Right now
RoleRB2Official depth chart
StatusUnknown
AvailabilityNo confirmed injury/status update yet.Unknown does not mean healthy or active.
SeasonProduction unavailable
PardonMe this weekvs MIA · Sun Sep 13 · 8:25 PM
Carries10.7
Rush yards46
Targets2.6
Receptions2.0
TD chance32%
Full-PPR9.9
Baseline projection — 2025 production unavailable · Insufficient Evidence · Full-PPR range 2.0–17.8
Today
Matchupvs MIA · Not yet available
Role and prior workload— · backward-looking, not a starter or share inference
Projected opportunities13.2
ProjectionBaseline projection — 2025 production unavailable · Insufficient Evidence · 80% Full-PPR 2.0–17.8
Matchup explanation
Team run environment does not infer carry share, target share, starter status, snap share, blocking assignment or replacement effect. Pressure, individual coverage and replacement effects remain unavailable.
- Current Role
- State
- available
- Team Abbr
- LV
- Depth Rank
- 2
- Position Code
- RB
- Depth Position
- RB
- Evidence Label
- current_2026_official_preseason_depth
- Roster Membership
- active
- Formal Roster Status
- active
- Source Manifest Hash
- 7ffa367cab9bf99db38fe7b1d687b251419c689a204ed0653935c4a53fe380c0
- Prior Observed Role
- State
- unknown
- Game Id
- —
- Team Abbr
- —
- Depth Rank
- —
- Defense Pct
- —
- Offense Pct
- —
- Season Type
- —
- Season Year
- —
- Week Number
- —
- Derived Role
- —
- Starter State
- —
- Evidence Label
- no_prior_observed_role
- Special Teams Pct
- —
- Source Manifest Hash
- —
- Role Continuity Games
- —
- Context
- State
- supported
- Game Id
- 10527
- Position
- RB
- Role
- State
- supported_current_official_depth
- Label
- RB2
- Depth Rank
- 2
- Boundary
- Official depth is role context; it does not establish starter status, snap share or workload share.
- Availability
- State
- not_yet_available
- Headline
- —
- Boundary
- Unknown, not-yet-available and reserve-unknown are not healthy, active, available or reduced-usage conclusions.
- Prior Role
- State
- unknown
- Offense Pct
- —
- Derived Role
- —
- Evidence Label
- no_prior_observed_role
- Boundary
- Backward-looking observed workload does not establish current workload or starter status.
- Projection
- Basis
- model_imputed_baseline
- Boundary
- P9 matchup environments explain context only and do not change the accepted P5 player projection.
- Unit
- Game Id
- 10527
- Offense Team Id
- 49
- Defense Team Id
- 52
- Offense Abbr
- LV
- Defense Abbr
- MIA
- Pressure Json
- {"state": "unknown", "reason": "Retained nflverse player statistics include QB hits but not total pressure events; QB hits are not relabeled as pressures."}
- Sack Json
- {"edge": "defense", "state": "supported", "defense": {"rate": 0.0703971119133574, "sacks": 39.0, "opponent_dropbacks": 554.0, "league_rank_high_is_best": 16}, "offense": {"rate": 0.11053540587219345, "dropbacks": 579.0, "sacks_allowed": 64.0, "league_rank_low_is_best": 32}, "denominator": "QB dropbacks = pass attempts + sacks suffered", "league_medians": {"defense_sack_rate": 0.06745662047280773, "offense_sack_rate": 0.06683513419309864}}
- Run Json
- {"edge": "mixed", "state": "supported", "defense": {"opponent_carries": 469.0, "opponent_rush_yards": 2251.0, "league_rank_low_is_best": 28, "yards_per_carry_allowed": 4.79957356076759}, "offense": {"carries": 369.0, "rush_yards": 1317.0, "yards_per_carry": 3.569105691056911, "league_rank_high_is_best": 32}, "denominator": "Retained player carries; rushing yards divided by carries", "league_medians": {"offense_yards_per_carry": 4.319816463259086, "defense_yards_per_carry_allowed": 4.29079863438525}}
- Sample Basis
- 2025 REG nflverse weekly player statistics; full retained team schedule
- Provenance Json
- {"table": "pardonme_warehouse.nfl_player_week_statistics", "season": 2025, "provider": "nflverse", "season_type": "REG", "source_hash": "96ed9fc2342cce01f3535f89b0edffc1e317ed2d2a210c163172560ecef4f94f"}
- Missingness Json
- {"pressure_rate": "unknown_total_pressure_events_not_retained", "individual_ol_assignments": "unknown", "current_replacement_effect": "unknown_not_inferred_from_depth_or_availability", "pressures_allowed_by_lineman": "unknown"}
- Confidence
- supported_prior_season_team_aggregate
- Explanation
- LV protection allowed 64.0 sacks on 579 dropbacks (11.1%, league rank 32/32 with low rate best); MIA produced 39.0 sacks on 554 opponent dropbacks (7.0%, rank 16/32 with high rate best). On the ground, LV averaged 3.57 yards per carry and MIA allowed 4.80. Pressure rate remains Unknown because total pressure events are not retained.
- Contract Version
- nfl_unit_matchup_p9a_v1
- Content Hash
- 95b0f318cb790c9cc28700a92d25939bc4cdd04595dc0c8ca5eb62bb3d9fbf84
- Derived At
- 2026-08-24 19:05:02
- Published At
- 2026-08-24 19:05:02
- Pressure
- State
- unknown
- Reason
- Retained nflverse player statistics include QB hits but not total pressure events; QB hits are not relabeled as pressures.
- Sack
- Edge
- defense
- State
- supported
- Defense
- Rate
- 0.070397111913357
- Sacks
- 39
- Opponent Dropbacks
- 554
- League Rank High Is Best
- 16
- Offense
- Rate
- 0.11053540587219
- Dropbacks
- 579
- Sacks Allowed
- 64
- League Rank Low Is Best
- 32
- Denominator
- QB dropbacks = pass attempts + sacks suffered
- League Medians
- Defense Sack Rate
- 0.067456620472808
- Offense Sack Rate
- 0.066835134193099
- Run
- Edge
- mixed
- State
- supported
- Defense
- Opponent Carries
- 469
- Opponent Rush Yards
- 2251
- League Rank Low Is Best
- 28
- Yards Per Carry Allowed
- 4.7995735607676
- Offense
- Carries
- 369
- Rush Yards
- 1317
- Yards Per Carry
- 3.5691056910569
- League Rank High Is Best
- 32
- Denominator
- Retained player carries; rushing yards divided by carries
- League Medians
- Offense Yards Per Carry
- 4.3198164632591
- Defense Yards Per Carry Allowed
- 4.2907986343852
- Provenance
- Table
- pardonme_warehouse.nfl_player_week_statistics
- Season
- 2025
- Provider
- nflverse
- Season Type
- REG
- Source Hash
- 96ed9fc2342cce01f3535f89b0edffc1e317ed2d2a210c163172560ecef4f94f
- Missingness
- Pressure Rate
- unknown_total_pressure_events_not_retained
- Individual Ol Assignments
- unknown
- Current Replacement Effect
- unknown_not_inferred_from_depth_or_availability
- Pressures Allowed By Lineman
- unknown
- Passing
- Game Id
- 10527
- Offense Team Id
- 49
- Defense Team Id
- 52
- Offense Abbr
- LV
- Defense Abbr
- MIA
- Completion Json
- {"edge": "offense", "state": "supported", "defense": {"value": 0.7203883495145631, "numerator": 371.0, "league_rank": 32, "opponent_attempts": 515.0}, "offense": {"value": 0.6601941747572816, "attempts": 515.0, "numerator": 340.0, "league_rank": 11}, "denominator": "completions / pass attempts", "league_teams": 32, "league_medians": {"defense": 0.6470757053954443, "offense": 0.6443706063268893}}
- Efficiency Json
- {"edge": "mixed", "state": "supported", "defense": {"value": 7.611650485436893, "numerator": 3920.0, "league_rank": 26, "opponent_attempts": 515.0}, "offense": {"value": 6.436893203883495, "attempts": 515.0, "numerator": 3315.0, "league_rank": 27}, "denominator": "passing yards / pass attempts", "league_teams": 32, "league_medians": {"defense": 7.041235616438357, "offense": 6.941278879916052}}
- Touchdown Json
- {"edge": "mixed", "state": "supported", "defense": {"value": 0.05631067961165048, "numerator": 29.0, "league_rank": 26, "opponent_attempts": 515.0}, "offense": {"value": 0.03883495145631067, "attempts": 515.0, "numerator": 20.0, "league_rank": 26}, "denominator": "passing touchdowns / pass attempts", "league_teams": 32, "league_medians": {"defense": 0.04644643781266172, "offense": 0.04659846191321293}}
- Interception Json
- {"edge": "mixed", "state": "supported", "defense": {"value": 0.017475728155339806, "numerator": 9.0, "league_rank": 23, "opponent_attempts": 515.0}, "offense": {"value": 0.036893203883495145, "attempts": 515.0, "numerator": 19.0, "league_rank": 30}, "denominator": "passing interceptions / pass attempts", "league_teams": 32, "league_medians": {"defense": 0.02121271115370792, "offense": 0.02025329436496949}}
- Explosive Json
- {"edge": "mixed", "state": "supported", "defense": {"value": 0.09902912621359224, "numerator": 51.0, "league_rank": 25, "opponent_attempts": 515.0}, "offense": {"value": 0.07184466019417475, "attempts": 515.0, "numerator": 37.0, "league_rank": 29}, "denominator": "retained nflverse 20+ yard passing plays / pass attempts", "league_teams": 32, "league_medians": {"defense": 0.08874977674584747, "offense": 0.08576318929598403}}
- Advanced Json
- {"epa": "unknown_incomplete_and_aggregation_semantics_not_governed", "cpoe": "unknown_incomplete_and_aggregation_semantics_not_governed", "state": "unknown", "reason": "EPA/CPOE are activity-dependent and incomplete in retained rows; success rate and 2025 REG PBP are not retained.", "success_rate": "unknown_not_retained_in_2025_weekly_player_facts"}
- Coverage Json
- {"man_zone_rate": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence", "cb_wr_assignment": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence", "separation_allowed": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence", "target_specific_coverage": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence", "individual_defender_grade": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence"}
- Sample Basis
- 2025 REG nflverse weekly player statistics; full retained team schedule
- Provenance Json
- {"table": "pardonme_warehouse.nfl_player_week_statistics", "season": 2025, "provider": "nflverse", "season_type": "REG", "source_hash": "96ed9fc2342cce01f3535f89b0edffc1e317ed2d2a210c163172560ecef4f94f"}
- Missingness Json
- {"advanced": {"epa": "unknown_incomplete_and_aggregation_semantics_not_governed", "cpoe": "unknown_incomplete_and_aggregation_semantics_not_governed", "state": "unknown", "reason": "EPA/CPOE are activity-dependent and incomplete in retained rows; success rate and 2025 REG PBP are not retained.", "success_rate": "unknown_not_retained_in_2025_weekly_player_facts"}, "coverage": {"man_zone_rate": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence", "cb_wr_assignment": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence", "separation_allowed": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence", "target_specific_coverage": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence", "individual_defender_grade": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence"}}
- Confidence
- supported_prior_season_team_passing_aggregate
- Explanation
- completion: LV passing-offense advantage; efficiency: mixed evidence; touchdown: mixed evidence; interception: mixed evidence; explosive: mixed evidence.
- Contract Version
- nfl_passing_matchup_p9c_v1
- Content Hash
- 795b4a7c008048d283e4af40abb46a0423628faf2b5718f9ba109f7175e98c2f
- Derived At
- 2026-08-25 05:06:49
- Published At
- 2026-08-25 05:06:49
- Completion
- Edge
- offense
- State
- supported
- Defense
- Value
- 0.72038834951456
- Numerator
- 371
- League Rank
- 32
- Opponent Attempts
- 515
- Offense
- Value
- 0.66019417475728
- Attempts
- 515
- Numerator
- 340
- League Rank
- 11
- Denominator
- completions / pass attempts
- League Teams
- 32
- League Medians
- Defense
- 0.64707570539544
- Offense
- 0.64437060632689
- Efficiency
- Edge
- mixed
- State
- supported
- Defense
- Value
- 7.6116504854369
- Numerator
- 3920
- League Rank
- 26
- Opponent Attempts
- 515
- Offense
- Value
- 6.4368932038835
- Attempts
- 515
- Numerator
- 3315
- League Rank
- 27
- Denominator
- passing yards / pass attempts
- League Teams
- 32
- League Medians
- Defense
- 7.0412356164384
- Offense
- 6.9412788799161
- Touchdown
- Edge
- mixed
- State
- supported
- Defense
- Value
- 0.05631067961165
- Numerator
- 29
- League Rank
- 26
- Opponent Attempts
- 515
- Offense
- Value
- 0.038834951456311
- Attempts
- 515
- Numerator
- 20
- League Rank
- 26
- Denominator
- passing touchdowns / pass attempts
- League Teams
- 32
- League Medians
- Defense
- 0.046446437812662
- Offense
- 0.046598461913213
- Interception
- Edge
- mixed
- State
- supported
- Defense
- Value
- 0.01747572815534
- Numerator
- 9
- League Rank
- 23
- Opponent Attempts
- 515
- Offense
- Value
- 0.036893203883495
- Attempts
- 515
- Numerator
- 19
- League Rank
- 30
- Denominator
- passing interceptions / pass attempts
- League Teams
- 32
- League Medians
- Defense
- 0.021212711153708
- Offense
- 0.020253294364969
- Explosive
- Edge
- mixed
- State
- supported
- Defense
- Value
- 0.099029126213592
- Numerator
- 51
- League Rank
- 25
- Opponent Attempts
- 515
- Offense
- Value
- 0.071844660194175
- Attempts
- 515
- Numerator
- 37
- League Rank
- 29
- Denominator
- retained nflverse 20+ yard passing plays / pass attempts
- League Teams
- 32
- League Medians
- Defense
- 0.088749776745847
- Offense
- 0.085763189295984
- Advanced
- Epa
- unknown_incomplete_and_aggregation_semantics_not_governed
- Cpoe
- unknown_incomplete_and_aggregation_semantics_not_governed
- State
- unknown
- Reason
- EPA/CPOE are activity-dependent and incomplete in retained rows; success rate and 2025 REG PBP are not retained.
- Success Rate
- unknown_not_retained_in_2025_weekly_player_facts
- Coverage
- Man Zone Rate
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Cb Wr Assignment
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Separation Allowed
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Target Specific Coverage
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Individual Defender Grade
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Provenance
- Table
- pardonme_warehouse.nfl_player_week_statistics
- Season
- 2025
- Provider
- nflverse
- Season Type
- REG
- Source Hash
- 96ed9fc2342cce01f3535f89b0edffc1e317ed2d2a210c163172560ecef4f94f
- Missingness
- Advanced
- Epa
- unknown_incomplete_and_aggregation_semantics_not_governed
- Cpoe
- unknown_incomplete_and_aggregation_semantics_not_governed
- State
- unknown
- Reason
- EPA/CPOE are activity-dependent and incomplete in retained rows; success rate and 2025 REG PBP are not retained.
- Success Rate
- unknown_not_retained_in_2025_weekly_player_facts
- Coverage
- Man Zone Rate
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Cb Wr Assignment
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Separation Allowed
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Target Specific Coverage
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Individual Defender Grade
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Scoring Opportunity
- Player
- State
- unknown
- Reason
- No supported prior scoring-opportunity evidence
- Team Matchup
- State
- supported
- Sample
- Season
- 2025
- Season Type
- REG
- Defense Games
- 17
- Offense Games
- 15
- Offense
- Red Zone Plays
- State
- supported
- Value
- —
- Numerator
- 114
- Denominator
- —
- Description
- Pass or rush attempts at the opponent 20 or closer
- Red Zone Trips
- State
- supported
- Value
- —
- Numerator
- 37
- Denominator
- —
- Description
- Distinct 2025 REG drives with an offensive scrimmage play at the opponent 20 or closer
- Goal To Go Trips
- State
- supported
- Value
- 0.45945945945946
- Numerator
- 17
- Denominator
- 37
- Description
- Red-zone trips containing a source-flagged goal-to-go play
- Red Zone Td Conversion
- State
- supported
- Value
- 0.48648648648649
- Numerator
- 18
- Denominator
- 37
- Description
- Red-zone trips containing a passing or rushing touchdown
- Subject
- team_direction
- Boundary
- Prior observed team scoring-opportunity environment only; no 2026 role or touchdown probability is inferred.
- Provenance
- Dataset
- play_by_play_2025.csv.gz
- Provider
- nflverse
- Source Url
- https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2025.csv.gz
- Source Hash
- 2f135887790a013fd004e609e37096bb4816d5cc80b9f19122e1bad478961978
- Defense Abbr
- MIA
- Offense Abbr
- LV
- Defense Allowed
- Red Zone Plays
- State
- supported
- Value
- —
- Numerator
- 162
- Denominator
- —
- Description
- Opponent pass or rush attempts at the 20 or closer
- Red Zone Trips
- State
- supported
- Value
- —
- Numerator
- 62
- Denominator
- —
- Description
- Distinct opponent red-zone drives allowed
- Goal To Go Trips
- State
- supported
- Value
- 0.45161290322581
- Numerator
- 28
- Denominator
- 62
- Description
- Allowed red-zone trips containing a source-flagged goal-to-go play
- Red Zone Td Conversion
- State
- supported
- Value
- 0.62903225806452
- Numerator
- 39
- Denominator
- 62
- Description
- Allowed red-zone trips containing a passing or rushing touchdown
- Boundary
- Prior 2025 scoring-opportunity evidence is explanation only and does not change P5 or calculate touchdown probability.
- Individual Coverage
- unknown_team_environment_is_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Replacement Effect
- unknown_not_inferred_from_depth_or_availability
- Primary Context
- 0
- run
- Broader Context
- 0
- passing
- Individual Blocking Assignment
- unknown_team_run_environment_is_not_individual_assignment_evidence
- Boundary
- Team run environment does not infer carry share, target share, starter status, snap share, blocking assignment or replacement effect.
Game environment
Allegiant Stadium · Fixed Roof · Grass · weather Not Applicable
Indoor controlled environment; exterior weather is not gameplay weather.
Current touchdown outlook
32.3% anytime TD. Correlation is explanation only.
