Right now
RoleWR1Official depth chart
StatusUnknown
AvailabilityNo confirmed injury/status update yet.Unknown does not mean healthy or active.
SeasonProduction unavailable
PardonMe this weekvs SF · Sun Sep 20 · 8:25 PM
Targets4.8
Receptions3.0
Rec yards41
TD chance20%
Full-PPR8.5
Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence · Full-PPR range 0.8–16.2
Today
Matchupvs SF · Active Nfi
Role and prior workload— · backward-looking, not a starter or share inference
Projected targets5.3
ProjectionIndividualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence · 80% Full-PPR 0.8–16.2
Matchup explanation
Team pass defense is not a CB assignment, separation, man/zone matchup or individual defender grade. No target or workload effect is inferred. Pressure, individual coverage and replacement effects remain unavailable.
- Current Role
- State
- available
- Team Abbr
- MIA
- Depth Rank
- 1
- Position Code
- WR
- Depth Position
- WR
- Evidence Label
- current_2026_official_preseason_depth
- Roster Membership
- roster_observed
- Formal Roster Status
- active
- Source Manifest Hash
- b4667e78dad037cd46e5c512457ffa90f9093595957acfb5e7a973800eae1cf6
- Prior Observed Role
- State
- unknown
- Game Id
- —
- Team Abbr
- —
- Depth Rank
- —
- Defense Pct
- —
- Offense Pct
- —
- Season Type
- —
- Season Year
- —
- Week Number
- —
- Derived Role
- —
- Starter State
- —
- Evidence Label
- no_prior_observed_role
- Special Teams Pct
- —
- Source Manifest Hash
- —
- Role Continuity Games
- —
- Context
- State
- unknown
- Game Id
- 10546
- Position
- WR
- Role
- State
- supported_current_official_depth
- Label
- WR1
- Depth Rank
- 1
- Boundary
- Official depth is role context; it does not establish starter status, snap share or workload share.
- Availability
- State
- active_nfi
- Headline
- —
- Boundary
- Unknown, not-yet-available and reserve-unknown are not healthy, active, available or reduced-usage conclusions.
- Prior Role
- State
- unknown
- Offense Pct
- —
- Derived Role
- —
- Evidence Label
- no_prior_observed_role
- Boundary
- Backward-looking observed workload does not establish current workload or starter status.
- Projection
- Basis
- evidence_backed_individualized_projection
- Boundary
- P9 matchup environments explain context only and do not change the accepted P5 player projection.
- Unit
- —
- Passing
- —
- Scoring Opportunity
- Player
- State
- unknown
- Reason
- No supported prior scoring-opportunity evidence
- Team Matchup
- State
- unknown
- Reason
- No supported prior team scoring-opportunity evidence
- Boundary
- Prior 2025 scoring-opportunity evidence is explanation only and does not change P5 or calculate touchdown probability.
- Individual Coverage
- unknown_team_environment_is_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Replacement Effect
- unknown_not_inferred_from_depth_or_availability
- Primary Context
- 0
- passing
- Broader Context
- 0
- sack
- Boundary
- Team pass defense is not a CB assignment, separation, man/zone matchup or individual defender grade. No target or workload effect is inferred.
Current touchdown outlook
20.4% anytime TD. Correlation is explanation only.
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 2
- Game Id
- 10546
- Player Id
- 1732
- Team Id
- 52
- Opponent Team Id
- 60
- Position Code
- WR
- Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Support State
- supported_anytime
- Projection State
- fallback
- Anytime Probability
- 0.2043000000
- Exactly One Probability
- 0.1744500000
- Two Plus Probability
- 0.0298500000
- Probability Json
- {"p_0": 0.7957, "p_1": 0.17445, "p_2_plus": 0.02985, "p_anytime": 0.2043, "multi_td_support": "supported"}
- Lineage Json
- {"p5_week_hash": "a2254ba8c0a3d262499ea5e2bb07d419b91aa632dd74faa1ca8d39f91285e627", "draw_contract": "P10 marginal summary only; cross-player draw indices are never aligned", "evidence_version": "nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1", "p10_content_hash": "2b8724c5d6cfe2dcba46717befb4948db77cf1e21184c3d91b3b8166b56fb06c", "p10_model_version": "nfl_p10c_wrte_empirical_v1", "selection_version": "nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1", "availability_state": "unknown", "joint_model_version": "nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1", "market_is_model_input": false}
- Content Hash
- a0cd79bcdfafc21eaf74db50258805c6ce4e3f696a42a6f9a318a8d46a78be03
- Observed At
- 2026-09-17 23:48:31
- Generated At
- 2026-09-18 00:03:07
- Published At
- 2026-09-18 00:03:07
- Probability
- P 0
- 0.7957
- P 1
- 0.17445
- P 2 Plus
- 0.02985
- P Anytime
- 0.2043
- Multi Td Support
- supported
- Lineage
- P5 Week Hash
- a2254ba8c0a3d262499ea5e2bb07d419b91aa632dd74faa1ca8d39f91285e627
- Draw Contract
- P10 marginal summary only; cross-player draw indices are never aligned
- Evidence Version
- nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1
- P10 Content Hash
- 2b8724c5d6cfe2dcba46717befb4948db77cf1e21184c3d91b3b8166b56fb06c
- P10 Model Version
- nfl_p10c_wrte_empirical_v1
- Selection Version
- nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1
- Availability State
- unknown
- Joint Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Market Is Model Input
Touchdown Connections
Chris Bell + Malik Willis · Supported Empirical Dependence
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 2
- Game Id
- 10546
- Player A Id
- 1732
- Player B Id
- 1770
- Event A Kind
- scorer_td
- Event B Kind
- passing_td
- Relationship Class
- qb_pass_receiver
- Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Support State
- supported_empirical_dependence
- Projection State
- fallback
- Player A Probability
- 0.2043000000
- Player B Probability
- 0.7026500000
- Both Probability
- 0.1910428249
- Either Probability
- 0.7159071751
- Exactly One Probability
- 0.5248643501
- Neither Probability
- 0.2840928249
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.2718890272
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.9351092752
- Naive Probability
- 0.1435513950
- Absolute Difference
- 0.0474914299
- Relative Difference
- 0.3308322426
- Dependence Direction
- positive
- Probability Json
- {"p_a": 0.2043, "p_b": 0.70265, "both": 0.1910428249334595, "a_only": 0.013257175066540504, "b_only": 0.5116071750665405, "either": 0.7159071750665406, "neither": 0.28409282493345955, "simulation": {"seed": 1066667488, "draw_count": 20000, "simulated_both": 0.19215, "absolute_error_from_analytic": 0.0011071750665404834}, "exactly_one": 0.524864350133081, "naive_independence": 0.143551395, "absolute_difference": 0.047491429933459506, "relative_difference": 0.33083224258085064, "dependence_direction": "positive", "conditional_a_given_b": 0.27188902715926777, "conditional_b_given_a": 0.9351092752494348}
