NFL player
Nate Boerkircher
Jacksonville Jaguars · TE · #87
Height6'5"
Weight250 lb
CollegeTexas A&M; Nebraska
Right now
RoleTE2Official depth chart
StatusUnknown
AvailabilityNo confirmed injury/status update yet.Unknown does not mean healthy or active.
SeasonProduction unavailable
PardonMe this weekvs CLE · Sun Sep 13 · 5:00 PM
Targets3.6
Receptions2.6
Rec yards26
TD chance17%
Full-PPR6.6
Baseline projection — 2025 production unavailable · Insufficient Evidence · Full-PPR range 0.4–12.8
Today
Matchupvs CLE · Not yet available
Role and prior workload— · backward-looking, not a starter or share inference
Projected targets3.6
ProjectionBaseline projection — 2025 production unavailable · Insufficient Evidence · 80% Full-PPR 0.4–12.8
Matchup explanation
Team pass defense is not a CB assignment, separation, man/zone matchup or individual defender grade. No target or workload effect is inferred. Pressure, individual coverage and replacement effects remain unavailable.
- Current Role
- State
- available
- Team Abbr
- JAX
- Depth Rank
- 2
- Position Code
- TE
- Depth Position
- TE
- Evidence Label
- current_2026_official_preseason_depth
- Roster Membership
- active
- Formal Roster Status
- active
- Source Manifest Hash
- 2b8d45ecfe41d34b1692afcbb6467e3928ae823bbb92d7bdfa63d18cc85a4365
- Prior Observed Role
- State
- unknown
- Game Id
- —
- Team Abbr
- —
- Depth Rank
- —
- Defense Pct
- —
- Offense Pct
- —
- Season Type
- —
- Season Year
- —
- Week Number
- —
- Derived Role
- —
- Starter State
- —
- Evidence Label
- no_prior_observed_role
- Special Teams Pct
- —
- Source Manifest Hash
- —
- Role Continuity Games
- —
- Context
- State
- supported
- Game Id
- 10525
- Position
- TE
- Role
- State
- supported_current_official_depth
- Label
- TE2
- Depth Rank
- 2
- Boundary
- Official depth is role context; it does not establish starter status, snap share or workload share.
- Availability
- State
- not_yet_available
- Headline
- —
- Boundary
- Unknown, not-yet-available and reserve-unknown are not healthy, active, available or reduced-usage conclusions.
- Prior Role
- State
- unknown
- Offense Pct
- —
- Derived Role
- —
- Evidence Label
- no_prior_observed_role
- Boundary
- Backward-looking observed workload does not establish current workload or starter status.
- Projection
- Basis
- model_imputed_baseline
- Boundary
- P9 matchup environments explain context only and do not change the accepted P5 player projection.
- Unit
- Game Id
- 10525
- Offense Team Id
- 47
- Defense Team Id
- 40
- Offense Abbr
- JAX
- Defense Abbr
- CLE
- Pressure Json
- {"state": "unknown", "reason": "Retained nflverse player statistics include QB hits but not total pressure events; QB hits are not relabeled as pressures."}
- Sack Json
- {"edge": "defense", "state": "supported", "defense": {"rate": 0.09814814814814816, "sacks": 53.0, "opponent_dropbacks": 540.0, "league_rank_high_is_best": 3}, "offense": {"rate": 0.06788079470198675, "dropbacks": 604.0, "sacks_allowed": 41.0, "league_rank_low_is_best": 17}, "denominator": "QB dropbacks = pass attempts + sacks suffered", "league_medians": {"defense_sack_rate": 0.06745662047280773, "offense_sack_rate": 0.06683513419309864}}
- Run Json
- {"edge": "defense", "state": "supported", "defense": {"opponent_carries": 475.0, "opponent_rush_yards": 1979.0, "league_rank_low_is_best": 10, "yards_per_carry_allowed": 4.166315789473685}, "offense": {"carries": 489.0, "rush_yards": 1956.0, "yards_per_carry": 4.0, "league_rank_high_is_best": 27}, "denominator": "Retained player carries; rushing yards divided by carries", "league_medians": {"offense_yards_per_carry": 4.319816463259086, "defense_yards_per_carry_allowed": 4.29079863438525}}
- Sample Basis
- 2025 REG nflverse weekly player statistics; full retained team schedule
- Provenance Json
- {"table": "pardonme_warehouse.nfl_player_week_statistics", "season": 2025, "provider": "nflverse", "season_type": "REG", "source_hash": "661f41cb9dcc7fbd4b5e3e0f755f47ddda7599d15c2fe2b39f29910e4115deac"}
- Missingness Json
- {"pressure_rate": "unknown_total_pressure_events_not_retained", "individual_ol_assignments": "unknown", "current_replacement_effect": "unknown_not_inferred_from_depth_or_availability", "pressures_allowed_by_lineman": "unknown"}
- Confidence
- supported_prior_season_team_aggregate
- Explanation
- JAX protection allowed 41.0 sacks on 604 dropbacks (6.8%, league rank 17/32 with low rate best); CLE produced 53.0 sacks on 540 opponent dropbacks (9.8%, rank 3/32 with high rate best). On the ground, JAX averaged 4.00 yards per carry and CLE allowed 4.17. Pressure rate remains Unknown because total pressure events are not retained.
- Contract Version
- nfl_unit_matchup_p9a_v1
- Content Hash
- 2173df5671efa038c478701af49c1f83be9d3a5a26e81b86f21dcf6fe16486a6
- Derived At
- 2026-08-24 19:05:02
- Published At
- 2026-08-24 19:05:02
- Pressure
- State
- unknown
- Reason
- Retained nflverse player statistics include QB hits but not total pressure events; QB hits are not relabeled as pressures.
- Sack
- Edge
- defense
- State
- supported
- Defense
- Rate
- 0.098148148148148
- Sacks
- 53
- Opponent Dropbacks
- 540
- League Rank High Is Best
- 3
- Offense
- Rate
- 0.067880794701987
- Dropbacks
- 604
- Sacks Allowed
- 41
- League Rank Low Is Best
- 17
- Denominator
- QB dropbacks = pass attempts + sacks suffered
- League Medians
- Defense Sack Rate
- 0.067456620472808
- Offense Sack Rate
- 0.066835134193099
- Run
- Edge
- defense
- State
- supported
- Defense
- Opponent Carries
- 475
- Opponent Rush Yards
- 1979
- League Rank Low Is Best
- 10
- Yards Per Carry Allowed
- 4.1663157894737
- Offense
- Carries
- 489
- Rush Yards
- 1956
- Yards Per Carry
- 4
- League Rank High Is Best
- 27
- Denominator
- Retained player carries; rushing yards divided by carries
- League Medians
- Offense Yards Per Carry
- 4.3198164632591
- Defense Yards Per Carry Allowed
- 4.2907986343852
- Provenance
- Table
- pardonme_warehouse.nfl_player_week_statistics
- Season
- 2025
- Provider
- nflverse
- Season Type
- REG
- Source Hash
- 661f41cb9dcc7fbd4b5e3e0f755f47ddda7599d15c2fe2b39f29910e4115deac
- Missingness
- Pressure Rate
- unknown_total_pressure_events_not_retained
- Individual Ol Assignments
- unknown
- Current Replacement Effect
- unknown_not_inferred_from_depth_or_availability
- Pressures Allowed By Lineman
- unknown
- Passing
- Game Id
- 10525
- Offense Team Id
- 47
- Defense Team Id
- 40
- Offense Abbr
- JAX
- Defense Abbr
- CLE
- Completion Json
- {"edge": "defense", "state": "supported", "defense": {"value": 0.6324435318275154, "numerator": 308.0, "league_rank": 11, "opponent_attempts": 487.0}, "offense": {"value": 0.61101243339254, "attempts": 563.0, "numerator": 344.0, "league_rank": 27}, "denominator": "completions / pass attempts", "league_teams": 32, "league_medians": {"defense": 0.6470757053954443, "offense": 0.6443706063268893}}
- Efficiency Json
- {"edge": "mixed", "state": "supported", "defense": {"value": 6.611909650924025, "numerator": 3220.0, "league_rank": 9, "opponent_attempts": 487.0}, "offense": {"value": 7.150976909413854, "attempts": 563.0, "numerator": 4026.0, "league_rank": 11}, "denominator": "passing yards / pass attempts", "league_teams": 32, "league_medians": {"defense": 7.041235616438357, "offense": 6.941278879916052}}
- Touchdown Json
- {"edge": "offense", "state": "supported", "defense": {"value": 0.0513347022587269, "numerator": 25.0, "league_rank": 22, "opponent_attempts": 487.0}, "offense": {"value": 0.05150976909413854, "attempts": 563.0, "numerator": 29.0, "league_rank": 11}, "denominator": "passing touchdowns / pass attempts", "league_teams": 32, "league_medians": {"defense": 0.04644643781266172, "offense": 0.04659846191321293}}
- Interception Json
- {"edge": "defense", "state": "supported", "defense": {"value": 0.022587268993839837, "numerator": 11.0, "league_rank": 14, "opponent_attempts": 487.0}, "offense": {"value": 0.02131438721136767, "attempts": 563.0, "numerator": 12.0, "league_rank": 19}, "denominator": "passing interceptions / pass attempts", "league_teams": 32, "league_medians": {"defense": 0.02121271115370792, "offense": 0.02025329436496949}}
- Explosive Json
- {"edge": "mixed", "state": "supported", "defense": {"value": 0.08829568788501027, "numerator": 43.0, "league_rank": 15, "opponent_attempts": 487.0}, "offense": {"value": 0.10124333925399644, "attempts": 563.0, "numerator": 57.0, "league_rank": 9}, "denominator": "retained nflverse 20+ yard passing plays / pass attempts", "league_teams": 32, "league_medians": {"defense": 0.08874977674584747, "offense": 0.08576318929598403}}
- Advanced Json
- {"epa": "unknown_incomplete_and_aggregation_semantics_not_governed", "cpoe": "unknown_incomplete_and_aggregation_semantics_not_governed", "state": "unknown", "reason": "EPA/CPOE are activity-dependent and incomplete in retained rows; success rate and 2025 REG PBP are not retained.", "success_rate": "unknown_not_retained_in_2025_weekly_player_facts"}
- Coverage Json
- {"man_zone_rate": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence", "cb_wr_assignment": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence", "separation_allowed": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence", "target_specific_coverage": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence", "individual_defender_grade": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence"}
- Sample Basis
- 2025 REG nflverse weekly player statistics; full retained team schedule
- Provenance Json
- {"table": "pardonme_warehouse.nfl_player_week_statistics", "season": 2025, "provider": "nflverse", "season_type": "REG", "source_hash": "661f41cb9dcc7fbd4b5e3e0f755f47ddda7599d15c2fe2b39f29910e4115deac"}
- Missingness Json
- {"advanced": {"epa": "unknown_incomplete_and_aggregation_semantics_not_governed", "cpoe": "unknown_incomplete_and_aggregation_semantics_not_governed", "state": "unknown", "reason": "EPA/CPOE are activity-dependent and incomplete in retained rows; success rate and 2025 REG PBP are not retained.", "success_rate": "unknown_not_retained_in_2025_weekly_player_facts"}, "coverage": {"man_zone_rate": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence", "cb_wr_assignment": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence", "separation_allowed": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence", "target_specific_coverage": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence", "individual_defender_grade": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence"}}
- Confidence
- supported_prior_season_team_passing_aggregate
- Explanation
- completion: CLE pass-defense advantage; efficiency: mixed evidence; touchdown: JAX passing-offense advantage; interception: CLE pass-defense advantage; explosive: mixed evidence.
- Contract Version
- nfl_passing_matchup_p9c_v1
- Content Hash
- d82e9415fc06a31cb3690a77a45cacfef9dfca743497197b3fc45e7fdb5e02d4
- Derived At
- 2026-08-25 05:06:49
- Published At
- 2026-08-25 05:06:49
- Completion
- Edge
- defense
- State
- supported
- Defense
- Value
- 0.63244353182752
- Numerator
- 308
- League Rank
- 11
- Opponent Attempts
- 487
- Offense
- Value
- 0.61101243339254
- Attempts
- 563
- Numerator
- 344
- League Rank
- 27
- Denominator
- completions / pass attempts
- League Teams
- 32
- League Medians
- Defense
- 0.64707570539544
- Offense
- 0.64437060632689
- Efficiency
- Edge
- mixed
- State
- supported
- Defense
- Value
- 6.611909650924
- Numerator
- 3220
- League Rank
- 9
- Opponent Attempts
- 487
- Offense
- Value
- 7.1509769094139
- Attempts
- 563
- Numerator
- 4026
- League Rank
- 11
- Denominator
- passing yards / pass attempts
- League Teams
- 32
- League Medians
- Defense
- 7.0412356164384
- Offense
- 6.9412788799161
- Touchdown
- Edge
- offense
- State
- supported
- Defense
- Value
- 0.051334702258727
- Numerator
- 25
- League Rank
- 22
- Opponent Attempts
- 487
- Offense
- Value
- 0.051509769094139
- Attempts
- 563
- Numerator
- 29
- League Rank
- 11
- Denominator
- passing touchdowns / pass attempts
- League Teams
- 32
- League Medians
- Defense
- 0.046446437812662
- Offense
- 0.046598461913213
- Interception
- Edge
- defense
- State
- supported
- Defense
- Value
- 0.02258726899384
- Numerator
- 11
- League Rank
- 14
- Opponent Attempts
- 487
- Offense
- Value
- 0.021314387211368
- Attempts
- 563
- Numerator
- 12
- League Rank
- 19
- Denominator
- passing interceptions / pass attempts
- League Teams
- 32
- League Medians
- Defense
- 0.021212711153708
- Offense
- 0.020253294364969
- Explosive
- Edge
- mixed
- State
- supported
- Defense
- Value
- 0.08829568788501
- Numerator
- 43
- League Rank
- 15
- Opponent Attempts
- 487
- Offense
- Value
- 0.101243339254
- Attempts
- 563
- Numerator
- 57
- League Rank
- 9
- Denominator
- retained nflverse 20+ yard passing plays / pass attempts
- League Teams
- 32
- League Medians
- Defense
- 0.088749776745847
- Offense
- 0.085763189295984
- Advanced
- Epa
- unknown_incomplete_and_aggregation_semantics_not_governed
- Cpoe
- unknown_incomplete_and_aggregation_semantics_not_governed
- State
- unknown
- Reason
- EPA/CPOE are activity-dependent and incomplete in retained rows; success rate and 2025 REG PBP are not retained.
- Success Rate
- unknown_not_retained_in_2025_weekly_player_facts
- Coverage
- Man Zone Rate
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Cb Wr Assignment
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Separation Allowed
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Target Specific Coverage
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Individual Defender Grade
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Provenance
- Table
- pardonme_warehouse.nfl_player_week_statistics
- Season
- 2025
- Provider
- nflverse
- Season Type
- REG
- Source Hash
- 661f41cb9dcc7fbd4b5e3e0f755f47ddda7599d15c2fe2b39f29910e4115deac
- Missingness
- Advanced
- Epa
- unknown_incomplete_and_aggregation_semantics_not_governed
- Cpoe
- unknown_incomplete_and_aggregation_semantics_not_governed
- State
- unknown
- Reason
- EPA/CPOE are activity-dependent and incomplete in retained rows; success rate and 2025 REG PBP are not retained.
- Success Rate
- unknown_not_retained_in_2025_weekly_player_facts
- Coverage
- Man Zone Rate
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Cb Wr Assignment
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Separation Allowed
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Target Specific Coverage
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Individual Defender Grade
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Scoring Opportunity
- Player
- State
- unknown
- Reason
- No supported prior scoring-opportunity evidence
- Team Matchup
- State
- supported
- Sample
- Season
- 2025
- Season Type
- REG
- Defense Games
- 17
- Offense Games
- 16
- Offense
- Red Zone Plays
- State
- supported
- Value
- —
- Numerator
- 203
- Denominator
- —
- Description
- Pass or rush attempts at the opponent 20 or closer
- Red Zone Trips
- State
- supported
- Value
- —
- Numerator
- 68
- Denominator
- —
- Description
- Distinct 2025 REG drives with an offensive scrimmage play at the opponent 20 or closer
- Goal To Go Trips
- State
- supported
- Value
- 0.51470588235294
- Numerator
- 35
- Denominator
- 68
- Description
- Red-zone trips containing a source-flagged goal-to-go play
- Red Zone Td Conversion
- State
- supported
- Value
- 0.63235294117647
- Numerator
- 43
- Denominator
- 68
- Description
- Red-zone trips containing a passing or rushing touchdown
- Subject
- team_direction
- Boundary
- Prior observed team scoring-opportunity environment only; no 2026 role or touchdown probability is inferred.