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 2
- Game Id
- 10543
- Player Id
- 1499
- Team Id
- 49
- Opponent Team Id
- 50
- Position Code
- RB
- Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Support State
- supported_anytime
- Projection State
- fallback
- Anytime Probability
- 0.3227000000
- Exactly One Probability
- 0.2508500000
- Two Plus Probability
- 0.0718500000
- Probability Json
- {"p_0": 0.6773, "p_1": 0.25085, "p_2_plus": 0.07185, "p_anytime": 0.3227, "multi_td_support": "supported"}
- Lineage Json
- {"p5_week_hash": "a2254ba8c0a3d262499ea5e2bb07d419b91aa632dd74faa1ca8d39f91285e627", "draw_contract": "P10 marginal summary only; cross-player draw indices are never aligned", "evidence_version": "nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1", "p10_content_hash": "73cdc83ef423190b0714cb0bcacf636cb3b7587e74476fe3f0fa8eaa81b99a4a", "p10_model_version": "nfl_p10b_rb_empirical_v3", "selection_version": "nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1", "availability_state": "unknown", "joint_model_version": "nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1", "market_is_model_input": false}
- Content Hash
- e63c397164a13a7cd19a341e52723645d6d24bedc1bde67dc78d0bab4dcb41fa
- Observed At
- 2026-09-14 07:30:21
- Generated At
- 2026-09-18 00:03:07
- Published At
- 2026-09-18 00:03:07
- Probability
- P 0
- 0.6773
- P 1
- 0.25085
- P 2 Plus
- 0.07185
- P Anytime
- 0.3227
- Multi Td Support
- supported
- Lineage
- P5 Week Hash
- a2254ba8c0a3d262499ea5e2bb07d419b91aa632dd74faa1ca8d39f91285e627
- Draw Contract
- P10 marginal summary only; cross-player draw indices are never aligned
- Evidence Version
- nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1
- P10 Content Hash
- 73cdc83ef423190b0714cb0bcacf636cb3b7587e74476fe3f0fa8eaa81b99a4a
- P10 Model Version
- nfl_p10b_rb_empirical_v3
- Selection Version
- nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1
- Availability State
- unknown
- Joint Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Market Is Model Input
Touchdown Connections
Ashton Jeanty + Mike Washington Jr. · Supported Empirical Dependence
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 1
- Game Id
- 10527
- Player A Id
- 1476
- Player B Id
- 1499
- Event A Kind
- scorer_td
- Event B Kind
- scorer_td
- Relationship Class
- same_team_rb_rb
- Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Support State
- supported_empirical_dependence
- Projection State
- fallback
- Player A Probability
- 0.3968000000
- Player B Probability
- 0.3245500000
- Both Probability
- 0.1113216603
- Either Probability
- 0.6100283397
- Exactly One Probability
- 0.4987066793
- Neither Probability
- 0.3899716603
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.3430031130
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.2805485392
- Naive Probability
- 0.1287814400
- Absolute Difference
- -0.0174597797
- Relative Difference
- -0.1355768321
- Dependence Direction
- negative
- Probability Json
- {"p_a": 0.3968, "p_b": 0.32455, "both": 0.11132166033755889, "a_only": 0.2854783396624411, "b_only": 0.21322833966244115, "either": 0.6100283396624411, "neither": 0.3899716603375588, "simulation": {"seed": 1064759281, "draw_count": 20000, "simulated_both": 0.1129, "absolute_error_from_analytic": 0.0015783396624411278}, "exactly_one": 0.4987066793248823, "naive_independence": 0.12878144, "absolute_difference": -0.017459779662441124, "relative_difference": -0.1355768320531369, "dependence_direction": "negative", "conditional_a_given_b": 0.34300311304131526, "conditional_b_given_a": 0.28054853915715444}
- Explanation Json
- {"short": "Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.", "football_structure": "Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.", "dependence_direction": "negative"}
- Lineage Json
- {"p10_a": {"content_hash": "4e5aa51bc28b9782334a49cf9f18ae48295c2103c2da5ba60755d6fe6b5629fd", "model_version": "nfl_p10b_rb_empirical_v3"}, "p10_b": {"content_hash": "d5bd44357ec4881843ac4d0483929aae6d50dd092f9f8c281e8719de170bb9cf", "model_version": "nfl_p10b_rb_empirical_v3"}, "odds_ratio": 0.7131725768321513, "pair_order": "ascending canonical player_id", "p5_week_hash": "a2254ba8c0a3d262499ea5e2bb07d419b91aa632dd74faa1ca8d39f91285e627", "evidence_version": "nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1", "selection_version": "nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1", "selected_candidate": "class_or_shrink_0", "joint_model_version": "nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1", "market_is_model_input": false, "cross_player_p10_draw_alignment": "prohibited"}
- Content Hash
- cdee751b328650935685e20a93075e2bf1a5880671427ed12595ab67d14a981f
- Observed At
- 2026-08-17 20:25:11
- Generated At
- 2026-09-10 11:37:58
- Published At
- 2026-09-10 11:37:58
- Player A Name
- Ashton Jeanty
- Player B Name
- Mike Washington Jr.
- Probability
- P A
- 0.3968
- P B
- 0.32455
- Both
- 0.11132166033756
- A Only
- 0.28547833966244
- B Only
- 0.21322833966244
- Either
- 0.61002833966244
- Neither
- 0.38997166033756
- Simulation
- Seed
- 1064759281
- Draw Count
- 20000
- Simulated Both
- 0.1129
- Absolute Error From Analytic
- 0.0015783396624411
- Exactly One
- 0.49870667932488
- Naive Independence
- 0.12878144
- Absolute Difference
- -0.017459779662441
- Relative Difference
- -0.13557683205314
- Dependence Direction
- negative
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.34300311304132
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.28054853915715
- Explanation
- Short
- Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.
- Football Structure
- Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.
- Dependence Direction
- negative
- Lineage
- P10 A
- Content Hash
- 4e5aa51bc28b9782334a49cf9f18ae48295c2103c2da5ba60755d6fe6b5629fd
- Model Version
- nfl_p10b_rb_empirical_v3
- P10 B
- Content Hash
- d5bd44357ec4881843ac4d0483929aae6d50dd092f9f8c281e8719de170bb9cf
- Model Version
- nfl_p10b_rb_empirical_v3
- Odds Ratio
- 0.71317257683215
- Pair Order
- ascending canonical player_id
- P5 Week Hash
- a2254ba8c0a3d262499ea5e2bb07d419b91aa632dd74faa1ca8d39f91285e627
- Evidence Version
- nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1
- Selection Version
- nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1
- Selected Candidate
- class_or_shrink_0
- Joint Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Market Is Model Input
- Cross Player P10 Draw Alignment
- prohibited
Ashton Jeanty + Mike Washington Jr. · Supported Empirical Dependence
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 2
- Game Id
- 10543
- Player A Id
- 1476
- Player B Id
- 1499
- Event A Kind
- scorer_td
- Event B Kind
- scorer_td
- Relationship Class
- same_team_rb_rb
- Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Support State
- supported_empirical_dependence
- Projection State
- fallback
- Player A Probability
- 0.3021500000
- Player B Probability
- 0.3227000000
- Both Probability
- 0.0823511741
- Either Probability
- 0.5424988259
- Exactly One Probability
- 0.4601476518
- Neither Probability
- 0.4575011741
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.2551942179
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.2725506341
- Naive Probability
- 0.0975038050
- Absolute Difference
- -0.0151526309
- Relative Difference
- -0.1554055342
- Dependence Direction
- negative
- Probability Json
- {"p_a": 0.30215, "p_b": 0.3227, "both": 0.08235117410112923, "a_only": 0.21979882589887073, "b_only": 0.24034882589887072, "either": 0.5424988258988708, "neither": 0.45750117410112934, "simulation": {"seed": 1066359281, "draw_count": 20000, "simulated_both": 0.0757, "absolute_error_from_analytic": 0.006651174101129226}, "exactly_one": 0.4601476517977415, "naive_independence": 0.097503805, "absolute_difference": -0.015152630898870756, "relative_difference": -0.1554055341621874, "dependence_direction": "negative", "conditional_a_given_b": 0.25519421785289503, "conditional_b_given_a": 0.2725506341258621}
- Explanation Json
- {"short": "Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.", "football_structure": "Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.", "dependence_direction": "negative"}
- Lineage Json
- {"p10_a": {"content_hash": "212b52612ea3ebb9b5bf93175629cbed177fa013d713587fc93b51252600d7f1", "model_version": "nfl_p10b_rb_signals_v1"}, "p10_b": {"content_hash": "73cdc83ef423190b0714cb0bcacf636cb3b7587e74476fe3f0fa8eaa81b99a4a", "model_version": "nfl_p10b_rb_empirical_v3"}, "odds_ratio": 0.7131725768321513, "pair_order": "ascending canonical player_id", "p5_week_hash": "d29eadad3b5c88c27d20fafd4be6fa1d5fbe0b44036b8dc0bd9f724b5849a09a", "evidence_version": "nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1", "selection_version": "nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1", "selected_candidate": "class_or_shrink_0", "joint_model_version": "nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1", "market_is_model_input": false, "cross_player_p10_draw_alignment": "prohibited"}
- Content Hash
- 18ae1f0e21a634098462a8c2bac6669f2febd845506bceca22f62d382513545f
- Observed At
- 2026-09-14 07:30:21
- Generated At
- 2026-09-18 00:03:07
- Published At
- 2026-09-18 00:03:07
- Player A Name
- Ashton Jeanty
- Player B Name
- Mike Washington Jr.
- Probability
- P A
- 0.30215
- P B
- 0.3227
- Both
- 0.082351174101129
- A Only
- 0.21979882589887
- B Only
- 0.24034882589887
- Either
- 0.54249882589887
- Neither
- 0.45750117410113
- Simulation
- Seed
- 1066359281
- Draw Count
- 20000
- Simulated Both
- 0.0757
- Absolute Error From Analytic
- 0.0066511741011292
- Exactly One
- 0.46014765179774
- Naive Independence
- 0.097503805
- Absolute Difference
- -0.015152630898871
- Relative Difference
- -0.15540553416219
- Dependence Direction
- negative
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.2551942178529
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.27255063412586
- Explanation
- Short
- Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.
- Football Structure
- Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.
- Dependence Direction
- negative
- Lineage
- P10 A
- Content Hash
- 212b52612ea3ebb9b5bf93175629cbed177fa013d713587fc93b51252600d7f1
- Model Version
- nfl_p10b_rb_signals_v1
- P10 B
- Content Hash
- 73cdc83ef423190b0714cb0bcacf636cb3b7587e74476fe3f0fa8eaa81b99a4a
- Model Version
- nfl_p10b_rb_empirical_v3
- Odds Ratio
- 0.71317257683215
- Pair Order
- ascending canonical player_id
- P5 Week Hash
- d29eadad3b5c88c27d20fafd4be6fa1d5fbe0b44036b8dc0bd9f724b5849a09a
- Evidence Version
- nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1
- Selection Version
- nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1
- Selected Candidate
- class_or_shrink_0
- Joint Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Market Is Model Input
- Cross Player P10 Draw Alignment
- prohibited
Brock Bowers + Mike Washington Jr. · Supported Empirical Dependence
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 1
- Game Id
- 10527
- Player A Id
- 1461
- Player B Id
- 1499
- Event A Kind
- scorer_td
- Event B Kind
- scorer_td
- Relationship Class
- same_team_rb_te
- Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Support State
- supported_empirical_dependence
- Projection State
- fallback
- Player A Probability
- 0.2778500000
- Player B Probability
- 0.3245500000
- Both Probability
- 0.0843612932
- Either Probability
- 0.5180387068
- Exactly One Probability
- 0.4336774137
- Neither Probability
- 0.4819612932
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.2599331171
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.3036217137
- Naive Probability
- 0.0901762175
- Absolute Difference
- -0.0058149243
- Relative Difference
- -0.0644840125
- Dependence Direction
- negative
- Probability Json
- {"p_a": 0.27785, "p_b": 0.32455, "both": 0.08436129316023973, "a_only": 0.19348870683976027, "b_only": 0.2401887068397603, "either": 0.5180387068397603, "neither": 0.48196129316023967, "simulation": {"seed": 1064758816, "draw_count": 20000, "simulated_both": 0.0831, "absolute_error_from_analytic": 0.0012612931602397348}, "exactly_one": 0.43367741367952056, "naive_independence": 0.0901762175, "absolute_difference": -0.0058149243397602746, "relative_difference": -0.06448401253645701, "dependence_direction": "negative", "conditional_a_given_b": 0.25993311711674544, "conditional_b_given_a": 0.3036217137312929}
- Explanation Json
- {"short": "The back and tight end share team scoring states while competing for a finite touchdown allocation.", "football_structure": "The back and tight end share team scoring states while competing for a finite touchdown allocation.", "dependence_direction": "negative"}
- Lineage Json
- {"p10_a": {"content_hash": "3d94e2b450bd004109663554c529212e946ba4cbae7193904f018471e28b40ea", "model_version": "nfl_p10c_wrte_empirical_v1"}, "p10_b": {"content_hash": "d5bd44357ec4881843ac4d0483929aae6d50dd092f9f8c281e8719de170bb9cf", "model_version": "nfl_p10b_rb_empirical_v3"}, "odds_ratio": 0.874877370604777, "pair_order": "ascending canonical player_id", "p5_week_hash": "a2254ba8c0a3d262499ea5e2bb07d419b91aa632dd74faa1ca8d39f91285e627", "evidence_version": "nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1", "selection_version": "nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1", "selected_candidate": "class_or_shrink_0", "joint_model_version": "nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1", "market_is_model_input": false, "cross_player_p10_draw_alignment": "prohibited"}
- Content Hash
- c03e0cf7e5e2cc05b58fbc7bccf7fdb888d280d89b6b44ba5123c38264649119
- Observed At
- 2026-09-01 23:59:00
- Generated At
- 2026-09-10 11:37:58
- Published At
- 2026-09-10 11:37:58
- Player A Name
- Brock Bowers
- Player B Name
- Mike Washington Jr.
- Probability
- P A
- 0.27785
- P B
- 0.32455
- Both
- 0.08436129316024
- A Only
- 0.19348870683976
- B Only
- 0.24018870683976
- Either
- 0.51803870683976
- Neither
- 0.48196129316024
- Simulation
- Seed
- 1064758816
- Draw Count
- 20000
- Simulated Both
- 0.0831
- Absolute Error From Analytic
- 0.0012612931602397
- Exactly One
- 0.43367741367952
- Naive Independence
- 0.0901762175
- Absolute Difference
- -0.0058149243397603
- Relative Difference
- -0.064484012536457
- Dependence Direction
- negative
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.25993311711675
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.30362171373129
- Explanation
- Short
- The back and tight end share team scoring states while competing for a finite touchdown allocation.
- Football Structure
- The back and tight end share team scoring states while competing for a finite touchdown allocation.
- Dependence Direction
- negative
- Lineage
- P10 A
- Content Hash
- 3d94e2b450bd004109663554c529212e946ba4cbae7193904f018471e28b40ea
- Model Version
- nfl_p10c_wrte_empirical_v1
- P10 B
- Content Hash
- d5bd44357ec4881843ac4d0483929aae6d50dd092f9f8c281e8719de170bb9cf
- Model Version
- nfl_p10b_rb_empirical_v3
- Odds Ratio
- 0.87487737060478
- Pair Order
- ascending canonical player_id
- P5 Week Hash
- a2254ba8c0a3d262499ea5e2bb07d419b91aa632dd74faa1ca8d39f91285e627
- Evidence Version
- nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1
- Selection Version
- nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1
- Selected Candidate
- class_or_shrink_0
- Joint Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Market Is Model Input
- Cross Player P10 Draw Alignment
- prohibited
Brock Bowers + Mike Washington Jr. · Supported Empirical Dependence
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 2
- Game Id
- 10543
- Player A Id
- 1461
- Player B Id
- 1499
- Event A Kind
- scorer_td
- Event B Kind
- scorer_td
- Relationship Class
- same_team_rb_te
- Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Support State
- supported_empirical_dependence
- Projection State
- fallback
- Player A Probability
- 0.2769500000
- Player B Probability
- 0.3227000000
- Both Probability
- 0.0835866239
- Either Probability
- 0.5160633761
- Exactly One Probability
- 0.4324767521
- Neither Probability
- 0.4839366239
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.2590226958
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.3018112436
- Naive Probability
- 0.0893717650
- Absolute Difference
- -0.0057851411
- Relative Difference
- -0.0647311942
- Dependence Direction
- negative
- Probability Json
- {"p_a": 0.27695, "p_b": 0.3227, "both": 0.08358662392786448, "a_only": 0.1933633760721355, "b_only": 0.2391133760721355, "either": 0.5160633760721355, "neither": 0.4839366239278646, "simulation": {"seed": 1066358816, "draw_count": 20000, "simulated_both": 0.0886, "absolute_error_from_analytic": 0.00501337607213552}, "exactly_one": 0.432476752144271, "naive_independence": 0.08937176499999999, "absolute_difference": -0.005785141072135513, "relative_difference": -0.06473119415438996, "dependence_direction": "negative", "conditional_a_given_b": 0.25902269577894166, "conditional_b_given_a": 0.30181124364637835}
- Explanation Json
- {"short": "The back and tight end share team scoring states while competing for a finite touchdown allocation.", "football_structure": "The back and tight end share team scoring states while competing for a finite touchdown allocation.", "dependence_direction": "negative"}
- Lineage Json
- {"p10_a": {"content_hash": "a3a082dcbafcaea4cb70c060c0cdac0bc7fd92cb9da6b35e72cd39c095e3b1ac", "model_version": "nfl_p10c_wrte_signals_v1"}, "p10_b": {"content_hash": "73cdc83ef423190b0714cb0bcacf636cb3b7587e74476fe3f0fa8eaa81b99a4a", "model_version": "nfl_p10b_rb_empirical_v3"}, "odds_ratio": 0.874877370604777, "pair_order": "ascending canonical player_id", "p5_week_hash": "d29eadad3b5c88c27d20fafd4be6fa1d5fbe0b44036b8dc0bd9f724b5849a09a", "evidence_version": "nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1", "selection_version": "nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1", "selected_candidate": "class_or_shrink_0", "joint_model_version": "nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1", "market_is_model_input": false, "cross_player_p10_draw_alignment": "prohibited"}
- Content Hash
- 9828115b3f6b4ab3cd205d4cc372f9412af2931b216eeaf0c7b6380791fe54ff
- Observed At
- 2026-09-17 23:48:31
- Generated At
- 2026-09-18 00:03:07
- Published At
- 2026-09-18 00:03:07
- Player A Name
- Brock Bowers
- Player B Name
- Mike Washington Jr.
- Probability
- P A
- 0.27695
- P B
- 0.3227
- Both
- 0.083586623927864
- A Only
- 0.19336337607214
- B Only
- 0.23911337607214
- Either
- 0.51606337607214
- Neither
- 0.48393662392786
- Simulation
- Seed
- 1066358816
- Draw Count
- 20000
- Simulated Both
- 0.0886
- Absolute Error From Analytic
- 0.0050133760721355
- Exactly One
- 0.43247675214427
- Naive Independence
- 0.089371765
- Absolute Difference
- -0.0057851410721355
- Relative Difference
- -0.06473119415439
- Dependence Direction
- negative
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.25902269577894
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.30181124364638
- Explanation
- Short
- The back and tight end share team scoring states while competing for a finite touchdown allocation.
- Football Structure
- The back and tight end share team scoring states while competing for a finite touchdown allocation.
- Dependence Direction
- negative
- Lineage
- P10 A
- Content Hash
- a3a082dcbafcaea4cb70c060c0cdac0bc7fd92cb9da6b35e72cd39c095e3b1ac
- Model Version
- nfl_p10c_wrte_signals_v1
- P10 B
- Content Hash
- 73cdc83ef423190b0714cb0bcacf636cb3b7587e74476fe3f0fa8eaa81b99a4a
- Model Version
- nfl_p10b_rb_empirical_v3
- Odds Ratio
- 0.87487737060478
- Pair Order
- ascending canonical player_id
- P5 Week Hash
- d29eadad3b5c88c27d20fafd4be6fa1d5fbe0b44036b8dc0bd9f724b5849a09a
- Evidence Version
- nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1
- Selection Version
- nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1
- Selected Candidate
- class_or_shrink_0
- Joint Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Market Is Model Input
- Cross Player P10 Draw Alignment
- prohibited
Jalen Nailor + Mike Washington Jr. · Supported Empirical Dependence
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 2
- Game Id
- 10543
- Player A Id
- 1486
- Player B Id
- 1499
- Event A Kind
- scorer_td
- Event B Kind
- scorer_td
- Relationship Class
- same_team_rb_wr
- Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Support State
- supported_empirical_dependence
- Projection State
- fallback
- Player A Probability
- 0.2488000000
- Player B Probability
- 0.3227000000
- Both Probability
- 0.0748640177
- Either Probability
- 0.4966359823
- Exactly One Probability
- 0.4217719646
- Neither Probability
- 0.5033640177
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.2319926175
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.3009003926
- Naive Probability
- 0.0802877600
- Absolute Difference
- -0.0054237423
- Relative Difference
- -0.0675537881
- Dependence Direction
- negative
- Probability Json
- {"p_a": 0.2488, "p_b": 0.3227, "both": 0.07486401767761602, "a_only": 0.17393598232238397, "b_only": 0.24783598232238396, "either": 0.49663598232238393, "neither": 0.503364017677616, "simulation": {"seed": 1066359591, "draw_count": 20000, "simulated_both": 0.0713, "absolute_error_from_analytic": 0.0035640176776160215}, "exactly_one": 0.421771964644768, "naive_independence": 0.08028776, "absolute_difference": -0.005423742322383976, "relative_difference": -0.06755378805416885, "dependence_direction": "negative", "conditional_a_given_b": 0.2319926175321228, "conditional_b_given_a": 0.30090039259491974}
- Explanation Json
- {"short": "The back and receiver share team scoring states while competing for a finite touchdown allocation.", "football_structure": "The back and receiver share team scoring states while competing for a finite touchdown allocation.", "dependence_direction": "negative"}
- Lineage Json
- {"p10_a": {"content_hash": "af2293242b6ea03755575a7733756c6a277ebb6063c1847bff776cbe72933c4d", "model_version": "nfl_p10c_wrte_signals_v1"}, "p10_b": {"content_hash": "73cdc83ef423190b0714cb0bcacf636cb3b7587e74476fe3f0fa8eaa81b99a4a", "model_version": "nfl_p10b_rb_empirical_v3"}, "odds_ratio": 0.8741812825015741, "pair_order": "ascending canonical player_id", "p5_week_hash": "d29eadad3b5c88c27d20fafd4be6fa1d5fbe0b44036b8dc0bd9f724b5849a09a", "evidence_version": "nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1", "selection_version": "nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1", "selected_candidate": "class_or_shrink_0", "joint_model_version": "nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1", "market_is_model_input": false, "cross_player_p10_draw_alignment": "prohibited"}
- Content Hash
- 955baeb428864259f659066d540a04825c65e86c4e15cb6c22ce760c25587ef7
- Observed At
- 2026-09-17 23:48:31
- Generated At
- 2026-09-18 00:03:07
- Published At
- 2026-09-18 00:03:07
- Player A Name
- Jalen Nailor
- Player B Name
- Mike Washington Jr.
