NFL player
Nate Boerkircher
Jacksonville Jaguars · TE · #87
Height6'5"
Weight250 lb
CollegeTexas A&M; Nebraska
Right now
SeasonProduction unavailable
PardonMe this weekvs TEN · Sun Nov 15 · 6:00 PM
Targets3.6
Receptions2.6
Rec yards26
TD chance17%
Full-PPR4.6
Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence · Full-PPR range 0.0–10.8
Today
Matchupvs TEN · Unknown
Role and prior workload55% offense · backward-looking, not a starter or share inference
Projected targets2.2
ProjectionIndividualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence · 80% Full-PPR 0.0–10.8
Matchup explanation
Team pass defense is not a CB assignment, separation, man/zone matchup or individual defender grade. No target or workload effect is inferred. Pressure, individual coverage and replacement effects remain unavailable.
- Current Role
- State
- available
- Team Abbr
- JAX
- Depth Rank
- 2
- Position Code
- TE
- Depth Position
- TE
- Evidence Label
- current_2026_official_preseason_depth
- Roster Membership
- active
- Formal Roster Status
- active
- Source Manifest Hash
- 732ebe06c9f5c4543eee5ef358968ab7c7840ba4c2371494768980a278dff973
- Prior Observed Role
- State
- available
- Game Id
- 2026_09_JAX_BAL
- Team Abbr
- JAX
- Depth Rank
- 2
- Defense Pct
- 0
- Offense Pct
- 0.55
- Season Type
- REG
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 9
- Derived Role
- primary_backup
- Starter State
- not_supported
- Evidence Label
- same_season_prior_week_observed_role
- Special Teams Pct
- 0.11
- Source Manifest Hash
- 693bb476c22361175263a09f125d5a8a1deb2b76b2d04a8b281629f75dd28e03
- Role Continuity Games
- 2
- Context
- State
- unknown
- Game Id
- 10658
- Position
- TE
- Role
- State
- supported_current_official_depth
- Label
- TE2
- Depth Rank
- 2
- Boundary
- Official depth is role context; it does not establish starter status, snap share or workload share.
- Availability
- State
- unknown
- Headline
- Limited
- Boundary
- Unknown, not-yet-available and reserve-unknown are not healthy, active, available or reduced-usage conclusions.
- Prior Role
- State
- available
- Offense Pct
- 0.55
- Derived Role
- primary_backup
- Evidence Label
- same_season_prior_week_observed_role
- Boundary
- Backward-looking observed workload does not establish current workload or starter status.
- Projection
- Basis
- evidence_backed_individualized_projection
- Boundary
- P9 matchup environments explain context only and do not change the accepted P5 player projection.
- Unit
- —
- Passing
- —
- Scoring Opportunity
- Player
- State
- unknown
- Reason
- No supported prior scoring-opportunity evidence
- Team Matchup
- State
- unknown
- Reason
- No supported prior team scoring-opportunity evidence
- Boundary
- Prior 2025 scoring-opportunity evidence is explanation only and does not change P5 or calculate touchdown probability.
- Individual Coverage
- unknown_team_environment_is_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Replacement Effect
- unknown_not_inferred_from_depth_or_availability
- Primary Context
- 0
- passing
- Broader Context
- 0
- sack
- Boundary
- Team pass defense is not a CB assignment, separation, man/zone matchup or individual defender grade. No target or workload effect is inferred.
Game environment
Nissan Stadium · Open Air · Artificial Turf · weather Unknown
Outdoor weather-sensitive environment; weather evidence Unknown.
Current touchdown outlook
11.5% anytime TD. Correlation is explanation only.
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 10
- Game Id
- 10658
- Player Id
- 1280
- Team Id
- 47
- Opponent Team Id
- 63
- Position Code
- TE
- Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Support State
- supported_anytime
- Projection State
- individualized
- Anytime Probability
- 0.1150500000
- Exactly One Probability
- 0.1062000000
- Two Plus Probability
- 0.0088500000
- Probability Json
- {"p_0": 0.88495, "p_1": 0.1062, "p_2_plus": 0.00885, "p_anytime": 0.11505, "multi_td_support": "supported"}
- Lineage Json
- {"p5_week_hash": "a2254ba8c0a3d262499ea5e2bb07d419b91aa632dd74faa1ca8d39f91285e627", "draw_contract": "P10 marginal summary only; cross-player draw indices are never aligned", "evidence_version": "nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1", "p10_content_hash": "d50cfa5650090706b0af6245ec6efb585ac7e6f78f3ea17a8891325c2ce4cc68", "p10_model_version": "nfl_p10c_wrte_signals_v1", "selection_version": "nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1", "availability_state": "unknown", "joint_model_version": "nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1", "market_is_model_input": false}
- Content Hash
- bd332f5e3110ae7604cb70f736927bca17f85a9cdf0184f3ce9b01f69d08c6b4
- Observed At
- 2026-11-10 11:36:37
- Generated At
- 2026-11-14 11:47:34
- Published At
- 2026-11-14 11:47:34
- Probability
- P 0
- 0.88495
- P 1
- 0.1062
- P 2 Plus
- 0.00885
- P Anytime
- 0.11505
- Multi Td Support
- supported
- Lineage
- P5 Week Hash
- a2254ba8c0a3d262499ea5e2bb07d419b91aa632dd74faa1ca8d39f91285e627
- Draw Contract
- P10 marginal summary only; cross-player draw indices are never aligned
- Evidence Version
- nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1
- P10 Content Hash
- d50cfa5650090706b0af6245ec6efb585ac7e6f78f3ea17a8891325c2ce4cc68
- P10 Model Version
- nfl_p10c_wrte_signals_v1
- Selection Version
- nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1
- Availability State
- unknown
- Joint Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Market Is Model Input
Touchdown Connections
Nate Boerkircher + Trevor Lawrence · Supported Empirical Dependence
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 2
- Game Id
- 10542
- Player A Id
- 1280
- Player B Id
- 1298
- Event A Kind
- scorer_td
- Event B Kind
- passing_td
- Relationship Class
- qb_pass_receiver
- Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Support State
- supported_empirical_dependence
- Projection State
- fallback
- Player A Probability
- 0.1707000000
- Player B Probability
- 0.8475000000
- Both Probability
- 0.1661889014
- Either Probability
- 0.8520110986
- Exactly One Probability
- 0.6858221972
- Neither Probability
- 0.1479889014
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.1960930990
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.9735729431
- Naive Probability
- 0.1446682500
- Absolute Difference
- 0.0215206514
- Relative Difference
- 0.1487586349
- Dependence Direction
- positive
- Probability Json
- {"p_a": 0.1707, "p_b": 0.8475, "both": 0.16618890138929038, "a_only": 0.004511098610709613, "b_only": 0.6813110986107096, "either": 0.8520110986107096, "neither": 0.14798890138929044, "simulation": {"seed": 1066253004, "draw_count": 20000, "simulated_both": 0.1655, "absolute_error_from_analytic": 0.0006889013892903695}, "exactly_one": 0.6858221972214192, "naive_independence": 0.14466825, "absolute_difference": 0.02152065138929038, "relative_difference": 0.14875863494091052, "dependence_direction": "positive", "conditional_a_given_b": 0.1960930989844134, "conditional_b_given_a": 0.9735729431124216}
- Explanation Json
- {"short": "A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.", "football_structure": "A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.", "dependence_direction": "positive"}
- Lineage Json
- {"p10_a": {"content_hash": "8bd3ba09714e53c604c1707b71fba27a89ac33251fa1c958d731325d18982524", "model_version": "nfl_p10c_wrte_empirical_v1"}, "p10_b": {"content_hash": "f8230ad321dd3e06ac2d7277bd67115ce39753d840f01cdec17d5bff2788f803", "model_version": "nfl_p10a_qb_signals_v1"}, "odds_ratio": 8.002089024495183, "pair_order": "ascending canonical player_id", "p5_week_hash": "d29eadad3b5c88c27d20fafd4be6fa1d5fbe0b44036b8dc0bd9f724b5849a09a", "evidence_version": "nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1", "selection_version": "nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1", "selected_candidate": "class_or_shrink_5000", "joint_model_version": "nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1", "market_is_model_input": false, "cross_player_p10_draw_alignment": "prohibited"}
- Content Hash
- 77c56856383df4b6f1537777f7e16fbdf9c2240fb3ff18b224d0963a1e47b232
- Observed At
- 2026-09-17 23:48:31
- Generated At
- 2026-09-18 00:03:07
- Published At
- 2026-09-18 00:03:07
- Player A Name
- Nate Boerkircher
- Player B Name
- Trevor Lawrence
- Probability
- P A
- 0.1707
- P B
- 0.8475
- Both
- 0.16618890138929
- A Only
- 0.0045110986107096
- B Only
- 0.68131109861071
- Either
- 0.85201109861071
- Neither
- 0.14798890138929
- Simulation
- Seed
- 1066253004
- Draw Count
- 20000
- Simulated Both
- 0.1655
- Absolute Error From Analytic
- 0.00068890138929037
- Exactly One
- 0.68582219722142
- Naive Independence
- 0.14466825
- Absolute Difference
- 0.02152065138929
- Relative Difference
- 0.14875863494091
- Dependence Direction
- positive
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.19609309898441
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.97357294311242
- Explanation
- Short
- A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.
- Football Structure
- A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.
- Dependence Direction
- positive
- Lineage
- P10 A
- Content Hash
- 8bd3ba09714e53c604c1707b71fba27a89ac33251fa1c958d731325d18982524
- Model Version
- nfl_p10c_wrte_empirical_v1
- P10 B
- Content Hash
- f8230ad321dd3e06ac2d7277bd67115ce39753d840f01cdec17d5bff2788f803
- Model Version
- nfl_p10a_qb_signals_v1
- Odds Ratio
- 8.0020890244952
- Pair Order
- ascending canonical player_id
- P5 Week Hash
- d29eadad3b5c88c27d20fafd4be6fa1d5fbe0b44036b8dc0bd9f724b5849a09a
- Evidence Version
- nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1
- Selection Version
- nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1
- Selected Candidate
- class_or_shrink_5000
- Joint Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Market Is Model Input
- Cross Player P10 Draw Alignment
- prohibited
Nate Boerkircher + Trevor Lawrence · Supported Empirical Dependence
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 1
- Game Id
- 10525
- Player A Id
- 1280
- Player B Id
- 1298
- Event A Kind
- scorer_td
- Event B Kind
- passing_td
- Relationship Class
- qb_pass_receiver
- Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Support State
- supported_empirical_dependence
- Projection State
- fallback
- Player A Probability
- 0.1675000000
- Player B Probability
- 0.8498000000
- Both Probability
- 0.1631681957
- Either Probability
- 0.8541318043
- Exactly One Probability
- 0.6909636086
- Neither Probability
- 0.1458681957
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.1920077615
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.9741384818
- Naive Probability
- 0.1423415000
- Absolute Difference
- 0.0208266957
- Relative Difference
- 0.1463149939
- Dependence Direction
- positive
- Probability Json
- {"p_a": 0.1675, "p_b": 0.8498, "both": 0.163168195702793, "a_only": 0.004331804297207004, "b_only": 0.686631804297207, "either": 0.854131804297207, "neither": 0.14586819570279286, "simulation": {"seed": 1064553004, "draw_count": 20000, "simulated_both": 0.16145, "absolute_error_from_analytic": 0.0017181957027929962}, "exactly_one": 0.6909636085944141, "naive_independence": 0.1423415, "absolute_difference": 0.020826695702792997, "relative_difference": 0.1463149938899969, "dependence_direction": "positive", "conditional_a_given_b": 0.1920077614765745, "conditional_b_given_a": 0.9741384818077192}
- Explanation Json
- {"short": "A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.", "football_structure": "A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.", "dependence_direction": "positive"}
- Lineage Json
- {"p10_a": {"content_hash": "a5f9ed095d2dc8a7d240fb0989e516df94fdf6da425e1d03207b09238aeb519e", "model_version": "nfl_p10c_wrte_empirical_v1"}, "p10_b": {"content_hash": "b1f8438ebe59e03f93e97b112af1d08248580a2228e9aa7b699e7a1d08ecec96", "model_version": "nfl_p10d_qb_empirical_v4"}, "odds_ratio": 8.002089024495183, "pair_order": "ascending canonical player_id", "p5_week_hash": "a2254ba8c0a3d262499ea5e2bb07d419b91aa632dd74faa1ca8d39f91285e627", "evidence_version": "nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1", "selection_version": "nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1", "selected_candidate": "class_or_shrink_5000", "joint_model_version": "nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1", "market_is_model_input": false, "cross_player_p10_draw_alignment": "prohibited"}
- Content Hash
- 1df0474bdee63dc237a95ce5e50c4636930ec3349076979708a3add747df8594
- Observed At
- 2026-09-01 23:59:00
- Generated At
- 2026-09-10 11:37:58
- Published At
- 2026-09-10 11:37:58
- Player A Name
- Nate Boerkircher
- Player B Name
- Trevor Lawrence
- Probability
- P A
- 0.1675
- P B
- 0.8498
- Both
- 0.16316819570279
- A Only
- 0.004331804297207
- B Only
- 0.68663180429721
- Either
- 0.85413180429721
- Neither
- 0.14586819570279
- Simulation
- Seed
- 1064553004
- Draw Count
- 20000
- Simulated Both
- 0.16145
- Absolute Error From Analytic
- 0.001718195702793
- Exactly One
- 0.69096360859441
- Naive Independence
- 0.1423415
- Absolute Difference
- 0.020826695702793
- Relative Difference
- 0.14631499389
- Dependence Direction
- positive
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.19200776147657
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.97413848180772
- Explanation
- Short
- A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.