- Provenance
- Dataset
- play_by_play_2025.csv.gz
- Provider
- nflverse
- Source Url
- https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2025.csv.gz
- Source Hash
- 2f135887790a013fd004e609e37096bb4816d5cc80b9f19122e1bad478961978
- Defense Abbr
- CLE
- Offense Abbr
- JAX
- Defense Allowed
- Red Zone Plays
- State
- supported
- Value
- —
- Numerator
- 141
- Denominator
- —
- Description
- Opponent pass or rush attempts at the 20 or closer
- Red Zone Trips
- State
- supported
- Value
- —
- Numerator
- 48
- Denominator
- —
- Description
- Distinct opponent red-zone drives allowed
- Goal To Go Trips
- State
- supported
- Value
- 0.5625
- Numerator
- 27
- Denominator
- 48
- Description
- Allowed red-zone trips containing a source-flagged goal-to-go play
- Red Zone Td Conversion
- State
- supported
- Value
- 0.58333333333333
- Numerator
- 28
- Denominator
- 48
- Description
- Allowed red-zone trips containing a passing or rushing touchdown
- Boundary
- Prior 2025 scoring-opportunity evidence is explanation only and does not change P5 or calculate touchdown probability.
- Individual Coverage
- unknown_team_environment_is_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Replacement Effect
- unknown_not_inferred_from_depth_or_availability
- Primary Context
- 0
- passing
- Broader Context
- 0
- sack
- Boundary
- Team pass defense is not a CB assignment, separation, man/zone matchup or individual defender grade. No target or workload effect is inferred.
Game environment
EverBank Stadium · Open Air · Grass · weather Supported
Outdoor weather-sensitive environment; supported forecast available.
Current touchdown outlook
17.1% anytime TD. Correlation is explanation only.
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 2
- Game Id
- 10542
- Player Id
- 1280
- Team Id
- 47
- Opponent Team Id
- 42
- Position Code
- TE
- Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Support State
- supported_anytime
- Projection State
- fallback
- Anytime Probability
- 0.1707000000
- Exactly One Probability
- 0.1510500000
- Two Plus Probability
- 0.0196500000
- Probability Json
- {"p_0": 0.8293, "p_1": 0.15105, "p_2_plus": 0.01965, "p_anytime": 0.1707, "multi_td_support": "supported"}
- Lineage Json
- {"p5_week_hash": "a2254ba8c0a3d262499ea5e2bb07d419b91aa632dd74faa1ca8d39f91285e627", "draw_contract": "P10 marginal summary only; cross-player draw indices are never aligned", "evidence_version": "nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1", "p10_content_hash": "8bd3ba09714e53c604c1707b71fba27a89ac33251fa1c958d731325d18982524", "p10_model_version": "nfl_p10c_wrte_empirical_v1", "selection_version": "nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1", "availability_state": "unknown", "joint_model_version": "nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1", "market_is_model_input": false}
- Content Hash
- 6d1759597ee42e70b5814a3a0e60e88299ec7ce10762c3a365722c1619d59d72
- Observed At
- 2026-09-17 23:48:31
- Generated At
- 2026-09-18 00:03:07
- Published At
- 2026-09-18 00:03:07
- Probability
- P 0
- 0.8293
- P 1
- 0.15105
- P 2 Plus
- 0.01965
- P Anytime
- 0.1707
- Multi Td Support
- supported
- Lineage
- P5 Week Hash
- a2254ba8c0a3d262499ea5e2bb07d419b91aa632dd74faa1ca8d39f91285e627
- Draw Contract
- P10 marginal summary only; cross-player draw indices are never aligned
- Evidence Version
- nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1
- P10 Content Hash
- 8bd3ba09714e53c604c1707b71fba27a89ac33251fa1c958d731325d18982524
- P10 Model Version
- nfl_p10c_wrte_empirical_v1
- Selection Version
- nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1
- Availability State
- unknown
- Joint Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Market Is Model Input
Touchdown Connections
Nate Boerkircher + Trevor Lawrence · Supported Empirical Dependence
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 2
- Game Id
- 10542
- Player A Id
- 1280
- Player B Id
- 1298
- Event A Kind
- scorer_td
- Event B Kind
- passing_td
- Relationship Class
- qb_pass_receiver
- Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Support State
- supported_empirical_dependence
- Projection State
- fallback
- Player A Probability
- 0.1707000000
- Player B Probability
- 0.8475000000
- Both Probability
- 0.1661889014
- Either Probability
- 0.8520110986
- Exactly One Probability
- 0.6858221972
- Neither Probability
- 0.1479889014
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.1960930990
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.9735729431
- Naive Probability
- 0.1446682500
- Absolute Difference
- 0.0215206514
- Relative Difference
- 0.1487586349
- Dependence Direction
- positive
- Probability Json
- {"p_a": 0.1707, "p_b": 0.8475, "both": 0.16618890138929038, "a_only": 0.004511098610709613, "b_only": 0.6813110986107096, "either": 0.8520110986107096, "neither": 0.14798890138929044, "simulation": {"seed": 1066253004, "draw_count": 20000, "simulated_both": 0.1655, "absolute_error_from_analytic": 0.0006889013892903695}, "exactly_one": 0.6858221972214192, "naive_independence": 0.14466825, "absolute_difference": 0.02152065138929038, "relative_difference": 0.14875863494091052, "dependence_direction": "positive", "conditional_a_given_b": 0.1960930989844134, "conditional_b_given_a": 0.9735729431124216}
- Explanation Json
- {"short": "A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.", "football_structure": "A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.", "dependence_direction": "positive"}
- Lineage Json
- {"p10_a": {"content_hash": "8bd3ba09714e53c604c1707b71fba27a89ac33251fa1c958d731325d18982524", "model_version": "nfl_p10c_wrte_empirical_v1"}, "p10_b": {"content_hash": "f8230ad321dd3e06ac2d7277bd67115ce39753d840f01cdec17d5bff2788f803", "model_version": "nfl_p10a_qb_signals_v1"}, "odds_ratio": 8.002089024495183, "pair_order": "ascending canonical player_id", "p5_week_hash": "d29eadad3b5c88c27d20fafd4be6fa1d5fbe0b44036b8dc0bd9f724b5849a09a", "evidence_version": "nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1", "selection_version": "nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1", "selected_candidate": "class_or_shrink_5000", "joint_model_version": "nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1", "market_is_model_input": false, "cross_player_p10_draw_alignment": "prohibited"}
- Content Hash
- 77c56856383df4b6f1537777f7e16fbdf9c2240fb3ff18b224d0963a1e47b232
- Observed At
- 2026-09-17 23:48:31
- Generated At
- 2026-09-18 00:03:07
- Published At
- 2026-09-18 00:03:07
- Player A Name
- Nate Boerkircher
- Player B Name
- Trevor Lawrence
- Probability
- P A
- 0.1707
- P B
- 0.8475
- Both
- 0.16618890138929
- A Only
- 0.0045110986107096
- B Only
- 0.68131109861071
- Either
- 0.85201109861071
- Neither
- 0.14798890138929
- Simulation
- Seed
- 1066253004
- Draw Count
- 20000
- Simulated Both
- 0.1655
- Absolute Error From Analytic
- 0.00068890138929037
- Exactly One
- 0.68582219722142
- Naive Independence
- 0.14466825
- Absolute Difference
- 0.02152065138929
- Relative Difference
- 0.14875863494091
- Dependence Direction
- positive
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.19609309898441
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.97357294311242
- Explanation
- Short
- A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.
- Football Structure
- A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.
- Dependence Direction
- positive
- Lineage
- P10 A
- Content Hash
- 8bd3ba09714e53c604c1707b71fba27a89ac33251fa1c958d731325d18982524
- Model Version
- nfl_p10c_wrte_empirical_v1
- P10 B
- Content Hash
- f8230ad321dd3e06ac2d7277bd67115ce39753d840f01cdec17d5bff2788f803
- Model Version
- nfl_p10a_qb_signals_v1
- Odds Ratio
- 8.0020890244952
- Pair Order
- ascending canonical player_id
- P5 Week Hash
- d29eadad3b5c88c27d20fafd4be6fa1d5fbe0b44036b8dc0bd9f724b5849a09a
- Evidence Version
- nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1
- Selection Version
- nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1
- Selected Candidate
- class_or_shrink_5000
- Joint Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Market Is Model Input
- Cross Player P10 Draw Alignment
- prohibited
Nate Boerkircher + Trevor Lawrence · Supported Empirical Dependence
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 1
- Game Id
- 10525
- Player A Id
- 1280
- Player B Id
- 1298
- Event A Kind
- scorer_td
- Event B Kind
- passing_td
- Relationship Class
- qb_pass_receiver
- Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Support State
- supported_empirical_dependence
- Projection State
- fallback
- Player A Probability
- 0.1675000000
- Player B Probability
- 0.8498000000
- Both Probability
- 0.1631681957
- Either Probability
- 0.8541318043
- Exactly One Probability
- 0.6909636086
- Neither Probability
- 0.1458681957
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.1920077615
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.9741384818
- Naive Probability
- 0.1423415000
- Absolute Difference
- 0.0208266957
- Relative Difference
- 0.1463149939
- Dependence Direction
- positive
- Probability Json
- {"p_a": 0.1675, "p_b": 0.8498, "both": 0.163168195702793, "a_only": 0.004331804297207004, "b_only": 0.686631804297207, "either": 0.854131804297207, "neither": 0.14586819570279286, "simulation": {"seed": 1064553004, "draw_count": 20000, "simulated_both": 0.16145, "absolute_error_from_analytic": 0.0017181957027929962}, "exactly_one": 0.6909636085944141, "naive_independence": 0.1423415, "absolute_difference": 0.020826695702792997, "relative_difference": 0.1463149938899969, "dependence_direction": "positive", "conditional_a_given_b": 0.1920077614765745, "conditional_b_given_a": 0.9741384818077192}
- Explanation Json
- {"short": "A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.", "football_structure": "A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.", "dependence_direction": "positive"}
- Lineage Json
- {"p10_a": {"content_hash": "a5f9ed095d2dc8a7d240fb0989e516df94fdf6da425e1d03207b09238aeb519e", "model_version": "nfl_p10c_wrte_empirical_v1"}, "p10_b": {"content_hash": "b1f8438ebe59e03f93e97b112af1d08248580a2228e9aa7b699e7a1d08ecec96", "model_version": "nfl_p10d_qb_empirical_v4"}, "odds_ratio": 8.002089024495183, "pair_order": "ascending canonical player_id", "p5_week_hash": "a2254ba8c0a3d262499ea5e2bb07d419b91aa632dd74faa1ca8d39f91285e627", "evidence_version": "nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1", "selection_version": "nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1", "selected_candidate": "class_or_shrink_5000", "joint_model_version": "nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1", "market_is_model_input": false, "cross_player_p10_draw_alignment": "prohibited"}
- Content Hash
- 1df0474bdee63dc237a95ce5e50c4636930ec3349076979708a3add747df8594
- Observed At
- 2026-09-01 23:59:00
- Generated At
- 2026-09-10 11:37:58
- Published At
- 2026-09-10 11:37:58
- Player A Name
- Nate Boerkircher
- Player B Name
- Trevor Lawrence
- Probability
- P A
- 0.1675
- P B
- 0.8498
- Both
- 0.16316819570279
- A Only
- 0.004331804297207
- B Only
- 0.68663180429721
- Either
- 0.85413180429721
- Neither
- 0.14586819570279
- Simulation
- Seed
- 1064553004
- Draw Count
- 20000
- Simulated Both
- 0.16145
- Absolute Error From Analytic
- 0.001718195702793
- Exactly One
- 0.69096360859441
- Naive Independence
- 0.1423415
- Absolute Difference
- 0.020826695702793
- Relative Difference
- 0.14631499389
- Dependence Direction
- positive
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.19200776147657
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.97413848180772
- Explanation
- Short
- A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.
- Football Structure
- A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.
- Dependence Direction
- positive
- Lineage
- P10 A
- Content Hash
- a5f9ed095d2dc8a7d240fb0989e516df94fdf6da425e1d03207b09238aeb519e
- Model Version
- nfl_p10c_wrte_empirical_v1
- P10 B
- Content Hash
- b1f8438ebe59e03f93e97b112af1d08248580a2228e9aa7b699e7a1d08ecec96
- Model Version
- nfl_p10d_qb_empirical_v4
- Odds Ratio
- 8.0020890244952
- Pair Order
- ascending canonical player_id
- P5 Week Hash
- a2254ba8c0a3d262499ea5e2bb07d419b91aa632dd74faa1ca8d39f91285e627
- Evidence Version
- nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1
- Selection Version
- nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1
- Selected Candidate
- class_or_shrink_5000
- Joint Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Market Is Model Input
- Cross Player P10 Draw Alignment
- prohibited
Nate Boerkircher + Chris Rodriguez Jr. · Supported Empirical Dependence
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 1
- Game Id
- 10525
- Player A Id
- 1280
- Player B Id
- 1312
- Event A Kind
- scorer_td
- Event B Kind
- scorer_td
- Relationship Class
- same_team_rb_te
- Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Support State
- supported_empirical_dependence
- Projection State
- fallback
- Player A Probability
- 0.1675000000
- Player B Probability
- 0.3374000000
- Both Probability
- 0.0524105689
- Either Probability
- 0.4524894311
- Exactly One Probability
- 0.4000788622
- Neither Probability
- 0.5475105689
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.1553366002
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.3128989189
- Naive Probability
- 0.0565145000
- Absolute Difference
- -0.0041039311
- Relative Difference
- -0.0726173122
- Dependence Direction
- approximately_neutral
- Probability Json
- {"p_a": 0.1675, "p_b": 0.3374, "both": 0.052410568908759995, "a_only": 0.11508943109124, "b_only": 0.28498943109124, "either": 0.45248943109124, "neither": 0.54751056890876, "simulation": {"seed": 1064553018, "draw_count": 20000, "simulated_both": 0.05355, "absolute_error_from_analytic": 0.001139431091240005}, "exactly_one": 0.40007886218248, "naive_independence": 0.0565145, "absolute_difference": -0.004103931091240007, "relative_difference": -0.07261731221615703, "dependence_direction": "approximately_neutral", "conditional_a_given_b": 0.15533660020379372, "conditional_b_given_a": 0.3128989188582686}
- Explanation Json
- {"short": "The back and tight end share team scoring states while competing for a finite touchdown allocation.", "football_structure": "The back and tight end share team scoring states while competing for a finite touchdown allocation.", "dependence_direction": "approximately_neutral"}
- Lineage Json
- {"p10_a": {"content_hash": "a5f9ed095d2dc8a7d240fb0989e516df94fdf6da425e1d03207b09238aeb519e", "model_version": "nfl_p10c_wrte_empirical_v1"}, "p10_b": {"content_hash": "801a11734ce486799ee8d9f0599624fe866128daf276df5386ec9c90cb190b58", "model_version": "nfl_p10b_rb_empirical_v3"}, "odds_ratio": 0.874877370604777, "pair_order": "ascending canonical player_id", "p5_week_hash": "a2254ba8c0a3d262499ea5e2bb07d419b91aa632dd74faa1ca8d39f91285e627", "evidence_version": "nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1", "selection_version": "nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1", "selected_candidate": "class_or_shrink_0", "joint_model_version": "nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1", "market_is_model_input": false, "cross_player_p10_draw_alignment": "prohibited"}
- Content Hash
- 770c28b6466f9b183cc866df60b7104c92c31ce2cb04e7e85f71e2996f73f926
- Observed At
- 2026-09-01 23:59:00
- Generated At
- 2026-09-10 11:37:58
- Published At
- 2026-09-10 11:37:58
- Player A Name
- Nate Boerkircher
- Player B Name
- Chris Rodriguez Jr.
