Ted Hurst III

No current official observation entered. Missing information is unknown; it does not mean healthy, active, available, or unrestricted.

Receiving distribution

fallback_distribution. Suppressed or unavailable values are not projected as zero.

Game Id

10604

Player Id

2672

Team Id

62

Opponent Team Id

59

Position Code

WR

Model Version

nfl_p10c_wrte_signals_v1

Parameter Version

nfl_p10c_wrte_signals_params_v1

Evidence Tier

position_current_era_fallback

Confidence

Insufficient Evidence

Distribution Json

{"state": "fallback_distribution", "targets": {"mean": 4.83965, "median": 4.0, "interval_80": {"lower": 3.0, "upper": 8.0}}, "receptions": {"mean": 2.92555, "median": 3.0, "interval_80": {"lower": 1.0, "upper": 6.0}}, "receiving_tds": {"mean": 0.2832, "median": 0.0, "interval_80": {"lower": 0.0, "upper": 1.0}, "probabilities": {"0": 0.75625, "1": 0.20965, "1+": 0.24375, "2+": 0.0341}}, "receiving_yards": {"mean": 41.96585, "median": 41.0, "interval_80": {"lower": 13.0, "upper": 84.0}}}

Evidence Json

{"routes": {"state": "unsupported", "reason": "routes are not retained in the governed historical weekly evidence"}, "p9i_context": [{"pca1_index": null, "matchup_code": "qb_vs_secondary", "model_effect": "explanation_only", "equal_z_index": null}, {"pca1_index": null, "matchup_code": "receiving_vs_secondary", "model_effect": "explanation_only", "equal_z_index": null}], "current_truth": {"role": {"state": "unknown", "depth_rank": null, "source_hash": null, "team_match_state": "missing_current_team_role"}, "availability": {"state": "unknown", "reason": "current_availability_unknown_projection_retained", "values": {"roster_status": "unknown", "reserve_status": "unknown", "inactive_status": "unknown", "canonical_status": "unknown", "game_designation": "unknown"}, "conflict_state": "none", "freshness_state": "unknown", "game_scope_state": "old_or_unknown", "team_match_state": "unknown", "serve_distribution": true}, "availability_source_manifest_hash": null}, "individualized": false, "unknown_inputs": ["routes", "individual CB assignments", "validated causal P9/P9I receiving coefficient"], "fallback_reason": "insufficient_player_history", "football_signals": {"p5_effect": "none", "model_keys": ["receiving_WR_receiving_tds_1plus", "receiving_WR_receiving_yards", "receiving_WR_receptions", "role_WR_targets"], "feature_hash": "01fe11e31ee4865ba6a7e5e11896bd704ac7aacd67f99cb11cdb6c21402cecdf", "added_signals": ["receiving", "role"], "madden_effect": "none; context only"}, "p5_target_center": {"value": 4.801431328847, "contract": "accepted P5 target center; read-only", "workload_target": "targets"}, "projection_basis": "evidence_backed_individualized_projection", "madden_model_effect": "none; explanation-only", "meaningful_definition": ">=1 target and >=3% of team WR/TE targets", "player_meaningful_games": 4}

Reproducibility Json

{"seed": 106040139, "method": "empirical targets centered on read-only P5; conditional beta-binomial receptions and TD; nonnegative blended posterior/empirical yards per reception", "source_hash": "d4b3bf97483c4e5b6c64d926ba1a8eeb5397fe4777027f2a24cbec4017ff4ba7", "interval_level": 0.8, "football_signals": {"changes": {"targets": -0.4254223407480064, "receptions": -0.08513070630518663, "receiving_yards": -0.886938742251734, "receiving_tds_1plus": 0.026986333868701622}, "version": "nfl_p10_football_signals_v1", "features": {"wopr3": 0.3847738585191933, "targets3": 4.333333333333333, "snap_last": 0.46, "air_share3": 0.254519717013052, "snap_mean3": 0.5366666666666666, "carry_share3": 0.0, "own_carries8": 28.375, "own_rush_ypc8": 4.524229074889868, "target_share3": 0.13774003774003757, "own_sack_rate8": 0.0898876404494382, "air_per_target3": 17.793650793650794, "role_continuity": 1.0, "opponent_carries8": 24.0, "opponent_rush_ypc8": 3.890625, "opportunity_share3": 0.17346153846153847, "opponent_sack_rate8": 0.06985294117647059}, "model_keys": ["receiving_WR_receiving_tds_1plus", "receiving_WR_receiving_yards", "receiving_WR_receptions", "role_WR_targets"], "target_week": 6, "feature_hash": "01fe11e31ee4865ba6a7e5e11896bd704ac7aacd67f99cb11cdb6c21402cecdf", "artifact_hash": "abe5a601293374a3b9ce2e82747d93685f38da588d2c76877a5ff3e28360ee8b", "target_season": 2026, "missing_policy": "retain baseline for unsupported signal", "baseline_version": "nfl_p10c_wrte_empirical_v1", "strict_prior_week": true, "historical_validation": "2013-2022 fit; 2023 tuning; 2024-2025 final proxy-centered draw holdout"}, "simulation_draws": 20000, "frozen_parameters": {"era_seasons": 2, "td_prior_targets": 100, "catch_prior_targets": 25, "target_mixture_games": 2, "efficiency_empirical_blend": 0.0, "efficiency_prior_receptions": 10}, "parameter_version": "nfl_p10c_wrte_params_v1", "parameter_selection_season": 2023}