- Football Structure
- A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.
- Dependence Direction
- positive
- Lineage
- P10 A
- Content Hash
- a5f9ed095d2dc8a7d240fb0989e516df94fdf6da425e1d03207b09238aeb519e
- Model Version
- nfl_p10c_wrte_empirical_v1
- P10 B
- Content Hash
- b1f8438ebe59e03f93e97b112af1d08248580a2228e9aa7b699e7a1d08ecec96
- Model Version
- nfl_p10d_qb_empirical_v4
- Odds Ratio
- 8.0020890244952
- Pair Order
- ascending canonical player_id
- P5 Week Hash
- a2254ba8c0a3d262499ea5e2bb07d419b91aa632dd74faa1ca8d39f91285e627
- Evidence Version
- nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1
- Selection Version
- nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1
- Selected Candidate
- class_or_shrink_5000
- Joint Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Market Is Model Input
- Cross Player P10 Draw Alignment
- prohibited
Nate Boerkircher + Trevor Lawrence · Supported Empirical Dependence
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 6
- Game Id
- 10597
- Player A Id
- 1280
- Player B Id
- 1298
- Event A Kind
- scorer_td
- Event B Kind
- passing_td
- Relationship Class
- qb_pass_receiver
- Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Support State
- supported_empirical_dependence
- Projection State
- fallback
- Player A Probability
- 0.1073000000
- Player B Probability
- 0.7960000000
- Both Probability
- 0.1035573257
- Either Probability
- 0.7997426743
- Exactly One Probability
- 0.6961853486
- Neither Probability
- 0.2002573257
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.1300971428
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.9651195312
- Naive Probability
- 0.0854108000
- Absolute Difference
- 0.0181465257
- Relative Difference
- 0.2124617226
- Dependence Direction
- positive
- Probability Json
- {"p_a": 0.1073, "p_b": 0.796, "both": 0.10355732569980323, "a_only": 0.0037426743001967577, "b_only": 0.6924426743001968, "either": 0.7997426743001967, "neither": 0.20025732569980328, "simulation": {"seed": 1071753004, "draw_count": 20000, "simulated_both": 0.10485, "absolute_error_from_analytic": 0.00129267430019675}, "exactly_one": 0.6961853486003935, "naive_independence": 0.08541080000000001, "absolute_difference": 0.01814652569980324, "relative_difference": 0.21246172263698784, "dependence_direction": "positive", "conditional_a_given_b": 0.1300971428389488, "conditional_b_given_a": 0.9651195312190424}
- Explanation Json
- {"short": "A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.", "football_structure": "A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.", "dependence_direction": "positive"}
- Lineage Json
- {"p10_a": {"content_hash": "a266e161d83695cc4a015607ee3db30faddd75bbde876e3346b56854c85b83c1", "model_version": "nfl_p10c_wrte_signals_v1"}, "p10_b": {"content_hash": "adf9f0ef21dbacb1e0bb9435facbf83187475b6d440e142faff076e5a5cf9d6b", "model_version": "nfl_p10a_qb_signals_v1"}, "odds_ratio": 8.002089024495183, "pair_order": "ascending canonical player_id", "p5_week_hash": "2756af9cfd0e102960aa259fd190a7120e93eb926ddc2f3089a38a0c2010be78", "evidence_version": "nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1", "selection_version": "nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1", "selected_candidate": "class_or_shrink_5000", "joint_model_version": "nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1", "market_is_model_input": false, "cross_player_p10_draw_alignment": "prohibited"}
- Content Hash
- b56ef7faf90d277e12368aee6344ccdd1ef941bae5587b1524ac15fadf489557
- Observed At
- 2026-10-16 11:00:10
- Generated At
- 2026-10-16 11:36:55
- Published At
- 2026-10-16 11:36:55
- Player A Name
- Nate Boerkircher
- Player B Name
- Trevor Lawrence
- Probability
- P A
- 0.1073
- P B
- 0.796
- Both
- 0.1035573256998
- A Only
- 0.0037426743001968
- B Only
- 0.6924426743002
- Either
- 0.7997426743002
- Neither
- 0.2002573256998
- Simulation
- Seed
- 1071753004
- Draw Count
- 20000
- Simulated Both
- 0.10485
- Absolute Error From Analytic
- 0.0012926743001968
- Exactly One
- 0.69618534860039
- Naive Independence
- 0.0854108
- Absolute Difference
- 0.018146525699803
- Relative Difference
- 0.21246172263699
- Dependence Direction
- positive
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.13009714283895
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.96511953121904
- Explanation
- Short
- A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.
- Football Structure
- A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.
- Dependence Direction
- positive
- Lineage
- P10 A
- Content Hash
- a266e161d83695cc4a015607ee3db30faddd75bbde876e3346b56854c85b83c1
- Model Version
- nfl_p10c_wrte_signals_v1
- P10 B
- Content Hash
- adf9f0ef21dbacb1e0bb9435facbf83187475b6d440e142faff076e5a5cf9d6b
- Model Version
- nfl_p10a_qb_signals_v1
- Odds Ratio
- 8.0020890244952
- Pair Order
- ascending canonical player_id
- P5 Week Hash
- 2756af9cfd0e102960aa259fd190a7120e93eb926ddc2f3089a38a0c2010be78
- Evidence Version
- nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1
- Selection Version
- nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1
- Selected Candidate
- class_or_shrink_5000
- Joint Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Market Is Model Input
- Cross Player P10 Draw Alignment
- prohibited
Nate Boerkircher + Trevor Lawrence · Supported Empirical Dependence
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 5
- Game Id
- 10582
- Player A Id
- 1280
- Player B Id
- 1298
- Event A Kind
- scorer_td
- Event B Kind
- passing_td
- Relationship Class
- qb_pass_receiver
- Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Support State
- supported_empirical_dependence
- Projection State
- fallback
- Player A Probability
- 0.1096000000
- Player B Probability
- 0.8571500000
- Both Probability
- 0.1070957623
- Either Probability
- 0.8596542377
- Exactly One Probability
- 0.7525584753
- Neither Probability
- 0.1403457623
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.1249440149
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.9771511162
- Naive Probability
- 0.0939436400
- Absolute Difference
- 0.0131521223
- Relative Difference
- 0.1400001356
- Dependence Direction
- positive
- Probability Json
- {"p_a": 0.1096, "p_b": 0.85715, "both": 0.10709576233793204, "a_only": 0.0025042376620679485, "b_only": 0.7500542376620679, "either": 0.8596542376620679, "neither": 0.14034576233793206, "simulation": {"seed": 1070253004, "draw_count": 20000, "simulated_both": 0.1063, "absolute_error_from_analytic": 0.0007957623379320489}, "exactly_one": 0.7525584753241359, "naive_independence": 0.09394364, "absolute_difference": 0.01315212233793206, "relative_difference": 0.14000013559121258, "dependence_direction": "positive", "conditional_a_given_b": 0.1249440148607969, "conditional_b_given_a": 0.9771511162220078}
- Explanation Json
- {"short": "A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.", "football_structure": "A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.", "dependence_direction": "positive"}
- Lineage Json
- {"p10_a": {"content_hash": "0c4a6cb813b16cc0e4b66608e51819298a13ce86d5de6b5630de2861c64861e9", "model_version": "nfl_p10c_wrte_signals_v1"}, "p10_b": {"content_hash": "2306bc74c3784838de7a9d96febfacdba8f9ae357b9589738118ae66f8cfe272", "model_version": "nfl_p10a_qb_signals_v1"}, "odds_ratio": 8.002089024495183, "pair_order": "ascending canonical player_id", "p5_week_hash": "a22618b1295121dc2feb665608ebc05ca4748ef9ecc0b84be4b754062b692cec", "evidence_version": "nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1", "selection_version": "nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1", "selected_candidate": "class_or_shrink_5000", "joint_model_version": "nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1", "market_is_model_input": false, "cross_player_p10_draw_alignment": "prohibited"}
- Content Hash
- ee5ed93112193887379eb47f5e2c131cfc477a1ccde35b3cd5d45cba1e26c49e
- Observed At
- 2026-10-09 15:19:01
- Generated At
- 2026-10-10 11:39:05
- Published At
- 2026-10-10 11:39:05
- Player A Name
- Nate Boerkircher
- Player B Name
- Trevor Lawrence
- Probability
- P A
- 0.1096
- P B
- 0.85715
- Both
- 0.10709576233793
- A Only
- 0.0025042376620679
- B Only
- 0.75005423766207
- Either
- 0.85965423766207
- Neither
- 0.14034576233793
- Simulation
- Seed
- 1070253004
- Draw Count
- 20000
- Simulated Both
- 0.1063
- Absolute Error From Analytic
- 0.00079576233793205
- Exactly One
- 0.75255847532414
- Naive Independence
- 0.09394364
- Absolute Difference
- 0.013152122337932
- Relative Difference
- 0.14000013559121
- Dependence Direction
- positive
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.1249440148608
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.97715111622201
- Explanation
- Short
- A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.
- Football Structure
- A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.