- Probability
- P A
- 0.2488
- P B
- 0.3227
- Both
- 0.074864017677616
- A Only
- 0.17393598232238
- B Only
- 0.24783598232238
- Either
- 0.49663598232238
- Neither
- 0.50336401767762
- Simulation
- Seed
- 1066359591
- Draw Count
- 20000
- Simulated Both
- 0.0713
- Absolute Error From Analytic
- 0.003564017677616
- Exactly One
- 0.42177196464477
- Naive Independence
- 0.08028776
- Absolute Difference
- -0.005423742322384
- Relative Difference
- -0.067553788054169
- Dependence Direction
- negative
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.23199261753212
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.30090039259492
- Explanation
- Short
- The back and receiver share team scoring states while competing for a finite touchdown allocation.
- Football Structure
- The back and receiver share team scoring states while competing for a finite touchdown allocation.
- Dependence Direction
- negative
- Lineage
- P10 A
- Content Hash
- af2293242b6ea03755575a7733756c6a277ebb6063c1847bff776cbe72933c4d
- Model Version
- nfl_p10c_wrte_signals_v1
- P10 B
- Content Hash
- 73cdc83ef423190b0714cb0bcacf636cb3b7587e74476fe3f0fa8eaa81b99a4a
- Model Version
- nfl_p10b_rb_empirical_v3
- Odds Ratio
- 0.87418128250157
- Pair Order
- ascending canonical player_id
- P5 Week Hash
- d29eadad3b5c88c27d20fafd4be6fa1d5fbe0b44036b8dc0bd9f724b5849a09a
- Evidence Version
- nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1
- Selection Version
- nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1
- Selected Candidate
- class_or_shrink_0
- Joint Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Market Is Model Input
- Cross Player P10 Draw Alignment
- prohibited
Jalen Nailor + Mike Washington Jr. · Supported Empirical Dependence
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 1
- Game Id
- 10527
- Player A Id
- 1486
- Player B Id
- 1499
- Event A Kind
- scorer_td
- Event B Kind
- scorer_td
- Relationship Class
- same_team_rb_wr
- Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Support State
- supported_empirical_dependence
- Projection State
- fallback
- Player A Probability
- 0.2145000000
- Player B Probability
- 0.3245500000
- Both Probability
- 0.0647194154
- Either Probability
- 0.4743305846
- Exactly One Probability
- 0.4096111692
- Neither Probability
- 0.5256694154
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.1994127727
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.3017222163
- Naive Probability
- 0.0696159750
- Absolute Difference
- -0.0048965596
- Relative Difference
- -0.0703367238
- Dependence Direction
- approximately_neutral
- Probability Json
- {"p_a": 0.2145, "p_b": 0.32455, "both": 0.06471941539107659, "a_only": 0.1497805846089234, "b_only": 0.2598305846089234, "either": 0.4743305846089234, "neither": 0.5256694153910766, "simulation": {"seed": 1064759591, "draw_count": 20000, "simulated_both": 0.0616, "absolute_error_from_analytic": 0.003119415391076588}, "exactly_one": 0.4096111692178468, "naive_independence": 0.069615975, "absolute_difference": -0.0048965596089234065, "relative_difference": -0.0703367238471257, "dependence_direction": "approximately_neutral", "conditional_a_given_b": 0.19941277273479152, "conditional_b_given_a": 0.30172221627541534}
- Explanation Json
- {"short": "The back and receiver share team scoring states while competing for a finite touchdown allocation.", "football_structure": "The back and receiver share team scoring states while competing for a finite touchdown allocation.", "dependence_direction": "approximately_neutral"}
- Lineage Json
- {"p10_a": {"content_hash": "4bada618771c10a95e5fdb1b17ad8f4fa13c021fbb82903e8f0f7cdb93823949", "model_version": "nfl_p10c_wrte_empirical_v1"}, "p10_b": {"content_hash": "d5bd44357ec4881843ac4d0483929aae6d50dd092f9f8c281e8719de170bb9cf", "model_version": "nfl_p10b_rb_empirical_v3"}, "odds_ratio": 0.8741812825015741, "pair_order": "ascending canonical player_id", "p5_week_hash": "a2254ba8c0a3d262499ea5e2bb07d419b91aa632dd74faa1ca8d39f91285e627", "evidence_version": "nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1", "selection_version": "nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1", "selected_candidate": "class_or_shrink_0", "joint_model_version": "nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1", "market_is_model_input": false, "cross_player_p10_draw_alignment": "prohibited"}
- Content Hash
- e212f2d4bd978addade1b43cd755b67e59934cab4878df9aeebde6c776ba3033
- Observed At
- 2026-09-01 23:59:00
- Generated At
- 2026-09-10 11:37:58
- Published At
- 2026-09-10 11:37:58
- Player A Name
- Jalen Nailor
- Player B Name
- Mike Washington Jr.
- Probability
- P A
- 0.2145
- P B
- 0.32455
- Both
- 0.064719415391077
- A Only
- 0.14978058460892
- B Only
- 0.25983058460892
- Either
- 0.47433058460892
- Neither
- 0.52566941539108
- Simulation
- Seed
- 1064759591
- Draw Count
- 20000
- Simulated Both
- 0.0616
- Absolute Error From Analytic
- 0.0031194153910766
- Exactly One
- 0.40961116921785
- Naive Independence
- 0.069615975
- Absolute Difference
- -0.0048965596089234
- Relative Difference
- -0.070336723847126
- Dependence Direction
- approximately_neutral
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.19941277273479
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.30172221627542
- Explanation
- Short
- The back and receiver share team scoring states while competing for a finite touchdown allocation.
- Football Structure
- The back and receiver share team scoring states while competing for a finite touchdown allocation.
- Dependence Direction
- approximately_neutral
- Lineage
- P10 A
- Content Hash
- 4bada618771c10a95e5fdb1b17ad8f4fa13c021fbb82903e8f0f7cdb93823949
- Model Version
- nfl_p10c_wrte_empirical_v1
- P10 B
- Content Hash
- d5bd44357ec4881843ac4d0483929aae6d50dd092f9f8c281e8719de170bb9cf
- Model Version
- nfl_p10b_rb_empirical_v3
- Odds Ratio
- 0.87418128250157
- Pair Order
- ascending canonical player_id
- P5 Week Hash
- a2254ba8c0a3d262499ea5e2bb07d419b91aa632dd74faa1ca8d39f91285e627
- Evidence Version
- nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1
- Selection Version
- nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1
- Selected Candidate
- class_or_shrink_0
- Joint Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Market Is Model Input
- Cross Player P10 Draw Alignment
- prohibited
Season
Regular season and postseason stay separate; only supported values are shown.
Season production unavailable.
Games
Official game evidence
Published provider box-score evidence by category; it does not imply a start or snap share.
2026 regular · Week 1 · rushing · provider espn
LV vs MIA · CAR 7 · YDS 41 · AVG 5.9 · TD 0 · LONG 18
- Labels
- 0
- CAR
- 1
- YDS
- 2
- AVG
- 3
- TD
- 4
- LONG
- Values
- 0
- 7
- 1
- 41
- 2
- 5.9
- 3
- 0
- 4
- 18
2026 preseason · Week 4 · receiving · provider espn
LV vs SF · REC 0 · YDS 0 · AVG 0.0 · TD 0 · LONG 0 · TGTS 1
- Labels
- 0
- REC
- 1
- YDS
- 2
- AVG
- 3
- TD
- 4
- LONG
- 5
- TGTS
- Values
- 0
- 0
- 1
- 0
- 2
- 0.0
- 3
- 0
- 4
- 0
- 5
- 1
2026 preseason · Week 4 · rushing · provider espn
LV vs SF · CAR 8 · YDS 49 · AVG 6.1 · TD 0 · LONG 13
- Labels
- 0
- CAR
- 1
- YDS
- 2
- AVG
- 3
- TD
- 4
- LONG
- Values
- 0
- 8
- 1
- 49
- 2
- 6.1
- 3
- 0
- 4
- 13
2026 preseason · Week 3 · receiving · provider espn
LV vs HOU · REC 2 · YDS 18 · AVG 9.0 · TD 0 · LONG 9 · TGTS 3
- Labels
- 0
- REC
- 1
- YDS
- 2
- AVG
- 3
- TD
- 4
- LONG
- 5
- TGTS
- Values
- 0
- 2
- 1
- 18
- 2
- 9.0
- 3
- 0
- 4
- 9
- 5
- 3
2026 preseason · Week 3 · rushing · provider espn
LV vs HOU · CAR 9 · YDS 56 · AVG 6.2 · TD 0 · LONG 33
- Labels
- 0
- CAR
- 1
- YDS
- 2
- AVG
- 3
- TD
- 4
- LONG
- Values
- 0
- 9
- 1
- 56
- 2
- 6.2
- 3
- 0
- 4
- 33
2026 preseason · Week 2 · kickReturns · provider espn
LV vs ARI · NO 1 · YDS 22 · AVG 22.0 · LONG 22 · TD 0
- Labels
- 0
- NO
- 1
- YDS
- 2
- AVG
- 3
- LONG
- 4
- TD
- Values
- 0
- 1
- 1
- 22
- 2
- 22.0
- 3
- 22
- 4
- 0
2026 preseason · Week 2 · receiving · provider espn
LV vs ARI · REC 0 · YDS 0 · AVG 0.0 · TD 0 · LONG 0 · TGTS 1
- Labels
- 0
- REC
- 1
- YDS
- 2
- AVG
- 3
- TD
- 4
- LONG
- 5
- TGTS
- Values
- 0
- 0
- 1
- 0
- 2
- 0.0
- 3
- 0
- 4
- 0
- 5
- 1
2026 preseason · Week 2 · rushing · provider espn
LV vs ARI · CAR 6 · YDS 63 · AVG 10.5 · TD 0 · LONG 53
- Labels
- 0
- CAR
- 1
- YDS
- 2
- AVG
- 3
- TD
- 4
- LONG
- Values
- 0
- 6
- 1
- 63
- 2
- 10.5
- 3
- 0
- 4
- 53
Weekly history
2026 REG · Week 1 · LV vs MIA
Rush Att: 7 · Targets: 0 · Receptions: 0
- Carries
- 7
- Game Id
- 10527
- Targets
- 0
- Attempts
- 0
- Receptions
- 0
- Completions
- 0
- Passing Tds
- 0
- Rushing Tds
- 0
- Fumbles Lost
- 0
- Interceptions
- 0
- Passing Yards
- 0
- Receiving Tds
- 0
- Rushing Yards
- 41
- Receiving Yards
- 0
Fantasy outlook
Forward systems
Floor and ceiling are projected distribution percentiles; fumbles lost and two-point conversions remain unsupported.
Standard · 8.6 points · 2.4 floor · 7.3 median · 16.8 ceiling
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 1
- Game Id
- 10527
- Player Id
- 1499
- Team Id
- 49
- Opponent Team Id
- 52
- Position Code
- RB
- Scoring System Code
- standard
- Model Version
- nfl_p11a_forward_fantasy_v1
- Scoring Version
- pardonme_fantasy_v1
- Projection State
- fallback
- Position Rank
- 28
- Position Population
- 60
- Projected Points
- 8.5826
- Median Points
- 7.3000
- Floor Points
- 2.4000
- Ceiling Points
- 16.8000
- Projection Json
- {"state": "fallback", "summary": {"mean": 8.5826, "floor": 2.4, "median": 7.3, "ceiling": 16.8, "draw_count": 20000, "interval_80": {"lower": 2.4, "upper": 16.8}, "floor_definition": "10th percentile", "ceiling_definition": "90th percentile", "threshold_probabilities": {"8": 0.45855, "12": 0.24205, "18": 0.07995}}, "completeness": "modeled_components_only", "position_comparison": {"rank": 28, "percentile": 54.166666666666664, "population": 60, "gap_to_position_median": 0.16943999999999804}, "unsupported_components": ["two_point_conversions", "fumbles_lost"]}
- Explanation Json
- {"short": "10.7 carries and 2.6 targets; 32% chance of 1+ relevant TD; thin-history fallback widens uncertainty; availability unknown.", "drivers": ["10.7 carries and 2.6 targets", "32% chance of 1+ relevant TD", "thin-history fallback widens uncertainty", "availability unknown"], "causal_boundary": "P10 football outcomes determine the projection; role, matchup, P9/P9I and history are explanation/context only.", "historical_2025": null}
- Lineage Json
- {"model_version": "nfl_p11a_forward_fantasy_v1", "scoring_version": "pardonme_fantasy_v1", "p10_content_hash": "d5bd44357ec4881843ac4d0483929aae6d50dd092f9f8c281e8719de170bb9cf", "p10_model_version": "nfl_p10b_rb_empirical_v3", "draw_transformation": "exact deterministic P10 draws scored component-wise", "p10_reproducibility": {"seed": 105270121, "method": "empirical total opportunities centered on read-only P5; beta-binomial carry/target, catch and TD allocation; conditional empirical yards-per-carry and yards-per-reception", "simulations": 20000, "source_hash": "d3420a1fc87b5871c17ce5e6d7cb4450f6d1c71333ce5ed4ebf58b1daf037b26", "interval_level": 0.8, "frozen_parameters": {"era_seasons": 3, "rush_td_prior_carries": 500, "catch_rate_prior_targets": 50, "opportunity_mixture_games": 4, "receiving_td_prior_targets": 100, "rush_empirical_blend_weight": 0.5, "rush_efficiency_prior_carries": 200, "carry_share_prior_opportunities": 50, "receiving_empirical_blend_weight": 0.25, "receiving_efficiency_prior_receptions": 100}, "parameter_training_cutoff": 2023}, "source_manifest_hash": "10ac7fa420dc9b78f3207e963e2e1c94dc76cca9a7ef347926f7c5b2b73e3ae2", "unsupported_components": ["two_point_conversions", "fumbles_lost"]}
- Content Hash
- 3725cb2a37106e0ade73ed50476923d39f992ae0eba006521b320de715b68c9f
- Observed At
- 2026-08-17 20:25:11
- Generated At
- 2026-08-17 20:25:11
- Published At
- 2026-09-10 11:41:10
- Projection
- State
- fallback
- Summary
- Mean
- 8.5826
- Floor
- 2.4
- Median
- 7.3
- Ceiling
- 16.8
- Draw Count
- 20000
- Interval 80
- Lower
- 2.4
- Upper
- 16.8
- Floor Definition
- 10th percentile
- Ceiling Definition
- 90th percentile
- Threshold Probabilities
- 8
- 0.45855
- 12
- 0.24205
- 18
- 0.07995
- Completeness
- modeled_components_only
- Position Comparison
- Rank
- 28
- Percentile
- 54.166666666667
- Population
- 60
- Gap To Position Median
- 0.16944
- Unsupported Components
- 0
- two_point_conversions
- 1
- fumbles_lost
- Explanation
- Short
- 10.7 carries and 2.6 targets; 32% chance of 1+ relevant TD; thin-history fallback widens uncertainty; availability unknown.
- Drivers
- 0
- 10.7 carries and 2.6 targets
- 1
- 32% chance of 1+ relevant TD
- 2
- thin-history fallback widens uncertainty
- 3
- availability unknown
- Causal Boundary
- P10 football outcomes determine the projection; role, matchup, P9/P9I and history are explanation/context only.
- Historical 2025
- —
- Lineage
- Model Version
- nfl_p11a_forward_fantasy_v1
- Scoring Version
- pardonme_fantasy_v1
- P10 Content Hash
- d5bd44357ec4881843ac4d0483929aae6d50dd092f9f8c281e8719de170bb9cf
- P10 Model Version
- nfl_p10b_rb_empirical_v3
- Draw Transformation
- exact deterministic P10 draws scored component-wise
- P10 Reproducibility
- Seed
- 105270121
- Method
- empirical total opportunities centered on read-only P5; beta-binomial carry/target, catch and TD allocation; conditional empirical yards-per-carry and yards-per-reception
- Simulations
- 20000
- Source Hash
- d3420a1fc87b5871c17ce5e6d7cb4450f6d1c71333ce5ed4ebf58b1daf037b26
- Interval Level
- 0.8
- Frozen Parameters
- Era Seasons
- 3
- Rush Td Prior Carries
- 500
- Catch Rate Prior Targets
- 50
- Opportunity Mixture Games
- 4
- Receiving Td Prior Targets
- 100
- Rush Empirical Blend Weight
- 0.5
- Rush Efficiency Prior Carries
- 200
- Carry Share Prior Opportunities
- 50
- Receiving Empirical Blend Weight
- 0.25
- Receiving Efficiency Prior Receptions
- 100
- Parameter Training Cutoff
- 2023
- Source Manifest Hash
- 10ac7fa420dc9b78f3207e963e2e1c94dc76cca9a7ef347926f7c5b2b73e3ae2
- Unsupported Components
- 0
- two_point_conversions
- 1
- fumbles_lost
Half-PPR · 9.6 points · 2.7 floor · 8.3 median · 18.4 ceiling
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 1
- Game Id
- 10527
- Player Id
- 1499
- Team Id
- 49
- Opponent Team Id
- 52
- Position Code
- RB
- Scoring System Code
- half_ppr
- Model Version
- nfl_p11a_forward_fantasy_v1
- Scoring Version
- pardonme_fantasy_v1
- Projection State
- fallback
- Position Rank
- 28
- Position Population
- 60
- Projected Points
- 9.6016
- Median Points
- 8.3000
- Floor Points
- 2.7000
- Ceiling Points
- 18.4000
- Projection Json
- {"state": "fallback", "summary": {"mean": 9.6016, "floor": 2.7, "median": 8.3, "ceiling": 18.4, "draw_count": 20000, "interval_80": {"lower": 2.7, "upper": 18.4}, "floor_definition": "10th percentile", "ceiling_definition": "90th percentile", "threshold_probabilities": {"8": 0.52505, "12": 0.2987, "18": 0.1088}}, "completeness": "modeled_components_only", "position_comparison": {"rank": 28, "percentile": 54.166666666666664, "population": 60, "gap_to_position_median": 0.3008149999999983}, "unsupported_components": ["two_point_conversions", "fumbles_lost"]}
- Explanation Json
- {"short": "10.7 carries and 2.6 targets; 32% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; thin-history fallback widens uncertainty; availability unknown.", "drivers": ["10.7 carries and 2.6 targets", "32% chance of 1+ relevant TD", "receptions add 0.5 points each", "thin-history fallback widens uncertainty", "availability unknown"], "causal_boundary": "P10 football outcomes determine the projection; role, matchup, P9/P9I and history are explanation/context only.", "historical_2025": null}
- Lineage Json
- {"model_version": "nfl_p11a_forward_fantasy_v1", "scoring_version": "pardonme_fantasy_v1", "p10_content_hash": "d5bd44357ec4881843ac4d0483929aae6d50dd092f9f8c281e8719de170bb9cf", "p10_model_version": "nfl_p10b_rb_empirical_v3", "draw_transformation": "exact deterministic P10 draws scored component-wise", "p10_reproducibility": {"seed": 105270121, "method": "empirical total opportunities centered on read-only P5; beta-binomial carry/target, catch and TD allocation; conditional empirical yards-per-carry and yards-per-reception", "simulations": 20000, "source_hash": "d3420a1fc87b5871c17ce5e6d7cb4450f6d1c71333ce5ed4ebf58b1daf037b26", "interval_level": 0.8, "frozen_parameters": {"era_seasons": 3, "rush_td_prior_carries": 500, "catch_rate_prior_targets": 50, "opportunity_mixture_games": 4, "receiving_td_prior_targets": 100, "rush_empirical_blend_weight": 0.5, "rush_efficiency_prior_carries": 200, "carry_share_prior_opportunities": 50, "receiving_empirical_blend_weight": 0.25, "receiving_efficiency_prior_receptions": 100}, "parameter_training_cutoff": 2023}, "source_manifest_hash": "125c9078443eff5bc7c358cf568e4fafc6675fbbde4332f182032ea6bb1d1272", "unsupported_components": ["two_point_conversions", "fumbles_lost"]}
- Content Hash
- a8edf13b50db364165002a6f40fb094048ae25c4113d3822a013904394a96eae
- Observed At
- 2026-08-17 20:25:11
- Generated At
- 2026-08-17 20:25:11
- Published At
- 2026-09-10 11:41:10
- Projection
- State
- fallback
- Summary
- Mean
- 9.6016
- Floor
- 2.7
- Median
- 8.3
- Ceiling
- 18.4
- Draw Count
- 20000
- Interval 80
- Lower
- 2.7
- Upper
- 18.4
- Floor Definition
- 10th percentile
- Ceiling Definition
- 90th percentile
- Threshold Probabilities
- 8
- 0.52505
- 12
- 0.2987
- 18
- 0.1088
- Completeness
- modeled_components_only
- Position Comparison
- Rank
- 28
- Percentile
- 54.166666666667
- Population
- 60
- Gap To Position Median
- 0.300815
- Unsupported Components
- 0
- two_point_conversions
- 1
- fumbles_lost
- Explanation
- Short
- 10.7 carries and 2.6 targets; 32% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; thin-history fallback widens uncertainty; availability unknown.
