NFL player
Kaelon Black
San Francisco 49ers · RB · #26
Height5'9"
Weight208 lb
CollegeIndiana; James Madison
Right now
RoleRB2Official depth chart
StatusUnknown
AvailabilityNo confirmed injury/status update yet.Unknown does not mean healthy or active.
SeasonProduction unavailable
PardonMe this weekvs DAL · Sun Nov 15 · 9:25 PM
Carries10.4
Rush yards45
Targets2.1
Receptions1.6
TD chance31%
Full-PPR8.1
Individualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence · Full-PPR range 0.2–16.0
Today
Matchupvs DAL · Unknown
Role and prior workload25% offense · backward-looking, not a starter or share inference
Projected opportunities10.6
ProjectionIndividualized projection — backed by 2025 production · Insufficient Evidence · 80% Full-PPR 0.2–16.0
Matchup explanation
Team run environment does not infer carry share, target share, starter status, snap share, blocking assignment or replacement effect. Pressure, individual coverage and replacement effects remain unavailable.
- Current Role
- State
- available
- Team Abbr
- SF
- Depth Rank
- 2
- Position Code
- RB
- Depth Position
- RB
- Evidence Label
- current_2026_official_preseason_depth
- Roster Membership
- active
- Formal Roster Status
- active
- Source Manifest Hash
- e733c717581d2a3484fa508fa459ba9062e63520f5c4bc4a0f9c042aea58b440
- Prior Observed Role
- State
- available
- Game Id
- 2026_09_LV_SF
- Team Abbr
- SF
- Depth Rank
- 2
- Defense Pct
- 0
- Offense Pct
- 0.25
- Season Type
- REG
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 9
- Derived Role
- primary_backup
- Starter State
- not_supported
- Evidence Label
- same_season_prior_week_observed_role
- Special Teams Pct
- 0.19
- Source Manifest Hash
- e724ca797c8dfbf355d091b5d73293c3f6e92e9e38d551b36398ce73332ac769
- Role Continuity Games
- 1
- Context
- State
- unknown
- Game Id
- 10664
- Position
- RB
- Role
- State
- supported_current_official_depth
- Label
- RB2
- Depth Rank
- 2
- Boundary
- Official depth is role context; it does not establish starter status, snap share or workload share.
- Availability
- State
- unknown
- Headline
- —
- Boundary
- Unknown, not-yet-available and reserve-unknown are not healthy, active, available or reduced-usage conclusions.
- Prior Role
- State
- available
- Offense Pct
- 0.25
- Derived Role
- primary_backup
- Evidence Label
- same_season_prior_week_observed_role
- Boundary
- Backward-looking observed workload does not establish current workload or starter status.
- Projection
- Basis
- evidence_backed_individualized_projection
- Boundary
- P9 matchup environments explain context only and do not change the accepted P5 player projection.
- Unit
- —
- Passing
- —
- Scoring Opportunity
- Player
- State
- unknown
- Reason
- No supported prior scoring-opportunity evidence
- Team Matchup
- State
- unknown
- Reason
- No supported prior team scoring-opportunity evidence
- Boundary
- Prior 2025 scoring-opportunity evidence is explanation only and does not change P5 or calculate touchdown probability.
- Individual Coverage
- unknown_team_environment_is_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Replacement Effect
- unknown_not_inferred_from_depth_or_availability
- Primary Context
- 0
- run
- Broader Context
- 0
- passing
- Individual Blocking Assignment
- unknown_team_run_environment_is_not_individual_assignment_evidence
- Boundary
- Team run environment does not infer carry share, target share, starter status, snap share, blocking assignment or replacement effect.
Current touchdown outlook
26.2% anytime TD. Correlation is explanation only.
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 10
- Game Id
- 10664
- Player Id
- 2471
- Team Id
- 60
- Opponent Team Id
- 41
- Position Code
- RB
- Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Support State
- supported_anytime
- Projection State
- individualized
- Anytime Probability
- 0.2620000000
- Exactly One Probability
- 0.2157000000
- Two Plus Probability
- 0.0463000000
- Probability Json
- {"p_0": 0.738, "p_1": 0.2157, "p_2_plus": 0.0463, "p_anytime": 0.262, "multi_td_support": "supported"}
- Lineage Json
- {"p5_week_hash": "a2254ba8c0a3d262499ea5e2bb07d419b91aa632dd74faa1ca8d39f91285e627", "draw_contract": "P10 marginal summary only; cross-player draw indices are never aligned", "evidence_version": "nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1", "p10_content_hash": "d29a6db3011650bc860f83e90a59af749a5be5dfca903fee8080d39d7363e19e", "p10_model_version": "nfl_p10b_rb_signals_v1", "selection_version": "nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1", "availability_state": "unknown", "joint_model_version": "nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1", "market_is_model_input": false}
- Content Hash
- 13405e93eee97da9786dd3c2c89b3cf9414afb4c88d7b4f9ca1463e4dc116527
- Observed At
- 2026-11-09 12:15:05
- Generated At
- 2026-11-14 11:47:34
- Published At
- 2026-11-14 11:47:34
- Probability
- P 0
- 0.738
- P 1
- 0.2157
- P 2 Plus
- 0.0463
- P Anytime
- 0.262
- Multi Td Support
- supported
- Lineage
- P5 Week Hash
- a2254ba8c0a3d262499ea5e2bb07d419b91aa632dd74faa1ca8d39f91285e627
- Draw Contract
- P10 marginal summary only; cross-player draw indices are never aligned
- Evidence Version
- nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1
- P10 Content Hash
- d29a6db3011650bc860f83e90a59af749a5be5dfca903fee8080d39d7363e19e
- P10 Model Version
- nfl_p10b_rb_signals_v1
- Selection Version
- nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1
- Availability State
- unknown
- Joint Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Market Is Model Input
Touchdown Connections
Kaelon Black + Christian McCaffrey · Supported Empirical Dependence
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 2
- Game Id
- 10546
- Player A Id
- 2471
- Player B Id
- 2490
- Event A Kind
- scorer_td
- Event B Kind
- scorer_td
- Relationship Class
- same_team_rb_rb
- Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Support State
- supported_empirical_dependence
- Projection State
- fallback
- Player A Probability
- 0.3132000000
- Player B Probability
- 0.3423500000
- Both Probability
- 0.0912368750
- Either Probability
- 0.5643131250
- Exactly One Probability
- 0.4730762501
- Neither Probability
- 0.4356868750
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.2665017525
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.2913054757
- Naive Probability
- 0.1072240200
- Absolute Difference
- -0.0159871450
- Relative Difference
- -0.1491004070
- Dependence Direction
- negative
- Probability Json
- {"p_a": 0.3132, "p_b": 0.34235, "both": 0.0912368749740918, "a_only": 0.2219631250259082, "b_only": 0.2511131250259082, "either": 0.5643131250259081, "neither": 0.43568687497409175, "simulation": {"seed": 1066691117, "draw_count": 20000, "simulated_both": 0.09365, "absolute_error_from_analytic": 0.002413125025908208}, "exactly_one": 0.4730762500518164, "naive_independence": 0.10722402, "absolute_difference": -0.0159871450259082, "relative_difference": -0.1491004070348062, "dependence_direction": "negative", "conditional_a_given_b": 0.26650175251669866, "conditional_b_given_a": 0.29130547565163406}
- Explanation Json
- {"short": "Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.", "football_structure": "Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.", "dependence_direction": "negative"}
- Lineage Json
- {"p10_a": {"content_hash": "f8ccf41eb433c7b8aaf8b73c942caa9f409d525a693a93ea9361a1df884e215d", "model_version": "nfl_p10b_rb_empirical_v3"}, "p10_b": {"content_hash": "3f5a41fac9fed0814674e10268957bb89aaacc435b5100fb943bbff999eade61", "model_version": "nfl_p10b_rb_signals_v1"}, "odds_ratio": 0.7131725768321513, "pair_order": "ascending canonical player_id", "p5_week_hash": "d29eadad3b5c88c27d20fafd4be6fa1d5fbe0b44036b8dc0bd9f724b5849a09a", "evidence_version": "nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1", "selection_version": "nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1", "selected_candidate": "class_or_shrink_0", "joint_model_version": "nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1", "market_is_model_input": false, "cross_player_p10_draw_alignment": "prohibited"}
- Content Hash
- 75fc837fb7191515acb7f8d853f2ae18800a8d1cea8f70c63037ae0ce1ffd1e4
- Observed At
- 2026-09-12 07:30:04
- Generated At
- 2026-09-18 00:03:07
- Published At
- 2026-09-18 00:03:07
- Player A Name
- Kaelon Black
- Player B Name
- Christian McCaffrey
- Probability
- P A
- 0.3132
- P B
- 0.34235
- Both
- 0.091236874974092
- A Only
- 0.22196312502591
- B Only
- 0.25111312502591
- Either
- 0.56431312502591
- Neither
- 0.43568687497409
- Simulation
- Seed
- 1066691117
- Draw Count
- 20000
- Simulated Both
- 0.09365
- Absolute Error From Analytic
- 0.0024131250259082
- Exactly One
- 0.47307625005182
- Naive Independence
- 0.10722402
- Absolute Difference
- -0.015987145025908
- Relative Difference
- -0.14910040703481
- Dependence Direction
- negative
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.2665017525167
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.29130547565163
- Explanation
- Short
- Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.
- Football Structure
- Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.
- Dependence Direction
- negative
- Lineage
- P10 A
- Content Hash
- f8ccf41eb433c7b8aaf8b73c942caa9f409d525a693a93ea9361a1df884e215d
- Model Version
- nfl_p10b_rb_empirical_v3
- P10 B
- Content Hash
- 3f5a41fac9fed0814674e10268957bb89aaacc435b5100fb943bbff999eade61
- Model Version
- nfl_p10b_rb_signals_v1
- Odds Ratio
- 0.71317257683215
- Pair Order
- ascending canonical player_id
- P5 Week Hash
- d29eadad3b5c88c27d20fafd4be6fa1d5fbe0b44036b8dc0bd9f724b5849a09a
- Evidence Version
- nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1
- Selection Version
- nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1
- Selected Candidate
- class_or_shrink_0
- Joint Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Market Is Model Input
- Cross Player P10 Draw Alignment
- prohibited
Kaelon Black + Christian McCaffrey · Supported Empirical Dependence
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 10
- Game Id
- 10664
- Player A Id
- 2471
- Player B Id
- 2490
- Event A Kind
- scorer_td
- Event B Kind
- scorer_td
- Relationship Class
- same_team_rb_rb
- Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Support State
- supported_empirical_dependence
- Projection State
- individualized
- Player A Probability
- 0.2620000000
- Player B Probability
- 0.4439000000
- Both Probability
- 0.1003767569
- Either Probability
- 0.6055232431
- Exactly One Probability
- 0.5051464861
- Neither Probability
- 0.3944767569
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.2261247059
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.3831173929
- Naive Probability
- 0.1163018000
- Absolute Difference
- -0.0159250431
- Relative Difference
- -0.1369286035
- Dependence Direction
- negative
- Probability Json
- {"p_a": 0.262, "p_b": 0.4439, "both": 0.10037675694240147, "a_only": 0.16162324305759854, "b_only": 0.3435232430575985, "either": 0.6055232430575985, "neither": 0.3944767569424015, "simulation": {"seed": 1078491117, "draw_count": 20000, "simulated_both": 0.10355, "absolute_error_from_analytic": 0.0031732430575985293}, "exactly_one": 0.5051464861151971, "naive_independence": 0.1163018, "absolute_difference": -0.015925043057598537, "relative_difference": -0.1369286034919368, "dependence_direction": "negative", "conditional_a_given_b": 0.22612470588511255, "conditional_b_given_a": 0.3831173929099293}
- Explanation Json
- {"short": "Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.", "football_structure": "Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.", "dependence_direction": "negative"}
- Lineage Json
- {"p10_a": {"content_hash": "d29a6db3011650bc860f83e90a59af749a5be5dfca903fee8080d39d7363e19e", "model_version": "nfl_p10b_rb_signals_v1"}, "p10_b": {"content_hash": "d876acf5aec48df9262376c156b3052ec9627d74a7c41441bcc7489e09dc75ca", "model_version": "nfl_p10b_rb_signals_v1"}, "odds_ratio": 0.7131725768321513, "pair_order": "ascending canonical player_id", "p5_week_hash": "47eb41ad84521bcfade5202803fcdab72fc1e00652bcbd03c86e79508a6afd60", "evidence_version": "nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1", "selection_version": "nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1", "selected_candidate": "class_or_shrink_0", "joint_model_version": "nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1", "market_is_model_input": false, "cross_player_p10_draw_alignment": "prohibited"}
- Content Hash
- b5bc5f1bf1e22b4f7166adf0f2340306a399e777b537252940392600957f33cf
- Observed At
- 2026-11-14 10:45:28
- Generated At
- 2026-11-14 11:47:34
- Published At
- 2026-11-14 11:47:34
- Player A Name
- Kaelon Black
- Player B Name
- Christian McCaffrey
- Probability
- P A
- 0.262
- P B
- 0.4439
- Both
- 0.1003767569424
- A Only
- 0.1616232430576
- B Only
- 0.3435232430576
- Either
- 0.6055232430576
- Neither
- 0.3944767569424
- Simulation
- Seed
- 1078491117
- Draw Count
- 20000
- Simulated Both
- 0.10355
- Absolute Error From Analytic
- 0.0031732430575985
- Exactly One
- 0.5051464861152
- Naive Independence
- 0.1163018
- Absolute Difference
- -0.015925043057599
- Relative Difference
- -0.13692860349194
- Dependence Direction
- negative
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.22612470588511
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.38311739290993
- Explanation
- Short
- Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.