- Dependence Direction
- positive
- Lineage
- P10 A
- Content Hash
- 0c4a6cb813b16cc0e4b66608e51819298a13ce86d5de6b5630de2861c64861e9
- Model Version
- nfl_p10c_wrte_signals_v1
- P10 B
- Content Hash
- 2306bc74c3784838de7a9d96febfacdba8f9ae357b9589738118ae66f8cfe272
- Model Version
- nfl_p10a_qb_signals_v1
- Odds Ratio
- 8.0020890244952
- Pair Order
- ascending canonical player_id
- P5 Week Hash
- a22618b1295121dc2feb665608ebc05ca4748ef9ecc0b84be4b754062b692cec
- Evidence Version
- nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1
- Selection Version
- nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1
- Selected Candidate
- class_or_shrink_5000
- Joint Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Market Is Model Input
- Cross Player P10 Draw Alignment
- prohibited
Nate Boerkircher + Trevor Lawrence · Supported Empirical Dependence
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 4
- Game Id
- 10569
- Player A Id
- 1280
- Player B Id
- 1298
- Event A Kind
- scorer_td
- Event B Kind
- passing_td
- Relationship Class
- qb_pass_receiver
- Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Support State
- supported_empirical_dependence
- Projection State
- fallback
- Player A Probability
- 0.1096500000
- Player B Probability
- 0.8572500000
- Both Probability
- 0.1071465118
- Either Probability
- 0.8597534882
- Exactly One Probability
- 0.7526069763
- Neither Probability
- 0.1402465118
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.1249886402
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.9771683706
- Naive Probability
- 0.0939974625
- Absolute Difference
- 0.0131490493
- Relative Difference
- 0.1398872798
- Dependence Direction
- positive
- Probability Json
- {"p_a": 0.10965, "p_b": 0.85725, "both": 0.1071465118395179, "a_only": 0.002503488160482098, "b_only": 0.750103488160482, "either": 0.859753488160482, "neither": 0.14024651183951808, "simulation": {"seed": 1068953004, "draw_count": 20000, "simulated_both": 0.1065, "absolute_error_from_analytic": 0.000646511839517902}, "exactly_one": 0.7526069763209641, "naive_independence": 0.0939974625, "absolute_difference": 0.01314904933951791, "relative_difference": 0.13988727982436666, "dependence_direction": "positive", "conditional_a_given_b": 0.1249886402327418, "conditional_b_given_a": 0.9771683706294382}
- Explanation Json
- {"short": "A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.", "football_structure": "A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.", "dependence_direction": "positive"}
- Lineage Json
- {"p10_a": {"content_hash": "2a65a455451c29745c49185272e9eb9e7280a6bb5dfa5b47fc59f37d51dcc77b", "model_version": "nfl_p10c_wrte_empirical_v1"}, "p10_b": {"content_hash": "7036a930b26484f40bfec58ca11749f7073e9d12af73e112fa8b8a0f5412c3db", "model_version": "nfl_p10a_qb_signals_v1"}, "odds_ratio": 8.002089024495183, "pair_order": "ascending canonical player_id", "p5_week_hash": "1e1a796fa385d30ee1f36d9bc7665facb5bef87ad0d2aa89059ef4f6d2896ad6", "evidence_version": "nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1", "selection_version": "nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1", "selected_candidate": "class_or_shrink_5000", "joint_model_version": "nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1", "market_is_model_input": false, "cross_player_p10_draw_alignment": "prohibited"}
- Content Hash
- 80e4ffe8f5d3352453862592acffe2771aa382277b416a07e54805309fcb397e
- Observed At
- 2026-09-30 23:46:03
- Generated At
- 2026-10-01 23:08:11
- Published At
- 2026-10-01 23:08:11
- Player A Name
- Nate Boerkircher
- Player B Name
- Trevor Lawrence
- Probability
- P A
- 0.10965
- P B
- 0.85725
- Both
- 0.10714651183952
- A Only
- 0.0025034881604821
- B Only
- 0.75010348816048
- Either
- 0.85975348816048
- Neither
- 0.14024651183952
- Simulation
- Seed
- 1068953004
- Draw Count
- 20000
- Simulated Both
- 0.1065
- Absolute Error From Analytic
- 0.0006465118395179
- Exactly One
- 0.75260697632096
- Naive Independence
- 0.0939974625
- Absolute Difference
- 0.013149049339518
- Relative Difference
- 0.13988727982437
- Dependence Direction
- positive
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.12498864023274
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.97716837062944
- Explanation
- Short
- A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.
- Football Structure
- A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.
- Dependence Direction
- positive
- Lineage
- P10 A
- Content Hash
- 2a65a455451c29745c49185272e9eb9e7280a6bb5dfa5b47fc59f37d51dcc77b
- Model Version
- nfl_p10c_wrte_empirical_v1
- P10 B
- Content Hash
- 7036a930b26484f40bfec58ca11749f7073e9d12af73e112fa8b8a0f5412c3db
- Model Version
- nfl_p10a_qb_signals_v1
- Odds Ratio
- 8.0020890244952
- Pair Order
- ascending canonical player_id
- P5 Week Hash
- 1e1a796fa385d30ee1f36d9bc7665facb5bef87ad0d2aa89059ef4f6d2896ad6
- Evidence Version
- nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1
- Selection Version
- nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1
- Selected Candidate
- class_or_shrink_5000
- Joint Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Market Is Model Input
- Cross Player P10 Draw Alignment
- prohibited
Nate Boerkircher + Chris Rodriguez Jr. · Supported Empirical Dependence
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 1
- Game Id
- 10525
- Player A Id
- 1280
- Player B Id
- 1312
- Event A Kind
- scorer_td
- Event B Kind
- scorer_td
- Relationship Class
- same_team_rb_te
- Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Support State
- supported_empirical_dependence
- Projection State
- fallback
- Player A Probability
- 0.1675000000
- Player B Probability
- 0.3374000000
- Both Probability
- 0.0524105689
- Either Probability
- 0.4524894311
- Exactly One Probability
- 0.4000788622
- Neither Probability
- 0.5475105689
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.1553366002
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.3128989189
- Naive Probability
- 0.0565145000
- Absolute Difference
- -0.0041039311
- Relative Difference
- -0.0726173122
- Dependence Direction
- approximately_neutral
- Probability Json
- {"p_a": 0.1675, "p_b": 0.3374, "both": 0.052410568908759995, "a_only": 0.11508943109124, "b_only": 0.28498943109124, "either": 0.45248943109124, "neither": 0.54751056890876, "simulation": {"seed": 1064553018, "draw_count": 20000, "simulated_both": 0.05355, "absolute_error_from_analytic": 0.001139431091240005}, "exactly_one": 0.40007886218248, "naive_independence": 0.0565145, "absolute_difference": -0.004103931091240007, "relative_difference": -0.07261731221615703, "dependence_direction": "approximately_neutral", "conditional_a_given_b": 0.15533660020379372, "conditional_b_given_a": 0.3128989188582686}
- Explanation Json
- {"short": "The back and tight end share team scoring states while competing for a finite touchdown allocation.", "football_structure": "The back and tight end share team scoring states while competing for a finite touchdown allocation.", "dependence_direction": "approximately_neutral"}
- Lineage Json
- {"p10_a": {"content_hash": "a5f9ed095d2dc8a7d240fb0989e516df94fdf6da425e1d03207b09238aeb519e", "model_version": "nfl_p10c_wrte_empirical_v1"}, "p10_b": {"content_hash": "801a11734ce486799ee8d9f0599624fe866128daf276df5386ec9c90cb190b58", "model_version": "nfl_p10b_rb_empirical_v3"}, "odds_ratio": 0.874877370604777, "pair_order": "ascending canonical player_id", "p5_week_hash": "a2254ba8c0a3d262499ea5e2bb07d419b91aa632dd74faa1ca8d39f91285e627", "evidence_version": "nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1", "selection_version": "nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1", "selected_candidate": "class_or_shrink_0", "joint_model_version": "nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1", "market_is_model_input": false, "cross_player_p10_draw_alignment": "prohibited"}
- Content Hash
- 770c28b6466f9b183cc866df60b7104c92c31ce2cb04e7e85f71e2996f73f926
- Observed At
- 2026-09-01 23:59:00
- Generated At
- 2026-09-10 11:37:58
- Published At
- 2026-09-10 11:37:58
- Player A Name
- Nate Boerkircher
- Player B Name
- Chris Rodriguez Jr.
- Probability
- P A
- 0.1675
- P B
- 0.3374
- Both
- 0.05241056890876
- A Only
- 0.11508943109124
- B Only
- 0.28498943109124
- Either
- 0.45248943109124
- Neither
- 0.54751056890876
- Simulation
- Seed
- 1064553018
- Draw Count
- 20000
- Simulated Both
- 0.05355
- Absolute Error From Analytic
- 0.00113943109124
- Exactly One
- 0.40007886218248
- Naive Independence
- 0.0565145
- Absolute Difference
- -0.00410393109124
- Relative Difference
- -0.072617312216157
- Dependence Direction
- approximately_neutral
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.15533660020379
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.31289891885827
- Explanation
- Short
- The back and tight end share team scoring states while competing for a finite touchdown allocation.
- Football Structure
- The back and tight end share team scoring states while competing for a finite touchdown allocation.
- Dependence Direction
- approximately_neutral
- Lineage
- P10 A
- Content Hash
- a5f9ed095d2dc8a7d240fb0989e516df94fdf6da425e1d03207b09238aeb519e
- Model Version
- nfl_p10c_wrte_empirical_v1
- P10 B
- Content Hash
- 801a11734ce486799ee8d9f0599624fe866128daf276df5386ec9c90cb190b58
- Model Version
- nfl_p10b_rb_empirical_v3
- Odds Ratio
- 0.87487737060478
- Pair Order
- ascending canonical player_id
- P5 Week Hash
- a2254ba8c0a3d262499ea5e2bb07d419b91aa632dd74faa1ca8d39f91285e627
- Evidence Version
- nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1
- Selection Version
- nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1
- Selected Candidate
- class_or_shrink_0
- Joint Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Market Is Model Input
- Cross Player P10 Draw Alignment
- prohibited
Season
Regular season and postseason stay separate; only supported values are shown.
Season production unavailable.
Games
Official game evidence
Published provider box-score evidence by category; it does not imply a start or snap share.
