Pass Receiver

Geno Smith + Garrett Wilson

Geno Smith passing TD + Garrett Wilson anytime TD

P12 both events30.3%

If independent24.6%

At least one78.4%

Exactly one48.0%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

JAX at DEN · Qb Pass Receiver

Bo Nix + Jaylen Waddle

Bo Nix passing TD + Jaylen Waddle anytime TD

P12 both events22.1%

If independent16.4%

At least one70.4%

Exactly one48.3%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

WAS at PHI · Qb Pass Receiver

Jayden Daniels + Chig Okonkwo

Jayden Daniels passing TD + Chig Okonkwo anytime TD

P12 both events21.7%

If independent15.9%

At least one69.8%

Exactly one48.1%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

CHI at CAR · Qb Pass Receiver

Rome Odunze + Caleb Williams

Rome Odunze anytime TD + Caleb Williams passing TD

P12 both events31.6%

If independent25.9%

At least one79.3%

Exactly one47.7%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

BUF at HOU · Qb Pass Receiver

Josh Allen + DJ Moore

Josh Allen passing TD + DJ Moore anytime TD

P12 both events25.3%

If independent19.6%

At least one74.2%

Exactly one48.9%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

CAR at ATL · Qb Pass Receiver

Drake London + Tua Tagovailoa

Drake London anytime TD + Tua Tagovailoa passing TD

P12 both events23.6%

If independent17.9%

At least one72.4%

Exactly one48.9%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

IND at KC · Qb Pass Receiver

Patrick Mahomes + Tyquan Thornton

Patrick Mahomes passing TD + Tyquan Thornton anytime TD

P12 both events25.9%

If independent20.2%

At least one74.9%

Exactly one49.0%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

GB at NYJ · Qb Pass Receiver

Jordan Love + Christian Watson

Jordan Love passing TD + Christian Watson anytime TD

P12 both events27.7%

If independent22.1%

At least one76.6%

Exactly one48.9%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

WAS at PHI · Qb Pass Receiver

Jalen Hurts + DeVonta Smith

Jalen Hurts passing TD + DeVonta Smith anytime TD

P12 both events23.2%

If independent17.6%

At least one72.2%

Exactly one48.9%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

GB at MIN · Qb Pass Receiver

Tucker Kraft + Jordan Love

Tucker Kraft anytime TD + Jordan Love passing TD

P12 both events27.5%

If independent21.8%

At least one76.5%

Exactly one49.0%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

TB at CIN · Qb Pass Receiver

Joe Burrow + Ja'Marr Chase

Joe Burrow passing TD + Ja'Marr Chase anytime TD

P12 both events32.8%

If independent27.2%

At least one80.4%

Exactly one47.6%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

NO at DET · Qb Pass Receiver

Jared Goff + Jameson Williams

Jared Goff passing TD + Jameson Williams anytime TD

P12 both events30.2%

If independent24.6%

At least one78.8%

Exactly one48.5%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

NYJ at TEN · Qb Pass Receiver

Wan'Dale Robinson + Cam Ward

Wan'Dale Robinson anytime TD + Cam Ward passing TD

P12 both events23.0%

If independent17.4%

At least one72.1%

Exactly one49.1%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

NYG at LAR · Qb Pass Receiver

Jaxson Dart + Malik Nabers

Jaxson Dart passing TD + Malik Nabers anytime TD

P12 both events23.4%

If independent17.8%

At least one72.6%

Exactly one49.2%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

DEN at KC · Qb Pass Receiver

Travis Kelce + Patrick Mahomes

Travis Kelce anytime TD + Patrick Mahomes passing TD

P12 both events23.6%

If independent18.0%

At least one73.0%

Exactly one49.4%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

NE at SEA · Qb Pass Receiver

A.J. Brown + Drake Maye

A.J. Brown anytime TD + Drake Maye passing TD

P12 both events32.9%

If independent27.4%

At least one80.7%

Exactly one47.7%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

WAS at DAL · Qb Pass Receiver

Jayden Daniels + Stefon Diggs

Jayden Daniels passing TD + Stefon Diggs anytime TD

P12 both events27.9%

If independent22.4%

At least one77.3%

Exactly one49.4%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

CIN at HOU · Qb Pass Receiver

Joe Burrow + Tee Higgins

Joe Burrow passing TD + Tee Higgins anytime TD

P12 both events31.6%

If independent26.0%

At least one79.9%

Exactly one48.4%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

NO at DET · Qb Pass Receiver

Jared Goff + Amon-Ra St. Brown

Jared Goff passing TD + Amon-Ra St. Brown anytime TD

P12 both events29.6%

If independent24.1%

