NFL player
Kaelon Black
San Francisco 49ers · RB · #26
Height5'9"
Weight208 lb
CollegeIndiana; James Madison
Right now
RoleRB2Official depth chart
StatusUnknown
AvailabilityNo confirmed injury/status update yet.Unknown does not mean healthy or active.
SeasonProduction unavailable
PardonMe this weekvs MIA · Sun Sep 20 · 8:25 PM
Carries10.4
Rush yards45
Targets2.1
Receptions1.6
TD chance31%
Full-PPR9.7
Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence · Full-PPR range 1.8–17.6
Today
Matchupvs MIA · Not yet available
Role and prior workload— · backward-looking, not a starter or share inference
Projected opportunities12.1
ProjectionIndividualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence · 80% Full-PPR 1.8–17.6
Matchup explanation
Team run environment does not infer carry share, target share, starter status, snap share, blocking assignment or replacement effect. Pressure, individual coverage and replacement effects remain unavailable.
- Current Role
- State
- available
- Team Abbr
- SF
- Depth Rank
- 2
- Position Code
- RB
- Depth Position
- RB
- Evidence Label
- current_2026_official_preseason_depth
- Roster Membership
- roster_observed
- Formal Roster Status
- active
- Source Manifest Hash
- e733c717581d2a3484fa508fa459ba9062e63520f5c4bc4a0f9c042aea58b440
- Prior Observed Role
- State
- unknown
- Game Id
- —
- Team Abbr
- —
- Depth Rank
- —
- Defense Pct
- —
- Offense Pct
- —
- Season Type
- —
- Season Year
- —
- Week Number
- —
- Derived Role
- —
- Starter State
- —
- Evidence Label
- no_prior_observed_role
- Special Teams Pct
- —
- Source Manifest Hash
- —
- Role Continuity Games
- —
- Context
- State
- unknown
- Game Id
- 10546
- Position
- RB
- Role
- State
- supported_current_official_depth
- Label
- RB2
- Depth Rank
- 2
- Boundary
- Official depth is role context; it does not establish starter status, snap share or workload share.
- Availability
- State
- not_yet_available
- Headline
- —
- Boundary
- Unknown, not-yet-available and reserve-unknown are not healthy, active, available or reduced-usage conclusions.
- Prior Role
- State
- unknown
- Offense Pct
- —
- Derived Role
- —
- Evidence Label
- no_prior_observed_role
- Boundary
- Backward-looking observed workload does not establish current workload or starter status.
- Projection
- Basis
- evidence_backed_individualized_projection
- Boundary
- P9 matchup environments explain context only and do not change the accepted P5 player projection.
- Unit
- —
- Passing
- —
- Scoring Opportunity
- Player
- State
- unknown
- Reason
- No supported prior scoring-opportunity evidence
- Team Matchup
- State
- unknown
- Reason
- No supported prior team scoring-opportunity evidence
- Boundary
- Prior 2025 scoring-opportunity evidence is explanation only and does not change P5 or calculate touchdown probability.
- Individual Coverage
- unknown_team_environment_is_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Replacement Effect
- unknown_not_inferred_from_depth_or_availability
- Primary Context
- 0
- run
- Broader Context
- 0
- passing
- Individual Blocking Assignment
- unknown_team_run_environment_is_not_individual_assignment_evidence
- Boundary
- Team run environment does not infer carry share, target share, starter status, snap share, blocking assignment or replacement effect.
Current touchdown outlook
31.3% anytime TD. Correlation is explanation only.
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 2
- Game Id
- 10546
- Player Id
- 2471
- Team Id
- 60
- Opponent Team Id
- 52
- Position Code
- RB
- Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Support State
- supported_anytime
- Projection State
- fallback
- Anytime Probability
- 0.3132000000
- Exactly One Probability
- 0.2456500000
- Two Plus Probability
- 0.0675500000
- Probability Json
- {"p_0": 0.6868, "p_1": 0.24565, "p_2_plus": 0.06755, "p_anytime": 0.3132, "multi_td_support": "supported"}
- Lineage Json
- {"p5_week_hash": "a2254ba8c0a3d262499ea5e2bb07d419b91aa632dd74faa1ca8d39f91285e627", "draw_contract": "P10 marginal summary only; cross-player draw indices are never aligned", "evidence_version": "nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1", "p10_content_hash": "f8ccf41eb433c7b8aaf8b73c942caa9f409d525a693a93ea9361a1df884e215d", "p10_model_version": "nfl_p10b_rb_empirical_v3", "selection_version": "nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1", "availability_state": "unknown", "joint_model_version": "nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1", "market_is_model_input": false}
- Content Hash
- 2c9d49614ca371f0cd7b0748fb2af35a67ae0f2863f29285ff9dc123895cc2b4
- Observed At
- 2026-09-12 07:30:04
- Generated At
- 2026-09-18 00:03:07
- Published At
- 2026-09-18 00:03:07
- Probability
- P 0
- 0.6868
- P 1
- 0.24565
- P 2 Plus
- 0.06755
- P Anytime
- 0.3132
- Multi Td Support
- supported
- Lineage
- P5 Week Hash
- a2254ba8c0a3d262499ea5e2bb07d419b91aa632dd74faa1ca8d39f91285e627
- Draw Contract
- P10 marginal summary only; cross-player draw indices are never aligned
- Evidence Version
- nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1
- P10 Content Hash
- f8ccf41eb433c7b8aaf8b73c942caa9f409d525a693a93ea9361a1df884e215d
- P10 Model Version
- nfl_p10b_rb_empirical_v3
- Selection Version
- nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1
- Availability State
- unknown
- Joint Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Market Is Model Input
Touchdown Connections
Kaelon Black + Christian McCaffrey · Supported Empirical Dependence
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 2
- Game Id
- 10546
- Player A Id
- 2471
- Player B Id
- 2490
- Event A Kind
- scorer_td
- Event B Kind
- scorer_td
- Relationship Class
- same_team_rb_rb
- Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Support State
- supported_empirical_dependence
- Projection State
- fallback
- Player A Probability
- 0.3132000000
- Player B Probability
- 0.3423500000
- Both Probability
- 0.0912368750
- Either Probability
- 0.5643131250
- Exactly One Probability
- 0.4730762501
- Neither Probability
- 0.4356868750
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.2665017525
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.2913054757
- Naive Probability
- 0.1072240200
- Absolute Difference
- -0.0159871450
- Relative Difference
- -0.1491004070
- Dependence Direction
- negative
- Probability Json
- {"p_a": 0.3132, "p_b": 0.34235, "both": 0.0912368749740918, "a_only": 0.2219631250259082, "b_only": 0.2511131250259082, "either": 0.5643131250259081, "neither": 0.43568687497409175, "simulation": {"seed": 1066691117, "draw_count": 20000, "simulated_both": 0.09365, "absolute_error_from_analytic": 0.002413125025908208}, "exactly_one": 0.4730762500518164, "naive_independence": 0.10722402, "absolute_difference": -0.0159871450259082, "relative_difference": -0.1491004070348062, "dependence_direction": "negative", "conditional_a_given_b": 0.26650175251669866, "conditional_b_given_a": 0.29130547565163406}