2026 regular · Week 9 · receiving · provider espn
JAX vs BAL · REC 2 · YDS 61 · AVG 30.5 · TD 0 · LONG 52 · TGTS 3
- Labels
- 0
- REC
- 1
- YDS
- 2
- AVG
- 3
- TD
- 4
- LONG
- 5
- TGTS
- Values
- 0
- 2
- 1
- 61
- 2
- 30.5
- 3
- 0
- 4
- 52
- 5
- 3
2026 regular · Week 8 · receiving · provider espn
JAX vs IND · REC 1 · YDS 31 · AVG 31.0 · TD 1 · LONG 31 · TGTS 1
- Labels
- 0
- REC
- 1
- YDS
- 2
- AVG
- 3
- TD
- 4
- LONG
- 5
- TGTS
- Values
- 0
- 1
- 1
- 31
- 2
- 31.0
- 3
- 1
- 4
- 31
- 5
- 1
2026 regular · Week 6 · receiving · provider espn
JAX vs HOU · REC 2 · YDS 8 · AVG 4.0 · TD 1 · LONG 7 · TGTS 2
- Labels
- 0
- REC
- 1
- YDS
- 2
- AVG
- 3
- TD
- 4
- LONG
- 5
- TGTS
- Values
- 0
- 2
- 1
- 8
- 2
- 4.0
- 3
- 1
- 4
- 7
- 5
- 2
2026 regular · Week 5 · receiving · provider espn
JAX vs PHI · REC 2 · YDS 20 · AVG 10.0 · TD 0 · LONG 12 · TGTS 2
- Labels
- 0
- REC
- 1
- YDS
- 2
- AVG
- 3
- TD
- 4
- LONG
- 5
- TGTS
- Values
- 0
- 2
- 1
- 20
- 2
- 10.0
- 3
- 0
- 4
- 12
- 5
- 2
2026 regular · Week 4 · receiving · provider espn
JAX vs CIN · REC 1 · YDS 15 · AVG 15.0 · TD 0 · LONG 15 · TGTS 2
- Labels
- 0
- REC
- 1
- YDS
- 2
- AVG
- 3
- TD
- 4
- LONG
- 5
- TGTS
- Values
- 0
- 1
- 1
- 15
- 2
- 15.0
- 3
- 0
- 4
- 15
- 5
- 2
2026 regular · Week 3 · receiving · provider espn
JAX vs NE · REC 0 · YDS 0 · AVG 0.0 · TD 0 · LONG 0 · TGTS 1
- Labels
- 0
- REC
- 1
- YDS
- 2
- AVG
- 3
- TD
- 4
- LONG
- 5
- TGTS
- Values
- 0
- 0
- 1
- 0
- 2
- 0.0
- 3
- 0
- 4
- 0
- 5
- 1
2026 regular · Week 1 · receiving · provider espn
JAX vs CLE · REC 1 · YDS 9 · AVG 9.0 · TD 0 · LONG 9 · TGTS 1
- Labels
- 0
- REC
- 1
- YDS
- 2
- AVG
- 3
- TD
- 4
- LONG
- 5
- TGTS
- Values
- 0
- 1
- 1
- 9
- 2
- 9.0
- 3
- 0
- 4
- 9
- 5
- 1
Weekly history
2026 REG · Week 9 · JAX vs BAL
Targets: 3 · Receptions: 2
- Carries
- 0
- Game Id
- 10638
- Targets
- 3
- Attempts
- 0
- Receptions
- 2
- Completions
- 0
- Passing Tds
- 0
- Rushing Tds
- 0
- Fumbles Lost
- 0
- Interceptions
- 0
- Passing Yards
- 0
- Receiving Tds
- 0
- Rushing Yards
- 0
- Receiving Yards
- 61
2026 REG · Week 8 · JAX vs IND
Targets: 1 · Receptions: 1
- Carries
- 0
- Game Id
- 10632
- Targets
- 1
- Attempts
- 0
- Receptions
- 1
- Completions
- 0
- Passing Tds
- 0
- Rushing Tds
- 0
- Fumbles Lost
- 0
- Interceptions
- 0
- Passing Yards
- 0
- Receiving Tds
- 1
- Rushing Yards
- 0
- Receiving Yards
- 31
2026 REG · Week 6 · JAX vs HOU
Targets: 2 · Receptions: 2
- Carries
- 0
- Game Id
- 10597
- Targets
- 2
- Attempts
- 0
- Receptions
- 2
- Completions
- 0
- Passing Tds
- 0
- Rushing Tds
- 0
- Fumbles Lost
- 0
- Interceptions
- 0
- Passing Yards
- 0
- Receiving Tds
- 1
- Rushing Yards
- 0
- Receiving Yards
- 8
2026 REG · Week 5 · JAX vs PHI
Targets: 2 · Receptions: 2
- Carries
- 0
- Game Id
- 10582
- Targets
- 2
- Attempts
- 0
- Receptions
- 2
- Completions
- 0
- Passing Tds
- 0
- Rushing Tds
- 0
- Fumbles Lost
- 0
- Interceptions
- 0
- Passing Yards
- 0
- Receiving Tds
- 0
- Rushing Yards
- 0
- Receiving Yards
- 20
2026 REG · Week 4 · JAX vs CIN
Targets: 2 · Receptions: 1
- Carries
- 0
- Game Id
- 10569
- Targets
- 2
- Attempts
- 0
- Receptions
- 1
- Completions
- 0
- Passing Tds
- 0
- Rushing Tds
- 0
- Fumbles Lost
- 0
- Interceptions
- 0
- Passing Yards
- 0
- Receiving Tds
- 0
- Rushing Yards
- 0
- Receiving Yards
- 15
2026 REG · Week 3 · JAX vs NE
Targets: 1 · Receptions: 0
- Carries
- 0
- Game Id
- 10558
- Targets
- 1
- Attempts
- 0
- Receptions
- 0
- Completions
- 0
- Passing Tds
- 0
- Rushing Tds
- 0
- Fumbles Lost
- 0
- Interceptions
- 0
- Passing Yards
- 0
- Receiving Tds
- 0
- Rushing Yards
- 0
- Receiving Yards
- 0
2026 REG · Week 1 · JAX vs CLE
Targets: 1 · Receptions: 1
- Carries
- 0
- Game Id
- 10525
- Targets
- 1
- Attempts
- 0
- Receptions
- 1
- Completions
- 0
- Passing Tds
- 0
- Rushing Tds
- 0
- Fumbles Lost
- 0
- Interceptions
- 0
- Passing Yards
- 0
- Receiving Tds
- 0
- Rushing Yards
- 0
- Receiving Yards
- 9
Fantasy outlook
Forward systems
Floor and ceiling are projected distribution percentiles; fumbles lost and two-point conversions remain unsupported.
Standard · 2.7 points · 0.0 floor · 1.3 median · 7.3 ceiling
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 10
- Game Id
- 10658
- Player Id
- 1280
- Team Id
- 47
- Opponent Team Id
- 63
- Position Code
- TE
- Scoring System Code
- standard
- Model Version
- nfl_p11a_forward_fantasy_v1
- Scoring Version
- pardonme_fantasy_v1
- Projection State
- individualized
- Position Rank
- 37
- Position Population
- 43
- Projected Points
- 2.7267
- Median Points
- 1.3000
- Floor Points
- 0.0000
- Ceiling Points
- 7.3000
- Projection Json
- {"state": "individualized", "summary": {"mean": 2.726715, "floor": 0.0, "median": 1.3, "ceiling": 7.3, "draw_count": 20000, "interval_80": {"lower": 0.0, "upper": 7.3}, "floor_definition": "10th percentile", "ceiling_definition": "90th percentile", "threshold_probabilities": {"6": 0.1399, "10": 0.02855, "15": 0.011}}, "completeness": "modeled_components_only", "position_comparison": {"rank": 37, "percentile": 15.116279069767442, "population": 43, "gap_to_position_median": -1.3203850000000004}, "unsupported_components": ["two_point_conversions", "fumbles_lost"]}
- Explanation Json
- {"short": "2.1 targets and 1.5 receptions; 12% chance of 1+ relevant TD; availability unknown.", "drivers": ["2.1 targets and 1.5 receptions", "12% chance of 1+ relevant TD", "availability unknown"], "causal_boundary": "P10 football draws include only versioned, holdout-validated signal effects. Madden/PCA remains context only.", "historical_2025": null}
- Lineage Json
- {"model_version": "nfl_p11a_forward_fantasy_v1", "scoring_version": "pardonme_fantasy_v1", "p10_content_hash": "d50cfa5650090706b0af6245ec6efb585ac7e6f78f3ea17a8891325c2ce4cc68", "p10_model_version": "nfl_p10c_wrte_signals_v1", "draw_transformation": "exact deterministic P10 draws scored component-wise", "p10_reproducibility": {"seed": 106580130, "method": "empirical targets centered on read-only P5; conditional beta-binomial receptions and TD; nonnegative blended posterior/empirical yards per reception", "source_hash": "84c1fa7ccc1acb66b3d2037c11dd8cee83814a9cc0529d4066a90f7fb9553e4e", "interval_level": 0.8, "football_signals": {"changes": {"targets": -0.06071289073916591, "receptions": -0.008039453214281332, "receiving_yards": -0.4114151856529159}, "version": "nfl_p10_football_signals_v1", "features": {"wopr3": 0.19971334717686567, "targets3": 2.0, "snap_last": 0.55, "air_share3": 0.12602718696605217, "snap_mean3": 0.5266666666666667, "carry_share3": 0.0, "own_carries8": 28.75, "own_rush_ypc8": 4.073913043478261, "target_share3": 0.07432954420041926, "own_sack_rate8": 0.05416666666666667, "air_per_target3": 14.055555555555555, "role_continuity": 0.6666666666666666, "opponent_carries8": 29.875, "opponent_rush_ypc8": 4.154811715481172, "opportunity_share3": 0.09623015873015872, "opponent_sack_rate8": 0.0684931506849315}, "model_keys": ["receiving_TE_receiving_yards", "receiving_TE_receptions", "role_TE_targets"], "target_week": 10, "feature_hash": "b17c56063d8db7cff32274b31a2509f573a9d0d989f0afbdbe2876fb78b6574f", "artifact_hash": "abe5a601293374a3b9ce2e82747d93685f38da588d2c76877a5ff3e28360ee8b", "target_season": 2026, "missing_policy": "retain baseline for unsupported signal", "baseline_version": "nfl_p10c_wrte_empirical_v1", "strict_prior_week": true, "historical_validation": "2013-2022 fit; 2023 tuning; 2024-2025 final proxy-centered draw holdout"}, "simulation_draws": 20000, "frozen_parameters": {"era_seasons": 5, "td_prior_targets": 250, "catch_prior_targets": 10, "target_mixture_games": 2, "efficiency_empirical_blend": 0.0, "efficiency_prior_receptions": 10}, "parameter_version": "nfl_p10c_wrte_params_v1", "parameter_selection_season": 2023}, "source_manifest_hash": "1b749d7c302c6ccee3201f67e571aadf9114e87bd8943be5efc5e32328e04f7a", "unsupported_components": ["two_point_conversions", "fumbles_lost"]}
- Content Hash
- 899f18c83845456b24239213cef5c82cc496b609f8095cd5efce4a0ad3b5e897
- Observed At
- 2026-11-10 11:36:37
- Generated At
- 2026-11-14 11:40:31
- Published At
- 2026-11-14 11:40:31
- Projection
- State
- individualized
- Summary
- Mean
- 2.726715
- Floor
- 0
- Median
- 1.3
- Ceiling
- 7.3
- Draw Count
- 20000
- Interval 80
- Lower
- 0
- Upper
- 7.3
- Floor Definition
- 10th percentile
- Ceiling Definition
- 90th percentile
- Threshold Probabilities
- 6
- 0.1399
- 10
- 0.02855
- 15
- 0.011
- Completeness
- modeled_components_only
- Position Comparison
- Rank
- 37
- Percentile
- 15.116279069767
- Population
- 43
- Gap To Position Median
- -1.320385
- Unsupported Components
- 0
- two_point_conversions
- 1
- fumbles_lost
- Explanation
- Short
- 2.1 targets and 1.5 receptions; 12% chance of 1+ relevant TD; availability unknown.
- Drivers
- 0
- 2.1 targets and 1.5 receptions
- 1
- 12% chance of 1+ relevant TD
- 2
- availability unknown
- Causal Boundary
- P10 football draws include only versioned, holdout-validated signal effects. Madden/PCA remains context only.