- Football Structure
- Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.
- Dependence Direction
- negative
- Lineage
- P10 A
- Content Hash
- d29a6db3011650bc860f83e90a59af749a5be5dfca903fee8080d39d7363e19e
- Model Version
- nfl_p10b_rb_signals_v1
- P10 B
- Content Hash
- d876acf5aec48df9262376c156b3052ec9627d74a7c41441bcc7489e09dc75ca
- Model Version
- nfl_p10b_rb_signals_v1
- Odds Ratio
- 0.71317257683215
- Pair Order
- ascending canonical player_id
- P5 Week Hash
- 47eb41ad84521bcfade5202803fcdab72fc1e00652bcbd03c86e79508a6afd60
- Evidence Version
- nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1
- Selection Version
- nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1
- Selected Candidate
- class_or_shrink_0
- Joint Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Market Is Model Input
- Cross Player P10 Draw Alignment
- prohibited
Kaelon Black + Christian McCaffrey · Supported Empirical Dependence
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 9
- Game Id
- 10648
- Player A Id
- 2471
- Player B Id
- 2490
- Event A Kind
- scorer_td
- Event B Kind
- scorer_td
- Relationship Class
- same_team_rb_rb
- Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Support State
- supported_empirical_dependence
- Projection State
- individualized
- Player A Probability
- 0.2487500000
- Player B Probability
- 0.4749000000
- Both Probability
- 0.1025114535
- Either Probability
- 0.6211385465
- Exactly One Probability
- 0.5186270931
- Neither Probability
- 0.3788614535
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.2158590302
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.4121063455
- Naive Probability
- 0.1181313750
- Absolute Difference
- -0.0156199215
- Relative Difference
- -0.1322250041
- Dependence Direction
- negative
- Probability Json
- {"p_a": 0.24875, "p_b": 0.4749, "both": 0.10251145345087688, "a_only": 0.14623854654912313, "b_only": 0.3723885465491231, "either": 0.6211385465491231, "neither": 0.3788614534508769, "simulation": {"seed": 1076891117, "draw_count": 20000, "simulated_both": 0.0998, "absolute_error_from_analytic": 0.002711453450876866}, "exactly_one": 0.5186270930982463, "naive_independence": 0.118131375, "absolute_difference": -0.01561992154912313, "relative_difference": -0.1322250041457922, "dependence_direction": "negative", "conditional_a_given_b": 0.2158590302187342, "conditional_b_given_a": 0.41210634553116327}
- Explanation Json
- {"short": "Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.", "football_structure": "Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.", "dependence_direction": "negative"}
- Lineage Json
- {"p10_a": {"content_hash": "89c46be423b4bbed14ae0201c607874b65ec1094570e419d3122bea49104cae8", "model_version": "nfl_p10b_rb_signals_v1"}, "p10_b": {"content_hash": "e94d3d3451c9fe576f424ef3e7f7768a2b89deb2910397fb378f2d9240041b89", "model_version": "nfl_p10b_rb_signals_v1"}, "odds_ratio": 0.7131725768321513, "pair_order": "ascending canonical player_id", "p5_week_hash": "89129c803a1505f4bc48cd95c5b75004ff620bd31d54f2ba685dd7ac1784a94a", "evidence_version": "nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1", "selection_version": "nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1", "selected_candidate": "class_or_shrink_0", "joint_model_version": "nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1", "market_is_model_input": false, "cross_player_p10_draw_alignment": "prohibited"}
- Content Hash
- 0927b6ba5b6343a6d2345a4edc97f36d4caa6ee9aed710e58257c5fa2d90434f
- Observed At
- 2026-11-08 10:30:01
- Generated At
- 2026-11-08 11:49:26
- Published At
- 2026-11-08 11:49:26
- Player A Name
- Kaelon Black
- Player B Name
- Christian McCaffrey
- Probability
- P A
- 0.24875
- P B
- 0.4749
- Both
- 0.10251145345088
- A Only
- 0.14623854654912
- B Only
- 0.37238854654912
- Either
- 0.62113854654912
- Neither
- 0.37886145345088
- Simulation
- Seed
- 1076891117
- Draw Count
- 20000
- Simulated Both
- 0.0998
- Absolute Error From Analytic
- 0.0027114534508769
- Exactly One
- 0.51862709309825
- Naive Independence
- 0.118131375
- Absolute Difference
- -0.015619921549123
- Relative Difference
- -0.13222500414579
- Dependence Direction
- negative
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.21585903021873
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.41210634553116
- Explanation
- Short
- Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.
- Football Structure
- Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.
- Dependence Direction
- negative
- Lineage
- P10 A
- Content Hash
- 89c46be423b4bbed14ae0201c607874b65ec1094570e419d3122bea49104cae8
- Model Version
- nfl_p10b_rb_signals_v1
- P10 B
- Content Hash
- e94d3d3451c9fe576f424ef3e7f7768a2b89deb2910397fb378f2d9240041b89
- Model Version
- nfl_p10b_rb_signals_v1
- Odds Ratio
- 0.71317257683215
- Pair Order
- ascending canonical player_id
- P5 Week Hash
- 89129c803a1505f4bc48cd95c5b75004ff620bd31d54f2ba685dd7ac1784a94a
- Evidence Version
- nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1
- Selection Version
- nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1
- Selected Candidate
- class_or_shrink_0
- Joint Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Market Is Model Input
- Cross Player P10 Draw Alignment
- prohibited
Kaelon Black + Christian McCaffrey · Supported Empirical Dependence
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 5
- Game Id
- 10593
- Player A Id
- 2471
- Player B Id
- 2490
- Event A Kind
- scorer_td
- Event B Kind
- scorer_td
- Relationship Class
- same_team_rb_rb
- Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Support State
- supported_empirical_dependence
- Projection State
- fallback
- Player A Probability
- 0.2319500000
- Player B Probability
- 0.4079000000
- Both Probability
- 0.0803726486
- Either Probability
- 0.5594773514
- Exactly One Probability
- 0.4791047027
- Neither Probability
- 0.4405226486
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.1970400800
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.3465085089
- Naive Probability
- 0.0946124050
- Absolute Difference
- -0.0142397564
- Relative Difference
- -0.1505062296
- Dependence Direction
- negative
- Probability Json
- {"p_a": 0.23195, "p_b": 0.4079, "both": 0.08037264864791938, "a_only": 0.1515773513520806, "b_only": 0.3275273513520806, "either": 0.5594773513520805, "neither": 0.4405226486479194, "simulation": {"seed": 1071391117, "draw_count": 20000, "simulated_both": 0.0808, "absolute_error_from_analytic": 0.00042735135208062103}, "exactly_one": 0.4791047027041612, "naive_independence": 0.094612405, "absolute_difference": -0.01423975635208062, "relative_difference": -0.15050622962264432, "dependence_direction": "negative", "conditional_a_given_b": 0.19704008003902765, "conditional_b_given_a": 0.34650850893692337}
- Explanation Json
- {"short": "Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.", "football_structure": "Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.", "dependence_direction": "negative"}
- Lineage Json
- {"p10_a": {"content_hash": "db7edd22bb106987604770bfc15936475487f29f8b2a136fa2aa76dab28eb549", "model_version": "nfl_p10b_rb_signals_v1"}, "p10_b": {"content_hash": "d14cc5fa07bb4ad0c409f684ae490fa7c3ec6850ea3902fb20b7865a64453bc0", "model_version": "nfl_p10b_rb_signals_v1"}, "odds_ratio": 0.7131725768321513, "pair_order": "ascending canonical player_id", "p5_week_hash": "a22618b1295121dc2feb665608ebc05ca4748ef9ecc0b84be4b754062b692cec", "evidence_version": "nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1", "selection_version": "nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1", "selected_candidate": "class_or_shrink_0", "joint_model_version": "nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1", "market_is_model_input": false, "cross_player_p10_draw_alignment": "prohibited"}
- Content Hash
- 7485dbef5116c4868d70751c8d99072a6dfb9385761bb321e2e1a6e316bbb2c8
- Observed At
- 2026-10-11 10:20:39
- Generated At
- 2026-10-11 11:42:11
- Published At
- 2026-10-11 11:42:11
- Player A Name
- Kaelon Black
- Player B Name
- Christian McCaffrey
- Probability
- P A
- 0.23195
- P B
- 0.4079
- Both
- 0.080372648647919
- A Only
- 0.15157735135208
- B Only
- 0.32752735135208
- Either
- 0.55947735135208
- Neither
- 0.44052264864792
- Simulation
- Seed
- 1071391117
- Draw Count
- 20000
- Simulated Both
- 0.0808
- Absolute Error From Analytic
- 0.00042735135208062
- Exactly One
- 0.47910470270416
- Naive Independence
- 0.094612405
- Absolute Difference
- -0.014239756352081
- Relative Difference
- -0.15050622962264
- Dependence Direction
- negative
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.19704008003903
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.34650850893692
- Explanation
- Short
- Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.
- Football Structure
- Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.
- Dependence Direction
- negative
- Lineage
- P10 A
- Content Hash
- db7edd22bb106987604770bfc15936475487f29f8b2a136fa2aa76dab28eb549
- Model Version
- nfl_p10b_rb_signals_v1
- P10 B
- Content Hash
- d14cc5fa07bb4ad0c409f684ae490fa7c3ec6850ea3902fb20b7865a64453bc0
- Model Version
- nfl_p10b_rb_signals_v1
- Odds Ratio
- 0.71317257683215
- Pair Order
- ascending canonical player_id
- P5 Week Hash
- a22618b1295121dc2feb665608ebc05ca4748ef9ecc0b84be4b754062b692cec
- Evidence Version
- nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1
- Selection Version
- nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1
- Selected Candidate
- class_or_shrink_0
- Joint Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Market Is Model Input
- Cross Player P10 Draw Alignment
- prohibited
Kaelon Black + Christian McCaffrey · Supported Empirical Dependence
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 6
- Game Id
- 10609
- Player A Id
- 2471
- Player B Id
- 2490
- Event A Kind
- scorer_td
- Event B Kind
- scorer_td
- Relationship Class
- same_team_rb_rb
- Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Support State
- supported_empirical_dependence
- Projection State
- individualized
- Player A Probability
- 0.2137000000
- Player B Probability
- 0.4602000000
- Both Probability
- 0.0844088009
- Either Probability
- 0.5894911991
- Exactly One Probability
- 0.5050823982
- Neither Probability
- 0.4105088009
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.1834176465
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.3949873697
- Naive Probability
- 0.0983447400
- Absolute Difference
- -0.0139359391
- Relative Difference
- -0.1417049767
- Dependence Direction
- negative
- Probability Json
- {"p_a": 0.2137, "p_b": 0.4602, "both": 0.08440880091420332, "a_only": 0.12929119908579667, "b_only": 0.3757911990857966, "either": 0.5894911990857967, "neither": 0.4105088009142034, "simulation": {"seed": 1072991117, "draw_count": 20000, "simulated_both": 0.0839, "absolute_error_from_analytic": 0.000508800914203314}, "exactly_one": 0.5050823981715933, "naive_independence": 0.09834474, "absolute_difference": -0.013935939085796684, "relative_difference": -0.14170497665453877, "dependence_direction": "negative", "conditional_a_given_b": 0.18341764648892503, "conditional_b_given_a": 0.3949873697435813}
- Explanation Json
- {"short": "Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.", "football_structure": "Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.", "dependence_direction": "negative"}
- Lineage Json
- {"p10_a": {"content_hash": "8b46d994cd03aa4e6c93362e376f24978b5cd7259da32e313dcded8cfe8f719f", "model_version": "nfl_p10b_rb_signals_v1"}, "p10_b": {"content_hash": "471be6180e2234ddfef82518aa9433daa661ce7dfaf68c344bd736bfb4261c5a", "model_version": "nfl_p10b_rb_signals_v1"}, "odds_ratio": 0.7131725768321513, "pair_order": "ascending canonical player_id", "p5_week_hash": "2756af9cfd0e102960aa259fd190a7120e93eb926ddc2f3089a38a0c2010be78", "evidence_version": "nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1", "selection_version": "nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1", "selected_candidate": "class_or_shrink_0", "joint_model_version": "nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1", "market_is_model_input": false, "cross_player_p10_draw_alignment": "prohibited"}
- Content Hash
- bcb2198e799a98274d2a5ff536ae7b07abaaa2c9c253d6f6a2a858897189944c
- Observed At
- 2026-10-16 10:19:58
- Generated At
- 2026-10-16 11:36:55
- Published At
- 2026-10-16 11:36:55
- Player A Name
- Kaelon Black
- Player B Name
- Christian McCaffrey
- Probability
- P A
- 0.2137
- P B
- 0.4602
- Both
- 0.084408800914203
- A Only
- 0.1292911990858
- B Only
- 0.3757911990858
- Either
- 0.5894911990858
- Neither
- 0.4105088009142
- Simulation
- Seed
- 1072991117
- Draw Count
- 20000
- Simulated Both
- 0.0839
- Absolute Error From Analytic
- 0.00050880091420331
- Exactly One
- 0.50508239817159
- Naive Independence
- 0.09834474
- Absolute Difference
- -0.013935939085797
- Relative Difference
- -0.14170497665454
- Dependence Direction
- negative
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.18341764648893
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.39498736974358
- Explanation
- Short
- Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.