- Explanation Json
- {"short": "Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.", "football_structure": "Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.", "dependence_direction": "negative"}
- Lineage Json
- {"p10_a": {"content_hash": "f8ccf41eb433c7b8aaf8b73c942caa9f409d525a693a93ea9361a1df884e215d", "model_version": "nfl_p10b_rb_empirical_v3"}, "p10_b": {"content_hash": "3f5a41fac9fed0814674e10268957bb89aaacc435b5100fb943bbff999eade61", "model_version": "nfl_p10b_rb_signals_v1"}, "odds_ratio": 0.7131725768321513, "pair_order": "ascending canonical player_id", "p5_week_hash": "d29eadad3b5c88c27d20fafd4be6fa1d5fbe0b44036b8dc0bd9f724b5849a09a", "evidence_version": "nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1", "selection_version": "nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1", "selected_candidate": "class_or_shrink_0", "joint_model_version": "nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1", "market_is_model_input": false, "cross_player_p10_draw_alignment": "prohibited"}
- Content Hash
- 75fc837fb7191515acb7f8d853f2ae18800a8d1cea8f70c63037ae0ce1ffd1e4
- Observed At
- 2026-09-12 07:30:04
- Generated At
- 2026-09-18 00:03:07
- Published At
- 2026-09-18 00:03:07
- Player A Name
- Kaelon Black
- Player B Name
- Christian McCaffrey
- Probability
- P A
- 0.3132
- P B
- 0.34235
- Both
- 0.091236874974092
- A Only
- 0.22196312502591
- B Only
- 0.25111312502591
- Either
- 0.56431312502591
- Neither
- 0.43568687497409
- Simulation
- Seed
- 1066691117
- Draw Count
- 20000
- Simulated Both
- 0.09365
- Absolute Error From Analytic
- 0.0024131250259082
- Exactly One
- 0.47307625005182
- Naive Independence
- 0.10722402
- Absolute Difference
- -0.015987145025908
- Relative Difference
- -0.14910040703481
- Dependence Direction
- negative
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.2665017525167
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.29130547565163
- Explanation
- Short
- Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.
- Football Structure
- Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.
- Dependence Direction
- negative
- Lineage
- P10 A
- Content Hash
- f8ccf41eb433c7b8aaf8b73c942caa9f409d525a693a93ea9361a1df884e215d
- Model Version
- nfl_p10b_rb_empirical_v3
- P10 B
- Content Hash
- 3f5a41fac9fed0814674e10268957bb89aaacc435b5100fb943bbff999eade61
- Model Version
- nfl_p10b_rb_signals_v1
- Odds Ratio
- 0.71317257683215
- Pair Order
- ascending canonical player_id
- P5 Week Hash
- d29eadad3b5c88c27d20fafd4be6fa1d5fbe0b44036b8dc0bd9f724b5849a09a
- Evidence Version
- nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1
- Selection Version
- nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1
- Selected Candidate
- class_or_shrink_0
- Joint Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Market Is Model Input
- Cross Player P10 Draw Alignment
- prohibited
Kaelon Black + Mike Evans · Supported Empirical Dependence
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 2
- Game Id
- 10546
- Player A Id
- 2471
- Player B Id
- 2478
- Event A Kind
- scorer_td
- Event B Kind
- scorer_td
- Relationship Class
- same_team_rb_wr
- Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Support State
- supported_empirical_dependence
- Projection State
- fallback
- Player A Probability
- 0.3132000000
- Player B Probability
- 0.2623000000
- Both Probability
- 0.0766256749
- Either Probability
- 0.4988743251
- Exactly One Probability
- 0.4222486501
- Neither Probability
- 0.5011256749
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.2921299082
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.2446541345
- Naive Probability
- 0.0821523600
- Absolute Difference
- -0.0055266851
- Relative Difference
- -0.0672736008
- Dependence Direction
- negative
- Probability Json
- {"p_a": 0.3132, "p_b": 0.2623, "both": 0.07662567492976226, "a_only": 0.2365743250702377, "b_only": 0.18567432507023773, "either": 0.4988743250702377, "neither": 0.5011256749297623, "simulation": {"seed": 1066691105, "draw_count": 20000, "simulated_both": 0.0741, "absolute_error_from_analytic": 0.002525674929762259}, "exactly_one": 0.42224865014047547, "naive_independence": 0.08215236, "absolute_difference": -0.005526685070237736, "relative_difference": -0.0672736007856346, "dependence_direction": "negative", "conditional_a_given_b": 0.29212990823393925, "conditional_b_given_a": 0.24465413451392803}
- Explanation Json
- {"short": "The back and receiver share team scoring states while competing for a finite touchdown allocation.", "football_structure": "The back and receiver share team scoring states while competing for a finite touchdown allocation.", "dependence_direction": "negative"}
- Lineage Json
- {"p10_a": {"content_hash": "f8ccf41eb433c7b8aaf8b73c942caa9f409d525a693a93ea9361a1df884e215d", "model_version": "nfl_p10b_rb_empirical_v3"}, "p10_b": {"content_hash": "873a22a7efce64219e70483579d97c97c7f9a0c62b84aca59be153973798d408", "model_version": "nfl_p10c_wrte_signals_v1"}, "odds_ratio": 0.8741812825015741, "pair_order": "ascending canonical player_id", "p5_week_hash": "d29eadad3b5c88c27d20fafd4be6fa1d5fbe0b44036b8dc0bd9f724b5849a09a", "evidence_version": "nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1", "selection_version": "nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1", "selected_candidate": "class_or_shrink_0", "joint_model_version": "nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1", "market_is_model_input": false, "cross_player_p10_draw_alignment": "prohibited"}
- Content Hash
- 2e2e8a9a116f8d3167e5abce1fbe0ac50471b65c0b0ae337951ee7a0ae9ecab0
- Observed At
- 2026-09-17 23:48:31
- Generated At
- 2026-09-18 00:03:07
- Published At
- 2026-09-18 00:03:07
- Player A Name
- Kaelon Black
- Player B Name
- Mike Evans
- Probability
- P A
- 0.3132
- P B
- 0.2623
- Both
- 0.076625674929762
- A Only
- 0.23657432507024
- B Only
- 0.18567432507024
- Either
- 0.49887432507024
- Neither
- 0.50112567492976
- Simulation
- Seed
- 1066691105
- Draw Count
- 20000
- Simulated Both
- 0.0741
- Absolute Error From Analytic
- 0.0025256749297623
- Exactly One
- 0.42224865014048
- Naive Independence
- 0.08215236
- Absolute Difference
- -0.0055266850702377
- Relative Difference
- -0.067273600785635
- Dependence Direction
- negative
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.29212990823394
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.24465413451393
- Explanation
- Short
- The back and receiver share team scoring states while competing for a finite touchdown allocation.