- Historical 2025
- —
- Lineage
- Model Version
- nfl_p11a_forward_fantasy_v1
- Scoring Version
- pardonme_fantasy_v1
- P10 Content Hash
- d50cfa5650090706b0af6245ec6efb585ac7e6f78f3ea17a8891325c2ce4cc68
- P10 Model Version
- nfl_p10c_wrte_signals_v1
- Draw Transformation
- exact deterministic P10 draws scored component-wise
- P10 Reproducibility
- Seed
- 106580130
- Method
- empirical targets centered on read-only P5; conditional beta-binomial receptions and TD; nonnegative blended posterior/empirical yards per reception
- Source Hash
- 84c1fa7ccc1acb66b3d2037c11dd8cee83814a9cc0529d4066a90f7fb9553e4e
- Interval Level
- 0.8
- Football Signals
- Changes
- Targets
- -0.060712890739166
- Receptions
- -0.0080394532142813
- Receiving Yards
- -0.41141518565292
- Version
- nfl_p10_football_signals_v1
- Features
- Wopr3
- 0.19971334717687
- Targets3
- 2
- Snap Last
- 0.55
- Air Share3
- 0.12602718696605
- Snap Mean3
- 0.52666666666667
- Carry Share3
- 0
- Own Carries8
- 28.75
- Own Rush Ypc8
- 4.0739130434783
- Target Share3
- 0.074329544200419
- Own Sack Rate8
- 0.054166666666667
- Air Per Target3
- 14.055555555556
- Role Continuity
- 0.66666666666667
- Opponent Carries8
- 29.875
- Opponent Rush Ypc8
- 4.1548117154812
- Opportunity Share3
- 0.096230158730159
- Opponent Sack Rate8
- 0.068493150684932
- Model Keys
- 0
- receiving_TE_receiving_yards
- 1
- receiving_TE_receptions
- 2
- role_TE_targets
- Target Week
- 10
- Feature Hash
- b17c56063d8db7cff32274b31a2509f573a9d0d989f0afbdbe2876fb78b6574f
- Artifact Hash
- abe5a601293374a3b9ce2e82747d93685f38da588d2c76877a5ff3e28360ee8b
- Target Season
- 2026
- Missing Policy
- retain baseline for unsupported signal
- Baseline Version
- nfl_p10c_wrte_empirical_v1
- Strict Prior Week
- 1
- Historical Validation
- 2013-2022 fit; 2023 tuning; 2024-2025 final proxy-centered draw holdout
- Simulation Draws
- 20000
- Frozen Parameters
- Era Seasons
- 5
- Td Prior Targets
- 250
- Catch Prior Targets
- 10
- Target Mixture Games
- 2
- Efficiency Empirical Blend
- 0
- Efficiency Prior Receptions
- 10
- Parameter Version
- nfl_p10c_wrte_params_v1
- Parameter Selection Season
- 2023
- Source Manifest Hash
- 1b749d7c302c6ccee3201f67e571aadf9114e87bd8943be5efc5e32328e04f7a
- Unsupported Components
- 0
- two_point_conversions
- 1
- fumbles_lost
Half-PPR · 3.5 points · 0.0 floor · 1.8 median · 7.8 ceiling
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 10
- Game Id
- 10658
- Player Id
- 1280
- Team Id
- 47
- Opponent Team Id
- 63
- Position Code
- TE
- Scoring System Code
- half_ppr
- Model Version
- nfl_p11a_forward_fantasy_v1
- Scoring Version
- pardonme_fantasy_v1
- Projection State
- individualized
- Position Rank
- 38
- Position Population
- 43
- Projected Points
- 3.4903
- Median Points
- 1.8000
- Floor Points
- 0.0000
- Ceiling Points
- 7.8000
- Projection Json
- {"state": "individualized", "summary": {"mean": 3.49034, "floor": 0.0, "median": 1.8, "ceiling": 7.8, "draw_count": 20000, "interval_80": {"lower": 0.0, "upper": 7.8}, "floor_definition": "10th percentile", "ceiling_definition": "90th percentile", "threshold_probabilities": {"6": 0.15705, "10": 0.05285, "15": 0.02045}}, "completeness": "modeled_components_only", "position_comparison": {"rank": 38, "percentile": 12.790697674418604, "population": 43, "gap_to_position_median": -2.05189}, "unsupported_components": ["two_point_conversions", "fumbles_lost"]}
- Explanation Json
- {"short": "2.1 targets and 1.5 receptions; 12% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown.", "drivers": ["2.1 targets and 1.5 receptions", "12% chance of 1+ relevant TD", "receptions add 0.5 points each", "availability unknown"], "causal_boundary": "P10 football draws include only versioned, holdout-validated signal effects. Madden/PCA remains context only.", "historical_2025": null}
- Lineage Json
- {"model_version": "nfl_p11a_forward_fantasy_v1", "scoring_version": "pardonme_fantasy_v1", "p10_content_hash": "d50cfa5650090706b0af6245ec6efb585ac7e6f78f3ea17a8891325c2ce4cc68", "p10_model_version": "nfl_p10c_wrte_signals_v1", "draw_transformation": "exact deterministic P10 draws scored component-wise", "p10_reproducibility": {"seed": 106580130, "method": "empirical targets centered on read-only P5; conditional beta-binomial receptions and TD; nonnegative blended posterior/empirical yards per reception", "source_hash": "84c1fa7ccc1acb66b3d2037c11dd8cee83814a9cc0529d4066a90f7fb9553e4e", "interval_level": 0.8, "football_signals": {"changes": {"targets": -0.06071289073916591, "receptions": -0.008039453214281332, "receiving_yards": -0.4114151856529159}, "version": "nfl_p10_football_signals_v1", "features": {"wopr3": 0.19971334717686567, "targets3": 2.0, "snap_last": 0.55, "air_share3": 0.12602718696605217, "snap_mean3": 0.5266666666666667, "carry_share3": 0.0, "own_carries8": 28.75, "own_rush_ypc8": 4.073913043478261, "target_share3": 0.07432954420041926, "own_sack_rate8": 0.05416666666666667, "air_per_target3": 14.055555555555555, "role_continuity": 0.6666666666666666, "opponent_carries8": 29.875, "opponent_rush_ypc8": 4.154811715481172, "opportunity_share3": 0.09623015873015872, "opponent_sack_rate8": 0.0684931506849315}, "model_keys": ["receiving_TE_receiving_yards", "receiving_TE_receptions", "role_TE_targets"], "target_week": 10, "feature_hash": "b17c56063d8db7cff32274b31a2509f573a9d0d989f0afbdbe2876fb78b6574f", "artifact_hash": "abe5a601293374a3b9ce2e82747d93685f38da588d2c76877a5ff3e28360ee8b", "target_season": 2026, "missing_policy": "retain baseline for unsupported signal", "baseline_version": "nfl_p10c_wrte_empirical_v1", "strict_prior_week": true, "historical_validation": "2013-2022 fit; 2023 tuning; 2024-2025 final proxy-centered draw holdout"}, "simulation_draws": 20000, "frozen_parameters": {"era_seasons": 5, "td_prior_targets": 250, "catch_prior_targets": 10, "target_mixture_games": 2, "efficiency_empirical_blend": 0.0, "efficiency_prior_receptions": 10}, "parameter_version": "nfl_p10c_wrte_params_v1", "parameter_selection_season": 2023}, "source_manifest_hash": "16bdf9aeb3014e1f726a6adce09313f05ee78e22700d4b46a69adb985f2417a7", "unsupported_components": ["two_point_conversions", "fumbles_lost"]}
- Content Hash
- fce1b0ab093a56c61533058d20c441066f2cd8ec8d1402ed797a7e2e12f1a06c
- Observed At
- 2026-11-10 11:36:37
- Generated At
- 2026-11-14 11:40:31
- Published At
- 2026-11-14 11:40:31
- Projection
- State
- individualized
- Summary
- Mean
- 3.49034
- Floor
- 0
- Median
- 1.8
- Ceiling
- 7.8
- Draw Count
- 20000
- Interval 80
- Lower
- 0
- Upper
- 7.8
- Floor Definition
- 10th percentile
- Ceiling Definition
- 90th percentile
- Threshold Probabilities
- 6
- 0.15705
- 10
- 0.05285
- 15
- 0.02045
- Completeness
- modeled_components_only
- Position Comparison
- Rank
- 38
- Percentile
- 12.790697674419
- Population
- 43
- Gap To Position Median
- -2.05189
- Unsupported Components
- 0
- two_point_conversions
- 1
- fumbles_lost
- Explanation
- Short
- 2.1 targets and 1.5 receptions; 12% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown.
- Drivers
- 0
- 2.1 targets and 1.5 receptions
- 1
- 12% chance of 1+ relevant TD
- 2
- receptions add 0.5 points each
- 3
- availability unknown
- Causal Boundary
- P10 football draws include only versioned, holdout-validated signal effects. Madden/PCA remains context only.
- Historical 2025
- —
- Lineage
- Model Version
- nfl_p11a_forward_fantasy_v1
- Scoring Version
- pardonme_fantasy_v1
- P10 Content Hash
- d50cfa5650090706b0af6245ec6efb585ac7e6f78f3ea17a8891325c2ce4cc68
- P10 Model Version
- nfl_p10c_wrte_signals_v1
- Draw Transformation
- exact deterministic P10 draws scored component-wise
- P10 Reproducibility
- Seed
- 106580130
- Method
- empirical targets centered on read-only P5; conditional beta-binomial receptions and TD; nonnegative blended posterior/empirical yards per reception
- Source Hash
- 84c1fa7ccc1acb66b3d2037c11dd8cee83814a9cc0529d4066a90f7fb9553e4e
- Interval Level
- 0.8
- Football Signals
- Changes
- Targets
- -0.060712890739166
- Receptions
- -0.0080394532142813
- Receiving Yards
- -0.41141518565292
- Version
- nfl_p10_football_signals_v1
- Features
- Wopr3
- 0.19971334717687
- Targets3
- 2
- Snap Last
- 0.55
- Air Share3
- 0.12602718696605
- Snap Mean3
- 0.52666666666667
- Carry Share3
- 0
- Own Carries8
- 28.75
- Own Rush Ypc8
- 4.0739130434783
- Target Share3
- 0.074329544200419
- Own Sack Rate8
- 0.054166666666667
- Air Per Target3
- 14.055555555556
- Role Continuity
- 0.66666666666667
- Opponent Carries8
- 29.875
- Opponent Rush Ypc8
- 4.1548117154812
- Opportunity Share3
- 0.096230158730159
- Opponent Sack Rate8
- 0.068493150684932
- Model Keys
- 0
- receiving_TE_receiving_yards
- 1
- receiving_TE_receptions
- 2
- role_TE_targets
- Target Week
- 10
- Feature Hash
- b17c56063d8db7cff32274b31a2509f573a9d0d989f0afbdbe2876fb78b6574f
- Artifact Hash
- abe5a601293374a3b9ce2e82747d93685f38da588d2c76877a5ff3e28360ee8b
- Target Season
- 2026
- Missing Policy
- retain baseline for unsupported signal
- Baseline Version
- nfl_p10c_wrte_empirical_v1
- Strict Prior Week
- 1
- Historical Validation
- 2013-2022 fit; 2023 tuning; 2024-2025 final proxy-centered draw holdout
- Simulation Draws
- 20000
- Frozen Parameters
- Era Seasons
- 5
- Td Prior Targets
- 250
- Catch Prior Targets
- 10
- Target Mixture Games
- 2
- Efficiency Empirical Blend
- 0
- Efficiency Prior Receptions
- 10
- Parameter Version
- nfl_p10c_wrte_params_v1
- Parameter Selection Season
- 2023
- Source Manifest Hash
- 16bdf9aeb3014e1f726a6adce09313f05ee78e22700d4b46a69adb985f2417a7
- Unsupported Components
- 0
- two_point_conversions
- 1
- fumbles_lost
Full-PPR · 4.3 points · 0.0 floor · 2.3 median · 9.2 ceiling
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 10
- Game Id
- 10658
- Player Id
- 1280
- Team Id
- 47
- Opponent Team Id
- 63
- Position Code
- TE
- Scoring System Code
- full_ppr
- Model Version
- nfl_p11a_forward_fantasy_v1
- Scoring Version
- pardonme_fantasy_v1
- Projection State
- individualized
- Position Rank
- 39
- Position Population
- 43
- Projected Points
- 4.2540
- Median Points
- 2.3000
- Floor Points
- 0.0000
- Ceiling Points
- 9.2000
- Projection Json
- {"state": "individualized", "summary": {"mean": 4.253965, "floor": 0.0, "median": 2.3, "ceiling": 9.2, "draw_count": 20000, "interval_80": {"lower": 0.0, "upper": 9.2}, "floor_definition": "10th percentile", "ceiling_definition": "90th percentile", "threshold_probabilities": {"6": 0.2155, "10": 0.09285, "15": 0.0319}}, "completeness": "modeled_components_only", "position_comparison": {"rank": 39, "percentile": 10.465116279069768, "population": 43, "gap_to_position_median": -2.89759}, "unsupported_components": ["two_point_conversions", "fumbles_lost"]}
- Explanation Json
- {"short": "2.1 targets and 1.5 receptions; 12% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 1.0 points each; availability unknown.", "drivers": ["2.1 targets and 1.5 receptions", "12% chance of 1+ relevant TD", "receptions add 1.0 points each", "availability unknown"], "causal_boundary": "P10 football draws include only versioned, holdout-validated signal effects. Madden/PCA remains context only.", "historical_2025": null}
- Lineage Json
- {"model_version": "nfl_p11a_forward_fantasy_v1", "scoring_version": "pardonme_fantasy_v1", "p10_content_hash": "d50cfa5650090706b0af6245ec6efb585ac7e6f78f3ea17a8891325c2ce4cc68", "p10_model_version": "nfl_p10c_wrte_signals_v1", "draw_transformation": "exact deterministic P10 draws scored component-wise", "p10_reproducibility": {"seed": 106580130, "method": "empirical targets centered on read-only P5; conditional beta-binomial receptions and TD; nonnegative blended posterior/empirical yards per reception", "source_hash": "84c1fa7ccc1acb66b3d2037c11dd8cee83814a9cc0529d4066a90f7fb9553e4e", "interval_level": 0.8, "football_signals": {"changes": {"targets": -0.06071289073916591, "receptions": -0.008039453214281332, "receiving_yards": -0.4114151856529159}, "version": "nfl_p10_football_signals_v1", "features": {"wopr3": 0.19971334717686567, "targets3": 2.0, "snap_last": 0.55, "air_share3": 0.12602718696605217, "snap_mean3": 0.5266666666666667, "carry_share3": 0.0, "own_carries8": 28.75, "own_rush_ypc8": 4.073913043478261, "target_share3": 0.07432954420041926, "own_sack_rate8": 0.05416666666666667, "air_per_target3": 14.055555555555555, "role_continuity": 0.6666666666666666, "opponent_carries8": 29.875, "opponent_rush_ypc8": 4.154811715481172, "opportunity_share3": 0.09623015873015872, "opponent_sack_rate8": 0.0684931506849315}, "model_keys": ["receiving_TE_receiving_yards", "receiving_TE_receptions", "role_TE_targets"], "target_week": 10, "feature_hash": "b17c56063d8db7cff32274b31a2509f573a9d0d989f0afbdbe2876fb78b6574f", "artifact_hash": "abe5a601293374a3b9ce2e82747d93685f38da588d2c76877a5ff3e28360ee8b", "target_season": 2026, "missing_policy": "retain baseline for unsupported signal", "baseline_version": "nfl_p10c_wrte_empirical_v1", "strict_prior_week": true, "historical_validation": "2013-2022 fit; 2023 tuning; 2024-2025 final proxy-centered draw holdout"}, "simulation_draws": 20000, "frozen_parameters": {"era_seasons": 5, "td_prior_targets": 250, "catch_prior_targets": 10, "target_mixture_games": 2, "efficiency_empirical_blend": 0.0, "efficiency_prior_receptions": 10}, "parameter_version": "nfl_p10c_wrte_params_v1", "parameter_selection_season": 2023}, "source_manifest_hash": "e114b783ba771db50fe78e74f173830dc68d7931338cfde7496dd48263fd2ce3", "unsupported_components": ["two_point_conversions", "fumbles_lost"]}
- Content Hash
- e69ad3a6b80a1f8f2915e3cb22cbb02aac5a0d9075371b11480a8fa24d705151
- Observed At
- 2026-11-10 11:36:37
- Generated At
- 2026-11-14 11:40:31
- Published At
- 2026-11-14 11:40:31
- Projection
- State
- individualized
- Summary
- Mean
- 4.253965
- Floor
- 0
- Median
- 2.3
- Ceiling
- 9.2
- Draw Count
- 20000
- Interval 80
- Lower
- 0
- Upper
- 9.2
- Floor Definition
- 10th percentile
- Ceiling Definition
- 90th percentile
- Threshold Probabilities
- 6
- 0.2155
- 10
- 0.09285
- 15
- 0.0319
- Completeness
- modeled_components_only
- Position Comparison
- Rank
- 39
- Percentile
- 10.46511627907
- Population
- 43
- Gap To Position Median
- -2.89759
- Unsupported Components
- 0
- two_point_conversions
- 1
- fumbles_lost
- Explanation
- Short
- 2.1 targets and 1.5 receptions; 12% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 1.0 points each; availability unknown.