- Probability
- P A
- 0.1675
- P B
- 0.3374
- Both
- 0.05241056890876
- A Only
- 0.11508943109124
- B Only
- 0.28498943109124
- Either
- 0.45248943109124
- Neither
- 0.54751056890876
- Simulation
- Seed
- 1064553018
- Draw Count
- 20000
- Simulated Both
- 0.05355
- Absolute Error From Analytic
- 0.00113943109124
- Exactly One
- 0.40007886218248
- Naive Independence
- 0.0565145
- Absolute Difference
- -0.00410393109124
- Relative Difference
- -0.072617312216157
- Dependence Direction
- approximately_neutral
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.15533660020379
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.31289891885827
- Explanation
- Short
- The back and tight end share team scoring states while competing for a finite touchdown allocation.
- Football Structure
- The back and tight end share team scoring states while competing for a finite touchdown allocation.
- Dependence Direction
- approximately_neutral
- Lineage
- P10 A
- Content Hash
- a5f9ed095d2dc8a7d240fb0989e516df94fdf6da425e1d03207b09238aeb519e
- Model Version
- nfl_p10c_wrte_empirical_v1
- P10 B
- Content Hash
- 801a11734ce486799ee8d9f0599624fe866128daf276df5386ec9c90cb190b58
- Model Version
- nfl_p10b_rb_empirical_v3
- Odds Ratio
- 0.87487737060478
- Pair Order
- ascending canonical player_id
- P5 Week Hash
- a2254ba8c0a3d262499ea5e2bb07d419b91aa632dd74faa1ca8d39f91285e627
- Evidence Version
- nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1
- Selection Version
- nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1
- Selected Candidate
- class_or_shrink_0
- Joint Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Market Is Model Input
- Cross Player P10 Draw Alignment
- prohibited
Nate Boerkircher + Chris Rodriguez Jr. · Supported Empirical Dependence
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 2
- Game Id
- 10542
- Player A Id
- 1280
- Player B Id
- 1312
- Event A Kind
- scorer_td
- Event B Kind
- scorer_td
- Relationship Class
- same_team_rb_te
- Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Support State
- supported_empirical_dependence
- Projection State
- fallback
- Player A Probability
- 0.1707000000
- Player B Probability
- 0.3155000000
- Both Probability
- 0.0498383756
- Either Probability
- 0.4363616244
- Exactly One Probability
- 0.3865232487
- Neither Probability
- 0.5636383756
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.1579663254
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.2919647080
- Naive Probability
- 0.0538558500
- Absolute Difference
- -0.0040174744
- Relative Difference
- -0.0745968052
- Dependence Direction
- approximately_neutral
- Probability Json
- {"p_a": 0.1707, "p_b": 0.3155, "both": 0.04983837564826383, "a_only": 0.12086162435173615, "b_only": 0.2656616243517362, "either": 0.4363616243517362, "neither": 0.5636383756482637, "simulation": {"seed": 1066253018, "draw_count": 20000, "simulated_both": 0.049, "absolute_error_from_analytic": 0.0008383756482638269}, "exactly_one": 0.3865232487034723, "naive_independence": 0.05385585, "absolute_difference": -0.004017474351736168, "relative_difference": -0.07459680520753396, "dependence_direction": "approximately_neutral", "conditional_a_given_b": 0.15796632535107394, "conditional_b_given_a": 0.291964707957023}
- Explanation Json
- {"short": "The back and tight end share team scoring states while competing for a finite touchdown allocation.", "football_structure": "The back and tight end share team scoring states while competing for a finite touchdown allocation.", "dependence_direction": "approximately_neutral"}
- Lineage Json
- {"p10_a": {"content_hash": "8bd3ba09714e53c604c1707b71fba27a89ac33251fa1c958d731325d18982524", "model_version": "nfl_p10c_wrte_empirical_v1"}, "p10_b": {"content_hash": "9d50116fb2b9394dd79f7d564e516ed5d54574c9c0d923c712f83c432d0a3242", "model_version": "nfl_p10b_rb_signals_v1"}, "odds_ratio": 0.874877370604777, "pair_order": "ascending canonical player_id", "p5_week_hash": "d29eadad3b5c88c27d20fafd4be6fa1d5fbe0b44036b8dc0bd9f724b5849a09a", "evidence_version": "nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1", "selection_version": "nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1", "selected_candidate": "class_or_shrink_0", "joint_model_version": "nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1", "market_is_model_input": false, "cross_player_p10_draw_alignment": "prohibited"}
- Content Hash
- dd7ff01481f59496760cbd4c7bee8cc6d30726ec6e42cafa3b82c99476c1dd62
- Observed At
- 2026-09-17 23:48:31
- Generated At
- 2026-09-18 00:03:07
- Published At
- 2026-09-18 00:03:07
- Player A Name
- Nate Boerkircher
- Player B Name
- Chris Rodriguez Jr.
- Probability
- P A
- 0.1707
- P B
- 0.3155
- Both
- 0.049838375648264
- A Only
- 0.12086162435174
- B Only
- 0.26566162435174
- Either
- 0.43636162435174
- Neither
- 0.56363837564826
- Simulation
- Seed
- 1066253018
- Draw Count
- 20000
- Simulated Both
- 0.049
- Absolute Error From Analytic
- 0.00083837564826383
- Exactly One
- 0.38652324870347
- Naive Independence
- 0.05385585
- Absolute Difference
- -0.0040174743517362
- Relative Difference
- -0.074596805207534
- Dependence Direction
- approximately_neutral
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.15796632535107
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.29196470795702
- Explanation
- Short
- The back and tight end share team scoring states while competing for a finite touchdown allocation.
- Football Structure
- The back and tight end share team scoring states while competing for a finite touchdown allocation.
- Dependence Direction
- approximately_neutral
- Lineage
- P10 A
- Content Hash
- 8bd3ba09714e53c604c1707b71fba27a89ac33251fa1c958d731325d18982524
- Model Version
- nfl_p10c_wrte_empirical_v1
- P10 B
- Content Hash
- 9d50116fb2b9394dd79f7d564e516ed5d54574c9c0d923c712f83c432d0a3242
- Model Version
- nfl_p10b_rb_signals_v1
- Odds Ratio
- 0.87487737060478
- Pair Order
- ascending canonical player_id
- P5 Week Hash
- d29eadad3b5c88c27d20fafd4be6fa1d5fbe0b44036b8dc0bd9f724b5849a09a
- Evidence Version
- nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1
- Selection Version
- nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1
- Selected Candidate
- class_or_shrink_0
- Joint Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Market Is Model Input
- Cross Player P10 Draw Alignment
- prohibited
Ameer Abdullah + Nate Boerkircher · Supported Empirical Dependence
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 2
- Game Id
- 10542
- Player A Id
- 1277
- Player B Id
- 1280
- Event A Kind
- scorer_td
- Event B Kind
- scorer_td
- Relationship Class
- same_team_rb_te
- Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Support State
- supported_empirical_dependence
- Projection State
- fallback
- Player A Probability
- 0.2852000000
- Player B Probability
- 0.1707000000
- Both Probability
- 0.0449012738
- Either Probability
- 0.4109987262
- Exactly One Probability
- 0.3660974524
- Neither Probability
- 0.5890012738
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.2630420257
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.1574378464
- Naive Probability
- 0.0486836400
- Absolute Difference
- -0.0037823662
- Relative Difference
- -0.0776927569
- Dependence Direction
- approximately_neutral
- Probability Json
- {"p_a": 0.2852, "p_b": 0.1707, "both": 0.04490127379425939, "a_only": 0.2402987262057406, "b_only": 0.1257987262057406, "either": 0.4109987262057406, "neither": 0.5890012737942595, "simulation": {"seed": 1066252893, "draw_count": 20000, "simulated_both": 0.0456, "absolute_error_from_analytic": 0.0006987262057406088}, "exactly_one": 0.3660974524114812, "naive_independence": 0.04868364, "absolute_difference": -0.0037823662057406074, "relative_difference": -0.07769275686330372, "dependence_direction": "approximately_neutral", "conditional_a_given_b": 0.2630420257425858, "conditional_b_given_a": 0.15743784640343406}
- Explanation Json
- {"short": "The back and tight end share team scoring states while competing for a finite touchdown allocation.", "football_structure": "The back and tight end share team scoring states while competing for a finite touchdown allocation.", "dependence_direction": "approximately_neutral"}
- Lineage Json
- {"p10_a": {"content_hash": "b92d76dea7575c98d877f9010adfbc3e9b8a0eea792301aa5873c20f0a0b4c35", "model_version": "nfl_p10b_rb_signals_v1"}, "p10_b": {"content_hash": "8bd3ba09714e53c604c1707b71fba27a89ac33251fa1c958d731325d18982524", "model_version": "nfl_p10c_wrte_empirical_v1"}, "odds_ratio": 0.874877370604777, "pair_order": "ascending canonical player_id", "p5_week_hash": "d29eadad3b5c88c27d20fafd4be6fa1d5fbe0b44036b8dc0bd9f724b5849a09a", "evidence_version": "nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1", "selection_version": "nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1", "selected_candidate": "class_or_shrink_0", "joint_model_version": "nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1", "market_is_model_input": false, "cross_player_p10_draw_alignment": "prohibited"}
- Content Hash
- 4b95db2fe4c063a50fa85b23ac9db373d0a9e035200d68d72b77b53eb64ff467
- Observed At
- 2026-09-17 23:48:31
- Generated At
- 2026-09-18 00:03:07
- Published At
- 2026-09-18 00:03:07
- Player A Name
- Ameer Abdullah
- Player B Name
- Nate Boerkircher
- Probability
- P A
- 0.2852
- P B
- 0.1707
- Both
- 0.044901273794259
- A Only
- 0.24029872620574
- B Only
- 0.12579872620574
- Either
- 0.41099872620574
- Neither
- 0.58900127379426
- Simulation
- Seed
- 1066252893
- Draw Count
- 20000
- Simulated Both
- 0.0456
- Absolute Error From Analytic
- 0.00069872620574061
- Exactly One
- 0.36609745241148
- Naive Independence
- 0.04868364
- Absolute Difference
- -0.0037823662057406
- Relative Difference
- -0.077692756863304
- Dependence Direction
- approximately_neutral
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.26304202574259
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.15743784640343
- Explanation
- Short
- The back and tight end share team scoring states while competing for a finite touchdown allocation.
- Football Structure
- The back and tight end share team scoring states while competing for a finite touchdown allocation.
- Dependence Direction
- approximately_neutral
- Lineage
- P10 A
- Content Hash
- b92d76dea7575c98d877f9010adfbc3e9b8a0eea792301aa5873c20f0a0b4c35
- Model Version
- nfl_p10b_rb_signals_v1
- P10 B
- Content Hash
- 8bd3ba09714e53c604c1707b71fba27a89ac33251fa1c958d731325d18982524
- Model Version
- nfl_p10c_wrte_empirical_v1
- Odds Ratio
- 0.87487737060478
- Pair Order
- ascending canonical player_id
- P5 Week Hash
- d29eadad3b5c88c27d20fafd4be6fa1d5fbe0b44036b8dc0bd9f724b5849a09a
- Evidence Version
- nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1
- Selection Version
- nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1
- Selected Candidate
- class_or_shrink_0
- Joint Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Market Is Model Input
- Cross Player P10 Draw Alignment
- prohibited
Ameer Abdullah + Nate Boerkircher · Supported Empirical Dependence
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 1
- Game Id
- 10525
- Player A Id
- 1277
- Player B Id
- 1280
- Event A Kind
- scorer_td
- Event B Kind
- scorer_td
- Relationship Class
- same_team_rb_te
- Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Support State
- supported_empirical_dependence
- Projection State
- fallback
- Player A Probability
- 0.1724500000
- Player B Probability
- 0.1675000000
- Both Probability
- 0.0263034198
- Either Probability
- 0.3136465802
- Exactly One Probability
- 0.2873431603
- Neither Probability
- 0.6863534198
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.1570353423
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.1525278042
- Naive Probability
- 0.0288853750
- Absolute Difference
- -0.0025819552
- Relative Difference
- -0.0893862438
- Dependence Direction
- approximately_neutral
- Probability Json
- {"p_a": 0.17245, "p_b": 0.1675, "both": 0.026303419828198105, "a_only": 0.14614658017180188, "b_only": 0.1411965801718019, "either": 0.3136465801718019, "neither": 0.6863534198281981, "simulation": {"seed": 1064552893, "draw_count": 20000, "simulated_both": 0.02605, "absolute_error_from_analytic": 0.0002534198281981051}, "exactly_one": 0.28734316034360374, "naive_independence": 0.028885375, "absolute_difference": -0.002581955171801896, "relative_difference": -0.08938624379298853, "dependence_direction": "approximately_neutral", "conditional_a_given_b": 0.1570353422578991, "conditional_b_given_a": 0.15252780416467443}
- Explanation Json
- {"short": "The back and tight end share team scoring states while competing for a finite touchdown allocation.", "football_structure": "The back and tight end share team scoring states while competing for a finite touchdown allocation.", "dependence_direction": "approximately_neutral"}
- Lineage Json
- {"p10_a": {"content_hash": "a49810f44c69d80390337558233011909356beaf4f2586a8d1fa00448c1ab8d4", "model_version": "nfl_p10b_rb_empirical_v3"}, "p10_b": {"content_hash": "a5f9ed095d2dc8a7d240fb0989e516df94fdf6da425e1d03207b09238aeb519e", "model_version": "nfl_p10c_wrte_empirical_v1"}, "odds_ratio": 0.874877370604777, "pair_order": "ascending canonical player_id", "p5_week_hash": "a2254ba8c0a3d262499ea5e2bb07d419b91aa632dd74faa1ca8d39f91285e627", "evidence_version": "nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1", "selection_version": "nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1", "selected_candidate": "class_or_shrink_0", "joint_model_version": "nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1", "market_is_model_input": false, "cross_player_p10_draw_alignment": "prohibited"}
- Content Hash
- 670c1406d415db56cbd58d8969fbeef4e8cba8cc05b5bcff133c9e333819769f
- Observed At
- 2026-09-01 23:59:00
- Generated At
- 2026-09-10 11:37:58
- Published At
- 2026-09-10 11:37:58
- Player A Name
- Ameer Abdullah
- Player B Name
- Nate Boerkircher
- Probability
- P A
- 0.17245
- P B
- 0.1675
- Both
- 0.026303419828198
- A Only
- 0.1461465801718
- B Only
- 0.1411965801718
- Either
- 0.3136465801718
- Neither
- 0.6863534198282
- Simulation
- Seed
- 1064552893
- Draw Count
- 20000
- Simulated Both
- 0.02605
- Absolute Error From Analytic
- 0.00025341982819811
- Exactly One
- 0.2873431603436
- Naive Independence
- 0.028885375
- Absolute Difference
- -0.0025819551718019
- Relative Difference
- -0.089386243792989
- Dependence Direction
- approximately_neutral
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.1570353422579
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.15252780416467
- Explanation
- Short
- The back and tight end share team scoring states while competing for a finite touchdown allocation.
- Football Structure
- The back and tight end share team scoring states while competing for a finite touchdown allocation.
- Dependence Direction
- approximately_neutral
- Lineage
- P10 A
- Content Hash
- a49810f44c69d80390337558233011909356beaf4f2586a8d1fa00448c1ab8d4
- Model Version
- nfl_p10b_rb_empirical_v3
- P10 B
- Content Hash
- a5f9ed095d2dc8a7d240fb0989e516df94fdf6da425e1d03207b09238aeb519e
- Model Version
- nfl_p10c_wrte_empirical_v1
- Odds Ratio
- 0.87487737060478
- Pair Order
- ascending canonical player_id
- P5 Week Hash
- a2254ba8c0a3d262499ea5e2bb07d419b91aa632dd74faa1ca8d39f91285e627
- Evidence Version
- nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1
- Selection Version
- nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1
- Selected Candidate
- class_or_shrink_0
- Joint Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Market Is Model Input
- Cross Player P10 Draw Alignment
- prohibited
Season
Regular season and postseason stay separate; only supported values are shown.