- Explanation Json
- {"short": "A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.", "football_structure": "A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.", "dependence_direction": "positive"}
- Lineage Json
- {"p10_a": {"content_hash": "2b8724c5d6cfe2dcba46717befb4948db77cf1e21184c3d91b3b8166b56fb06c", "model_version": "nfl_p10c_wrte_empirical_v1"}, "p10_b": {"content_hash": "0aa9ebf53b6356c3d984ac74eb3e60669c48fa3e2a24dab76b0886f32caccdd4", "model_version": "nfl_p10a_qb_signals_v1"}, "odds_ratio": 8.002089024495183, "pair_order": "ascending canonical player_id", "p5_week_hash": "d29eadad3b5c88c27d20fafd4be6fa1d5fbe0b44036b8dc0bd9f724b5849a09a", "evidence_version": "nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1", "selection_version": "nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1", "selected_candidate": "class_or_shrink_5000", "joint_model_version": "nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1", "market_is_model_input": false, "cross_player_p10_draw_alignment": "prohibited"}
- Content Hash
- 5e6bf57decef73fc0d1e79680cd3cc0c6dc8c99cf0312cee6d3b00c1a6355394
- Observed At
- 2026-09-17 23:48:31
- Generated At
- 2026-09-18 00:03:07
- Published At
- 2026-09-18 00:03:07
- Player A Name
- Chris Bell
- Player B Name
- Malik Willis
- Probability
- P A
- 0.2043
- P B
- 0.70265
- Both
- 0.19104282493346
- A Only
- 0.013257175066541
- B Only
- 0.51160717506654
- Either
- 0.71590717506654
- Neither
- 0.28409282493346
- Simulation
- Seed
- 1066667488
- Draw Count
- 20000
- Simulated Both
- 0.19215
- Absolute Error From Analytic
- 0.0011071750665405
- Exactly One
- 0.52486435013308
- Naive Independence
- 0.143551395
- Absolute Difference
- 0.04749142993346
- Relative Difference
- 0.33083224258085
- Dependence Direction
- positive
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.27188902715927
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.93510927524943
- Explanation
- Short
- A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.
- Football Structure
- A receiving touchdown is structurally connected to the quarterback's passing-TD environment.
- Dependence Direction
- positive
- Lineage
- P10 A
- Content Hash
- 2b8724c5d6cfe2dcba46717befb4948db77cf1e21184c3d91b3b8166b56fb06c
- Model Version
- nfl_p10c_wrte_empirical_v1
- P10 B
- Content Hash
- 0aa9ebf53b6356c3d984ac74eb3e60669c48fa3e2a24dab76b0886f32caccdd4
- Model Version
- nfl_p10a_qb_signals_v1
- Odds Ratio
- 8.0020890244952
- Pair Order
- ascending canonical player_id
- P5 Week Hash
- d29eadad3b5c88c27d20fafd4be6fa1d5fbe0b44036b8dc0bd9f724b5849a09a
- Evidence Version
- nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1
- Selection Version
- nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1
- Selected Candidate
- class_or_shrink_5000
- Joint Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Market Is Model Input
- Cross Player P10 Draw Alignment
- prohibited
De'Von Achane + Chris Bell · Supported Empirical Dependence
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 2
- Game Id
- 10546
- Player A Id
- 1729
- Player B Id
- 1732
- Event A Kind
- scorer_td
- Event B Kind
- scorer_td
- Relationship Class
- same_team_rb_wr
- Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Support State
- supported_empirical_dependence
- Projection State
- fallback
- Player A Probability
- 0.3403500000
- Player B Probability
- 0.2043000000
- Both Probability
- 0.0646914615
- Either Probability
- 0.4799585385
- Exactly One Probability
- 0.4152670769
- Neither Probability
- 0.5200414615
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.3166493467
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.1900733408
- Naive Probability
- 0.0695335050
- Absolute Difference
- -0.0048420435
- Relative Difference
- -0.0696361196
- Dependence Direction
- approximately_neutral
- Probability Json
- {"p_a": 0.34035, "p_b": 0.2043, "both": 0.06469146153299031, "a_only": 0.27565853846700966, "b_only": 0.1396085384670097, "either": 0.4799585384670097, "neither": 0.5200414615329904, "simulation": {"seed": 1066667357, "draw_count": 20000, "simulated_both": 0.06195, "absolute_error_from_analytic": 0.002741461532990312}, "exactly_one": 0.4152670769340194, "naive_independence": 0.069533505, "absolute_difference": -0.004842043467009685, "relative_difference": -0.06963611955142611, "dependence_direction": "approximately_neutral", "conditional_a_given_b": 0.3166493467106721, "conditional_b_given_a": 0.19007334077564364}
- Explanation Json
- {"short": "The back and receiver share team scoring states while competing for a finite touchdown allocation.", "football_structure": "The back and receiver share team scoring states while competing for a finite touchdown allocation.", "dependence_direction": "approximately_neutral"}
- Lineage Json
- {"p10_a": {"content_hash": "746dc5f38ccdddf5d84f9b1f3d4e11f3b1e7d01cb5e64ca96f4b8ceb117639d0", "model_version": "nfl_p10b_rb_signals_v1"}, "p10_b": {"content_hash": "2b8724c5d6cfe2dcba46717befb4948db77cf1e21184c3d91b3b8166b56fb06c", "model_version": "nfl_p10c_wrte_empirical_v1"}, "odds_ratio": 0.8741812825015741, "pair_order": "ascending canonical player_id", "p5_week_hash": "d29eadad3b5c88c27d20fafd4be6fa1d5fbe0b44036b8dc0bd9f724b5849a09a", "evidence_version": "nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1", "selection_version": "nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1", "selected_candidate": "class_or_shrink_0", "joint_model_version": "nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1", "market_is_model_input": false, "cross_player_p10_draw_alignment": "prohibited"}
- Content Hash
- 761e552f52dc0ad8740247ab8a8e4073b0990b01824d360ab3e0d93c1208447e
- Observed At
- 2026-09-17 23:48:31
- Generated At
- 2026-09-18 00:03:07
- Published At
- 2026-09-18 00:03:07
- Player A Name
- De'Von Achane
- Player B Name
- Chris Bell
- Probability
- P A
- 0.34035
- P B
- 0.2043
- Both
- 0.06469146153299
- A Only
- 0.27565853846701
- B Only
- 0.13960853846701
- Either
- 0.47995853846701
- Neither
- 0.52004146153299
- Simulation
- Seed
- 1066667357
- Draw Count
- 20000
- Simulated Both
- 0.06195
- Absolute Error From Analytic
- 0.0027414615329903
- Exactly One
- 0.41526707693402
- Naive Independence
- 0.069533505
- Absolute Difference
- -0.0048420434670097
- Relative Difference
- -0.069636119551426
- Dependence Direction
- approximately_neutral
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.31664934671067
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.19007334077564
- Explanation
- Short
- The back and receiver share team scoring states while competing for a finite touchdown allocation.