- Football Structure
- Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.
- Dependence Direction
- negative
- Lineage
- P10 A
- Content Hash
- 8b46d994cd03aa4e6c93362e376f24978b5cd7259da32e313dcded8cfe8f719f
- Model Version
- nfl_p10b_rb_signals_v1
- P10 B
- Content Hash
- 471be6180e2234ddfef82518aa9433daa661ce7dfaf68c344bd736bfb4261c5a
- Model Version
- nfl_p10b_rb_signals_v1
- Odds Ratio
- 0.71317257683215
- Pair Order
- ascending canonical player_id
- P5 Week Hash
- 2756af9cfd0e102960aa259fd190a7120e93eb926ddc2f3089a38a0c2010be78
- Evidence Version
- nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1
- Selection Version
- nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1
- Selected Candidate
- class_or_shrink_0
- Joint Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Market Is Model Input
- Cross Player P10 Draw Alignment
- prohibited
Kaelon Black + Christian McCaffrey · Supported Empirical Dependence
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 7
- Game Id
- 10612
- Player A Id
- 2471
- Player B Id
- 2490
- Event A Kind
- scorer_td
- Event B Kind
- scorer_td
- Relationship Class
- same_team_rb_rb
- Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Support State
- supported_empirical_dependence
- Projection State
- individualized
- Player A Probability
- 0.2131500000
- Player B Probability
- 0.4579500000
- Both Probability
- 0.0837189486
- Either Probability
- 0.5873810514
- Exactly One Probability
- 0.5036621027
- Neither Probability
- 0.4126189486
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.1828124220
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.3927701085
- Naive Probability
- 0.0976120425
- Absolute Difference
- -0.0138930939
- Relative Difference
- -0.1423297117
- Dependence Direction
- negative
- Probability Json
- {"p_a": 0.21315, "p_b": 0.45795, "both": 0.08371894863451827, "a_only": 0.12943105136548172, "b_only": 0.37423105136548174, "either": 0.5873810513654818, "neither": 0.4126189486345183, "simulation": {"seed": 1073291117, "draw_count": 20000, "simulated_both": 0.08385, "absolute_error_from_analytic": 0.00013105136548172136}, "exactly_one": 0.5036621027309635, "naive_independence": 0.0976120425, "absolute_difference": -0.013893093865481735, "relative_difference": -0.1423297116795987, "dependence_direction": "negative", "conditional_a_given_b": 0.18281242195549355, "conditional_b_given_a": 0.3927701085363278}
- Explanation Json
- {"short": "Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.", "football_structure": "Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.", "dependence_direction": "negative"}
- Lineage Json
- {"p10_a": {"content_hash": "f6cdf72d4356a97783eaa298a78aef27159d98511f521c38c4b49b733d0b1ea8", "model_version": "nfl_p10b_rb_signals_v1"}, "p10_b": {"content_hash": "ecff790f7bc8dcb5d03e089d065fab7d26f5f69e2e6daed557c9e24c69df4574", "model_version": "nfl_p10b_rb_signals_v1"}, "odds_ratio": 0.7131725768321513, "pair_order": "ascending canonical player_id", "p5_week_hash": "999566246de42cafd748847849e9b10c6cef3b02f92521b6a4d4873e86423600", "evidence_version": "nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1", "selection_version": "nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1", "selected_candidate": "class_or_shrink_0", "joint_model_version": "nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1", "market_is_model_input": false, "cross_player_p10_draw_alignment": "prohibited"}
- Content Hash
- ea256452aed322277fd4c851656bfd2ed10419c8e8e813410659b922a6c0b17c
- Observed At
- 2026-10-20 12:15:20
- Generated At
- 2026-10-25 16:51:37
- Published At
- 2026-10-25 16:51:37
- Player A Name
- Kaelon Black
- Player B Name
- Christian McCaffrey
- Probability
- P A
- 0.21315
- P B
- 0.45795
- Both
- 0.083718948634518
- A Only
- 0.12943105136548
- B Only
- 0.37423105136548
- Either
- 0.58738105136548
- Neither
- 0.41261894863452
- Simulation
- Seed
- 1073291117
- Draw Count
- 20000
- Simulated Both
- 0.08385
- Absolute Error From Analytic
- 0.00013105136548172
- Exactly One
- 0.50366210273096
- Naive Independence
- 0.0976120425
- Absolute Difference
- -0.013893093865482
- Relative Difference
- -0.1423297116796
- Dependence Direction
- negative
- Conditional A Given B
- 0.18281242195549
- Conditional B Given A
- 0.39277010853633
- Explanation
- Short
- Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.
- Football Structure
- Both backs share rushing environment but compete directly for the same rushing-TD allocation.
- Dependence Direction
- negative
- Lineage
- P10 A
- Content Hash
- f6cdf72d4356a97783eaa298a78aef27159d98511f521c38c4b49b733d0b1ea8
- Model Version
- nfl_p10b_rb_signals_v1
- P10 B
- Content Hash
- ecff790f7bc8dcb5d03e089d065fab7d26f5f69e2e6daed557c9e24c69df4574
- Model Version
- nfl_p10b_rb_signals_v1
- Odds Ratio
- 0.71317257683215
- Pair Order
- ascending canonical player_id
- P5 Week Hash
- 999566246de42cafd748847849e9b10c6cef3b02f92521b6a4d4873e86423600
- Evidence Version
- nflverse_weekly_td_joint_2012_2025_v1
- Selection Version
- nfl_p12_2023_selection_v1
- Selected Candidate
- class_or_shrink_0
- Joint Model Version
- nfl_p12_touchdown_joint_v1
- Market Is Model Input
- Cross Player P10 Draw Alignment
- prohibited
Season
Regular season and postseason stay separate; only supported values are shown.
Season production unavailable.
Games
Official game evidence
Published provider box-score evidence by category; it does not imply a start or snap share.
2026 regular · Week 9 · kickReturns · provider espn
SF vs LV · NO 1 · YDS 31 · AVG 31.0 · LONG 31 · TD 0
- Labels
- 0
- NO
- 1
- YDS
- 2
- AVG
- 3
- LONG
- 4
- TD
- Values
- 0
- 1
- 1
- 31
- 2
- 31.0
- 3
- 31
- 4
- 0
2026 regular · Week 9 · rushing · provider espn
SF vs LV · CAR 11 · YDS 70 · AVG 6.4 · TD 0 · LONG 18
- Labels
- 0
- CAR
- 1
- YDS
- 2
- AVG
- 3
- TD
- 4
- LONG
- Values
- 0
- 11
- 1
- 70
- 2
- 6.4
- 3
- 0
- 4
- 18
2026 regular · Week 7 · fumbles · provider espn
SF vs ATL · FUM 1 · LOST 1 · REC 0
- Labels
- 0
- FUM
- 1
- LOST
- 2
- REC
- Values
- 0
- 1
- 1
- 1
- 2
- 0
2026 regular · Week 7 · kickReturns · provider espn
SF vs ATL · NO 1 · YDS 34 · AVG 34.0 · LONG 34 · TD 0
- Labels
- 0
- NO
- 1
- YDS
- 2
- AVG
- 3
- LONG
- 4
- TD
- Values
- 0
- 1
- 1
- 34
- 2
- 34.0
- 3
- 34
- 4
- 0
2026 regular · Week 7 · receiving · provider espn
SF vs ATL · REC 1 · YDS -4 · AVG -4.0 · TD 0 · LONG -4 · TGTS 3
- Labels
- 0
- REC
- 1
- YDS
- 2
- AVG
- 3
- TD
- 4
- LONG
- 5
- TGTS
- Values
- 0
- 1
- 1
- -4
- 2
- -4.0
- 3
- 0
- 4
- -4
- 5
- 3
2026 regular · Week 7 · rushing · provider espn
SF vs ATL · CAR 12 · YDS 63 · AVG 5.3 · TD 1 · LONG 30
- Labels
- 0
- CAR
- 1
- YDS
- 2
- AVG
- 3
- TD
- 4
- LONG
- Values
- 0
- 12
- 1
- 63
- 2
- 5.3
- 3
- 1
- 4
- 30
2026 regular · Week 6 · receiving · provider espn
SF vs WAS · REC 1 · YDS 3 · AVG 3.0 · TD 0 · LONG 3 · TGTS 1
- Labels
- 0
- REC
- 1
- YDS
- 2
- AVG
- 3
- TD
- 4
- LONG
- 5
- TGTS
- Values
- 0
- 1
- 1
- 3
- 2
- 3.0
- 3
- 0
- 4
- 3
- 5
- 1
2026 regular · Week 6 · rushing · provider espn
SF vs WAS · CAR 8 · YDS 34 · AVG 4.3 · TD 0 · LONG 9
- Labels
- 0
- CAR
- 1
- YDS
- 2
- AVG
- 3
- TD
- 4
- LONG
- Values
- 0
- 8
- 1
- 34
- 2
- 4.3
- 3
- 0
- 4
- 9
2026 regular · Week 5 · rushing · provider espn
SF vs SEA · CAR 6 · YDS 16 · AVG 2.7 · TD 0 · LONG 11
- Labels
- 0
- CAR
- 1
- YDS
- 2
- AVG
- 3
- TD
- 4
- LONG
- Values
- 0
- 6
- 1
- 16
- 2
- 2.7
- 3
- 0
- 4
- 11
2026 regular · Week 4 · rushing · provider espn
SF vs DEN · CAR 6 · YDS 13 · AVG 2.2 · TD 0 · LONG 5
- Labels
- 0
- CAR
- 1
- YDS
- 2
- AVG
- 3
- TD
- 4
- LONG
- Values
- 0
- 6
- 1
- 13
- 2
- 2.2
- 3
- 0
- 4
- 5
2026 regular · Week 3 · receiving · provider espn
SF vs ARI · REC 0 · YDS 0 · AVG 0.0 · TD 0 · LONG 0 · TGTS 1
- Labels
- 0
- REC
- 1
- YDS
- 2
- AVG
- 3
- TD
- 4
- LONG
- 5
- TGTS
- Values
- 0
- 0
- 1
- 0
- 2
- 0.0
- 3
- 0
- 4
- 0
- 5
- 1
2026 regular · Week 3 · rushing · provider espn
SF vs ARI · CAR 4 · YDS 17 · AVG 4.3 · TD 0 · LONG 9
- Labels
- 0
- CAR
- 1
- YDS
- 2
- AVG
- 3
- TD
- 4
- LONG
- Values
- 0
- 4
- 1
- 17
- 2
- 4.3
- 3
- 0
- 4
- 9
2026 regular · Week 2 · rushing · provider espn
SF vs MIA · CAR 7 · YDS 25 · AVG 3.6 · TD 0 · LONG 6
- Labels
- 0
- CAR
- 1
- YDS
- 2
- AVG
- 3
- TD
- 4
- LONG
- Values
- 0
- 7
- 1
- 25
- 2
- 3.6
- 3
- 0
- 4
- 6
2026 regular · Week 1 · receiving · provider espn
SF vs LAR · REC 1 · YDS 5 · AVG 5.0 · TD 0 · LONG 5 · TGTS 1
- Labels
- 0
- REC
- 1
- YDS
- 2
- AVG
- 3
- TD
- 4
- LONG
- 5
- TGTS
- Values
- 0
- 1
- 1
- 5
- 2
- 5.0
- 3
- 0
- 4
- 5
- 5
- 1
2026 regular · Week 1 · rushing · provider espn