Season production unavailable.
Games
Official game evidence
Published provider box-score evidence by category; it does not imply a start or snap share.
2026 regular · Week 1 · receiving · provider espn
JAX vs CLE · REC 1 · YDS 9 · AVG 9.0 · TD 0 · LONG 9 · TGTS 1
- Labels
- 0
- REC
- 1
- YDS
- 2
- AVG
- 3
- TD
- 4
- LONG
- 5
- TGTS
- Values
- 0
- 1
- 1
- 9
- 2
- 9.0
- 3
- 0
- 4
- 9
- 5
- 1
Weekly history
2026 REG · Week 1 · JAX vs CLE
Targets: 1 · Receptions: 1
- Carries
- 0
- Game Id
- 10525
- Targets
- 1
- Attempts
- 0
- Receptions
- 1
- Completions
- 0
- Passing Tds
- 0
- Rushing Tds
- 0
- Fumbles Lost
- 0
- Interceptions
- 0
- Passing Yards
- 0
- Receiving Tds
- 0
- Rushing Yards
- 0
- Receiving Yards
- 9
Fantasy outlook
Forward systems
Floor and ceiling are projected distribution percentiles; fumbles lost and two-point conversions remain unsupported.
Standard · 3.8 points · 0.0 floor · 2.1 median · 9.1 ceiling
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 1
- Game Id
- 10525
- Player Id
- 1280
- Team Id
- 47
- Opponent Team Id
- 40
- Position Code
- TE
- Scoring System Code
- standard
- Model Version
- nfl_p11a_forward_fantasy_v1
- Scoring Version
- pardonme_fantasy_v1
- Projection State
- fallback
- Position Rank
- 33
- Position Population
- 64
- Projected Points
- 3.7590
- Median Points
- 2.1000
- Floor Points
- 0.0000
- Ceiling Points
- 9.1000
- Projection Json
- {"state": "fallback", "summary": {"mean": 3.759015, "floor": 0.0, "median": 2.1, "ceiling": 9.1, "draw_count": 20000, "interval_80": {"lower": 0.0, "upper": 9.1}, "floor_definition": "10th percentile", "ceiling_definition": "90th percentile", "threshold_probabilities": {"6": 0.23355, "10": 0.09055, "15": 0.02335}}, "completeness": "modeled_components_only", "position_comparison": {"rank": 33, "percentile": 49.21875, "population": 64, "gap_to_position_median": -0.03492000000000006}, "unsupported_components": ["two_point_conversions", "fumbles_lost"]}
- Explanation Json
- {"short": "3.6 targets and 2.6 receptions; 17% chance of 1+ relevant TD; thin-history fallback widens uncertainty; availability unknown.", "drivers": ["3.6 targets and 2.6 receptions", "17% chance of 1+ relevant TD", "thin-history fallback widens uncertainty", "availability unknown"], "causal_boundary": "P10 football outcomes determine the projection; role, matchup, P9/P9I and history are explanation/context only.", "historical_2025": null}
- Lineage Json
- {"model_version": "nfl_p11a_forward_fantasy_v1", "scoring_version": "pardonme_fantasy_v1", "p10_content_hash": "a5f9ed095d2dc8a7d240fb0989e516df94fdf6da425e1d03207b09238aeb519e", "p10_model_version": "nfl_p10c_wrte_empirical_v1", "draw_transformation": "exact deterministic P10 draws scored component-wise", "p10_reproducibility": {"seed": 105250135, "method": "empirical targets centered on read-only P5; conditional beta-binomial receptions and TD; nonnegative blended posterior/empirical yards per reception", "source_hash": "5ab15e7546c45642ebef5207d8f0bffdf16f421054ce0265998db39b92c47761", "interval_level": 0.8, "simulation_draws": 20000, "frozen_parameters": {"era_seasons": 5, "td_prior_targets": 250, "catch_prior_targets": 10, "target_mixture_games": 2, "efficiency_empirical_blend": 0.0, "efficiency_prior_receptions": 10}, "parameter_version": "nfl_p10c_wrte_params_v1", "parameter_selection_season": 2023}, "source_manifest_hash": "c950d1900c3f1d9443b6c9fd4916ad84c9afa5723644b279a944655ea58a8359", "unsupported_components": ["two_point_conversions", "fumbles_lost"]}
- Content Hash
- 9d4cba815b776d7a560012225669b716e13fe68a4309697ee17454d7ed3dcfe4
- Observed At
- 2026-09-01 23:59:00
- Generated At
- 2026-09-01 23:59:00
- Published At
- 2026-09-10 11:41:10
- Projection
- State
- fallback
- Summary
- Mean
- 3.759015
- Floor
- 0
- Median
- 2.1
- Ceiling
- 9.1
- Draw Count
- 20000
- Interval 80
- Lower
- 0
- Upper
- 9.1
- Floor Definition
- 10th percentile
- Ceiling Definition
- 90th percentile
- Threshold Probabilities
- 6
- 0.23355
- 10
- 0.09055
- 15
- 0.02335
- Completeness
- modeled_components_only
- Position Comparison
- Rank
- 33
- Percentile
- 49.21875
- Population
- 64
- Gap To Position Median
- -0.03492
- Unsupported Components
- 0
- two_point_conversions
- 1
- fumbles_lost
- Explanation
- Short
- 3.6 targets and 2.6 receptions; 17% chance of 1+ relevant TD; thin-history fallback widens uncertainty; availability unknown.
- Drivers
- 0
- 3.6 targets and 2.6 receptions
- 1
- 17% chance of 1+ relevant TD
- 2
- thin-history fallback widens uncertainty
- 3
- availability unknown
- Causal Boundary
- P10 football outcomes determine the projection; role, matchup, P9/P9I and history are explanation/context only.
- Historical 2025
- —
- Lineage
- Model Version
- nfl_p11a_forward_fantasy_v1
- Scoring Version
- pardonme_fantasy_v1
- P10 Content Hash
- a5f9ed095d2dc8a7d240fb0989e516df94fdf6da425e1d03207b09238aeb519e
- P10 Model Version
- nfl_p10c_wrte_empirical_v1
- Draw Transformation
- exact deterministic P10 draws scored component-wise
- P10 Reproducibility
- Seed
- 105250135
- Method
- empirical targets centered on read-only P5; conditional beta-binomial receptions and TD; nonnegative blended posterior/empirical yards per reception
- Source Hash
- 5ab15e7546c45642ebef5207d8f0bffdf16f421054ce0265998db39b92c47761
- Interval Level
- 0.8
- Simulation Draws
- 20000
- Frozen Parameters
- Era Seasons
- 5
- Td Prior Targets
- 250
- Catch Prior Targets
- 10
- Target Mixture Games
- 2
- Efficiency Empirical Blend
- 0
- Efficiency Prior Receptions
- 10
- Parameter Version
- nfl_p10c_wrte_params_v1
- Parameter Selection Season
- 2023
- Source Manifest Hash
- c950d1900c3f1d9443b6c9fd4916ad84c9afa5723644b279a944655ea58a8359
- Unsupported Components
- 0
- two_point_conversions
- 1
- fumbles_lost
Half-PPR · 5.0 points · 0.0 floor · 3.1 median · 12.1 ceiling
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 1
- Game Id
- 10525
- Player Id
- 1280
- Team Id
- 47
- Opponent Team Id
- 40
- Position Code
- TE
- Scoring System Code
- half_ppr
- Model Version
- nfl_p11a_forward_fantasy_v1
- Scoring Version
- pardonme_fantasy_v1
- Projection State
- fallback
- Position Rank
- 34
- Position Population
- 64
- Projected Points
- 5.0344
- Median Points
- 3.1000
- Floor Points
- 0.0000
- Ceiling Points
- 12.1000
- Projection Json
- {"state": "fallback", "summary": {"mean": 5.034365, "floor": 0.0, "median": 3.1, "ceiling": 12.1, "draw_count": 20000, "interval_80": {"lower": 0.0, "upper": 12.1}, "floor_definition": "10th percentile", "ceiling_definition": "90th percentile", "threshold_probabilities": {"6": 0.34605, "10": 0.14845, "15": 0.0532}}, "completeness": "modeled_components_only", "position_comparison": {"rank": 34, "percentile": 47.65625, "population": 64, "gap_to_position_median": -0.10695750000000004}, "unsupported_components": ["two_point_conversions", "fumbles_lost"]}
- Explanation Json
- {"short": "3.6 targets and 2.6 receptions; 17% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; thin-history fallback widens uncertainty; availability unknown.", "drivers": ["3.6 targets and 2.6 receptions", "17% chance of 1+ relevant TD", "receptions add 0.5 points each", "thin-history fallback widens uncertainty", "availability unknown"], "causal_boundary": "P10 football outcomes determine the projection; role, matchup, P9/P9I and history are explanation/context only.", "historical_2025": null}
- Lineage Json
- {"model_version": "nfl_p11a_forward_fantasy_v1", "scoring_version": "pardonme_fantasy_v1", "p10_content_hash": "a5f9ed095d2dc8a7d240fb0989e516df94fdf6da425e1d03207b09238aeb519e", "p10_model_version": "nfl_p10c_wrte_empirical_v1", "draw_transformation": "exact deterministic P10 draws scored component-wise", "p10_reproducibility": {"seed": 105250135, "method": "empirical targets centered on read-only P5; conditional beta-binomial receptions and TD; nonnegative blended posterior/empirical yards per reception", "source_hash": "5ab15e7546c45642ebef5207d8f0bffdf16f421054ce0265998db39b92c47761", "interval_level": 0.8, "simulation_draws": 20000, "frozen_parameters": {"era_seasons": 5, "td_prior_targets": 250, "catch_prior_targets": 10, "target_mixture_games": 2, "efficiency_empirical_blend": 0.0, "efficiency_prior_receptions": 10}, "parameter_version": "nfl_p10c_wrte_params_v1", "parameter_selection_season": 2023}, "source_manifest_hash": "3595f90266df1200f2369a5569b3f5a93c4dba3fd005904d82f8ede4b7faf34e", "unsupported_components": ["two_point_conversions", "fumbles_lost"]}
- Content Hash
- 55a9b58c3a522793d3c2845cb850021f5134651b33a886f1914bef13d6beecc7
- Observed At
- 2026-09-01 23:59:00
- Generated At
- 2026-09-01 23:59:00
- Published At
- 2026-09-10 11:41:10
- Projection
- State
- fallback
- Summary
- Mean
- 5.034365
- Floor
- 0
- Median
- 3.1
- Ceiling
- 12.1
- Draw Count
- 20000
- Interval 80
- Lower
- 0
- Upper
- 12.1
- Floor Definition
- 10th percentile
- Ceiling Definition
- 90th percentile
- Threshold Probabilities
- 6
- 0.34605
- 10
- 0.14845
- 15
- 0.0532
- Completeness
- modeled_components_only
- Position Comparison
- Rank
- 34
- Percentile
- 47.65625
- Population
- 64
- Gap To Position Median
- -0.1069575
- Unsupported Components
- 0
- two_point_conversions
- 1
- fumbles_lost
- Explanation
- Short
- 3.6 targets and 2.6 receptions; 17% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; thin-history fallback widens uncertainty; availability unknown.
- Drivers
- 0
- 3.6 targets and 2.6 receptions
- 1
- 17% chance of 1+ relevant TD
- 2
- receptions add 0.5 points each
- 3
- thin-history fallback widens uncertainty
- 4
- availability unknown
- Causal Boundary
- P10 football outcomes determine the projection; role, matchup, P9/P9I and history are explanation/context only.
- Historical 2025
- —
- Lineage
- Model Version
- nfl_p11a_forward_fantasy_v1
- Scoring Version
- pardonme_fantasy_v1
- P10 Content Hash
- a5f9ed095d2dc8a7d240fb0989e516df94fdf6da425e1d03207b09238aeb519e
- P10 Model Version
- nfl_p10c_wrte_empirical_v1
- Draw Transformation
- exact deterministic P10 draws scored component-wise
- P10 Reproducibility
- Seed
- 105250135
- Method
- empirical targets centered on read-only P5; conditional beta-binomial receptions and TD; nonnegative blended posterior/empirical yards per reception
- Source Hash
- 5ab15e7546c45642ebef5207d8f0bffdf16f421054ce0265998db39b92c47761
- Interval Level
- 0.8
- Simulation Draws
- 20000
- Frozen Parameters
- Era Seasons
- 5
- Td Prior Targets
- 250
- Catch Prior Targets
- 10
- Target Mixture Games
- 2
- Efficiency Empirical Blend
- 0
- Efficiency Prior Receptions
- 10
- Parameter Version
- nfl_p10c_wrte_params_v1
- Parameter Selection Season
- 2023
- Source Manifest Hash
- 3595f90266df1200f2369a5569b3f5a93c4dba3fd005904d82f8ede4b7faf34e
- Unsupported Components
- 0
- two_point_conversions
- 1
- fumbles_lost
Full-PPR · 6.3 points · 0.0 floor · 4.1 median · 14.2 ceiling
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 1
- Game Id
- 10525
- Player Id
- 1280
- Team Id
- 47
- Opponent Team Id
- 40
- Position Code
- TE
- Scoring System Code
- full_ppr
- Model Version
- nfl_p11a_forward_fantasy_v1
- Scoring Version
- pardonme_fantasy_v1
- Projection State
- fallback
- Position Rank
- 34
- Position Population
- 64
- Projected Points
- 6.3097
- Median Points
- 4.1000
- Floor Points
- 0.0000
- Ceiling Points
- 14.2000
- Projection Json
- {"state": "fallback", "summary": {"mean": 6.309715, "floor": 0.0, "median": 4.1, "ceiling": 14.2, "draw_count": 20000, "interval_80": {"lower": 0.0, "upper": 14.2}, "floor_definition": "10th percentile", "ceiling_definition": "90th percentile", "threshold_probabilities": {"6": 0.45465, "10": 0.24645, "15": 0.0849}}, "completeness": "modeled_components_only", "position_comparison": {"rank": 34, "percentile": 47.65625, "population": 64, "gap_to_position_median": -0.10489499999999996}, "unsupported_components": ["two_point_conversions", "fumbles_lost"]}
- Explanation Json
- {"short": "3.6 targets and 2.6 receptions; 17% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 1.0 points each; thin-history fallback widens uncertainty; availability unknown.", "drivers": ["3.6 targets and 2.6 receptions", "17% chance of 1+ relevant TD", "receptions add 1.0 points each", "thin-history fallback widens uncertainty", "availability unknown"], "causal_boundary": "P10 football outcomes determine the projection; role, matchup, P9/P9I and history are explanation/context only.", "historical_2025": null}
- Lineage Json
- {"model_version": "nfl_p11a_forward_fantasy_v1", "scoring_version": "pardonme_fantasy_v1", "p10_content_hash": "a5f9ed095d2dc8a7d240fb0989e516df94fdf6da425e1d03207b09238aeb519e", "p10_model_version": "nfl_p10c_wrte_empirical_v1", "draw_transformation": "exact deterministic P10 draws scored component-wise", "p10_reproducibility": {"seed": 105250135, "method": "empirical targets centered on read-only P5; conditional beta-binomial receptions and TD; nonnegative blended posterior/empirical yards per reception", "source_hash": "5ab15e7546c45642ebef5207d8f0bffdf16f421054ce0265998db39b92c47761", "interval_level": 0.8, "simulation_draws": 20000, "frozen_parameters": {"era_seasons": 5, "td_prior_targets": 250, "catch_prior_targets": 10, "target_mixture_games": 2, "efficiency_empirical_blend": 0.0, "efficiency_prior_receptions": 10}, "parameter_version": "nfl_p10c_wrte_params_v1", "parameter_selection_season": 2023}, "source_manifest_hash": "ce55809373f1b55bcf7073425aca48ec9af3828e593f5a53e5ed413ce6ad3127", "unsupported_components": ["two_point_conversions", "fumbles_lost"]}
- Content Hash
- 128bc7a06ef8b450b35e0c631c423a9d879549022f7e54c368433fbf5a1f30da
- Observed At
- 2026-09-01 23:59:00
- Generated At
- 2026-09-01 23:59:00
- Published At
- 2026-09-10 11:41:10
- Projection
- State
- fallback
- Summary
- Mean
- 6.309715
- Floor
- 0
- Median
- 4.1
- Ceiling
- 14.2
- Draw Count
- 20000
- Interval 80
- Lower
- 0
- Upper
- 14.2
- Floor Definition
- 10th percentile
- Ceiling Definition
- 90th percentile
- Threshold Probabilities
- 6
- 0.45465
- 10
- 0.24645
- 15
- 0.0849
- Completeness
- modeled_components_only
- Position Comparison
- Rank
- 34
- Percentile
- 47.65625
- Population
- 64
- Gap To Position Median
- -0.104895
- Unsupported Components
- 0
- two_point_conversions
- 1
- fumbles_lost
- Explanation
- Short
- 3.6 targets and 2.6 receptions; 17% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 1.0 points each; thin-history fallback widens uncertainty; availability unknown.