- Drivers
- 0
- 10.7 carries and 2.6 targets
- 1
- 32% chance of 1+ relevant TD
- 2
- receptions add 0.5 points each
- 3
- thin-history fallback widens uncertainty
- 4
- availability unknown
- Causal Boundary
- P10 football outcomes determine the projection; role, matchup, P9/P9I and history are explanation/context only.
- Historical 2025
- —
- Lineage
- Model Version
- nfl_p11a_forward_fantasy_v1
- Scoring Version
- pardonme_fantasy_v1
- P10 Content Hash
- d5bd44357ec4881843ac4d0483929aae6d50dd092f9f8c281e8719de170bb9cf
- P10 Model Version
- nfl_p10b_rb_empirical_v3
- Draw Transformation
- exact deterministic P10 draws scored component-wise
- P10 Reproducibility
- Seed
- 105270121
- Method
- empirical total opportunities centered on read-only P5; beta-binomial carry/target, catch and TD allocation; conditional empirical yards-per-carry and yards-per-reception
- Simulations
- 20000
- Source Hash
- d3420a1fc87b5871c17ce5e6d7cb4450f6d1c71333ce5ed4ebf58b1daf037b26
- Interval Level
- 0.8
- Frozen Parameters
- Era Seasons
- 3
- Rush Td Prior Carries
- 500
- Catch Rate Prior Targets
- 50
- Opportunity Mixture Games
- 4
- Receiving Td Prior Targets
- 100
- Rush Empirical Blend Weight
- 0.5
- Rush Efficiency Prior Carries
- 200
- Carry Share Prior Opportunities
- 50
- Receiving Empirical Blend Weight
- 0.25
- Receiving Efficiency Prior Receptions
- 100
- Parameter Training Cutoff
- 2023
- Source Manifest Hash
- 125c9078443eff5bc7c358cf568e4fafc6675fbbde4332f182032ea6bb1d1272
- Unsupported Components
- 0
- two_point_conversions
- 1
- fumbles_lost
Full-PPR · 10.6 points · 3.0 floor · 9.3 median · 20.2 ceiling
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 1
- Game Id
- 10527
- Player Id
- 1499
- Team Id
- 49
- Opponent Team Id
- 52
- Position Code
- RB
- Scoring System Code
- full_ppr
- Model Version
- nfl_p11a_forward_fantasy_v1
- Scoring Version
- pardonme_fantasy_v1
- Projection State
- fallback
- Position Rank
- 27
- Position Population
- 60
- Projected Points
- 10.6206
- Median Points
- 9.3000
- Floor Points
- 3.0000
- Ceiling Points
- 20.2000
- Projection Json
- {"state": "fallback", "summary": {"mean": 10.6206, "floor": 3.0, "median": 9.3, "ceiling": 20.2, "draw_count": 20000, "interval_80": {"lower": 3.0, "upper": 20.2}, "floor_definition": "10th percentile", "ceiling_definition": "90th percentile", "threshold_probabilities": {"8": 0.57945, "12": 0.3574, "18": 0.1446}}, "completeness": "modeled_components_only", "position_comparison": {"rank": 27, "percentile": 55.833333333333336, "population": 60, "gap_to_position_median": 0.4442549999999983}, "unsupported_components": ["two_point_conversions", "fumbles_lost"]}
- Explanation Json
- {"short": "10.7 carries and 2.6 targets; 32% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 1.0 points each; thin-history fallback widens uncertainty; availability unknown.", "drivers": ["10.7 carries and 2.6 targets", "32% chance of 1+ relevant TD", "receptions add 1.0 points each", "thin-history fallback widens uncertainty", "availability unknown"], "causal_boundary": "P10 football outcomes determine the projection; role, matchup, P9/P9I and history are explanation/context only.", "historical_2025": null}
- Lineage Json
- {"model_version": "nfl_p11a_forward_fantasy_v1", "scoring_version": "pardonme_fantasy_v1", "p10_content_hash": "d5bd44357ec4881843ac4d0483929aae6d50dd092f9f8c281e8719de170bb9cf", "p10_model_version": "nfl_p10b_rb_empirical_v3", "draw_transformation": "exact deterministic P10 draws scored component-wise", "p10_reproducibility": {"seed": 105270121, "method": "empirical total opportunities centered on read-only P5; beta-binomial carry/target, catch and TD allocation; conditional empirical yards-per-carry and yards-per-reception", "simulations": 20000, "source_hash": "d3420a1fc87b5871c17ce5e6d7cb4450f6d1c71333ce5ed4ebf58b1daf037b26", "interval_level": 0.8, "frozen_parameters": {"era_seasons": 3, "rush_td_prior_carries": 500, "catch_rate_prior_targets": 50, "opportunity_mixture_games": 4, "receiving_td_prior_targets": 100, "rush_empirical_blend_weight": 0.5, "rush_efficiency_prior_carries": 200, "carry_share_prior_opportunities": 50, "receiving_empirical_blend_weight": 0.25, "receiving_efficiency_prior_receptions": 100}, "parameter_training_cutoff": 2023}, "source_manifest_hash": "4c5f4e9a40ac557053538001b9ea2980e855c1b5205b4fd4f4e306b613c27955", "unsupported_components": ["two_point_conversions", "fumbles_lost"]}
- Content Hash
- f30bafb890dd249bb7a0784471795c8fab0bd75a0d276a33f49f8ea2aa1afcc4
- Observed At
- 2026-08-17 20:25:11
- Generated At
- 2026-08-17 20:25:11
- Published At
- 2026-09-10 11:41:10
- Projection
- State
- fallback
- Summary
- Mean
- 10.6206
- Floor
- 3
- Median
- 9.3
- Ceiling
- 20.2
- Draw Count
- 20000
- Interval 80
- Lower
- 3
- Upper
- 20.2
- Floor Definition
- 10th percentile
- Ceiling Definition
- 90th percentile
- Threshold Probabilities
- 8
- 0.57945
- 12
- 0.3574
- 18
- 0.1446
- Completeness
- modeled_components_only
- Position Comparison
- Rank
- 27
- Percentile
- 55.833333333333
- Population
- 60
- Gap To Position Median
- 0.444255
- Unsupported Components
- 0
- two_point_conversions
- 1
- fumbles_lost
- Explanation
- Short
- 10.7 carries and 2.6 targets; 32% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 1.0 points each; thin-history fallback widens uncertainty; availability unknown.
- Drivers
- 0
- 10.7 carries and 2.6 targets
- 1
- 32% chance of 1+ relevant TD
- 2
- receptions add 1.0 points each
- 3
- thin-history fallback widens uncertainty
- 4
- availability unknown
- Causal Boundary
- P10 football outcomes determine the projection; role, matchup, P9/P9I and history are explanation/context only.
- Historical 2025
- —
- Lineage
- Model Version
- nfl_p11a_forward_fantasy_v1
- Scoring Version
- pardonme_fantasy_v1
- P10 Content Hash
- d5bd44357ec4881843ac4d0483929aae6d50dd092f9f8c281e8719de170bb9cf
- P10 Model Version
- nfl_p10b_rb_empirical_v3
- Draw Transformation
- exact deterministic P10 draws scored component-wise
- P10 Reproducibility
- Seed
- 105270121
- Method
- empirical total opportunities centered on read-only P5; beta-binomial carry/target, catch and TD allocation; conditional empirical yards-per-carry and yards-per-reception
- Simulations
- 20000
- Source Hash
- d3420a1fc87b5871c17ce5e6d7cb4450f6d1c71333ce5ed4ebf58b1daf037b26
- Interval Level
- 0.8
- Frozen Parameters
- Era Seasons
- 3
- Rush Td Prior Carries
- 500
- Catch Rate Prior Targets
- 50
- Opportunity Mixture Games
- 4
- Receiving Td Prior Targets
- 100
- Rush Empirical Blend Weight
- 0.5
- Rush Efficiency Prior Carries
- 200
- Carry Share Prior Opportunities
- 50
- Receiving Empirical Blend Weight
- 0.25
- Receiving Efficiency Prior Receptions
- 100
- Parameter Training Cutoff
- 2023
- Source Manifest Hash
- 4c5f4e9a40ac557053538001b9ea2980e855c1b5205b4fd4f4e306b613c27955
- Unsupported Components
- 0
- two_point_conversions
- 1
- fumbles_lost
Historical fantasy
PardonMe-derived scoring and usage are not official NFL statistics. Historical floor, ceiling and consistency are backward-looking; rolling, trailing and qualified position comparisons use prior weeks only.
Madden
—EA OVR
Version unavailable · Observed: Unavailable · Team: Las Vegas Raiders
EA ratings are supplied by EA; no presentation tiers are used.
Key attributes
EA attributes unavailable.
EA rating history
Career
Coverage: —–—
Team history
Role summaries
2026 · LV · 0 supported starts
- Player Id
- 1499
- Season Year
- 2026
- Team Abbr
- LV
- Games With Workload
- 3
- Supported Starts
- 0
- Primary Backup Games
- 0
- Rotational Games
- 0
- Avg Offense Pct
- —
- Avg Defense Pct
- —
- Avg Special Teams Pct
- —
- Latest Role
- unknown
- Latest Week
- 2
- Coverage State
- partial_depth
- Source Hash
- 59f23db2af9f2f65d98727159e32b1c312a6582429cea660f4935a16b542fe9a
- Last Published At
- 2026-09-18 16:46:18
Full role history
2026 Week 2 · unknown · offense —
- Player Id
- 1499
- Team Abbr
- LV
- Season Year
- 2026
- Season Type
- REG
- Week Number
- 2
- Game Id
- —
- Position Code
- RB
- Depth Position
- RB
- Formation
- src:1f258c059c3c258a3b26de94
- Depth Rank
- 2
- Derived Role
- unknown
- Starter State
- unknown
- Offense Snaps
- —
- Offense Pct
- —
- Defense Snaps
- —
- Defense Pct
- —
- Special Teams Snaps
- —
- Special Teams Pct
- —
- Confidence
- low
- Evidence Completeness
- depth_only
- Warnings Json
- ["relevant_snap_percentage_unavailable", "no_positive_participation_evidence", "official_depth_only_no_snap_evidence"]
- Source Hash
- 77b90e7ef73af96e16cd8b7ba3a1b5dec20f15221150edb875b151df94d0045e
- Source Observed At
- 2026-09-18 16:46:12
- Last Published At
- 2026-09-22 11:17:27
2026 Week 1 · participated · offense —
- Player Id
- 1499
- Team Abbr
- LV
- Season Year
- 2026
- Season Type
- REG
- Week Number
- 1
- Game Id
- 10527
- Position Code
- RB
- Depth Position
- —
- Formation
- —
- Depth Rank
- —
- Derived Role
- participated
- Starter State
- unknown
- Offense Snaps
- —
- Offense Pct
- —
- Defense Snaps
- —
- Defense Pct
- —
- Special Teams Snaps
- —
- Special Teams Pct
- —
- Confidence
- low
- Evidence Completeness
- espn_participation_only
- Warnings Json
- ["snap_participation_unavailable", "depth_rank_unavailable_for_completed_week"]
- Source Hash
- 0ac3a7b8a8a5471a3287736f71596304f7f7f70a7948e7ab9db1a86623bfa733
- Source Observed At
- 2026-09-16 16:27:46
- Last Published At
- 2026-09-17 11:24:37
2026 Week 0 · unknown · offense —
- Player Id
- 1499
- Team Abbr
- LV
- Season Year
- 2026
- Season Type
- PRE
- Week Number
- 0
- Game Id
- —
- Position Code
- RB
- Depth Position
- RB
- Formation
- —
- Depth Rank
- 2
- Derived Role
- unknown
- Starter State
- unknown
- Offense Snaps
- —
- Offense Pct
- —
- Defense Snaps
- —
- Defense Pct
- —
- Special Teams Snaps
- —
- Special Teams Pct
- —
- Confidence
- low
- Evidence Completeness
- depth_only
- Warnings Json
- ["relevant_snap_percentage_unavailable", "no_positive_participation_evidence", "official_depth_only_no_snap_evidence"]
- Source Hash
- 631e426ec7f71c93ec350b17ac68b822bfbcda9181c9f0bdc699ded2f6f1c0f9
- Source Observed At
- 2026-08-17 20:25:11
- Last Published At
- 2026-09-15 04:22:12
More
Availability detail and history
No current official observation entered. Missing information is unknown; it does not mean healthy, active, available, or unrestricted.
Advanced distributions and matchup context
Backfield distribution
fallback_distribution. Suppressed or unavailable values are not projected as zero.