At least one78.7%

Exactly one49.1%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

NE at SEA · Qb Pass Receiver

Sam Darnold + Cooper Kupp

Sam Darnold passing TD + Cooper Kupp anytime TD

P12 both events19.8%

If independent14.3%

At least one68.2%

Exactly one48.4%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

GB at MIN · Qb Pass Receiver

Jordan Love + Jayden Reed

Jordan Love passing TD + Jayden Reed anytime TD

P12 both events26.6%

If independent21.1%

At least one76.4%

Exactly one49.8%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

DEN at KC · Qb Pass Receiver

Lil'Jordan Humphrey + Bo Nix

Lil'Jordan Humphrey anytime TD + Bo Nix passing TD

P12 both events18.2%

If independent12.7%

At least one65.4%

Exactly one47.3%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

LV at LAC · Qb Pass Receiver

Brock Bowers + Kirk Cousins

Brock Bowers anytime TD + Kirk Cousins passing TD

P12 both events26.1%

If independent20.7%

At least one76.3%

Exactly one50.2%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

JAX at DEN · Qb Pass Receiver

Bo Nix + Courtland Sutton

Bo Nix passing TD + Courtland Sutton anytime TD

P12 both events20.6%

If independent15.2%

At least one70.3%

Exactly one49.7%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

NO at DET · Qb Pass Receiver

Barion Brown + Tyler Shough

Barion Brown anytime TD + Tyler Shough passing TD

P12 both events18.7%

If independent13.4%

At least one67.3%

Exactly one48.6%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

LV at LAC · Qb Pass Receiver

Justin Herbert + Quentin Johnston

Justin Herbert passing TD + Quentin Johnston anytime TD

P12 both events28.7%

If independent23.4%

At least one78.7%

Exactly one50.1%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

TB at CIN · Qb Pass Receiver

Chris Godwin Jr. + Baker Mayfield

Chris Godwin Jr. anytime TD + Baker Mayfield passing TD

P12 both events25.1%

If independent19.8%

At least one75.8%

Exactly one50.7%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

ATL at PIT · Qb Pass Receiver

Aaron Rodgers + Roman Wilson

Aaron Rodgers passing TD + Roman Wilson anytime TD

P12 both events18.4%

If independent13.2%

At least one67.2%

Exactly one48.8%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

CLE at TB · Qb Pass Receiver

Jerry Jeudy + Deshaun Watson

Jerry Jeudy anytime TD + Deshaun Watson passing TD

P12 both events21.1%

If independent15.9%

At least one71.5%

Exactly one50.4%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

DAL at NYG · Qb Pass Receiver

George Pickens + Dak Prescott

George Pickens anytime TD + Dak Prescott passing TD

P12 both events27.6%

If independent22.4%

At least one78.2%

Exactly one50.6%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

NO at DET · Qb Pass Receiver

Jared Goff + Isaac TeSlaa

Jared Goff passing TD + Isaac TeSlaa anytime TD

P12 both events28.1%

If independent22.8%

At least one78.6%

Exactly one50.5%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

BUF at HOU · Qb Pass Receiver

Dalton Schultz + C.J. Stroud

Dalton Schultz anytime TD + C.J. Stroud passing TD

P12 both events19.9%

If independent14.7%

At least one69.9%

Exactly one50.0%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

DET at BUF · Qb Pass Receiver

Jared Goff + Jameson Williams

Jared Goff passing TD + Jameson Williams anytime TD

P12 both events25.9%

If independent20.6%

At least one76.9%

Exactly one51.0%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

BUF at HOU · Qb Pass Receiver

Josh Allen + Keon Coleman

Josh Allen passing TD + Keon Coleman anytime TD

P12 both events23.0%

If independent17.8%

At least one74.0%

Exactly one51.0%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

MIA at LV · Qb Pass Receiver

Jalen Tolbert + Malik Willis

Jalen Tolbert anytime TD + Malik Willis passing TD

P12 both events15.5%

If independent10.3%

At least one61.5%

Exactly one46.0%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

ATL at PIT · Qb Pass Receiver

Michael Penix Jr. + Kyle Pitts Sr.

Michael Penix Jr. passing TD + Kyle Pitts Sr. anytime TD

P12 both events19.7%

If independent14.5%

At least one69.8%

Exactly one50.1%

Positive · A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.

Open Matchup Lab

P12 preserves each accepted P10 marginal through a historically selected bivariate dependence contract. It does not align independent P10 draw indices, multiply marginals as production truth, use sportsbook prices, or imply a betting recommendation.