- Drivers
- 0
- 3.6 targets and 2.6 receptions
- 1
- 17% chance of 1+ relevant TD
- 2
- receptions add 1.0 points each
- 3
- thin-history fallback widens uncertainty
- 4
- availability unknown
- Causal Boundary
- P10 football outcomes determine the projection; role, matchup, P9/P9I and history are explanation/context only.
- Historical 2025
- —
- Lineage
- Model Version
- nfl_p11a_forward_fantasy_v1
- Scoring Version
- pardonme_fantasy_v1
- P10 Content Hash
- a5f9ed095d2dc8a7d240fb0989e516df94fdf6da425e1d03207b09238aeb519e
- P10 Model Version
- nfl_p10c_wrte_empirical_v1
- Draw Transformation
- exact deterministic P10 draws scored component-wise
- P10 Reproducibility
- Seed
- 105250135
- Method
- empirical targets centered on read-only P5; conditional beta-binomial receptions and TD; nonnegative blended posterior/empirical yards per reception
- Source Hash
- 5ab15e7546c45642ebef5207d8f0bffdf16f421054ce0265998db39b92c47761
- Interval Level
- 0.8
- Simulation Draws
- 20000
- Frozen Parameters
- Era Seasons
- 5
- Td Prior Targets
- 250
- Catch Prior Targets
- 10
- Target Mixture Games
- 2
- Efficiency Empirical Blend
- 0
- Efficiency Prior Receptions
- 10
- Parameter Version
- nfl_p10c_wrte_params_v1
- Parameter Selection Season
- 2023
- Source Manifest Hash
- ce55809373f1b55bcf7073425aca48ec9af3828e593f5a53e5ed413ce6ad3127
- Unsupported Components
- 0
- two_point_conversions
- 1
- fumbles_lost
Historical fantasy
PardonMe-derived scoring and usage are not official NFL statistics. Historical floor, ceiling and consistency are backward-looking; rolling, trailing and qualified position comparisons use prior weeks only.
Madden
—EA OVR
Version unavailable · Observed: Unavailable · Team: Jacksonville Jaguars
EA ratings are supplied by EA; no presentation tiers are used.
Key attributes
EA attributes unavailable.
EA rating history
Career
Coverage: —–—
Team history
Role summaries
2026 · JAX · 0 supported starts
- Player Id
- 1280
- Season Year
- 2026
- Team Abbr
- JAX
- Games With Workload
- 2
- Supported Starts
- 0
- Primary Backup Games
- 0
- Rotational Games
- 0
- Avg Offense Pct
- —
- Avg Defense Pct
- —
- Avg Special Teams Pct
- —
- Latest Role
- unknown
- Latest Week
- 2
- Coverage State
- partial_depth
- Source Hash
- 1f3b7f2e0c46a8ce1b7081ab562b5bf623b4d2bb79aaa1e009a6b7162d9ea5d5
- Last Published At
- 2026-09-18 16:46:18
Full role history
2026 Week 2 · unknown · offense —
- Player Id
- 1280
- Team Abbr
- JAX
- Season Year
- 2026
- Season Type
- REG
- Week Number
- 2
- Game Id
- —
- Position Code
- TE
- Depth Position
- TE
- Formation
- src:b2bef40d8c7de1e96a840ab9
- Depth Rank
- 2
- Derived Role
- unknown
- Starter State
- unknown
- Offense Snaps
- —
- Offense Pct
- —
- Defense Snaps
- —
- Defense Pct
- —
- Special Teams Snaps
- —
- Special Teams Pct
- —
- Confidence
- low
- Evidence Completeness
- depth_only
- Warnings Json
- ["relevant_snap_percentage_unavailable", "no_positive_participation_evidence", "official_depth_only_no_snap_evidence"]
- Source Hash
- 667e5ecabd37c3eb9151264d8462decd22e779eaf78df7ef4813da22a3fd9aa8
- Source Observed At
- 2026-09-18 16:46:12
- Last Published At
- 2026-09-22 11:17:27
2026 Week 1 · participated · offense —
- Player Id
- 1280
- Team Abbr
- JAX
- Season Year
- 2026
- Season Type
- REG
- Week Number
- 1
- Game Id
- 10525
- Position Code
- TE
- Depth Position
- —
- Formation
- —
- Depth Rank
- —
- Derived Role
- participated
- Starter State
- unknown
- Offense Snaps
- —
- Offense Pct
- —
- Defense Snaps
- —
- Defense Pct
- —
- Special Teams Snaps
- —
- Special Teams Pct
- —
- Confidence
- low
- Evidence Completeness
- espn_participation_only
- Warnings Json
- ["snap_participation_unavailable", "depth_rank_unavailable_for_completed_week"]
- Source Hash
- c12ae889e9ca095d0dc9568dd992dd3adce7c75c0be2d0a32e272786ff6f7a39
- Source Observed At
- 2026-09-16 16:27:46
- Last Published At
- 2026-09-17 11:24:37
More
Availability detail and history
No current official observation entered. Missing information is unknown; it does not mean healthy, active, available, or unrestricted.
Advanced distributions and matchup context
Receiving distribution
fallback_distribution. Suppressed or unavailable values are not projected as zero.
- Game Id
- 10525
- Player Id
- 1280
- Team Id
- 47
- Opponent Team Id
- 40
- Position Code
- TE
- Model Version
- nfl_p10c_wrte_empirical_v1
- Parameter Version
- nfl_p10c_wrte_params_v1
- Evidence Tier
- position_current_era_fallback
- Confidence
- Insufficient Evidence
- Distribution Json
- {"state": "fallback_distribution", "targets": {"mean": 3.6011, "median": 3.0, "interval_80": {"lower": 1.0, "upper": 7.0}}, "receptions": {"mean": 2.5507, "median": 2.0, "interval_80": {"lower": 0.0, "upper": 6.0}}, "receiving_tds": {"mean": 0.18935, "median": 0.0, "interval_80": {"lower": 0.0, "upper": 1.0}, "probabilities": {"0": 0.8325, "1": 0.14805, "1+": 0.1675, "2+": 0.01945}}, "receiving_yards": {"mean": 26.22915, "median": 21.0, "interval_80": {"lower": 0.0, "upper": 62.0}}}
- Evidence Json
- {"routes": {"state": "unsupported", "reason": "routes are not retained in the governed historical weekly evidence"}, "p9i_context": [{"pca1_index": null, "matchup_code": "qb_vs_secondary", "model_effect": "explanation_only", "equal_z_index": null}, {"pca1_index": null, "matchup_code": "receiving_vs_secondary", "model_effect": "explanation_only", "equal_z_index": null}], "current_truth": {"role": {"state": "unknown", "depth_rank": null, "source_hash": null, "team_match_state": "missing_current_team_role"}, "availability": {"state": "unknown", "reason": "current_availability_unknown_projection_retained", "values": {"roster_status": "unknown", "reserve_status": "unknown", "inactive_status": "unknown", "canonical_status": "unknown", "game_designation": "unknown"}, "conflict_state": "none", "freshness_state": "unknown", "game_scope_state": "old_or_unknown", "team_match_state": "unknown", "serve_distribution": true}, "availability_source_manifest_hash": null}, "individualized": false, "unknown_inputs": ["routes", "individual CB assignments", "validated causal P9/P9I receiving coefficient"], "fallback_reason": "insufficient_player_history", "p5_target_center": {"value": 3.590431749231, "contract": "accepted P5 target center; read-only", "workload_target": "targets"}, "projection_basis": "model_imputed_baseline", "madden_model_effect": "none; explanation-only", "meaningful_definition": ">=1 target and >=3% of team WR/TE targets", "player_meaningful_games": 0}
- Reproducibility Json
- {"seed": 105250135, "method": "empirical targets centered on read-only P5; conditional beta-binomial receptions and TD; nonnegative blended posterior/empirical yards per reception", "source_hash": "5ab15e7546c45642ebef5207d8f0bffdf16f421054ce0265998db39b92c47761", "interval_level": 0.8, "simulation_draws": 20000, "frozen_parameters": {"era_seasons": 5, "td_prior_targets": 250, "catch_prior_targets": 10, "target_mixture_games": 2, "efficiency_empirical_blend": 0.0, "efficiency_prior_receptions": 10}, "parameter_version": "nfl_p10c_wrte_params_v1", "parameter_selection_season": 2023}
- Content Hash
- a5f9ed095d2dc8a7d240fb0989e516df94fdf6da425e1d03207b09238aeb519e
- Observed At
- 2026-09-01 23:59:00
- Generated At
- 2026-09-01 23:59:00
- Published At
- 2026-09-09 11:30:20
- Team Abbr
- JAX
- Opponent Abbr
- CLE
- Distribution
- State
- fallback_distribution
- Targets
- Mean
- 3.6011
- Median
- 3
- Interval 80
- Lower
- 1
- Upper
- 7
- Receptions
- Mean
- 2.5507
- Median
- 2
- Interval 80
- Lower
- 0
- Upper
- 6
- Receiving Tds
- Mean
- 0.18935
- Median
- 0
- Interval 80
- Lower
- 0
- Upper
- 1
- Probabilities
- 0
- 0.8325
- 1
- 0.14805
- 1+
- 0.1675
- 2+
- 0.01945
- Receiving Yards
- Mean
- 26.22915
- Median
- 21
- Interval 80
- Lower
- 0
- Upper
- 62
- Evidence
- Routes
- State
- unsupported
- Reason
- routes are not retained in the governed historical weekly evidence
- P9i Context
- 0
- Pca1 Index
- —
- Matchup Code
- qb_vs_secondary
- Model Effect
- explanation_only
- Equal Z Index
- —
- 1
- Pca1 Index
- —
- Matchup Code
- receiving_vs_secondary
- Model Effect
- explanation_only
- Equal Z Index
- —
- Current Truth
- Role
- State
- unknown
- Depth Rank
- —
- Source Hash
- —
- Team Match State
- missing_current_team_role
- Availability
- State
- unknown
- Reason
- current_availability_unknown_projection_retained
- Values
- Roster Status
- unknown
- Reserve Status
- unknown
- Inactive Status
- unknown
- Canonical Status
- unknown
- Game Designation
- unknown
- Conflict State
- none
- Freshness State
- unknown
- Game Scope State
- old_or_unknown
- Team Match State
- unknown
- Serve Distribution
- 1
- Availability Source Manifest Hash
- —
- Individualized
- Unknown Inputs
- 0
- routes
- 1
- individual CB assignments
- 2
- validated causal P9/P9I receiving coefficient
- Fallback Reason
- insufficient_player_history
- P5 Target Center
- Value
- 3.590431749231
- Contract
- accepted P5 target center; read-only
- Workload Target
- targets
- Projection Basis
- model_imputed_baseline
- Madden Model Effect
- none; explanation-only
- Meaningful Definition
- >=1 target and >=3% of team WR/TE targets
- Player Meaningful Games
- 0
- Reproducibility
- Seed
- 105250135
- Method
- empirical targets centered on read-only P5; conditional beta-binomial receptions and TD; nonnegative blended posterior/empirical yards per reception
- Source Hash
- 5ab15e7546c45642ebef5207d8f0bffdf16f421054ce0265998db39b92c47761
- Interval Level
- 0.8
- Simulation Draws
- 20000
- Frozen Parameters
- Era Seasons
- 5
- Td Prior Targets
- 250
- Catch Prior Targets
- 10
- Target Mixture Games
- 2
- Efficiency Empirical Blend
- 0
- Efficiency Prior Receptions
- 10
- Parameter Version
- nfl_p10c_wrte_params_v1
- Parameter Selection Season
- 2023
Unit, passing and scoring context
- Unit Matchups
- 0
- Game Id
- 10525
- Offense Team Id
- 40
- Defense Team Id
- 47
- Offense Abbr
- CLE
- Defense Abbr
- JAX
- Pressure Json
- {"state": "unknown", "reason": "Retained nflverse player statistics include QB hits but not total pressure events; QB hits are not relabeled as pressures."}
- Sack Json
- {"edge": "mixed", "state": "supported", "defense": {"rate": 0.047976011994003, "sacks": 32.0, "opponent_dropbacks": 667.0, "league_rank_high_is_best": 30}, "offense": {"rate": 0.08374384236453201, "dropbacks": 609.0, "sacks_allowed": 51.0, "league_rank_low_is_best": 25}, "denominator": "QB dropbacks = pass attempts + sacks suffered", "league_medians": {"defense_sack_rate": 0.06745662047280773, "offense_sack_rate": 0.06683513419309864}}
- Run Json
- {"edge": "defense", "state": "supported", "defense": {"opponent_carries": 369.0, "opponent_rush_yards": 1455.0, "league_rank_low_is_best": 5, "yards_per_carry_allowed": 3.9430894308943087}, "offense": {"carries": 421.0, "rush_yards": 1649.0, "yards_per_carry": 3.9168646080760094, "league_rank_high_is_best": 28}, "denominator": "Retained player carries; rushing yards divided by carries", "league_medians": {"offense_yards_per_carry": 4.319816463259086, "defense_yards_per_carry_allowed": 4.29079863438525}}
- Sample Basis
- 2025 REG nflverse weekly player statistics; full retained team schedule
- Provenance Json
- {"table": "pardonme_warehouse.nfl_player_week_statistics", "season": 2025, "provider": "nflverse", "season_type": "REG", "source_hash": "661f41cb9dcc7fbd4b5e3e0f755f47ddda7599d15c2fe2b39f29910e4115deac"}
- Missingness Json
- {"pressure_rate": "unknown_total_pressure_events_not_retained", "individual_ol_assignments": "unknown", "current_replacement_effect": "unknown_not_inferred_from_depth_or_availability", "pressures_allowed_by_lineman": "unknown"}
- Confidence
- supported_prior_season_team_aggregate
- Explanation
- CLE protection allowed 51.0 sacks on 609 dropbacks (8.4%, league rank 25/32 with low rate best); JAX produced 32.0 sacks on 667 opponent dropbacks (4.8%, rank 30/32 with high rate best). On the ground, CLE averaged 3.92 yards per carry and JAX allowed 3.94. Pressure rate remains Unknown because total pressure events are not retained.
- Contract Version
- nfl_unit_matchup_p9a_v1
- Content Hash
- 13928c4ab55400cf059ced851881dbe1b6a67742f6682af7e96d4c30247bcd47
- Derived At
- 2026-08-24 19:05:02
- Published At
- 2026-08-24 19:05:02
- Pressure
- State
- unknown
- Reason
- Retained nflverse player statistics include QB hits but not total pressure events; QB hits are not relabeled as pressures.