- Game Id
- 10527
- Player Id
- 1499
- Team Id
- 49
- Opponent Team Id
- 52
- Position Code
- RB
- Model Version
- nfl_p10b_rb_empirical_v3
- Evidence Tier
- position_current_era_fallback
- Confidence
- Insufficient Evidence
- Distribution Json
- {"state": "fallback_distribution", "carries": {"mean": 10.71795, "median": 10.0, "interval_80": {"lower": 4.0, "upper": 19.0}}, "targets": {"mean": 2.5885, "median": 2.0, "interval_80": {"lower": 0.0, "upper": 5.0}}, "total_tds": {"mean": 0.41145, "median": 0.0, "interval_80": {"lower": 0.0, "upper": 1.0}, "probabilities": {"0": 0.67545, "1": 0.25305, "1+": 0.32455, "2+": 0.0715}}, "receptions": {"mean": 2.038, "median": 2.0, "interval_80": {"lower": 0.0, "upper": 4.0}}, "rushing_tds": {"mean": 0.33305, "median": 0.0, "interval_80": {"lower": 0.0, "upper": 1.0}, "probabilities": {"0": 0.72685, "1": 0.22245, "1+": 0.27315, "2+": 0.0507}}, "opportunities": {"mean": 13.30645, "median": 13.0, "interval_80": {"lower": 5.0, "upper": 22.0}}, "receiving_tds": {"mean": 0.0784, "median": 0.0, "interval_80": {"lower": 0.0, "upper": 0.0}, "probabilities": {"0": 0.92645, "1": 0.06905, "1+": 0.07355, "2+": 0.0045}}, "rushing_yards": {"mean": 45.96455, "median": 41.0, "interval_80": {"lower": 16.0, "upper": 82.0}}, "receiving_yards": {"mean": 15.17445, "median": 13.0, "interval_80": {"lower": 0.0, "upper": 33.0}}}
- Evidence Json
- {"current_truth": {"role": {"state": "supported", "depth_rank": 2, "source_hash": "68dbf522c5511aa28e8ffb0c3040f4ea0f70f4d8ba36128a420d2ece351c5dff", "team_match_state": "matched"}, "availability": {"state": "unknown", "reason": "current_availability_unknown_projection_retained", "values": {"roster_status": "unknown", "reserve_status": "unknown", "inactive_status": "unknown", "canonical_status": "unknown", "game_designation": "unknown"}, "conflict_state": "none", "freshness_state": "unknown", "game_scope_state": "old_or_unknown", "team_match_state": "unknown", "serve_distribution": true}, "availability_source_manifest_hash": null}, "individualized": false, "unknown_inputs": ["routes (not retained)", "historical snap share joined to nflverse player identity", "validated causal P9 run-defense coefficient", "multi-season red-zone/inside-10/inside-5 player opportunity", "true end-zone targets"], "fallback_reason": "insufficient_player_history", "player_rb_games": 0, "projection_basis": "model_imputed_baseline", "p9_run_environment": [{"run": {"edge": "mixed", "state": "supported", "defense": {"opponent_carries": 469.0, "opponent_rush_yards": 2251.0, "league_rank_low_is_best": 28, "yards_per_carry_allowed": 4.79957356076759}, "offense": {"carries": 369.0, "rush_yards": 1317.0, "yards_per_carry": 3.569105691056911, "league_rank_high_is_best": 32}, "denominator": "Retained player carries; rushing yards divided by carries", "league_medians": {"offense_yards_per_carry": 4.319816463259086, "defense_yards_per_carry_allowed": 4.29079863438525}}, "defense": "MIA", "offense": "LV", "model_effect": "explanatory only; no validated causal coefficient"}], "meaningful_definition": ">=5 carries+targets and >=15% of team RB opportunities", "p5_opportunity_center": {"value": 13.247097797683, "contract": "accepted P5 external carries+targets center; read-only", "workload_target": "opportunities"}, "p9_scoring_opportunity_context": {"season": 2025, "model_effect": "none; retained one-season context is not used as an unvalidated multiplier", "inside_5_carries": 0, "red_zone_carries": 0, "red_zone_targets": 0, "inside_10_carries": 0, "true_end_zone_targets": "Unknown"}}
- Reproducibility Json
- {"seed": 105270121, "method": "empirical total opportunities centered on read-only P5; beta-binomial carry/target, catch and TD allocation; conditional empirical yards-per-carry and yards-per-reception", "simulations": 20000, "source_hash": "d3420a1fc87b5871c17ce5e6d7cb4450f6d1c71333ce5ed4ebf58b1daf037b26", "interval_level": 0.8, "frozen_parameters": {"era_seasons": 3, "rush_td_prior_carries": 500, "catch_rate_prior_targets": 50, "opportunity_mixture_games": 4, "receiving_td_prior_targets": 100, "rush_empirical_blend_weight": 0.5, "rush_efficiency_prior_carries": 200, "carry_share_prior_opportunities": 50, "receiving_empirical_blend_weight": 0.25, "receiving_efficiency_prior_receptions": 100}, "parameter_training_cutoff": 2023}
- Content Hash
- d5bd44357ec4881843ac4d0483929aae6d50dd092f9f8c281e8719de170bb9cf
- Observed At
- 2026-08-17 20:25:11
- Generated At
- 2026-08-17 20:25:11
- Published At
- 2026-09-08 01:32:16
- Team Abbr
- LV
- Opponent Abbr
- MIA
- Distribution
- State
- fallback_distribution
- Carries
- Mean
- 10.71795
- Median
- 10
- Interval 80
- Lower
- 4
- Upper
- 19
- Targets
- Mean
- 2.5885
- Median
- 2
- Interval 80
- Lower
- 0
- Upper
- 5
- Total Tds
- Mean
- 0.41145
- Median
- 0
- Interval 80
- Lower
- 0
- Upper
- 1
- Probabilities
- 0
- 0.67545
- 1
- 0.25305
- 1+
- 0.32455
- 2+
- 0.0715
- Receptions
- Mean
- 2.038
- Median
- 2
- Interval 80
- Lower
- 0
- Upper
- 4
- Rushing Tds
- Mean
- 0.33305
- Median
- 0
- Interval 80
- Lower
- 0
- Upper
- 1
- Probabilities
- 0
- 0.72685
- 1
- 0.22245
- 1+
- 0.27315
- 2+
- 0.0507
- Opportunities
- Mean
- 13.30645
- Median
- 13
- Interval 80
- Lower
- 5
- Upper
- 22
- Receiving Tds
- Mean
- 0.0784
- Median
- 0
- Interval 80
- Lower
- 0
- Upper
- 0
- Probabilities
- 0
- 0.92645
- 1
- 0.06905
- 1+
- 0.07355
- 2+
- 0.0045
- Rushing Yards
- Mean
- 45.96455
- Median
- 41
- Interval 80
- Lower
- 16
- Upper
- 82
- Receiving Yards
- Mean
- 15.17445
- Median
- 13
- Interval 80
- Lower
- 0
- Upper
- 33
- Evidence
- Current Truth
- Role
- State
- supported
- Depth Rank
- 2
- Source Hash
- 68dbf522c5511aa28e8ffb0c3040f4ea0f70f4d8ba36128a420d2ece351c5dff
- Team Match State
- matched
- Availability
- State
- unknown
- Reason
- current_availability_unknown_projection_retained
- Values
- Roster Status
- unknown
- Reserve Status
- unknown
- Inactive Status
- unknown
- Canonical Status
- unknown
- Game Designation
- unknown
- Conflict State
- none
- Freshness State
- unknown
- Game Scope State
- old_or_unknown
- Team Match State
- unknown
- Serve Distribution
- 1
- Availability Source Manifest Hash
- —
- Individualized
- Unknown Inputs
- 0
- routes (not retained)
- 1
- historical snap share joined to nflverse player identity
- 2
- validated causal P9 run-defense coefficient
- 3
- multi-season red-zone/inside-10/inside-5 player opportunity
- 4
- true end-zone targets
- Fallback Reason
- insufficient_player_history
- Player Rb Games
- 0
- Projection Basis
- model_imputed_baseline
- P9 Run Environment
- 0
- Run
- Edge
- mixed
- State
- supported
- Defense
- Opponent Carries
- 469
- Opponent Rush Yards
- 2251
- League Rank Low Is Best
- 28
- Yards Per Carry Allowed
- 4.7995735607676
- Offense
- Carries
- 369
- Rush Yards
- 1317
- Yards Per Carry
- 3.5691056910569
- League Rank High Is Best
- 32
- Denominator
- Retained player carries; rushing yards divided by carries
- League Medians
- Offense Yards Per Carry
- 4.3198164632591
- Defense Yards Per Carry Allowed
- 4.2907986343852
- Defense
- MIA
- Offense
- LV
- Model Effect
- explanatory only; no validated causal coefficient
- Meaningful Definition
- >=5 carries+targets and >=15% of team RB opportunities
- P5 Opportunity Center
- Value
- 13.247097797683
- Contract
- accepted P5 external carries+targets center; read-only
- Workload Target
- opportunities
- P9 Scoring Opportunity Context
- Season
- 2025
- Model Effect
- none; retained one-season context is not used as an unvalidated multiplier
- Inside 5 Carries
- 0
- Red Zone Carries
- 0
- Red Zone Targets
- 0
- Inside 10 Carries
- 0
- True End Zone Targets
- Unknown
- Reproducibility
- Seed
- 105270121
- Method
- empirical total opportunities centered on read-only P5; beta-binomial carry/target, catch and TD allocation; conditional empirical yards-per-carry and yards-per-reception
- Simulations
- 20000
- Source Hash
- d3420a1fc87b5871c17ce5e6d7cb4450f6d1c71333ce5ed4ebf58b1daf037b26
- Interval Level
- 0.8
- Frozen Parameters
- Era Seasons
- 3
- Rush Td Prior Carries
- 500
- Catch Rate Prior Targets
- 50
- Opportunity Mixture Games
- 4
- Receiving Td Prior Targets
- 100
- Rush Empirical Blend Weight
- 0.5
- Rush Efficiency Prior Carries
- 200
- Carry Share Prior Opportunities
- 50
- Receiving Empirical Blend Weight
- 0.25
- Receiving Efficiency Prior Receptions
- 100
- Parameter Training Cutoff
- 2023
Unit, passing and scoring context
- Unit Matchups
- 0
- Game Id
- 10527
- Offense Team Id
- 49
- Defense Team Id
- 52
- Offense Abbr
- LV
- Defense Abbr
- MIA
- Pressure Json
- {"state": "unknown", "reason": "Retained nflverse player statistics include QB hits but not total pressure events; QB hits are not relabeled as pressures."}
- Sack Json
- {"edge": "defense", "state": "supported", "defense": {"rate": 0.0703971119133574, "sacks": 39.0, "opponent_dropbacks": 554.0, "league_rank_high_is_best": 16}, "offense": {"rate": 0.11053540587219345, "dropbacks": 579.0, "sacks_allowed": 64.0, "league_rank_low_is_best": 32}, "denominator": "QB dropbacks = pass attempts + sacks suffered", "league_medians": {"defense_sack_rate": 0.06745662047280773, "offense_sack_rate": 0.06683513419309864}}
- Run Json
- {"edge": "mixed", "state": "supported", "defense": {"opponent_carries": 469.0, "opponent_rush_yards": 2251.0, "league_rank_low_is_best": 28, "yards_per_carry_allowed": 4.79957356076759}, "offense": {"carries": 369.0, "rush_yards": 1317.0, "yards_per_carry": 3.569105691056911, "league_rank_high_is_best": 32}, "denominator": "Retained player carries; rushing yards divided by carries", "league_medians": {"offense_yards_per_carry": 4.319816463259086, "defense_yards_per_carry_allowed": 4.29079863438525}}
- Sample Basis
- 2025 REG nflverse weekly player statistics; full retained team schedule
- Provenance Json
- {"table": "pardonme_warehouse.nfl_player_week_statistics", "season": 2025, "provider": "nflverse", "season_type": "REG", "source_hash": "96ed9fc2342cce01f3535f89b0edffc1e317ed2d2a210c163172560ecef4f94f"}
- Missingness Json
- {"pressure_rate": "unknown_total_pressure_events_not_retained", "individual_ol_assignments": "unknown", "current_replacement_effect": "unknown_not_inferred_from_depth_or_availability", "pressures_allowed_by_lineman": "unknown"}
- Confidence
- supported_prior_season_team_aggregate
- Explanation
- LV protection allowed 64.0 sacks on 579 dropbacks (11.1%, league rank 32/32 with low rate best); MIA produced 39.0 sacks on 554 opponent dropbacks (7.0%, rank 16/32 with high rate best). On the ground, LV averaged 3.57 yards per carry and MIA allowed 4.80. Pressure rate remains Unknown because total pressure events are not retained.
- Contract Version
- nfl_unit_matchup_p9a_v1
- Content Hash
- 95b0f318cb790c9cc28700a92d25939bc4cdd04595dc0c8ca5eb62bb3d9fbf84
- Derived At
- 2026-08-24 19:05:02
- Published At
- 2026-08-24 19:05:02
- Pressure
- State
- unknown
- Reason
- Retained nflverse player statistics include QB hits but not total pressure events; QB hits are not relabeled as pressures.
- Sack
- Edge
- defense
- State
- supported
- Defense
- Rate
- 0.070397111913357
- Sacks
- 39
- Opponent Dropbacks
- 554
- League Rank High Is Best
- 16
- Offense
- Rate
- 0.11053540587219
- Dropbacks
- 579
- Sacks Allowed
- 64
- League Rank Low Is Best
- 32
- Denominator
- QB dropbacks = pass attempts + sacks suffered
- League Medians
- Defense Sack Rate
- 0.067456620472808
- Offense Sack Rate
- 0.066835134193099
- Run
- Edge
- mixed
- State
- supported
- Defense
- Opponent Carries
- 469
- Opponent Rush Yards
- 2251
- League Rank Low Is Best
- 28
- Yards Per Carry Allowed
- 4.7995735607676
- Offense
- Carries
- 369
- Rush Yards
- 1317
- Yards Per Carry
- 3.5691056910569
- League Rank High Is Best
- 32
- Denominator
- Retained player carries; rushing yards divided by carries
- League Medians
- Offense Yards Per Carry
- 4.3198164632591
- Defense Yards Per Carry Allowed
- 4.2907986343852
- Provenance
- Table
- pardonme_warehouse.nfl_player_week_statistics
- Season
- 2025
- Provider
- nflverse
- Season Type
- REG
- Source Hash
- 96ed9fc2342cce01f3535f89b0edffc1e317ed2d2a210c163172560ecef4f94f
- Missingness
- Pressure Rate
- unknown_total_pressure_events_not_retained
- Individual Ol Assignments
- unknown
- Current Replacement Effect
- unknown_not_inferred_from_depth_or_availability
- Pressures Allowed By Lineman
- unknown
- 1
- Game Id
- 10527
- Offense Team Id
- 52
- Defense Team Id
- 49
- Offense Abbr
- MIA
- Defense Abbr
- LV
- Pressure Json
- {"state": "unknown", "reason": "Retained nflverse player statistics include QB hits but not total pressure events; QB hits are not relabeled as pressures."}
- Sack Json
- {"edge": "mixed", "state": "supported", "defense": {"rate": 0.06417112299465241, "sacks": 36.0, "opponent_dropbacks": 561.0, "league_rank_high_is_best": 18}, "offense": {"rate": 0.0735009671179884, "dropbacks": 517.0, "sacks_allowed": 38.0, "league_rank_low_is_best": 19}, "denominator": "QB dropbacks = pass attempts + sacks suffered", "league_medians": {"defense_sack_rate": 0.06745662047280773, "offense_sack_rate": 0.06683513419309864}}
- Run Json
- {"edge": "mixed", "state": "supported", "defense": {"opponent_carries": 511.0, "opponent_rush_yards": 1986.0, "league_rank_low_is_best": 4, "yards_per_carry_allowed": 3.886497064579257}, "offense": {"carries": 432.0, "rush_yards": 2044.0, "yards_per_carry": 4.731481481481482, "league_rank_high_is_best": 4}, "denominator": "Retained player carries; rushing yards divided by carries", "league_medians": {"offense_yards_per_carry": 4.319816463259086, "defense_yards_per_carry_allowed": 4.29079863438525}}
- Sample Basis
- 2025 REG nflverse weekly player statistics; full retained team schedule
- Provenance Json
- {"table": "pardonme_warehouse.nfl_player_week_statistics", "season": 2025, "provider": "nflverse", "season_type": "REG", "source_hash": "96ed9fc2342cce01f3535f89b0edffc1e317ed2d2a210c163172560ecef4f94f"}
- Missingness Json
- {"pressure_rate": "unknown_total_pressure_events_not_retained", "individual_ol_assignments": "unknown", "current_replacement_effect": "unknown_not_inferred_from_depth_or_availability", "pressures_allowed_by_lineman": "unknown"}
- Confidence
- supported_prior_season_team_aggregate
- Explanation
- MIA protection allowed 38.0 sacks on 517 dropbacks (7.4%, league rank 19/32 with low rate best); LV produced 36.0 sacks on 561 opponent dropbacks (6.4%, rank 18/32 with high rate best). On the ground, MIA averaged 4.73 yards per carry and LV allowed 3.89. Pressure rate remains Unknown because total pressure events are not retained.
- Contract Version
- nfl_unit_matchup_p9a_v1
- Content Hash
- 9f07c24797e8265a4aef9e10168323854637c8d14d3b43878dc5e22258ceccc7
- Derived At
- 2026-08-24 19:05:02
- Published At
- 2026-08-24 19:05:02
- Pressure
- State
- unknown
- Reason
- Retained nflverse player statistics include QB hits but not total pressure events; QB hits are not relabeled as pressures.
- Sack
- Edge
- mixed
- State
- supported
- Defense
- Rate
- 0.064171122994652
- Sacks
- 36
- Opponent Dropbacks
- 561
- League Rank High Is Best
- 18
- Offense
- Rate
- 0.073500967117988
- Dropbacks
- 517
- Sacks Allowed
- 38
- League Rank Low Is Best
- 19
- Denominator
- QB dropbacks = pass attempts + sacks suffered
- League Medians
- Defense Sack Rate
- 0.067456620472808
- Offense Sack Rate
- 0.066835134193099
- Run
- Edge
- mixed
- State
- supported
- Defense
- Opponent Carries
- 511
- Opponent Rush Yards
- 1986
- League Rank Low Is Best
- 4
- Yards Per Carry Allowed
- 3.8864970645793
- Offense
- Carries
- 432
- Rush Yards
- 2044
- Yards Per Carry
- 4.7314814814815
- League Rank High Is Best
- 4
- Denominator
- Retained player carries; rushing yards divided by carries
- League Medians
- Offense Yards Per Carry
- 4.3198164632591
- Defense Yards Per Carry Allowed
- 4.2907986343852
- Provenance
- Table
- pardonme_warehouse.nfl_player_week_statistics
- Season
- 2025
- Provider
- nflverse
- Season Type
- REG
- Source Hash
- 96ed9fc2342cce01f3535f89b0edffc1e317ed2d2a210c163172560ecef4f94f
- Missingness
- Pressure Rate
- unknown_total_pressure_events_not_retained
- Individual Ol Assignments
- unknown
- Current Replacement Effect
- unknown_not_inferred_from_depth_or_availability
- Pressures Allowed By Lineman
- unknown
- Passing Matchups
- 0
- Game Id
- 10527
- Offense Team Id
- 49
- Defense Team Id
- 52
- Offense Abbr
- LV
- Defense Abbr
- MIA
- Completion Json
- {"edge": "offense", "state": "supported", "defense": {"value": 0.7203883495145631, "numerator": 371.0, "league_rank": 32, "opponent_attempts": 515.0}, "offense": {"value": 0.6601941747572816, "attempts": 515.0, "numerator": 340.0, "league_rank": 11}, "denominator": "completions / pass attempts", "league_teams": 32, "league_medians": {"defense": 0.6470757053954443, "offense": 0.6443706063268893}}
- Efficiency Json
- {"edge": "mixed", "state": "supported", "defense": {"value": 7.611650485436893, "numerator": 3920.0, "league_rank": 26, "opponent_attempts": 515.0}, "offense": {"value": 6.436893203883495, "attempts": 515.0, "numerator": 3315.0, "league_rank": 27}, "denominator": "passing yards / pass attempts", "league_teams": 32, "league_medians": {"defense": 7.041235616438357, "offense": 6.941278879916052}}
- Touchdown Json
- {"edge": "mixed", "state": "supported", "defense": {"value": 0.05631067961165048, "numerator": 29.0, "league_rank": 26, "opponent_attempts": 515.0}, "offense": {"value": 0.03883495145631067, "attempts": 515.0, "numerator": 20.0, "league_rank": 26}, "denominator": "passing touchdowns / pass attempts", "league_teams": 32, "league_medians": {"defense": 0.04644643781266172, "offense": 0.04659846191321293}}
- Interception Json
- {"edge": "mixed", "state": "supported", "defense": {"value": 0.017475728155339806, "numerator": 9.0, "league_rank": 23, "opponent_attempts": 515.0}, "offense": {"value": 0.036893203883495145, "attempts": 515.0, "numerator": 19.0, "league_rank": 30}, "denominator": "passing interceptions / pass attempts", "league_teams": 32, "league_medians": {"defense": 0.02121271115370792, "offense": 0.02025329436496949}}
- Explosive Json
- {"edge": "mixed", "state": "supported", "defense": {"value": 0.09902912621359224, "numerator": 51.0, "league_rank": 25, "opponent_attempts": 515.0}, "offense": {"value": 0.07184466019417475, "attempts": 515.0, "numerator": 37.0, "league_rank": 29}, "denominator": "retained nflverse 20+ yard passing plays / pass attempts", "league_teams": 32, "league_medians": {"defense": 0.08874977674584747, "offense": 0.08576318929598403}}
- Advanced Json
- {"epa": "unknown_incomplete_and_aggregation_semantics_not_governed", "cpoe": "unknown_incomplete_and_aggregation_semantics_not_governed", "state": "unknown", "reason": "EPA/CPOE are activity-dependent and incomplete in retained rows; success rate and 2025 REG PBP are not retained.", "success_rate": "unknown_not_retained_in_2025_weekly_player_facts"}
- Coverage Json
- {"man_zone_rate": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence", "cb_wr_assignment": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence", "separation_allowed": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence", "target_specific_coverage": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence", "individual_defender_grade": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence"}
- Sample Basis
- 2025 REG nflverse weekly player statistics; full retained team schedule
- Provenance Json
- {"table": "pardonme_warehouse.nfl_player_week_statistics", "season": 2025, "provider": "nflverse", "season_type": "REG", "source_hash": "96ed9fc2342cce01f3535f89b0edffc1e317ed2d2a210c163172560ecef4f94f"}
- Missingness Json
- {"advanced": {"epa": "unknown_incomplete_and_aggregation_semantics_not_governed", "cpoe": "unknown_incomplete_and_aggregation_semantics_not_governed", "state": "unknown", "reason": "EPA/CPOE are activity-dependent and incomplete in retained rows; success rate and 2025 REG PBP are not retained.", "success_rate": "unknown_not_retained_in_2025_weekly_player_facts"}, "coverage": {"man_zone_rate": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence", "cb_wr_assignment": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence", "separation_allowed": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence", "target_specific_coverage": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence", "individual_defender_grade": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence"}}
- Confidence
- supported_prior_season_team_passing_aggregate
- Explanation
- completion: LV passing-offense advantage; efficiency: mixed evidence; touchdown: mixed evidence; interception: mixed evidence; explosive: mixed evidence.
- Contract Version
- nfl_passing_matchup_p9c_v1
- Content Hash
- 795b4a7c008048d283e4af40abb46a0423628faf2b5718f9ba109f7175e98c2f
- Derived At
- 2026-08-25 05:06:49
- Published At
- 2026-08-25 05:06:49
- Completion
- Edge
- offense
- State
- supported
- Defense
- Value
- 0.72038834951456
- Numerator
- 371
- League Rank
- 32
- Opponent Attempts
- 515
- Offense
- Value
- 0.66019417475728
- Attempts
- 515
- Numerator
- 340
- League Rank
- 11
- Denominator
- completions / pass attempts
- League Teams
- 32
- League Medians
- Defense
- 0.64707570539544
- Offense
- 0.64437060632689
- Efficiency
- Edge
- mixed
- State
- supported
- Defense
- Value
- 7.6116504854369
- Numerator
- 3920
- League Rank
- 26
- Opponent Attempts
- 515
- Offense
- Value
- 6.4368932038835
- Attempts
- 515
- Numerator
- 3315
- League Rank
- 27
- Denominator
- passing yards / pass attempts
- League Teams
- 32
- League Medians
- Defense
- 7.0412356164384
- Offense
- 6.9412788799161
- Touchdown
- Edge
- mixed
- State
- supported
- Defense
- Value
- 0.05631067961165
- Numerator
- 29
- League Rank
- 26
- Opponent Attempts
- 515
- Offense
- Value
- 0.038834951456311
- Attempts
- 515
- Numerator
- 20
- League Rank
- 26
- Denominator
- passing touchdowns / pass attempts
- League Teams
- 32
- League Medians
- Defense
- 0.046446437812662
- Offense
- 0.046598461913213
- Interception
- Edge
- mixed
- State
- supported
- Defense
- Value
- 0.01747572815534
- Numerator
- 9
- League Rank
- 23
- Opponent Attempts
- 515
- Offense
- Value
- 0.036893203883495
- Attempts
- 515
- Numerator
- 19
- League Rank
- 30
- Denominator
- passing interceptions / pass attempts
- League Teams
- 32
- League Medians
- Defense
- 0.021212711153708
- Offense
- 0.020253294364969
- Explosive
- Edge
- mixed
- State
- supported
- Defense
- Value
- 0.099029126213592
- Numerator
- 51
- League Rank
- 25
- Opponent Attempts
- 515
- Offense
- Value
- 0.071844660194175
- Attempts
- 515
- Numerator
- 37
- League Rank
- 29
- Denominator
- retained nflverse 20+ yard passing plays / pass attempts
- League Teams
- 32
- League Medians
- Defense
- 0.088749776745847
- Offense
- 0.085763189295984
- Advanced
- Epa
- unknown_incomplete_and_aggregation_semantics_not_governed
- Cpoe
- unknown_incomplete_and_aggregation_semantics_not_governed
- State
- unknown
- Reason
- EPA/CPOE are activity-dependent and incomplete in retained rows; success rate and 2025 REG PBP are not retained.