SF vs LAR · CAR 14 · YDS 65 · AVG 4.6 · TD 0 · LONG 14
- Labels
- 0
- CAR
- 1
- YDS
- 2
- AVG
- 3
- TD
- 4
- LONG
- Values
- 0
- 14
- 1
- 65
- 2
- 4.6
- 3
- 0
- 4
- 14
2026 preseason · Week 4 · receiving · provider espn
SF vs LV · REC 0 · YDS 0 · AVG 0.0 · TD 0 · LONG 0 · TGTS 1
- Labels
- 0
- REC
- 1
- YDS
- 2
- AVG
- 3
- TD
- 4
- LONG
- 5
- TGTS
- Values
- 0
- 0
- 1
- 0
- 2
- 0.0
- 3
- 0
- 4
- 0
- 5
- 1
2026 preseason · Week 4 · rushing · provider espn
SF vs LV · CAR 4 · YDS 28 · AVG 7.0 · TD 0 · LONG 14
- Labels
- 0
- CAR
- 1
- YDS
- 2
- AVG
- 3
- TD
- 4
- LONG
- Values
- 0
- 4
- 1
- 28
- 2
- 7.0
- 3
- 0
- 4
- 14
2026 preseason · Week 3 · rushing · provider espn
SF vs LAC · CAR 8 · YDS 33 · AVG 4.1 · TD 0 · LONG 9
- Labels
- 0
- CAR
- 1
- YDS
- 2
- AVG
- 3
- TD
- 4
- LONG
- Values
- 0
- 8
- 1
- 33
- 2
- 4.1
- 3
- 0
- 4
- 9
Weekly history
2026 REG · Week 9 · SF vs LV
Rush Att: 11 · Targets: 0 · Receptions: 0
- Carries
- 11
- Game Id
- 10648
- Targets
- 0
- Attempts
- 0
- Receptions
- 0
- Completions
- 0
- Passing Tds
- 0
- Rushing Tds
- 0
- Fumbles Lost
- 0
- Interceptions
- 0
- Passing Yards
- 0
- Receiving Tds
- 0
- Rushing Yards
- 70
- Receiving Yards
- 0
2026 REG · Week 7 · SF vs ATL
Rush Att: 12 · Targets: 3 · Receptions: 1
- Carries
- 12
- Game Id
- 10612
- Targets
- 3
- Attempts
- 0
- Receptions
- 1
- Completions
- 0
- Passing Tds
- 0
- Rushing Tds
- 1
- Fumbles Lost
- 1
- Interceptions
- 0
- Passing Yards
- 0
- Receiving Tds
- 0
- Rushing Yards
- 63
- Receiving Yards
- -4
2026 REG · Week 6 · SF vs WAS
Rush Att: 8 · Targets: 1 · Receptions: 1
- Carries
- 8
- Game Id
- 10609
- Targets
- 1
- Attempts
- 0
- Receptions
- 1
- Completions
- 0
- Passing Tds
- 0
- Rushing Tds
- 0
- Fumbles Lost
- 0
- Interceptions
- 0
- Passing Yards
- 0
- Receiving Tds
- 0
- Rushing Yards
- 34
- Receiving Yards
- 3
2026 REG · Week 5 · SF vs SEA
Rush Att: 6 · Targets: 0 · Receptions: 0
- Carries
- 6
- Game Id
- 10593
- Targets
- 0
- Attempts
- 0
- Receptions
- 0
- Completions
- 0
- Passing Tds
- 0
- Rushing Tds
- 0
- Fumbles Lost
- 0
- Interceptions
- 0
- Passing Yards
- 0
- Receiving Tds
- 0
- Rushing Yards
- 16
- Receiving Yards
- 0
2026 REG · Week 4 · SF vs DEN
Rush Att: 6 · Targets: 0 · Receptions: 0
- Carries
- 6
- Game Id
- 10577
- Targets
- 0
- Attempts
- 0
- Receptions
- 0
- Completions
- 0
- Passing Tds
- 0
- Rushing Tds
- 0
- Fumbles Lost
- 0
- Interceptions
- 0
- Passing Yards
- 0
- Receiving Tds
- 0
- Rushing Yards
- 13
- Receiving Yards
- 0
2026 REG · Week 3 · SF vs ARI
Rush Att: 4 · Targets: 1 · Receptions: 0
- Carries
- 4
- Game Id
- 10559
- Targets
- 1
- Attempts
- 0
- Receptions
- 0
- Completions
- 0
- Passing Tds
- 0
- Rushing Tds
- 0
- Fumbles Lost
- 0
- Interceptions
- 0
- Passing Yards
- 0
- Receiving Tds
- 0
- Rushing Yards
- 17
- Receiving Yards
- 0
2026 REG · Week 2 · SF vs MIA
Rush Att: 7 · Targets: 0 · Receptions: 0
- Carries
- 7
- Game Id
- 10546
- Targets
- 0
- Attempts
- 0
- Receptions
- 0
- Completions
- 0
- Passing Tds
- 0
- Rushing Tds
- 0
- Fumbles Lost
- 0
- Interceptions
- 0
- Passing Yards
- 0
- Receiving Tds
- 0
- Rushing Yards
- 25
- Receiving Yards
- 0
2026 REG · Week 1 · SF vs LAR
Rush Att: 14 · Targets: 1 · Receptions: 1
- Carries
- 14
- Game Id
- 10518
- Targets
- 1
- Attempts
- 0
- Receptions
- 1
- Completions
- 0
- Passing Tds
- 0
- Rushing Tds
- 0
- Fumbles Lost
- 0
- Interceptions
- 0
- Passing Yards
- 0
- Receiving Tds
- 0
- Rushing Yards
- 65
- Receiving Yards
- 5
Fantasy outlook
Forward systems
Floor and ceiling are projected distribution percentiles; fumbles lost and two-point conversions remain unsupported.
Standard · 6.6 points · 2.1 floor · 5.0 median · 13.1 ceiling
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 10
- Game Id
- 10664
- Player Id
- 2471
- Team Id
- 60
- Opponent Team Id
- 41
- Position Code
- RB
- Scoring System Code
- standard
- Model Version
- nfl_p11a_forward_fantasy_v1
- Scoring Version
- pardonme_fantasy_v1
- Projection State
- individualized
- Position Rank
- 32
- Position Population
- 42
- Projected Points
- 6.5962
- Median Points
- 5.0000
- Floor Points
- 2.1000
- Ceiling Points
- 13.1000
- Projection Json
- {"state": "individualized", "summary": {"mean": 6.596175, "floor": 2.1, "median": 5.0, "ceiling": 13.1, "draw_count": 20000, "interval_80": {"lower": 2.1, "upper": 13.1}, "floor_definition": "10th percentile", "ceiling_definition": "90th percentile", "threshold_probabilities": {"8": 0.31285, "12": 0.1373, "18": 0.0358}}, "completeness": "modeled_components_only", "position_comparison": {"rank": 32, "percentile": 25.0, "population": 42, "gap_to_position_median": -1.7410349999999992}, "unsupported_components": ["two_point_conversions", "fumbles_lost"]}
- Explanation Json
- {"short": "8.6 carries and 1.1 targets; 26% chance of 1+ relevant TD; availability unknown.", "drivers": ["8.6 carries and 1.1 targets", "26% chance of 1+ relevant TD", "availability unknown"], "causal_boundary": "P10 football draws include only versioned, holdout-validated signal effects. Madden/PCA remains context only.", "historical_2025": null}
- Lineage Json
- {"model_version": "nfl_p11a_forward_fantasy_v1", "scoring_version": "pardonme_fantasy_v1", "p10_content_hash": "d29a6db3011650bc860f83e90a59af749a5be5dfca903fee8080d39d7363e19e", "p10_model_version": "nfl_p10b_rb_signals_v1", "draw_transformation": "exact deterministic P10 draws scored component-wise", "p10_reproducibility": {"seed": 106640122, "method": "empirical total opportunities centered on read-only P5; beta-binomial carry/target, catch and TD allocation; conditional empirical yards-per-carry and yards-per-reception", "simulations": 20000, "source_hash": "1c40547bae9f2c76b91f1f9554e16a06a76f047e053fdb3c4bb2d82e417ab4b7", "interval_level": 0.8, "football_signals": {"changes": {"carries": -0.8729646383541604, "targets": -0.4271104029137939}, "version": "nfl_p10_football_signals_v1", "features": {"wopr3": 0.05400067596647783, "targets3": 1.3333333333333333, "snap_last": 0.25, "air_share3": -0.0024317740077218733, "snap_mean3": 0.31666666666666665, "carry_share3": 0.35113838429622396, "own_carries8": 29.25, "own_rush_ypc8": 4.6239316239316235, "target_share3": 0.037135278514588865, "own_sack_rate8": 0.03278688524590164, "air_per_target3": -0.6666666666666666, "role_continuity": 1.0, "opponent_carries8": 28.625, "opponent_rush_ypc8": 5.074235807860262, "opportunity_share3": 0.35176651305683565, "opponent_sack_rate8": 0.05357142857142857}, "model_keys": ["role_RB_carries", "role_RB_targets"], "target_week": 10, "feature_hash": "383784c520d6a3016c75f09804b502d0f057267e9a0287501cd833f69c192a26", "artifact_hash": "abe5a601293374a3b9ce2e82747d93685f38da588d2c76877a5ff3e28360ee8b", "target_season": 2026, "missing_policy": "retain baseline for unsupported signal", "baseline_version": "nfl_p10b_rb_empirical_v3", "strict_prior_week": true, "historical_validation": "2013-2022 fit; 2023 tuning; 2024-2025 final proxy-centered draw holdout"}, "frozen_parameters": {"era_seasons": 3, "rush_td_prior_carries": 500, "catch_rate_prior_targets": 50, "opportunity_mixture_games": 4, "receiving_td_prior_targets": 100, "rush_empirical_blend_weight": 0.5, "rush_efficiency_prior_carries": 200, "carry_share_prior_opportunities": 50, "receiving_empirical_blend_weight": 0.25, "receiving_efficiency_prior_receptions": 100}, "parameter_training_cutoff": 2023}, "source_manifest_hash": "b67511ac4fc80e19ec47efddede444313017f97890ae3a659b128e882a7c281e", "unsupported_components": ["two_point_conversions", "fumbles_lost"]}
- Content Hash
- c408348fc92c7c2eadefc99ed759eef64fad2d081cdf837847934a39044f3cc7
- Observed At
- 2026-11-09 12:15:05
- Generated At
- 2026-11-14 11:40:31
- Published At
- 2026-11-14 11:40:31
- Projection
- State
- individualized
- Summary
- Mean
- 6.596175
- Floor
- 2.1
- Median
- 5
- Ceiling
- 13.1
- Draw Count
- 20000
- Interval 80
- Lower
- 2.1
- Upper
- 13.1
- Floor Definition
- 10th percentile
- Ceiling Definition
- 90th percentile
- Threshold Probabilities
- 8
- 0.31285
- 12
- 0.1373
- 18
- 0.0358
- Completeness
- modeled_components_only
- Position Comparison
- Rank
- 32
- Percentile
- 25
- Population
- 42
- Gap To Position Median
- -1.741035
- Unsupported Components
- 0
- two_point_conversions
- 1
- fumbles_lost
- Explanation
- Short
- 8.6 carries and 1.1 targets; 26% chance of 1+ relevant TD; availability unknown.
- Drivers
- 0
- 8.6 carries and 1.1 targets
- 1
- 26% chance of 1+ relevant TD
- 2
- availability unknown
- Causal Boundary
- P10 football draws include only versioned, holdout-validated signal effects. Madden/PCA remains context only.