- Football Structure
- The back and receiver share team scoring states while competing for a finite touchdown allocation.
- Dependence Direction
- approximately_neutral
- Lineage
- P10 A
- Content Hash
- 746dc5f38ccdddf5d84f9b1f3d4e11f3b1e7d01cb5e64ca96f4b8ceb117639d0
- Model Version
- nfl_p10b_rb_signals_v1
- P10 B
- Content Hash
- 2b8724c5d6cfe2dcba46717befb4948db77cf1e21184c3d91b3b8166b56fb06c
- Model Version
- nfl_p10c_wrte_empirical_v1
- Odds Ratio
- 0.87418128250157
- Pair Order
- ascending canonical player_id
- P5 Week Hash
- d29eadad3b5c88c27d20fafd4be6fa1d5fbe0b44036b8dc0bd9f724b5849a09a
- Evidence Version
- nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1
- Selection Version
- nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1
- Selected Candidate
- class_or_shrink_0
- Joint Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Market Is Model Input
- Cross Player P10 Draw Alignment
- prohibited
Chris Bell + Ollie Gordon II · Supported Empirical Dependence
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 2
- Game Id
- 10546
- Player A Id
- 1732
- Player B Id
- 1744
- Event A Kind
- scorer_td
- Event B Kind
- scorer_td
- Relationship Class
- same_team_rb_wr
- Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Support State
- supported_empirical_dependence
- Projection State
- fallback
- Player A Probability
- 0.2043000000
- Player B Probability
- 0.2279500000
- Both Probability
- 0.0428083526
- Either Probability
- 0.3894416474
- Exactly One Probability
- 0.3466332948
- Neither Probability
- 0.6105583526
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.1877971160
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.2095367234
- Naive Probability
- 0.0465701850
- Absolute Difference
- -0.0037618324
- Relative Difference
- -0.0807776993
- Dependence Direction
- approximately_neutral
- Probability Json
- {"p_a": 0.2043, "p_b": 0.22795, "both": 0.04280835259986236, "a_only": 0.16149164740013766, "b_only": 0.1851416474001377, "either": 0.3894416474001377, "neither": 0.6105583525998624, "simulation": {"seed": 1066667462, "draw_count": 20000, "simulated_both": 0.0434, "absolute_error_from_analytic": 0.000591647400137639}, "exactly_one": 0.3466332948002753, "naive_independence": 0.04657018500000001, "absolute_difference": -0.003761832400137645, "relative_difference": -0.08077769929704261, "dependence_direction": "approximately_neutral", "conditional_a_given_b": 0.1877971160336142, "conditional_b_given_a": 0.20953672344523916}
- Explanation Json
- {"short": "The back and receiver share team scoring states while competing for a finite touchdown allocation.", "football_structure": "The back and receiver share team scoring states while competing for a finite touchdown allocation.", "dependence_direction": "approximately_neutral"}
- Lineage Json
- {"p10_a": {"content_hash": "2b8724c5d6cfe2dcba46717befb4948db77cf1e21184c3d91b3b8166b56fb06c", "model_version": "nfl_p10c_wrte_empirical_v1"}, "p10_b": {"content_hash": "e591624fda2425a5361492ed5359932701d38cfc5dd7065a3f8e18e941208729", "model_version": "nfl_p10b_rb_signals_v1"}, "odds_ratio": 0.8741812825015741, "pair_order": "ascending canonical player_id", "p5_week_hash": "d29eadad3b5c88c27d20fafd4be6fa1d5fbe0b44036b8dc0bd9f724b5849a09a", "evidence_version": "nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1", "selection_version": "nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1", "selected_candidate": "class_or_shrink_0", "joint_model_version": "nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1", "market_is_model_input": false, "cross_player_p10_draw_alignment": "prohibited"}
- Content Hash
- 26ba4fd6871824ab8497b8498611440efbcf505dcc425317a63ad7fbf3fc83d7
- Observed At
- 2026-09-17 23:48:31
- Generated At
- 2026-09-18 00:03:07
- Published At
- 2026-09-18 00:03:07
- Player A Name
- Chris Bell
- Player B Name
- Ollie Gordon II
- Probability
- P A
- 0.2043
- P B
- 0.22795
- Both
- 0.042808352599862
- A Only
- 0.16149164740014
- B Only
- 0.18514164740014
- Either
- 0.38944164740014
- Neither
- 0.61055835259986
- Simulation
- Seed
- 1066667462
- Draw Count
- 20000
- Simulated Both
- 0.0434
- Absolute Error From Analytic
- 0.00059164740013764
- Exactly One
- 0.34663329480028
- Naive Independence
- 0.046570185
- Absolute Difference
- -0.0037618324001376
- Relative Difference
- -0.080777699297043
- Dependence Direction
- approximately_neutral
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.18779711603361
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.20953672344524
- Explanation
- Short
- The back and receiver share team scoring states while competing for a finite touchdown allocation.
- Football Structure
- The back and receiver share team scoring states while competing for a finite touchdown allocation.