- Football Structure
- The back and receiver share team scoring states while competing for a finite touchdown allocation.
- Dependence Direction
- negative
- Lineage
- P10 A
- Content Hash
- f8ccf41eb433c7b8aaf8b73c942caa9f409d525a693a93ea9361a1df884e215d
- Model Version
- nfl_p10b_rb_empirical_v3
- P10 B
- Content Hash
- 873a22a7efce64219e70483579d97c97c7f9a0c62b84aca59be153973798d408
- Model Version
- nfl_p10c_wrte_signals_v1
- Odds Ratio
- 0.87418128250157
- Pair Order
- ascending canonical player_id
- P5 Week Hash
- d29eadad3b5c88c27d20fafd4be6fa1d5fbe0b44036b8dc0bd9f724b5849a09a
- Evidence Version
- nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1
- Selection Version
- nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1
- Selected Candidate
- class_or_shrink_0
- Joint Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Market Is Model Input
- Cross Player P10 Draw Alignment
- prohibited
Kaelon Black + Demarcus Robinson · Supported Empirical Dependence
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 2
- Game Id
- 10546
- Player A Id
- 2471
- Player B Id
- 2500
- Event A Kind
- scorer_td
- Event B Kind
- scorer_td
- Relationship Class
- same_team_rb_wr
- Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Support State
- supported_empirical_dependence
- Projection State
- fallback
- Player A Probability
- 0.3132000000
- Player B Probability
- 0.2270000000
- Both Probability
- 0.0660937284
- Either Probability
- 0.4741062716
- Exactly One Probability
- 0.4080125432
- Neither Probability
- 0.5258937284
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.2911617992
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.2110272299
- Naive Probability
- 0.0710964000
- Absolute Difference
- -0.0050026716
- Relative Difference
- -0.0703646259
- Dependence Direction
- negative
- Probability Json
- {"p_a": 0.3132, "p_b": 0.227, "both": 0.06609372840938564, "a_only": 0.24710627159061432, "b_only": 0.16090627159061438, "either": 0.4741062715906144, "neither": 0.5258937284093856, "simulation": {"seed": 1066691127, "draw_count": 20000, "simulated_both": 0.0689, "absolute_error_from_analytic": 0.002806271590614362}, "exactly_one": 0.4080125431812287, "naive_independence": 0.0710964, "absolute_difference": -0.005002671590614363, "relative_difference": -0.07036462592500271, "dependence_direction": "negative", "conditional_a_given_b": 0.29116179916028917, "conditional_b_given_a": 0.2110272299150244}
- Explanation Json
- {"short": "The back and receiver share team scoring states while competing for a finite touchdown allocation.", "football_structure": "The back and receiver share team scoring states while competing for a finite touchdown allocation.", "dependence_direction": "negative"}
- Lineage Json
- {"p10_a": {"content_hash": "f8ccf41eb433c7b8aaf8b73c942caa9f409d525a693a93ea9361a1df884e215d", "model_version": "nfl_p10b_rb_empirical_v3"}, "p10_b": {"content_hash": "ace434340db5e4dbc563b136ce1291868fb1ce3932c9761be6d7612002e9fcb0", "model_version": "nfl_p10c_wrte_signals_v1"}, "odds_ratio": 0.8741812825015741, "pair_order": "ascending canonical player_id", "p5_week_hash": "d29eadad3b5c88c27d20fafd4be6fa1d5fbe0b44036b8dc0bd9f724b5849a09a", "evidence_version": "nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1", "selection_version": "nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1", "selected_candidate": "class_or_shrink_0", "joint_model_version": "nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1", "market_is_model_input": false, "cross_player_p10_draw_alignment": "prohibited"}
- Content Hash
- 694c3825b898597b0e25d73ed3a3b65cea00827334c7157aad0a39ff9ef4148d
- Observed At
- 2026-09-17 23:48:31
- Generated At
- 2026-09-18 00:03:07
- Published At
- 2026-09-18 00:03:07
- Player A Name
- Kaelon Black
- Player B Name
- Demarcus Robinson
- Probability
- P A
- 0.3132
- P B
- 0.227
- Both
- 0.066093728409386
- A Only
- 0.24710627159061
- B Only
- 0.16090627159061
- Either
- 0.47410627159061
- Neither
- 0.52589372840939
- Simulation
- Seed
- 1066691127
- Draw Count
- 20000
- Simulated Both
- 0.0689
- Absolute Error From Analytic
- 0.0028062715906144
- Exactly One
- 0.40801254318123
- Naive Independence
- 0.0710964
- Absolute Difference
- -0.0050026715906144
- Relative Difference
- -0.070364625925003
- Dependence Direction
- negative
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.29116179916029
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.21102722991502
- Explanation
- Short
- The back and receiver share team scoring states while competing for a finite touchdown allocation.
- Football Structure
- The back and receiver share team scoring states while competing for a finite touchdown allocation.