- Drivers
- 0
- 2.1 targets and 1.5 receptions
- 1
- 12% chance of 1+ relevant TD
- 2
- receptions add 1.0 points each
- 3
- availability unknown
- Causal Boundary
- P10 football draws include only versioned, holdout-validated signal effects. Madden/PCA remains context only.
- Historical 2025
- —
- Lineage
- Model Version
- nfl_p11a_forward_fantasy_v1
- Scoring Version
- pardonme_fantasy_v1
- P10 Content Hash
- d50cfa5650090706b0af6245ec6efb585ac7e6f78f3ea17a8891325c2ce4cc68
- P10 Model Version
- nfl_p10c_wrte_signals_v1
- Draw Transformation
- exact deterministic P10 draws scored component-wise
- P10 Reproducibility
- Seed
- 106580130
- Method
- empirical targets centered on read-only P5; conditional beta-binomial receptions and TD; nonnegative blended posterior/empirical yards per reception
- Source Hash
- 84c1fa7ccc1acb66b3d2037c11dd8cee83814a9cc0529d4066a90f7fb9553e4e
- Interval Level
- 0.8
- Football Signals
- Changes
- Targets
- -0.060712890739166
- Receptions
- -0.0080394532142813
- Receiving Yards
- -0.41141518565292
- Version
- nfl_p10_football_signals_v1
- Features
- Wopr3
- 0.19971334717687
- Targets3
- 2
- Snap Last
- 0.55
- Air Share3
- 0.12602718696605
- Snap Mean3
- 0.52666666666667
- Carry Share3
- 0
- Own Carries8
- 28.75
- Own Rush Ypc8
- 4.0739130434783
- Target Share3
- 0.074329544200419
- Own Sack Rate8
- 0.054166666666667
- Air Per Target3
- 14.055555555556
- Role Continuity
- 0.66666666666667
- Opponent Carries8
- 29.875
- Opponent Rush Ypc8
- 4.1548117154812
- Opportunity Share3
- 0.096230158730159
- Opponent Sack Rate8
- 0.068493150684932
- Model Keys
- 0
- receiving_TE_receiving_yards
- 1
- receiving_TE_receptions
- 2
- role_TE_targets
- Target Week
- 10
- Feature Hash
- b17c56063d8db7cff32274b31a2509f573a9d0d989f0afbdbe2876fb78b6574f
- Artifact Hash
- abe5a601293374a3b9ce2e82747d93685f38da588d2c76877a5ff3e28360ee8b
- Target Season
- 2026
- Missing Policy
- retain baseline for unsupported signal
- Baseline Version
- nfl_p10c_wrte_empirical_v1
- Strict Prior Week
- 1
- Historical Validation
- 2013-2022 fit; 2023 tuning; 2024-2025 final proxy-centered draw holdout
- Simulation Draws
- 20000
- Frozen Parameters
- Era Seasons
- 5
- Td Prior Targets
- 250
- Catch Prior Targets
- 10
- Target Mixture Games
- 2
- Efficiency Empirical Blend
- 0
- Efficiency Prior Receptions
- 10
- Parameter Version
- nfl_p10c_wrte_params_v1
- Parameter Selection Season
- 2023
- Source Manifest Hash
- e114b783ba771db50fe78e74f173830dc68d7931338cfde7496dd48263fd2ce3
- Unsupported Components
- 0
- two_point_conversions
- 1
- fumbles_lost
Historical fantasy
PardonMe-derived scoring and usage are not official NFL statistics. Historical floor, ceiling and consistency are backward-looking; rolling, trailing and qualified position comparisons use prior weeks only.
Madden
—EA OVR
Version unavailable · Observed: Unavailable · Team: Jacksonville Jaguars
EA ratings are supplied by EA; no presentation tiers are used.
Key attributes
EA attributes unavailable.
EA rating history
Career
Coverage: —–—
Team history
2026 · JAX · TE · #87
- Player Id
- 1280
- Season Year
- 2026
- Team Abbr
- JAX
- Position Code
- TE
- Jersey Number
- 87
- Status Code
- ACT
- First Week
- 1
- Last Week
- 9
- Source
- nflverse
- Source Hash
- 4a36faa64841065744bc85dbb5f99b2303c626969af9debf267e6171bf227d69
- Source Observed At
- 2026-11-10 12:15:26
- Last Published At
- 2026-10-15 11:15:38
Role summaries
2026 · JAX · 0 supported starts
- Player Id
- 1280
- Season Year
- 2026
- Team Abbr
- JAX
- Games With Workload
- 9
- Supported Starts
- 0
- Primary Backup Games
- 1
- Rotational Games
- 7
- Avg Offense Pct
- 0.49000
- Avg Defense Pct
- 0.00000
- Avg Special Teams Pct
- 0.09000
- Latest Role
- unknown
- Latest Week
- 10
- Coverage State
- partial_depth
- Source Hash
- 9fe9b3862877c7743d2545ca7bffce3f69cf6d2e42a870e734855041ceecbb46
- Last Published At
- 2026-11-13 11:21:44
Full role history
2026 Week 10 · unknown · offense —
- Player Id
- 1280
- Team Abbr
- JAX
- Season Year
- 2026
- Season Type
- REG
- Week Number
- 10
- Game Id
- —
- Position Code
- TE
- Depth Position
- TE
- Formation
- src:b2bef40d8c7de1e96a840ab9
- Depth Rank
- 2
- Derived Role
- unknown
- Starter State
- unknown
- Offense Snaps
- —
- Offense Pct
- —
- Defense Snaps
- —
- Defense Pct
- —
- Special Teams Snaps
- —
- Special Teams Pct
- —
- Confidence
- low
- Evidence Completeness
- depth_only
- Warnings Json
- ["relevant_snap_percentage_unavailable", "no_positive_participation_evidence", "official_depth_only_no_snap_evidence"]
- Source Hash
- 1b9485b7fd907a9121c7e0d5b20cd1158bffcb2d33cd515f6464983e82ee5573
- Source Observed At
- 2026-11-13 11:20:54
- Last Published At
- 2026-11-14 11:19:06
2026 Week 9 · rotational · offense 55%
- Player Id
- 1280
- Team Abbr
- JAX
- Season Year
- 2026
- Season Type
- REG
- Week Number
- 9
- Game Id
- 2026_09_JAX_BAL
- Position Code
- TE
- Depth Position
- TE
- Formation
- —
- Depth Rank
- —
- Derived Role
- rotational
- Starter State
- not_supported
- Offense Snaps
- 31
- Offense Pct
- 0.55000
- Defense Snaps
- 0
- Defense Pct
- 0.00000
- Special Teams Snaps
- 3
- Special Teams Pct
- 0.11000
- Confidence
- medium
- Evidence Completeness
- depth_and_snaps
- Warnings Json
- []
- Source Hash
- a0b97eabb769e74bcba5ef0591170183558c23eacb972761c52449570f505cf1
- Source Observed At
- 2026-11-04 07:31:28
- Last Published At
- 2026-11-11 11:18:59
2026 Week 8 · primary backup · offense 48%
- Player Id
- 1280
- Team Abbr
- JAX
- Season Year
- 2026
- Season Type
- REG
- Week Number
- 8
- Game Id
- 2026_08_IND_JAX
- Position Code
- TE
- Depth Position
- TE
- Formation
- src:b2bef40d8c7de1e96a840ab9
- Depth Rank
- 2
- Derived Role
- primary_backup
- Starter State
- not_supported
- Offense Snaps
- 26
- Offense Pct
- 0.48000
- Defense Snaps
- 0
- Defense Pct
- 0.00000
- Special Teams Snaps
- 1
- Special Teams Pct
- 0.04000
- Confidence
- medium
- Evidence Completeness
- depth_and_snaps
- Warnings Json
- []
- Source Hash
- 5b1b8bebe3af83b011209770650fcbaf8a0e45c23a90d76402f537d836162945
- Source Observed At
- 2026-10-29 07:30:54
- Last Published At
- 2026-11-04 11:18:21
2026 Week 6 · rotational · offense 55%
- Player Id
- 1280
- Team Abbr
- JAX
- Season Year
- 2026
- Season Type
- REG
- Week Number
- 6
- Game Id
- 2026_06_HOU_JAX
- Position Code
- TE
- Depth Position
- TE
- Formation
- —
- Depth Rank
- —
- Derived Role
- rotational
- Starter State
- not_supported
- Offense Snaps
- 39
- Offense Pct
- 0.55000
- Defense Snaps
- 0
- Defense Pct
- 0.00000
- Special Teams Snaps
- 6
- Special Teams Pct
- 0.21000
- Confidence
- medium
- Evidence Completeness
- depth_and_snaps
- Warnings Json
- []
- Source Hash
- ad7f3568b5e59b7d045ec11c16a95e4349cc9342c4b571b3b5bc90ee247d060e
- Source Observed At
- 2026-10-15 07:31:12
- Last Published At
- 2026-10-20 17:18:30
2026 Week 5 · rotational · offense 49%
- Player Id
- 1280
- Team Abbr
- JAX
- Season Year
- 2026
- Season Type
- REG
- Week Number
- 5
- Game Id
- 2026_05_PHI_JAX
- Position Code
- TE
- Depth Position
- TE
- Formation
- —
- Depth Rank
- —
- Derived Role
- rotational
- Starter State
- not_supported
- Offense Snaps
- 35
- Offense Pct
- 0.49000
- Defense Snaps
- 0
- Defense Pct
- 0.00000
- Special Teams Snaps
- 5
- Special Teams Pct
- 0.19000
- Confidence
- medium
- Evidence Completeness
- depth_and_snaps
- Warnings Json
- []
- Source Hash
- 31a62bb18c21cefcf05fa4f8a9748986d563813076d07d61dfd3443e9e947dc8
- Source Observed At
- 2026-10-11 11:17:16
- Last Published At
- 2026-10-15 11:21:49
2026 Week 4 · rotational · offense 34%
- Player Id
- 1280
- Team Abbr
- JAX
- Season Year
- 2026
- Season Type
- REG
- Week Number
- 4
- Game Id
- 2026_04_JAX_CIN
- Position Code
- TE
- Depth Position
- TE
- Formation
- —
- Depth Rank
- —
- Derived Role
- rotational
- Starter State
- not_supported
- Offense Snaps
- 21
- Offense Pct
- 0.34000
- Defense Snaps
- 0
- Defense Pct
- 0.00000
- Special Teams Snaps
- 0
- Special Teams Pct
- 0.00000
- Confidence
- medium
- Evidence Completeness
- depth_and_snaps
- Warnings Json
- []
- Source Hash
- d537be458229f5fed315ed973d57ecb6cb62fab6ba2d16b0845c9a909bf1578f
- Source Observed At
- 2026-10-01 07:30:48
- Last Published At
- 2026-10-15 11:21:49
2026 Week 3 · rotational · offense 45%
- Player Id
- 1280
- Team Abbr
- JAX
- Season Year
- 2026
- Season Type
- REG
- Week Number
- 3
- Game Id
- 2026_03_NE_JAX
- Position Code
- TE
- Depth Position
- TE
- Formation
- —
- Depth Rank
- —
- Derived Role
- rotational
- Starter State
- not_supported
- Offense Snaps
- 28
- Offense Pct
- 0.45000
- Defense Snaps
- 0
- Defense Pct
- 0.00000
- Special Teams Snaps
- 1
- Special Teams Pct
- 0.04000
- Confidence
- medium
- Evidence Completeness
- depth_and_snaps
- Warnings Json
- []
- Source Hash
- 5cbf446a705bc1dd7f4e08b2d0d2b39f91e97ca2b2d456420192537686e32279
- Source Observed At
- 2026-09-30 23:43:27
- Last Published At
- 2026-10-15 11:21:49
2026 Week 2 · rotational · offense 39%
- Player Id
- 1280
- Team Abbr
- JAX
- Season Year
- 2026
- Season Type
- REG
- Week Number
- 2
- Game Id
- 2026_02_JAX_DEN
- Position Code
- TE
- Depth Position
- TE
- Formation
- —
- Depth Rank
- —
- Derived Role
- rotational
- Starter State
- not_supported
- Offense Snaps
- 23
- Offense Pct
- 0.39000
- Defense Snaps
- 0
- Defense Pct
- 0.00000
- Special Teams Snaps
- 0
- Special Teams Pct
- 0.00000
- Confidence
- medium
- Evidence Completeness
- depth_and_snaps
- Warnings Json
- []
- Source Hash
- e2a4f8327917b925feafed6633caf2e2bd98cab72de2220b0756a4aaf9d88632