- Success Rate
- unknown_not_retained_in_2025_weekly_player_facts
- Coverage
- Man Zone Rate
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Cb Wr Assignment
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Separation Allowed
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Target Specific Coverage
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Individual Defender Grade
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Provenance
- Table
- pardonme_warehouse.nfl_player_week_statistics
- Season
- 2025
- Provider
- nflverse
- Season Type
- REG
- Source Hash
- 96ed9fc2342cce01f3535f89b0edffc1e317ed2d2a210c163172560ecef4f94f
- Missingness
- Advanced
- Epa
- unknown_incomplete_and_aggregation_semantics_not_governed
- Cpoe
- unknown_incomplete_and_aggregation_semantics_not_governed
- State
- unknown
- Reason
- EPA/CPOE are activity-dependent and incomplete in retained rows; success rate and 2025 REG PBP are not retained.
- Success Rate
- unknown_not_retained_in_2025_weekly_player_facts
- Coverage
- Man Zone Rate
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Cb Wr Assignment
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Separation Allowed
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Target Specific Coverage
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Individual Defender Grade
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- 1
- Game Id
- 10527
- Offense Team Id
- 52
- Defense Team Id
- 49
- Offense Abbr
- MIA
- Defense Abbr
- LV
- Completion Json
- {"edge": "offense", "state": "supported", "defense": {"value": 0.6851145038167938, "numerator": 359.0, "league_rank": 29, "opponent_attempts": 524.0}, "offense": {"value": 0.6722338204592901, "attempts": 479.0, "numerator": 322.0, "league_rank": 6}, "denominator": "completions / pass attempts", "league_teams": 32, "league_medians": {"defense": 0.6470757053954443, "offense": 0.6443706063268893}}
- Efficiency Json
- {"edge": "defense", "state": "supported", "defense": {"value": 6.9541984732824424, "numerator": 3644.0, "league_rank": 15, "opponent_attempts": 524.0}, "offense": {"value": 6.935281837160751, "attempts": 479.0, "numerator": 3322.0, "league_rank": 17}, "denominator": "passing yards / pass attempts", "league_teams": 32, "league_medians": {"defense": 7.041235616438357, "offense": 6.941278879916052}}
- Touchdown Json
- {"edge": "mixed", "state": "supported", "defense": {"value": 0.04389312977099236, "numerator": 23.0, "league_rank": 14, "opponent_attempts": 524.0}, "offense": {"value": 0.04801670146137787, "attempts": 479.0, "numerator": 23.0, "league_rank": 14}, "denominator": "passing touchdowns / pass attempts", "league_teams": 32, "league_medians": {"defense": 0.04644643781266172, "offense": 0.04659846191321293}}
- Interception Json
- {"edge": "mixed", "state": "supported", "defense": {"value": 0.015267175572519083, "numerator": 8.0, "league_rank": 26, "opponent_attempts": 524.0}, "offense": {"value": 0.037578288100208766, "attempts": 479.0, "numerator": 18.0, "league_rank": 31}, "denominator": "passing interceptions / pass attempts", "league_teams": 32, "league_medians": {"defense": 0.02121271115370792, "offense": 0.02025329436496949}}
- Explosive Json
- {"edge": "mixed", "state": "supported", "defense": {"value": 0.07061068702290077, "numerator": 37.0, "league_rank": 2, "opponent_attempts": 524.0}, "offense": {"value": 0.08977035490605428, "attempts": 479.0, "numerator": 43.0, "league_rank": 12}, "denominator": "retained nflverse 20+ yard passing plays / pass attempts", "league_teams": 32, "league_medians": {"defense": 0.08874977674584747, "offense": 0.08576318929598403}}
- Advanced Json
- {"epa": "unknown_incomplete_and_aggregation_semantics_not_governed", "cpoe": "unknown_incomplete_and_aggregation_semantics_not_governed", "state": "unknown", "reason": "EPA/CPOE are activity-dependent and incomplete in retained rows; success rate and 2025 REG PBP are not retained.", "success_rate": "unknown_not_retained_in_2025_weekly_player_facts"}
- Coverage Json
- {"man_zone_rate": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence", "cb_wr_assignment": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence", "separation_allowed": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence", "target_specific_coverage": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence", "individual_defender_grade": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence"}
- Sample Basis
- 2025 REG nflverse weekly player statistics; full retained team schedule
- Provenance Json
- {"table": "pardonme_warehouse.nfl_player_week_statistics", "season": 2025, "provider": "nflverse", "season_type": "REG", "source_hash": "96ed9fc2342cce01f3535f89b0edffc1e317ed2d2a210c163172560ecef4f94f"}
- Missingness Json
- {"advanced": {"epa": "unknown_incomplete_and_aggregation_semantics_not_governed", "cpoe": "unknown_incomplete_and_aggregation_semantics_not_governed", "state": "unknown", "reason": "EPA/CPOE are activity-dependent and incomplete in retained rows; success rate and 2025 REG PBP are not retained.", "success_rate": "unknown_not_retained_in_2025_weekly_player_facts"}, "coverage": {"man_zone_rate": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence", "cb_wr_assignment": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence", "separation_allowed": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence", "target_specific_coverage": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence", "individual_defender_grade": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence"}}
- Confidence
- supported_prior_season_team_passing_aggregate
- Explanation
- completion: MIA passing-offense advantage; efficiency: LV pass-defense advantage; touchdown: mixed evidence; interception: mixed evidence; explosive: mixed evidence.
- Contract Version
- nfl_passing_matchup_p9c_v1
- Content Hash
- df4253c40ed0846f846cc190c6c9e02a275a39526b61f8ee35e63ff9f1c284dd
- Derived At
- 2026-08-25 05:06:49
- Published At
- 2026-08-25 05:06:49
- Completion
- Edge
- offense
- State
- supported
- Defense
- Value
- 0.68511450381679
- Numerator
- 359
- League Rank
- 29
- Opponent Attempts
- 524
- Offense
- Value
- 0.67223382045929
- Attempts
- 479
- Numerator
- 322
- League Rank
- 6
- Denominator
- completions / pass attempts
- League Teams
- 32
- League Medians
- Defense
- 0.64707570539544
- Offense
- 0.64437060632689
- Efficiency
- Edge
- defense
- State
- supported
- Defense
- Value
- 6.9541984732824
- Numerator
- 3644
- League Rank
- 15
- Opponent Attempts
- 524
- Offense
- Value
- 6.9352818371608
- Attempts
- 479
- Numerator
- 3322
- League Rank
- 17
- Denominator
- passing yards / pass attempts
- League Teams
- 32
- League Medians
- Defense
- 7.0412356164384
- Offense
- 6.9412788799161
- Touchdown
- Edge
- mixed
- State
- supported
- Defense
- Value
- 0.043893129770992
- Numerator
- 23
- League Rank
- 14
- Opponent Attempts
- 524
- Offense
- Value
- 0.048016701461378
- Attempts
- 479
- Numerator
- 23
- League Rank
- 14
- Denominator
- passing touchdowns / pass attempts
- League Teams
- 32
- League Medians
- Defense
- 0.046446437812662
- Offense
- 0.046598461913213
- Interception
- Edge
- mixed
- State
- supported
- Defense
- Value
- 0.015267175572519
- Numerator
- 8
- League Rank
- 26
- Opponent Attempts
- 524
- Offense
- Value
- 0.037578288100209
- Attempts
- 479
- Numerator
- 18
- League Rank
- 31
- Denominator
- passing interceptions / pass attempts
- League Teams
- 32
- League Medians
- Defense
- 0.021212711153708
- Offense
- 0.020253294364969
- Explosive
- Edge
- mixed
- State
- supported
- Defense
- Value
- 0.070610687022901
- Numerator
- 37
- League Rank
- 2
- Opponent Attempts
- 524
- Offense
- Value
- 0.089770354906054
- Attempts
- 479
- Numerator
- 43
- League Rank
- 12
- Denominator
- retained nflverse 20+ yard passing plays / pass attempts
- League Teams
- 32
- League Medians
- Defense
- 0.088749776745847
- Offense
- 0.085763189295984
- Advanced
- Epa
- unknown_incomplete_and_aggregation_semantics_not_governed
- Cpoe
- unknown_incomplete_and_aggregation_semantics_not_governed
- State
- unknown
- Reason
- EPA/CPOE are activity-dependent and incomplete in retained rows; success rate and 2025 REG PBP are not retained.
- Success Rate
- unknown_not_retained_in_2025_weekly_player_facts
- Coverage
- Man Zone Rate
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Cb Wr Assignment
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Separation Allowed
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Target Specific Coverage
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Individual Defender Grade
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Provenance
- Table
- pardonme_warehouse.nfl_player_week_statistics
- Season
- 2025
- Provider
- nflverse
- Season Type
- REG
- Source Hash
- 96ed9fc2342cce01f3535f89b0edffc1e317ed2d2a210c163172560ecef4f94f
- Missingness
- Advanced
- Epa
- unknown_incomplete_and_aggregation_semantics_not_governed
- Cpoe
- unknown_incomplete_and_aggregation_semantics_not_governed
- State
- unknown
- Reason
- EPA/CPOE are activity-dependent and incomplete in retained rows; success rate and 2025 REG PBP are not retained.
- Success Rate
- unknown_not_retained_in_2025_weekly_player_facts
- Coverage
- Man Zone Rate
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Cb Wr Assignment
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Separation Allowed
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Target Specific Coverage
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Individual Defender Grade
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Scoring Opportunities
- Team
- 49
- Game Id
- 10527
- Subject Type
- team
- Subject Id
- 49
- Team Id
- 49
- Opponent Team Id
- 52
- Context Json
- {"state": "supported", "sample": {"season": 2025, "season_type": "REG", "defense_games": 17, "offense_games": 15}, "offense": {"red_zone_plays": {"state": "supported", "value": null, "numerator": 114, "denominator": null, "description": "Pass or rush attempts at the opponent 20 or closer"}, "red_zone_trips": {"state": "supported", "value": null, "numerator": 37, "denominator": null, "description": "Distinct 2025 REG drives with an offensive scrimmage play at the opponent 20 or closer"}, "goal_to_go_trips": {"state": "supported", "value": 0.4594594594594595, "numerator": 17, "denominator": 37, "description": "Red-zone trips containing a source-flagged goal-to-go play"}, "red_zone_td_conversion": {"state": "supported", "value": 0.4864864864864865, "numerator": 18, "denominator": 37, "description": "Red-zone trips containing a passing or rushing touchdown"}}, "subject": "team_direction", "boundary": "Prior observed team scoring-opportunity environment only; no 2026 role or touchdown probability is inferred.", "provenance": {"dataset": "play_by_play_2025.csv.gz", "provider": "nflverse", "source_url": "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2025.csv.gz", "source_hash": "2f135887790a013fd004e609e37096bb4816d5cc80b9f19122e1bad478961978"}, "defense_abbr": "MIA", "offense_abbr": "LV", "defense_allowed": {"red_zone_plays": {"state": "supported", "value": null, "numerator": 162, "denominator": null, "description": "Opponent pass or rush attempts at the 20 or closer"}, "red_zone_trips": {"state": "supported", "value": null, "numerator": 62, "denominator": null, "description": "Distinct opponent red-zone drives allowed"}, "goal_to_go_trips": {"state": "supported", "value": 0.4516129032258064, "numerator": 28, "denominator": 62, "description": "Allowed red-zone trips containing a source-flagged goal-to-go play"}, "red_zone_td_conversion": {"state": "supported", "value": 0.6290322580645161, "numerator": 39, "denominator": 62, "description": "Allowed red-zone trips containing a passing or rushing touchdown"}}}
- Contract Version
- nfl_scoring_opportunity_p9f_v2
- Content Hash
- e22e559239ac5b1c8ce3f24d304cb227239b31ce492f86d8084930aadf8d8399
- Derived At
- 2026-08-25 21:54:55
- Published At
- 2026-08-25 21:54:55
- Context
- State
- supported
- Sample
- Season
- 2025
- Season Type
- REG
- Defense Games
- 17
- Offense Games
- 15
- Offense
- Red Zone Plays
- State
- supported
- Value
- —
- Numerator
- 114
- Denominator
- —
- Description
- Pass or rush attempts at the opponent 20 or closer
- Red Zone Trips
- State
- supported
- Value
- —
- Numerator
- 37
- Denominator
- —
- Description
- Distinct 2025 REG drives with an offensive scrimmage play at the opponent 20 or closer
- Goal To Go Trips
- State
- supported
- Value
- 0.45945945945946
- Numerator
- 17
- Denominator
- 37
- Description
- Red-zone trips containing a source-flagged goal-to-go play
- Red Zone Td Conversion
- State
- supported
- Value
- 0.48648648648649
- Numerator
- 18
- Denominator
- 37
- Description
- Red-zone trips containing a passing or rushing touchdown
- Subject
- team_direction
- Boundary
- Prior observed team scoring-opportunity environment only; no 2026 role or touchdown probability is inferred.
- Provenance
- Dataset
- play_by_play_2025.csv.gz
- Provider
- nflverse
- Source Url
- https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2025.csv.gz
- Source Hash
- 2f135887790a013fd004e609e37096bb4816d5cc80b9f19122e1bad478961978
- Defense Abbr
- MIA
- Offense Abbr
- LV
- Defense Allowed
- Red Zone Plays
- State
- supported
- Value
- —
- Numerator
- 162
- Denominator
- —
- Description
- Opponent pass or rush attempts at the 20 or closer
- Red Zone Trips
- State
- supported
- Value
- —
- Numerator
- 62
- Denominator
- —
- Description
- Distinct opponent red-zone drives allowed
- Goal To Go Trips
- State
- supported
- Value
- 0.45161290322581
- Numerator
- 28
- Denominator
- 62
- Description
- Allowed red-zone trips containing a source-flagged goal-to-go play
- Red Zone Td Conversion
- State
- supported
- Value
- 0.62903225806452
- Numerator
- 39
- Denominator
- 62
- Description
- Allowed red-zone trips containing a passing or rushing touchdown
- 52
- Game Id
- 10527
- Subject Type
- team
- Subject Id
- 52
- Team Id
- 52
- Opponent Team Id
- 49
- Context Json
- {"state": "supported", "sample": {"season": 2025, "season_type": "REG", "defense_games": 17, "offense_games": 17}, "offense": {"red_zone_plays": {"state": "supported", "value": null, "numerator": 140, "denominator": null, "description": "Pass or rush attempts at the opponent 20 or closer"}, "red_zone_trips": {"state": "supported", "value": null, "numerator": 48, "denominator": null, "description": "Distinct 2025 REG drives with an offensive scrimmage play at the opponent 20 or closer"}, "goal_to_go_trips": {"state": "supported", "value": 0.5208333333333334, "numerator": 25, "denominator": 48, "description": "Red-zone trips containing a source-flagged goal-to-go play"}, "red_zone_td_conversion": {"state": "supported", "value": 0.5625, "numerator": 27, "denominator": 48, "description": "Red-zone trips containing a passing or rushing touchdown"}}, "subject": "team_direction", "boundary": "Prior observed team scoring-opportunity environment only; no 2026 role or touchdown probability is inferred.", "provenance": {"dataset": "play_by_play_2025.csv.gz", "provider": "nflverse", "source_url": "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2025.csv.gz", "source_hash": "2f135887790a013fd004e609e37096bb4816d5cc80b9f19122e1bad478961978"}, "defense_abbr": "LV", "offense_abbr": "MIA", "defense_allowed": {"red_zone_plays": {"state": "supported", "value": null, "numerator": 208, "denominator": null, "description": "Opponent pass or rush attempts at the 20 or closer"}, "red_zone_trips": {"state": "supported", "value": null, "numerator": 63, "denominator": null, "description": "Distinct opponent red-zone drives allowed"}, "goal_to_go_trips": {"state": "supported", "value": 0.5555555555555556, "numerator": 35, "denominator": 63, "description": "Allowed red-zone trips containing a source-flagged goal-to-go play"}, "red_zone_td_conversion": {"state": "supported", "value": 0.5873015873015873, "numerator": 37, "denominator": 63, "description": "Allowed red-zone trips containing a passing or rushing touchdown"}}}
- Contract Version
- nfl_scoring_opportunity_p9f_v2
- Content Hash
- e158b5522b97c57dfb8e2f8349197a75bb7b146f8f3b93f27c28a9a32868f7e6
- Derived At
- 2026-08-25 21:54:55
- Published At
- 2026-08-25 21:54:55
- Context
- State
- supported
- Sample
- Season
- 2025
- Season Type
- REG
- Defense Games
- 17
- Offense Games
- 17
- Offense
- Red Zone Plays
- State
- supported
- Value
- —
- Numerator
- 140
- Denominator
- —
- Description
- Pass or rush attempts at the opponent 20 or closer
- Red Zone Trips
- State
- supported
- Value
- —
- Numerator
- 48
- Denominator
- —
- Description
- Distinct 2025 REG drives with an offensive scrimmage play at the opponent 20 or closer
- Goal To Go Trips
- State
- supported
- Value
- 0.52083333333333
- Numerator
- 25
- Denominator
- 48
- Description
- Red-zone trips containing a source-flagged goal-to-go play
- Red Zone Td Conversion
- State
- supported
- Value
- 0.5625
- Numerator
- 27
- Denominator
- 48
- Description
- Red-zone trips containing a passing or rushing touchdown
- Subject
- team_direction
- Boundary
- Prior observed team scoring-opportunity environment only; no 2026 role or touchdown probability is inferred.