- Dependence Direction
- approximately_neutral
- Lineage
- P10 A
- Content Hash
- 2b8724c5d6cfe2dcba46717befb4948db77cf1e21184c3d91b3b8166b56fb06c
- Model Version
- nfl_p10c_wrte_empirical_v1
- P10 B
- Content Hash
- e591624fda2425a5361492ed5359932701d38cfc5dd7065a3f8e18e941208729
- Model Version
- nfl_p10b_rb_signals_v1
- Odds Ratio
- 0.87418128250157
- Pair Order
- ascending canonical player_id
- P5 Week Hash
- d29eadad3b5c88c27d20fafd4be6fa1d5fbe0b44036b8dc0bd9f724b5849a09a
- Evidence Version
- nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1
- Selection Version
- nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1
- Selected Candidate
- class_or_shrink_0
- Joint Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Market Is Model Input
- Cross Player P10 Draw Alignment
- prohibited
Chris Bell + Will Kacmarek · Supported Empirical Dependence
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 2
- Game Id
- 10546
- Player A Id
- 1732
- Player B Id
- 1751
- Event A Kind
- scorer_td
- Event B Kind
- scorer_td
- Relationship Class
- same_team_wr_te
- Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Support State
- supported_empirical_dependence
- Projection State
- fallback
- Player A Probability
- 0.2043000000
- Player B Probability
- 0.1710000000
- Both Probability
- 0.0332246601
- Either Probability
- 0.3420753399
- Exactly One Probability
- 0.3088506797
- Neither Probability
- 0.6579246601
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.1942962582
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.1626268240
- Naive Probability
- 0.0349353000
- Absolute Difference
- -0.0017106399
- Relative Difference
- -0.0489659414
- Dependence Direction
- approximately_neutral
- Probability Json
- {"p_a": 0.2043, "p_b": 0.171, "both": 0.03322466014770315, "a_only": 0.17107533985229686, "b_only": 0.13777533985229687, "either": 0.3420753398522969, "neither": 0.6579246601477031, "simulation": {"seed": 1066667469, "draw_count": 20000, "simulated_both": 0.0336, "absolute_error_from_analytic": 0.0003753398522968465}, "exactly_one": 0.30885067970459373, "naive_independence": 0.0349353, "absolute_difference": -0.001710639852296851, "relative_difference": -0.04896594139156815, "dependence_direction": "approximately_neutral", "conditional_a_given_b": 0.19429625817370264, "conditional_b_given_a": 0.16262682402204184}
- Explanation Json
- {"short": "The receiver and tight end rise in strong passing-TD states but compete for the same receiving-TD allocation.", "football_structure": "The receiver and tight end rise in strong passing-TD states but compete for the same receiving-TD allocation.", "dependence_direction": "approximately_neutral"}
- Lineage Json
- {"p10_a": {"content_hash": "2b8724c5d6cfe2dcba46717befb4948db77cf1e21184c3d91b3b8166b56fb06c", "model_version": "nfl_p10c_wrte_empirical_v1"}, "p10_b": {"content_hash": "b60a1ac7410c4dfb83cd55dd238dc7c5cb2a3bb2707d2f431582317547fb3998", "model_version": "nfl_p10c_wrte_empirical_v1"}, "odds_ratio": 0.9274228879411432, "pair_order": "ascending canonical player_id", "p5_week_hash": "d29eadad3b5c88c27d20fafd4be6fa1d5fbe0b44036b8dc0bd9f724b5849a09a", "evidence_version": "nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1", "selection_version": "nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1", "selected_candidate": "class_or_shrink_0", "joint_model_version": "nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1", "market_is_model_input": false, "cross_player_p10_draw_alignment": "prohibited"}
- Content Hash
- 285069470933cc9137c93e150cec2331657e7c8d94c30590e96f62b563700785
- Observed At
- 2026-09-17 23:48:31
- Generated At
- 2026-09-18 00:03:07
- Published At
- 2026-09-18 00:03:07
- Player A Name
- Chris Bell
- Player B Name
- Will Kacmarek
- Probability
- P A
- 0.2043
- P B
- 0.171
- Both
- 0.033224660147703
- A Only
- 0.1710753398523
- B Only
- 0.1377753398523
- Either
- 0.3420753398523
- Neither
- 0.6579246601477
- Simulation
- Seed
- 1066667469
- Draw Count
- 20000
- Simulated Both
- 0.0336
- Absolute Error From Analytic
- 0.00037533985229685
- Exactly One
- 0.30885067970459
- Naive Independence
- 0.0349353
- Absolute Difference
- -0.0017106398522969
- Relative Difference
- -0.048965941391568
- Dependence Direction
- approximately_neutral
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.1942962581737
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.16262682402204
- Explanation
- Short
- The receiver and tight end rise in strong passing-TD states but compete for the same receiving-TD allocation.
- Football Structure
- The receiver and tight end rise in strong passing-TD states but compete for the same receiving-TD allocation.
- Dependence Direction
- approximately_neutral
- Lineage
- P10 A
- Content Hash
- 2b8724c5d6cfe2dcba46717befb4948db77cf1e21184c3d91b3b8166b56fb06c
- Model Version
- nfl_p10c_wrte_empirical_v1
- P10 B
- Content Hash
- b60a1ac7410c4dfb83cd55dd238dc7c5cb2a3bb2707d2f431582317547fb3998
- Model Version
- nfl_p10c_wrte_empirical_v1
- Odds Ratio
- 0.92742288794114
- Pair Order
- ascending canonical player_id
- P5 Week Hash
- d29eadad3b5c88c27d20fafd4be6fa1d5fbe0b44036b8dc0bd9f724b5849a09a
- Evidence Version
- nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1
- Selection Version
- nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1
- Selected Candidate
- class_or_shrink_0
- Joint Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Market Is Model Input
- Cross Player P10 Draw Alignment
- prohibited
Chris Bell + Greg Dulcich · Supported Empirical Dependence
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 2
- Game Id
- 10546
- Player A Id
- 1732
- Player B Id
- 1740
- Event A Kind
- scorer_td
- Event B Kind
- scorer_td
- Relationship Class
- same_team_wr_te
- Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Support State
- supported_empirical_dependence
- Projection State
- fallback
- Player A Probability
- 0.2043000000
- Player B Probability
- 0.1601500000
- Both Probability
- 0.0310963607
- Either Probability
- 0.3333536393
- Exactly One Probability
- 0.3022572785
- Neither Probability
- 0.6666463607
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.1941702201
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.1522093037
- Naive Probability
- 0.0327186450
- Absolute Difference
- -0.0016222843
- Relative Difference
- -0.0495828678
- Dependence Direction
- approximately_neutral
- Probability Json
- {"p_a": 0.2043, "p_b": 0.16015, "both": 0.031096360749773597, "a_only": 0.17320363925022642, "b_only": 0.1290536392502264, "either": 0.33335363925022643, "neither": 0.6666463607497736, "simulation": {"seed": 1066667458, "draw_count": 20000, "simulated_both": 0.03115, "absolute_error_from_analytic": 0.00005363925022640326}, "exactly_one": 0.3022572785004528, "naive_independence": 0.032718645, "absolute_difference": -0.0016222842502264002, "relative_difference": -0.049582867818224144, "dependence_direction": "approximately_neutral", "conditional_a_given_b": 0.1941702201047368, "conditional_b_given_a": 0.1522093037189114}