- Dependence Direction
- negative
- Lineage
- P10 A
- Content Hash
- f8ccf41eb433c7b8aaf8b73c942caa9f409d525a693a93ea9361a1df884e215d
- Model Version
- nfl_p10b_rb_empirical_v3
- P10 B
- Content Hash
- ace434340db5e4dbc563b136ce1291868fb1ce3932c9761be6d7612002e9fcb0
- Model Version
- nfl_p10c_wrte_signals_v1
- Odds Ratio
- 0.87418128250157
- Pair Order
- ascending canonical player_id
- P5 Week Hash
- d29eadad3b5c88c27d20fafd4be6fa1d5fbe0b44036b8dc0bd9f724b5849a09a
- Evidence Version
- nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1
- Selection Version
- nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1
- Selected Candidate
- class_or_shrink_0
- Joint Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Market Is Model Input
- Cross Player P10 Draw Alignment
- prohibited
Kaelon Black + George Kittle · Supported Empirical Dependence
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 2
- Game Id
- 10546
- Player A Id
- 2471
- Player B Id
- 2487
- Event A Kind
- scorer_td
- Event B Kind
- scorer_td
- Relationship Class
- same_team_rb_te
- Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Support State
- supported_empirical_dependence
- Projection State
- fallback
- Player A Probability
- 0.3132000000
- Player B Probability
- 0.2057000000
- Both Probability
- 0.0597992882
- Either Probability
- 0.4591007118
- Exactly One Probability
- 0.3993014236
- Neither Probability
- 0.5408992882
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.2907111726
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.1909300389
- Naive Probability
- 0.0644252400
- Absolute Difference
- -0.0046259518
- Relative Difference
- -0.0718034081
- Dependence Direction
- approximately_neutral
- Probability Json
- {"p_a": 0.3132, "p_b": 0.2057, "both": 0.05979928819856464, "a_only": 0.2534007118014353, "b_only": 0.14590071180143535, "either": 0.4591007118014353, "neither": 0.5408992881985647, "simulation": {"seed": 1066691114, "draw_count": 20000, "simulated_both": 0.05965, "absolute_error_from_analytic": 0.00014928819856464132}, "exactly_one": 0.3993014236028707, "naive_independence": 0.06442524, "absolute_difference": -0.004625951801435352, "relative_difference": -0.07180340812754989, "dependence_direction": "approximately_neutral", "conditional_a_given_b": 0.29071117257445134, "conditional_b_given_a": 0.190930038948163}
- Explanation Json
- {"short": "The back and tight end share team scoring states while competing for a finite touchdown allocation.", "football_structure": "The back and tight end share team scoring states while competing for a finite touchdown allocation.", "dependence_direction": "approximately_neutral"}
- Lineage Json
- {"p10_a": {"content_hash": "f8ccf41eb433c7b8aaf8b73c942caa9f409d525a693a93ea9361a1df884e215d", "model_version": "nfl_p10b_rb_empirical_v3"}, "p10_b": {"content_hash": "9638c999c41da7a124ecfdbeff8b9992bd3da01f3ec79a89ee8c85d4e89a86aa", "model_version": "nfl_p10c_wrte_signals_v1"}, "odds_ratio": 0.874877370604777, "pair_order": "ascending canonical player_id", "p5_week_hash": "d29eadad3b5c88c27d20fafd4be6fa1d5fbe0b44036b8dc0bd9f724b5849a09a", "evidence_version": "nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1", "selection_version": "nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1", "selected_candidate": "class_or_shrink_0", "joint_model_version": "nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1", "market_is_model_input": false, "cross_player_p10_draw_alignment": "prohibited"}
- Content Hash
- d65e47899ad4251909eede648a3a2aea08a5c019cdda8ab3efe202fe5a9144dd
- Observed At
- 2026-09-17 23:48:31
- Generated At
- 2026-09-18 00:03:07
- Published At
- 2026-09-18 00:03:07
- Player A Name
- Kaelon Black
- Player B Name
- George Kittle
- Probability
- P A
- 0.3132
- P B
- 0.2057
- Both
- 0.059799288198565
- A Only
- 0.25340071180144
- B Only
- 0.14590071180144
- Either
- 0.45910071180144
- Neither
- 0.54089928819856
- Simulation
- Seed
- 1066691114
- Draw Count
- 20000
- Simulated Both
- 0.05965
- Absolute Error From Analytic
- 0.00014928819856464
- Exactly One
- 0.39930142360287
- Naive Independence
- 0.06442524
- Absolute Difference
- -0.0046259518014354
- Relative Difference
- -0.07180340812755
- Dependence Direction
- approximately_neutral
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.29071117257445
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.19093003894816
- Explanation
- Short
- The back and tight end share team scoring states while competing for a finite touchdown allocation.
- Football Structure
- The back and tight end share team scoring states while competing for a finite touchdown allocation.
- Dependence Direction
- approximately_neutral
- Lineage
- P10 A
- Content Hash
- f8ccf41eb433c7b8aaf8b73c942caa9f409d525a693a93ea9361a1df884e215d
- Model Version
- nfl_p10b_rb_empirical_v3
- P10 B
- Content Hash
- 9638c999c41da7a124ecfdbeff8b9992bd3da01f3ec79a89ee8c85d4e89a86aa
- Model Version
- nfl_p10c_wrte_signals_v1
- Odds Ratio
- 0.87487737060478
- Pair Order
- ascending canonical player_id
- P5 Week Hash
- d29eadad3b5c88c27d20fafd4be6fa1d5fbe0b44036b8dc0bd9f724b5849a09a
- Evidence Version
- nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1
- Selection Version
- nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1
- Selected Candidate
- class_or_shrink_0
- Joint Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Market Is Model Input
- Cross Player P10 Draw Alignment
- prohibited
Kaelon Black + De'Zhaun Stribling · Supported Empirical Dependence
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 2
- Game Id
- 10546
- Player A Id
- 2471
- Player B Id
- 2503
- Event A Kind
- scorer_td
- Event B Kind
- scorer_td
- Relationship Class
- same_team_rb_wr
- Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Support State
- supported_empirical_dependence
- Projection State
- fallback
- Player A Probability
- 0.3132000000
- Player B Probability
- 0.2039000000
- Both Probability
- 0.0592391266
- Either Probability
- 0.4578608734
- Exactly One Probability
- 0.3986217469
- Neither Probability
- 0.5421391266
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.2905302922
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.1891415280
- Naive Probability
- 0.0638614800
- Absolute Difference
- -0.0046223534
- Relative Difference
- -0.0723809318
- Dependence Direction
- approximately_neutral
- Probability Json
- {"p_a": 0.3132, "p_b": 0.2039, "both": 0.05923912657044588, "a_only": 0.2539608734295541, "b_only": 0.1446608734295541, "either": 0.45786087342955406, "neither": 0.5421391265704459, "simulation": {"seed": 1066691130, "draw_count": 20000, "simulated_both": 0.05945, "absolute_error_from_analytic": 0.00021087342955412175}, "exactly_one": 0.39862174685910823, "naive_independence": 0.06386148, "absolute_difference": -0.004622353429554117, "relative_difference": -0.07238093181608252, "dependence_direction": "approximately_neutral", "conditional_a_given_b": 0.29053029215520293, "conditional_b_given_a": 0.1891415280027008}