- Provenance
- Dataset
- play_by_play_2025.csv.gz
- Provider
- nflverse
- Source Url
- https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2025.csv.gz
- Source Hash
- 2f135887790a013fd004e609e37096bb4816d5cc80b9f19122e1bad478961978
- Defense Abbr
- LV
- Offense Abbr
- MIA
- Defense Allowed
- Red Zone Plays
- State
- supported
- Value
- —
- Numerator
- 208
- Denominator
- —
- Description
- Opponent pass or rush attempts at the 20 or closer
- Red Zone Trips
- State
- supported
- Value
- —
- Numerator
- 63
- Denominator
- —
- Description
- Distinct opponent red-zone drives allowed
- Goal To Go Trips
- State
- supported
- Value
- 0.55555555555556
- Numerator
- 35
- Denominator
- 63
- Description
- Allowed red-zone trips containing a source-flagged goal-to-go play
- Red Zone Td Conversion
- State
- supported
- Value
- 0.58730158730159
- Numerator
- 37
- Denominator
- 63
- Description
- Allowed red-zone trips containing a passing or rushing touchdown
- Player
- 1729
- Game Id
- 10527
- Subject Type
- player
- Subject Id
- 1729
- Team Id
- 52
- Opponent Team Id
- 49
- Context Json
- {"state": "supported", "sample": {"season": 2025, "season_type": "REG", "games_with_scoring_opportunity": 14}, "metrics": {"red_zone_targets": {"state": "supported", "value": null, "numerator": 11, "denominator": null, "description": "Pass attempts naming the player as receiver at the opponent 20 or closer"}, "red_zone_receptions": {"state": "supported", "value": 0.6363636363636364, "numerator": 7, "denominator": 11, "description": "Completed red-zone targets over red-zone targets"}, "inside_5_rush_attempts": {"state": "supported", "value": null, "numerator": 5, "denominator": null, "description": "Rush attempts at the opponent 5 or closer"}, "red_zone_rush_attempts": {"state": "supported", "value": null, "numerator": 32, "denominator": null, "description": "Rush attempts at the opponent 20 or closer"}, "inside_10_rush_attempts": {"state": "supported", "value": null, "numerator": 11, "denominator": null, "description": "Rush attempts at the opponent 10 or closer"}, "team_red_zone_rush_share": {"state": "supported", "value": 0.45714285714285713, "numerator": 32, "denominator": 70, "description": "Player red-zone rush attempts divided by team red-zone rush attempts"}, "team_red_zone_target_share": {"state": "supported", "value": 0.171875, "numerator": 11, "denominator": 64, "description": "Player red-zone targets divided by red-zone targets for the player's observed 2025 team(s)"}}, "subject": "player", "boundary": "2025 scoring-opportunity usage is prior observed evidence, not a guaranteed 2026 role, share, workload or touchdown probability.", "position": "RB", "provenance": {"dataset": "play_by_play_2025.csv.gz", "provider": "nflverse", "source_hash": "2f135887790a013fd004e609e37096bb4816d5cc80b9f19122e1bad478961978"}, "prior_teams": ["MIA"], "end_zone_targets": {"state": "unknown", "value": null, "reason": "nflverse PBP has no explicit end-zone-target flag; touchdown receptions are not treated as targets", "numerator": null, "denominator": null}}
- Contract Version
- nfl_scoring_opportunity_p9f_v2
- Content Hash
- ac93e9411e1f246524161a2d1a747892d084b77d7f4191cafcf10dfb9def983f
- Derived At
- 2026-08-25 21:55:58
- Published At
- 2026-08-25 21:55:58
- Context
- State
- supported
- Sample
- Season
- 2025
- Season Type
- REG
- Games With Scoring Opportunity
- 14
- Metrics
- Red Zone Targets
- State
- supported
- Value
- —
- Numerator
- 11
- Denominator
- —
- Description
- Pass attempts naming the player as receiver at the opponent 20 or closer
- Red Zone Receptions
- State
- supported
- Value
- 0.63636363636364
- Numerator
- 7
- Denominator
- 11
- Description
- Completed red-zone targets over red-zone targets
- Inside 5 Rush Attempts
- State
- supported
- Value
- —
- Numerator
- 5
- Denominator
- —
- Description
- Rush attempts at the opponent 5 or closer
- Red Zone Rush Attempts
- State
- supported
- Value
- —
- Numerator
- 32
- Denominator
- —
- Description
- Rush attempts at the opponent 20 or closer
- Inside 10 Rush Attempts
- State
- supported
- Value
- —
- Numerator
- 11
- Denominator
- —
- Description
- Rush attempts at the opponent 10 or closer
- Team Red Zone Rush Share
- State
- supported
- Value
- 0.45714285714286
- Numerator
- 32
- Denominator
- 70
- Description
- Player red-zone rush attempts divided by team red-zone rush attempts
- Team Red Zone Target Share
- State
- supported
- Value
- 0.171875
- Numerator
- 11
- Denominator
- 64
- Description
- Player red-zone targets divided by red-zone targets for the player's observed 2025 team(s)
- Subject
- player
- Boundary
- 2025 scoring-opportunity usage is prior observed evidence, not a guaranteed 2026 role, share, workload or touchdown probability.
- Position
- RB
- Provenance
- Dataset
- play_by_play_2025.csv.gz
- Provider
- nflverse
- Source Hash
- 2f135887790a013fd004e609e37096bb4816d5cc80b9f19122e1bad478961978
- Prior Teams
- 0
- MIA
- End Zone Targets
- State
- unknown
- Value
- —
- Reason
- nflverse PBP has no explicit end-zone-target flag; touchdown receptions are not treated as targets
- Numerator
- —
- Denominator
- —
- 1740
- Game Id
- 10527
- Subject Type
- player
- Subject Id
- 1740
- Team Id
- 52
- Opponent Team Id
- 49
- Context Json
- {"state": "supported", "sample": {"season": 2025, "season_type": "REG", "games_with_scoring_opportunity": 3}, "metrics": {"red_zone_targets": {"state": "supported", "value": null, "numerator": 6, "denominator": null, "description": "Pass attempts naming the player as receiver at the opponent 20 or closer"}, "red_zone_receptions": {"state": "supported", "value": 0.5, "numerator": 3, "denominator": 6, "description": "Completed red-zone targets over red-zone targets"}, "team_red_zone_target_share": {"state": "supported", "value": 0.09375, "numerator": 6, "denominator": 64, "description": "Player red-zone targets divided by red-zone targets for the player's observed 2025 team(s)"}}, "subject": "player", "boundary": "2025 scoring-opportunity usage is prior observed evidence, not a guaranteed 2026 role, share, workload or touchdown probability.", "position": "TE", "provenance": {"dataset": "play_by_play_2025.csv.gz", "provider": "nflverse", "source_hash": "2f135887790a013fd004e609e37096bb4816d5cc80b9f19122e1bad478961978"}, "prior_teams": ["MIA"], "end_zone_targets": {"state": "unknown", "value": null, "reason": "nflverse PBP has no explicit end-zone-target flag; touchdown receptions are not treated as targets", "numerator": null, "denominator": null}}
- Contract Version
- nfl_scoring_opportunity_p9f_v2
- Content Hash
- 036e96f456eea61840b660c5f985c3c42792b35393caf7aaf1d6c0f914205bf5
- Derived At
- 2026-08-25 21:55:58
- Published At
- 2026-08-25 21:55:58
- Context
- State
- supported
- Sample
- Season
- 2025
- Season Type
- REG
- Games With Scoring Opportunity
- 3
- Metrics
- Red Zone Targets
- State
- supported
- Value
- —
- Numerator
- 6
- Denominator
- —
- Description
- Pass attempts naming the player as receiver at the opponent 20 or closer
- Red Zone Receptions
- State
- supported
- Value
- 0.5
- Numerator
- 3
- Denominator
- 6
- Description
- Completed red-zone targets over red-zone targets
- Team Red Zone Target Share
- State
- supported
- Value
- 0.09375
- Numerator
- 6
- Denominator
- 64
- Description
- Player red-zone targets divided by red-zone targets for the player's observed 2025 team(s)
- Subject
- player
- Boundary
- 2025 scoring-opportunity usage is prior observed evidence, not a guaranteed 2026 role, share, workload or touchdown probability.
- Position
- TE
- Provenance
- Dataset
- play_by_play_2025.csv.gz
- Provider
- nflverse
- Source Hash
- 2f135887790a013fd004e609e37096bb4816d5cc80b9f19122e1bad478961978
- Prior Teams
- 0
- MIA
- End Zone Targets
- State
- unknown
- Value
- —
- Reason
- nflverse PBP has no explicit end-zone-target flag; touchdown receptions are not treated as targets
- Numerator
- —
- Denominator
- —
- 1743
- Game Id
- 10527
- Subject Type
- player
- Subject Id
- 1743
- Team Id
- 52
- Opponent Team Id
- 49
- Context Json
- {"state": "supported", "sample": {"season": 2025, "season_type": "REG", "games_with_scoring_opportunity": 2}, "metrics": {"red_zone_completions": {"state": "supported", "value": 0.6363636363636364, "numerator": 7, "denominator": 11, "description": "Completed red-zone passes over red-zone pass attempts"}, "red_zone_passing_tds": {"state": "supported", "value": 0.18181818181818185, "numerator": 2, "denominator": 11, "description": "Passing TD outcomes over red-zone pass attempts"}, "red_zone_interceptions": {"state": "supported", "value": 0.09090909090909093, "numerator": 1, "denominator": 11, "description": "Interception outcomes over red-zone pass attempts"}, "red_zone_pass_attempts": {"state": "supported", "value": null, "numerator": 11, "denominator": null, "description": "Pass attempts at the opponent 20 or closer"}, "red_zone_rush_attempts": {"state": "supported", "value": null, "numerator": 0, "denominator": null, "description": "QB rush attempts at the opponent 20 or closer"}}, "subject": "player", "boundary": "2025 scoring-opportunity usage is prior observed evidence, not a guaranteed 2026 role, share, workload or touchdown probability.", "position": "QB", "provenance": {"dataset": "play_by_play_2025.csv.gz", "provider": "nflverse", "source_hash": "2f135887790a013fd004e609e37096bb4816d5cc80b9f19122e1bad478961978"}, "prior_teams": ["MIA"], "end_zone_targets": {"state": "unknown", "value": null, "reason": "nflverse PBP has no explicit end-zone-target flag; touchdown receptions are not treated as targets", "numerator": null, "denominator": null}}
- Contract Version
- nfl_scoring_opportunity_p9f_v2
- Content Hash
- 4dbc0068c5eb37dec9f735c0710e55d660f28e9255ba3462bd3e788414b78eb0
- Derived At
- 2026-08-25 21:55:58
- Published At
- 2026-08-25 21:55:58
- Context
- State
- supported
- Sample
- Season
- 2025
- Season Type
- REG
- Games With Scoring Opportunity
- 2
- Metrics
- Red Zone Completions
- State
- supported
- Value
- 0.63636363636364
- Numerator
- 7
- Denominator
- 11
- Description
- Completed red-zone passes over red-zone pass attempts
- Red Zone Passing Tds
- State
- supported
- Value
- 0.18181818181818
- Numerator
- 2
- Denominator
- 11
- Description
- Passing TD outcomes over red-zone pass attempts
- Red Zone Interceptions
- State
- supported
- Value
- 0.090909090909091
- Numerator
- 1
- Denominator
- 11
- Description
- Interception outcomes over red-zone pass attempts
- Red Zone Pass Attempts
- State
- supported
- Value
- —
- Numerator
- 11
- Denominator
- —
- Description
- Pass attempts at the opponent 20 or closer
- Red Zone Rush Attempts
- State
- supported
- Value
- —
- Numerator
- 0
- Denominator
- —
- Description
- QB rush attempts at the opponent 20 or closer
- Subject
- player
- Boundary
- 2025 scoring-opportunity usage is prior observed evidence, not a guaranteed 2026 role, share, workload or touchdown probability.
- Position
- QB
- Provenance
- Dataset
- play_by_play_2025.csv.gz
- Provider
- nflverse
- Source Hash
- 2f135887790a013fd004e609e37096bb4816d5cc80b9f19122e1bad478961978
- Prior Teams
- 0
- MIA
- End Zone Targets
- State
- unknown
- Value
- —
- Reason
- nflverse PBP has no explicit end-zone-target flag; touchdown receptions are not treated as targets
- Numerator
- —
- Denominator
- —
- 1766
- Game Id
- 10527
- Subject Type
- player
- Subject Id
- 1766
- Team Id
- 52
- Opponent Team Id
- 49
- Context Json
- {"state": "supported", "sample": {"season": 2025, "season_type": "REG", "games_with_scoring_opportunity": 11}, "metrics": {"red_zone_targets": {"state": "supported", "value": null, "numerator": 11, "denominator": null, "description": "Pass attempts naming the player as receiver at the opponent 20 or closer"}, "red_zone_receptions": {"state": "supported", "value": 0.9090909090909092, "numerator": 10, "denominator": 11, "description": "Completed red-zone targets over red-zone targets"}, "team_red_zone_target_share": {"state": "supported", "value": 0.171875, "numerator": 11, "denominator": 64, "description": "Player red-zone targets divided by red-zone targets for the player's observed 2025 team(s)"}}, "subject": "player", "boundary": "2025 scoring-opportunity usage is prior observed evidence, not a guaranteed 2026 role, share, workload or touchdown probability.", "position": "WR", "provenance": {"dataset": "play_by_play_2025.csv.gz", "provider": "nflverse", "source_hash": "2f135887790a013fd004e609e37096bb4816d5cc80b9f19122e1bad478961978"}, "prior_teams": ["MIA"], "end_zone_targets": {"state": "unknown", "value": null, "reason": "nflverse PBP has no explicit end-zone-target flag; touchdown receptions are not treated as targets", "numerator": null, "denominator": null}}
- Contract Version
- nfl_scoring_opportunity_p9f_v2
- Content Hash
- 03a5ddd82222a71413f78029e7d9d97ae649b7c7c3a3b439039665c7585598e0
- Derived At
- 2026-08-25 21:55:58
- Published At
- 2026-08-25 21:55:58
- Context
- State
- supported
- Sample
- Season
- 2025
- Season Type
- REG
- Games With Scoring Opportunity
- 11
- Metrics
- Red Zone Targets
- State
- supported
- Value
- —
- Numerator
- 11
- Denominator
- —
- Description
- Pass attempts naming the player as receiver at the opponent 20 or closer
- Red Zone Receptions
- State
- supported
- Value
- 0.90909090909091
- Numerator
- 10
- Denominator
- 11
- Description
- Completed red-zone targets over red-zone targets
- Team Red Zone Target Share
- State
- supported
- Value
- 0.171875
- Numerator
- 11
- Denominator
- 64
- Description
- Player red-zone targets divided by red-zone targets for the player's observed 2025 team(s)
- Subject
- player
- Boundary
- 2025 scoring-opportunity usage is prior observed evidence, not a guaranteed 2026 role, share, workload or touchdown probability.
- Position
- WR
- Provenance
- Dataset
- play_by_play_2025.csv.gz
- Provider
- nflverse
- Source Hash
- 2f135887790a013fd004e609e37096bb4816d5cc80b9f19122e1bad478961978
- Prior Teams
- 0
- MIA
- End Zone Targets
- State
- unknown
- Value
- —
- Reason
- nflverse PBP has no explicit end-zone-target flag; touchdown receptions are not treated as targets
- Numerator
- —
- Denominator
- —
- 1767
- Game Id
- 10527
- Subject Type
- player
- Subject Id
- 1767
- Team Id
- 52
- Opponent Team Id
- 49
- Context Json
- {"state": "supported", "sample": {"season": 2025, "season_type": "REG", "games_with_scoring_opportunity": 1}, "metrics": {"red_zone_targets": {"state": "supported", "value": null, "numerator": 1, "denominator": null, "description": "Pass attempts naming the player as receiver at the opponent 20 or closer"}, "red_zone_receptions": {"state": "supported", "value": 1.0, "numerator": 1, "denominator": 1, "description": "Completed red-zone targets over red-zone targets"}, "team_red_zone_target_share": {"state": "supported", "value": 0.015625, "numerator": 1, "denominator": 64, "description": "Player red-zone targets divided by red-zone targets for the player's observed 2025 team(s)"}}, "subject": "player", "boundary": "2025 scoring-opportunity usage is prior observed evidence, not a guaranteed 2026 role, share, workload or touchdown probability.", "position": "WR", "provenance": {"dataset": "play_by_play_2025.csv.gz", "provider": "nflverse", "source_hash": "2f135887790a013fd004e609e37096bb4816d5cc80b9f19122e1bad478961978"}, "prior_teams": ["MIA"], "end_zone_targets": {"state": "unknown", "value": null, "reason": "nflverse PBP has no explicit end-zone-target flag; touchdown receptions are not treated as targets", "numerator": null, "denominator": null}}
- Contract Version
- nfl_scoring_opportunity_p9f_v2
- Content Hash
- aaa8db0f0679fb420276f62f92ecfc5b07ce558cbc92dce76369bd597968737d
- Derived At
- 2026-08-25 21:55:58
- Published At
- 2026-08-25 21:55:58
- Context
- State
- supported
- Sample
- Season
- 2025
- Season Type
- REG
- Games With Scoring Opportunity
- 1
- Metrics
- Red Zone Targets
- State
- supported
- Value
- —
- Numerator
- 1
- Denominator
- —
- Description
- Pass attempts naming the player as receiver at the opponent 20 or closer
- Red Zone Receptions
- State
- supported
- Value
- 1
- Numerator
- 1
- Denominator
- 1
- Description
- Completed red-zone targets over red-zone targets
- Team Red Zone Target Share
- State
- supported
- Value
- 0.015625
- Numerator
- 1
- Denominator
- 64
- Description
- Player red-zone targets divided by red-zone targets for the player's observed 2025 team(s)
- Subject
- player
- Boundary
- 2025 scoring-opportunity usage is prior observed evidence, not a guaranteed 2026 role, share, workload or touchdown probability.
- Position
- WR
- Provenance
- Dataset
- play_by_play_2025.csv.gz
- Provider
- nflverse
- Source Hash
- 2f135887790a013fd004e609e37096bb4816d5cc80b9f19122e1bad478961978
- Prior Teams
- 0
- MIA
- End Zone Targets
- State
- unknown
- Value
- —
- Reason
- nflverse PBP has no explicit end-zone-target flag; touchdown receptions are not treated as targets
- Numerator
- —
- Denominator
- —
- 1769
- Game Id
- 10527
- Subject Type
- player
- Subject Id
- 1769
- Team Id
- 52
- Opponent Team Id
- 49
- Context Json
- {"state": "supported", "sample": {"season": 2025, "season_type": "REG", "games_with_scoring_opportunity": 1}, "metrics": {"red_zone_targets": {"state": "supported", "value": null, "numerator": 1, "denominator": null, "description": "Pass attempts naming the player as receiver at the opponent 20 or closer"}, "red_zone_receptions": {"state": "supported", "value": 0.0, "numerator": 0, "denominator": 1, "description": "Completed red-zone targets over red-zone targets"}, "team_red_zone_target_share": {"state": "supported", "value": 0.015625, "numerator": 1, "denominator": 64, "description": "Player red-zone targets divided by red-zone targets for the player's observed 2025 team(s)"}}, "subject": "player", "boundary": "2025 scoring-opportunity usage is prior observed evidence, not a guaranteed 2026 role, share, workload or touchdown probability.", "position": "WR", "provenance": {"dataset": "play_by_play_2025.csv.gz", "provider": "nflverse", "source_hash": "2f135887790a013fd004e609e37096bb4816d5cc80b9f19122e1bad478961978"}, "prior_teams": ["MIA"], "end_zone_targets": {"state": "unknown", "value": null, "reason": "nflverse PBP has no explicit end-zone-target flag; touchdown receptions are not treated as targets", "numerator": null, "denominator": null}}
- Contract Version
- nfl_scoring_opportunity_p9f_v2
- Content Hash
- 228be6451993922db87829f96b6bbd7015b88a84970bfd3924fc459f2b4ab768
- Derived At
- 2026-08-25 21:55:58
- Published At
- 2026-08-25 21:55:58
- Context
- State
- supported
- Sample
- Season
- 2025
- Season Type
- REG
- Games With Scoring Opportunity
- 1
- Metrics
- Red Zone Targets
- State
- supported
- Value
- —
- Numerator
- 1
- Denominator
- —
- Description
- Pass attempts naming the player as receiver at the opponent 20 or closer
- Red Zone Receptions
- State
- supported
- Value
- 0
- Numerator
- 0
- Denominator
- 1
- Description
- Completed red-zone targets over red-zone targets
- Team Red Zone Target Share
- State
- supported
- Value
- 0.015625
- Numerator
- 1
- Denominator
- 64
- Description
- Player red-zone targets divided by red-zone targets for the player's observed 2025 team(s)
- Subject
- player
- Boundary
- 2025 scoring-opportunity usage is prior observed evidence, not a guaranteed 2026 role, share, workload or touchdown probability.