- Sack
- Edge
- mixed
- State
- supported
- Defense
- Rate
- 0.047976011994003
- Sacks
- 32
- Opponent Dropbacks
- 667
- League Rank High Is Best
- 30
- Offense
- Rate
- 0.083743842364532
- Dropbacks
- 609
- Sacks Allowed
- 51
- League Rank Low Is Best
- 25
- Denominator
- QB dropbacks = pass attempts + sacks suffered
- League Medians
- Defense Sack Rate
- 0.067456620472808
- Offense Sack Rate
- 0.066835134193099
- Run
- Edge
- defense
- State
- supported
- Defense
- Opponent Carries
- 369
- Opponent Rush Yards
- 1455
- League Rank Low Is Best
- 5
- Yards Per Carry Allowed
- 3.9430894308943
- Offense
- Carries
- 421
- Rush Yards
- 1649
- Yards Per Carry
- 3.916864608076
- League Rank High Is Best
- 28
- Denominator
- Retained player carries; rushing yards divided by carries
- League Medians
- Offense Yards Per Carry
- 4.3198164632591
- Defense Yards Per Carry Allowed
- 4.2907986343852
- Provenance
- Table
- pardonme_warehouse.nfl_player_week_statistics
- Season
- 2025
- Provider
- nflverse
- Season Type
- REG
- Source Hash
- 661f41cb9dcc7fbd4b5e3e0f755f47ddda7599d15c2fe2b39f29910e4115deac
- Missingness
- Pressure Rate
- unknown_total_pressure_events_not_retained
- Individual Ol Assignments
- unknown
- Current Replacement Effect
- unknown_not_inferred_from_depth_or_availability
- Pressures Allowed By Lineman
- unknown
- 1
- Game Id
- 10525
- Offense Team Id
- 47
- Defense Team Id
- 40
- Offense Abbr
- JAX
- Defense Abbr
- CLE
- Pressure Json
- {"state": "unknown", "reason": "Retained nflverse player statistics include QB hits but not total pressure events; QB hits are not relabeled as pressures."}
- Sack Json
- {"edge": "defense", "state": "supported", "defense": {"rate": 0.09814814814814816, "sacks": 53.0, "opponent_dropbacks": 540.0, "league_rank_high_is_best": 3}, "offense": {"rate": 0.06788079470198675, "dropbacks": 604.0, "sacks_allowed": 41.0, "league_rank_low_is_best": 17}, "denominator": "QB dropbacks = pass attempts + sacks suffered", "league_medians": {"defense_sack_rate": 0.06745662047280773, "offense_sack_rate": 0.06683513419309864}}
- Run Json
- {"edge": "defense", "state": "supported", "defense": {"opponent_carries": 475.0, "opponent_rush_yards": 1979.0, "league_rank_low_is_best": 10, "yards_per_carry_allowed": 4.166315789473685}, "offense": {"carries": 489.0, "rush_yards": 1956.0, "yards_per_carry": 4.0, "league_rank_high_is_best": 27}, "denominator": "Retained player carries; rushing yards divided by carries", "league_medians": {"offense_yards_per_carry": 4.319816463259086, "defense_yards_per_carry_allowed": 4.29079863438525}}
- Sample Basis
- 2025 REG nflverse weekly player statistics; full retained team schedule
- Provenance Json
- {"table": "pardonme_warehouse.nfl_player_week_statistics", "season": 2025, "provider": "nflverse", "season_type": "REG", "source_hash": "661f41cb9dcc7fbd4b5e3e0f755f47ddda7599d15c2fe2b39f29910e4115deac"}
- Missingness Json
- {"pressure_rate": "unknown_total_pressure_events_not_retained", "individual_ol_assignments": "unknown", "current_replacement_effect": "unknown_not_inferred_from_depth_or_availability", "pressures_allowed_by_lineman": "unknown"}
- Confidence
- supported_prior_season_team_aggregate
- Explanation
- JAX protection allowed 41.0 sacks on 604 dropbacks (6.8%, league rank 17/32 with low rate best); CLE produced 53.0 sacks on 540 opponent dropbacks (9.8%, rank 3/32 with high rate best). On the ground, JAX averaged 4.00 yards per carry and CLE allowed 4.17. Pressure rate remains Unknown because total pressure events are not retained.
- Contract Version
- nfl_unit_matchup_p9a_v1
- Content Hash
- 2173df5671efa038c478701af49c1f83be9d3a5a26e81b86f21dcf6fe16486a6
- Derived At
- 2026-08-24 19:05:02
- Published At
- 2026-08-24 19:05:02
- Pressure
- State
- unknown
- Reason
- Retained nflverse player statistics include QB hits but not total pressure events; QB hits are not relabeled as pressures.
- Sack
- Edge
- defense
- State
- supported
- Defense
- Rate
- 0.098148148148148
- Sacks
- 53
- Opponent Dropbacks
- 540
- League Rank High Is Best
- 3
- Offense
- Rate
- 0.067880794701987
- Dropbacks
- 604
- Sacks Allowed
- 41
- League Rank Low Is Best
- 17
- Denominator
- QB dropbacks = pass attempts + sacks suffered
- League Medians
- Defense Sack Rate
- 0.067456620472808
- Offense Sack Rate
- 0.066835134193099
- Run
- Edge
- defense
- State
- supported
- Defense
- Opponent Carries
- 475
- Opponent Rush Yards
- 1979
- League Rank Low Is Best
- 10
- Yards Per Carry Allowed
- 4.1663157894737
- Offense
- Carries
- 489
- Rush Yards
- 1956
- Yards Per Carry
- 4
- League Rank High Is Best
- 27
- Denominator
- Retained player carries; rushing yards divided by carries
- League Medians
- Offense Yards Per Carry
- 4.3198164632591
- Defense Yards Per Carry Allowed
- 4.2907986343852
- Provenance
- Table
- pardonme_warehouse.nfl_player_week_statistics
- Season
- 2025
- Provider
- nflverse
- Season Type
- REG
- Source Hash
- 661f41cb9dcc7fbd4b5e3e0f755f47ddda7599d15c2fe2b39f29910e4115deac
- Missingness
- Pressure Rate
- unknown_total_pressure_events_not_retained
- Individual Ol Assignments
- unknown
- Current Replacement Effect
- unknown_not_inferred_from_depth_or_availability
- Pressures Allowed By Lineman
- unknown
- Passing Matchups
- 0
- Game Id
- 10525
- Offense Team Id
- 40
- Defense Team Id
- 47
- Offense Abbr
- CLE
- Defense Abbr
- JAX
- Completion Json
- {"edge": "defense", "state": "supported", "defense": {"value": 0.6236220472440945, "numerator": 396.0, "league_rank": 7, "opponent_attempts": 635.0}, "offense": {"value": 0.578853046594982, "attempts": 558.0, "numerator": 323.0, "league_rank": 32}, "denominator": "completions / pass attempts", "league_teams": 32, "league_medians": {"defense": 0.6470757053954443, "offense": 0.6443706063268893}}
- Efficiency Json
- {"edge": "defense", "state": "supported", "defense": {"value": 6.193700787401575, "numerator": 3933.0, "league_rank": 3, "opponent_attempts": 635.0}, "offense": {"value": 5.648745519713262, "attempts": 558.0, "numerator": 3152.0, "league_rank": 31}, "denominator": "passing yards / pass attempts", "league_teams": 32, "league_medians": {"defense": 7.041235616438357, "offense": 6.941278879916052}}
- Touchdown Json
- {"edge": "defense", "state": "supported", "defense": {"value": 0.03937007874015748, "numerator": 25.0, "league_rank": 10, "opponent_attempts": 635.0}, "offense": {"value": 0.02867383512544803, "attempts": 558.0, "numerator": 16.0, "league_rank": 31}, "denominator": "passing touchdowns / pass attempts", "league_teams": 32, "league_medians": {"defense": 0.04644643781266172, "offense": 0.04659846191321293}}
- Interception Json
- {"edge": "defense", "state": "supported", "defense": {"value": 0.03464566929133858, "numerator": 22.0, "league_rank": 4, "opponent_attempts": 635.0}, "offense": {"value": 0.03225806451612903, "attempts": 558.0, "numerator": 18.0, "league_rank": 29}, "denominator": "passing interceptions / pass attempts", "league_teams": 32, "league_medians": {"defense": 0.02121271115370792, "offense": 0.02025329436496949}}
- Explosive Json
- {"edge": "defense", "state": "supported", "defense": {"value": 0.07244094488188976, "numerator": 46.0, "league_rank": 4, "opponent_attempts": 635.0}, "offense": {"value": 0.06272401433691756, "attempts": 558.0, "numerator": 35.0, "league_rank": 30}, "denominator": "retained nflverse 20+ yard passing plays / pass attempts", "league_teams": 32, "league_medians": {"defense": 0.08874977674584747, "offense": 0.08576318929598403}}
- Advanced Json
- {"epa": "unknown_incomplete_and_aggregation_semantics_not_governed", "cpoe": "unknown_incomplete_and_aggregation_semantics_not_governed", "state": "unknown", "reason": "EPA/CPOE are activity-dependent and incomplete in retained rows; success rate and 2025 REG PBP are not retained.", "success_rate": "unknown_not_retained_in_2025_weekly_player_facts"}
- Coverage Json
- {"man_zone_rate": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence", "cb_wr_assignment": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence", "separation_allowed": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence", "target_specific_coverage": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence", "individual_defender_grade": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence"}
- Sample Basis
- 2025 REG nflverse weekly player statistics; full retained team schedule
- Provenance Json
- {"table": "pardonme_warehouse.nfl_player_week_statistics", "season": 2025, "provider": "nflverse", "season_type": "REG", "source_hash": "661f41cb9dcc7fbd4b5e3e0f755f47ddda7599d15c2fe2b39f29910e4115deac"}
- Missingness Json
- {"advanced": {"epa": "unknown_incomplete_and_aggregation_semantics_not_governed", "cpoe": "unknown_incomplete_and_aggregation_semantics_not_governed", "state": "unknown", "reason": "EPA/CPOE are activity-dependent and incomplete in retained rows; success rate and 2025 REG PBP are not retained.", "success_rate": "unknown_not_retained_in_2025_weekly_player_facts"}, "coverage": {"man_zone_rate": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence", "cb_wr_assignment": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence", "separation_allowed": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence", "target_specific_coverage": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence", "individual_defender_grade": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence"}}
- Confidence
- supported_prior_season_team_passing_aggregate
- Explanation
- completion: JAX pass-defense advantage; efficiency: JAX pass-defense advantage; touchdown: JAX pass-defense advantage; interception: JAX pass-defense advantage; explosive: JAX pass-defense advantage.
- Contract Version
- nfl_passing_matchup_p9c_v1
- Content Hash
- 5846a9e871b201200adb13a38ef09719190c808aa97c328e0f16f1cca5c112ff
- Derived At
- 2026-08-25 05:06:49
- Published At
- 2026-08-25 05:06:49
- Completion
- Edge
- defense
- State
- supported
- Defense
- Value
- 0.62362204724409
- Numerator
- 396
- League Rank
- 7
- Opponent Attempts
- 635
- Offense
- Value
- 0.57885304659498
- Attempts
- 558
- Numerator
- 323
- League Rank
- 32
- Denominator
- completions / pass attempts
- League Teams
- 32
- League Medians
- Defense
- 0.64707570539544
- Offense
- 0.64437060632689
- Efficiency
- Edge
- defense
- State
- supported
- Defense
- Value
- 6.1937007874016
- Numerator
- 3933
- League Rank
- 3
- Opponent Attempts
- 635
- Offense
- Value
- 5.6487455197133
- Attempts
- 558
- Numerator
- 3152
- League Rank
- 31
- Denominator
- passing yards / pass attempts
- League Teams
- 32
- League Medians
- Defense
- 7.0412356164384
- Offense
- 6.9412788799161
- Touchdown
- Edge
- defense
- State
- supported
- Defense
- Value
- 0.039370078740157
- Numerator
- 25
- League Rank
- 10
- Opponent Attempts
- 635
- Offense
- Value
- 0.028673835125448
- Attempts
- 558
- Numerator
- 16
- League Rank
- 31
- Denominator
- passing touchdowns / pass attempts
- League Teams
- 32
- League Medians
- Defense
- 0.046446437812662
- Offense
- 0.046598461913213
- Interception
- Edge
- defense
- State
- supported
- Defense
- Value
- 0.034645669291339
- Numerator
- 22
- League Rank
- 4
- Opponent Attempts
- 635
- Offense
- Value
- 0.032258064516129
- Attempts
- 558
- Numerator
- 18
- League Rank
- 29
- Denominator
- passing interceptions / pass attempts
- League Teams
- 32
- League Medians
- Defense
- 0.021212711153708
- Offense
- 0.020253294364969
- Explosive
- Edge
- defense
- State
- supported
- Defense
- Value
- 0.07244094488189
- Numerator
- 46
- League Rank
- 4
- Opponent Attempts
- 635
- Offense
- Value
- 0.062724014336918
- Attempts
- 558
- Numerator
- 35
- League Rank
- 30
- Denominator
- retained nflverse 20+ yard passing plays / pass attempts
- League Teams
- 32
- League Medians
- Defense
- 0.088749776745847
- Offense
- 0.085763189295984
- Advanced
- Epa
- unknown_incomplete_and_aggregation_semantics_not_governed
- Cpoe
- unknown_incomplete_and_aggregation_semantics_not_governed
- State
- unknown
- Reason
- EPA/CPOE are activity-dependent and incomplete in retained rows; success rate and 2025 REG PBP are not retained.
- Success Rate
- unknown_not_retained_in_2025_weekly_player_facts
- Coverage
- Man Zone Rate
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Cb Wr Assignment
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Separation Allowed
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Target Specific Coverage
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Individual Defender Grade
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Provenance
- Table
- pardonme_warehouse.nfl_player_week_statistics
- Season
- 2025
- Provider
- nflverse
- Season Type
- REG
- Source Hash
- 661f41cb9dcc7fbd4b5e3e0f755f47ddda7599d15c2fe2b39f29910e4115deac
- Missingness
- Advanced
- Epa
- unknown_incomplete_and_aggregation_semantics_not_governed
- Cpoe
- unknown_incomplete_and_aggregation_semantics_not_governed
- State
- unknown
- Reason
- EPA/CPOE are activity-dependent and incomplete in retained rows; success rate and 2025 REG PBP are not retained.
- Success Rate
- unknown_not_retained_in_2025_weekly_player_facts
- Coverage
- Man Zone Rate
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Cb Wr Assignment
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Separation Allowed
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Target Specific Coverage
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Individual Defender Grade
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- 1
- Game Id
- 10525
- Offense Team Id
- 47
- Defense Team Id
- 40
- Offense Abbr
- JAX
- Defense Abbr
- CLE
- Completion Json
- {"edge": "defense", "state": "supported", "defense": {"value": 0.6324435318275154, "numerator": 308.0, "league_rank": 11, "opponent_attempts": 487.0}, "offense": {"value": 0.61101243339254, "attempts": 563.0, "numerator": 344.0, "league_rank": 27}, "denominator": "completions / pass attempts", "league_teams": 32, "league_medians": {"defense": 0.6470757053954443, "offense": 0.6443706063268893}}
- Efficiency Json
- {"edge": "mixed", "state": "supported", "defense": {"value": 6.611909650924025, "numerator": 3220.0, "league_rank": 9, "opponent_attempts": 487.0}, "offense": {"value": 7.150976909413854, "attempts": 563.0, "numerator": 4026.0, "league_rank": 11}, "denominator": "passing yards / pass attempts", "league_teams": 32, "league_medians": {"defense": 7.041235616438357, "offense": 6.941278879916052}}
- Touchdown Json
- {"edge": "offense", "state": "supported", "defense": {"value": 0.0513347022587269, "numerator": 25.0, "league_rank": 22, "opponent_attempts": 487.0}, "offense": {"value": 0.05150976909413854, "attempts": 563.0, "numerator": 29.0, "league_rank": 11}, "denominator": "passing touchdowns / pass attempts", "league_teams": 32, "league_medians": {"defense": 0.04644643781266172, "offense": 0.04659846191321293}}
- Interception Json
- {"edge": "defense", "state": "supported", "defense": {"value": 0.022587268993839837, "numerator": 11.0, "league_rank": 14, "opponent_attempts": 487.0}, "offense": {"value": 0.02131438721136767, "attempts": 563.0, "numerator": 12.0, "league_rank": 19}, "denominator": "passing interceptions / pass attempts", "league_teams": 32, "league_medians": {"defense": 0.02121271115370792, "offense": 0.02025329436496949}}
- Explosive Json
- {"edge": "mixed", "state": "supported", "defense": {"value": 0.08829568788501027, "numerator": 43.0, "league_rank": 15, "opponent_attempts": 487.0}, "offense": {"value": 0.10124333925399644, "attempts": 563.0, "numerator": 57.0, "league_rank": 9}, "denominator": "retained nflverse 20+ yard passing plays / pass attempts", "league_teams": 32, "league_medians": {"defense": 0.08874977674584747, "offense": 0.08576318929598403}}
- Advanced Json
- {"epa": "unknown_incomplete_and_aggregation_semantics_not_governed", "cpoe": "unknown_incomplete_and_aggregation_semantics_not_governed", "state": "unknown", "reason": "EPA/CPOE are activity-dependent and incomplete in retained rows; success rate and 2025 REG PBP are not retained.", "success_rate": "unknown_not_retained_in_2025_weekly_player_facts"}
- Coverage Json
- {"man_zone_rate": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence", "cb_wr_assignment": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence", "separation_allowed": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence", "target_specific_coverage": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence", "individual_defender_grade": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence"}
- Sample Basis
- 2025 REG nflverse weekly player statistics; full retained team schedule
- Provenance Json
- {"table": "pardonme_warehouse.nfl_player_week_statistics", "season": 2025, "provider": "nflverse", "season_type": "REG", "source_hash": "661f41cb9dcc7fbd4b5e3e0f755f47ddda7599d15c2fe2b39f29910e4115deac"}
- Missingness Json
- {"advanced": {"epa": "unknown_incomplete_and_aggregation_semantics_not_governed", "cpoe": "unknown_incomplete_and_aggregation_semantics_not_governed", "state": "unknown", "reason": "EPA/CPOE are activity-dependent and incomplete in retained rows; success rate and 2025 REG PBP are not retained.", "success_rate": "unknown_not_retained_in_2025_weekly_player_facts"}, "coverage": {"man_zone_rate": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence", "cb_wr_assignment": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence", "separation_allowed": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence", "target_specific_coverage": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence", "individual_defender_grade": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence"}}
- Confidence
- supported_prior_season_team_passing_aggregate
- Explanation
- completion: CLE pass-defense advantage; efficiency: mixed evidence; touchdown: JAX passing-offense advantage; interception: CLE pass-defense advantage; explosive: mixed evidence.