Content Hash

29597f8444d7e0f7ca9640f8a3b9de93483e24e22a9bef482043408646e9bd0e

Observed At

2026-10-13 11:28:22

Generated At

2026-10-15 11:34:26

Published At

2026-10-15 11:34:26

Team Abbr

TB

Opponent Abbr

PIT

Distribution

State

fallback_distribution

Targets

Mean

4.83965

Median

4

Interval 80

Lower

3

Upper

8

Receptions

Mean

2.92555

Median

3

Interval 80

Lower

1

Upper

6

Receiving Tds

Mean

0.2832

Median

0

Interval 80

Lower

0

Upper

1

Probabilities

0

0.75625

1

0.20965

1+

0.24375

2+

0.0341

Receiving Yards

Mean

41.96585

Median

41

Interval 80

Lower

13

Upper

84

Evidence

Routes

State

unsupported

Reason

routes are not retained in the governed historical weekly evidence

P9i Context

0

Pca1 Index

—

Matchup Code

qb_vs_secondary

Model Effect

explanation_only

Equal Z Index

—

1

Pca1 Index

—

Matchup Code

receiving_vs_secondary

Model Effect

explanation_only

Equal Z Index

—

Current Truth

Role

State

unknown

Depth Rank

—

Source Hash

—

Team Match State

missing_current_team_role

Availability

State

unknown

Reason

current_availability_unknown_projection_retained

Values

Roster Status

unknown

Reserve Status

unknown

Inactive Status

unknown

Canonical Status

unknown

Game Designation

unknown

Conflict State

none

Freshness State

unknown

Game Scope State

old_or_unknown

Team Match State

unknown

Serve Distribution

1

Availability Source Manifest Hash

—

Individualized

Unknown Inputs

0

routes

1

individual CB assignments

2

validated causal P9/P9I receiving coefficient

Fallback Reason

insufficient_player_history

Football Signals

P5 Effect

none

Model Keys

0

receiving_WR_receiving_tds_1plus

1

receiving_WR_receiving_yards

2

receiving_WR_receptions

3

role_WR_targets

Feature Hash

01fe11e31ee4865ba6a7e5e11896bd704ac7aacd67f99cb11cdb6c21402cecdf

Added Signals

0

receiving

1

role

Madden Effect

none; context only

P5 Target Center

Value

4.801431328847

Contract

accepted P5 target center; read-only

Workload Target

targets

Projection Basis

evidence_backed_individualized_projection

Madden Model Effect

none; explanation-only

Meaningful Definition

>=1 target and >=3% of team WR/TE targets

Player Meaningful Games

4

Reproducibility

Seed

106040139

Method

empirical targets centered on read-only P5; conditional beta-binomial receptions and TD; nonnegative blended posterior/empirical yards per reception

Source Hash

d4b3bf97483c4e5b6c64d926ba1a8eeb5397fe4777027f2a24cbec4017ff4ba7

Interval Level

0.8

Football Signals

Changes

Targets

-0.42542234074801

Receptions

-0.085130706305187

Receiving Yards

-0.88693874225173

Receiving Tds 1plus

0.026986333868702

Version

nfl_p10_football_signals_v1

Features

Wopr3

0.38477385851919

Targets3

4.3333333333333

Snap Last

0.46

Air Share3

0.25451971701305

Snap Mean3

0.53666666666667

Carry Share3

0

Own Carries8

28.375

Own Rush Ypc8

4.5242290748899

Target Share3

0.13774003774004

Own Sack Rate8

0.089887640449438

Air Per Target3

17.793650793651

Role Continuity

1

Opponent Carries8

24

Opponent Rush Ypc8

3.890625

Opportunity Share3

0.17346153846154

Opponent Sack Rate8

0.069852941176471

Model Keys

0

receiving_WR_receiving_tds_1plus

1

receiving_WR_receiving_yards

2

receiving_WR_receptions

3

role_WR_targets

Target Week

6

Feature Hash

01fe11e31ee4865ba6a7e5e11896bd704ac7aacd67f99cb11cdb6c21402cecdf

Artifact Hash

abe5a601293374a3b9ce2e82747d93685f38da588d2c76877a5ff3e28360ee8b

Target Season

2026

Missing Policy

retain baseline for unsupported signal

Baseline Version

nfl_p10c_wrte_empirical_v1

Strict Prior Week

1

Historical Validation

2013-2022 fit; 2023 tuning; 2024-2025 final proxy-centered draw holdout

Simulation Draws

20000

Frozen Parameters

Era Seasons

2

Td Prior Targets

100

Catch Prior Targets

25

Target Mixture Games

2

Efficiency Empirical Blend

0

Efficiency Prior Receptions

10

Parameter Version

nfl_p10c_wrte_params_v1

Parameter Selection Season

2023

Unit, passing and scoring context

Unit Matchups

Passing Matchups

Scoring Opportunities

Matchup Context

—

These are explanation-only values. Pressure, individual assignments, coverage and replacement effects remain unavailable unless retained above.

Official depth, provider box scores, governed fantasy serving, EA ratings, PardonMe projections, matchup context and market comparisons retain source lineage. Markets are not model inputs.

Methodology: P5 is read-only workload and fantasy serving. P10 distributions are independent, governed models. P9 context and Madden analysis explain rather than adjust them. Missing, insufficient, conflicting, stale, or unsupported evidence remains unavailable.

Provenance: nflverse season totals, provider game evidence, official availability/depth, EA ratings and dated observations are shown with their retained fields above.