- Source Observed At
- 2026-09-18 16:46:12
- Last Published At
- 2026-10-15 11:21:49
2026 Week 1 · rotational · offense 67%
- Player Id
- 1280
- Team Abbr
- JAX
- Season Year
- 2026
- Season Type
- REG
- Week Number
- 1
- Game Id
- 2026_01_CLE_JAX
- Position Code
- TE
- Depth Position
- TE
- Formation
- —
- Depth Rank
- —
- Derived Role
- rotational
- Starter State
- not_supported
- Offense Snaps
- 38
- Offense Pct
- 0.67000
- Defense Snaps
- 0
- Defense Pct
- 0.00000
- Special Teams Snaps
- 3
- Special Teams Pct
- 0.13000
- Confidence
- medium
- Evidence Completeness
- depth_and_snaps
- Warnings Json
- []
- Source Hash
- ae89b096a7d2c8384233bfa01eeee0597ee3d6fc944b54637b8f22eeb992f440
- Source Observed At
- 2026-09-16 16:27:46
- Last Published At
- 2026-10-15 11:21:49
More
Availability detail and history
Limited · stale · reported 2026-10-18 12:34:57
Injury wording unavailable · prior factual role Rotational · prior-game snap share 49%
- Player Id
- 1280
- Team Id
- 47
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 6
- Game Id
- 10597
- Headline
- Limited
- Canonical Status
- unknown
- Practice Participation
- limited
- Game Designation
- unknown
- Inactive Status
- unknown
- Reserve Status
- unknown
- Roster Status
- unknown
- Injury Wording
- —
- Illness Flag
- —
- Report At
- 2026-10-18 12:34:57
- Observed At
- 2026-10-18 12:34:57
- Source Owner
- HOU
- Source Url
- https://www.houstontexans.com/team/injury-report
- Freshness State
- stale
- Conflict State
- none
- Unknown State
- 0
- Evidence Completeness
- partial
- Prior Role
- rotational
- Prior Snap Share
- 0.490000
- Trailing Snap Share
- 0.426667
- Evidence Json
- {"observation_ids": [427254]}
- Source Manifest Hash
- 593530868c225ccfbcf7cd89cf566c4c7bdad597a3f258bc64894de54c070a2c
- Derivation Version
- nfl_availability_episode_v4
- Source Published At
- 2026-10-27 11:20:02
- Last Published At
- 2026-10-27 11:20:02
Source: HOU
LIMITED · 2026-10-18 12:34:57
- Availability Observation Id
- 427254
- Player Id
- 1280
- Team Id
- 47
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 6
- Game Id
- 10597
- Observation Type
- practice
- Canonical Status
- unknown
- Provider Status
- LIMITED
- Practice Participation
- limited
- Game Designation
- unknown
- Inactive Status
- unknown
- Reserve Status
- unknown
- Roster Status
- unknown
- Injury Wording
- —
- Illness Flag
- —
- Source Owner
- HOU
- Source Url
- https://www.houstontexans.com/team/injury-report
- Source Published At
- —
- Observed At
- 2026-10-18 12:34:57
- Effective At
- 2026-10-18 12:34:57
- Ingested At
- 2026-10-18 12:35:02
- Verification State
- verified
- Evidence Completeness
- partial
- Warnings Json
- —
- Correction Of Observation Id
- —
- Source Hash
- 5733646ef936356b8ff6e388fb287bd7e4c850840f3c13c6b3ad5edc9187fbbf
- Source Published To Serving At
- 2026-10-19 11:19:31
LIMITED · 2026-10-18 12:19:58
- Availability Observation Id
- 427157
- Player Id
- 1280
- Team Id
- 47
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 6
- Game Id
- 10597
- Observation Type
- practice
- Canonical Status
- unknown
- Provider Status
- LIMITED
- Practice Participation
- limited
- Game Designation
- unknown
- Inactive Status
- unknown
- Reserve Status
- unknown
- Roster Status
- unknown
- Injury Wording
- —
- Illness Flag
- —
- Source Owner
- HOU
- Source Url
- https://www.houstontexans.com/team/injury-report
- Source Published At
- —
- Observed At
- 2026-10-18 12:19:58
- Effective At
- 2026-10-18 12:19:58
- Ingested At
- 2026-10-18 12:20:34
- Verification State
- verified
- Evidence Completeness
- partial
- Warnings Json
- —
- Correction Of Observation Id
- —
- Source Hash
- 47c62a4e9d45e8c5043085e196a8ad34c47b740181542eeefe0803afb45c3fae
- Source Published To Serving At
- 2026-10-19 11:19:31
LIMITED · 2026-10-18 12:04:57
- Availability Observation Id
- 427127
- Player Id
- 1280
- Team Id
- 47
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 6
- Game Id
- 10597
- Observation Type
- practice
- Canonical Status
- unknown
- Provider Status
- LIMITED
- Practice Participation
- limited
- Game Designation
- unknown
- Inactive Status
- unknown
- Reserve Status
- unknown
- Roster Status
- unknown
- Injury Wording
- —
- Illness Flag
- —
- Source Owner
- HOU
- Source Url
- https://www.houstontexans.com/team/injury-report
- Source Published At
- —
- Observed At
- 2026-10-18 12:04:57
- Effective At
- 2026-10-18 12:04:57
- Ingested At
- 2026-10-18 12:05:02
- Verification State
- verified
- Evidence Completeness
- partial
- Warnings Json
- —
- Correction Of Observation Id
- —
- Source Hash
- 2ff7801102da4dc361bb38c1c32fa3183315684c1d58d836824cdf1059cb8faf
- Source Published To Serving At
- 2026-10-19 11:19:31
LIMITED · 2026-10-18 11:49:58
- Availability Observation Id
- 426559
- Player Id
- 1280
- Team Id
- 47
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 6
- Game Id
- 10597
- Observation Type
- practice
- Canonical Status
- unknown
- Provider Status
- LIMITED
- Practice Participation
- limited
- Game Designation
- unknown
- Inactive Status
- unknown
- Reserve Status
- unknown
- Roster Status
- unknown
- Injury Wording
- —
- Illness Flag
- —
- Source Owner
- HOU
- Source Url
- https://www.houstontexans.com/team/injury-report
- Source Published At
- —
- Observed At
- 2026-10-18 11:49:58
- Effective At
- 2026-10-18 11:49:58
- Ingested At
- 2026-10-18 11:50:39
- Verification State
- verified
- Evidence Completeness
- partial
- Warnings Json
- —
- Correction Of Observation Id
- —
- Source Hash
- 35d2e93a4c581bc9a9cddd23c1b8426ff806c9476f36ef619591eb28505c71aa
- Source Published To Serving At
- 2026-10-19 11:19:31
LIMITED · 2026-10-18 11:34:57
- Availability Observation Id
- 426529
- Player Id
- 1280
- Team Id
- 47
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 6
- Game Id
- 10597
- Observation Type
- practice
- Canonical Status
- unknown
- Provider Status
- LIMITED
- Practice Participation
- limited
- Game Designation
- unknown
- Inactive Status
- unknown
- Reserve Status
- unknown
- Roster Status
- unknown
- Injury Wording
- —
- Illness Flag
- —
- Source Owner
- HOU
- Source Url
- https://www.houstontexans.com/team/injury-report
- Source Published At
- —
- Observed At
- 2026-10-18 11:34:57
- Effective At
- 2026-10-18 11:34:57
- Ingested At
- 2026-10-18 11:35:41
- Verification State
- verified
- Evidence Completeness
- partial
- Warnings Json
- —
- Correction Of Observation Id
- —
- Source Hash
- 86b7f75e857b7c42a5cda63159e194229ba0c483357103e32fa3a5f8b9584d00
- Source Published To Serving At
- 2026-10-19 11:19:31
LIMITED · 2026-10-18 11:19:58
- Availability Observation Id
- 426432
- Player Id
- 1280
- Team Id
- 47
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 6
- Game Id
- 10597
- Observation Type
- practice
- Canonical Status
- unknown
- Provider Status
- LIMITED
- Practice Participation
- limited
- Game Designation
- unknown
- Inactive Status
- unknown
- Reserve Status
- unknown
- Roster Status
- unknown
- Injury Wording
- —
- Illness Flag
- —
- Source Owner
- HOU
- Source Url
- https://www.houstontexans.com/team/injury-report
- Source Published At
- —
- Observed At
- 2026-10-18 11:19:58
- Effective At
- 2026-10-18 11:19:58
- Ingested At
- 2026-10-18 11:20:05
- Verification State
- verified
- Evidence Completeness
- partial
- Warnings Json
- —
- Correction Of Observation Id
- —
- Source Hash
- b7e8016681e84ef29a15dcebca0b1468479e5e8c51a8b6f6af559461849a8f0a
- Source Published To Serving At
- 2026-10-19 11:19:31
LIMITED · 2026-10-18 11:04:57
- Availability Observation Id
- 426402
- Player Id
- 1280
- Team Id
- 47
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 6
- Game Id
- 10597
- Observation Type
- practice
- Canonical Status
- unknown
- Provider Status
- LIMITED
- Practice Participation
- limited
- Game Designation
- unknown
- Inactive Status
- unknown
- Reserve Status
- unknown
- Roster Status
- unknown
- Injury Wording
- —
- Illness Flag
- —
- Source Owner
- HOU
- Source Url
- https://www.houstontexans.com/team/injury-report
- Source Published At
- —
- Observed At
- 2026-10-18 11:04:57
- Effective At
- 2026-10-18 11:04:57
- Ingested At
- 2026-10-18 11:05:02
- Verification State
- verified
- Evidence Completeness
- partial
- Warnings Json
- —
- Correction Of Observation Id
- —
- Source Hash
- 31cab9453f77cab3c5518da10dd9876490c84d2701edc79453fb99159aa0acb1
- Source Published To Serving At
- 2026-10-18 11:19:03
LIMITED · 2026-10-18 10:49:57
- Availability Observation Id
- 425834
- Player Id
- 1280
- Team Id
- 47
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 6
- Game Id
- 10597
- Observation Type
- practice
- Canonical Status
- unknown
- Provider Status
- LIMITED
- Practice Participation
- limited
- Game Designation
- unknown
- Inactive Status
- unknown
- Reserve Status
- unknown
- Roster Status
- unknown
- Injury Wording
- —
- Illness Flag
- —
- Source Owner
- HOU
- Source Url
- https://www.houstontexans.com/team/injury-report
- Source Published At
- —
- Observed At
- 2026-10-18 10:49:57
- Effective At
- 2026-10-18 10:49:57
- Ingested At
- 2026-10-18 10:50:02
- Verification State
- verified
- Evidence Completeness
- partial
- Warnings Json
- —
- Correction Of Observation Id
- —
- Source Hash
- f7e900677143f7684034240860ca4c72e8987d60b87953e477bdb53aff441efd
- Source Published To Serving At
- 2026-10-18 11:19:03
Advanced distributions and matchup context
Receiving distribution
fallback_distribution. Suppressed or unavailable values are not projected as zero.