- Explanation Json
- {"short": "The receiver and tight end rise in strong passing-TD states but compete for the same receiving-TD allocation.", "football_structure": "The receiver and tight end rise in strong passing-TD states but compete for the same receiving-TD allocation.", "dependence_direction": "approximately_neutral"}
- Lineage Json
- {"p10_a": {"content_hash": "2b8724c5d6cfe2dcba46717befb4948db77cf1e21184c3d91b3b8166b56fb06c", "model_version": "nfl_p10c_wrte_empirical_v1"}, "p10_b": {"content_hash": "ed385872b7f212722fb81de95f7639bdbf63aa7f49f3f90513e451f3fc9647fe", "model_version": "nfl_p10c_wrte_signals_v1"}, "odds_ratio": 0.9274228879411432, "pair_order": "ascending canonical player_id", "p5_week_hash": "d29eadad3b5c88c27d20fafd4be6fa1d5fbe0b44036b8dc0bd9f724b5849a09a", "evidence_version": "nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1", "selection_version": "nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1", "selected_candidate": "class_or_shrink_0", "joint_model_version": "nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1", "market_is_model_input": false, "cross_player_p10_draw_alignment": "prohibited"}
- Content Hash
- 1a3824b730af01bb00cacd5c1fb974974a8ab77f50c96f9251483400ee7be5bb
- Observed At
- 2026-09-17 23:48:31
- Generated At
- 2026-09-18 00:03:07
- Published At
- 2026-09-18 00:03:07
- Player A Name
- Chris Bell
- Player B Name
- Greg Dulcich
- Probability
- P A
- 0.2043
- P B
- 0.16015
- Both
- 0.031096360749774
- A Only
- 0.17320363925023
- B Only
- 0.12905363925023
- Either
- 0.33335363925023
- Neither
- 0.66664636074977
- Simulation
- Seed
- 1066667458
- Draw Count
- 20000
- Simulated Both
- 0.03115
- Absolute Error From Analytic
- 5.3639250226403E-5
- Exactly One
- 0.30225727850045
- Naive Independence
- 0.032718645
- Absolute Difference
- -0.0016222842502264
- Relative Difference
- -0.049582867818224
- Dependence Direction
- approximately_neutral
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.19417022010474
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.15220930371891
- Explanation
- Short
- The receiver and tight end rise in strong passing-TD states but compete for the same receiving-TD allocation.
- Football Structure
- The receiver and tight end rise in strong passing-TD states but compete for the same receiving-TD allocation.
- Dependence Direction
- approximately_neutral
- Lineage
- P10 A
- Content Hash
- 2b8724c5d6cfe2dcba46717befb4948db77cf1e21184c3d91b3b8166b56fb06c
- Model Version
- nfl_p10c_wrte_empirical_v1
- P10 B
- Content Hash
- ed385872b7f212722fb81de95f7639bdbf63aa7f49f3f90513e451f3fc9647fe
- Model Version
- nfl_p10c_wrte_signals_v1
- Odds Ratio
- 0.92742288794114
- Pair Order
- ascending canonical player_id
- P5 Week Hash
- d29eadad3b5c88c27d20fafd4be6fa1d5fbe0b44036b8dc0bd9f724b5849a09a
- Evidence Version
- nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1
- Selection Version
- nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1
- Selected Candidate
- class_or_shrink_0
- Joint Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Market Is Model Input
- Cross Player P10 Draw Alignment
- prohibited
Chris Bell + Caleb Douglas · Supported Empirical Dependence
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 2
- Game Id
- 10546
- Player A Id
- 1732
- Player B Id
- 1739
- Event A Kind
- scorer_td
- Event B Kind
- scorer_td
- Relationship Class
- same_team_wr_wr
- Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Support State
- supported_empirical_dependence
- Projection State
- fallback
- Player A Probability
- 0.2043000000
- Player B Probability
- 0.2252000000
- Both Probability
- 0.0450651971
- Either Probability
- 0.3844348029
- Exactly One Probability
- 0.3393696058
- Neither Probability
- 0.6155651971
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.2001118877
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.2205834416
- Naive Probability
- 0.0460083600
- Absolute Difference
- -0.0009431629
- Relative Difference
- -0.0204998154
- Dependence Direction
- approximately_neutral
- Probability Json
- {"p_a": 0.2043, "p_b": 0.2252, "both": 0.0450651971115395, "a_only": 0.1592348028884605, "b_only": 0.1801348028884605, "either": 0.38443480288846055, "neither": 0.6155651971115396, "simulation": {"seed": 1066667457, "draw_count": 20000, "simulated_both": 0.0473, "absolute_error_from_analytic": 0.0022348028884605006}, "exactly_one": 0.339369605776921, "naive_independence": 0.046008360000000005, "absolute_difference": -0.000943162888460504, "relative_difference": -0.02049981543485801, "dependence_direction": "approximately_neutral", "conditional_a_given_b": 0.20011188770665853, "conditional_b_given_a": 0.22058344156407}
- Explanation Json
- {"short": "The receivers rise in strong passing-TD states but compete for the same receiving-TD allocation.", "football_structure": "The receivers rise in strong passing-TD states but compete for the same receiving-TD allocation.", "dependence_direction": "approximately_neutral"}
- Lineage Json
- {"p10_a": {"content_hash": "2b8724c5d6cfe2dcba46717befb4948db77cf1e21184c3d91b3b8166b56fb06c", "model_version": "nfl_p10c_wrte_empirical_v1"}, "p10_b": {"content_hash": "f6a06d1d34466e056cb289c2c0b665a533d96b9561faae221c8ad103d23d7c16", "model_version": "nfl_p10c_wrte_empirical_v1"}, "odds_ratio": 0.9671185409286692, "pair_order": "ascending canonical player_id", "p5_week_hash": "d29eadad3b5c88c27d20fafd4be6fa1d5fbe0b44036b8dc0bd9f724b5849a09a", "evidence_version": "nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1", "selection_version": "nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1", "selected_candidate": "class_or_shrink_0", "joint_model_version": "nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1", "market_is_model_input": false, "cross_player_p10_draw_alignment": "prohibited"}
- Content Hash
- 2f33a950e10a2459c38a9360acc54edea74028d553cee6418980d61ab1ce4894
- Observed At
- 2026-09-17 23:48:31
- Generated At
- 2026-09-18 00:03:07
- Published At
- 2026-09-18 00:03:07
- Player A Name
- Chris Bell
- Player B Name
- Caleb Douglas
- Probability
- P A
- 0.2043
- P B
- 0.2252
- Both
- 0.04506519711154
- A Only
- 0.15923480288846
- B Only
- 0.18013480288846
- Either
- 0.38443480288846
- Neither
- 0.61556519711154
- Simulation
- Seed
- 1066667457
- Draw Count
- 20000
- Simulated Both
- 0.0473
- Absolute Error From Analytic
- 0.0022348028884605
- Exactly One
- 0.33936960577692
- Naive Independence
- 0.04600836
- Absolute Difference
- -0.0009431628884605
- Relative Difference
- -0.020499815434858
- Dependence Direction
- approximately_neutral
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.20011188770666
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.22058344156407
- Explanation
- Short
- The receivers rise in strong passing-TD states but compete for the same receiving-TD allocation.