- Historical 2025
- —
- Lineage
- Model Version
- nfl_p11a_forward_fantasy_v1
- Scoring Version
- pardonme_fantasy_v1
- P10 Content Hash
- d29a6db3011650bc860f83e90a59af749a5be5dfca903fee8080d39d7363e19e
- P10 Model Version
- nfl_p10b_rb_signals_v1
- Draw Transformation
- exact deterministic P10 draws scored component-wise
- P10 Reproducibility
- Seed
- 106640122
- Method
- empirical total opportunities centered on read-only P5; beta-binomial carry/target, catch and TD allocation; conditional empirical yards-per-carry and yards-per-reception
- Simulations
- 20000
- Source Hash
- 1c40547bae9f2c76b91f1f9554e16a06a76f047e053fdb3c4bb2d82e417ab4b7
- Interval Level
- 0.8
- Football Signals
- Changes
- Carries
- -0.87296463835416
- Targets
- -0.42711040291379
- Version
- nfl_p10_football_signals_v1
- Features
- Wopr3
- 0.054000675966478
- Targets3
- 1.3333333333333
- Snap Last
- 0.25
- Air Share3
- -0.0024317740077219
- Snap Mean3
- 0.31666666666667
- Carry Share3
- 0.35113838429622
- Own Carries8
- 29.25
- Own Rush Ypc8
- 4.6239316239316
- Target Share3
- 0.037135278514589
- Own Sack Rate8
- 0.032786885245902
- Air Per Target3
- -0.66666666666667
- Role Continuity
- 1
- Opponent Carries8
- 28.625
- Opponent Rush Ypc8
- 5.0742358078603
- Opportunity Share3
- 0.35176651305684
- Opponent Sack Rate8
- 0.053571428571429
- Model Keys
- 0
- role_RB_carries
- 1
- role_RB_targets
- Target Week
- 10
- Feature Hash
- 383784c520d6a3016c75f09804b502d0f057267e9a0287501cd833f69c192a26
- Artifact Hash
- abe5a601293374a3b9ce2e82747d93685f38da588d2c76877a5ff3e28360ee8b
- Target Season
- 2026
- Missing Policy
- retain baseline for unsupported signal
- Baseline Version
- nfl_p10b_rb_empirical_v3
- Strict Prior Week
- 1
- Historical Validation
- 2013-2022 fit; 2023 tuning; 2024-2025 final proxy-centered draw holdout
- Frozen Parameters
- Era Seasons
- 3
- Rush Td Prior Carries
- 500
- Catch Rate Prior Targets
- 50
- Opportunity Mixture Games
- 4
- Receiving Td Prior Targets
- 100
- Rush Empirical Blend Weight
- 0.5
- Rush Efficiency Prior Carries
- 200
- Carry Share Prior Opportunities
- 50
- Receiving Empirical Blend Weight
- 0.25
- Receiving Efficiency Prior Receptions
- 100
- Parameter Training Cutoff
- 2023
- Source Manifest Hash
- b67511ac4fc80e19ec47efddede444313017f97890ae3a659b128e882a7c281e
- Unsupported Components
- 0
- two_point_conversions
- 1
- fumbles_lost
Half-PPR · 7.0 points · 2.2 floor · 5.5 median · 14.0 ceiling
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 10
- Game Id
- 10664
- Player Id
- 2471
- Team Id
- 60
- Opponent Team Id
- 41
- Position Code
- RB
- Scoring System Code
- half_ppr
- Model Version
- nfl_p11a_forward_fantasy_v1
- Scoring Version
- pardonme_fantasy_v1
- Projection State
- individualized
- Position Rank
- 33
- Position Population
- 42
- Projected Points
- 7.0290
- Median Points
- 5.5000
- Floor Points
- 2.2000
- Ceiling Points
- 14.0000
- Projection Json
- {"state": "individualized", "summary": {"mean": 7.029, "floor": 2.2, "median": 5.5, "ceiling": 14.0, "draw_count": 20000, "interval_80": {"lower": 2.2, "upper": 14.0}, "floor_definition": "10th percentile", "ceiling_definition": "90th percentile", "threshold_probabilities": {"8": 0.3484, "12": 0.156, "18": 0.04345}}, "completeness": "modeled_components_only", "position_comparison": {"rank": 33, "percentile": 22.61904761904762, "population": 42, "gap_to_position_median": -2.392642500000001}, "unsupported_components": ["two_point_conversions", "fumbles_lost"]}
- Explanation Json
- {"short": "8.6 carries and 1.1 targets; 26% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown.", "drivers": ["8.6 carries and 1.1 targets", "26% chance of 1+ relevant TD", "receptions add 0.5 points each", "availability unknown"], "causal_boundary": "P10 football draws include only versioned, holdout-validated signal effects. Madden/PCA remains context only.", "historical_2025": null}
- Lineage Json
- {"model_version": "nfl_p11a_forward_fantasy_v1", "scoring_version": "pardonme_fantasy_v1", "p10_content_hash": "d29a6db3011650bc860f83e90a59af749a5be5dfca903fee8080d39d7363e19e", "p10_model_version": "nfl_p10b_rb_signals_v1", "draw_transformation": "exact deterministic P10 draws scored component-wise", "p10_reproducibility": {"seed": 106640122, "method": "empirical total opportunities centered on read-only P5; beta-binomial carry/target, catch and TD allocation; conditional empirical yards-per-carry and yards-per-reception", "simulations": 20000, "source_hash": "1c40547bae9f2c76b91f1f9554e16a06a76f047e053fdb3c4bb2d82e417ab4b7", "interval_level": 0.8, "football_signals": {"changes": {"carries": -0.8729646383541604, "targets": -0.4271104029137939}, "version": "nfl_p10_football_signals_v1", "features": {"wopr3": 0.05400067596647783, "targets3": 1.3333333333333333, "snap_last": 0.25, "air_share3": -0.0024317740077218733, "snap_mean3": 0.31666666666666665, "carry_share3": 0.35113838429622396, "own_carries8": 29.25, "own_rush_ypc8": 4.6239316239316235, "target_share3": 0.037135278514588865, "own_sack_rate8": 0.03278688524590164, "air_per_target3": -0.6666666666666666, "role_continuity": 1.0, "opponent_carries8": 28.625, "opponent_rush_ypc8": 5.074235807860262, "opportunity_share3": 0.35176651305683565, "opponent_sack_rate8": 0.05357142857142857}, "model_keys": ["role_RB_carries", "role_RB_targets"], "target_week": 10, "feature_hash": "383784c520d6a3016c75f09804b502d0f057267e9a0287501cd833f69c192a26", "artifact_hash": "abe5a601293374a3b9ce2e82747d93685f38da588d2c76877a5ff3e28360ee8b", "target_season": 2026, "missing_policy": "retain baseline for unsupported signal", "baseline_version": "nfl_p10b_rb_empirical_v3", "strict_prior_week": true, "historical_validation": "2013-2022 fit; 2023 tuning; 2024-2025 final proxy-centered draw holdout"}, "frozen_parameters": {"era_seasons": 3, "rush_td_prior_carries": 500, "catch_rate_prior_targets": 50, "opportunity_mixture_games": 4, "receiving_td_prior_targets": 100, "rush_empirical_blend_weight": 0.5, "rush_efficiency_prior_carries": 200, "carry_share_prior_opportunities": 50, "receiving_empirical_blend_weight": 0.25, "receiving_efficiency_prior_receptions": 100}, "parameter_training_cutoff": 2023}, "source_manifest_hash": "86bb9a411077f5f4e0aecad036f1c06470495657996f76f3a62fe5be8e5c3bd2", "unsupported_components": ["two_point_conversions", "fumbles_lost"]}
- Content Hash
- 26fa76bd074367a4d69bb48f5264f44c9dfb7d2b4dcf4d56f4c7eb757f221999
- Observed At
- 2026-11-09 12:15:05
- Generated At
- 2026-11-14 11:40:31
- Published At
- 2026-11-14 11:40:31
- Projection
- State
- individualized
- Summary
- Mean
- 7.029
- Floor
- 2.2
- Median
- 5.5
- Ceiling
- 14
- Draw Count
- 20000
- Interval 80
- Lower
- 2.2
- Upper
- 14
- Floor Definition
- 10th percentile
- Ceiling Definition
- 90th percentile
- Threshold Probabilities
- 8
- 0.3484
- 12
- 0.156
- 18
- 0.04345
- Completeness
- modeled_components_only
- Position Comparison
- Rank
- 33
- Percentile
- 22.619047619048
- Population
- 42
- Gap To Position Median
- -2.3926425
- Unsupported Components
- 0
- two_point_conversions
- 1
- fumbles_lost
- Explanation
- Short
- 8.6 carries and 1.1 targets; 26% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 0.5 points each; availability unknown.
- Drivers
- 0
- 8.6 carries and 1.1 targets
- 1
- 26% chance of 1+ relevant TD
- 2
- receptions add 0.5 points each
- 3
- availability unknown
- Causal Boundary
- P10 football draws include only versioned, holdout-validated signal effects. Madden/PCA remains context only.
- Historical 2025
- —
- Lineage
- Model Version
- nfl_p11a_forward_fantasy_v1
- Scoring Version
- pardonme_fantasy_v1
- P10 Content Hash
- d29a6db3011650bc860f83e90a59af749a5be5dfca903fee8080d39d7363e19e
- P10 Model Version
- nfl_p10b_rb_signals_v1
- Draw Transformation
- exact deterministic P10 draws scored component-wise
- P10 Reproducibility
- Seed
- 106640122
- Method
- empirical total opportunities centered on read-only P5; beta-binomial carry/target, catch and TD allocation; conditional empirical yards-per-carry and yards-per-reception
- Simulations
- 20000
- Source Hash
- 1c40547bae9f2c76b91f1f9554e16a06a76f047e053fdb3c4bb2d82e417ab4b7
- Interval Level
- 0.8
- Football Signals
- Changes
- Carries
- -0.87296463835416
- Targets
- -0.42711040291379
- Version
- nfl_p10_football_signals_v1
- Features
- Wopr3
- 0.054000675966478
- Targets3
- 1.3333333333333
- Snap Last
- 0.25
- Air Share3
- -0.0024317740077219
- Snap Mean3
- 0.31666666666667
- Carry Share3
- 0.35113838429622
- Own Carries8
- 29.25
- Own Rush Ypc8
- 4.6239316239316
- Target Share3
- 0.037135278514589
- Own Sack Rate8
- 0.032786885245902
- Air Per Target3
- -0.66666666666667
- Role Continuity
- 1
- Opponent Carries8
- 28.625
- Opponent Rush Ypc8
- 5.0742358078603
- Opportunity Share3
- 0.35176651305684
- Opponent Sack Rate8
- 0.053571428571429
- Model Keys
- 0
- role_RB_carries
- 1
- role_RB_targets
- Target Week
- 10
- Feature Hash
- 383784c520d6a3016c75f09804b502d0f057267e9a0287501cd833f69c192a26
- Artifact Hash
- abe5a601293374a3b9ce2e82747d93685f38da588d2c76877a5ff3e28360ee8b
- Target Season
- 2026
- Missing Policy
- retain baseline for unsupported signal
- Baseline Version
- nfl_p10b_rb_empirical_v3
- Strict Prior Week
- 1
- Historical Validation
- 2013-2022 fit; 2023 tuning; 2024-2025 final proxy-centered draw holdout
- Frozen Parameters
- Era Seasons
- 3
- Rush Td Prior Carries
- 500
- Catch Rate Prior Targets
- 50
- Opportunity Mixture Games
- 4
- Receiving Td Prior Targets
- 100
- Rush Empirical Blend Weight
- 0.5
- Rush Efficiency Prior Carries
- 200
- Carry Share Prior Opportunities
- 50
- Receiving Empirical Blend Weight
- 0.25
- Receiving Efficiency Prior Receptions
- 100
- Parameter Training Cutoff
- 2023
- Source Manifest Hash
- 86bb9a411077f5f4e0aecad036f1c06470495657996f76f3a62fe5be8e5c3bd2
- Unsupported Components
- 0
- two_point_conversions
- 1
- fumbles_lost
Full-PPR · 7.5 points · 2.2 floor · 6.0 median · 14.8 ceiling
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 10
- Game Id
- 10664
- Player Id
- 2471
- Team Id
- 60
- Opponent Team Id
- 41
- Position Code
- RB
- Scoring System Code
- full_ppr
- Model Version
- nfl_p11a_forward_fantasy_v1
- Scoring Version
- pardonme_fantasy_v1
- Projection State
- individualized
- Position Rank
- 35
- Position Population
- 42
- Projected Points
- 7.4618
- Median Points
- 6.0000
- Floor Points
- 2.2000
- Ceiling Points
- 14.8000
- Projection Json
- {"state": "individualized", "summary": {"mean": 7.461825, "floor": 2.2, "median": 6.0, "ceiling": 14.8, "draw_count": 20000, "interval_80": {"lower": 2.2, "upper": 14.8}, "floor_definition": "10th percentile", "ceiling_definition": "90th percentile", "threshold_probabilities": {"8": 0.38335, "12": 0.17775, "18": 0.05225}}, "completeness": "modeled_components_only", "position_comparison": {"rank": 35, "percentile": 17.857142857142858, "population": 42, "gap_to_position_median": -2.929072500000001}, "unsupported_components": ["two_point_conversions", "fumbles_lost"]}
- Explanation Json
- {"short": "8.6 carries and 1.1 targets; 26% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 1.0 points each; availability unknown.", "drivers": ["8.6 carries and 1.1 targets", "26% chance of 1+ relevant TD", "receptions add 1.0 points each", "availability unknown"], "causal_boundary": "P10 football draws include only versioned, holdout-validated signal effects. Madden/PCA remains context only.", "historical_2025": null}
- Lineage Json
- {"model_version": "nfl_p11a_forward_fantasy_v1", "scoring_version": "pardonme_fantasy_v1", "p10_content_hash": "d29a6db3011650bc860f83e90a59af749a5be5dfca903fee8080d39d7363e19e", "p10_model_version": "nfl_p10b_rb_signals_v1", "draw_transformation": "exact deterministic P10 draws scored component-wise", "p10_reproducibility": {"seed": 106640122, "method": "empirical total opportunities centered on read-only P5; beta-binomial carry/target, catch and TD allocation; conditional empirical yards-per-carry and yards-per-reception", "simulations": 20000, "source_hash": "1c40547bae9f2c76b91f1f9554e16a06a76f047e053fdb3c4bb2d82e417ab4b7", "interval_level": 0.8, "football_signals": {"changes": {"carries": -0.8729646383541604, "targets": -0.4271104029137939}, "version": "nfl_p10_football_signals_v1", "features": {"wopr3": 0.05400067596647783, "targets3": 1.3333333333333333, "snap_last": 0.25, "air_share3": -0.0024317740077218733, "snap_mean3": 0.31666666666666665, "carry_share3": 0.35113838429622396, "own_carries8": 29.25, "own_rush_ypc8": 4.6239316239316235, "target_share3": 0.037135278514588865, "own_sack_rate8": 0.03278688524590164, "air_per_target3": -0.6666666666666666, "role_continuity": 1.0, "opponent_carries8": 28.625, "opponent_rush_ypc8": 5.074235807860262, "opportunity_share3": 0.35176651305683565, "opponent_sack_rate8": 0.05357142857142857}, "model_keys": ["role_RB_carries", "role_RB_targets"], "target_week": 10, "feature_hash": "383784c520d6a3016c75f09804b502d0f057267e9a0287501cd833f69c192a26", "artifact_hash": "abe5a601293374a3b9ce2e82747d93685f38da588d2c76877a5ff3e28360ee8b", "target_season": 2026, "missing_policy": "retain baseline for unsupported signal", "baseline_version": "nfl_p10b_rb_empirical_v3", "strict_prior_week": true, "historical_validation": "2013-2022 fit; 2023 tuning; 2024-2025 final proxy-centered draw holdout"}, "frozen_parameters": {"era_seasons": 3, "rush_td_prior_carries": 500, "catch_rate_prior_targets": 50, "opportunity_mixture_games": 4, "receiving_td_prior_targets": 100, "rush_empirical_blend_weight": 0.5, "rush_efficiency_prior_carries": 200, "carry_share_prior_opportunities": 50, "receiving_empirical_blend_weight": 0.25, "receiving_efficiency_prior_receptions": 100}, "parameter_training_cutoff": 2023}, "source_manifest_hash": "69f663843030555edb53a105a3c765d967afe021e773915f32468505f2f2f4e9", "unsupported_components": ["two_point_conversions", "fumbles_lost"]}
- Content Hash
- d83cf91bb58dad15aa74d142f59047213e51789a496b038eeddc8305dd190665
- Observed At
- 2026-11-09 12:15:05
- Generated At
- 2026-11-14 11:40:31
- Published At
- 2026-11-14 11:40:31
- Projection
- State
- individualized
- Summary
- Mean
- 7.461825
- Floor
- 2.2
- Median
- 6
- Ceiling
- 14.8
- Draw Count
- 20000
- Interval 80
- Lower
- 2.2
- Upper
- 14.8
- Floor Definition
- 10th percentile
- Ceiling Definition
- 90th percentile
- Threshold Probabilities
- 8
- 0.38335
- 12
- 0.17775
- 18
- 0.05225
- Completeness
- modeled_components_only
- Position Comparison
- Rank
- 35
- Percentile
- 17.857142857143
- Population
- 42
- Gap To Position Median
- -2.9290725
- Unsupported Components
- 0
- two_point_conversions
- 1
- fumbles_lost
- Explanation
- Short
- 8.6 carries and 1.1 targets; 26% chance of 1+ relevant TD; receptions add 1.0 points each; availability unknown.