- Contract Version
- nfl_passing_matchup_p9c_v1
- Content Hash
- d82e9415fc06a31cb3690a77a45cacfef9dfca743497197b3fc45e7fdb5e02d4
- Derived At
- 2026-08-25 05:06:49
- Published At
- 2026-08-25 05:06:49
- Completion
- Edge
- defense
- State
- supported
- Defense
- Value
- 0.63244353182752
- Numerator
- 308
- League Rank
- 11
- Opponent Attempts
- 487
- Offense
- Value
- 0.61101243339254
- Attempts
- 563
- Numerator
- 344
- League Rank
- 27
- Denominator
- completions / pass attempts
- League Teams
- 32
- League Medians
- Defense
- 0.64707570539544
- Offense
- 0.64437060632689
- Efficiency
- Edge
- mixed
- State
- supported
- Defense
- Value
- 6.611909650924
- Numerator
- 3220
- League Rank
- 9
- Opponent Attempts
- 487
- Offense
- Value
- 7.1509769094139
- Attempts
- 563
- Numerator
- 4026
- League Rank
- 11
- Denominator
- passing yards / pass attempts
- League Teams
- 32
- League Medians
- Defense
- 7.0412356164384
- Offense
- 6.9412788799161
- Touchdown
- Edge
- offense
- State
- supported
- Defense
- Value
- 0.051334702258727
- Numerator
- 25
- League Rank
- 22
- Opponent Attempts
- 487
- Offense
- Value
- 0.051509769094139
- Attempts
- 563
- Numerator
- 29
- League Rank
- 11
- Denominator
- passing touchdowns / pass attempts
- League Teams
- 32
- League Medians
- Defense
- 0.046446437812662
- Offense
- 0.046598461913213
- Interception
- Edge
- defense
- State
- supported
- Defense
- Value
- 0.02258726899384
- Numerator
- 11
- League Rank
- 14
- Opponent Attempts
- 487
- Offense
- Value
- 0.021314387211368
- Attempts
- 563
- Numerator
- 12
- League Rank
- 19
- Denominator
- passing interceptions / pass attempts
- League Teams
- 32
- League Medians
- Defense
- 0.021212711153708
- Offense
- 0.020253294364969
- Explosive
- Edge
- mixed
- State
- supported
- Defense
- Value
- 0.08829568788501
- Numerator
- 43
- League Rank
- 15
- Opponent Attempts
- 487
- Offense
- Value
- 0.101243339254
- Attempts
- 563
- Numerator
- 57
- League Rank
- 9
- Denominator
- retained nflverse 20+ yard passing plays / pass attempts
- League Teams
- 32
- League Medians
- Defense
- 0.088749776745847
- Offense
- 0.085763189295984
- Advanced
- Epa
- unknown_incomplete_and_aggregation_semantics_not_governed
- Cpoe
- unknown_incomplete_and_aggregation_semantics_not_governed
- State
- unknown
- Reason
- EPA/CPOE are activity-dependent and incomplete in retained rows; success rate and 2025 REG PBP are not retained.
- Success Rate
- unknown_not_retained_in_2025_weekly_player_facts
- Coverage
- Man Zone Rate
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Cb Wr Assignment
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Separation Allowed
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Target Specific Coverage
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Individual Defender Grade
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Provenance
- Table
- pardonme_warehouse.nfl_player_week_statistics
- Season
- 2025
- Provider
- nflverse
- Season Type
- REG
- Source Hash
- 661f41cb9dcc7fbd4b5e3e0f755f47ddda7599d15c2fe2b39f29910e4115deac
- Missingness
- Advanced
- Epa
- unknown_incomplete_and_aggregation_semantics_not_governed
- Cpoe
- unknown_incomplete_and_aggregation_semantics_not_governed
- State
- unknown
- Reason
- EPA/CPOE are activity-dependent and incomplete in retained rows; success rate and 2025 REG PBP are not retained.
- Success Rate
- unknown_not_retained_in_2025_weekly_player_facts
- Coverage
- Man Zone Rate
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Cb Wr Assignment
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Separation Allowed
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Target Specific Coverage
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Individual Defender Grade
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Scoring Opportunities
- Team
- 40
- Game Id
- 10525
- Subject Type
- team
- Subject Id
- 40
- Team Id
- 40
- Opponent Team Id
- 47
- Context Json
- {"state": "supported", "sample": {"season": 2025, "season_type": "REG", "defense_games": 17, "offense_games": 17}, "offense": {"red_zone_plays": {"state": "supported", "value": null, "numerator": 125, "denominator": null, "description": "Pass or rush attempts at the opponent 20 or closer"}, "red_zone_trips": {"state": "supported", "value": null, "numerator": 40, "denominator": null, "description": "Distinct 2025 REG drives with an offensive scrimmage play at the opponent 20 or closer"}, "goal_to_go_trips": {"state": "supported", "value": 0.525, "numerator": 21, "denominator": 40, "description": "Red-zone trips containing a source-flagged goal-to-go play"}, "red_zone_td_conversion": {"state": "supported", "value": 0.5, "numerator": 20, "denominator": 40, "description": "Red-zone trips containing a passing or rushing touchdown"}}, "subject": "team_direction", "boundary": "Prior observed team scoring-opportunity environment only; no 2026 role or touchdown probability is inferred.", "provenance": {"dataset": "play_by_play_2025.csv.gz", "provider": "nflverse", "source_url": "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2025.csv.gz", "source_hash": "2f135887790a013fd004e609e37096bb4816d5cc80b9f19122e1bad478961978"}, "defense_abbr": "JAX", "offense_abbr": "CLE", "defense_allowed": {"red_zone_plays": {"state": "supported", "value": null, "numerator": 146, "denominator": null, "description": "Opponent pass or rush attempts at the 20 or closer"}, "red_zone_trips": {"state": "supported", "value": null, "numerator": 47, "denominator": null, "description": "Distinct opponent red-zone drives allowed"}, "goal_to_go_trips": {"state": "supported", "value": 0.6382978723404256, "numerator": 30, "denominator": 47, "description": "Allowed red-zone trips containing a source-flagged goal-to-go play"}, "red_zone_td_conversion": {"state": "supported", "value": 0.5957446808510638, "numerator": 28, "denominator": 47, "description": "Allowed red-zone trips containing a passing or rushing touchdown"}}}
- Contract Version
- nfl_scoring_opportunity_p9f_v2
- Content Hash
- c58fdf1054dcc7d66cb26088772f9b869ecc633d637845255c5d7c8e4cf7a716
- Derived At
- 2026-08-25 21:54:55
- Published At
- 2026-08-25 21:54:55
- Context
- State
- supported
- Sample
- Season
- 2025
- Season Type
- REG
- Defense Games
- 17
- Offense Games
- 17
- Offense
- Red Zone Plays
- State
- supported
- Value
- —
- Numerator
- 125
- Denominator
- —
- Description
- Pass or rush attempts at the opponent 20 or closer
- Red Zone Trips
- State
- supported
- Value
- —
- Numerator
- 40
- Denominator
- —
- Description
- Distinct 2025 REG drives with an offensive scrimmage play at the opponent 20 or closer
- Goal To Go Trips
- State
- supported
- Value
- 0.525
- Numerator
- 21
- Denominator
- 40
- Description
- Red-zone trips containing a source-flagged goal-to-go play
- Red Zone Td Conversion
- State
- supported
- Value
- 0.5
- Numerator
- 20
- Denominator
- 40
- Description
- Red-zone trips containing a passing or rushing touchdown
- Subject
- team_direction
- Boundary
- Prior observed team scoring-opportunity environment only; no 2026 role or touchdown probability is inferred.
- Provenance
- Dataset
- play_by_play_2025.csv.gz
- Provider
- nflverse
- Source Url
- https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2025.csv.gz
- Source Hash
- 2f135887790a013fd004e609e37096bb4816d5cc80b9f19122e1bad478961978
- Defense Abbr
- JAX
- Offense Abbr
- CLE
- Defense Allowed
- Red Zone Plays
- State
- supported
- Value
- —
- Numerator
- 146
- Denominator
- —
- Description
- Opponent pass or rush attempts at the 20 or closer
- Red Zone Trips
- State
- supported
- Value
- —
- Numerator
- 47
- Denominator
- —
- Description
- Distinct opponent red-zone drives allowed
- Goal To Go Trips
- State
- supported
- Value
- 0.63829787234043
- Numerator
- 30
- Denominator
- 47
- Description
- Allowed red-zone trips containing a source-flagged goal-to-go play
- Red Zone Td Conversion
- State
- supported
- Value
- 0.59574468085106
- Numerator
- 28
- Denominator
- 47
- Description
- Allowed red-zone trips containing a passing or rushing touchdown
- 47
- Game Id
- 10525
- Subject Type
- team
- Subject Id
- 47
- Team Id
- 47
- Opponent Team Id
- 40
- Context Json
- {"state": "supported", "sample": {"season": 2025, "season_type": "REG", "defense_games": 17, "offense_games": 16}, "offense": {"red_zone_plays": {"state": "supported", "value": null, "numerator": 203, "denominator": null, "description": "Pass or rush attempts at the opponent 20 or closer"}, "red_zone_trips": {"state": "supported", "value": null, "numerator": 68, "denominator": null, "description": "Distinct 2025 REG drives with an offensive scrimmage play at the opponent 20 or closer"}, "goal_to_go_trips": {"state": "supported", "value": 0.5147058823529411, "numerator": 35, "denominator": 68, "description": "Red-zone trips containing a source-flagged goal-to-go play"}, "red_zone_td_conversion": {"state": "supported", "value": 0.6323529411764706, "numerator": 43, "denominator": 68, "description": "Red-zone trips containing a passing or rushing touchdown"}}, "subject": "team_direction", "boundary": "Prior observed team scoring-opportunity environment only; no 2026 role or touchdown probability is inferred.", "provenance": {"dataset": "play_by_play_2025.csv.gz", "provider": "nflverse", "source_url": "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2025.csv.gz", "source_hash": "2f135887790a013fd004e609e37096bb4816d5cc80b9f19122e1bad478961978"}, "defense_abbr": "CLE", "offense_abbr": "JAX", "defense_allowed": {"red_zone_plays": {"state": "supported", "value": null, "numerator": 141, "denominator": null, "description": "Opponent pass or rush attempts at the 20 or closer"}, "red_zone_trips": {"state": "supported", "value": null, "numerator": 48, "denominator": null, "description": "Distinct opponent red-zone drives allowed"}, "goal_to_go_trips": {"state": "supported", "value": 0.5625, "numerator": 27, "denominator": 48, "description": "Allowed red-zone trips containing a source-flagged goal-to-go play"}, "red_zone_td_conversion": {"state": "supported", "value": 0.5833333333333334, "numerator": 28, "denominator": 48, "description": "Allowed red-zone trips containing a passing or rushing touchdown"}}}
- Contract Version
- nfl_scoring_opportunity_p9f_v2
- Content Hash
- a31871ad8db9d3b571d0d330c16163e8c3571c86b72ffb916e50d579cbcb9885
- Derived At
- 2026-08-25 21:54:55
- Published At
- 2026-08-25 21:54:55
- Context
- State
- supported
- Sample
- Season
- 2025
- Season Type
- REG
- Defense Games
- 17
- Offense Games
- 16
- Offense
- Red Zone Plays
- State
- supported
- Value
- —
- Numerator
- 203
- Denominator
- —
- Description
- Pass or rush attempts at the opponent 20 or closer
- Red Zone Trips
- State
- supported
- Value
- —
- Numerator
- 68
- Denominator
- —
- Description
- Distinct 2025 REG drives with an offensive scrimmage play at the opponent 20 or closer
- Goal To Go Trips
- State
- supported
- Value
- 0.51470588235294
- Numerator
- 35
- Denominator
- 68
- Description
- Red-zone trips containing a source-flagged goal-to-go play
- Red Zone Td Conversion
- State
- supported
- Value
- 0.63235294117647
- Numerator
- 43
- Denominator
- 68
- Description
- Red-zone trips containing a passing or rushing touchdown
- Subject
- team_direction
- Boundary
- Prior observed team scoring-opportunity environment only; no 2026 role or touchdown probability is inferred.
- Provenance
- Dataset
- play_by_play_2025.csv.gz
- Provider
- nflverse
- Source Url
- https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2025.csv.gz
- Source Hash
- 2f135887790a013fd004e609e37096bb4816d5cc80b9f19122e1bad478961978
- Defense Abbr
- CLE
- Offense Abbr
- JAX
- Defense Allowed
- Red Zone Plays
- State
- supported
- Value
- —
- Numerator
- 141
- Denominator
- —
- Description
- Opponent pass or rush attempts at the 20 or closer
- Red Zone Trips
- State
- supported
- Value
- —
- Numerator
- 48
- Denominator
- —
- Description
- Distinct opponent red-zone drives allowed
- Goal To Go Trips
- State
- supported
- Value
- 0.5625
- Numerator
- 27
- Denominator
- 48
- Description
- Allowed red-zone trips containing a source-flagged goal-to-go play
- Red Zone Td Conversion
- State
- supported
- Value
- 0.58333333333333
- Numerator
- 28
- Denominator
- 48
- Description
- Allowed red-zone trips containing a passing or rushing touchdown
- Player
- Matchup Context
- State
- supported
- Game Id
- 10525
- Position
- TE
- Role
- State
- supported_current_official_depth
- Label
- TE2
- Depth Rank
- 2
- Boundary
- Official depth is role context; it does not establish starter status, snap share or workload share.
- Availability
- State
- not_yet_available
- Headline
- —
- Boundary
- Unknown, not-yet-available and reserve-unknown are not healthy, active, available or reduced-usage conclusions.
- Prior Role
- State
- unknown
- Offense Pct
- —
- Derived Role
- —
- Evidence Label
- no_prior_observed_role
- Boundary
- Backward-looking observed workload does not establish current workload or starter status.
- Projection
- Basis
- model_imputed_baseline
- Boundary
- P9 matchup environments explain context only and do not change the accepted P5 player projection.