- Football Structure
- The receivers rise in strong passing-TD states but compete for the same receiving-TD allocation.
- Dependence Direction
- approximately_neutral
- Lineage
- P10 A
- Content Hash
- 2b8724c5d6cfe2dcba46717befb4948db77cf1e21184c3d91b3b8166b56fb06c
- Model Version
- nfl_p10c_wrte_empirical_v1
- P10 B
- Content Hash
- f6a06d1d34466e056cb289c2c0b665a533d96b9561faae221c8ad103d23d7c16
- Model Version
- nfl_p10c_wrte_empirical_v1
- Odds Ratio
- 0.96711854092867
- Pair Order
- ascending canonical player_id
- P5 Week Hash
- d29eadad3b5c88c27d20fafd4be6fa1d5fbe0b44036b8dc0bd9f724b5849a09a
- Evidence Version
- nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1
- Selection Version
- nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1
- Selected Candidate
- class_or_shrink_0
- Joint Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Market Is Model Input
- Cross Player P10 Draw Alignment
- prohibited
Season
Regular season and postseason stay separate; only supported values are shown.
Season production unavailable.
Games
Official game evidence
Published provider box-score evidence by category; it does not imply a start or snap share.
2026 regular · Week 1 · receiving · provider espn
MIA vs LV · REC 1 · YDS 25 · AVG 25.0 · TD 0 · LONG 25 · TGTS 2
- Labels
- 0
- REC
- 1
- YDS
- 2
- AVG
- 3
- TD
- 4
- LONG
- 5
- TGTS
- Values
- 0
- 1
- 1
- 25
- 2
- 25.0
- 3
- 0
- 4
- 25
- 5
- 2
2026 preseason · Week 4 · receiving · provider espn
MIA vs ATL · REC 2 · YDS 22 · AVG 11.0 · TD 0 · LONG 18 · TGTS 5
- Labels
- 0
- REC
- 1
- YDS
- 2
- AVG
- 3
- TD
- 4
- LONG
- 5
- TGTS
- Values
- 0
- 2
- 1
- 22
- 2
- 11.0
- 3
- 0
- 4
- 18
- 5
- 5
Weekly history
2026 REG · Week 1 · MIA vs LV
Targets: 2 · Receptions: 1
- Carries
- 0
- Game Id
- 10527
- Targets
- 2
- Attempts
- 0
- Receptions
- 1
- Completions
- 0
- Passing Tds
- 0
- Rushing Tds
- 0
- Fumbles Lost
- 0
- Interceptions
- 0
- Passing Yards
- 0
- Receiving Tds
- 0
- Rushing Yards
- 0
- Receiving Yards
- 25
Fantasy outlook
Forward systems
Floor and ceiling are projected distribution percentiles; fumbles lost and two-point conversions remain unsupported.
Forward fantasy unavailable.
Historical fantasy
PardonMe-derived scoring and usage are not official NFL statistics. Historical floor, ceiling and consistency are backward-looking; rolling, trailing and qualified position comparisons use prior weeks only.
Madden
—EA OVR
Version unavailable · Observed: Unavailable · Team: Miami Dolphins
EA ratings are supplied by EA; no presentation tiers are used.
Key attributes
EA attributes unavailable.
EA rating history
Career
Coverage: —–—
Team history
Role summaries
2026 · MIA · 0 supported starts
- Player Id
- 1732
- Season Year
- 2026
- Team Abbr
- MIA
- Games With Workload
- 2
- Supported Starts
- 0
- Primary Backup Games
- 0
- Rotational Games
- 0
- Avg Offense Pct
- —
- Avg Defense Pct
- —
- Avg Special Teams Pct
- —
- Latest Role
- unknown
- Latest Week
- 2
- Coverage State
- partial_depth
- Source Hash
- 1a651c6b100463596e01f6d5a6e7ddfce12f9f584033e75fe07eff07d4460410
- Last Published At
- 2026-09-18 16:46:18
Full role history
2026 Week 2 · unknown · offense —
- Player Id
- 1732
- Team Abbr
- MIA
- Season Year
- 2026
- Season Type
- REG
- Week Number
- 2
- Game Id
- —
- Position Code
- WR
- Depth Position
- WR
- Formation
- src:6842a0f6b353e1b56ef30182
- Depth Rank
- 1
- Derived Role
- unknown
- Starter State
- unknown
- Offense Snaps
- —
- Offense Pct
- —
- Defense Snaps
- —
- Defense Pct
- —
- Special Teams Snaps
- —
- Special Teams Pct
- —
- Confidence
- low
- Evidence Completeness
- depth_only
- Warnings Json
- ["relevant_snap_percentage_unavailable", "no_positive_participation_evidence", "official_depth_only_no_snap_evidence"]
- Source Hash
- ffc4b936c37b8552582a2922ed9938a5ee92943a32a708069e4540634b702eaf
- Source Observed At
- 2026-09-18 16:46:12
- Last Published At
- 2026-09-22 11:17:27
2026 Week 1 · participated · offense —
- Player Id
- 1732
- Team Abbr
- MIA
- Season Year
- 2026
- Season Type
- REG
- Week Number
- 1
- Game Id
- 10527
- Position Code
- WR
- Depth Position
- —
- Formation
- —
- Depth Rank
- —
- Derived Role
- participated
- Starter State
- unknown
- Offense Snaps
- —
- Offense Pct
- —
- Defense Snaps
- —
- Defense Pct
- —
- Special Teams Snaps
- —
- Special Teams Pct
- —
- Confidence
- low
- Evidence Completeness
- espn_participation_only
- Warnings Json