- Drivers
- 0
- 8.6 carries and 1.1 targets
- 1
- 26% chance of 1+ relevant TD
- 2
- receptions add 1.0 points each
- 3
- availability unknown
- Causal Boundary
- P10 football draws include only versioned, holdout-validated signal effects. Madden/PCA remains context only.
- Historical 2025
- —
- Lineage
- Model Version
- nfl_p11a_forward_fantasy_v1
- Scoring Version
- pardonme_fantasy_v1
- P10 Content Hash
- d29a6db3011650bc860f83e90a59af749a5be5dfca903fee8080d39d7363e19e
- P10 Model Version
- nfl_p10b_rb_signals_v1
- Draw Transformation
- exact deterministic P10 draws scored component-wise
- P10 Reproducibility
- Seed
- 106640122
- Method
- empirical total opportunities centered on read-only P5; beta-binomial carry/target, catch and TD allocation; conditional empirical yards-per-carry and yards-per-reception
- Simulations
- 20000
- Source Hash
- 1c40547bae9f2c76b91f1f9554e16a06a76f047e053fdb3c4bb2d82e417ab4b7
- Interval Level
- 0.8
- Football Signals
- Changes
- Carries
- -0.87296463835416
- Targets
- -0.42711040291379
- Version
- nfl_p10_football_signals_v1
- Features
- Wopr3
- 0.054000675966478
- Targets3
- 1.3333333333333
- Snap Last
- 0.25
- Air Share3
- -0.0024317740077219
- Snap Mean3
- 0.31666666666667
- Carry Share3
- 0.35113838429622
- Own Carries8
- 29.25
- Own Rush Ypc8
- 4.6239316239316
- Target Share3
- 0.037135278514589
- Own Sack Rate8
- 0.032786885245902
- Air Per Target3
- -0.66666666666667
- Role Continuity
- 1
- Opponent Carries8
- 28.625
- Opponent Rush Ypc8
- 5.0742358078603
- Opportunity Share3
- 0.35176651305684
- Opponent Sack Rate8
- 0.053571428571429
- Model Keys
- 0
- role_RB_carries
- 1
- role_RB_targets
- Target Week
- 10
- Feature Hash
- 383784c520d6a3016c75f09804b502d0f057267e9a0287501cd833f69c192a26
- Artifact Hash
- abe5a601293374a3b9ce2e82747d93685f38da588d2c76877a5ff3e28360ee8b
- Target Season
- 2026
- Missing Policy
- retain baseline for unsupported signal
- Baseline Version
- nfl_p10b_rb_empirical_v3
- Strict Prior Week
- 1
- Historical Validation
- 2013-2022 fit; 2023 tuning; 2024-2025 final proxy-centered draw holdout
- Frozen Parameters
- Era Seasons
- 3
- Rush Td Prior Carries
- 500
- Catch Rate Prior Targets
- 50
- Opportunity Mixture Games
- 4
- Receiving Td Prior Targets
- 100
- Rush Empirical Blend Weight
- 0.5
- Rush Efficiency Prior Carries
- 200
- Carry Share Prior Opportunities
- 50
- Receiving Empirical Blend Weight
- 0.25
- Receiving Efficiency Prior Receptions
- 100
- Parameter Training Cutoff
- 2023
- Source Manifest Hash
- 69f663843030555edb53a105a3c765d967afe021e773915f32468505f2f2f4e9
- Unsupported Components
- 0
- two_point_conversions
- 1
- fumbles_lost
Historical fantasy
PardonMe-derived scoring and usage are not official NFL statistics. Historical floor, ceiling and consistency are backward-looking; rolling, trailing and qualified position comparisons use prior weeks only.
Madden
—EA OVR
Version unavailable · Observed: Unavailable · Team: San Francisco 49ers
EA ratings are supplied by EA; no presentation tiers are used.
Key attributes
EA attributes unavailable.
EA rating history
Career
Coverage: —–—
Team history
2026 · SF · RB · #26
- Player Id
- 2471
- Season Year
- 2026
- Team Abbr
- SF
- Position Code
- RB
- Jersey Number
- 26
- Status Code
- ACT
- First Week
- 1
- Last Week
- 9
- Source
- nflverse
- Source Hash
- bafd1d1673b97fb4a617959e80c21f27ea80db6b66ba2cc2e4771131843b73ad
- Source Observed At
- 2026-11-10 12:15:26
- Last Published At
- 2026-10-15 11:15:38
Role summaries
2026 · SF · 0 supported starts
- Player Id
- 2471
- Season Year
- 2026
- Team Abbr
- SF
- Games With Workload
- 9
- Supported Starts
- 0
- Primary Backup Games
- 0
- Rotational Games
- 8
- Avg Offense Pct
- 0.28750
- Avg Defense Pct
- 0.00000
- Avg Special Teams Pct
- 0.03500
- Latest Role
- unknown
- Latest Week
- 10
- Coverage State
- partial_depth
- Source Hash
- 70443efff0a7f58dffaf14361a5e6ce79dad7136ef97add1766bef3bb6a76457
- Last Published At
- 2026-11-13 11:21:44
Full role history
2026 Week 10 · unknown · offense —
- Player Id
- 2471
- Team Abbr
- SF
- Season Year
- 2026
- Season Type
- REG
- Week Number
- 10
- Game Id
- —
- Position Code
- RB
- Depth Position
- RB
- Formation
- src:4cdce1fb2dd7a42b7cdeea4d
- Depth Rank
- 2
- Derived Role
- unknown
- Starter State
- unknown
- Offense Snaps
- —
- Offense Pct
- —
- Defense Snaps
- —
- Defense Pct
- —
- Special Teams Snaps
- —
- Special Teams Pct
- —
- Confidence
- low
- Evidence Completeness
- depth_only
- Warnings Json
- ["relevant_snap_percentage_unavailable", "no_positive_participation_evidence", "official_depth_only_no_snap_evidence"]
- Source Hash
- 400acf6c9b10f30d0c67b3448c14482f4e5754bd8b45c861a9caad2aebb958b4
- Source Observed At
- 2026-11-13 11:20:54
- Last Published At
- 2026-11-14 11:19:06
2026 Week 9 · rotational · offense 25%
- Player Id
- 2471
- Team Abbr
- SF
- Season Year
- 2026
- Season Type
- REG
- Week Number
- 9
- Game Id
- 2026_09_LV_SF
- Position Code
- RB
- Depth Position
- RB
- Formation
- —
- Depth Rank
- —
- Derived Role
- rotational
- Starter State
- not_supported
- Offense Snaps
- 18
- Offense Pct
- 0.25000
- Defense Snaps
- 0
- Defense Pct
- 0.00000
- Special Teams Snaps
- 4
- Special Teams Pct
- 0.19000
- Confidence
- medium
- Evidence Completeness
- depth_and_snaps
- Warnings Json
- []
- Source Hash
- 2bec70991cf368e657e6b2412de409adcf22eeb80ca8b9ae5ca630c21caa982c
- Source Observed At
- 2026-11-05 07:31:29
- Last Published At
- 2026-11-11 11:18:59
2026 Week 7 · rotational · offense 47%
- Player Id
- 2471
- Team Abbr
- SF
- Season Year
- 2026
- Season Type
- REG
- Week Number
- 7
- Game Id
- 2026_07_SF_ATL
- Position Code
- RB
- Depth Position
- RB
- Formation
- —
- Depth Rank
- —
- Derived Role
- rotational
- Starter State
- not_supported
- Offense Snaps
- 31
- Offense Pct
- 0.47000
- Defense Snaps
- 0
- Defense Pct
- 0.00000
- Special Teams Snaps
- 2
- Special Teams Pct
- 0.09000
- Confidence
- medium
- Evidence Completeness
- depth_and_snaps
- Warnings Json
- []
- Source Hash
- 185394ea6c9bc811ff6a13f6b4d806a4365e3b8a7a18229a2f16e9629357fee3
- Source Observed At
- 2026-10-21 19:57:24
- Last Published At
- 2026-10-28 11:19:27
2026 Week 6 · rotational · offense 23%
- Player Id
- 2471
- Team Abbr
- SF
- Season Year
- 2026
- Season Type
- REG
- Week Number
- 6
- Game Id
- 2026_06_WAS_SF
- Position Code
- RB
- Depth Position
- RB
- Formation
- —
- Depth Rank
- —
- Derived Role
- rotational
- Starter State
- not_supported
- Offense Snaps
- 14
- Offense Pct
- 0.23000
- Defense Snaps
- 0
- Defense Pct
- 0.00000
- Special Teams Snaps
- 0
- Special Teams Pct
- 0.00000
- Confidence
- medium
- Evidence Completeness
- depth_and_snaps
- Warnings Json
- []
- Source Hash
- 0371afd51457ed053e7248b6c8baa421833f0aadb66c4b6ace940cf637256491
- Source Observed At
- 2026-10-15 07:31:12
- Last Published At
- 2026-10-20 17:18:30
2026 Week 5 · rotational · offense 18%
- Player Id
- 2471
- Team Abbr
- SF
- Season Year
- 2026
- Season Type
- REG
- Week Number
- 5
- Game Id
- 2026_05_SF_SEA
- Position Code
- RB
- Depth Position
- RB
- Formation
- —
- Depth Rank
- —
- Derived Role
- rotational
- Starter State
- not_supported
- Offense Snaps
- 11
- Offense Pct
- 0.18000
- Defense Snaps
- 0
- Defense Pct
- 0.00000
- Special Teams Snaps
- 0
- Special Teams Pct
- 0.00000
- Confidence
- medium
- Evidence Completeness
- depth_and_snaps
- Warnings Json
- []
- Source Hash
- 1fcf0434fa62eebe96ffb863de26e2d4e1538be1a64d50894f6579ab556da235
- Source Observed At
- 2026-10-11 11:17:16
- Last Published At
- 2026-10-15 11:21:49
2026 Week 4 · rotational · offense 26%
- Player Id
- 2471
- Team Abbr
- SF
- Season Year
- 2026
- Season Type
- REG
- Week Number
- 4
- Game Id
- 2026_04_DEN_SF
- Position Code
- RB
- Depth Position
- RB
- Formation
- —
- Depth Rank
- —
- Derived Role
- rotational
- Starter State
- not_supported
- Offense Snaps
- 17
- Offense Pct
- 0.26000
- Defense Snaps
- 0
- Defense Pct
- 0.00000
- Special Teams Snaps
- 0
- Special Teams Pct
- 0.00000
- Confidence
- medium
- Evidence Completeness
- depth_and_snaps
- Warnings Json
- []
- Source Hash
- adedc9dc7deb3bc2d499ba81b761ba86f90b80c9c16777bccedffa830f605fa5
- Source Observed At
- 2026-10-01 07:30:48
- Last Published At
- 2026-10-15 11:21:49
2026 Week 3 · rotational · offense 15%
- Player Id
- 2471
- Team Abbr
- SF
- Season Year
- 2026
- Season Type
- REG
- Week Number
- 3
- Game Id
- 2026_03_ARI_SF
- Position Code
- RB
- Depth Position
- RB
- Formation
- —
- Depth Rank
- —
- Derived Role
- rotational
- Starter State
- not_supported
- Offense Snaps
- 8
- Offense Pct
- 0.15000
- Defense Snaps
- 0
- Defense Pct
- 0.00000
- Special Teams Snaps
- 0
- Special Teams Pct
- 0.00000
- Confidence
- medium
- Evidence Completeness
- depth_and_snaps
- Warnings Json
- []
- Source Hash
- c82cddd4793a86880aa3e6f48b65fb66a1c79e89e6ef8ea3f30a19b422de5765
- Source Observed At
- 2026-09-30 23:43:27
- Last Published At
- 2026-10-15 11:21:49
2026 Week 2 · rotational · offense 33%
- Player Id
- 2471
- Team Abbr
- SF
- Season Year
- 2026
- Season Type
- REG
- Week Number
- 2
- Game Id
- 2026_02_MIA_SF
- Position Code
- RB
- Depth Position
- RB
- Formation
- —
- Depth Rank
- —
- Derived Role
- rotational
- Starter State
- not_supported
- Offense Snaps
- 17
- Offense Pct
- 0.33000
- Defense Snaps
- 0
- Defense Pct
- 0.00000
- Special Teams Snaps
- 0
- Special Teams Pct
- 0.00000
- Confidence
- medium
- Evidence Completeness
- depth_and_snaps
- Warnings Json
- []
- Source Hash