- Unit
- Game Id
- 10525
- Offense Team Id
- 47
- Defense Team Id
- 40
- Offense Abbr
- JAX
- Defense Abbr
- CLE
- Pressure Json
- {"state": "unknown", "reason": "Retained nflverse player statistics include QB hits but not total pressure events; QB hits are not relabeled as pressures."}
- Sack Json
- {"edge": "defense", "state": "supported", "defense": {"rate": 0.09814814814814816, "sacks": 53.0, "opponent_dropbacks": 540.0, "league_rank_high_is_best": 3}, "offense": {"rate": 0.06788079470198675, "dropbacks": 604.0, "sacks_allowed": 41.0, "league_rank_low_is_best": 17}, "denominator": "QB dropbacks = pass attempts + sacks suffered", "league_medians": {"defense_sack_rate": 0.06745662047280773, "offense_sack_rate": 0.06683513419309864}}
- Run Json
- {"edge": "defense", "state": "supported", "defense": {"opponent_carries": 475.0, "opponent_rush_yards": 1979.0, "league_rank_low_is_best": 10, "yards_per_carry_allowed": 4.166315789473685}, "offense": {"carries": 489.0, "rush_yards": 1956.0, "yards_per_carry": 4.0, "league_rank_high_is_best": 27}, "denominator": "Retained player carries; rushing yards divided by carries", "league_medians": {"offense_yards_per_carry": 4.319816463259086, "defense_yards_per_carry_allowed": 4.29079863438525}}
- Sample Basis
- 2025 REG nflverse weekly player statistics; full retained team schedule
- Provenance Json
- {"table": "pardonme_warehouse.nfl_player_week_statistics", "season": 2025, "provider": "nflverse", "season_type": "REG", "source_hash": "661f41cb9dcc7fbd4b5e3e0f755f47ddda7599d15c2fe2b39f29910e4115deac"}
- Missingness Json
- {"pressure_rate": "unknown_total_pressure_events_not_retained", "individual_ol_assignments": "unknown", "current_replacement_effect": "unknown_not_inferred_from_depth_or_availability", "pressures_allowed_by_lineman": "unknown"}
- Confidence
- supported_prior_season_team_aggregate
- Explanation
- JAX protection allowed 41.0 sacks on 604 dropbacks (6.8%, league rank 17/32 with low rate best); CLE produced 53.0 sacks on 540 opponent dropbacks (9.8%, rank 3/32 with high rate best). On the ground, JAX averaged 4.00 yards per carry and CLE allowed 4.17. Pressure rate remains Unknown because total pressure events are not retained.
- Contract Version
- nfl_unit_matchup_p9a_v1
- Content Hash
- 2173df5671efa038c478701af49c1f83be9d3a5a26e81b86f21dcf6fe16486a6
- Derived At
- 2026-08-24 19:05:02
- Published At
- 2026-08-24 19:05:02
- Pressure
- State
- unknown
- Reason
- Retained nflverse player statistics include QB hits but not total pressure events; QB hits are not relabeled as pressures.
- Sack
- Edge
- defense
- State
- supported
- Defense
- Rate
- 0.098148148148148
- Sacks
- 53
- Opponent Dropbacks
- 540
- League Rank High Is Best
- 3
- Offense
- Rate
- 0.067880794701987
- Dropbacks
- 604
- Sacks Allowed
- 41
- League Rank Low Is Best
- 17
- Denominator
- QB dropbacks = pass attempts + sacks suffered
- League Medians
- Defense Sack Rate
- 0.067456620472808
- Offense Sack Rate
- 0.066835134193099
- Run
- Edge
- defense
- State
- supported
- Defense
- Opponent Carries
- 475
- Opponent Rush Yards
- 1979
- League Rank Low Is Best
- 10
- Yards Per Carry Allowed
- 4.1663157894737
- Offense
- Carries
- 489
- Rush Yards
- 1956
- Yards Per Carry
- 4
- League Rank High Is Best
- 27
- Denominator
- Retained player carries; rushing yards divided by carries
- League Medians
- Offense Yards Per Carry
- 4.3198164632591
- Defense Yards Per Carry Allowed
- 4.2907986343852
- Provenance
- Table
- pardonme_warehouse.nfl_player_week_statistics
- Season
- 2025
- Provider
- nflverse
- Season Type
- REG
- Source Hash
- 661f41cb9dcc7fbd4b5e3e0f755f47ddda7599d15c2fe2b39f29910e4115deac
- Missingness
- Pressure Rate
- unknown_total_pressure_events_not_retained
- Individual Ol Assignments
- unknown
- Current Replacement Effect
- unknown_not_inferred_from_depth_or_availability
- Pressures Allowed By Lineman
- unknown
- Passing
- Game Id
- 10525
- Offense Team Id
- 47
- Defense Team Id
- 40
- Offense Abbr
- JAX
- Defense Abbr
- CLE
- Completion Json
- {"edge": "defense", "state": "supported", "defense": {"value": 0.6324435318275154, "numerator": 308.0, "league_rank": 11, "opponent_attempts": 487.0}, "offense": {"value": 0.61101243339254, "attempts": 563.0, "numerator": 344.0, "league_rank": 27}, "denominator": "completions / pass attempts", "league_teams": 32, "league_medians": {"defense": 0.6470757053954443, "offense": 0.6443706063268893}}
- Efficiency Json
- {"edge": "mixed", "state": "supported", "defense": {"value": 6.611909650924025, "numerator": 3220.0, "league_rank": 9, "opponent_attempts": 487.0}, "offense": {"value": 7.150976909413854, "attempts": 563.0, "numerator": 4026.0, "league_rank": 11}, "denominator": "passing yards / pass attempts", "league_teams": 32, "league_medians": {"defense": 7.041235616438357, "offense": 6.941278879916052}}
- Touchdown Json
- {"edge": "offense", "state": "supported", "defense": {"value": 0.0513347022587269, "numerator": 25.0, "league_rank": 22, "opponent_attempts": 487.0}, "offense": {"value": 0.05150976909413854, "attempts": 563.0, "numerator": 29.0, "league_rank": 11}, "denominator": "passing touchdowns / pass attempts", "league_teams": 32, "league_medians": {"defense": 0.04644643781266172, "offense": 0.04659846191321293}}
- Interception Json
- {"edge": "defense", "state": "supported", "defense": {"value": 0.022587268993839837, "numerator": 11.0, "league_rank": 14, "opponent_attempts": 487.0}, "offense": {"value": 0.02131438721136767, "attempts": 563.0, "numerator": 12.0, "league_rank": 19}, "denominator": "passing interceptions / pass attempts", "league_teams": 32, "league_medians": {"defense": 0.02121271115370792, "offense": 0.02025329436496949}}
- Explosive Json
- {"edge": "mixed", "state": "supported", "defense": {"value": 0.08829568788501027, "numerator": 43.0, "league_rank": 15, "opponent_attempts": 487.0}, "offense": {"value": 0.10124333925399644, "attempts": 563.0, "numerator": 57.0, "league_rank": 9}, "denominator": "retained nflverse 20+ yard passing plays / pass attempts", "league_teams": 32, "league_medians": {"defense": 0.08874977674584747, "offense": 0.08576318929598403}}
- Advanced Json
- {"epa": "unknown_incomplete_and_aggregation_semantics_not_governed", "cpoe": "unknown_incomplete_and_aggregation_semantics_not_governed", "state": "unknown", "reason": "EPA/CPOE are activity-dependent and incomplete in retained rows; success rate and 2025 REG PBP are not retained.", "success_rate": "unknown_not_retained_in_2025_weekly_player_facts"}
- Coverage Json
- {"man_zone_rate": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence", "cb_wr_assignment": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence", "separation_allowed": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence", "target_specific_coverage": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence", "individual_defender_grade": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence"}
- Sample Basis
- 2025 REG nflverse weekly player statistics; full retained team schedule
- Provenance Json
- {"table": "pardonme_warehouse.nfl_player_week_statistics", "season": 2025, "provider": "nflverse", "season_type": "REG", "source_hash": "661f41cb9dcc7fbd4b5e3e0f755f47ddda7599d15c2fe2b39f29910e4115deac"}
- Missingness Json
- {"advanced": {"epa": "unknown_incomplete_and_aggregation_semantics_not_governed", "cpoe": "unknown_incomplete_and_aggregation_semantics_not_governed", "state": "unknown", "reason": "EPA/CPOE are activity-dependent and incomplete in retained rows; success rate and 2025 REG PBP are not retained.", "success_rate": "unknown_not_retained_in_2025_weekly_player_facts"}, "coverage": {"man_zone_rate": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence", "cb_wr_assignment": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence", "separation_allowed": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence", "target_specific_coverage": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence", "individual_defender_grade": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence"}}
- Confidence
- supported_prior_season_team_passing_aggregate
- Explanation
- completion: CLE pass-defense advantage; efficiency: mixed evidence; touchdown: JAX passing-offense advantage; interception: CLE pass-defense advantage; explosive: mixed evidence.
- Contract Version
- nfl_passing_matchup_p9c_v1
- Content Hash
- d82e9415fc06a31cb3690a77a45cacfef9dfca743497197b3fc45e7fdb5e02d4
- Derived At
- 2026-08-25 05:06:49
- Published At
- 2026-08-25 05:06:49
- Completion
- Edge
- defense
- State
- supported
- Defense
- Value
- 0.63244353182752
- Numerator
- 308
- League Rank
- 11
- Opponent Attempts
- 487
- Offense
- Value
- 0.61101243339254
- Attempts
- 563
- Numerator
- 344
- League Rank
- 27
- Denominator
- completions / pass attempts
- League Teams
- 32
- League Medians
- Defense
- 0.64707570539544
- Offense
- 0.64437060632689
- Efficiency
- Edge
- mixed
- State
- supported
- Defense
- Value
- 6.611909650924
- Numerator
- 3220
- League Rank
- 9
- Opponent Attempts
- 487
- Offense
- Value
- 7.1509769094139
- Attempts
- 563
- Numerator
- 4026
- League Rank
- 11
- Denominator
- passing yards / pass attempts
- League Teams
- 32
- League Medians
- Defense
- 7.0412356164384
- Offense
- 6.9412788799161
- Touchdown
- Edge
- offense
- State
- supported
- Defense
- Value
- 0.051334702258727
- Numerator
- 25
- League Rank
- 22
- Opponent Attempts
- 487
- Offense
- Value
- 0.051509769094139
- Attempts
- 563
- Numerator
- 29
- League Rank
- 11
- Denominator
- passing touchdowns / pass attempts
- League Teams
- 32
- League Medians
- Defense
- 0.046446437812662
- Offense
- 0.046598461913213
- Interception
- Edge
- defense
- State
- supported
- Defense
- Value
- 0.02258726899384
- Numerator
- 11
- League Rank
- 14
- Opponent Attempts
- 487
- Offense
- Value
- 0.021314387211368
- Attempts
- 563
- Numerator
- 12
- League Rank
- 19
- Denominator
- passing interceptions / pass attempts
- League Teams
- 32
- League Medians
- Defense
- 0.021212711153708
- Offense
- 0.020253294364969
- Explosive
- Edge
- mixed
- State
- supported
- Defense
- Value
- 0.08829568788501
- Numerator
- 43
- League Rank
- 15
- Opponent Attempts
- 487
- Offense
- Value
- 0.101243339254
- Attempts
- 563
- Numerator
- 57
- League Rank
- 9
- Denominator
- retained nflverse 20+ yard passing plays / pass attempts
- League Teams
- 32
- League Medians
- Defense
- 0.088749776745847
- Offense
- 0.085763189295984
- Advanced
- Epa
- unknown_incomplete_and_aggregation_semantics_not_governed
- Cpoe
- unknown_incomplete_and_aggregation_semantics_not_governed
- State
- unknown
- Reason
- EPA/CPOE are activity-dependent and incomplete in retained rows; success rate and 2025 REG PBP are not retained.
- Success Rate
- unknown_not_retained_in_2025_weekly_player_facts
- Coverage
- Man Zone Rate
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Cb Wr Assignment
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Separation Allowed
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Target Specific Coverage
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Individual Defender Grade
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Provenance
- Table
- pardonme_warehouse.nfl_player_week_statistics
- Season
- 2025
- Provider
- nflverse
- Season Type
- REG
- Source Hash
- 661f41cb9dcc7fbd4b5e3e0f755f47ddda7599d15c2fe2b39f29910e4115deac
- Missingness
- Advanced
- Epa
- unknown_incomplete_and_aggregation_semantics_not_governed
- Cpoe
- unknown_incomplete_and_aggregation_semantics_not_governed
- State
- unknown
- Reason
- EPA/CPOE are activity-dependent and incomplete in retained rows; success rate and 2025 REG PBP are not retained.
- Success Rate
- unknown_not_retained_in_2025_weekly_player_facts
- Coverage
- Man Zone Rate
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Cb Wr Assignment
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Separation Allowed
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Target Specific Coverage
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Individual Defender Grade
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Scoring Opportunity
- Player
- State
- unknown
- Reason
- No supported prior scoring-opportunity evidence
- Team Matchup
- State
- supported
- Sample
- Season
- 2025
- Season Type
- REG
- Defense Games
- 17
- Offense Games
- 16
- Offense
- Red Zone Plays
- State
- supported
- Value
- —
- Numerator
- 203
- Denominator
- —
- Description
- Pass or rush attempts at the opponent 20 or closer
- Red Zone Trips
- State
- supported
- Value
- —
- Numerator
- 68
- Denominator
- —
- Description
- Distinct 2025 REG drives with an offensive scrimmage play at the opponent 20 or closer
- Goal To Go Trips
- State
- supported
- Value
- 0.51470588235294
- Numerator
- 35
- Denominator
- 68
- Description
- Red-zone trips containing a source-flagged goal-to-go play
- Red Zone Td Conversion
- State
- supported
- Value
- 0.63235294117647
- Numerator
- 43
- Denominator
- 68
- Description
- Red-zone trips containing a passing or rushing touchdown
- Subject
- team_direction
- Boundary
- Prior observed team scoring-opportunity environment only; no 2026 role or touchdown probability is inferred.
- Provenance
- Dataset
- play_by_play_2025.csv.gz
- Provider
- nflverse
- Source Url
- https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2025.csv.gz
- Source Hash
- 2f135887790a013fd004e609e37096bb4816d5cc80b9f19122e1bad478961978
- Defense Abbr
- CLE
- Offense Abbr
- JAX
- Defense Allowed
- Red Zone Plays
- State
- supported
- Value
- —
- Numerator
- 141
- Denominator
- —
- Description
- Opponent pass or rush attempts at the 20 or closer
- Red Zone Trips
- State
- supported
- Value
- —
- Numerator
- 48
- Denominator
- —
- Description
- Distinct opponent red-zone drives allowed
- Goal To Go Trips
- State
- supported
- Value
- 0.5625
- Numerator
- 27
- Denominator
- 48
- Description
- Allowed red-zone trips containing a source-flagged goal-to-go play
- Red Zone Td Conversion
- State
- supported
- Value
- 0.58333333333333
- Numerator
- 28
- Denominator
- 48
- Description
- Allowed red-zone trips containing a passing or rushing touchdown
- Boundary
- Prior 2025 scoring-opportunity evidence is explanation only and does not change P5 or calculate touchdown probability.
- Individual Coverage
- unknown_team_environment_is_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Replacement Effect
- unknown_not_inferred_from_depth_or_availability
- Primary Context
- 0
- passing
- Broader Context
- 0
- sack
- Boundary
- Team pass defense is not a CB assignment, separation, man/zone matchup or individual defender grade. No target or workload effect is inferred.
These are explanation-only values. Pressure, individual assignments, coverage and replacement effects remain unavailable unless retained above.
Sources & Methodology
Official depth, provider box scores, governed fantasy serving, EA ratings, PardonMe projections, matchup context and market comparisons retain source lineage. Markets are not model inputs.
Methodology: P5 is read-only workload and fantasy serving. P10 distributions are independent, governed models. P9 context and Madden analysis explain rather than adjust them. Missing, insufficient, conflicting, stale, or unsupported evidence remains unavailable.
Provenance: nflverse season totals, provider game evidence, official availability/depth, EA ratings and dated observations are shown with their retained fields above.