- Explanation Json
- {"short": "The back and receiver share team scoring states while competing for a finite touchdown allocation.", "football_structure": "The back and receiver share team scoring states while competing for a finite touchdown allocation.", "dependence_direction": "approximately_neutral"}
- Lineage Json
- {"p10_a": {"content_hash": "f8ccf41eb433c7b8aaf8b73c942caa9f409d525a693a93ea9361a1df884e215d", "model_version": "nfl_p10b_rb_empirical_v3"}, "p10_b": {"content_hash": "95d2076b2ebeb7a8873e97f050384099578c4c5f6157b1b68b4e2f6a6d8a49b5", "model_version": "nfl_p10c_wrte_empirical_v1"}, "odds_ratio": 0.8741812825015741, "pair_order": "ascending canonical player_id", "p5_week_hash": "d29eadad3b5c88c27d20fafd4be6fa1d5fbe0b44036b8dc0bd9f724b5849a09a", "evidence_version": "nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1", "selection_version": "nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1", "selected_candidate": "class_or_shrink_0", "joint_model_version": "nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1", "market_is_model_input": false, "cross_player_p10_draw_alignment": "prohibited"}
- Content Hash
- f38f8976c06f59edcf5b23da948e4934b3008168ebf8738310adc194e81dec9c
- Observed At
- 2026-09-17 23:48:31
- Generated At
- 2026-09-18 00:03:07
- Published At
- 2026-09-18 00:03:07
- Player A Name
- Kaelon Black
- Player B Name
- De'Zhaun Stribling
- Probability
- P A
- 0.3132
- P B
- 0.2039
- Both
- 0.059239126570446
- A Only
- 0.25396087342955
- B Only
- 0.14466087342955
- Either
- 0.45786087342955
- Neither
- 0.54213912657045
- Simulation
- Seed
- 1066691130
- Draw Count
- 20000
- Simulated Both
- 0.05945
- Absolute Error From Analytic
- 0.00021087342955412
- Exactly One
- 0.39862174685911
- Naive Independence
- 0.06386148
- Absolute Difference
- -0.0046223534295541
- Relative Difference
- -0.072380931816083
- Dependence Direction
- approximately_neutral
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.2905302921552
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.1891415280027
- Explanation
- Short
- The back and receiver share team scoring states while competing for a finite touchdown allocation.
- Football Structure
- The back and receiver share team scoring states while competing for a finite touchdown allocation.
- Dependence Direction
- approximately_neutral
- Lineage
- P10 A
- Content Hash
- f8ccf41eb433c7b8aaf8b73c942caa9f409d525a693a93ea9361a1df884e215d
- Model Version
- nfl_p10b_rb_empirical_v3
- P10 B
- Content Hash
- 95d2076b2ebeb7a8873e97f050384099578c4c5f6157b1b68b4e2f6a6d8a49b5
- Model Version
- nfl_p10c_wrte_empirical_v1
- Odds Ratio
- 0.87418128250157
- Pair Order
- ascending canonical player_id
- P5 Week Hash
- d29eadad3b5c88c27d20fafd4be6fa1d5fbe0b44036b8dc0bd9f724b5849a09a
- Evidence Version
- nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1
- Selection Version
- nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1
- Selected Candidate
- class_or_shrink_0
- Joint Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Market Is Model Input
- Cross Player P10 Draw Alignment
- prohibited
Kaelon Black + Jake Tonges · Supported Empirical Dependence
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 2
- Game Id
- 10546
- Player A Id
- 2471
- Player B Id
- 2505
- Event A Kind
- scorer_td
- Event B Kind
- scorer_td
- Relationship Class
- same_team_rb_te
- Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Support State
- supported_empirical_dependence
- Projection State
- fallback
- Player A Probability
- 0.3132000000
- Player B Probability
- 0.1807000000
- Both Probability
- 0.0524089946
- Either Probability
- 0.4414910054
- Exactly One Probability
- 0.3890820107
- Neither Probability
- 0.5585089946
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.2900331745
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.1673339548
- Naive Probability
- 0.0565952400
- Absolute Difference
- -0.0041862454
- Relative Difference
- -0.0739681528
- Dependence Direction
- approximately_neutral
- Probability Json
- {"p_a": 0.3132, "p_b": 0.1807, "both": 0.05240899463770115, "a_only": 0.2607910053622988, "b_only": 0.12829100536229884, "either": 0.4414910053622988, "neither": 0.5585089946377012, "simulation": {"seed": 1066691132, "draw_count": 20000, "simulated_both": 0.05305, "absolute_error_from_analytic": 0.0006410053622988438}, "exactly_one": 0.3890820107245977, "naive_independence": 0.05659524, "absolute_difference": -0.004186245362298842, "relative_difference": -0.07396815283933493, "dependence_direction": "approximately_neutral", "conditional_a_given_b": 0.2900331745307203, "conditional_b_given_a": 0.1673339547819322}
- Explanation Json
- {"short": "The back and tight end share team scoring states while competing for a finite touchdown allocation.", "football_structure": "The back and tight end share team scoring states while competing for a finite touchdown allocation.", "dependence_direction": "approximately_neutral"}
- Lineage Json
- {"p10_a": {"content_hash": "f8ccf41eb433c7b8aaf8b73c942caa9f409d525a693a93ea9361a1df884e215d", "model_version": "nfl_p10b_rb_empirical_v3"}, "p10_b": {"content_hash": "275a674bfbf8b80fec8554d73fa6989d15b14fae2c4a585b8a9d4f938f4ad657", "model_version": "nfl_p10c_wrte_signals_v1"}, "odds_ratio": 0.874877370604777, "pair_order": "ascending canonical player_id", "p5_week_hash": "d29eadad3b5c88c27d20fafd4be6fa1d5fbe0b44036b8dc0bd9f724b5849a09a", "evidence_version": "nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1", "selection_version": "nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1", "selected_candidate": "class_or_shrink_0", "joint_model_version": "nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1", "market_is_model_input": false, "cross_player_p10_draw_alignment": "prohibited"}
- Content Hash
- 4dae09b2b00efcda01acb595fee96550a97bf99e73b23ec83b073a2a6d180a0d
- Observed At
- 2026-09-17 23:48:31
- Generated At
- 2026-09-18 00:03:07
- Published At
- 2026-09-18 00:03:07
- Player A Name
- Kaelon Black
- Player B Name
- Jake Tonges
- Probability
- P A
- 0.3132
- P B
- 0.1807
- Both
- 0.052408994637701
- A Only
- 0.2607910053623
- B Only
- 0.1282910053623
- Either
- 0.4414910053623
- Neither
- 0.5585089946377
- Simulation
- Seed
- 1066691132
- Draw Count
- 20000
- Simulated Both
- 0.05305
- Absolute Error From Analytic
- 0.00064100536229884
- Exactly One
- 0.3890820107246
- Naive Independence
- 0.05659524
- Absolute Difference
- -0.0041862453622988
- Relative Difference
- -0.073968152839335
- Dependence Direction
- approximately_neutral
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.29003317453072
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.16733395478193
- Explanation
- Short
- The back and tight end share team scoring states while competing for a finite touchdown allocation.