- 903ce74477e065c3a97480bdaa42922bfb5afab2626b617bce2c78936c3c23c7
- Source Observed At
- 2026-09-18 16:46:12
- Last Published At
- 2026-10-15 11:21:49
2026 Week 1 · rotational · offense 43%
- Player Id
- 2471
- Team Abbr
- SF
- Season Year
- 2026
- Season Type
- REG
- Week Number
- 1
- Game Id
- 2026_01_SF_LA
- Position Code
- RB
- Depth Position
- RB
- Formation
- —
- Depth Rank
- —
- Derived Role
- rotational
- Starter State
- not_supported
- Offense Snaps
- 28
- Offense Pct
- 0.43000
- Defense Snaps
- 0
- Defense Pct
- 0.00000
- Special Teams Snaps
- 0
- Special Teams Pct
- 0.00000
- Confidence
- medium
- Evidence Completeness
- depth_and_snaps
- Warnings Json
- []
- Source Hash
- ce26cb0c3edab5eb8e7dc8d81bd1a79e80420c16933675501b78a5e027bac2ad
- Source Observed At
- 2026-09-16 16:27:46
- Last Published At
- 2026-10-15 11:21:49
More
Availability detail and history
Unknown · stale · reported 2026-10-11 19:34:59
Injury wording unavailable · prior factual role Rotational · prior-game snap share 26%
- Player Id
- 2471
- Team Id
- 60
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 5
- Game Id
- 10593
- Headline
- No current official observation entered
- Canonical Status
- unknown
- Practice Participation
- unknown
- Game Designation
- unknown
- Inactive Status
- unknown
- Reserve Status
- unknown
- Roster Status
- unknown
- Injury Wording
- —
- Illness Flag
- —
- Report At
- 2026-10-11 19:34:59
- Observed At
- 2026-10-11 19:34:59
- Source Owner
- SEA
- Source Url
- https://www.seahawks.com/team/injury-report
- Freshness State
- stale
- Conflict State
- none
- Unknown State
- 1
- Evidence Completeness
- unknown
- Prior Role
- rotational
- Prior Snap Share
- 0.260000
- Trailing Snap Share
- 0.246667
- Evidence Json
- {"observation_ids": [386943, 386944], "dimension_conflicts": ["practice_participation"]}
- Source Manifest Hash
- 76a3a529b83ae966c3950ab1db3258834e770dd25bafcf0a91136786287b0567
- Derivation Version
- nfl_availability_episode_v4
- Source Published At
- 2026-10-25 16:17:18
- Last Published At
- 2026-10-25 16:17:18
Source: SEA
FULL · 2026-10-11 19:34:59
- Availability Observation Id
- 386944
- Player Id
- 2471
- Team Id
- 60
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 5
- Game Id
- 10593
- Observation Type
- practice
- Canonical Status
- unknown
- Provider Status
- FULL
- Practice Participation
- full
- Game Designation
- unknown
- Inactive Status
- unknown
- Reserve Status
- unknown
- Roster Status
- unknown
- Injury Wording
- —
- Illness Flag
- —
- Source Owner
- SEA
- Source Url
- https://www.seahawks.com/team/injury-report
- Source Published At
- —
- Observed At
- 2026-10-11 19:34:59
- Effective At
- 2026-10-11 19:34:59
- Ingested At
- 2026-10-11 19:35:38
- Verification State
- verified
- Evidence Completeness
- partial
- Warnings Json
- —
- Correction Of Observation Id
- —
- Source Hash
- 6c341c57fb7c540f709e52489e4749b375ac9ad78ad3ad9b4f1068552ad85d5f
- Source Published To Serving At
- 2026-10-12 11:20:44
LIMITED · 2026-10-11 19:34:59
- Availability Observation Id
- 386943
- Player Id
- 2471
- Team Id
- 60
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 5
- Game Id
- 10593
- Observation Type
- practice
- Canonical Status
- unknown
- Provider Status
- LIMITED
- Practice Participation
- limited
- Game Designation
- unknown
- Inactive Status
- unknown
- Reserve Status
- unknown
- Roster Status
- unknown
- Injury Wording
- —
- Illness Flag
- —
- Source Owner
- SEA
- Source Url
- https://www.seahawks.com/team/injury-report
- Source Published At
- —
- Observed At
- 2026-10-11 19:34:59
- Effective At
- 2026-10-11 19:34:59
- Ingested At
- 2026-10-11 19:35:38
- Verification State
- verified
- Evidence Completeness
- partial
- Warnings Json
- —
- Correction Of Observation Id
- —
- Source Hash
- f7e1ac590f81c0f5bbf2892594d9290506595d0e09023ba8cfbbae5984d4fa39
- Source Published To Serving At
- 2026-10-12 11:20:44
FULL · 2026-10-11 19:20:06
- Availability Observation Id
- 386837
- Player Id
- 2471
- Team Id
- 60
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 5
- Game Id
- 10593
- Observation Type
- practice
- Canonical Status
- unknown
- Provider Status
- FULL
- Practice Participation
- full
- Game Designation
- unknown
- Inactive Status
- unknown
- Reserve Status
- unknown
- Roster Status
- unknown
- Injury Wording
- —
- Illness Flag
- —
- Source Owner
- SEA
- Source Url
- https://www.seahawks.com/team/injury-report
- Source Published At
- —
- Observed At
- 2026-10-11 19:20:06
- Effective At
- 2026-10-11 19:20:06
- Ingested At
- 2026-10-11 19:20:44
- Verification State
- verified
- Evidence Completeness
- partial
- Warnings Json
- —
- Correction Of Observation Id
- —
- Source Hash
- 3f8d6c788fe35e2d28a9c7c7679d46b439fe89e1cb1972a9cf5efc6d0f887cfe
- Source Published To Serving At
- 2026-10-12 11:20:44
LIMITED · 2026-10-11 19:20:06
- Availability Observation Id
- 386836
- Player Id
- 2471
- Team Id
- 60
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 5
- Game Id
- 10593
- Observation Type
- practice
- Canonical Status
- unknown
- Provider Status
- LIMITED
- Practice Participation
- limited
- Game Designation
- unknown
- Inactive Status
- unknown
- Reserve Status
- unknown
- Roster Status
- unknown
- Injury Wording
- —
- Illness Flag
- —
- Source Owner
- SEA
- Source Url
- https://www.seahawks.com/team/injury-report
- Source Published At
- —
- Observed At
- 2026-10-11 19:20:06
- Effective At
- 2026-10-11 19:20:06
- Ingested At
- 2026-10-11 19:20:44
- Verification State
- verified
- Evidence Completeness
- partial
- Warnings Json
- —
- Correction Of Observation Id
- —
- Source Hash
- 8e812d1e57c4e6b9dc14c421cdd8b1cf68a0a47a9dd6c9d4f82d010593b54942
- Source Published To Serving At
- 2026-10-12 11:20:44
FULL · 2026-10-11 19:04:59
- Availability Observation Id
- 386612
- Player Id
- 2471
- Team Id
- 60
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 5
- Game Id
- 10593
- Observation Type
- practice
- Canonical Status
- unknown
- Provider Status
- FULL
- Practice Participation
- full
- Game Designation
- unknown
- Inactive Status
- unknown
- Reserve Status
- unknown
- Roster Status
- unknown
- Injury Wording
- —
- Illness Flag
- —
- Source Owner
- SEA
- Source Url
- https://www.seahawks.com/team/injury-report
- Source Published At
- —
- Observed At
- 2026-10-11 19:04:59
- Effective At
- 2026-10-11 19:04:59
- Ingested At
- 2026-10-11 19:05:42
- Verification State
- verified
- Evidence Completeness
- partial
- Warnings Json
- —
- Correction Of Observation Id
- —
- Source Hash
- 42a406d3e612cd8802c58d3b731bdd6c0242f3c86cd8520d6e9a509a728b7266
- Source Published To Serving At
- 2026-10-12 11:20:44
LIMITED · 2026-10-11 19:04:59
- Availability Observation Id
- 386611
- Player Id
- 2471
- Team Id
- 60
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 5
- Game Id
- 10593
- Observation Type
- practice
- Canonical Status
- unknown
- Provider Status
- LIMITED
- Practice Participation
- limited
- Game Designation
- unknown
- Inactive Status
- unknown
- Reserve Status
- unknown
- Roster Status
- unknown
- Injury Wording
- —
- Illness Flag
- —
- Source Owner
- SEA
- Source Url
- https://www.seahawks.com/team/injury-report
- Source Published At
- —
- Observed At
- 2026-10-11 19:04:59
- Effective At
- 2026-10-11 19:04:59
- Ingested At
- 2026-10-11 19:05:42
- Verification State
- verified
- Evidence Completeness
- partial
- Warnings Json
- —
- Correction Of Observation Id
- —
- Source Hash
- 61bef6641ae3f8b2c0f137be8f9cb08493f11dca5ccf2ef20e17c567ab56fc1e
- Source Published To Serving At
- 2026-10-12 11:20:44
FULL · 2026-10-11 18:50:01
- Availability Observation Id
- 386484
- Player Id
- 2471
- Team Id
- 60
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 5
- Game Id
- 10593
- Observation Type
- practice
- Canonical Status
- unknown
- Provider Status
- FULL
- Practice Participation
- full
- Game Designation
- unknown
- Inactive Status
- unknown
- Reserve Status
- unknown
- Roster Status
- unknown
- Injury Wording
- —
- Illness Flag
- —
- Source Owner
- SEA
- Source Url
- https://www.seahawks.com/team/injury-report
- Source Published At
- —
- Observed At
- 2026-10-11 18:50:01
- Effective At
- 2026-10-11 18:50:01
- Ingested At
- 2026-10-11 18:50:13
- Verification State
- verified
- Evidence Completeness
- partial
- Warnings Json
- —
- Correction Of Observation Id
- —
- Source Hash
- e5f4deb2a4109567a8df5b65942ae8692db5d98eef94dfea28cbf16793b06af3
- Source Published To Serving At
- 2026-10-12 11:20:44
LIMITED · 2026-10-11 18:50:01
- Availability Observation Id
- 386483
- Player Id
- 2471
- Team Id
- 60
- Season Year
- 2026
- Week Number
- 5
- Game Id
- 10593
- Observation Type
- practice
- Canonical Status
- unknown
- Provider Status
- LIMITED
- Practice Participation
- limited
- Game Designation
- unknown
- Inactive Status
- unknown
- Reserve Status
- unknown
- Roster Status
- unknown
- Injury Wording
- —
- Illness Flag
- —
- Source Owner
- SEA
- Source Url
- https://www.seahawks.com/team/injury-report
- Source Published At
- —
- Observed At
- 2026-10-11 18:50:01
- Effective At
- 2026-10-11 18:50:01
- Ingested At
- 2026-10-11 18:50:13
- Verification State
- verified
- Evidence Completeness
- partial
- Warnings Json
- —
- Correction Of Observation Id
- —
- Source Hash
- ebf58d02bf619eaf7b2e27191789625b42654a06442bff4197768a53d2eea2ed
- Source Published To Serving At
- 2026-10-12 11:20:44
Advanced distributions and matchup context
Backfield distribution
fallback_distribution. Suppressed or unavailable values are not projected as zero.