- Game Id
- 10525
- Player Id
- 1280
- Team Id
- 47
- Opponent Team Id
- 40
- Position Code
- TE
- Model Version
- nfl_p10c_wrte_empirical_v1
- Parameter Version
- nfl_p10c_wrte_params_v1
- Evidence Tier
- position_current_era_fallback
- Confidence
- Insufficient Evidence
- Distribution Json
- {"state": "fallback_distribution", "targets": {"mean": 3.6011, "median": 3.0, "interval_80": {"lower": 1.0, "upper": 7.0}}, "receptions": {"mean": 2.5507, "median": 2.0, "interval_80": {"lower": 0.0, "upper": 6.0}}, "receiving_tds": {"mean": 0.18935, "median": 0.0, "interval_80": {"lower": 0.0, "upper": 1.0}, "probabilities": {"0": 0.8325, "1": 0.14805, "1+": 0.1675, "2+": 0.01945}}, "receiving_yards": {"mean": 26.22915, "median": 21.0, "interval_80": {"lower": 0.0, "upper": 62.0}}}
- Evidence Json
- {"routes": {"state": "unsupported", "reason": "routes are not retained in the governed historical weekly evidence"}, "p9i_context": [{"pca1_index": null, "matchup_code": "qb_vs_secondary", "model_effect": "explanation_only", "equal_z_index": null}, {"pca1_index": null, "matchup_code": "receiving_vs_secondary", "model_effect": "explanation_only", "equal_z_index": null}], "current_truth": {"role": {"state": "unknown", "depth_rank": null, "source_hash": null, "team_match_state": "missing_current_team_role"}, "availability": {"state": "unknown", "reason": "current_availability_unknown_projection_retained", "values": {"roster_status": "unknown", "reserve_status": "unknown", "inactive_status": "unknown", "canonical_status": "unknown", "game_designation": "unknown"}, "conflict_state": "none", "freshness_state": "unknown", "game_scope_state": "old_or_unknown", "team_match_state": "unknown", "serve_distribution": true}, "availability_source_manifest_hash": null}, "individualized": false, "unknown_inputs": ["routes", "individual CB assignments", "validated causal P9/P9I receiving coefficient"], "fallback_reason": "insufficient_player_history", "p5_target_center": {"value": 3.590431749231, "contract": "accepted P5 target center; read-only", "workload_target": "targets"}, "projection_basis": "model_imputed_baseline", "madden_model_effect": "none; explanation-only", "meaningful_definition": ">=1 target and >=3% of team WR/TE targets", "player_meaningful_games": 0}
- Reproducibility Json
- {"seed": 105250135, "method": "empirical targets centered on read-only P5; conditional beta-binomial receptions and TD; nonnegative blended posterior/empirical yards per reception", "source_hash": "5ab15e7546c45642ebef5207d8f0bffdf16f421054ce0265998db39b92c47761", "interval_level": 0.8, "simulation_draws": 20000, "frozen_parameters": {"era_seasons": 5, "td_prior_targets": 250, "catch_prior_targets": 10, "target_mixture_games": 2, "efficiency_empirical_blend": 0.0, "efficiency_prior_receptions": 10}, "parameter_version": "nfl_p10c_wrte_params_v1", "parameter_selection_season": 2023}
- Content Hash
- a5f9ed095d2dc8a7d240fb0989e516df94fdf6da425e1d03207b09238aeb519e
- Observed At
- 2026-09-01 23:59:00
- Generated At
- 2026-09-01 23:59:00
- Published At
- 2026-09-09 11:30:20
- Team Abbr
- JAX
- Opponent Abbr
- CLE
- Distribution
- State
- fallback_distribution
- Targets
- Mean
- 3.6011
- Median
- 3
- Interval 80
- Lower
- 1
- Upper
- 7
- Receptions
- Mean
- 2.5507
- Median
- 2
- Interval 80
- Lower
- 0
- Upper
- 6
- Receiving Tds
- Mean
- 0.18935
- Median
- 0
- Interval 80
- Lower
- 0
- Upper
- 1
- Probabilities
- 0
- 0.8325
- 1
- 0.14805
- 1+
- 0.1675
- 2+
- 0.01945
- Receiving Yards
- Mean
- 26.22915
- Median
- 21
- Interval 80
- Lower
- 0
- Upper
- 62
- Evidence
- Routes
- State
- unsupported
- Reason
- routes are not retained in the governed historical weekly evidence
- P9i Context
- 0
- Pca1 Index
- —
- Matchup Code
- qb_vs_secondary
- Model Effect
- explanation_only
- Equal Z Index
- —
- 1
- Pca1 Index
- —
- Matchup Code
- receiving_vs_secondary
- Model Effect
- explanation_only
- Equal Z Index
- —
- Current Truth
- Role
- State
- unknown
- Depth Rank
- —
- Source Hash
- —
- Team Match State
- missing_current_team_role
- Availability
- State
- unknown
- Reason
- current_availability_unknown_projection_retained
- Values
- Roster Status
- unknown
- Reserve Status
- unknown
- Inactive Status
- unknown
- Canonical Status
- unknown
- Game Designation
- unknown
- Conflict State
- none
- Freshness State
- unknown
- Game Scope State
- old_or_unknown
- Team Match State
- unknown
- Serve Distribution
- 1
- Availability Source Manifest Hash
- —
- Individualized
- Unknown Inputs
- 0
- routes
- 1
- individual CB assignments
- 2
- validated causal P9/P9I receiving coefficient
- Fallback Reason
- insufficient_player_history
- P5 Target Center
- Value
- 3.590431749231
- Contract
- accepted P5 target center; read-only
- Workload Target
- targets
- Projection Basis
- model_imputed_baseline
- Madden Model Effect
- none; explanation-only
- Meaningful Definition
- >=1 target and >=3% of team WR/TE targets
- Player Meaningful Games
- 0
- Reproducibility
- Seed
- 105250135
- Method
- empirical targets centered on read-only P5; conditional beta-binomial receptions and TD; nonnegative blended posterior/empirical yards per reception
- Source Hash
- 5ab15e7546c45642ebef5207d8f0bffdf16f421054ce0265998db39b92c47761
- Interval Level
- 0.8
- Simulation Draws
- 20000
- Frozen Parameters
- Era Seasons
- 5
- Td Prior Targets
- 250
- Catch Prior Targets
- 10
- Target Mixture Games
- 2
- Efficiency Empirical Blend
- 0
- Efficiency Prior Receptions
- 10
- Parameter Version
- nfl_p10c_wrte_params_v1
- Parameter Selection Season
- 2023
Unit, passing and scoring context
- Unit Matchups
- Passing Matchups
- Scoring Opportunities
- Team
- Player
- Matchup Context
- State
- unknown
- Game Id
- 10658
- Position
- TE
- Role
- State
- supported_current_official_depth
- Label
- TE2
- Depth Rank
- 2
- Boundary
- Official depth is role context; it does not establish starter status, snap share or workload share.
- Availability
- State
- unknown
- Headline
- Limited
- Boundary
- Unknown, not-yet-available and reserve-unknown are not healthy, active, available or reduced-usage conclusions.
- Prior Role
- State
- available
- Offense Pct
- 0.55
- Derived Role
- primary_backup
- Evidence Label
- same_season_prior_week_observed_role
- Boundary
- Backward-looking observed workload does not establish current workload or starter status.
- Projection
- Basis
- evidence_backed_individualized_projection
- Boundary
- P9 matchup environments explain context only and do not change the accepted P5 player projection.
- Unit
- —
- Passing
- —
- Scoring Opportunity
- Player
- State
- unknown
- Reason
- No supported prior scoring-opportunity evidence
- Team Matchup
- State
- unknown
- Reason
- No supported prior team scoring-opportunity evidence
- Boundary
- Prior 2025 scoring-opportunity evidence is explanation only and does not change P5 or calculate touchdown probability.
- Individual Coverage
- unknown_team_environment_is_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Replacement Effect
- unknown_not_inferred_from_depth_or_availability
- Primary Context
- 0
- passing
- Broader Context
- 0
- sack
- Boundary
- Team pass defense is not a CB assignment, separation, man/zone matchup or individual defender grade. No target or workload effect is inferred.
These are explanation-only values. Pressure, individual assignments, coverage and replacement effects remain unavailable unless retained above.
Sources & Methodology
Official depth, provider box scores, governed fantasy serving, EA ratings, PardonMe projections, matchup context and market comparisons retain source lineage. Markets are not model inputs.
Methodology: P5 is read-only workload and fantasy serving. P10 distributions are independent, governed models. P9 context and Madden analysis explain rather than adjust them. Missing, insufficient, conflicting, stale, or unsupported evidence remains unavailable.
Provenance: nflverse season totals, provider game evidence, official availability/depth, EA ratings and dated observations are shown with their retained fields above.