- Football Structure
- The back and tight end share team scoring states while competing for a finite touchdown allocation.
- Dependence Direction
- approximately_neutral
- Lineage
- P10 A
- Content Hash
- f8ccf41eb433c7b8aaf8b73c942caa9f409d525a693a93ea9361a1df884e215d
- Model Version
- nfl_p10b_rb_empirical_v3
- P10 B
- Content Hash
- 275a674bfbf8b80fec8554d73fa6989d15b14fae2c4a585b8a9d4f938f4ad657
- Model Version
- nfl_p10c_wrte_signals_v1
- Odds Ratio
- 0.87487737060478
- Pair Order
- ascending canonical player_id
- P5 Week Hash
- d29eadad3b5c88c27d20fafd4be6fa1d5fbe0b44036b8dc0bd9f724b5849a09a
- Evidence Version
- nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1
- Selection Version
- nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1
- Selected Candidate
- class_or_shrink_0
- Joint Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Market Is Model Input
- Cross Player P10 Draw Alignment
- prohibited
Season
Regular season and postseason stay separate; only supported values are shown.
Season production unavailable.
Games
Official game evidence
Published provider box-score evidence by category; it does not imply a start or snap share.
2026 regular · Week 1 · receiving · provider espn
SF vs LAR · REC 1 · YDS 5 · AVG 5.0 · TD 0 · LONG 5 · TGTS 1
- Labels
- 0
- REC
- 1
- YDS
- 2
- AVG
- 3
- TD
- 4
- LONG
- 5
- TGTS
- Values
- 0
- 1
- 1
- 5
- 2
- 5.0
- 3
- 0
- 4
- 5
- 5
- 1
2026 regular · Week 1 · rushing · provider espn
SF vs LAR · CAR 14 · YDS 65 · AVG 4.6 · TD 0 · LONG 14
- Labels
- 0
- CAR
- 1
- YDS
- 2
- AVG
- 3
- TD
- 4
- LONG
- Values
- 0
- 14
- 1
- 65
- 2
- 4.6
- 3
- 0
- 4
- 14
2026 preseason · Week 4 · receiving · provider espn
SF vs LV · REC 0 · YDS 0 · AVG 0.0 · TD 0 · LONG 0 · TGTS 1
- Labels
- 0
- REC
- 1
- YDS
- 2
- AVG
- 3
- TD
- 4
- LONG
- 5
- TGTS
- Values
- 0
- 0
- 1
- 0
- 2
- 0.0
- 3
- 0
- 4
- 0
- 5
- 1
2026 preseason · Week 4 · rushing · provider espn
SF vs LV · CAR 4 · YDS 28 · AVG 7.0 · TD 0 · LONG 14
- Labels
- 0
- CAR
- 1
- YDS
- 2
- AVG
- 3
- TD
- 4
- LONG
- Values
- 0
- 4
- 1
- 28
- 2
- 7.0
- 3
- 0
- 4
- 14
2026 preseason · Week 3 · rushing · provider espn
SF vs LAC · CAR 8 · YDS 33 · AVG 4.1 · TD 0 · LONG 9
- Labels
- 0
- CAR
- 1
- YDS
- 2
- AVG
- 3
- TD
- 4
- LONG
- Values
- 0
- 8
- 1
- 33
- 2
- 4.1
- 3
- 0
- 4
- 9
Weekly history
2026 REG · Week 1 · SF vs LAR
Rush Att: 14 · Targets: 1 · Receptions: 1
- Carries
- 14
- Game Id
- 10518
- Targets
- 1
- Attempts
- 0
- Receptions
- 1
- Completions
- 0
- Passing Tds
- 0
- Rushing Tds
- 0
- Fumbles Lost
- 0
- Interceptions
- 0
- Passing Yards
- 0
- Receiving Tds
- 0
- Rushing Yards
- 65
- Receiving Yards
- 5
Fantasy outlook
Forward systems
Floor and ceiling are projected distribution percentiles; fumbles lost and two-point conversions remain unsupported.
Forward fantasy unavailable.
Historical fantasy
PardonMe-derived scoring and usage are not official NFL statistics. Historical floor, ceiling and consistency are backward-looking; rolling, trailing and qualified position comparisons use prior weeks only.
Madden
—EA OVR
Version unavailable · Observed: Unavailable · Team: San Francisco 49ers
EA ratings are supplied by EA; no presentation tiers are used.
Key attributes
EA attributes unavailable.