- ["snap_participation_unavailable", "depth_rank_unavailable_for_completed_week"]
- Source Hash
- 4801c117c28a9a3f58ff7b3249196804bb55327af8fdddc602f1d813d6de3d42
- Source Observed At
- 2026-09-16 16:27:46
- Last Published At
- 2026-09-17 11:24:37
More
Availability detail and history
Unknown · stale · reported 2026-08-12 04:37:50
Injury wording unavailable · prior factual role Unknown · prior-game snap share —
- Player Id
- 1732
- Team Id
- 52
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- —
- Game Id
- —
- Headline
- No current official observation entered
- Canonical Status
- active_nfi
- Practice Participation
- unknown
- Game Designation
- unknown
- Inactive Status
- unknown
- Reserve Status
- active_nfi
- Roster Status
- unknown
- Injury Wording
- —
- Illness Flag
- —
- Report At
- 2026-08-12 04:37:50
- Observed At
- 2026-08-12 04:37:50
- Source Owner
- Miami Dolphins
- Source Url
- https://www.miamidolphins.com/team/players-roster/
- Freshness State
- stale
- Conflict State
- none
- Unknown State
- 0
- Evidence Completeness
- partial
- Prior Role
- unknown
- Prior Snap Share
- —
- Trailing Snap Share
- —
- Evidence Json
- {"observation_ids": [354042]}
- Source Manifest Hash
- 8524532930bd4dc92231674bdc64d431203ae2bc8c5083cda016ad1a2b93499b
- Derivation Version
- nfl_availability_episode_v2
- Source Published At
- 2026-08-20 10:33:16
- Last Published At
- 2026-08-20 10:33:16
Source: Miami Dolphins
active_nfi · 2026-08-12 04:37:50
- Availability Observation Id
- 354042
- Player Id
- 1732
- Team Id
- 52
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- —
- Game Id
- —
- Observation Type
- reserve
- Canonical Status
- active_nfi
- Provider Status
- active_nfi
- Practice Participation
- unknown
- Game Designation
- unknown
- Inactive Status
- unknown
- Reserve Status
- active_nfi
- Roster Status
- unknown
- Injury Wording
- —
- Illness Flag
- —
- Source Owner
- Miami Dolphins
- Source Url
- https://www.miamidolphins.com/team/players-roster/
- Source Published At
- —
- Observed At
- 2026-08-12 04:37:50
- Effective At
- 2026-08-12 04:37:50
- Ingested At
- 2026-08-12 04:43:51
- Verification State
- verified
- Evidence Completeness
- partial
- Warnings Json
- —
- Correction Of Observation Id
- —
- Source Hash
- 909349fcf08c3e4cd4c203b222a2f32cdbdac3897f2ae666be0834a819d890ed
- Source Published To Serving At
- 2026-08-12 04:43:21
active_nfi · 2026-08-05 05:17:36
- Availability Observation Id
- 353935
- Player Id
- 1732
- Team Id
- 52
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- —
- Game Id
- —
- Observation Type
- reserve
- Canonical Status
- active_nfi
- Provider Status
- active_nfi
- Practice Participation
- unknown
- Game Designation
- unknown
- Inactive Status
- unknown
- Reserve Status
- active_nfi
- Roster Status
- unknown
- Injury Wording
- —
- Illness Flag
- —
- Source Owner
- Miami Dolphins
- Source Url
- https://www.miamidolphins.com/team/players-roster/
- Source Published At
- —
- Observed At
- 2026-08-05 05:17:36
- Effective At
- 2026-08-05 05:17:36
- Ingested At
- 2026-08-05 17:46:53
- Verification State
- reviewed
- Evidence Completeness
- partial
- Warnings Json
- —
- Correction Of Observation Id
- —
- Source Hash
- 82f238c90341dcaea2b68bff91cbbaf40213291e0f28e23ac346787d2e9d7698
- Source Published To Serving At
- 2026-08-05 18:00:13
active_nfi · 2026-08-03 16:41:27
- Availability Observation Id
- 353868
- Player Id
- 1732
- Team Id
- 52
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- —
- Game Id
- —
- Observation Type
- reserve
- Canonical Status
- active_nfi
- Provider Status
- active_nfi
- Practice Participation
- unknown
- Game Designation
- unknown
- Inactive Status
- unknown
- Reserve Status
- active_nfi
- Roster Status
- unknown
- Injury Wording
- —
- Illness Flag
- —
- Source Owner
- Miami Dolphins
- Source Url
- https://www.miamidolphins.com/team/players-roster/
- Source Published At
- —
- Observed At
- 2026-08-03 16:41:27
- Effective At
- 2026-08-03 16:41:27
- Ingested At
- 2026-08-03 16:48:27
- Verification State
- reviewed
- Evidence Completeness
- partial
- Warnings Json
- —
- Correction Of Observation Id
- —
- Source Hash
- 89a6920c6ab3d657b58379ac12359e5e5ad298664ffc9316799797ae478965d4
- Source Published To Serving At
- 2026-08-03 16:47:44
Advanced distributions and matchup context
Receiving distribution
fallback_distribution. Suppressed or unavailable values are not projected as zero.