- Position
- WR
- Provenance
- Dataset
- play_by_play_2025.csv.gz
- Provider
- nflverse
- Source Hash
- 2f135887790a013fd004e609e37096bb4816d5cc80b9f19122e1bad478961978
- Prior Teams
- 0
- MIA
- End Zone Targets
- State
- unknown
- Value
- —
- Reason
- nflverse PBP has no explicit end-zone-target flag; touchdown receptions are not treated as targets
- Numerator
- —
- Denominator
- —
- 1771
- Game Id
- 10527
- Subject Type
- player
- Subject Id
- 1771
- Team Id
- 52
- Opponent Team Id
- 49
- Context Json
- {"state": "supported", "sample": {"season": 2025, "season_type": "REG", "games_with_scoring_opportunity": 4}, "metrics": {"red_zone_targets": {"state": "supported", "value": null, "numerator": 0, "denominator": null, "description": "Pass attempts naming the player as receiver at the opponent 20 or closer"}, "red_zone_receptions": {"state": "supported", "value": null, "numerator": 0, "denominator": 0, "description": "Completed red-zone targets over red-zone targets"}, "inside_5_rush_attempts": {"state": "supported", "value": null, "numerator": 4, "denominator": null, "description": "Rush attempts at the opponent 5 or closer"}, "red_zone_rush_attempts": {"state": "supported", "value": null, "numerator": 12, "denominator": null, "description": "Rush attempts at the opponent 20 or closer"}, "inside_10_rush_attempts": {"state": "supported", "value": null, "numerator": 6, "denominator": null, "description": "Rush attempts at the opponent 10 or closer"}, "team_red_zone_rush_share": {"state": "supported", "value": 0.17142857142857143, "numerator": 12, "denominator": 70, "description": "Player red-zone rush attempts divided by team red-zone rush attempts"}, "team_red_zone_target_share": {"state": "supported", "value": 0.0, "numerator": 0, "denominator": 64, "description": "Player red-zone targets divided by red-zone targets for the player's observed 2025 team(s)"}}, "subject": "player", "boundary": "2025 scoring-opportunity usage is prior observed evidence, not a guaranteed 2026 role, share, workload or touchdown probability.", "position": "RB", "provenance": {"dataset": "play_by_play_2025.csv.gz", "provider": "nflverse", "source_hash": "2f135887790a013fd004e609e37096bb4816d5cc80b9f19122e1bad478961978"}, "prior_teams": ["MIA"], "end_zone_targets": {"state": "unknown", "value": null, "reason": "nflverse PBP has no explicit end-zone-target flag; touchdown receptions are not treated as targets", "numerator": null, "denominator": null}}
- Contract Version
- nfl_scoring_opportunity_p9f_v2
- Content Hash
- 5240faba68a62b9425c782b3b6d39109a78b5008615229f8cd9760fd84f5200e
- Derived At
- 2026-08-25 21:55:58
- Published At
- 2026-08-25 21:55:58
- Context
- State
- supported
- Sample
- Season
- 2025
- Season Type
- REG
- Games With Scoring Opportunity
- 4
- Metrics
- Red Zone Targets
- State
- supported
- Value
- —
- Numerator
- 0
- Denominator
- —
- Description
- Pass attempts naming the player as receiver at the opponent 20 or closer
- Red Zone Receptions
- State
- supported
- Value
- —
- Numerator
- 0
- Denominator
- 0
- Description
- Completed red-zone targets over red-zone targets
- Inside 5 Rush Attempts
- State
- supported
- Value
- —
- Numerator
- 4
- Denominator
- —
- Description
- Rush attempts at the opponent 5 or closer
- Red Zone Rush Attempts
- State
- supported
- Value
- —
- Numerator
- 12
- Denominator
- —
- Description
- Rush attempts at the opponent 20 or closer
- Inside 10 Rush Attempts
- State
- supported
- Value
- —
- Numerator
- 6
- Denominator
- —
- Description
- Rush attempts at the opponent 10 or closer
- Team Red Zone Rush Share
- State
- supported
- Value
- 0.17142857142857
- Numerator
- 12
- Denominator
- 70
- Description
- Player red-zone rush attempts divided by team red-zone rush attempts
- Team Red Zone Target Share
- State
- supported
- Value
- 0
- Numerator
- 0
- Denominator
- 64
- Description
- Player red-zone targets divided by red-zone targets for the player's observed 2025 team(s)
- Subject
- player
- Boundary
- 2025 scoring-opportunity usage is prior observed evidence, not a guaranteed 2026 role, share, workload or touchdown probability.
- Position
- RB
- Provenance
- Dataset
- play_by_play_2025.csv.gz
- Provider
- nflverse
- Source Hash
- 2f135887790a013fd004e609e37096bb4816d5cc80b9f19122e1bad478961978
- Prior Teams
- 0
- MIA
- End Zone Targets
- State
- unknown
- Value
- —
- Reason
- nflverse PBP has no explicit end-zone-target flag; touchdown receptions are not treated as targets
- Numerator
- —
- Denominator
- —
- Matchup Context
- State
- supported
- Game Id
- 10527
- Position
- RB
- Role
- State
- supported_current_official_depth
- Label
- RB2
- Depth Rank
- 2
- Boundary
- Official depth is role context; it does not establish starter status, snap share or workload share.
- Availability
- State
- not_yet_available
- Headline
- —
- Boundary
- Unknown, not-yet-available and reserve-unknown are not healthy, active, available or reduced-usage conclusions.
- Prior Role
- State
- unknown
- Offense Pct
- —
- Derived Role
- —
- Evidence Label
- no_prior_observed_role
- Boundary
- Backward-looking observed workload does not establish current workload or starter status.
- Projection
- Basis
- model_imputed_baseline
- Boundary
- P9 matchup environments explain context only and do not change the accepted P5 player projection.
- Unit
- Game Id
- 10527
- Offense Team Id
- 49
- Defense Team Id
- 52
- Offense Abbr
- LV
- Defense Abbr
- MIA
- Pressure Json
- {"state": "unknown", "reason": "Retained nflverse player statistics include QB hits but not total pressure events; QB hits are not relabeled as pressures."}
- Sack Json
- {"edge": "defense", "state": "supported", "defense": {"rate": 0.0703971119133574, "sacks": 39.0, "opponent_dropbacks": 554.0, "league_rank_high_is_best": 16}, "offense": {"rate": 0.11053540587219345, "dropbacks": 579.0, "sacks_allowed": 64.0, "league_rank_low_is_best": 32}, "denominator": "QB dropbacks = pass attempts + sacks suffered", "league_medians": {"defense_sack_rate": 0.06745662047280773, "offense_sack_rate": 0.06683513419309864}}
- Run Json
- {"edge": "mixed", "state": "supported", "defense": {"opponent_carries": 469.0, "opponent_rush_yards": 2251.0, "league_rank_low_is_best": 28, "yards_per_carry_allowed": 4.79957356076759}, "offense": {"carries": 369.0, "rush_yards": 1317.0, "yards_per_carry": 3.569105691056911, "league_rank_high_is_best": 32}, "denominator": "Retained player carries; rushing yards divided by carries", "league_medians": {"offense_yards_per_carry": 4.319816463259086, "defense_yards_per_carry_allowed": 4.29079863438525}}
- Sample Basis
- 2025 REG nflverse weekly player statistics; full retained team schedule
- Provenance Json
- {"table": "pardonme_warehouse.nfl_player_week_statistics", "season": 2025, "provider": "nflverse", "season_type": "REG", "source_hash": "96ed9fc2342cce01f3535f89b0edffc1e317ed2d2a210c163172560ecef4f94f"}
- Missingness Json
- {"pressure_rate": "unknown_total_pressure_events_not_retained", "individual_ol_assignments": "unknown", "current_replacement_effect": "unknown_not_inferred_from_depth_or_availability", "pressures_allowed_by_lineman": "unknown"}
- Confidence
- supported_prior_season_team_aggregate
- Explanation
- LV protection allowed 64.0 sacks on 579 dropbacks (11.1%, league rank 32/32 with low rate best); MIA produced 39.0 sacks on 554 opponent dropbacks (7.0%, rank 16/32 with high rate best). On the ground, LV averaged 3.57 yards per carry and MIA allowed 4.80. Pressure rate remains Unknown because total pressure events are not retained.
- Contract Version
- nfl_unit_matchup_p9a_v1
- Content Hash
- 95b0f318cb790c9cc28700a92d25939bc4cdd04595dc0c8ca5eb62bb3d9fbf84
- Derived At
- 2026-08-24 19:05:02
- Published At
- 2026-08-24 19:05:02
- Pressure
- State
- unknown
- Reason
- Retained nflverse player statistics include QB hits but not total pressure events; QB hits are not relabeled as pressures.
- Sack
- Edge
- defense
- State
- supported
- Defense
- Rate
- 0.070397111913357
- Sacks
- 39
- Opponent Dropbacks
- 554
- League Rank High Is Best
- 16
- Offense
- Rate
- 0.11053540587219
- Dropbacks
- 579
- Sacks Allowed
- 64
- League Rank Low Is Best
- 32
- Denominator
- QB dropbacks = pass attempts + sacks suffered
- League Medians
- Defense Sack Rate
- 0.067456620472808
- Offense Sack Rate
- 0.066835134193099
- Run
- Edge
- mixed
- State
- supported
- Defense
- Opponent Carries
- 469
- Opponent Rush Yards
- 2251
- League Rank Low Is Best
- 28
- Yards Per Carry Allowed
- 4.7995735607676
- Offense
- Carries
- 369
- Rush Yards
- 1317
- Yards Per Carry
- 3.5691056910569
- League Rank High Is Best
- 32
- Denominator
- Retained player carries; rushing yards divided by carries
- League Medians
- Offense Yards Per Carry
- 4.3198164632591
- Defense Yards Per Carry Allowed
- 4.2907986343852
- Provenance
- Table
- pardonme_warehouse.nfl_player_week_statistics
- Season
- 2025
- Provider
- nflverse
- Season Type
- REG
- Source Hash
- 96ed9fc2342cce01f3535f89b0edffc1e317ed2d2a210c163172560ecef4f94f
- Missingness
- Pressure Rate
- unknown_total_pressure_events_not_retained
- Individual Ol Assignments
- unknown
- Current Replacement Effect
- unknown_not_inferred_from_depth_or_availability
- Pressures Allowed By Lineman
- unknown
- Passing
- Game Id
- 10527
- Offense Team Id
- 49
- Defense Team Id
- 52
- Offense Abbr
- LV
- Defense Abbr
- MIA
- Completion Json
- {"edge": "offense", "state": "supported", "defense": {"value": 0.7203883495145631, "numerator": 371.0, "league_rank": 32, "opponent_attempts": 515.0}, "offense": {"value": 0.6601941747572816, "attempts": 515.0, "numerator": 340.0, "league_rank": 11}, "denominator": "completions / pass attempts", "league_teams": 32, "league_medians": {"defense": 0.6470757053954443, "offense": 0.6443706063268893}}
- Efficiency Json
- {"edge": "mixed", "state": "supported", "defense": {"value": 7.611650485436893, "numerator": 3920.0, "league_rank": 26, "opponent_attempts": 515.0}, "offense": {"value": 6.436893203883495, "attempts": 515.0, "numerator": 3315.0, "league_rank": 27}, "denominator": "passing yards / pass attempts", "league_teams": 32, "league_medians": {"defense": 7.041235616438357, "offense": 6.941278879916052}}
- Touchdown Json
- {"edge": "mixed", "state": "supported", "defense": {"value": 0.05631067961165048, "numerator": 29.0, "league_rank": 26, "opponent_attempts": 515.0}, "offense": {"value": 0.03883495145631067, "attempts": 515.0, "numerator": 20.0, "league_rank": 26}, "denominator": "passing touchdowns / pass attempts", "league_teams": 32, "league_medians": {"defense": 0.04644643781266172, "offense": 0.04659846191321293}}
- Interception Json
- {"edge": "mixed", "state": "supported", "defense": {"value": 0.017475728155339806, "numerator": 9.0, "league_rank": 23, "opponent_attempts": 515.0}, "offense": {"value": 0.036893203883495145, "attempts": 515.0, "numerator": 19.0, "league_rank": 30}, "denominator": "passing interceptions / pass attempts", "league_teams": 32, "league_medians": {"defense": 0.02121271115370792, "offense": 0.02025329436496949}}
- Explosive Json
- {"edge": "mixed", "state": "supported", "defense": {"value": 0.09902912621359224, "numerator": 51.0, "league_rank": 25, "opponent_attempts": 515.0}, "offense": {"value": 0.07184466019417475, "attempts": 515.0, "numerator": 37.0, "league_rank": 29}, "denominator": "retained nflverse 20+ yard passing plays / pass attempts", "league_teams": 32, "league_medians": {"defense": 0.08874977674584747, "offense": 0.08576318929598403}}
- Advanced Json
- {"epa": "unknown_incomplete_and_aggregation_semantics_not_governed", "cpoe": "unknown_incomplete_and_aggregation_semantics_not_governed", "state": "unknown", "reason": "EPA/CPOE are activity-dependent and incomplete in retained rows; success rate and 2025 REG PBP are not retained.", "success_rate": "unknown_not_retained_in_2025_weekly_player_facts"}
- Coverage Json
- {"man_zone_rate": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence", "cb_wr_assignment": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence", "separation_allowed": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence", "target_specific_coverage": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence", "individual_defender_grade": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence"}
- Sample Basis
- 2025 REG nflverse weekly player statistics; full retained team schedule
- Provenance Json
- {"table": "pardonme_warehouse.nfl_player_week_statistics", "season": 2025, "provider": "nflverse", "season_type": "REG", "source_hash": "96ed9fc2342cce01f3535f89b0edffc1e317ed2d2a210c163172560ecef4f94f"}
- Missingness Json
- {"advanced": {"epa": "unknown_incomplete_and_aggregation_semantics_not_governed", "cpoe": "unknown_incomplete_and_aggregation_semantics_not_governed", "state": "unknown", "reason": "EPA/CPOE are activity-dependent and incomplete in retained rows; success rate and 2025 REG PBP are not retained.", "success_rate": "unknown_not_retained_in_2025_weekly_player_facts"}, "coverage": {"man_zone_rate": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence", "cb_wr_assignment": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence", "separation_allowed": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence", "target_specific_coverage": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence", "individual_defender_grade": "unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence"}}
- Confidence
- supported_prior_season_team_passing_aggregate
- Explanation
- completion: LV passing-offense advantage; efficiency: mixed evidence; touchdown: mixed evidence; interception: mixed evidence; explosive: mixed evidence.
- Contract Version
- nfl_passing_matchup_p9c_v1
- Content Hash
- 795b4a7c008048d283e4af40abb46a0423628faf2b5718f9ba109f7175e98c2f
- Derived At
- 2026-08-25 05:06:49
- Published At
- 2026-08-25 05:06:49
- Completion
- Edge
- offense
- State
- supported
- Defense
- Value
- 0.72038834951456
- Numerator
- 371
- League Rank
- 32
- Opponent Attempts
- 515
- Offense
- Value
- 0.66019417475728
- Attempts
- 515
- Numerator
- 340
- League Rank
- 11
- Denominator
- completions / pass attempts
- League Teams
- 32
- League Medians
- Defense
- 0.64707570539544
- Offense
- 0.64437060632689
- Efficiency
- Edge
- mixed
- State
- supported
- Defense
- Value
- 7.6116504854369
- Numerator
- 3920
- League Rank
- 26
- Opponent Attempts
- 515
- Offense
- Value
- 6.4368932038835
- Attempts
- 515
- Numerator
- 3315
- League Rank
- 27
- Denominator
- passing yards / pass attempts
- League Teams
- 32
- League Medians
- Defense
- 7.0412356164384
- Offense
- 6.9412788799161
- Touchdown
- Edge
- mixed
- State
- supported
- Defense
- Value
- 0.05631067961165
- Numerator
- 29
- League Rank
- 26
- Opponent Attempts
- 515
- Offense
- Value
- 0.038834951456311
- Attempts
- 515
- Numerator
- 20
- League Rank
- 26
- Denominator
- passing touchdowns / pass attempts
- League Teams
- 32
- League Medians
- Defense
- 0.046446437812662
- Offense
- 0.046598461913213
- Interception
- Edge
- mixed
- State
- supported
- Defense
- Value
- 0.01747572815534
- Numerator
- 9
- League Rank
- 23
- Opponent Attempts
- 515
- Offense
- Value
- 0.036893203883495
- Attempts
- 515
- Numerator
- 19
- League Rank
- 30
- Denominator
- passing interceptions / pass attempts
- League Teams
- 32
- League Medians
- Defense
- 0.021212711153708
- Offense
- 0.020253294364969
- Explosive
- Edge
- mixed
- State
- supported
- Defense
- Value
- 0.099029126213592
- Numerator
- 51
- League Rank
- 25
- Opponent Attempts
- 515
- Offense
- Value
- 0.071844660194175
- Attempts
- 515
- Numerator
- 37
- League Rank
- 29
- Denominator
- retained nflverse 20+ yard passing plays / pass attempts
- League Teams
- 32
- League Medians
- Defense
- 0.088749776745847
- Offense
- 0.085763189295984
- Advanced
- Epa
- unknown_incomplete_and_aggregation_semantics_not_governed
- Cpoe
- unknown_incomplete_and_aggregation_semantics_not_governed
- State
- unknown
- Reason
- EPA/CPOE are activity-dependent and incomplete in retained rows; success rate and 2025 REG PBP are not retained.
- Success Rate
- unknown_not_retained_in_2025_weekly_player_facts
- Coverage
- Man Zone Rate
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Cb Wr Assignment
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Separation Allowed
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Target Specific Coverage
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Individual Defender Grade
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Provenance
- Table
- pardonme_warehouse.nfl_player_week_statistics
- Season
- 2025
- Provider
- nflverse
- Season Type
- REG
- Source Hash
- 96ed9fc2342cce01f3535f89b0edffc1e317ed2d2a210c163172560ecef4f94f
- Missingness
- Advanced
- Epa
- unknown_incomplete_and_aggregation_semantics_not_governed
- Cpoe
- unknown_incomplete_and_aggregation_semantics_not_governed
- State
- unknown
- Reason
- EPA/CPOE are activity-dependent and incomplete in retained rows; success rate and 2025 REG PBP are not retained.
- Success Rate
- unknown_not_retained_in_2025_weekly_player_facts
- Coverage
- Man Zone Rate
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Cb Wr Assignment
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Separation Allowed
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Target Specific Coverage
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Individual Defender Grade
- unknown_team_aggregate_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Scoring Opportunity
- Player
- State
- unknown
- Reason
- No supported prior scoring-opportunity evidence
- Team Matchup
- State
- supported
- Sample
- Season
- 2025
- Season Type
- REG
- Defense Games
- 17
- Offense Games
- 15
- Offense
- Red Zone Plays
- State
- supported
- Value
- —
- Numerator
- 114
- Denominator
- —
- Description
- Pass or rush attempts at the opponent 20 or closer
- Red Zone Trips
- State
- supported
- Value
- —
- Numerator
- 37
- Denominator
- —
- Description
- Distinct 2025 REG drives with an offensive scrimmage play at the opponent 20 or closer
- Goal To Go Trips
- State
- supported
- Value
- 0.45945945945946
- Numerator
- 17
- Denominator
- 37
- Description
- Red-zone trips containing a source-flagged goal-to-go play
- Red Zone Td Conversion
- State
- supported
- Value
- 0.48648648648649
- Numerator
- 18
- Denominator
- 37
- Description
- Red-zone trips containing a passing or rushing touchdown
- Subject
- team_direction
- Boundary
- Prior observed team scoring-opportunity environment only; no 2026 role or touchdown probability is inferred.
- Provenance
- Dataset
- play_by_play_2025.csv.gz
- Provider
- nflverse
- Source Url
- https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2025.csv.gz
- Source Hash
- 2f135887790a013fd004e609e37096bb4816d5cc80b9f19122e1bad478961978
- Defense Abbr
- MIA
- Offense Abbr
- LV
- Defense Allowed
- Red Zone Plays
- State
- supported
- Value
- —
- Numerator
- 162
- Denominator
- —
- Description
- Opponent pass or rush attempts at the 20 or closer
- Red Zone Trips
- State
- supported
- Value
- —
- Numerator
- 62
- Denominator
- —
- Description
- Distinct opponent red-zone drives allowed
- Goal To Go Trips
- State
- supported
- Value
- 0.45161290322581
- Numerator
- 28
- Denominator
- 62
- Description
- Allowed red-zone trips containing a source-flagged goal-to-go play
- Red Zone Td Conversion
- State
- supported
- Value
- 0.62903225806452
- Numerator
- 39
- Denominator
- 62
- Description
- Allowed red-zone trips containing a passing or rushing touchdown
- Boundary
- Prior 2025 scoring-opportunity evidence is explanation only and does not change P5 or calculate touchdown probability.
- Individual Coverage
- unknown_team_environment_is_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Replacement Effect
- unknown_not_inferred_from_depth_or_availability
- Primary Context
- 0
- run
- Broader Context
- 0
- passing
- Individual Blocking Assignment
- unknown_team_run_environment_is_not_individual_assignment_evidence
- Boundary
- Team run environment does not infer carry share, target share, starter status, snap share, blocking assignment or replacement effect.
These are explanation-only values. Pressure, individual assignments, coverage and replacement effects remain unavailable unless retained above.
Sources & Methodology
Official depth, provider box scores, governed fantasy serving, EA ratings, PardonMe projections, matchup context and market comparisons retain source lineage. Markets are not model inputs.
Methodology: P5 is read-only workload and fantasy serving. P10 distributions are independent, governed models. P9 context and Madden analysis explain rather than adjust them. Missing, insufficient, conflicting, stale, or unsupported evidence remains unavailable.
Provenance: nflverse season totals, provider game evidence, official availability/depth, EA ratings and dated observations are shown with their retained fields above.