EA rating history
Career
Coverage: —–—
Team history
Role summaries
2026 · SF · 0 supported starts
- Player Id
- 2471
- Season Year
- 2026
- Team Abbr
- SF
- Games With Workload
- 2
- Supported Starts
- 0
- Primary Backup Games
- 0
- Rotational Games
- 0
- Avg Offense Pct
- —
- Avg Defense Pct
- —
- Avg Special Teams Pct
- —
- Latest Role
- unknown
- Latest Week
- 2
- Coverage State
- partial_depth
- Source Hash
- 040f5dfdd0da6b56982428a1ce3f20c25ef8f8be601c2a70c066fbed4cf6d2ec
- Last Published At
- 2026-09-18 16:46:18
Full role history
2026 Week 2 · unknown · offense —
- Player Id
- 2471
- Team Abbr
- SF
- Season Year
- 2026
- Season Type
- REG
- Week Number
- 2
- Game Id
- —
- Position Code
- RB
- Depth Position
- RB
- Formation
- src:4cdce1fb2dd7a42b7cdeea4d
- Depth Rank
- 2
- Derived Role
- unknown
- Starter State
- unknown
- Offense Snaps
- —
- Offense Pct
- —
- Defense Snaps
- —
- Defense Pct
- —
- Special Teams Snaps
- —
- Special Teams Pct
- —
- Confidence
- low
- Evidence Completeness
- depth_only
- Warnings Json
- ["relevant_snap_percentage_unavailable", "no_positive_participation_evidence", "official_depth_only_no_snap_evidence"]
- Source Hash
- e655dce708211d172a979b52d6cd90422d575598e6342df186c975f4af5dcf90
- Source Observed At
- 2026-09-18 16:46:12
- Last Published At
- 2026-09-22 11:17:27
2026 Week 1 · participated · offense —
- Player Id
- 2471
- Team Abbr
- SF
- Season Year
- 2026
- Season Type
- REG
- Week Number
- 1
- Game Id
- 10518
- Position Code
- RB
- Depth Position
- —
- Formation
- —
- Depth Rank
- —
- Derived Role
- participated
- Starter State
- unknown
- Offense Snaps
- —
- Offense Pct
- —
- Defense Snaps
- —
- Defense Pct
- —
- Special Teams Snaps
- —
- Special Teams Pct
- —
- Confidence
- low
- Evidence Completeness
- espn_participation_only
- Warnings Json
- ["snap_participation_unavailable", "depth_rank_unavailable_for_completed_week"]
- Source Hash
- 3b6c32df4f539c86e0a01ccb3f38bc1cbed20f27c673c58bbad8c025722e8f67
- Source Observed At
- 2026-09-16 16:27:46
- Last Published At
- 2026-09-17 11:24:37
More
Availability detail and history
No current official observation entered. Missing information is unknown; it does not mean healthy, active, available, or unrestricted.
Advanced distributions and matchup context
Backfield distribution
fallback_distribution. Suppressed or unavailable values are not projected as zero.
- Game Id
- 10546
- Player Id
- 2471
- Team Id
- 60
- Opponent Team Id
- 52
- Position Code
- RB
- Model Version
- nfl_p10b_rb_empirical_v3
- Evidence Tier
- position_current_era_fallback
- Confidence
- Insufficient Evidence
- Distribution Json
- {"state": "fallback_distribution", "carries": {"mean": 10.41545, "median": 10.0, "interval_80": {"lower": 4.0, "upper": 17.0}}, "targets": {"mean": 2.0713, "median": 2.0, "interval_80": {"lower": 0.0, "upper": 4.0}}, "total_tds": {"mean": 0.39525, "median": 0.0, "interval_80": {"lower": 0.0, "upper": 1.0}, "probabilities": {"0": 0.6868, "1": 0.24565, "1+": 0.3132, "2+": 0.06755}}, "receptions": {"mean": 1.6374, "median": 1.0, "interval_80": {"lower": 0.0, "upper": 4.0}}, "rushing_tds": {"mean": 0.32895, "median": 0.0, "interval_80": {"lower": 0.0, "upper": 1.0}, "probabilities": {"0": 0.7304, "1": 0.21945, "1+": 0.2696, "2+": 0.05015}}, "opportunities": {"mean": 12.48675, "median": 13.0, "interval_80": {"lower": 5.0, "upper": 21.0}}, "receiving_tds": {"mean": 0.0663, "median": 0.0, "interval_80": {"lower": 0.0, "upper": 0.0}, "probabilities": {"0": 0.93715, "1": 0.05945, "1+": 0.06285, "2+": 0.0034}}, "rushing_yards": {"mean": 45.07895, "median": 43.0, "interval_80": {"lower": 16.0, "upper": 77.0}}, "receiving_yards": {"mean": 11.9994, "median": 8.0, "interval_80": {"lower": 0.0, "upper": 27.0}}}
- Evidence Json
- {"current_truth": {"role": {"state": "supported", "depth_rank": 2, "source_hash": "e733c717581d2a3484fa508fa459ba9062e63520f5c4bc4a0f9c042aea58b440", "team_match_state": "matched"}, "availability": {"state": "unknown", "reason": "current_availability_unknown_projection_retained", "values": {"roster_status": "unknown", "reserve_status": "unknown", "inactive_status": "unknown", "canonical_status": "unknown", "game_designation": "unknown"}, "conflict_state": "none", "freshness_state": "unknown", "game_scope_state": "old_or_unknown", "team_match_state": "unknown", "serve_distribution": true}, "availability_source_manifest_hash": null}, "individualized": false, "unknown_inputs": ["routes (not retained)", "historical snap share joined to nflverse player identity", "validated causal P9 run-defense coefficient", "multi-season red-zone/inside-10/inside-5 player opportunity", "true end-zone targets"], "fallback_reason": "insufficient_player_history", "player_rb_games": 1, "projection_basis": "evidence_backed_individualized_projection", "p9_run_environment": [], "meaningful_definition": ">=5 carries+targets and >=15% of team RB opportunities", "p5_opportunity_center": {"value": 12.106695338497, "contract": "accepted P5 external carries+targets center; read-only", "workload_target": "opportunities"}, "p9_scoring_opportunity_context": {"season": 2025, "model_effect": "none; retained one-season context is not used as an unvalidated multiplier", "inside_5_carries": 0, "red_zone_carries": 0, "red_zone_targets": 0, "inside_10_carries": 0, "true_end_zone_targets": "Unknown"}}
- Reproducibility Json
- {"seed": 105460122, "method": "empirical total opportunities centered on read-only P5; beta-binomial carry/target, catch and TD allocation; conditional empirical yards-per-carry and yards-per-reception", "simulations": 20000, "source_hash": "26e2ec0df8bba68a16a7a8354060676300e098e004e7d77c8baa37e4441599c1", "interval_level": 0.8, "frozen_parameters": {"era_seasons": 3, "rush_td_prior_carries": 500, "catch_rate_prior_targets": 50, "opportunity_mixture_games": 4, "receiving_td_prior_targets": 100, "rush_empirical_blend_weight": 0.5, "rush_efficiency_prior_carries": 200, "carry_share_prior_opportunities": 50, "receiving_empirical_blend_weight": 0.25, "receiving_efficiency_prior_receptions": 100}, "parameter_training_cutoff": 2023}