- Game Id
- 10546
- Player Id
- 1732
- Team Id
- 52
- Opponent Team Id
- 60
- Position Code
- WR
- Model Version
- nfl_p10c_wrte_empirical_v1
- Parameter Version
- nfl_p10c_wrte_params_v1
- Evidence Tier
- position_current_era_fallback
- Confidence
- Insufficient Evidence
- Distribution Json
- {"state": "fallback_distribution", "targets": {"mean": 4.8433, "median": 3.0, "interval_80": {"lower": 2.0, "upper": 9.0}}, "receptions": {"mean": 3.0214, "median": 2.0, "interval_80": {"lower": 1.0, "upper": 6.0}}, "receiving_tds": {"mean": 0.23955, "median": 0.0, "interval_80": {"lower": 0.0, "upper": 1.0}, "probabilities": {"0": 0.7957, "1": 0.17445, "1+": 0.2043, "2+": 0.02985}}, "receiving_yards": {"mean": 41.3797, "median": 27.0, "interval_80": {"lower": 14.0, "upper": 82.0}}}
- Evidence Json
- {"routes": {"state": "unsupported", "reason": "routes are not retained in the governed historical weekly evidence"}, "p9i_context": [], "current_truth": {"role": {"state": "unknown", "depth_rank": null, "source_hash": null, "team_match_state": "missing_current_team_role"}, "availability": {"state": "unknown", "reason": "current_availability_unknown_projection_retained", "values": {"roster_status": "unknown", "reserve_status": "active_nfi", "inactive_status": "unknown", "canonical_status": "active_nfi", "game_designation": "unknown"}, "conflict_state": "none", "freshness_state": "stale", "game_scope_state": "old_or_unknown", "team_match_state": "matched", "serve_distribution": true}, "availability_source_manifest_hash": "8524532930bd4dc92231674bdc64d431203ae2bc8c5083cda016ad1a2b93499b"}, "individualized": false, "unknown_inputs": ["routes", "individual CB assignments", "validated causal P9/P9I receiving coefficient"], "fallback_reason": "insufficient_player_history", "p5_target_center": {"value": 5.279438729343, "contract": "accepted P5 target center; read-only", "workload_target": "targets"}, "projection_basis": "evidence_backed_individualized_projection", "madden_model_effect": "none; explanation-only", "meaningful_definition": ">=1 target and >=3% of team WR/TE targets", "player_meaningful_games": 1}
- Reproducibility Json
- {"seed": 105460132, "method": "empirical targets centered on read-only P5; conditional beta-binomial receptions and TD; nonnegative blended posterior/empirical yards per reception", "source_hash": "c9b73e6411d93132d0cfb277c55bcdd95015f868d24de61a9fcb4fe36149c577", "interval_level": 0.8, "simulation_draws": 20000, "frozen_parameters": {"era_seasons": 2, "td_prior_targets": 100, "catch_prior_targets": 25, "target_mixture_games": 2, "efficiency_empirical_blend": 0.0, "efficiency_prior_receptions": 10}, "parameter_version": "nfl_p10c_wrte_params_v1", "parameter_selection_season": 2023}
- Content Hash
- 2b8724c5d6cfe2dcba46717befb4948db77cf1e21184c3d91b3b8166b56fb06c
- Observed At
- 2026-09-17 23:48:31
- Generated At
- 2026-09-17 23:51:08
- Published At
- 2026-09-17 23:51:08
- Team Abbr
- MIA
- Opponent Abbr
- SF
- Distribution
- State
- fallback_distribution
- Targets
- Mean
- 4.8433
- Median
- 3
- Interval 80
- Lower
- 2
- Upper
- 9
- Receptions
- Mean
- 3.0214
- Median
- 2
- Interval 80
- Lower
- 1
- Upper
- 6
- Receiving Tds
- Mean
- 0.23955
- Median
- 0
- Interval 80
- Lower
- 0
- Upper
- 1
- Probabilities
- 0
- 0.7957
- 1
- 0.17445
- 1+
- 0.2043
- 2+
- 0.02985
- Receiving Yards
- Mean
- 41.3797
- Median
- 27
- Interval 80
- Lower
- 14
- Upper
- 82
- Evidence
- Routes
- State
- unsupported
- Reason
- routes are not retained in the governed historical weekly evidence
- P9i Context
- Current Truth
- Role
- State
- unknown
- Depth Rank
- —
- Source Hash
- —
- Team Match State
- missing_current_team_role
- Availability
- State
- unknown
- Reason
- current_availability_unknown_projection_retained
- Values
- Roster Status
- unknown
- Reserve Status
- active_nfi
- Inactive Status
- unknown
- Canonical Status
- active_nfi
- Game Designation
- unknown
- Conflict State
- none
- Freshness State
- stale
- Game Scope State
- old_or_unknown
- Team Match State
- matched
- Serve Distribution
- 1
- Availability Source Manifest Hash
- 8524532930bd4dc92231674bdc64d431203ae2bc8c5083cda016ad1a2b93499b
- Individualized
- Unknown Inputs
- 0
- routes
- 1
- individual CB assignments
- 2
- validated causal P9/P9I receiving coefficient
- Fallback Reason
- insufficient_player_history
- P5 Target Center
- Value
- 5.279438729343
- Contract
- accepted P5 target center; read-only
- Workload Target
- targets
- Projection Basis
- evidence_backed_individualized_projection
- Madden Model Effect
- none; explanation-only
- Meaningful Definition
- >=1 target and >=3% of team WR/TE targets
- Player Meaningful Games
- 1
- Reproducibility
- Seed
- 105460132
- Method
- empirical targets centered on read-only P5; conditional beta-binomial receptions and TD; nonnegative blended posterior/empirical yards per reception
- Source Hash
- c9b73e6411d93132d0cfb277c55bcdd95015f868d24de61a9fcb4fe36149c577
- Interval Level
- 0.8
- Simulation Draws
- 20000
- Frozen Parameters
- Era Seasons
- 2
- Td Prior Targets
- 100
- Catch Prior Targets
- 25
- Target Mixture Games
- 2
- Efficiency Empirical Blend
- 0
- Efficiency Prior Receptions
- 10
- Parameter Version
- nfl_p10c_wrte_params_v1
- Parameter Selection Season
- 2023
Unit, passing and scoring context
- Unit Matchups
- Passing Matchups
- Scoring Opportunities
- Team
- Player
- Matchup Context
- State
- unknown
- Game Id
- 10546
- Position
- WR
- Role
- State
- supported_current_official_depth
- Label
- WR1
- Depth Rank
- 1
- Boundary
- Official depth is role context; it does not establish starter status, snap share or workload share.
- Availability
- State
- active_nfi
- Headline
- —
- Boundary
- Unknown, not-yet-available and reserve-unknown are not healthy, active, available or reduced-usage conclusions.
- Prior Role
- State
- unknown
- Offense Pct
- —
- Derived Role
- —
- Evidence Label
- no_prior_observed_role
- Boundary
- Backward-looking observed workload does not establish current workload or starter status.
- Projection
- Basis
- evidence_backed_individualized_projection
- Boundary
- P9 matchup environments explain context only and do not change the accepted P5 player projection.
- Unit
- —
- Passing
- —
- Scoring Opportunity
- Player
- State
- unknown
- Reason
- No supported prior scoring-opportunity evidence
- Team Matchup
- State
- unknown
- Reason
- No supported prior team scoring-opportunity evidence
- Boundary
- Prior 2025 scoring-opportunity evidence is explanation only and does not change P5 or calculate touchdown probability.
- Individual Coverage
- unknown_team_environment_is_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Replacement Effect
- unknown_not_inferred_from_depth_or_availability
- Primary Context
- 0
- passing
- Broader Context
- 0
- sack
- Boundary
- Team pass defense is not a CB assignment, separation, man/zone matchup or individual defender grade. No target or workload effect is inferred.
These are explanation-only values. Pressure, individual assignments, coverage and replacement effects remain unavailable unless retained above.
Sources & Methodology
Official depth, provider box scores, governed fantasy serving, EA ratings, PardonMe projections, matchup context and market comparisons retain source lineage. Markets are not model inputs.
Methodology: P5 is read-only workload and fantasy serving. P10 distributions are independent, governed models. P9 context and Madden analysis explain rather than adjust them. Missing, insufficient, conflicting, stale, or unsupported evidence remains unavailable.
Provenance: nflverse season totals, provider game evidence, official availability/depth, EA ratings and dated observations are shown with their retained fields above.