- Game Id
- 10546
- Player Id
- 2471
- Team Id
- 60
- Opponent Team Id
- 52
- Position Code
- RB
- Model Version
- nfl_p10b_rb_empirical_v3
- Evidence Tier
- position_current_era_fallback
- Confidence
- Insufficient Evidence
- Distribution Json
- {"state": "fallback_distribution", "carries": {"mean": 10.41545, "median": 10.0, "interval_80": {"lower": 4.0, "upper": 17.0}}, "targets": {"mean": 2.0713, "median": 2.0, "interval_80": {"lower": 0.0, "upper": 4.0}}, "total_tds": {"mean": 0.39525, "median": 0.0, "interval_80": {"lower": 0.0, "upper": 1.0}, "probabilities": {"0": 0.6868, "1": 0.24565, "1+": 0.3132, "2+": 0.06755}}, "receptions": {"mean": 1.6374, "median": 1.0, "interval_80": {"lower": 0.0, "upper": 4.0}}, "rushing_tds": {"mean": 0.32895, "median": 0.0, "interval_80": {"lower": 0.0, "upper": 1.0}, "probabilities": {"0": 0.7304, "1": 0.21945, "1+": 0.2696, "2+": 0.05015}}, "opportunities": {"mean": 12.48675, "median": 13.0, "interval_80": {"lower": 5.0, "upper": 21.0}}, "receiving_tds": {"mean": 0.0663, "median": 0.0, "interval_80": {"lower": 0.0, "upper": 0.0}, "probabilities": {"0": 0.93715, "1": 0.05945, "1+": 0.06285, "2+": 0.0034}}, "rushing_yards": {"mean": 45.07895, "median": 43.0, "interval_80": {"lower": 16.0, "upper": 77.0}}, "receiving_yards": {"mean": 11.9994, "median": 8.0, "interval_80": {"lower": 0.0, "upper": 27.0}}}
- Evidence Json
- {"current_truth": {"role": {"state": "supported", "depth_rank": 2, "source_hash": "e733c717581d2a3484fa508fa459ba9062e63520f5c4bc4a0f9c042aea58b440", "team_match_state": "matched"}, "availability": {"state": "unknown", "reason": "current_availability_unknown_projection_retained", "values": {"roster_status": "unknown", "reserve_status": "unknown", "inactive_status": "unknown", "canonical_status": "unknown", "game_designation": "unknown"}, "conflict_state": "none", "freshness_state": "unknown", "game_scope_state": "old_or_unknown", "team_match_state": "unknown", "serve_distribution": true}, "availability_source_manifest_hash": null}, "individualized": false, "unknown_inputs": ["routes (not retained)", "historical snap share joined to nflverse player identity", "validated causal P9 run-defense coefficient", "multi-season red-zone/inside-10/inside-5 player opportunity", "true end-zone targets"], "fallback_reason": "insufficient_player_history", "player_rb_games": 1, "projection_basis": "evidence_backed_individualized_projection", "p9_run_environment": [], "meaningful_definition": ">=5 carries+targets and >=15% of team RB opportunities", "p5_opportunity_center": {"value": 12.106695338497, "contract": "accepted P5 external carries+targets center; read-only", "workload_target": "opportunities"}, "p9_scoring_opportunity_context": {"season": 2025, "model_effect": "none; retained one-season context is not used as an unvalidated multiplier", "inside_5_carries": 0, "red_zone_carries": 0, "red_zone_targets": 0, "inside_10_carries": 0, "true_end_zone_targets": "Unknown"}}
- Reproducibility Json
- {"seed": 105460122, "method": "empirical total opportunities centered on read-only P5; beta-binomial carry/target, catch and TD allocation; conditional empirical yards-per-carry and yards-per-reception", "simulations": 20000, "source_hash": "26e2ec0df8bba68a16a7a8354060676300e098e004e7d77c8baa37e4441599c1", "interval_level": 0.8, "frozen_parameters": {"era_seasons": 3, "rush_td_prior_carries": 500, "catch_rate_prior_targets": 50, "opportunity_mixture_games": 4, "receiving_td_prior_targets": 100, "rush_empirical_blend_weight": 0.5, "rush_efficiency_prior_carries": 200, "carry_share_prior_opportunities": 50, "receiving_empirical_blend_weight": 0.25, "receiving_efficiency_prior_receptions": 100}, "parameter_training_cutoff": 2023}
- Content Hash
- f8ccf41eb433c7b8aaf8b73c942caa9f409d525a693a93ea9361a1df884e215d
- Observed At
- 2026-09-12 07:30:04
- Generated At
- 2026-09-17 23:50:58
- Published At
- 2026-09-17 23:50:58
- Team Abbr
- SF
- Opponent Abbr
- MIA
- Distribution
- State
- fallback_distribution
- Carries
- Mean
- 10.41545
- Median
- 10
- Interval 80
- Lower
- 4
- Upper
- 17
- Targets
- Mean
- 2.0713
- Median
- 2
- Interval 80
- Lower
- 0
- Upper
- 4
- Total Tds
- Mean
- 0.39525
- Median
- 0
- Interval 80
- Lower
- 0
- Upper
- 1
- Probabilities
- 0
- 0.6868
- 1
- 0.24565
- 1+
- 0.3132
- 2+
- 0.06755
- Receptions
- Mean
- 1.6374
- Median
- 1
- Interval 80
- Lower
- 0
- Upper
- 4
- Rushing Tds
- Mean
- 0.32895
- Median
- 0
- Interval 80
- Lower
- 0
- Upper
- 1
- Probabilities
- 0
- 0.7304
- 1
- 0.21945
- 1+
- 0.2696
- 2+
- 0.05015
- Opportunities
- Mean
- 12.48675
- Median
- 13
- Interval 80
- Lower
- 5
- Upper
- 21
- Receiving Tds
- Mean
- 0.0663
- Median
- 0
- Interval 80
- Lower
- 0
- Upper
- 0
- Probabilities
- 0
- 0.93715
- 1
- 0.05945
- 1+
- 0.06285
- 2+
- 0.0034
- Rushing Yards
- Mean
- 45.07895
- Median
- 43
- Interval 80
- Lower
- 16
- Upper
- 77
- Receiving Yards
- Mean
- 11.9994
- Median
- 8
- Interval 80
- Lower
- 0
- Upper
- 27
- Evidence
- Current Truth
- Role
- State
- supported
- Depth Rank
- 2
- Source Hash
- e733c717581d2a3484fa508fa459ba9062e63520f5c4bc4a0f9c042aea58b440
- Team Match State
- matched
- Availability
- State
- unknown
- Reason
- current_availability_unknown_projection_retained
- Values
- Roster Status
- unknown
- Reserve Status
- unknown
- Inactive Status
- unknown
- Canonical Status
- unknown
- Game Designation
- unknown
- Conflict State
- none
- Freshness State
- unknown
- Game Scope State
- old_or_unknown
- Team Match State
- unknown
- Serve Distribution
- 1
- Availability Source Manifest Hash
- —
- Individualized
- Unknown Inputs
- 0
- routes (not retained)
- 1
- historical snap share joined to nflverse player identity
- 2
- validated causal P9 run-defense coefficient
- 3
- multi-season red-zone/inside-10/inside-5 player opportunity
- 4
- true end-zone targets
- Fallback Reason
- insufficient_player_history
- Player Rb Games
- 1
- Projection Basis
- evidence_backed_individualized_projection
- P9 Run Environment
- Meaningful Definition
- >=5 carries+targets and >=15% of team RB opportunities
- P5 Opportunity Center
- Value
- 12.106695338497
- Contract
- accepted P5 external carries+targets center; read-only
- Workload Target
- opportunities
- P9 Scoring Opportunity Context
- Season
- 2025
- Model Effect
- none; retained one-season context is not used as an unvalidated multiplier
- Inside 5 Carries
- 0
- Red Zone Carries
- 0
- Red Zone Targets
- 0
- Inside 10 Carries
- 0
- True End Zone Targets
- Unknown
- Reproducibility
- Seed
- 105460122
- Method
- empirical total opportunities centered on read-only P5; beta-binomial carry/target, catch and TD allocation; conditional empirical yards-per-carry and yards-per-reception
- Simulations
- 20000
- Source Hash
- 26e2ec0df8bba68a16a7a8354060676300e098e004e7d77c8baa37e4441599c1
- Interval Level
- 0.8
- Frozen Parameters
- Era Seasons
- 3
- Rush Td Prior Carries
- 500
- Catch Rate Prior Targets
- 50
- Opportunity Mixture Games
- 4
- Receiving Td Prior Targets
- 100
- Rush Empirical Blend Weight
- 0.5
- Rush Efficiency Prior Carries
- 200
- Carry Share Prior Opportunities
- 50
- Receiving Empirical Blend Weight
- 0.25
- Receiving Efficiency Prior Receptions
- 100
- Parameter Training Cutoff
- 2023
Unit, passing and scoring context
- Unit Matchups
- Passing Matchups
- Scoring Opportunities
- Team
- Player
- Matchup Context
- State
- unknown
- Game Id
- 10664
- Position
- RB
- Role
- State
- supported_current_official_depth
- Label
- RB2
- Depth Rank
- 2
- Boundary
- Official depth is role context; it does not establish starter status, snap share or workload share.
- Availability
- State
- unknown
- Headline
- —
- Boundary
- Unknown, not-yet-available and reserve-unknown are not healthy, active, available or reduced-usage conclusions.
- Prior Role
- State
- available
- Offense Pct
- 0.25
- Derived Role
- primary_backup
- Evidence Label
- same_season_prior_week_observed_role
- Boundary
- Backward-looking observed workload does not establish current workload or starter status.
- Projection
- Basis
- evidence_backed_individualized_projection
- Boundary
- P9 matchup environments explain context only and do not change the accepted P5 player projection.
- Unit
- —
- Passing
- —
- Scoring Opportunity
- Player
- State
- unknown
- Reason
- No supported prior scoring-opportunity evidence
- Team Matchup
- State
- unknown
- Reason
- No supported prior team scoring-opportunity evidence
- Boundary
- Prior 2025 scoring-opportunity evidence is explanation only and does not change P5 or calculate touchdown probability.
- Individual Coverage
- unknown_team_environment_is_not_individual_coverage_evidence
- Replacement Effect
- unknown_not_inferred_from_depth_or_availability
- Primary Context
- 0
- run
- Broader Context
- 0
- passing
- Individual Blocking Assignment
- unknown_team_run_environment_is_not_individual_assignment_evidence
- Boundary
- Team run environment does not infer carry share, target share, starter status, snap share, blocking assignment or replacement effect.
These are explanation-only values. Pressure, individual assignments, coverage and replacement effects remain unavailable unless retained above.
Sources & Methodology
Official depth, provider box scores, governed fantasy serving, EA ratings, PardonMe projections, matchup context and market comparisons retain source lineage. Markets are not model inputs.
Methodology: P5 is read-only workload and fantasy serving. P10 distributions are independent, governed models. P9 context and Madden analysis explain rather than adjust them. Missing, insufficient, conflicting, stale, or unsupported evidence remains unavailable.
Provenance: nflverse season totals, provider game evidence, official availability/depth, EA ratings and dated observations are shown with their retained fields above.