- Content Hash
- f8ccf41eb433c7b8aaf8b73c942caa9f409d525a693a93ea9361a1df884e215d
- Observed At
- 2026-09-12 07:30:04
- Generated At
- 2026-09-17 23:50:58
- Published At
- 2026-09-17 23:50:58
- Team Abbr
- SF
- Opponent Abbr
- MIA
- Distribution
- State
- fallback_distribution
- Carries
- Mean
- 10.41545
- Median
- 10
- Interval 80
- Lower
- 4
- Upper
- 17
- Targets
- Mean
- 2.0713
- Median
- 2
- Interval 80
- Lower
- 0
- Upper
- 4
- Total Tds
- Mean
- 0.39525
- Median
- 0
- Interval 80
- Lower
- 0
- Upper
- 1
- Probabilities
- 0
- 0.6868
- 1
- 0.24565
- 1+
- 0.3132
- 2+
- 0.06755
- Receptions
- Mean
- 1.6374
- Median
- 1
- Interval 80
- Lower
- 0
- Upper
- 4
- Rushing Tds
- Mean
- 0.32895
- Median
- 0
- Interval 80
- Lower
- 0
- Upper
- 1
- Probabilities
- 0
- 0.7304
- 1
- 0.21945
- 1+
- 0.2696
- 2+
- 0.05015
- Opportunities
- Mean
- 12.48675
- Median
- 13
- Interval 80
- Lower
- 5
- Upper
- 21
- Receiving Tds
- Mean
- 0.0663
- Median
- 0
- Interval 80
- Lower
- 0
- Upper
- 0
- Probabilities
- 0
- 0.93715
- 1
- 0.05945
- 1+
- 0.06285
- 2+
- 0.0034
- Rushing Yards
- Mean
- 45.07895
- Median
- 43
- Interval 80
- Lower
- 16
- Upper
- 77
- Receiving Yards
- Mean
- 11.9994
- Median
- 8
- Interval 80
- Lower
- 0
- Upper
- 27
- Evidence
- Current Truth
- Role
- State
- supported
- Depth Rank
- 2
- Source Hash
- e733c717581d2a3484fa508fa459ba9062e63520f5c4bc4a0f9c042aea58b440
- Team Match State
- matched
- Availability
- State
- unknown
- Reason
- current_availability_unknown_projection_retained
- Values
- Roster Status
- unknown
- Reserve Status
- unknown
- Inactive Status
- unknown
- Canonical Status
- unknown
- Game Designation
- unknown
- Conflict State
- none
- Freshness State
- unknown
- Game Scope State
- old_or_unknown
- Team Match State
- unknown
- Serve Distribution
- 1
- Availability Source Manifest Hash
- —
- Individualized
- Unknown Inputs
- 0
- routes (not retained)
- 1
- historical snap share joined to nflverse player identity
- 2
- validated causal P9 run-defense coefficient
- 3
- multi-season red-zone/inside-10/inside-5 player opportunity
- 4
- true end-zone targets
- Fallback Reason
- insufficient_player_history
- Player Rb Games
- 1
- Projection Basis
- evidence_backed_individualized_projection
- P9 Run Environment
- Meaningful Definition
- >=5 carries+targets and >=15% of team RB opportunities
- P5 Opportunity Center
- Value
- 12.106695338497
- Contract
- accepted P5 external carries+targets center; read-only
- Workload Target
- opportunities
- P9 Scoring Opportunity Context
- Season
- 2025
- Model Effect
- none; retained one-season context is not used as an unvalidated multiplier
- Inside 5 Carries
- 0
- Red Zone Carries
- 0
- Red Zone Targets
- 0
- Inside 10 Carries
- 0
- True End Zone Targets
- Unknown
- Reproducibility
- Seed
- 105460122
- Method
- empirical total opportunities centered on read-only P5; beta-binomial carry/target, catch and TD allocation; conditional empirical yards-per-carry and yards-per-reception
- Simulations
- 20000
- Source Hash
- 26e2ec0df8bba68a16a7a8354060676300e098e004e7d77c8baa37e4441599c1
- Interval Level
- 0.8
- Frozen Parameters
- Era Seasons
- 3
- Rush Td Prior Carries
- 500
- Catch Rate Prior Targets
- 50
- Opportunity Mixture Games
- 4
- Receiving Td Prior Targets
- 100
- Rush Empirical Blend Weight
- 0.5
- Rush Efficiency Prior Carries
- 200
- Carry Share Prior Opportunities
- 50
- Receiving Empirical Blend Weight
- 0.25
- Receiving Efficiency Prior Receptions
- 100
- Parameter Training Cutoff
- 2023
Unit, passing and scoring context
- Unit Matchups
- Passing Matchups
- Scoring Opportunities
- Team
- Player
- Matchup Context
- State
- unknown
- Game Id
- 10546
- Position
- RB
- Role
- State
- supported_current_official_depth
- Label
- RB2
- Depth Rank
- 2
- Boundary
- Official depth is role context; it does not establish starter status, snap share or workload share.
- Availability
- State
- not_yet_available
- Headline
- —
- Boundary
- Unknown, not-yet-available and reserve-unknown are not healthy, active, available or reduced-usage conclusions.
- Prior Role
- State
- unknown
- Offense Pct
- —
- Derived Role
- —
- Evidence Label
- no_prior_observed_role
- Boundary
- Backward-looking observed workload does not establish current workload or starter status.
- Projection
- Basis
- evidence_backed_individualized_projection
- Boundary
- P9 matchup environments explain context only and do not change the accepted P5 player projection.
- Unit
- —
- Passing
- —
- Scoring Opportunity
- Player
- State
- unknown
- Reason
- No supported prior scoring-opportunity evidence
- Team Matchup
- State
- unknown
- Reason
- No supported prior team scoring-opportunity evidence
- Boundary
- Prior 2025 scoring-opportunity evidence is explanation only and does not change P5 or calculate touchdown probability.
- Individual Coverage
- unknown_team_environment_is_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Replacement Effect
- unknown_not_inferred_from_depth_or_availability
- Primary Context
- 0
- run
- Broader Context
- 0
- passing
- Individual Blocking Assignment
- unknown_team_run_environment_is_not_individual_assignment_evidence
- Boundary
- Team run environment does not infer carry share, target share, starter status, snap share, blocking assignment or replacement effect.
These are explanation-only values. Pressure, individual assignments, coverage and replacement effects remain unavailable unless retained above.
Sources & Methodology
Official depth, provider box scores, governed fantasy serving, EA ratings, PardonMe projections, matchup context and market comparisons retain source lineage. Markets are not model inputs.
Methodology: P5 is read-only workload and fantasy serving. P10 distributions are independent, governed models. P9 context and Madden analysis explain rather than adjust them. Missing, insufficient, conflicting, stale, or unsupported evidence remains unavailable.
Provenance: nflverse season totals, provider game evidence, official availability/depth, EA ratings and dated observations are shown with their retained fields above.